Get started

Technical Analysis

Looking for Zuari's Golden Zone - Fib RetracementZuari's fib retracement on the daily chart on the run up from 200 to 390 shows a clear pullback to 38.2% followed by a failed attempt to break 100% in a seeming double top formation around 390, invalidating immediate bullish momentum. Daily Macd and RSI look weak with bearish divergences forming against PA, denoted with green brush lines showing both indicators with lower highs against price's equal high. A retest of the golden zone (61.8% to 78.6%) puts us between roughly 240 and 275, which should offer a high probability zone for accumulation and eventually a bounce. Look out for confluences of major fib levels with 1d 50ma, 99ma and 200ma. 61.8% also has a horizontal confluence with the Dec 3rd peak, and 78.6% has horizontal confluence with April 24th peak, also potentially infleuntial to support levels.
NSE:ZUARI
by Crabdabs
2
EURUSD Outlook – Range Waiting for Break August price action attacked July’s monthly low OF 1.14008, but closed extremely bullish. That move is already gone, so the easy play is behind us. Now it’s about whether the market maker gives us high liquidity in the first weeks of September to trade a breakout. Dollar price is showing manipulation and absorption on the higher timeframes, while EURUSD has been dumping orders across this six-month rally. We need it to break out of the range before a clear bias comes. Until then it’s higher frequency trading mode. From the economic side, Markets are already betting on a September rate cut, and politics around the Fed are hurting trust. At the same time, inflation is still high around 2.9%, which makes it harder for the Fed to act freely. That leaves the dollar stuck in the middle, waiting for a clear break. The outcome is simple. If the jobs weakness and rate cut story takes over, EURUSD has room to push higher out of this range. If inflation proves sticky and the Fed leans hawkish, the euro stalls and range chop continues. Right now bias leans bullish, but patience is key until the breakout confirms.
Long
by CORE5DAN
DXY Outlook – Bearish Lean, Choppy SetupDollar had a hard run the last three weeks with heavy bearish candles on the weekly. Price action has been messy, not easy to just get in and ride. My bias is still bearish, but I’m also looking at the bigger picture. On the monthly chart, key distribution sits under 94.095 and we haven’t reached it yet. Over the last two months price has been filling the bullish order block around 95.971 order block on the dollar index. If the market maker decides to move, it could go fast once the data lines up, whether in the first or second week. Right now we are sitting in a bearish volume channel lower end. Selling late is not smart because most of the move has already passed. That doesn’t mean there are no trades, but it does mean higher frequency and tighter risk until the next clear setup. From the economic side the jobs data is weak with only 73K added last month, which keeps pressure on the Fed to cut. The Fed is also seen as politicized, which hurts credibility and weighs on the dollar. Markets are already pricing a September cut and analysts are leaning bearish. At the same time inflation is still sticky near 2.9 percent while jobs are slowing, which leaves the Fed boxed in. Headline PCE is flat, not strong enough to flip hawkish and not weak enough to go fully dovish. That mix can trap the dollar between 97 and 100 until one side breaks. Best move is to keep watching the data closely before trading dollar markets. Bias stays bearish, but chop risk is high.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by CORE5DAN
NASDAQ Pullback Toward 23,160 as Index Holds UptrendHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring NASDAQ for a buying opportunity around the 23,160 zone. NAS100 is trading in an uptrend, with price currently correcting toward this key support/resistance level. Structure: The broader bias remains bullish, but price is pulling back after recent highs. Key level in focus: 23,160 — a significant area where buyers may look to step in and resume the uptrend. Fundamentals: Market sentiment remains supportive for equities, with U.S. data and Fed expectations keeping risk appetite intact. Any continuation of dovish Fed signals would add fuel to bullish NASDAQ momentum. Trade safe, Joe.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by JoeChampion
