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Statisticalprobability

Dax daily: 29 Jun 2020On Friday, we anticipated that Dax will remain in its consolidation range above 12 151, however, sellers found enough strength to break below this zone, keeping the price suppressed. Not only the session was closed at its daily low but the significant volume of orders moved lower as well and this signifies the sellers' dominance. Important zones Resistance: 12 151 Support: 11 829 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Monday's session started with a descending gap, yet the bearish sentiment doesn't fully control the initial trading hour. The price is confidently heading towards the weekend gap closure at the time of writing. For today, we have two important zones marked nearby - 12 151 as the resistance and 11 829 as the support. It is quite possible that we'll see some correction of Friday's drop before bears step in again to target 11 829. Have a good trading week!
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 24 Jun 2020As we predicted yesterday, Dax made its way outside of the consolidation range when it broke out of the resistance at 12 494. Just as we wrote, this breakout was a clear signal to retest another S/R level in the row and that is exactly what happened. Dax continued to hit the resistance at 12 595 where the price bounced back down and returned to the range of the past week. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Yesterday's price action gave us a signal that there is a mood in the markets and Dax has tendencies to continue higher. Considering that yesterday's breakout led to a retest of another S/R zone, we can understand this as the confirmation of the sentiment continuation probability. The major US indices futures also play in our favour as they gain in the morning trading hours and the correlation with Dax is often quite likely.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 23 Jun 2020Dax gave us a fake signal yesterday when it faked-out below the 12 151 S/R zone. The price very quickly returned to the consolidation range of the past week, levelled between 12 151 and 12 494. The daily range was relatively standard and we haven't even seen much volatility. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMI reports Today's session hypothesis Considering the fact Dax hasn't moved away from its consolidation range lasting one week already, we have no reasons changing the outlook. The Statistical Application also doesn't generate any probabilities in these situations and Dax awaits any decisive catalyst that will propel the price development. This could be today's PMI reports from the Eurozone or volatility in the main US Indices. These appear to be on the crossroad between the artificial positivism of re-opening the US economy, as created by Trump's administration, and a fear of the upcoming second wave of the pandemic. We now need to monitor the price action but mainly the breakout from the current consolidation.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 22 Jun 2020The last session of the past week turned out well for sellers. They managed to get down to a support level at 12 151 where we saw a slight correction before Dax broke to the downside and closed the week lower at 12 112. Important zones Resistance: 12 151 Support: 11 829 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis After a long time, today's session opened without a weekend gap. Dax hasn't moved anywhere yet to determine the initial directional push. Following Friday's session outcome, we slightly favour bears now. Their target could now be the previous fair value from 15 Jun, laying at 11 829. Our upper S/R zone will certainly be an interesting one as it could be a decisive factor between buyers and sellers. Should the price return back above, Dax would trade in the same consolidation range where it was last week.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 19 Jun 2020Thursday's session was quite interesting. We anticipated that Dax was likely to trade in its range and the resistance at 12 494 really served to just reject the upward price move. It is apparent this S/R zone is valid and those who had limit orders around this level can pride themselves with nice profits. Dax then moved to the middle of the range and we start fresh from the same levels, again. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Friday's session starts near the previous day and the first trading hour is dominated by buyers. It seems that bulls are likely to target 12 494 yet again and we stick to our yesterday's bias. We anticipate the retest and/or breakout of the nearest S/R zones and we incline more towards 12 494's side. If buyers don't want to go above there, the support at 12 151 isn't much stronger.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
1
Dax daily: 16 Jun 2020Yesterday's session showed us very clearly that buyers don't give out their gains of the past month. Dax was ascending since the open, without any pullback or correction. The price sliced through the 11 734 S/R zone without any sign of slowing down and closed the day up at 12 084 near its daily high. Important zones Resistance: 12 494 Support: 12 151 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 11:00 CEST - German ZEW Economic Sentiment Today's session hypothesis Against all odds, we haven't witnessed the low volatility as expected. The gap today suggests the volatility is likely to stay in the markets today as well. Dax opened the day with an ascending gap, priced at 12 288. The price is now above the S/R zone of 12 151, which is now being eyed as the most important level for bullish traders. We anticipate a pullback towards this area where buyers are likely to show their strength. If there is no will to get to 12 151, the resistance of our interest lays at 12 494 which is a very nice target to be retested.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 09 Jun 2020Yesterday's price action has, again, brought great profiting opportunities and Dax added another day to its bullish uptrend, even though the daily range was relatively standard. Right with the open of the European session, the price retested VPOC from Friday and continued consistently towards our resistance of 12 882 where it exemplarily bounced back lower and we were presented with another long entry opportunity on the pullback, below Friday's fair value. Dax eventually broke the resistance and closed at it's high at 12 934. Important zones Resistance: 13 119 Support: 12 592, 12 882 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of yesterday's High breakout is 90% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax has opened the day in the near vicinity of the 12 882 S/R zone. We see good chances right at the beginning of the session, especially for closing the gap towards yesterday's close and also retesting this value with the probable scenario of bullish continuation. The Statistical application also favours this thesis as the indication is for a 90% probability of yesterday's High breakout. We don't have any fundamental releases scheduled for the day hence we stick with our hypothesis uptrend continuation, best on pullbacks until we see some clear signs of a correction.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 08 Jun 2020Welcome to the new trading week. Our analysis on Friday turned out very successful, again. According to our statistical application, we saw the closure outside of the previous day range as this hypothesis had a high statistical probability. Dax continued in its bullish traction all the way towards the resistance level at 12 882 and the NFP print helped considerably in this. We haven't yet seen the correction. Important zones Resistance: 12 882, 13 119 Support: 12 592 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis A strong uptrend is underway and nothing suggests it should change. For some time already, we anticipate the correction, but Friday's NFP release hasn't really supported this vision, quite the contrary. There is a wave of optimism in the US markets but this is considered unsubstantiated if not false by many analysts. We'll only see the real economic impact of the coronavirus crisis with a delay. The US Indexes reacted to the labour data with obvious positivism and Nasdaq has printed another new record high, wiping out the entire crisis sell-off as if nothing happened. Dax is enjoying this correlated wave of markets optimism. The volume of orders has shifted higher to 12 800 and this week opened at this level, without a significant gap. Until we get some signs of a correction, we prefer to follow the trend with entries at pullbacks.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
GBPUSD Long Setup Target 1.3450 - SWING TRADEThis is going to be a bit long one i think. I have multiple entries for this trade. First one is Limit buy order at 1.18240 and the other one is BUY STOP above 1.2805. This is weekly chart so stop loss is going to be huge. BUY STOP order has 880 pips stop and BUY LIMIT order has 400 pips stop 1. ENTRY: 1.18240 BUY LIMIT 2. ENTRY: 1.2805 BUY STOP SL: 1.14226 400 & 880 pips 1. TARGET: 1.2804 2. TARGET: 1.3450 TRAILING STOP: I'm not planning to move my stop until the trend line breaks. I will move my stop right after each waves breakout. RISK MANAGEMENT: Minimum risk for this trade is around $90 with 1 micro lot (0.01 lot). So at least $5000 balance required for this trade (2% risk) DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice Trade safe, Atilla Yurtseven
Long
by AtillaYurtseven
4
Dax daily: 02 Sep 2019 Welcome to this first analysis of the month of September. Friday's session started by a relatively fast retest of our resistance zone at 11 899, which hasn't even slowed down the price momentum. The uptrend was seen until 15:00 when Dax corrected the bullish move by descending lower to retest the newly formed support at 11 899 which was our valid resistance at the beginning of the session. Dax closed in its upper range. Important zones Resistance: 12 037 Support: 11 868, 11 771 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs Canada & USA - national holiday Today's session hypothesis Today's afternoon session might be slower than usual due to public holiday in the US and Canada. Morning session might be influenced by the series of PMI reports from the Eurozone. We also have an increased statistical probability for breaking Friday's high. We could see buyers jumping in at around 11 868 and if that scenario turns valid and the high will be broken, sellers are likely to correct the upside move at 12 037. Considering the fact we also have an increased probability of closing inside Friday's range, it is logical to focus our targets back into the range should the price get above or below the high/low from Friday.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 28 Aug 2019 Yesterday's high was broken out as yesterday's statistics hinted. There was no apparent resistance up till the 11 774 level which eventually stopped the bulls. The 11 678 zone functioned as a support level and the session was closed outside of the previous day range and this fulfilled the same statistical probability as well. Important zones Resistance: 11 774 Support: 11 678 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of closing inside of yesterday's session is 87% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today we opened with a small gap which is already closed at the time of writing. The statistics suggest the price shouldn't get out of yesterday's range. The high from yesterday at 11 774 now serves as our resistance level. We are seeing a support level at 11 678. This zone is likely to be retested and we need to monitor the price action there. In case this support holds the price, we would like to see the breakout of the 11 774 resistance zone.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 27 Aug 2019 Monday's session started with a sharp upside move. As expected, sellers entered the market at our resistance level of 11 611 to correct the uprun, but not for long. The same scenario occurred once more at the following resistance zone of 11 645 which also didn't have long lasting. The 11 611 zone functioned as the support for another bullish push towards the end of the intraday session. Important zones Resistance: 11 707 Support: 11 561 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 83% The statistical probability of closing outside of yesterday's session is 83% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today we have a strong statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high. Right above this level, we have a nice resistance zone at 11 707 where we may anticipate seeing some bearish correction. Nevertheless, there is another strong card for the bullish sentiment as the statistics suggest the price is likely to close outside of yesterday's range. As always, we advise all traders to be vigilant and have a clear trade plan.
