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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

S&P 500 Technical Analysis & Trading OutlookCurrent Price: 6,715.20 | Date: October 4, 2025 📊 MARKET OVERVIEW The S&P 500 is trading at 6,715.20, hovering near historical resistance zones. This analysis integrates multiple technical frameworks to provide actionable insights for both intraday and swing traders. 🔍 MULTI-TIMEFRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Monthly & Weekly Perspective (Swing Trading) Elliott Wave Analysis: The index appears to be in a Wave 5 extension of a broader bullish impulse from the 2022 lows Monthly chart shows potential exhaustion signals as we approach the 6,750-6,800 resistance cluster Wave structure suggests a possible corrective phase (ABC) may initiate in Q4 2025 Ichimoku Cloud (Weekly): Price trading above the cloud - bullish structure intact Tenkan-sen (9): 6,682 | Kijun-sen (26): 6,591 Future Senkou Span projects resistance at 6,780-6,820 Key Support Levels (Swing): 6,620 - Kijun-sen weekly support 6,480 - 50-week EMA (critical long-term support) 6,350 - Monthly pivot & Wyckoff accumulation zone 6,180 - 200-week MA (major bull/bear line) Key Resistance Levels (Swing): 6,750 - Psychological resistance & Gann 1x1 angle 6,820 - Ichimoku cloud projection 6,945 - Fibonacci 1.618 extension from August lows Daily & 4-Hour Perspective Wyckoff Analysis: Current phase suggests late distribution (UTAD - Upthrust After Distribution) Volume declining on recent rallies - potential weakness Accumulation zone identified: 6,480-6,550 for re-entry Harmonic Patterns: Bearish Bat pattern forming on the 4H chart PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone): 6,740-6,760 Bearish divergence on RSI confirming pattern validity Bollinger Bands (Daily): Price at upper band (6,735) - overextended Band width expanding - increased volatility expected Middle band support: 6,580 Volume Analysis: VWAP (Anchored from September low): 6,612 Volume profile shows weak volume above 6,700 High volume node (HVN) at 6,550-6,600 - strong support Intraday Analysis (1H, 30M, 15M, 5M) Current Intraday Setup: RSI (Relative Strength Index): 1H RSI: 67.8 (approaching overbought) 15M RSI: 72.3 (overbought territory) Bearish divergence forming on 30M chart Moving Averages: Death Cross Warning: 50 EMA approaching 200 EMA on 4H chart 1H: 20 EMA (6,698) acting as immediate support 5M: Price oscillating around 50 EMA (6,712) Gann Analysis: Gann Square of 9: Next resistance at 6,728 (45° angle) Time cycle suggests potential reversal window: October 7-9, 2025 Price/Time square approaching - expect volatility spike Candlestick Patterns (Recent): Evening Star formation on 4H chart (bearish reversal) Long upper wicks on 1H chart - rejection at resistance Doji formation on daily - indecision 🎯 TRADING STRATEGIES INTRADAY TRADING SETUP (Next 5 Trading Days) Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability - 65%): Entry Zones: Primary Short Entry: 6,725-6,735 (upon rejection) Secondary Short Entry: 6,750-6,760 (if breakout fails - bull trap) Stop Loss: Above 6,775 (invalidation level) Profit Targets: TP1: 6,680 (20 EMA support - 1H) TP2: 6,650 (VWAP anchor) TP3: 6,620 (Kijun-sen weekly) TP4: 6,580 (Daily BB middle band) Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3 minimum Confirmation Signals: Break below 6,700 with increased volume RSI crosses below 50 on 1H chart MACD bearish crossover on 30M Bullish Scenario (Lower Probability - 35%): Entry Zones: Long Entry: 6,680-6,690 (upon bounce from 20 EMA) Aggressive Long: 6,650-6,660 (VWAP retest) Stop Loss: Below 6,635 Profit Targets: TP1: 6,720 (resistance retest) TP2: 6,750 (psychological level) TP3: 6,780 (Ichimoku cloud resistance) Confirmation Signals: Volume surge on bounce RSI bullish divergence on 15M Break above 6,720 with strong momentum SWING TRADING SETUP (2-4 Week Outlook) Primary Strategy: SELL ON RALLY Phase 1 - Distribution (Current): Expect choppy price action between 6,680-6,750 Ideal swing short entry: 6,735-6,760 Stop loss: 6,820 Target: 6,480-6,550 (Accumulation zone) Time horizon: 2-3 weeks Phase 2 - Accumulation (Upcoming): Watch for bullish reversal patterns in 6,450-6,550 zone Potential H&S inverse or double bottom formation Long entry upon confirmation Target: 6,850-6,950 (Next impulse wave) Time horizon: 4-8 weeks ⚠️ RISK FACTORS & MARKET CONTEXT Trap Alert: Bull Trap Risk: HIGH above 6,750 Weak volume at resistance suggests false breakout potential Head and Shoulders pattern forming on 4H chart Bear Trap Risk: MODERATE below 6,650 Strong support zone with high volume profile Potential quick reversal if broken Geopolitical & Macro Factors: Fed policy uncertainty - rate decision impact expected mid-October Q3 earnings season beginning - volatility spike likely Geopolitical tensions may trigger safe-haven flows Seasonal October volatility historically present Volume Volatility Assessment: Current State: Declining volume on rallies (bearish) Expected: Volume spike at 6,750 resistance or 6,650 support Strong Trend Confirmation: Sustained volume >15% above 20-day average 🎯 TRADING PLAN SUMMARY For Next Week (Oct 4-11, 2025): Monday-Tuesday: Expect resistance at 6,725-6,735. Look for short opportunities on rejection. Wednesday-Thursday: Gann time cycle window - increased volatility. Watch for break of 6,700 or 6,750. Friday: Weekly close crucial - below 6,680 confirms bearish bias; above 6,750 invalidates short setup. Optimal Strategy: Sell rallies into 6,730-6,750 resistance Wait for confirmation - don't chase Manage risk strictly - volatile market conditions Scale into positions - don't enter full size immediately 💡 TRADER'S EDGE Pattern to Watch: The confluence of: Bearish Bat harmonic completion RSI divergence Wyckoff distribution phase Weak volume at resistance Gann time/price square Creates a HIGH-PROBABILITY SHORT SETUP at 6,735-6,760 Critical Levels This Week: Bull Control: Hold above 6,700 Bear Control: Break below 6,650 Decision Zone: 6,675-6,725 📝 DISCLAIMER This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always use proper risk management, never risk more than 1-2% of your capital per trade, and consider your own risk tolerance and trading plan. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Stay disciplined. Trade the plan. Manage your risk.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by sunya
2
SPY Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for SPY is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 669.20 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 663.47 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
1
A look at the MES1! (SPX)Chart Time Frame: 1 Hour Current Price: 6763 after setting recent ATH at 6800 Daily Candle: Top Heavy Doji with open / close entire in the body of previous candle. 📈 Price Action & Technical Analysis EMA 8 (thin cyan): ~6733 – Above price. Negative Slope. EMA 21 (med cyan): ~6775 – Above price and EMA 8. Negative Slope. Rotation zone created on 1H and lower TF (EMA 8 crossed EMA 21). Crossover has not happened on higher TF's at time of post. EMA 50 (thick cyan): ~6765 – Above current price; Flattening out. Structure: Bullish Trending since April lows. 📈 RSI (14 Close) Current: 43 (57 MA) Interpretation: Below neutral (50), momentum is weakening. 📈 MACD (12, 26, 9) MACD Line: 1; Signal Line: 4.2; Histogram: -3.2 Interpretation: MACD is growing bearish, histogram showing increasing intensity, yet still above 0. 🎯 Key Levels Support: various possible trend lines shown (Purple). Price action Monday will determine their validity. Swing low at 6681. Resistance: Overhead moving averages. ATH at 6800. 🧨 Volatility Outlook VIX - After a decline, showing signs of inflection. Currently trending upwards on the daily TF. Government shutdown and headline risk are of some concern to short term price action. Short Term: A sudden opening of the government could certainly cause a bullish event. I could also imagine certain headlines that would cause a short term bearish event. Longer term: govt shut downs have typically preceded bullish gains. 📈Macro/Fundamental Analysis Interpretation: We are in between earnings seasons and with a Gov shutdown, void of Gov Data. DXY - Pulled back significantly this year. I personally expect it to continue. This could provide a tail wind to equities pricing. 📆 Economic Calendar / Earnings Schedule Econ Calendar: Relatively Light Next Week Wednesday - 3PM EST - FOMC Minutes. Dot Plot could cause some action as the minutes are dissected. Friday - 10AM - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report. A big miss (up or down) could cause some action. 🔍 Summary 🔻 Trend: Long bull run - might be getting stale; Might just be getting started. You decide. 🧩 Momentum: Very high on longer TFs, Turning down on the lower. 🧠 Tactics: Short Term - I love a 'rotation zone trade'. If price bounces back up into the EMA 21/8 spread zone, I would be looking for some day trade shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by WillNixTrading
$UNH Testing All-Time High AVWAPNYSE:UNH is currently testing its All-Time High Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (ATH AVWAP), while simultaneously forming what appears to be a flat base. In pre-market trading today, the stock price has moved above the AVWAP, potentially indicating reduced overhead resistance and the possibility for continued upward momentum. Position and Strategy I initiated a position in NYSE:UNH on August 13th and have steadily increased my holdings up to and including yesterday. As the stock approaches a critical juncture, there is potential for it to continue rallying, especially with earnings scheduled to be announced in 25 days. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets The consensus among analysts is generally positive for NYSE:UNH , with 16 rating it as a buy or strong buy, 7 assigning a hold rating, and 3 recommending a sell. The highest 12-month price target currently stands at $440. Future Plans If NYSE:UNH can move above the $362 level, I plan to further increase my already oversized position, as this would present a compelling opportunity to at least fill the gap.
NYSE:UNHLong
by jaxdog
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups for Fri, (Oct 3)08:30 Employment Situation (NFP, unemployment rate, wages) is scheduled, per BLS release calendar. Note: multiple outlets report the federal shutdown may delay key reports, including payrolls—treat 08:30 as tentative. 10:00 ISM Services PMI (third business day @ 10:00). Setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) Kill-zones (ET): London 02:00–05:00 (optional), NY AM 09:30–11:00 (primary), NY PM 13:30–16:00 (primary). Stops: Hard SL anchored to the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50 pts. Targets: TP1 = major opposing level. At TP1: close 70%, set runner 30% to BE; runner aims TP2→TP3. No trail before TP2. Time-stop: 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts per level per session. Acceptance Continuation — LONG (Tier-1 A++) Trigger: 15m body-through acceptance above 6,788 → 5m pullback holds ≥6,782 and re-closes up → 1m HL entry. Entry: 6,784–6,788 reclaim. SL: ~6,778 (below trigger wick). TPs: 6,800 → 6,810 → 6,822–6,830. Invalidation: 15m close back inside ≤6,782. 3) Quick-Reclaim Bounce at PDL — LONG (Tier-2 A+) Trigger: Sweep 6,742–6,746, instant reclaim with 5m close back above 6,746 → 1m HL entry. Entry: 6,744–6,746 after reclaim. SL: 6,737–6,739 (below sweep low). TPs: 6,762 → 6,774 → 6,786. Sizing: Tier-2 (¾ size). 4) Breakdown & Hold — SHORT (Trend/Acceptance) Trigger: 15m acceptance below 6,742, 5m pullback fails ≤6,742 and re-closes down. Entry: 6,740–6,742. SL: 6,748–6,750. TPs: 6,725 → 6,710 → 6,695. Invalidation: 15m close back inside ≥6,748. === Rejection Fade at PDH — SHORT (Tier-1 A++) Trigger: First touch 6,786–6,788 fails; 15m rejection close back inside ≤6,782, 5m lower-high + re-close down → 1m LH entry. Entry: 6,782–6,786. SL: 6,791–6,794 (above rejection wick). TPs: 6,762 → 6,746 → 6,725. Invalidation: 15m body > 6,788. PA Thoughts: Overnight (Asia/London): Looking at the base case rotation between 6,758 and 6,786. I’ll be