Just look at Thomson reuters crb index and the probability that the dollar is bottoming. Barron's article points to everyone being bullish on inflation trade and boat is tipping to one side decidedly. we could see an uptick from ST oversold condition to con't a little bit, but I expect that commodites have topped for now and will consolidate for a while before...
Keep an eye on the relative strength of TIPS vs IEF as a measure of inflation expectations. Watching both real and nominal interest rates can be helpful in assessing future prospects for commodities and other real assets.
Trapping Silver/TIP ratio between the descending trend, flat 30wk SMA, Inclining 30D SMA. Ascending stoch with no sign of stopping.. The most coiled spring I have seen all day.
Honestly surprised at the accuracy of this Arc.
Tips go based on real rates and speculative forces have pushed the long end of the curve extremely far. Although counter to what most think we're in a deflationary cycle. Tlt is needing a catalyst to cause mayhem and question the FED's credibility. Powell will likely get fired this time
TIPS (tips treasury inflation protected securities)
TLT (Long Term Treasuries)
TIPS/TLT ratio indicates the markets fear for inflation. This ratio is currently coming up against long-term
resistance. This is a potential area of reversal or pause. This move coincides with a long term resistance
area in the CRB index (commodities).
A breakout here would be very...
In the second part of my leading indicator set, namely, TIPS, TLT, VIX and USD futures /DX...
TIPS is giving an early warning of a sharp dip.
TLT has no indication of a build up in bond demand, but in fact has a gap down bond dumping. Do watch this gap closely, as a close of the gap might signal a reversal.
VIX is not yes bullish despite a recent episodic spike....
GOLD/TIP ratio has taken some noise out of the ver emotional Gold chart, zooming out a little to 3d we can start to look a little more rationally.
The chart speaks for itself, I have raised some cash in the hopes of repositioning on more silver over gold (though gold is the barometer for the wider PM market).
I will look to scale in over a few weeks where...
Monthly chart removes noise, we could breach the arch to form a handleultimately connecting with the 36mo/3yr EMA, or continue to hug the arch, either is bullish.
The overall picture for gold remains bullish. Zoom out. Chill out.
More evidence gold is in a "fear" area. Can the bull era really be over? Which of charts do you consult most, when doubt starts to infuse your thoughts? Share the link! #gold #silver $gld $slv #fintwit