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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Analysis of $IWM: Flag Pattern or Breakdown?Overview of AMEX:IWM and the Russell 2000 Index IWM is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the Russell 2000 Index. According to Investopedia, the Russell 2000 is the most widely quoted measure of the overall performance of small-cap to mid-cap stocks. This index represents approximately 7% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 and is composed of the bottom two-thirds of companies in terms of size within the Russell 3000 index. The broader Russell 3000 reflects the movements of nearly 96% of all publicly traded U.S. stocks. Significance of IWM in Market Analysis One of the reasons for focusing on this ETF is its role as a market barometer. IWM provides insight into whether small-cap stocks are participating in a broader bull market or lagging. Healthy bullish market continuations typically require participation from small-cap stocks. If small caps underperform, it may serve as an early warning that the overall market could be poised for a downturn, as these stocks are generally considered riskier. Recent Technical Observations A review of the chart shows that from mid-September to mid-November, IWM has struggled to remain above a resistance area established one year ago. The ETF has declined about 8.5% from its recent highs and may be forming a flag pattern. There was a strong bounce on Friday, accompanied by heavy volume, but the price remains within the current downtrend. It appears that IWM may have found support at a previous breakout level, though this is not yet confirmed. The ETF is currently trading well below both the 50-day moving average (red line) and the 21-day exponential moving average (blue line). Potential Trade Considerations A trade setup would be of interest if IWM can break above the downtrend line defining the flag pattern and regain the 21 EMA. Should this occur, waiting for the ETF to establish a higher low would provide an opportunity for a favorable risk-reward entry. Conclusion and Cautions At present, IWM does not offer a setup that fits the criteria for action within this trading strategy. Nevertheless, it may be worthwhile to add the ETF to a watchlist for future opportunities. All readers are encouraged to perform their own analysis and follow their personal trading rules. It is important to remember that all investments carry inherent risks, and making informed decisions is essential when allocating capital.
AMEX:IWM
by Brent_Calver
1
Weekly QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (16 NOV)Weekly QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (16 NOV) 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment appears bearish right now, in my opinion. The FED may pause rate cuts in December, which has contributed to recent selling pressure and possible hedging flows. However, with the U.S. government reopening last week, we will start receiving updated economic data again. If employment data weakens and CPI comes in low or stable, it could trigger a renewed bullish momentum. NVDA will report earnings this Wednesday after market close. I will be watching closely in my view, if NVDA were to miss expectations, QQQ and SPY could see a strong retracement. However, I think this is unlikely. I expect solid earnings growth and believe the AI cycle continues to support upside. Additionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the Trump administration aims to finalize its trade agreement with China by Thanksgiving (November 27). This could add further bullish sentiment to the market. 📈 Technical Analysis The market showed a strong bounce on Friday after tapping the 599 level. RSI has also reset, meaning price is no longer overbought. We remain inside the weekly range, and price has reached the 0.75 max discount zone for the second time. 📌 Game Plan – Prediction Bullish Scenario (Black Line): I think this scenario is more likely. I want to see price close a 4H candle above 613. If that happens, I will be targeting 618 next. Price may run 618, pull back slightly, then eventually push toward 625 and potentially all-time highs around 637. Bearish Scenario (Red Line): If we see strong selling on Monday, I will assume price may follow the bearish path. In that case, I expect a move toward 595.5 and then the range low at 589. From there, we could see a bounce and a reclaim of 595.5. 💬For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile. ⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by UA_CAPITAL
Weekly SPY (US500-ES-SPX) Outlook - Prediction (16 NOV)Weekly SPY (US500-ES-SPX) Outlook - Prediction (16 NOV) 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment appears bearish right now, in my opinion. The FED may pause rate cuts in December, which has contributed to recent selling pressure and potential hedging flows. However, with the U.S. government reopening last week, we will begin receiving updated economic data again. If employment data weakens and CPI comes in low or stable, it could support renewed bullish momentum. NVDA will report earnings this Wednesday after market close. I will be watching closely in my view, if NVDA were to miss expectations, both QQQ and SPY could see a strong retracement. However, I think this is unlikely. I expect solid earnings growth and believe the ongoing AI cycle will continue to support upside. Additionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the Trump administration aims to finalize its trade agreement with China by Thanksgiving (November 27). This could help bring additional bullish sentiment into the market. 📈 Technical Analysis Price retraced into the 0.75 max discount zone, ran the mid-term range low, and closed back above it creating another higher expansion bounce. On Friday, we saw a second retest of the range low followed by another strong reaction. In my opinion, price remains strong here. 📌 Game Plan – Prediction I currently see three scenarios: Bullish Scenario (Black Line): I believe this is the most likely scenario. I want to see price close above 675.5 and continue expanding higher. The first bullish target is 681. After clearing 681, a small retracement may occur, followed by a potential expansion toward all-time highs around 690. Orange Scenario: If the market opens less bullish on Sunday night, price may run 661 to gather more liquidity and energy for a move higher. If 661 is swept and a 4H candle closes back above it, I will assume this scenario is playing out. Bearish Scenario (Red Line): If price breaks aggressively below 661 and closes underneath it, that would indicate the market may want to move lower. In that case, I will exit my calls and buy puts, targeting a move toward at least 562.5. 💬 For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile. ⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by UA_CAPITAL
$SPX: dead cat bounce SP:SPX : Following the unexpected downturn on Thursday, SP:SPX stabilized last Friday after an intraday decline below the horizontal support at 6,550, which aligns with the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The candlestick wicks on the daily chart suggest a potential short-term pause in the prevailing selling pressure. Monday will probably see a continuation of the rebound from Friday’s lows; however, it remains unclear whether Friday’s low marks the end of the current pullback. The RSI14 is approaching, but not yet within, oversold territory, and does not exhibit positive divergence. For the upside scenario, retracement levels from Friday’s high have been identified. Bulls must first reclaim the 6,530 resistance to maintain momentum; nevertheless, unless the key resistance at 6,770—168 points above Friday’s close—is breached, the probability of another downward move remains elevated, targeting the 6,360–6,340 region.
SP:SPX
by OLIV2020
Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (21 NOV)Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (21 NOV) 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment is bearish right now, in my opinion. The FED is expected not to cut rates in December, and the uncertainty around when rate cuts may resume in 2026 is adding pressure. After yesterday’s intraday crash, overall market anxiety has increased significantly. 📈 Technical Analysis Price tapped the monthly FVG level around 588.5, which holds significant liquidity. In my view, this zone may set up the foundation for a potential Friday bounce. 📌 Game Plan – Prediction I expect two possible scenarios: Scenario 1 (Black Line): Price may consolidate and range between 597–588, creating choppy intraday price action. Scenario 2 (Red Line): Price may retrace toward 578.5, then recover and move back above the 588 level. 💬 For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile. ⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by UA_CAPITAL
A Historic Shift in the S&P 500 Is BeginningFriends, in my view, the unstoppable rally in the S&P 500 has finally come to an end. The market has completed a massive five-wave structure with an extended fifth wave — and now we’re witnessing a historic moment as an exceptionally large correction begins. As always, I’m watching two possible scenarios: the orange path and the purple path. But despite their differences, both point to the same outcome — my target at 5200. And that’s only the first target out of several. Make sure to follow and subscribe, so you don’t miss the upcoming updates and deeper breakdowns. This is just my personal market outlook — not financial advice. More updates coming soon.
SP:SPXShort
by chart1stry
Barchart says SPY had a nice bounce on the 100MA... uhhhh..So yeah, Barchart posted on FB with a screenshot of a "nice bounce" on the S&P500. Firstly, that wasn't much of a bounce at all with the weekly closing not far from the point of impact on the 100-day moving average. Secondly, this is just retail thinking and not considering the entire context of where the market wants to go in terms of liquidity, efficiency, and fair value. Let's dive a bit deeper into how price REALLY moves. - R2F Trading
AMEX:SPYShort
by Road_2_Funded
Analyzing Support in the S&P 500: $SPY Chart InsightsHas the S&P 500 Found a Support Area? I have closely examined the AMEX:SPY chart to determine whether the recent correction of 5% plus has reached a bottom. While the answer is uncertain, the chart suggests that the index dropped to a level of interest and subsequently bounced today. However, it remains unclear if today’s bounce signals a true reversal or is simply a temporary movement. Criteria for Increasing Risk Exposure To consider re-entering a larger position in the SPY ETF, which I previously trimmed after the price fell below the red 50-day moving average (DMA), I am looking for two critical signals. First, the price must recover the 50 DMA. Second, it needs to break above the downward-sloping trendline. Only if both conditions are met would I contemplate increasing my risk exposure. Current Approach At this stage, I am focused solely on observing present conditions and potential future developments. I am refraining from taking further action until clearer signals emerge from the chart.