15
Bitcoin Weekly Chart – Is the 4 Year Cycle Over?This chart compares Bitcoin’s current weekly price action to its 2021 market structure. Both periods show striking similarities: double-top patterns (green circles), mid-cycle consolidations (yellow highlights), and support retests (red circles) within the bull market support band. The projection in red outlines a potential bearish scenario, where BTC could follow a similar path to the last cycle—breaking below support and entering a prolonged corrective phase. Traders should watch the $92K SMA and bull market support band closely as critical levels for trend confirmation.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by D1mKash
1
Gold Surges Over 300 Pips – Ready to Break 3,500 USD?Hello traders! Yesterday, gold skyrocketed by more than 300 pips , pushing price into the mid-zone of the long-term bullish channel. This move sets the stage for the uptrend to continue in both the short and medium term. Yesterday, the Core PCE index for July rose 0.3% MoM , in line with expectations and matching the previous month. On a YoY basis, Core PCE climbed from 2.8% to 2.9% , signaling that inflationary pressures remain. This data reinforces market expectations for a 25 bps Fed rate cut at the mid-September meeting. With the Fed leaning toward easing, the USD could weaken, thereby supporting further bullish momentum for gold. Technical Outlook (8H): Gold remains in its bullish channel, with yesterday’s candle closing above EMA 34 & EMA 89, confirming the uptrend. Support: ~3,405 USD (channel bottom + horizontal zone). Resistance: ~3,500 USD, where a mild pullback may occur before aiming higher. Short-term setup: Price could retest 3,405 USD before bouncing back to challenge 3,500 USD and potentially breaking out further. In summary: Gold maintains its bullish trend, with 3,405 as the key level and 3,500+ as the target. Upcoming US data will be crucial in determining whether a true breakout follows.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Rocky_trade_
2
EURUSD - Will the Euro’s Uptrend Continue?Current Situation On the 3H chart, EURUSD is showing a steady uptrend. Currently, the price is trading within the range of 1.16400 to 1.17400, with support at 1.16400 and resistance at 1.17400. A breakout above this resistance could push the price to 1.17800 or higher. The EMA (34) and EMA (89) indicators are signaling a positive trend, indicating strong buying momentum. Fundamental Reasons According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is an 87% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, which is putting pressure on the USD and supporting EURUSD. Additionally, global political and economic uncertainties continue to drive investors to seek EUR as a safe-haven asset. Trading Strategy If the price adjusts to the 1.16400 support level, it could be an opportunity to buy. The target is the 1.17400 resistance level. Set a stop-loss if the price falls below 1.16400.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
8
Gold Reaches New Highs Thanks to Fed PressureXAUUSD currently shows a clear uptrend channel, with gold trading above key support levels like 3,407 USD. Both EMA (34) and EMA (89) support the uptrend, as EMA (34) is above EMA (89), indicating strong buying momentum. Recent news suggests expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, with a probability of up to 87% according to CME's FedWatch tool. This would put downward pressure on the USD and support gold's rise. Concerns about the Fed's monetary policy, especially comments from Trump, also drive the search for safe-haven assets like gold. If gold maintains above current support levels, the next target could be the 3,450 USD resistance zone. With a clear technical uptrend and fundamental factors supporting it, gold may continue to head towards the 3,450 USD target. Traders may look for buying opportunities as the price adjusts towards support areas near 3,407 USD, with expectations of further short-term gains.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Rocky_trade_
8