fading the edges on the first touch of this range (Setups 2/3). A break and acceptance beyond these edges would open up potential targets—6,800 to the upside and 6,725 to the downside. If the Asia session pushes into the R2 and faces rejection, I’ll look for a lower high back toward S1. However, if we see acceptance above, expect a grind toward 6,800–6,810. NY AM (09:30–11:00): Depending on the 08:30 data release, be prepared for potential fast, one-sided movement. I plan to stay on the sidelines until we see a 15-minute acceptance at R2/S2, then I’ll execute Setup 1 for an upward move or Setup 4 for a downward trend. If the data comes in delayed or shows benign results, anticipate the first impulse to shift to 10:00, and I’ll apply the same acceptance strategy at the nearest edge. NY PM (13:30–16:00): If we hold above 6,788 from the AM session, I’ll target the 6,800–6,810 range and manage runners toward 6,822–6,830 as we approach the close. Conversely, if the AM session fails between 6,786 and 6,788, I expect to see lower highs towards 6,758 and possibly down to 6,746. A clean break below 6,742 would open the door for a slide to 6,725.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
S&P500 - $8.000 is the ultimate target!🎊S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) continues the bullrun: 🔎Analysis summary: Over the course of the past couple of months, the S&P500 has been rallying +40%. However, this does not mean that the bullrun is over any time soon. Since the S&P500 perfectly respects the rising channel pattern, a move to the upper trendline is the target. 📝Levels to watch: $8,000 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
TVC:SPXLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
7
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 2, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 2, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Shutdown watch: Traders brace for possible delays in major data releases; only essential reports like jobless claims likely to print. 📉 Post-ADP/ISM digestion: Markets recalibrate after Wednesday’s jobs + factory data ahead of Friday’s 🚩 NFP. 💵 Fed chatter: Dallas Fed’s Logan adds to policy tone as markets parse shutdown + labor signals. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) (will publish even under shutdown) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Aug) (at risk of delay if shutdown persists) ⏰ 10:30 AM — Fed Speaker: Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #joblessclaims #factoryorders #Fed #shutdown #bonds #Dollar #economy
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Why DraftKings (DKNG) Stock Could Reach $57 by End of 2025DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ: DKNG), a leading U.S. online sports betting and iGaming operator, is positioned for potential upside to $57 per share by December 31, 2025, based on analyst consensus, robust growth projections, and market tailwinds. As of early October 2025, the stock trades around $42–$43, implying roughly 32–36% appreciation from current levels. This target aligns closely with the average analyst price target of $57.57 (from 30 reports), which reflects a "Strong Buy" consensus (1.25 ABR on a 1–5 scale, with 26 buys, 0 holds, 0 sells). Below, I'll outline the key drivers, supported by recent data.1. Strong Revenue and Profitability Guidance for FY 2025 DraftKings has guided for FY 2025 revenue of $6.2–$6.6 billion (31% YoY growth at midpoint) and adjusted EBITDA of $900 million–$1.0 billion, reaffirming prior estimates after Q3 2024 results (revenue up 39% YoY to $1.095 billion). 2 sources This trajectory is fueled by:User Growth and Engagement: 41% YoY increase in monthly unique payers in Q3 2024, with average revenue per user rising due to enhanced in-play betting and NBA/iGaming expansions. Market Share Gains: DraftKings holds ~35% of U.S. online sports betting handle, benefiting from NFL/NBA seasons and new launches (e.g., Missouri pending approval). Analysts like those at Goldman Sachs note the company's "resilience in online gambling during economic downturns" and positive momentum in customer acquisition, supporting EBITDA beats. Metric FY 2024 Guidance (Updated) FY 2025 Guidance YoY Growth (Midpoint) Revenue ~$4.7B $6.2–$6.6B +31% Adjusted EBITDA $240–$280M $900M–$1.0B +250%+ This path to profitability (positive free cash flow expected in 2025) reduces valuation discounts, with forward P/S multiples at ~3.5x (below peers like Flutter at 4x).2. Analyst Optimism and Price Target Momentum Wall Street's consensus points to $57 as achievable, with recent upgrades reflecting confidence in 2025 holds (11–13% in Q1 2025) and parlay/in-play product strength. Key updates:Zacks: $57.57 average (high $68, low $35), +49.77% upside from ~$38 close. TipRanks: $54.25 average, 26.93% upside; 53 buys in the past month. Recent Raises: Truist ($60), Oppenheimer ($65), Piper Sandler ($60), Stifel ($57), JMP ($60), Barclays ($60). Citizens JMP ($60) cites "materially shifted investor sentiment" post-Q4 2024 beats. JPMorgan (Overweight, $50 PT) highlights digital gaming's insulation from macro risks like tariffs, unlike land-based peers. 2 sources High-end forecasts (e.g., $65–$70 from independent models) assume sustained 17–20% revenue CAGR through 2027, driven by iGaming expansion. 3. Strategic Tailwinds and Market ExpansionRegulatory Wins: Full U.S. rollout in 25+ states, plus Jackpocket lottery integration (adding $200M+ revenue potential). Missouri launch could add 2–3% to FY 2025 top line. Partnerships: Multi-year NBCUniversal deal for sports sponsorships boosts visibility; Larry Fitzgerald Foundation tie-up enhances brand. Product Innovation: Live betting features and NFT marketplace (DraftKings Marketplace) drive retention; Q3 2025 NFL metrics show 12–14% YoY handle growth in key states like New York. Macro Resilience: Online gaming weathers consumer slowdowns better than physical casinos, with 37% Q2 2025 revenue growth despite headwinds. Potential Risks to ConsiderWhile bullish, challenges include:Hold Volatility: Early 2025 NFL outcomes could pressure Q3/Q4 EBITDA (e.g., customer-friendly results trended low per analysts). Competition: Prediction markets (Kalshi/Polymarket) pose niche threats, prompting a Northland downgrade to Underperform. 2 sources However, Benchmark and Jefferies counter this with Buy ratings ($53–$54 PT), emphasizing DraftKings' scale. 2 sources Taxes/Regulation: Higher state taxes (e.g., Illinois) could trim margins, though surcharges mitigate ~$100M EBITDA impact by 2025.
NASDAQ:DKNGLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
$CRCL IPO AnalysisOverview of NYSE:CRCL NYSE:CRCL is a recent initial public offering (IPO) within the digital currency and blockchain payment industry. The company presents itself as the “World’s Largest Regulated” stablecoin provider in the global financial sector. Trade Entry and Rationale On September 11th, I initiated a position in NYSE:CRCL for $128. The entry was prompted by a notable pocket pivot and the stock’s ability to reclaim the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), indicated in green on my charts. To manage risk, I set a stop loss just below the low of the entry day, which has not been triggered. Since entering the trade, the position has appreciated by just over 7%. Current Position and Strategy I am closely monitoring an identified area of resistance, where I have set an alert. If the stock can surpass this resistance level, I intend to add to my existing position. Risks and Technical Considerations Despite positive short-term movement, this remains a risky trade. While NYSE:CRCL is trading above all its shorter-term moving averages, it remains below the 50-day moving average (DMA), shown in red. Additionally, the stock is trading below both the IPO Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP) and the All-Time-High AVWAP. These technical levels may represent points where selling pressure could emerge, which is important to consider if you were to initiate a position. Conclusion Given its current setup, NYSE:CRCL may be a candidate for your watchlist.
NYSE:CRCLLong
by jaxdog
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key-Zones, Setups For Wed, (Oct 1)News & event map (for tomorrow, Wed Oct 1) • ADP National Employment Report – 8:15 ET. Official release time. • S&P Global PMI (final) – 9:45 ET. Scheduled on the first working day; tomorrow’s calendar lists 09:45. • ISM Manufacturing & Prices Paid – 10:00 ET. ISM releases on the first business day at 10:00. • JOLTS: already published Tuesday; none expected Wednesday. • Shutdown watch: if funding lapses at midnight, the Labor Dept./BLS suspends operations and economic data are delayed (e.g., Friday jobs report). Expect the market to lean more on private data (ADP/ISM). Shutdown Overview – Trading Insights Historically, equity markets have exhibited mixed to mildly positive performance during government shutdowns, with the S&P 500 averaging gains between 0% and +0.3% in prior instances. The primary concern during these periods tends to be short-term volatility and potential delays in economic data, rather than sustained market downturns. Notably, the long-term trend suggests that markets typically recover and trend higher in the months following the resolution of a shutdown. Overnight projection (Asia→EU) The baseline expectation is for range-building between 6693 and 6725, with potential liquidity runs at the confluence edges. We often see price dips below the 6693–6695 zone rebound towards 6703 or 6713. Conversely, a strong acceptance above 6720–6725 can lead to a probe into the 6740–6750 range before the New York session. If we see a clean 30-minute close below 6693, that could open up the move to 6676 and potentially 6653. NY session game plan (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) Trade around the 8:15 and 10:00 windows; let the first impulse settle, then execute inside NY AM 09:30–11:00 and PM 13:30–16:00 kill-zones. ES LONG Acceptance (A++) — Entries, SL, TPs Bias: Only if 15m accepts above 6720–6725 (re-close & hold). Entry: 5m pullback hold → 1m HL trigger 6721–6726. SL: ≤6712.75 (beyond VWAP/IB-H) hard stop (±0.25–0.50). TP1: 6743.5 (PDH) — take 70%, set runner BE. TP2: 6750–6755 supply. TP3: 6763–6768 stretch if ISM beats and breadth expands. Invalidation: A 15m body back inside ≤6719 after entry. ES SHORT Rejection (A++) — Entries, SL, TPs Bias: Fade first test of 6740–6750 if 15m shows rejection (wick + close back inside). Entry: 5m LH re-close below 6735–6738; 1m trigger. SL: ≥6756. TP1: 6720–6722. TP2: 6703–6705 (Y-POC). TP3: 6693–6695 (Y-VAL/ONL). Invalidation: 15m acceptance above 6750.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
ES (SPX, SPY) Analyses, Key Zones, Setups Thus (Sep 30)SESSION DRIVERS • Europe: Germany CPI/HICP prelim came in hotter (2.4% y/y). • Energy: OPEC+ chatter about a possible +500k b/d hike hit crude; watch cross-asset spillover. • U.S. tape: Headlines around government-funding risk; yields eased into week-start. → Net: headline sensitivity + range tendencies early; let NY cash open set the tone. INTRADAY BIAS & SCENARIOS Base case: Range-to-down if 6714–6724 caps on first tests → rotate toward 6696 then 6669. Alternative: Acceptance above 6724 flips momentum up → test 6731–6736 stops; extension possible toward 6750/6763 if buyers hold retests. Threshold: 6696/6694 pivot (ONL/London Low). Below = opens magnets 6686 → 6669. Above and accepted = re-target 6714/6724. LEVEL-KZ PROTOCOL (15/5/1) — SETUPS: Tier-1 (A++) Acceptance Continuation — LONG above 6724 Trigger: 15m full-body close >6724. 5m: Pullback holds 6720–6724 and re-closes up. 1m Entry: HL reclaim. SL: Below 15m trigger wick or 6716 (whichever is lower). • TP1: 6731–6736, TP2: 6750, TP3: 6763. Management: At TP1 close 70%, runner 30% to BE; no trail before TP2. Tier-1 (A++) Rejection Fade — SHORT at 6714–6724 Trigger: 15m rejection that closes back below 6714. 5m: Re-close down with LH. 1m Entry: First pullback lower-high. SL: Above 6728 (or 15m wick high). TP1: 6696–6694, TP2: 6689–6685, TP3: 6672–6666. Notes: Best on first touch during NY AM. Tier-2 (A+) Quick-Reclaim Bounce — LONG at 6672–6666 Trigger: Sweep 6666 → instant reclaim; 15m closes back above 6672. 5m: Re-close up holding the band. 1m Entry: HL. SL: Below 6658. • TP1: 6696, TP2: 6714–6724, TP3: 6731–6736. Size: ¾ normal. Tier-3 (A) Exhaustion Flush — LONG at 6654–6650 or 6639–6636 Trigger: Exhaustion wick + 15m close back inside; 5m re-close up. SL: 6–8 pts below the wick (respect the 15m anchor). • TP1: 6666–6672, TP2: 6696, TP3: 6714. Size: ½ normal. Use only if velocity spike + capitulation tells. RISK & EXECUTION GUARDRAILS • Hard SL on the relevant 15m wick ±0.25–0.50 pts. • Viability gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R. • Max 2 attempts per level per session; time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. • Daily guardrails: stop trading at −2R net or lock gains at +3R net. • Lunch 12:00–13:00 manage only; PM window 13:30–16:00 for second pass.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
2
COIN wave 5 Underway!NASDAQ:COIN wave 4 appears complete at the expected Fibonacci retracement 38.2 and High Volume Node support. A local channel has formed which could be a bear pennant so bulls should watch out. A breakout of this would hit resistance at $360 High Volume Node and the first take profit area from my recent trade. Clearing this Nose will confirm wave 5 is underway to new all time highs $500+ RSI is flipping bullish from oversold and the dail 200EMA continues to rise. Safe trading
NASDAQ:COIN
by Maddox_Metrics
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 30, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 30, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Q3 closeout: Last trading day of September = quarter-end rebalancing flows in equities and bonds. 💵 Fed watch: Multiple Fed speakers across the day keep policy tone in focus. 💻 Mega-cap drift: NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:NVDA leadership remains sensitive to yields + growth data. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 9:00 AM — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jul, 20-city) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Sep, Conf. Board) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Sep) 🗣️ Fed Speakers: • 6:00 AM — Philip Jefferson (Fed Vice Chair) • 9:00 AM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed) • 1:30 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) • 3:30 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed, TV appearance) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #JOLTS #ConsumerConfidence #CaseShiller #PMI #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPX - That's all folks?The world has gone nuts, but markets didn't even blink. Now the SPX has reached it's U-MLH, which means, it's at a real extreme. This is a level where price starts to stall, then turn. Often we see "a last attempt" to break through, and it really could happen. But then, gravity again takes it's toll and the rocket starts to turn south. Here are the scenarios I see: 1. Immediate turn at the U-MLH. Target is the Centerline. 2. A break of the U-MLH, then back into the fork and a fall down to the Centerline. 3. Break the U-MLH, continuation to the WL1. The most unlikely would be 3. In my view, Party People should have left allready, but they refused to. And that's why this time headaches will be the least problem they face. Wating for a short signal, to load up heavy.
SP:SPXShort
by HowToChart
ES Futures (SPX, SPY) Weekly Analyses, Levels: Sep 29 - Oct 3 Weekly Outlook The trend remains bullish on both the weekly and daily charts, with price action re-accumulating beneath a well-defined supply zone around 6750–6760. Friday’s rebound from the low 6600s has established a higher-low structure on the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes, closing above the mid-range of 6612–6630, which shifts near-term momentum back in favor of the buyers. As we enter a catalyst-heavy week, the path of least resistance suggests a measured push through last week’s “weak high” zone (6750–6760). A decisive move above this supply shelf could target the psychological 6800 mark first, with potential for further upside towards 6865–6885, assuming momentum and market breadth are supportive. Conversely, if we fail to establish acceptance above 6755, the market could revert to a 6700–6760 range, with downside risks extending to 6620 in response to any hot economic data or risk-off sentiment in the headlines. Key catalysts this week (ET) Mon–Thu: Fed speakers scattered; watch for rate-path color and balance-sheet remarks. Tue 10:00: JOLTS (Aug). Wed 8:15: ADP employment (Sep). Wed 10:00: ISM Manufacturing (Sep). Fri 8:30: Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment (Sep). Fri 10:00: ISM Services (Sep). Note: Any fiscal headlines or shutdown noise can skew liquidity and tape reactions around these prints. Tomorrow — NY AM plan (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) ES Long (A++) — 6750–6760 Acceptance Continuation Bias: Bullish if we get acceptance above the 6750–6760 shelf. Trigger: 15m full-body close above 6755. Then 5m pullback holds ≥6750 and re-closes up; enter on the first 1m HL. Entry: 6752–6756 pullback fill (avoid chasing a wick). Stop: Hard SL below the 15m break-candle low −0.50. Viability gate: TP1 ≥ 2.0R. Targets: TP1 6798–6805; TP2 6865–6885; TP3 6900–6915. Management: No partials before TP1. At TP1 close 70%, move runner to BE. Trail only after TP2 or if a 5m lower-high forms against you. Time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1 nor SL hits. Max 2 attempts at this level for the session. Invalidation: 15m body back inside ≤6748 or a failed 5m re-close (acceptance lost). ES Short (A+) — 6750–6760 Rejection Fade Bias: Mean-revert to base if the shelf is swept and rejected. Trigger: Sweep 6750–6760 and 15m closes back below 6748. Then 5m re-close down with a LH; enter on the first 1m LH. Entry: 6744–6748. Stop: Above the rejection wick +0.50 or ≥6762, whichever is tighter. Targets: TP1 6705; TP2 6680; TP3 6620. Management: Take 70% at TP1, runner to BE; consider covering more ahead of 6680 into data windows. Time-stop 45–60m. Max 2 attempts. Invalidation: 15m acceptance back above 6755 or a 5m close making new session highs. Price Projection for the Week Base Scenario: If we see early-week acceptance above 6755, look for targets at 6800, paving the way for a gradual move towards 6865–6885 by Friday. A soft-landing scenario, characterized by cooler labor growth and steady ISM data, could push prices even to the 6900–6915 range. Alternative Scenario: Should we experience a rejection in the 6750–6760 range, expect the ES to remain range-bound between 6700–6760. Hot labor market data or strong ISM figures could drive the price back to 6620, where it’s crucial for buyers to defend this level to maintain the uptrend. Execution Notes: - Focus on trade opportunities only within key kill-zones: primary session is NY AM from 09:30–11:00; optional trading during Asia/London sessions should be done at reduced sizes. - Adhere to daily barriers: halt trading at -2R or after achieving +3R net. - On first touch, prioritize R0/S1 as significant; consider de-risking during second or third interactions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
SPY trend Broken? Use this Long / Short StrategyLast week was a choppy sell off in the markets. We did see the bulls defend price later into the week by bouncing the main indices very nicely. We discuss the simple support / resistance where you should be watching. Using the daily 7MA as resistance can be shorted however if we recapture and close above, then the markets remain a long to new highs. The trend of higher lows is still in tact signaling bullish strength... can we search for a new higher high?
AMEX:SPYLong
by Trading-Capital