AMEX:SPY
by Brent_Calver
The coming collapse of the carry trade part 2I have held off for a few weeks now to post this chart . Reason the timing I think now this should be seen as i called a top at 161.8 last year . we are now approaching the ABC targets in a double zig zag up to form a major top in Liquidity as we started to see by the crashing of BITCON in Bitcoin I am only looking for an wave A up to 96 and then down and then Up to peak at 106 zone to complete The head n shoulder top . best of trades Wavetimer
by wavetimer
NDX - 92% From ZeroI want you to always remember one thing: Wherever the price goes, it’s always 100% from zero. That’s why every now and then you need to take the chart off log and look at it with fresh eyes. Occam’s razor. I keep hearing the PERMA-BULL crowd screaming that “the bears are calling this an AI bubble,” and in the same breath whining that the pullback is “overdone” or “extreme.” Really? The S&P is down 5%, and they’re already crying about the bears? SMH. It’s all strawman nonsense. Don’t fall for it. Take it off log… Remember everything is 100% from zero… Use your basic, instinctive judgment… And then ask yourself what your eyes are telling you when you look at this chart. That’s the truth — not the narratives. THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep climbing. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Boost 👉 Follow 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
FX:NAS100Short
by RealMacro
5
SPX - Hours Of Work To Buy 1 ShareHours of work needed to buy just one share of the S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high: 187 hours. That’s: 150% more work than 2007 60% more than pre-COVID (2019) 10% more than “Liberation Day” As I tell my kids: Don’t look at the price tag. Look at how many hours of your life — your blood, sweat, and effort — it takes to buy the thing. Then decide if it’s actually worth it. When the amount of work required keeps rising while what you get keeps shrinking, that’s not “innovation” or “AI magic.” That’s over-speculation. Buffett said it best: Price is what you pay. VALUE is what you get. Everyone screams about the price going up… but nobody asks whether the VALUE justifies the hours of work required to own it. That’s the truth — not the narratives. THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep climbing. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Boost 👉 Follow 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
SP:SPXShort
by RealMacro
8
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, PA Forecast, Setups Fri (Nov 21)Analyzing Today’s Sharp Market Decline The significant selloff observed today was not an arbitrary event. The day began with a robust rally following another impressive earnings report in the AI-chip sector, which propelled futures sharply upward and triggered a short squeeze in the Nasdaq. However, the release of a stronger-than-anticipated jobs report shifted the market's sentiment. While hiring showed signs of rebounding, the unemployment rate also ticked higher, undermining the prevailing narrative that the Federal Reserve would soon lower interest rates. This development served as a stark reminder of the ongoing restrictive monetary policy, coupled with slowing economic growth and exorbitant valuations in the tech sector. Major investment funds capitalized on the morning’s strength in AI and large-cap stocks as an opportunity to reduce their risk exposure. Additionally, systematic trend-followers faced compulsion to sell once the S&P 500 fell below critical support levels. The environment for high-beta assets, including cryptocurrencies, is already in a “reset” phase, which left little incentive for dip-buying at lower price points. As the E-mini S&P 500 futures broke through the previous day’s support levels, the situation escalated into a full liquidation. This perfect storm involved trapped long positions from the morning breakout, stop-loss orders falling into execution beneath yesterday’s lows, and mechanical selling, culminating in the largest intraday reversal since the spring. Market Outlook The current market sentiment is skewed bearish as the ES remains entrenched below the critical 6,660 to 6,700 range. The price is hovering near a significant demand zone established around the lows of the previous trading day and today’s New York session. While we can expect some upward bounces, these movements appear to be temporary rallies within an ongoing downtrend, rather than indicators of a potential new upward leg. Market Analysis: Is This the Beginning of a Downtrend or a Temporary Shakeout? In the recent developments within the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) on the daily timeframe, we’ve observed the formation of a distinct lower high following the recent all-time peak. This shift has seen prices breach the last identified higher-low area, establishing a new narrative. The sequence has transitioned from a higher high to a lower high, culminating in a movement into prior demand zones marked by increased volume, all while momentum appears to be rolling over. On the four-hour chart, the prevailing trend reflects a series of lower highs and lower lows. The recent selloff has further entrenched this trajectory into the discount zone, now signaling proximity to the next Fibonacci retracement target below. While momentum indicators have already dipped from overbought conditions, they have not yet reached deeply oversold thresholds, indicating