EUREX:FDAX1!Long
by FTMO
Dax daily: 26 Aug 2019 Friday's session started relatively innocent. As per our expectations, Dax descended to hit our support zone of 11 759 and closed the gap. We also saw buyers attempting to regain control before the storm hit the markets. News had it that China retaliated on the US import taxes and to no surprise, Trump's swift reaction on Twitter caused even more havoc when he lifted the existing tariffs even more (including services industry) and ordered american companies to withdraw from China. Dax bears started to jump out of the window and retested the subject S/R zone after the initial plunge. Next bearish target was the following support at 11 560 which slowed down the price for a few hours just to drop even lower to close the week at 11 532. Important zones Resistance: 11 645, 11 707, 11 611 Support: 11 404 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 10:00 CEST - EUR - German Ifo Business Climate All-day - G7 Meeting in France Today's session hypothesis For today, we estimate to see some correction of Friday's downfall. Ideally, the price could reach 11 611 - 11 645 levels which could work well for sellers to take the price towards the support around 11 404. Beware of today's news, especially some G7 Meeting after-tremors.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 21 Aug 2019 Tuesday's session was a bit odd from our point of view. Dax initially descended to our support at 11 646, but rather than bullish correction we hoped for, price action rather slowed down. Dax then closed near it's intraday low and today we open with an ascending gap. Important zones Resistance: 11 691 Support: 11 560 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's low is 96% Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Considering the very high probability for breaking yesterday's low, then all our short trades have a clear target. If yesterday's low gets broken, we can estimate a faster move towards 11 560 which is a really nice support level. Sellers are likely to step in around 11 691. Should Dax break yesterday's high, then the short hypothesis becomes invalid as the statistics suggest the breakout of both swings is as low as 7% only.
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by FTMO
Dax daily: 14 Aug 2019 Dax started the day with the expected drop and breaking the previous day low, which had a statistical probability of 83%. There was a sudden price spike after 15:30 when Dax shot higher some 300 points based on Trump's tweets. After the dust settled, Dax slowed down and hasn't really gone anywhere for the rest of the session. Today's gap has already been closed. Important zones Resistance: 11 899, 12 031 Support: 11 660 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Wednesday's session could start with the correction of yesterday's move. Buyers are likely to enter around the support level of 11 660 and attempt to take the price higher towards 11 899 and close this gap finally. We also have 87% statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high or low, but considering the fact that low is distanced some 230 points and the normal daily range is 110 - 160 points, it makes sense to anticipate a breakout of yesterday's high.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
Dax daily: 06 Aug 2019 Monday's session had an expected development. We first saw buyers taking the price slightly up, yet not able to retest the 11 823 level. Sellers took over and pushed Dax to the support zone of 11 657. It took some time for this to be broken to the downwards and bears dominated the intraday session until the close. Important zones Resistance: 12 031, 11 899, 11 8845 Support: 11 615 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Today's price opens with an ascending gap which could be closed and adequately find buyers at 11 615. We can then target our trades to retest yesterday's high and retest of the resistance zone of 11 845 - 11 899. If there are no significant buying pressures around 11 615, it is more likely that yesterday's low will be broken. As soon as that happens, buyers could shift things around to correct the fall and Dax would likely to oscillate and close inside yesterday's range.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO