It's looking for a trough in weeks/months for a big bounce up. One final leg down on "Weekly" to wrap things up.! Time + Structure is key here. Seasonality is bullish till May, but structurally looks like another low.! Or this analysis is basically wrong.!
Either we are consolidating, for Wave B then C down or this is some how could be counted as a base for Wave 3 trying to establish a ballistic move up. I have analyzed it extensively mentioning all probable bullish/Bearish out comes with statistics and probabilities. In a nut shell seasonality is favoring a bearish move Vs fundamentals, car production, that are...
Either Corrective, and we must not pass the Red line. Or Impulsive and we pass the Red line for much greater pullback/correction ! Red line is the key here, only time and wave strucutre will tell us how far we go down. Watch your long position at least for the short time just in case this is go down below Red line
We have 2 probable counts here, one Bullish and the other is Bearish.!
1/ ABC Counter trend move has finished or one more leg up then down.!
2/ 5 waves impulsive up, finished W3, working on W4 then wave 5 up.!
9 Years & 18 months. I choose the first largest three crashes as a base for cycles nothing more nothing less.
WADDUP MARKET MAKERS, CAN YOU SHARE THE PROBABILITIES OF YOUR ALGOS ;-) .
Blue adjusted for time = Action in June. Red and green = Action in July . It is like a
puzzle. Waddup MMs share the knowledge.
Golden Cross vs. Death Cross: An Overview
Technical analysis involves the use of statistical analysis to make trading decisions. Technical analysts use a ton of data, often in the form of charts, to analyze stocks and markets. At times, the trend lines on these charts curve and cross in ways that form shapes, often given funny names like "cup with handle," "head...
Home work, do your research and learn learn learn till you become aware of what is
going on in mkts and then being able to choose the right path for your and being able
to distinguish right ideas and analysis from the wrong ones.
*****Passing this cool info (Not mine) :
2. Set realistic expectations
When you're investing, your expectations of what you could...
94% Probability we shall go down between 35%- 4%
25% Zero days
35% 32 Days
4.37% 6 Days
13% Zero Days
20% 8 Days
5.55% Zero Days
9 % 23 Days
9% Zero Days
***23% bullish move
7% 7 Days
20% 10 Days
25% 3 Days
5.23% Zero days
12% Zero days
6% Zero days
26% Zero days
11% Zero days
12% Zero days
Just passing this cool info written by a guy called Ben Carlson.
- Ben discusses the differences between probability and certainty:
"There are two arguments I see on a regular basis that show up as a result of data overload:
…because that’s never happened before.
…because that’s what’s always happened before.
-The problem with this line of thinking is that...
Summary: How long would it takes to have a
reasonable pullback/correction/crash after a
major bottom in the market since 1877 ?
Median of 15 Months
Average of 20.71 Month
-June 2021 is the Median of
15 Months from Covid's low
-November is the average of
20 Months from Covid's low.
# of Bars = # of months it took for any significant...
Measuring days going down, from our
18 Months cycle to these corrections
last four big ones .
Probabilities of topping:
5.4.2021 "Already passed"
6.10.2021 . 66 days down
7.19.2021. 41 days down
7.29.2021. 33 days down.