Technical Analysis for BTC/USDTBased on mathematical and statistical models, along with technical tools such as Fibonacci retracement levels and moving averages, Bitcoin is currently undergoing a bearish correction after failing to break through the key resistance at $114,046. 🔹 Interaction with Fibonacci Levels In the previous analysis, we highlighted the importance of Fibonacci retracements in anticipating turning points. Recent price action confirmed this, as Bitcoin repeatedly reacted to these levels. The 61.8% retracement at $112,858 acted as a strong resistance, turning into a supply zone where sellers regained control. Moreover, price failed to approach the 100% retracement at $114,292, reflecting a clear weakness in bullish momentum at higher levels. After that, Bitcoin broke below the 38.2% retracement at $111,972, triggering a sharper downside move — once again proving the reliability of statistical models in mapping market behavior ahead of time. 📉 🔹 Key Support Levels $108,832: The first major support, aligning with a previous liquidity zone where price showed strong reactions. 🛡️ $108,353: A stronger support level. If broken, this could lead to a deeper bearish extension toward $107,500 or lower. 🔹 Technical Indicators The RSI dropped to low levels (41.6 and even near 26.4 at certain points), signaling oversold conditions ⚠️, which may lead to a short-term rebound from the supports. The 20 & 50 EMAs have crossed bearishly, confirming the downward bias. 🟢 Bullish Scenario To regain momentum, Bitcoin must reclaim the $111,400 – $111,900 area and then retest the $112,800 (61.8% Fibonacci) level. Only a sustained breakout here would open the way toward the major resistance at $114,046. 🚀 🔴 Bearish Scenario Failure to stabilize near current levels could push price down to $108,832, followed by $108,353. A breakdown below the latter would likely accelerate bearish momentum significantly. ✅ Conclusion Bitcoin failed to reach the key resistance at $114,046 and gradually lost strength as it broke through crucial Fibonacci levels. The market is now testing critical supports at $108,832 and $108,353, which will determine whether a rebound is possible or if further downside is ahead. At this stage, caution is essential ⚖️, with close monitoring of liquidity and momentum.
by MMTRADING-BNB
Micron Technology - The bullrun is not over!⛓️‍💥Micron Technology ( NASDAQ:MU ) will break out soon: 🔎Analysis summary: Over the past couple of years, Micron Technology has perfectly been respecting the rising channel pattern. With the current retest of the previous all time high, a breakout becomes more and more likely. Therefore the bullrun will only end with a retest of the channel resistance trendline. 📝Levels to watch: $125, $180 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
NASDAQ:MULong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
19
Current Price Action All MarketsWanted to share a picture of the daily TF price action of the major markets. 1) August has been a very slow market for forex. Nothing but chop... Especially over the last 3 weeks., 2)Stocks and gold have seen a slow grinding uptrend., Each market is unique in its own right and benefits not only different types of traders, but also different setups perform better during specific market conditions. It's essential to trade various types of market conditions to suit your style, as well as when you perform at your best and worst.
TVC:DXY
by MoneyballAustin
Mild risk-off: 112k key wall, 108.6k floor in focus__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC trades in a tight range below a major 111.9k–112.0k wall, while 108.6k remains a key floor. Macro is balanced, leaving near-term price action driven by technicals. Momentum: 📉 Mildly bearish — lower highs/lows under 112k, with supports still defended. Key levels: • Resistances (W/12H, 2H/1H, 4H) : 111.9k–112.0k (major pivot), 113.0k–113.6k (supply + on-chain 3M cost), 115.3k (240 Pivot High). • Supports (1H/30m, 2H, 12H) : 110.0k–110.2k (intraday demand), 109.4k–109.6k (2H demand), 108.6k (720 Pivot Low 12H). Volumes: Normal on 1D–12H, moderate on 4H–2H, and very high on 1H–15m → elevated intraday fakeout risk. Multi-timeframe signals: Overall MTF in NEUTRAL SELL (1D/12H/6H/2H/1H), with a more constructive 4H (ISPD DIV = BUY) hinting at a tactical bounce if 110.8k holds. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: NEUTRAL SELL → a slight risk-off tone that confirms the cautious momentum below 112k (30m/15m = SELL). __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategy favors “sell the rips below 112k,” while staying ready for defensive longs at 108.6k only on strong reactions. Global bias: Overall NEUTRAL SELL while below 112.0k on closes; bias invalidation above 112.0k (4H/12H). Opportunities: • Range short: Fade 111.3k–112.0k on rejection wick → target 110.2k then 109.6k/108.6k. • Defensive long: Only on sweep/reclaim of 108.6k with follow-through >110.8k. • Bullish breakout: Buy 4H/12H close >112.0k → target 113.0k–113.6k then 115.3k. Risk zones / invalidations: • Below 108.6k on 4H/1D: long invalidation → risk of downside extension toward lower on-chain clusters. • Above 112.0k (holding 4H+): short invalidation → fast squeeze likely. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • PCE in line and a “patient” Fed (Waller open to further cuts) → modest risk support without breaking the technical range. • Institutional flows: ~$179m net inflows into spot ETFs (Aug 28) → dip-buying support. • Rising MENA tensions → potential safe-haven bid if escalation. Action plan: • Entry (short fade): 111.3k–112.0k / Stop: 112.2k / TP1: 110.2k, TP2: 109.6k, TP3: 108.6k / R/R approx.: 1.5–3. • Entry (defensive long): Reaction <109.0k with reclaim >110.8k / Stop: <108.6k / TP1: 111.9k–112.0k, TP2: 113.0k–113.6k, TP3: 115.3k / R/R approx.: 2–3. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes stay under moderate pressure while lower timeframes show marked risk-off and very high volumes. 1D/12H/6H: Corrective structure below 111.9k–112.0k; 108.6k remains the defense pivot — compressive range with capped rebounds while 112k holds. 4H: ISPD DIV = BUY and moderate volumes; if 110.8k holds, a push through 111.9k can target 113.0k–113.6k. 2H/1H/30m/15m: Seller-biased (SELL/NEUTRAL SELL) with very high volumes → prioritize fades at 111.0k–112.0k; beware of fakeouts. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is balanced (in-line inflation, patient Fed) while ETF flows and on-chain costs neatly frame the key technical zones. Macro events: PCE in line with cuts still priced for September; US equities at ATHs support mild risk-on; MENA tensions can add a safety premium. Bitcoin analysis: Rejection under ~112k with focus on pullback/higher low; ~$179m net spot ETF inflows (Aug 28) reflect institutional dip-buying. On-chain data: Critical 107k–108.9k support (STH 6M/3M costs) and relief cap near ~113.6k; neutral funding, no broad capitulation. Expected impact: On-chain/technical confluence reinforces 108.6k as defensive long pivot and 113.0k–113.6k/115.3k as distribution while 112k caps. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Tight range below 112k with mild downside pressure and elevated intraday volatility. - Overall trend: mildly bearish (NEUTRAL SELL) while under 112k. - Most relevant setup: disciplined fade at 111.3k–112.0k with tight stops; alternative defensive long only on confirmed reaction at 108.6k. - Key macro factor: In-line PCE + patient Fed; spot ETF inflows back dip-buying. Stay nimble: respect 112.0k and 108.6k invalidations — fakeouts are frequent ⚠️.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Mastering the Elliott Wave Pattern🔵 Mastering the Elliott Wave Pattern: Structure, Psychology, and Trading Tips Difficulty: 🐳🐳🐳🐋🐋 (Intermediate+) This article is for traders who want to understand the logic behind Elliott Waves — not just memorize patterns. We’ll cover the structure, trader psychology behind each wave, and practical tips for applying it in modern markets. 🔵 INTRODUCTION The Elliott Wave Theory is one of the oldest and most respected market models. Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, it proposes that price doesn’t move randomly — it follows repeating cycles of optimism and pessimism. At its core, Elliott Wave helps traders see the bigger picture structure of the market. Instead of focusing on one candle or one setup, you learn to read the “story” across multiple waves. 2021 BTC TOP TESLA Stock 🔵 THE BASIC 5-WAVE STRUCTURE The foundation of Elliott Wave is the Impulse Wave — a 5-wave pattern that moves in the direction of the trend. Wave 1: The first push, often driven by smart money entering early. Wave 2: A correction that shakes out weak hands but doesn’t retrace fully. Wave 3: The strongest and longest wave — fueled by mass participation. Wave 4: A pause, consolidation, or sideways correction. Wave 5: The final push — often weaker, driven by late retail traders. 🔵 THE CORRECTIVE 3-WAVE STRUCTURE After the 5-wave impulse comes a 3-wave correction , labeled A-B-C. Wave A: First countertrend move — often mistaken as a dip. Wave B: A false rally — traps late buyers. Wave C: A stronger decline (or rally in bearish market), often equal to or longer than Wave A. Together, the impulse (5) and correction (3) form an 8-wave cycle . 🔵 PSYCHOLOGY BEHIND THE WAVES Each wave reflects trader psychology: Wave 1: Smart money positions quietly. Wave 2: Retail doubts the trend — “it’s just a pullback.” Wave 3: Mass recognition, everyone piles in. Wave 4: Profit-taking and hesitation. Wave 5: Final retail FOMO. A-B-C: Reality check, trend unwinds before cycle resets. 🔵 TRADING WITH ELLIOTT WAVES 1️⃣ Spot the Trend Identify whether the market is in an impulse (5-wave) or correction (A-B-C). 2️⃣ Use Fibonacci for Validation Wave 2 usually retraces 50–61.8-78.6% of Wave 1. Wave 3 often extends 161.8% of Wave 1. Wave 5 is often equal to Wave 1. 3️⃣ Trade the Highest-Probability Waves Wave 3 (trend acceleration) and Wave C (correction completion) are often the cleanest opportunities. 4️⃣ Don’t Force It Not every market move is Elliott Wave. Use it as a framework, not a rulebook. 🔵 COMMON MISTAKES Over-labeling: Trying to force waves where they don’t exist. Ignoring timeframes: Waves may look different across scales. Trading every wave: Not all waves are high-probability setups. 🔵 CONCLUSION The Elliott Wave Theory isn’t about perfection — it’s about perspective. It helps traders understand market cycles, recognize crowd psychology, and anticipate major turning points. Use Elliott Wave as a map , not a prediction tool. When combined with confluence — volume, liquidity zones, or trend filters — it becomes a powerful edge. Do you trade with Elliott Waves? Or do you think they’re too subjective? Share your experience below!
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by BigBeluga
10
Tesla – Symmetrical Triangle Breakout With 38% Upside PotentialTesla (TSLA) has been consolidating for several months within a symmetrical triangle formation, bounded by a descending resistance trendline from the November 2024 high and an ascending support trendline from the April 2025 low. This consolidation has now resolved with a breakout above resistance, suggesting the start of a new bullish leg. Technical Breakdown: 1. Symmetrical Triangle Formation: • Price compressed into tighter ranges, with lower highs and higher lows converging. • Breakout occurred above the descending trendline, confirming bullish bias. 2. Volume Confirmation: • Breakout was accompanied by a noticeable uptick in buying volume, strengthening the validity of the move. • Historical patterns show Tesla often rallies strongly after high-volume breakouts from consolidation zones. 3. Support & Resistance Zones: • Immediate support: $336 (former resistance turned support, aligned with trendline retest). • Stronger support: $296 (previous demand zone, key invalidation level). • Resistance target: $465 (measured move from triangle breakout, aligning with prior swing levels). 4. Momentum Indicators: • Stochastic RSI is rebounding from oversold territory, suggesting fresh buying momentum. • MACD (not shown on chart but implied) likely supports bullish crossover given recent price action. 5. Risk-to-Reward Setup: • Entry: $340–$345 zone after breakout retest. • Stop Loss: Below $296 (breakdown invalidation). • Target: $465 (38% upside potential from current levels). • Risk/reward ratio favors long positions with significant asymmetry. Trade Thesis: The breakout from a well-defined symmetrical triangle suggests a continuation of Tesla’s mid-term bullish trend. The measured move projection points toward ~$465, representing a potential 38% rally from current prices. As long as price sustains above the $336–$340 support zone, bulls remain in control. A breakdown below $296 would invalidate this structure and open the door for a deeper retracement. Conclusion: Tesla has entered a critical bullish phase after months of consolidation. With volume confirmation, favorable risk-to-reward, and momentum recovery, the path of least resistance is higher. Upside targets sit near $465, with invalidation set at $296. NASDAQ:TSLA
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by KhaleelSuliman
2
XAU/USD – Gold holds 3400, waiting for breakout or pullback?⚓️ Captain Vincent – Gold Plan XAU/USD FED turns dovish, gold tests a new Storm Breaker 1. News Waves 🌍 FED – Waller: “Tariffs are a tax and do not increase inflation. I’m back with the ‘transitory’ team on inflation.” 👉 A clear signal supporting a 25bps rate cut in September , with the possibility of 1–2 more cuts in the next 3–6 months. U.S. Senate: preparing hearings for the new FED nominee S. Miran on September 4 → political & monetary spotlight. Tonight: markets await PCE data , the FED’s preferred inflation gauge. ➡️ Summary: FED leans dovish, supporting gold in the medium term. But in the short term, price still faces profit-taking pressure near resistance. 2. Technical Outlook ⚙️ On H1, gold has been forming consecutive bullish BOS and has broken above 3,400. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (Buy Zone 3375 – 3373): large volume accumulation, confluence with FVG → strong entry if price retraces. Storm Breaker 🌊 (Sell Zone 3432 – 343x): near previous ATH, likely to face heavy supply if tested. Key levels: 3375 = critical anchor support. 3438 = target resistance if gold continues higher. 3. Captain Vincent’s Map – Trade Scenarios 🪙 🔺 Golden Harbor 🏝️ (BUY Zone – Priority) Entry: 3375 – 3373 SL: 3365 TP: 3378 → 3381 → 3384 → 3387 → 33xx 🔻 Storm Breaker 🌊 (SELL Zone – previous ATH reaction) Entry: 3432 – 343x SL: 3442 TP: 3428 → 3425 → 3423 → 3420 → 33xx 4. Captain’s Note ⚓ “The gold ship has crossed 3400, but Storm Breaker 🌊 343x remains a tough challenge. If corrective waves appear, be patient at Golden Harbor 🏝️ to board the journey toward a more bullish September.”
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CaptainVincent
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🔥 Fed’s favorite inflation gauge hits: PCE arrives just as markets digest Powell’s Jackson Hole tone. 💵 Consumer under the microscope: Spending & income data reveal demand strength heading into fall. 🏭 Regional PMI wrap: Chicago PMI closes out August with a manufacturing pulse check. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — PCE Price Index (Jul) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Personal Income & Outlays (Jul) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PCE #inflation #Fed #bonds #economy #PMI #consumerconfidence
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
NAS100 (15M) – Breakout & Continuation SetupThe NAS100 is showing strong bullish momentum on the 15-minute timeframe with Heikin Ashi candles confirming trend strength. 🔹 Structure: After multiple consolidations and corrections, price formed higher lows (blue lines) and broke out of recent resistance (red zone). A clean bullish structure with impulsive legs is visible (green trend lines). 🔹 Indicators: The Alligator lines are opening upward, signaling trend continuation. RSI is holding above 70, confirming bullish strength (but caution for potential pullback). 🔹 Setup: Entry near 23,693 – 23,699. Stop loss below 23,617. Target around 23,841, giving a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. 📈 Bias: Bullish continuation towards 23,800+ as long as support holds. 📉 A break below 23,617 would invalidate the setup.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by fahimsafdar777
EUR/USD | EUR/USD Holding 1.16 – Eyes on 1.17 Next! (READ)By analyzing the EUR/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around 1.165 and has so far managed to hold above the 1.16 support zone. Based on the current trend and momentum, I expect a potential bullish move toward higher levels, with targets above 1.17. All the key supply and demand zones are marked on the chart, so keep a close eye on the price reaction around these critical levels! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
12
