Another dip coming? Buy the strength, insteadThe current price action is very similar to that in May/June 2025 (see yellow rectangular box in the charts).
In May, the price started to finally recover from April's bottom. It started to move above the major support/resistance line (purple line in the chart) that was forming a massive cup and handle pattern, but it ende up to be a fake out and the price started to move to the downside again. The real recovery started after the price dropped to the unmitigated fair value gap (blue rectangular box). I am seeing a very similar set up in the current price action.
On last Friday, the price aggressively dropped to the same major support/resistance line (purple line) . The price held that level and spectacularly bounced up on weekend. It was the great buy the dip opportunity, but I had a feeling that there would be another deeper dip to follow.
The reason for that is that higher time momentum indicators were incredibly bearish and it didn't give me any sense of a V-shape recovery. Also a skeptical side of me makes me think that when there is such a clear bounce at the key area, it becomes so obvious where people place S/L (just under Friday's wick). If I were a market maker, I would definitely try to push the price down to take all the liquidity out.
What I am seeing in the charts:
Daily:
Both RSI and MACD are in the bear zone and pointing to the downside.
Stochastic indicator formed positive divergence, but Stochastic is more reactive and when the direction of the stochastic is contradicting RSI and MACD, it is almost always a corrective move.
EMA200 is cutting across three candles. When EMA200 is dead horizontal and sitting on the candles, EMA200 works like a magnet. The price tends to oscillate until strong momentum builds up to push the price to one direction.
4H:
When you see the price in the 4H chart, it bounced up to Fib 0.618 level and EMA 200 (proper pull back) and now it is starting to move to the downside.
But the most important thing is that there is a cluster of unmitigated fair value gap in the $135-$155 zone (orange rectangular block). It takes a lot for the price to move to that level, however, yesterday's daily candle in both SP500 and Nasdaq is trapped inside Friday's massive bear candle. If traditional market starts to break down, Solana will definitely fall further.
Stochastics formed negative divergence and started to roll to the downside.
MACD is still in the best zone and starting to lose bullish momentum.
RSI slow MA line is still in the bear zone and RSI line is already rolling to the downside.
Conclusions:
It is not a bad zone to nibble, but definitely not the time to open a leveraged position!!
It is better to miss the absolutely bottom and buy the strength.
Good luck !