potential for another leg downward following any short-term corrective bounce. From a broader perspective, the long-term trend remains positive; however, a short- to medium-term corrective phase appears to be in play. Today’s market dynamics suggest we may be in the midst of this corrective leg rather than witnessing the final downturn. As prices have recently entered a significant demand zone, a bounce lasting one to three sessions—or a period of sideways consolidation—seems likely before any potential further decline. In summary, while current conditions favor a move towards lower prices in the days ahead, the market likely anticipates a "lower after a bounce" scenario rather than an immediate and steep decline. Key resistance zones Resistance is written as bands, not single ticks. R1: 6,589–6,600 This band sits around the current Asia-session high and the underside of today’s New York low. It is the first lid above price. If rallies stall here, the tape stays heavy and favors another test of the lows. R2: 6,634–6,658 This is the main breakdown zone from today, centered around the New York afternoon high and the upper edge of the late-session range. As long as ES trades below this shelf, the short-term downtrend remains intact and every bounce is suspect. R3: 6,760.5–6,791.25 This band covers the New York morning low-to-high range and the origin of the big sell leg. If price ever retests this area and fails, it is a prime region for larger swing shorts. Only sustained trade and closes above this pocket would suggest the current corrective leg is ending. --- Key support zones S1: 6,575–6,552 This is the immediate floor combining the Asia-session low, New York afternoon low, and prior-day value low. It is where we are effectively trading now. Expect reactive bounces and stop-runs here, as both sides are active. S2: 6,525–6,509 This is the next downside magnet if S1 breaks cleanly. It aligns with a fib extension and 4-hour demand. A decisive move into this region would represent the next step down in the correction. S3: 6,430–6,418 Deeper extension and prior higher-timeframe demand. If the correction matures into a more serious pullback over several sessions, this pocket becomes a reasonable medium-term downside destination. A++ Setup 1 – Short from R2 supply (continuation short) Direction: Short Entry zone: 6,638–6,648 SL (hard stop): 6,678 TP1: 6,588 TP2: 6,552 TP3: 6,515 Invalidation (structure): If we get a 15m full-body close above 6,675, treat the short idea as invalid and stand aside; market is likely shifting into a squeeze toward 6,700+ instead of extending the down leg. --- A++ Setup 2 – Quick-reclaim long from S1 demand (counter-trend bounce) Direction: Long Entry logic: need a flush then reclaim Entry zone (after reclaim): 6,562–6,568 SL (hard stop): 6,538 TP1: 6,610 TP2: 6,638 TP3: 6,660 Invalidation (structure): If price breaks below 6,552 and 15m closes stay below 6,545 without a fast reclaim, the bounce idea is invalid; then you wait for the deeper S2 zone instead of forcing longs here. Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 21, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 21, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📊 Flash PMIs take center stage: These are the first real-time reads on November growth — high-impact for equities, yields, and recession-tracking. 🧭 Consumer sentiment + inventories wrap the week: UMich final reading offers clues on spending resilience; wholesale inventories remain a shutdown-delayed report. ⚠️ Shutdown backlog: Wholesale inventories (Aug) is still delayed due to the Oct 1–Nov 12 shutdown. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Flash PMIs (Nov) • Services: 54.5 (vs 54.8 forecast) • Manufacturing: 52.0 (vs 52.5 forecast) One of the most important releases of the day — markets move off this. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Consumer Sentiment (Final, Nov) Actual: 51.0 Low sentiment continues to weigh on forward demand expectations. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Aug, delayed report) Actual: 0.1 percent ⚠️ Delayed due to the federal shutdown — low relevance, but still part of the data backlog. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #PMI #consumer #markets #stocks #investing
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPX: A worrying Intraday Turnaround!While everyone, even the taxi driver, was celebrating NVDA's positive earnings report, the SP:SPX suddenly reversed. After touching the 20-day simple moving average, it dropped sharply with no buyers stepping in. With a 3.5% swing between the intraday high and low, the SP:SPX closed slightly below the horizontal support level at 6,550 and the 100-day moving average. It's unfortunate that the right shoulder is missing, as it would otherwise form a perfect head and shoulders pattern—though it might be more accurately described as the head of a one-armed head and shoulders. Jokes aside, the technical outlook for the SP:SPX has significantly deteriorated. The market's bullish sentiment has evaporated, making it more challenging to establish a bottom. If the S&P 500 doesn’t recover and consolidate support around 6,550 by Friday—an extremely important level that also aligns with the 1:1 extension below—we could face an “Air Pocket” of approximately 175 points. Within this Air Pocket area, we have extensions at 1.382, 1.5, and 1.618. The 14-period RSI is approaching oversold conditions, but it's not quite there yet.
SP:SPX
by OLIV2020
Maximize Your Gains: Latest QS V3 AI Trade AlertsSPY 0DTE Signal (2025‑11‑20) Direction: Buy PUTS (Short) Strike Price: $650.00 Entry Range: $0.02 – $0.03 (mid ~$0.03) Target 1: $0.06 (~+200% gain) Target 2: $0.09 (~+350% gain) Stop Loss: $0.01 (~‑50% from entry) Expiry: 2025‑11‑20 (same-day) Confidence Level: 60% (Low-Moderate) Position Size: 2% of portfolio 📊 Market / Signal Analysis Katy AI Prediction: Bearish trajectory with price expected to decline to $670.84 (~‑0.48% from current price). 390 prediction points show consistent downward momentum despite neutral summary. Technical Factors: Current Price: $674.09 VWAP: $672.77 (price slightly above) Session Range: $662.62 – $674.70 (support near lower bound) Volume: 9.1× average → strong participation, direction uncertain News / Sentiment: Mixed geopolitical developments (Russia oil sanctions, China-US trade) create risk-off sentiment; no strong bullish catalysts Options Flow: Neutral PCR 0.79, unusual activity at $691 call, max pain ~$668 → mild downward pressure ⚠️ Risk Considerations & Strategy 0DTE trade → extreme time decay and rapid price swings. Katy AI shows bearish signal, but confidence moderate → low conviction trade. Tight stop-loss and small position size recommended. Trade aims to capture intraday downward momentum, especially afternoon acceleration as predicted.
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantsignals
Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (20 NOV)Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment appears neutral to bullish right now, in my opinion. The FED may pause rate cuts in December, which previously contributed to selling pressure and hedging flows. However, with the U.S. government reopening last week, updated economic data will begin to flow again. If employment data weakens and CPI comes in low or stable, it could support renewed bullish momentum. NVDA beat earnings expectations and addressed AI bubble concerns clearly. AI demand remains strong, and their revenue growth continues to accelerate. U.S. tech firms turned notably green after the release, further boosting bullish sentiment. 📈 Technical Analysis Price is currently rising toward 613.5 following NVDA’s earnings results. A strong bullish candle close has appeared on NQ, indicating solid upward momentum heading into today’s session. 📌 Game Plan – Prediction I will be buying calls at the opening, targeting 613.5 first. After that, I will be targeting 625. If I see a 1H bearish close below the opening price, I will exit my positions, as I expect strong bullish momentum after the market opens. 💬 For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile. ⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by UA_CAPITAL
1
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 20, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Dual labor signals hit premarket: The delayed September employment report and weekly jobless claims land at the same time — a rare setup that can jolt both yields and equities. 🛒 Housing + recession gauges follow shortly after, giving traders a full macro pulse before midday. ⚠️ Reminder: Some October data (leading indicators) may still be affected by shutdown delays. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — U.S. Employment Report (Delayed Sept) • Payrolls: 50,000 • Unemployment Rate: 4.3% • Wages: 0.3% m/m, 3.7% y/y Treat this like a fresh NFP — major market mover. ⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15) Actual: 227,000 Weekly update on cooling/tightening labor conditions. ⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Nov) Actual: 1.5 vs –12.8 prior Important for gauging demand softness vs stabilization. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Oct) Actual: 4.10M vs 4.06M forecast Clean read on rate-sensitive housing momentum. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Leading Economic Indicators (Oct) Actual: –0.3% ⚠️ May still be subject to shutdown-related reporting delays. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #jobs #housing #labor #markets #PMI #investing #stocks
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao