The last time we had a perfect storm situation to buy grains, we had a monster rally in both corn and beans. We are now in a similar situation, with the recent surge in Nat Gas affecting fertilizer prices. Weather in Brazil is problematic and China is struggling to produce grains locally...We are once again nearing a situation where reward to risk for buying into...
this is an update on my previous post. a higher low on the shorter term time frame was my cue to prep myself for another move to the upside. atm, we have an inverted head and shoulders formation within a bull flag pattern on the 30-min.
soy went from being one of the hottest commodities to losing all its steam. a double bottom, a classic reversal pattern, was formed last week. after descending for months, a retracement to the 50/61 fib level could mark the beginning of an uptrend.
some confluence: the DBA broke out of its ascending triangle chart pattern.
Quick and dirty trade idea on soybeans. Nothing fancy by any stretch of the imagination.
Previous 11.85 support is being tested, maybe we can make a dollar or two based on a quick pivot to the upside. As a result, a very tight stop loss is in order, this trade has a very high reward / risk ratio. No time will be wasted, the market shall crash though support and...
US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs. Trends higher after export program concludes.
Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports….
Commercial Net (green) is tipping lower, about neutral. Selling by farmer to commercial met by equal buying of end users.
Commercial Shorts (yellow) recently...
I have updated my wave count on short soybeans. I am posting it as a new idea. Maybe I'm suppose to update the old?? IDK , new to this s**t.
South American weather is ideal for planting-this is not bullish soybeans. Crush margins are great in the USA keeping basis firm through harvest.
Fundamentally looking for soybeans to drift lower through fall and reaching the .618 level of the impulsive move higher that started last year. Since this is a continuation chart I am not married to that level but will be looking for signs of bottoming. The catalyst higher will come with Chinese buying and South American weather premium.
Soybean – Weekly Cont: Beans have continued to lean lower since breaking into the cloud several weeks ago. The 12.40-12.60 area is supportive but a move below could take beans to the 11.80 -11.40 area.
Resistance is the blue down trending TenKan line currently in the 13.08 area.
Soybean – Weekly Cont: Nov21 contract leading this continuous chart. The bean chart is showing the same technical construct as corn. Cloud support has been broken. I would like to see a close above the cloud and the downtrend line…Secondary cloud support down at 11.40. Gap in volume by price confirms the 11.40 potential.
Resistance above the cloud and trendline...
The inflation trade is not over. People's lives, in particular in the US, are about to deteriorate significantly. Or rather improve, with food getting more expensive and people forced to live more simple lives, more in touch with nature. The official measures and consensus will say deteriorate.
Traders positions have bottomed in the strict sense, with the price...
The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. Soybean Futures is experiencing a broadening pattern in the respective timeframe. This pattern comes with increased volatility as the trendlines are expanding outward. It is projected that the commodity will rally towards 1440, around the sighting of a gap lower. An indicative stop loss is...
Soybean – Weekly Cont: Aug contract leading the continuous chart. **Not all end user bids offered off the August Contract**
Using the recent swing low from 12.89 for retracement targets, the 50% 14.78 target aligns with the red kijun line and will be a tough line to cross. Above take your pick at 15.23, 15.86 and 16.24. Support is 14.33, 13.78 and 12.89. ...