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Soybeanoil

Crude Palm Oil’s underperformanceThis chart caught our attention recently. The Crude Palm Oil – Soybean Oil Spread (in USD per Metric Ton) is trading close to an all-time high now. This spells trading opportunity for us as Palm Oil and Soybean Oil are generally considered substitute products, which means, at a large enough price difference, buyers may hop over to buy the cheaper one. Eventually closing the price gap back to its historical mean. Further comparison of Palm Oil against its other substitute, the European Low Sulphur Gasoil Financial Futures, also shows the spread between these products near the high. A price comparison among the 3 products, Palm Oil, European low Sulphur Gasoil and Soybean Oil underscores this price disparity even clearer. The prices of the 3 products have generally trended together, up until July 2022 when Palm Oil started to underperform. Stepping back into the macro side, some potential tailwinds for Crude Palm Oil include; 1) The reopening of China, which would increase the demand for palm oil from the world’s 2nd largest importer of the product. 2) Biofuel Mandates, which would put higher demand pressure on Palm Oil. 3) Slowing production growth in palm oil could lead to supply-demand imbalances, pushing palm oil higher as supply falters. One way to trade this price divergence would be to short the Soybean Oil – Palm Oil spread. This trade can be set up by selling 1 Soybean Oil Futures and buying 1 USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Futures. However, do note that in such a set-up, the position is not fully ‘hedged’ as the contract units are different, 1 Soybean Oil Futures has a contract unit of 60,000 Pounds (~27.21 metric tons) while 1 Crude Palm Oil Futures is for 25 metric tons. Another option would be to trade the exchange listed Crude Palm Oil – European Low Sulphur Gasoil Spread (POG) which handles the construction of the spread and is financially settled, removing delivery risk. While it’s hard to ‘call’ the top, such price divergence provides interesting opportunities that we leverage if risk is managed properly. These trade set-ups allow us to express the view that Palm Oil’s underperformance will be closed, either by Palm oil catching up with its substitutes or if its substitutes fall in prices. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Sources www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com jakartaglobe.id oec.world
CME:CPO1!Short
by inspirante
SOYBEAN OIL // long term scenariosI don't know anything about Soybean Oil, but I watch the price that shows everything I need to know. This is quite a long term one since it's the weekly, but it's so beautiful! Although the primary trend is still long, market participants printed a nice impulse wave on the way down. This last couple of slow waves make up a correction of the impulse wave while crawling up, and price has just tested the last weekly south breakout. From here, the break of this countertrend takes aim at this market , shorts will be ready to jump in. An early sign happens first with the break of the last weekly north breakout, but the second one is better. If price reaches it, be patient. It may slow down there, even make a small countertrend, but a break of this zone can take the price all the way to the next weekly north breakout, that's happen to be close to the target fibo 138.2 The early sign becomes valid only when this week's closing makes the breakout a breakout (higher than the previous high). The countertrend is valid at the moment, but the daily printed a nice shooting star... Thanks for reading my analysis!🤘🏽 Trade safe and let me know what you think! ⚪️⚫️ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. WE JUST REACT! Remember that trading is a business. SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion! ----------------------------------------------------------
CBOT:ZL1!
by TheMarketFlow
1
How do we ride through the selloff storm?Joining a global commodities rout, Soybean Oil had a rough time in the past 2 weeks, tumbling close to 22%. The move precipitated after breaking the 6-month uptrend and has struggled to find support until now. After bouncing off the $65 support level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, prices seem to have found a floor, ready to make the next leg upwards. Zooming out to the daily candles, we see Relative Strength Index (RSI) deeply oversold, with only 2 other occasions since 2015 where the RSI reached such levels. One was in 2015 and the other one in 2020.The 2015 instance was followed a 50% price increase from the low of the RSI and the 2020 one was followed by a massive 196% price increase. The sharp selloff, strong support levels, and historical precedence allow us to favor the long side for Soybean Oil. Entry at 66.87, stops at 58.3. Target at 78.9. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by inspirante
Dining out soon?China, one of the largest consumer of soybean oil, has tapered its demand for the edible oil due to COVID-related control measures over the past few months. With new cases falling and lockdown for Shanghai expected to be lifted soon, we see positive demand drivers on the horizon for soybean oil. Restaurants are among the largest consumers of the oil. As consumers resume their normal consumption patterns and dining out becomes the norm again, it’s easy to see the impact on demand. Looking at the charts, we see a falling wedge pattern since April (where prices make lower highs and lower lows) which generally indicates an upside breakout could be near. On a longer timeframe, we are close to the 6-month uptrend line, where prices have bounced off in the past. Additionally the $78 resistance level provides us with further confidence that prices are likely to remain supported at the current levels before making a jump higher. As demand from the world’s largest consumer of soybean oil revives and technical levels remain intact, we expect more upside from here! Staggered entry at 79.25 and 78.25 with stops below 77.25 and targets at 84 and 87.60. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by inspirante
1
Descending Triangle on Soybean Oil, Target at 3755Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 4-Hour Chart. The commodity soybean oil (SOYUSD) is in a descending triangle setup pattern. The resistance line is seen with lower highs on 7200 and 6495 respectively. The support line is observed around 5450. A breakdown in support will take SOYUSD towards 3755. A negation of this pattern will be seen if the commodity breaks above the resistance trend line, above 6490. Soybean Oil is in a sell mode as it approaches support around 5450 on the longer termed Daily chart. Technical Indicators The technical indicators are bearish for SOYUSD. There has been negative crossovers on the short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. The RSI is trading below 50 and there has been a negative crossover on the KST as the commodity’s price approaches support. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market, with a stop loss at 6490 and a target of 3755. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.68. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to Soybean Oil.
FOREXCOM:SOYUSDShort
by Ceddy86
1
Soybean Oil Positioned to Move Higher to 6700 Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. Soybean Oil (SOYUSD) hit some resistance around the 6315 price level and declined towards 5845 where the commodity found support. SOYUSD is rallying to re test 6315 resistance. Expectations are for the commodity to breakout higher and target 6700. Failure of this move would occur if SOYUSD decline towards 5800. On a Daily Chart there has been a trend change from early September for the commodity to make a leg higher. Technical Indicators SOYUSD is trending higher with positive crossovers on the short (50-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. The commodity is trading above the respective MAs. The RSI is above 50, indicating a bullish price move. This is corroborated by the KST in a positive mode. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 5800 and a target of 6700. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.66. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
FOREXCOM:SOYUSDLong
by Ceddy86