XAUUSD: FVG Filled, DXY Weak — Does Gold Have Room to Rise?Hello everyone,
At the start of the new week, gold jumped to around 3,780 and extended gains as the USD Index (DXY) slipped to ~98 (-0.15%). A mild risk-on sentiment, along with ongoing expectations for Fed rate cuts, supported buying interest, although short-term profit-taking after the recent rally remains a risk.
On the H1 chart, price structure continues to hold higher lows, while the upward FVG around 3,792–3,805 has been filled before testing resistance at 3,818–3,822. The Ichimoku cloud offers support at 3,760–3,768, with deeper backing at 3,745–3,750 (recent swing low plus Kumo edge). Notably, rising volume on recent bullish candles suggests continued buying pressure.
From a news perspective, this week’s US calendar is packed: ADP, Jobless Claims, ISM/PMI, and Non-Farm Payrolls. Should these figures reinforce cooling USD/yields, gold may have further upside potential. Conversely, a hawkish surprise from the Fed or stronger-than-expected labour data could trigger a technical pullback toward the Kumo region.
The base case favours a mild pullback to 3,800–3,792 (new FVG) or 3,785–3,780 to “recharge” before retesting 3,818–3,822. A breakout and sustained hold above 3,822 would target 3,835–3,842 and possibly 3,855. If rejected at 3,818–3,822 and USD strengthens unexpectedly, supports at 3,768–3,760 and 3,745–3,750 will serve as key demand zones.