BTC: 114.7k, the squeeze gate — fade or break__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is bouncing back above the weekly pivot at 111.965k after a clean rejection below the 116–118k supply, with higher timeframes still constructive while mid-timeframes remain under pressure. LTF buyers are active, but a reclaim of 114.7k is required to unlock a squeeze. Momentum: 📉 Bearish on mid-TFs, 📈 tactical bounce on LTFs; 1D trend remains constructive as long as 98–100k holds. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF): 113.6–114.0k (12H supply), 114.7k (key pivot), 117.5k (major cap). - Supports (HTF): 112.6–111.9k (incl. 111.965k W pivot), 110.9k (240 pivot low), 107–108.9k (on-chain STH zone). Volumes: Normal on 1D; very high on LTFs (1H/30m/15m) during the rebound leg. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/1W = Up; 12H/6H/4H/2H = Down; 1H/30m/15m = Up → countertrend bounce that needs validation above 114.7k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: VENTE — a risk-off tilt that contradicts LTF strength and urges caution below 114.7k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategy: countertrend bounce into HTF supply; stay opportunistic but disciplined, favoring sell-the-rip until 114.7k is reclaimed. Global bias: NEUTRE VENTE while below 114.7k; bias invalidated on a 4H close above 114.7k. Opportunities: - 📉 Fade: Short 113.6–114.7k on clean rejection; target 112.6k then 111.9k. - 📈 Buy the dip: Long 112.6–111.9k on strong bullish rejections; target 113.6k then 114.7k. - 🚀 Breakout: Long a 4H close > 114.7k with volume; target 116.0k then 117.5k. Risk zones / invalidations: - Clear acceptance > 114.7k invalidates shorts → squeeze risk toward 116.8–117.5k. - Break below 110.9k invalidates dip-buys → opens 107–108.9k (on-chain). Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - NVDA: post-earnings volatility may spill over to crypto risk appetite. - Fed: high odds of a near-term cut → potential liquidity tailwind if confirmed. - Trade: Mexico–China tariff tensions add macro uncertainty. Action plan: - Plan A (fade): Entry 113.6–114.7k / Stop 115.2k / TP1 112.6k, TP2 111.9k, TP3 110.9k → R/R ~1.5–2.5. - Plan B (breakout): Entry 4H close > 114.7k (with volume) / Stop 114.0k / TP1 116.0k, TP2 117.5k, TP3 118.5k (if extension) → R/R ~1.8–2.2. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall, mid-TFs are still capping the bounce while LTFs push into supply. 1D/1W: Higher-timeframe structure intact above 98–100k; holding 111.9k allows a retest of 114.7k, then 117.5k if breakout. 12H/6H/4H/2H: Active down sequence; 113.6–114.7k clusters supply. Without a close > 114.7k, expect mean reverts into 112.6–111.9k. 1H/30m/15m: Energetic rebound with strong volumes; as long as 112.6–111.9k holds, buyers can force a 114.7k test. Major divergences/confluences: Strong confluence 111.9–114.7k; LTF volume spike not yet confirmed on HTF, pointing to range risk or rejection if 114.7k holds. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is slightly risk-off, while crypto-specific flows show measured institutional demand and increasing stablecoin dry powder. Macro events: NVDA-induced equity/AI volatility can sway crypto; high odds of a near-term Fed cut support liquidity; Mexico–China tariff friction adds uncertainty. Bitcoin analysis: ETF net inflows (+$81.4M) indicate persistent institutional bid; 1B USDT mint and exchange rotations = fresh dry powder; mixed whale flows test supply but see absorption; hashrate near ATH and custody advances (Miniscript) strengthen structural footing. On-chain data: 107–108.9k = key STH cost basis; 113.6k = 3-month cost (supply on bounces); SOPR near 1 → no capitulation, perps slightly bearish and fragile. Expected impact: Risk-off backdrop (VENTE) caps breakouts; ETF/stablecoin liquidity can still power a squeeze if 114.7k breaks. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Technical rebound sits right below a major HTF wall. - Overall trend: neutral-bearish while 114.7k holds; HTF uptrend intact in the background. - Top setup: disciplined fade at 113.6–114.7k; switch to breakout-buy only on 4H close > 114.7k. - Macro: a slight risk-off tilt (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = VENTE) and NVDA-driven equity vol can dampen momentum. Stay nimble: watch 114.7k for a squeeze trigger and defend 111.9k to keep the bounce alive. ⚠️ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali