Real Rates and Gold
Another way to look at Real Rates is by looking at the difference between TIP (Treasury Inflation-Protected securities) and SHY (1-3 years Bond Yield).
When the diff. is positive you have Inflation and as you probably know, gold likes inflation.
Looking at TIP-SHY compare to Gold, each time we have divergence, gold wins … :).
TIP has potentially priced a top on the 2019 aggressive rally that started last with last November's bottom. 4H is already pulling back STOCHRSI = 8.271, STOCH = 41.432). The Golden cross took place in March and the MA50 has been acting as a Support since then. Based on the last two occurrences, the price should now consolidate around the 1D MA50 before making a...
In "Emerging Markets Lead U.S. Inflation," it was pointed out that emerging market equities (EEM) act as a leading indicator to U.S. inflation by an average of 6.5 months. In 2018, emerging markets peaked in January, and U.S. inflation saw its multi-year high roll over.
In higher inflation environments, capital inflows to emerging markets primarily due to the...
No biggie in terms of return but super safe instrument with a very high probability of an uptrend at some point in the future. Inflation is picking back up and TIPS will have to climb back up. Also a nice yield for the buy-and-hold investors.
An instrument often disregarded because of it's lack of volatility , but, a great way to diversify and secure a portfolio, especially if not fully invested. TIPS (iShares Inflation-Protected Securities) is getting battered due to a high-dollar and positive sentiment over the economy, but, it remains a safe-haven for money and a hedge against inflation . Current...
Inflation protected treasuries used to be well correlating to Gold and GDX... Till last December. We now see another drop in TIP with the reasonable probability that this time GDX and Gold move back again to correlate. GDX Target of 19 is reasonable and Gold could drop to sub 1200 Region.
RSI is around 50, MACD is still negative. The price itself is in the twilight zone but it will have to break out or break down. Need to watch this closely as it has definite implication for asset allocation.