NIFTY,BANK NIFTY, S&P 500 – ATH Close, Key Fibonacci Tests Nifty closed at a fresh all-time high of 26,328, up 286 points from last week. The index made a high of 26,340 and a low of 25,878. Despite the strong close, Nifty continues to trade within my broader 26,400–25,700 range, indicating strength with selective supply overhead.
An ATH close confirms positive momentum, but price is still hovering just below the important Fibonacci resistance at 26,492, making this level a decisive acceptance zone.
On the daily timeframe, structure remains bullish, suggesting this is a trend-resumption phase rather than a euphoric blow-off top.
Upside Scenario (Bullish Acceptance)
If Nifty sustains above 26,492 (Fib level) with consecutive closes:
Upside opens towards 26,700
Expected Trading Range (Next Week):
26,700 – 25,900
False Breakout Risk:
A brief move above 26,492 without follow-through for 2 sessions can turn into a bull trap, potentially pulling price back towards 25,900 / VWAP / short-term averages.
Downside Scenario (Momentum Breakdown)
A consecutive daily close below 25,900, especially with RSI slipping below 50 or weakening market breadth, can drag Nifty towards:
25,570
25,400
With the holiday season now over, traders should be prepared for stronger trending moves and faster momentum expansion.
BANK NIFTY – LEADERSHIP INTACT, VOLATILITY AHEAD
Bank Nifty delivered a record weekly close above the key Fibonacci level of 60,092, reinforcing bullish leadership.
Upside Continuation:
If Bank Nifty sustains above 60,100:
Targets: 60,500 → 60,700 → 60,975 (important Fib level)
Expected Range:
61,000 – 59,300
The 60,500–60,700 zone may act as a momentum pause / time correction area before any further extension.
A breakout or breakdown beyond 61,000 or 59,300 can trigger sharp, high-volatility moves—position sizing and trailing stops are crucial.
S&P 500 – TECHNICALS ABOVE HEADLINES
The S&P 500 closed at 6,858, down 71 points week-on-week. While geopolitical headlines may increase volatility, price structure remains the primary guide.
The index remains bullish as long as it holds above DEMA 100, currently near 6,661.
Trading Plan:
Every dip towards DEMA 100 remains a buying opportunity
Above 6,945: Upside targets at
7,026 (important Fibonacci level)
7,122 (major Fibonacci extension)
Risk Management:
Consecutive daily close below DEMA 100 + follow-through can pull the index towards DEMA 200 near 6,416
For positional investors, DEMA 100 should act as a trailing stop-loss
Alternatively, a daily close below 6,800 is a clear cue to protect profits
Market Regime Summary
Current market structure suggests trend continuation with controlled risk, not a runaway top.
Strategy: Buy strength, avoid chasing failed breakouts, and trail profits aggressively.
