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Easy method to determine next target based on candle closeHey traders today we are going to look in how to determine Daily Bias. Its actually not that complicated how many people thinks. Please forget about higher highs, and higher lows, channels and moving averages. Yes these can be also used, but we will be looking at the market in terms where is the liquidity and we will be determining the bias based on candle closes which tell us where the liquidity is resting. We will look at the Daily bias, but as I mentioned this many times in my posts - price is fractal so you can use this at any timeframe. But, If I can give you recommendations look for Higher timeframe bias on Daily and Weekly and H4 / H1 Structure and M15 entries. This post will be about continuation setups in a trend, I will touch a bit reversal because it's part of setup on LTF in the continuation. Something will be shown on bearish examples something bullish I hope you can use imagination for both sides. ⁉️ Where is the liquidity ? Always follow the Daily / Weekly candle close. 📈 Continuation If todays daily candle closed above previous days high and its still not reaching the key level, then liquidity is above todays high. Why ? Because people have intentions to sell highs to early, so and price will most likely go there. So we are bullish. Bullish Close 📈 Reversal If todays candle wicked above previous day high, but closed below , then we can expect liquidity is below Previous days low. Why? Because mostl likely traders entered fake high break out they put SL below days low. It's signs of reversal. Every significant reversal wicked above PDH and closed inside, if not seen on PDH than its on weekly. ‼️ Yes, Its that simple - this is how I predict my bias for the setups. There is obviously little bit more regarding the market context, because I want to be always selling highs and buying lows. Hence there must but pullback deep enough. I have explained how to buy low and sell highs in this post below. 🔗 Click the picture to learn more 👇 This is not about catching every significant highs and lows, you don't need it to be profitable. We are looking for the high probability trend continuation setups. We can catch highs and lows in the trend. After the stop hunt. 🧪In downtrend you want sell after stop hunt of short term highs 🧪In the uptrend you want be buying after stop hunts of short term lows I have explained more about stop hunts in this post. 🔗 Click the picture to learn more 👇https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/1J6LLshN-The-Art-of-the-Stop-Hunt-Trading/ Now, If we know the bias based on the Daily / Weekly candle close our goal is to position ourself in the right time for the continuation setup which will be during the lower timeframe reversal. 📌 Reversal Setup first lets have a look to the reversal. We want see a candle high being taken and closed below. In that case draw on liquidity is below the daily low. Sign of reversal. So we can position ourselves in a trade as described on the picture, wick above and close inside is not enough for the signifcant HTF reversal. But its enough for our continuation setup, 📌 Continuation setup We want to see bullish candle close above previous days high and not liquidity taken above that wick. Then we can assume that liquidity is still resting above and we want to position ourselves during the LTF reversal in the direction of the HTF liquidity. same case will be for this bearish example where we can see how candles closed below the previous days low and last low was not swept hence we can expect price to visit that low again, we have spotted potential reversal by wicking above the candles high and close below and than we can position ourselves to the short and target daily lows. 📌 Continuation LTF reversal timing same case now you must already see it bullish close above PDH and that high was not swept so liquidity is still above , next day is inside candle once price dips below inside candle low we cans spot reversal setup on LTF and by creation of order block we enter the position during the NY session manipulation 📌 No Stop hunt = No trade if liquidity was not taken don't enter. Yes you can miss a trade it doesnt happen always, but if it doesnt happen it's not your setup so you didnt miss anything. On this example you can see that we had almost same setup. Bullish daily candle close. High was not swept, and than 2 inside candles. 3 candle manipulated lows and another candle was expansion. Now still focus the the picture above 2nd candle that candle is a range you are entering it after that range was manipulated. Look how price reached 50% of that range , retraced and than it went full range. Its Trading model 1 and Model 2. You mostly get 2 chances to trade it. Trading ranges is in my opinion least subjective approach and unlike diagonal drawings or multiple various pattern it has defined rules. I have described this strategy in details in this post below. 🔗 Click the picture to learn more 👇https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT.P/PkQJvVm4-Complete-system-for-Day-Swing-Traders/ 📌 Final example for today - Schematics Now try it alone - step by step 1) How are candles closing 2) Was the Liquidity on the low taken ? No - price might go there - Im bearish 3) Lets wait for the LTF reversal - bearish this scheme was actually traded and posted here on Tradingview as a Continuation setup Model 1 & 2 🔗 Click picture below to learn how price action developed 👇 💊 Here are few more examples based on this trading logic 1️⃣ GBPUSD Daily range - Continuation setup Model 1 & 2 🔗 Click picture below to learn how price action developed 👇https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/VSZwqjUj-GBPUSD-Daily-CLS-Range-Key-Level-OB-Distribution-Phase/ 2️⃣ AUDUSD Daily range - Continuation setup Model 1 & 2 🔗 Click picture below to learn how price action developed 👇https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/YzC7vNOf-AUDUSD-I-Daily-CLS-range-I-Manipulation-I-Short/ 3️⃣ DOGE Daily range - Continuation setup Model 1 & 2 🔗 Click picture below to learn how price action developed 👇https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DOGEUSDT.P/t48YbkXb-DOGE-Daily-range-I-Key-Level-FVG-Setup-is-ready/ Final words Is this holy grail ? Almost. Why is this approach great ? It's mechanical system for analysis - No subjective guessing. Does it prevent me from losses ? No, I can make and I sometimes I do mistakes in analysis, Im not perfect. Dont trust me , Im just a guy from the internet. Verify it by yourself and see if you take some of it to your trading arsenal. Adapt useful, Reject useless and something specifically your own. David Perk aka Dave Fx Hunter
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by David_Perk
33
Why My Stop Loss Didn’t Trigger?”🛑 “Why My Stop Loss Didn’t Trigger?” Let’s talk about Stop Orders, Stop Limits, Spreads, and the Outside-RTH trap. Before we blame the broker, it’s crucial to understand how each order type actually works: 🔹 Market Order Executes immediately at the best available price. ✅ Guarantees execution ⚠️ Doesn’t guarantee price (can slip during volatility). 🔹 Limit Order Executes only at your specified price or better. ✅ Price control ⚠️ Might never fill if market doesn’t reach your limit or gap down. 🔹 Stop Order (Is a Stop “Market” Order) Activates when price hits your stop level, then converts into a market order. ✅ Great for stop-loss protection ⚠️ May fill at much lower price than your stop due to slippage. 🔹 Stop Limit Order Activates at the stop trigger, then becomes a limit order — meaning it only executes if the market trades at your limit price or better. ✅ Full control over fill price ⚠️ Risk of not executing at all if price moves away quickly. Regular Trading Hours (RTH): Market orders are supported → Stop Market Outside RTH (Pre/Post-market): Market orders are not supported therefore, only Stop Limit works. Now, Why Your Stop Might Not Trigger? 1- You used a Stop-Limit (not Stop Market) If the market gaps beyond your limit, there’s no fill (Buyer) at this price. Price “touched” your stop — but never traded through your limit price. 2- You traded Outside RTH During pre-market or after-hours, If you didn’t enable “Outside RTH” trading, your stop simply didn’t activate. 3- Thin Liquidity Low volume = fewer buyers/sellers near your stop → delayed or partial fills. This is especially true Outside RTH, where spreads widen and depth disappears. Or you are trading an equity or ETFs with slim volume (check the volume first before trading any asset) ✅ Recommendation: Use Stop-Limit + “Allow Outside RTH+GTC” and make your limit “marketable” to ensure execution. Offset guide for Stop-Limits (Δ): • At least 0.5× spread • Or ¼ to ½ ATR(5) for your timeframe Example for a long position: • You bought at $100, want to exit if it breaks $99.80. • Pre-market spread = $0.12 • Set: Stop = 99.80, Limit = 99.68 (≈0.12 below stop) → Gives room for spread expansion and slippage so the stop fills quickly. How to Set a Reliable Stop-Limit Market Order Type Settings Notes Equities & ETFS (RTH) Stop Market Standard stop Fastest execution Equities & ETFS (Outside RTH) Stop Limit + GTC Limit offset = Spread Needed for after-hours fills Futures / FX / Crypto Stop Market 24h trading Market fills OK The Best Setup ✅ Inside RTH → Stop Market (guaranteed execution) ✅ Outside RTH → Stop Limit + GTC enabled with marketable offset ✅ Always give buffer beyond supply/demand levels (0.1–0.3%) ✅ Watch spread and volume before placing stops Final Takeaway Your stop loss isn’t just a line on the chart — it’s an engineered safety net. Use the right order type for the session, give it breathing room, and understand how spread, liquidity, and RTH rules impact execution. Because a stop loss that doesn’t trigger… isn’t a stop loss at all. 🛑
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by DubaiTradersHub
Normal ModelThis idea will cover the Normal Model and why its important to have in your toolbelt while exploring the world of cryptocurrency. Core of the Normal Model. Normal Model Build The normal model or the normal distribution is a symmetric bell-shaped probability curve, its core is to measure the mean, median and mode these are located at the center of the distribution. Normal Model Calculation The model shows mean at the center. -1σ / 1σ - (1 standard deviation) covers 68.2% of data. -2σ / 2σ covers 95.4% of data. -3σ / 3σ covers 99.7% of data. This means that 1σ is 1 standard deviation above the mean, while -1σ is 1 standard deviation below the mean. This applies to 1σ, 2σ, 3σ and -1σ, 2σ, 3σ. Normal Model Use case We will now provide an example using a unimodal normal distribution. Example delivery time, we have a mean of 30 with a standard deviation of 5. This tells us that. 68.2% of the times are between 25 - 35 mins. Which is -1σ / 1σ. 95.4% of the times are between 20 - 40 mins.Which is -2σ / 2σ. 99.7% of the times are between 15 - 45 mins. Which is -3σ / 3σ We can now do a calculation with the formula Z = (X - μ) / σ Where X is the data point, μ is the mean, and σ is the standard deviation. The formula above is the Z-score formula and its used to measure how far a data point is from its mean in terms of standard deviations. Z-score Z-score is very valuable to learn and understand and has several use cases. For example, it’s very useful when it comes to identifying outliers a high or low z-score would be unusual compared to the data. If the data follows a normal distribution, the z-score allows you to calculate the probability, helping you understand whether an outcome or value is rare or not. Imagine you want to compare different crypto coins: Bitcoin gains a few percent while ETH gains 50%+. The z-score allows you to see which coin is moving more extremely relative to its usual volatility. This can be used to identify trends in the market that normal indicators might not be able to see or adjust your risk. Normal Model / Correlation between assets. Now that we understand how the Normal Model and Z-Score work, we can apply this knowledge to the markets. There are many use cases, but we’ll focus on the most reliable one: correlation between assets. Let’s take BTC and ETH as an example. Your correlation indicator gives you a stream of values (e.g., between -1 and +1). We take the history of this indicator's values and treat this history as our normal distribution. We then calculate the Z-Score for the current correlation value using the historical average and standard deviation of the indicator itself. This tells us if the current correlation is statistically unusual. By using Z-Scores, we can spot when the correlation is unusually high or low compared to its historical average. Use case of new knowledge. If Z-Score is very high, BTC and ETH are moving together more than usual indicating a strong trend continuation. If the Z-Score is very low, the coins are moving together less than usual could signal a potential reversal. You can use the information above to adjust your approach manage risk and entries. Now you have more then just a correlation understanding but also a statistical perspective.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by LyroRS
The Control TrapNOTE – This is a post on mindset and emotion. It is not a trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. My intention is to help you preserve your capital, focus, and composure so you can trade your own system with clarity and confidence. You’ve spent months - maybe years designing your system. You know its logic. You’ve backtested the data. You trust the probabilities. And yet… mid-trade, something shifts. The candles stall. The pullback looks deeper than usual. You feel the muscles in your stomach tighten. Your hand hovers over the mouse. Maybe I’ll just move the stop a bit tighter. Maybe I’ll exit early, just this once. Maybe I’ll skip this signal - it doesn’t look right today. It feels like precision. Like prudence. Like control. But look closer. Every time you interfere, you reinforce the belief that you can’t trust yourself. And that belief quietly eats away at your confidence - trade by trade, decision by decision. What’s really happening: When you second-guess your own rules, it’s rarely about the system. It’s about safety. Your mind is trying to avoid the discomfort of uncertainty - that raw, restless sensation that comes with surrendering control to probabilities. Your body feels it first. The quickened pulse. The micro-tension in your shoulders. The eyes darting to every tick, searching for reassurance. You’re not refining your edge - you’re soothing anxiety. The irony is that this constant adjustment creates the very instability you’re trying to avoid. The more you step in, the more you teach your brain that it can’t be trusted to hold steady. And so the cycle repeats - tighter control, lower trust, higher stress. How to shift it: Next time you feel the urge to tweak or touch the trade - pause. Notice the emotion under the surface. Is it fear? Doubt? A need to be right? Let yourself feel that pull without acting on it. Remind yourself: “I built this system for a reason. My job now is to execute, not interfere.” Try sitting through one trade, fully hands-off. Let the outcome be what it is. And observe what happens inside you, not just on the chart. That awareness is where emotional control begins. Trading well isn’t just about the quality of your system It’s about the quality of your state while running it. If this article resonated, check out the post I’d written on System Hopping. Link below:
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by soda8888
2
The best thing you can do as a crypto traderLike many who trade crypto, I’ve got a bitter taste in my mouth after Friday night’s chash. But with years in the market, I know it’ll pass. Still, I wanted to give one honest piece of advice to anyone new to this space: The best thing you can do is stay away from social media. Everything you see there is fake. The Lambos. The “next 100x.” The guys screaming into the mic about how to become a millionaire, how this coin will make you rich, or how “Trump will print millionaires again.” You’ll hear about one whale wallet buying — next hour/day, another one selling — and you’ll ask yourself: why? You’ll see the same people saying for over two years that the mythical altcoin season is just around the corner. The same people who call for a “100x” no matter what the market does. The same people who promise that XRP will hit $10,000 on November 21, and when that date passes, it magically becomes “by Christmas, by Summer, by Horses Easter (Romanian expression :) )” And when one person says something ridiculous and it gets views, a hundred others copy it. Then a thousand more come and make it even louder, more dramatic, more viral — because attention is currency, not accuracy. Social media isn’t a place for trading. It’s a place for noise. For emotional manipulation. For dopamine hits disguised as “alpha.” If you want to survive in this market, learn to think independently. The moment you stop looking for answers in influencers’ voices (of course, there are exceptions, but...), you’ll start hearing your own. And that’s when you actually begin to grow as a trader. P.S. And by the way — instead of scrolling on TikTok or whatever, pick up a real trading book. At least there, you’ll find something concrete — not another fairytale about how to become a millionaire with the next meme coin.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
39
High probability strategies for the London SessionHey traders, let's break down the London session trading . In my opinion key session for the forex trading mainly for the EUR, GBP and CHF. I ll show you two high probability setups and its conditions to trade and when not to trade. Make notes and backtests so you got statistics and you can improve yourself over time. You will find out, that if you focus only on these 2 setups on 3 mentioned currencies. You will have 3-5 high probability opportunities per week. Which is enough to make 6R gains in a week. Which is 3% on prop account with risk 0.5% per trade. And it's enough to make trading your main income. 📌 Asian Session Low volatility & accumulation phase — the market usually consolidates inside a tight range after the previous New York close. If the Asia session is trending, London will be continuation setup. 📌 London Session The highest-probability setups often occur during this session. If Asia was tight range, London usually manipulates the Asian range sweeping stops above or below then reverses and starts the true daily move. London will be Reversal setup. Often sets the daily high or low of the day 📌 New York Session Brings in the highest volume and often continuation or reversal of the London move. Based what has happen in London and on relationship with key levels and market phases. We can build market narrative for our trades. 🧪 London Continuation Bearish setup •Narrative: Asia did the manipulation → London does the continuation. • Asia session already made a manipulation into a key level • Price displaced away from that level • CIOD / OB on M15 or H1 before London open • H1: Asia runs above the stops above H1 high into a key level • It gets rejected and followed by order block and displacement • At London open, price retraces into M15 premium key level and continues in the same direction ❌Invalidation: the manipulation high/low from Asia session 🧪 London Continuation Bullish setup • Narrative: Asia did the manipulation → London does the continuation. • Asia session already made a manipulation into a key level • Price displaced away from that level • CIOD / OB on M15 or H1 before London open • H1: Asia runs bellow the stops above H1 high into a key level • It gets rejected and followed by order block and displacement • At London open, price retraces into M15 discount key level and continues in the same direction ❌Invalidation: the manipulation high/low from Asia session 🧪 London Reversal Bearish setup • Narrative: London performs the manipulation → price reverses. • Asia session consolidates near a higher timeframe key level • London open initiates the manipulation into the key level • Price reject at the key level and created M15 order block • H1: Asia consolidates Bellow Key Level • London opens, price runs Asia high into that Key Level • M15 breaks down → Change in order flow → clean short setup • Target: higher timeframe draw on liquidity (e.g., previous day low) ❌Invalidation: the London session high (manipulation point) 🧪 London Reversal Bullish setup • Narrative: London performs the manipulation → price reverses. • Asia session consolidates near a higher timeframe key level • London open initiates the manipulation into the key level • Price reject at the key level and created M15 order block • H1: Asia consolidates above the Key Level • London opens, price runs Asia high into that Key Level • M15 breaks up → Change in order flow → clean short setup • Target: higher timeframe draw on liquidity (e.g., previous day low) ❌Invalidation: the London session low (manipulation point) 🧩 to trade this method successfully you need to understand Order Blocks 🔗 Click the picture below to learn more 👇https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/LJ69Z8r4-Order-Block-Powerful-Key-level-and-Entry-confirmation/ 🕐 Timing is important 1️⃣Continuation setup can occur in first part of the London session. during the start of the settlement 2️⃣ Reversal setup needs a bit more time. I suggest don't enter before the 10 CET wait for clear change in order flow after the manipulation 🧩 Day Trading doesn't mean trading every day. For highest probability setups trade only within the higher timeframes H4/D1/W1 trends. 📌 Down Trend - Trade Stop hunts above the highs Trade London continuation or Reversal if the H4 Downtrend has run above the highs (stop hunt) It will give you chance to catch big expansion moves 📌 Up Trend - Trade Stop Hunt below the lows Trade London continuation or Reversal if the H4 Downtrend has run below the lows (stop hunt) It will give you chance to catch big expansion moves. 🧩 In other words you want be buying loses and Selling highs. 🔗 Click the picture below to learn more 👇 I have explained how to do it in this post bellow Trend is your friend so H4 is minimum trend requirement for the London session traders. But if you want to take it to next level and enter on the sniper entries during the London session, you should also know daily and weekly trends within the monthly range. This opens a whole new world where you can catch London session model with HTF range move and it can be +10RR trades if you patient enough. 📈 Bullish LTF Ranges within HTF Range Analyze HTF range (monthly) and define daily ranges, and wait for the London setups on the lows of the previous days within HTF trend. Always follow the same process in the London session on LTF. Asia either make manipulation - go with continuation setup or Asia consolidates and wait for the manipulation during the London session - go with London Reversal setup. 📉 Bearish LTF Ranges within HTF Range Analyze HTF range (monthly) and define daily ranges, and wait for the London setups on the highs of the previous days within HTF trend. Always follow the same process in the London session on LTF. Asia either make manipulation - go with continuation setup or Asia consolidates and wait for the manipulation during the London session - go with London Reversal setup. ‼️ In trading, you make most money by making precisely best decisions and controlling your risk. Hence understanding the different probabilistic scenarios we can start focusing on quality over quantity by avoiding lower probability conditions. The aim is to improve our decision making process by knowing when it's better to trade and when not. ❌ Low Probability London Session Conditions • After a series of 3 consecutive bullish daily candles - Avoid Longs. • After a series of 3 consecutive bearish daily candles - Avoid Shorts. • After FOMC event that produces an extreme range. • Ahead of NFP and CPI data release • Multiple high and medium impact news events. • The Asian Range is has been trending and is larger than 40 pips. • If the Asian Range is not visually consolidating. • Absence of a candle range ✅ High Probability London Session Conditions • The market has recently reacted off of Daily /H4 key level • The Asian Range is visually a consolidating and smaller than 40 pips. • Presence of a clean visual candle range • Presence of a higher timeframe key level. • Clean higher timeframe draw on liquidity. ✅ High Probability Intraday Setups The highest importance is placed on the H TF Daily or 4h direction: • Clean orderflow. • Clean higher timeframe draw on liquidity and directional bias. • Strong price based narrative. • Strong time based narrative. • 4h candle range • 4h Key level. • Key time Adopt this simple concept and master it. You will not need to pay any signals group and other nonsense anymore. Just sacrifice 6 months to one strategy in one time window and find repetitiveness. Build confidence based on statistical data. Become independent. ✨ Trading Mastery is reflection of your life Have a longterm plan, No Alcohol & Drugs, Ignore others, Focus on your journey , Backtest regularly, Review your weeks, Journal mistakes, Exercise, Sleep well, Read books, Walks in nature (no phone) , Meditate, Reduce social media time, Spend time with family, Live Life. Trading is hard, but not impossible. I believe in you 💪 David Perk aka Dave Fx Hunter
Education
by David_Perk
38
A simple Introduction to Footprint charts Welcome to this educational video on footprint charts . I decided to do this introduction because I feel it would benefit so many traders who are unfamiliar with this chart type and once understood it can serve as a very powerful additional confluence in your day to day trading . I hope I have delivered this lesson in a simple and understandable format for you too understand the following . The problem with just watching the price What is order flow Delta explained What is open interest How to tie it all together to produce better entries , exists and oversight into knowing when to take your trades. I welcome any feedback or questions and I really hope that this serves you well. *The link to the Tradingview guide is in the designated box on the right hand side I encourage everybody to use this resource .
CME:MBT1!Education
by SJTRADESFUTURES
2
Stop Losses: The Good, The Bad and The UglyLet’s be honest — few things trigger more emotion in trading than a stop loss being hit. But not all stop losses are created equal. Even though the title says “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly”, let’s start with the Bad — because that’s where most traders get stuck. ________________________________________ 🚫 The Bad Stop Loss The bad stop loss is the arbitrary one. You know the type: “I trade with a 50-pip stop loss.” “My stop is always 1% below entry.” No matter what the chart looks like. No matter what the volatility of the asset is. No matter if you’re trading Gold, EurUsd, or Nasdaq. This kind of stop loss doesn’t respect market structure or context — it’s just a random number. You might get lucky a few times, but over the long run, it’s a losing game. If your stop loss doesn’t make sense on the chart, then it doesn’t make sense in the market either. There’s no nuance here — it’s bad, period. ________________________________________ ✅ The Good Stop Loss The good stop loss is strategic. It’s placed based on structure, volatility, and logic — not habit or emotion. You define it after you’ve studied: • Where invalidation occurs on your idea • The volatility range of the asset • The natural “breathing room” of the market When this kind of stop loss is hit, it’s not a tragedy. It’s information. It means your prediction was wrong. You expected the market to go up, but it went down — simple as that. No panic. No revenge trading. You step away, clear your mind, and wait until the next day. Then, you redo your analysis without bias. If the new structure confirms that the market has truly flipped direction — then, and only then, you can trade the opposite way. That’s professionalism. That’s how you stay consistent. ________________________________________ 😬 The Ugly Stop Loss Now, this one hurts. The ugly stop loss is the good stop loss that gets hit… and then the market reverses immediately. You were right — but your stop was just a little too tight. That’s the emotional pain every trader knows. But here’s the key: This situation only counts as ugly if your original stop loss was good — meaning, logical and based on structure. If it was arbitrary, then it’s not ugly — it’s just bad. So, what do we do when a good stop loss turns ugly? We do exactly the same thing: • Wait until the next day. • Reanalyze the chart with fresh eyes. • If the setup is still valid, re-enter in the original direction. It’s rare for both the first and second stop to be “hunted.” Patience gives you clarity — and clarity gives you edge. ________________________________________ 💭 Final Thoughts Stop losses aren’t just a risk tool — they’re a psychological mirror. They reveal whether you trade with emotion or with structure. The bad stop loss shows a lack of respect for the market. The good stop loss shows discipline and logic. The ugly one shows that even good decisions can lead to short-term pain. But pain is not failure — it’s feedback. So the next time your stop gets hit, don’t see it as punishment. See it as a test of your ability to stay rational when the market challenges you. Because in the long run, consistency doesn’t come from winning every trade. It comes from handling the losing ones correctly. ⚖️
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
25
Stacking logarithmic (log) channels - Secret tool in crypto Ep 3Stacking Logarithmic Channels - Bitcoin's Hidden Fractal Structure | Signal & Structure Episode 3 In this third episode of Signal and Structure, we explore a powerful but little-known technique: stacking logarithmic channels to identify critical support and resistance levels in exponentially growing assets like Bitcoin. Core Technique Revealed: The Logarithmic Channel Stacking Method Start with a base channel on log scale (demonstrated from November 2011) Copy and stack identical channels above/below the original The midline of one channel becomes the boundary of adjacent channels Creates a fractal structure that respects Bitcoin's exponential growth pattern Key Principles: Always use logarithmic scale for crypto channels Midlines are as important as channel boundaries Multiple touches validate channel placement Channels maintain proportional relationships when stacked Practical Demonstrations: Historical Validation Points November 2013: Top of first channel ($1,200) December 2017: Top of second stacked channel ($19,000) November 2021: Bottom of third stacked channel ($69,000) March 2023: Bottom of fourth stacked channel ($15,500) Current Market Analysis: Bitcoin dancing around the midline of the current channel Lower boundary support around $90-92K (aligning with CME gap) Technical ceiling projections discussed with appropriate caveats Channel Construction Details: Monthly channels: Black, thickness 4, 30% opacity Weekly channels: Maroon/brown, thickness 3 Always include midlines for additional confluence Adjust opacity to prevent chart clutter Advanced Insights: Why log scale channels reveal patterns invisible on linear scale How to validate channels using midline touches The relationship between channel midlines and new channel boundaries Dealing with ambiguous channel placement (multiple valid options) Time-Saving Tips: Use TradingView's copy/paste to maintain exact channel angles Set consistent color coding for different timeframes Keep channels semi-transparent for better visibility This technique works because logarithmic scale represents percentage moves consistently - a 100% move always appears the same height regardless of price level. This creates natural harmonic levels that price tends to respect over long timeframes. While specific price projections should be taken as possibilities rather than certainties, the method itself provides a robust framework for understanding Bitcoin's price structure across its entire history. The convergence of these channel levels with other technical factors (like CME gaps) adds additional weight to these zones. Remember: Channels are guides, not guarantees. Use them for context and confluence, not as standalone trading signals.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by StructureAndSignal
Cryptocurrency : The New Normal & The World of Leverage Trading.📌 Cryptocurrency: The New Normal & The World of Leverage Trading ⚔️ ( A Sweet Killer! ) 🌍 Why Are Traders Shifting to Crypto? COINBASE:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:ETHUSD COINBASE:SOLUSD ✔️ Lower capital required compared to stocks ✔️ Fewer gaps (24/7 market = no overnight gap-up/down shockers) ✔️ High leverage opportunities (control bigger trades with smaller margin) ✔️ Global accessibility (Binance, Bybit, OKX, CoinDCX, Mudrex etc.) 📊 Types of Trading in Crypto 💠 **Spot Trading** → In India, 30% tax on capital gains ( check according to your country ). 💠 **Options & Futures** → Taxed as *Business Income* ( like F&O in stocks ). No flat % rule. ⚡ What is Leverage? 👉 Leverage means using *small capital* to control a *large trade size* , because the exchange lends you money. Think of it like **margin trading** in stocks — but much more aggressive. 🔹 Example 1 : Normal Trade style ( No Leverage ) suppose you have 💰 Capital = $10,000 Bought BTC at Price = $10,000,000 * You can buy 0.001 BTC ( 10000 ➗ 10,000,000 ). * If BTC rises 10% → Profit = $1,000 (+10%) * If BTC falls 10% → Loss = $1,000 (-10%) 👉 Risk & reward move in proportion to your capital. 🔹 Example 2 : Leverage Trade style ( 10x Leverage ) suppose you have 💰 Capital = $10,000 opted Leverage = 10x New Trade Size ( margin ) = $1,00,000 ( you can now utilize this margin amount for trading ) * You can buy 0.01 BTC ( 10000 ➗ 10,000,000 ). * If BTC rises 10% → Profit = $10,000 (+100% return) * If BTC falls 10% → Loss = FULL $10,000 ( Liquidation 🚨 ) 👉 A 10% move = your account will be blown. 🔹 Example 3: suppose you have 💰 Capital = $10,000 opted Leverage = 50x (Extreme ⚠️) New Trade Size ( margin ) = $5,00,000 ( you can now utilize this margin amount for trading ) * You can buy 0.05 BTC ( 50000 ➗ 10,000,000 ). * If BTC rises just 2% → Profit = $10,000 (+100% return) * If BTC falls just 2% → FULL $10,000 loss ( Liquidation 🚨 ) * If BTC rises just 10% → Profit = $50,000 (+500% return) * If BTC falls just 10% → FULL $10,000 loss ( Liquidation 🚨 ) 👉 Tiny moves in high volatile asset class = jackpot or wipeout/blown. ⚔️ Key Takeaways : 1️⃣ Leverage multiplies profits 💸 but also multiplies losses too💀 ( a sweet killer! ) 2️⃣ Crypto is *highly volatile* (10–20% daily moves are common) → High leverage is extremely risky, if not managed well. 3️⃣ Beginners should **never use more than 2x–3x leverage** 👉 In simple words: **Leverage is a double-edged sword ⚔️** Used wisely → You’re a king 👑 Used recklessly → You’re broke 🥀 --- 🚘 Liquidation Explained ( ex: Car Analogy ) Imagine you pay $10,000 ( as a security ) to rent a car worth $1,00,000. (That’s 10x leverage). * The car is in your hands, but $90,000 still belongs to the owner of car (exchange). * If the damage goes beyond your $10,000 margin → the owner takes back the car immediately. 👉 That’s liquidation: when your loss = your margin. 🔹 Case 1: Normal Trade style ( No Leverage ) Margin = $10,000 → Buy BTC. If BTC drops 10% → Loss = $1,000. You still have $9,000 left. ✅ No liquidation. Just a normal loss. 🔹 Case 2: 10x Leverage Trade style Margin = $10,000 New Trade Size ( margin ) = $1,00,000 * BTC rises 10% → Profit = $10,000 (+100%) * BTC falls 10% → Margin wiped = Liquidation 🚨 🔹 Case 3: 20x Leverage Trade style Margin = $10,000 New Trade Size = $2,00,000 ( margin ) * BTC rises 5% → Profit = $10,000 (+100% return) * BTC falls 5% → Margin wiped = Liquidation 🚨 👉 Just 5% against you = Account gone. 🔹 Case 4: 50x Leverage Trade style (High-Risk Zone ⚠️) Margin = $10,000 New Trade Size = $5,00,000 ( margin ) * BTC rises 2% → Profit = $10,000 (+100% return) * BTC falls 2% → FULL $10,000 loss = Liquidation 🚨 👉 Just 2% against you = Blown account = Game over. 🎯 Final Word Leverage = Power ⚡ But in crypto’s volatile world, it’s also a **trap for the impatient**. * Liquidation is directly proportionate to Leverage. * Smart traders use small leverage. * Impulsive traders burn out with high leverage. 💬 Question for you: What’s the **highest leverage** you’ve ever used in a trade? Drop it below 👇 (Be honest—we’ve all been tempted!) If this Idea gave you a value information then please, Boost it, share your thoughts in comments, and follow for more practical trading! Happy Trading & Investing! @TradeWithKeshhav and team
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by TradeWithKeshhav
Stop Blaming Market Manipulation: It’s Your Wrong InterpretationThe Excuse Factory Recently, Bitcoin dropped from 118k to 108k. Suddenly, TikTokers, YouTubers, and X posters spiraled into paranoia, copy-pasting the same narrative: the “big masterminds,” reptilians, or aliens manipulated the market to liquidate 1.7 billion in buy orders. Let’s pause for a second. A 10% pullback in Bitcoin is now considered a “market crash”? If we look deeper... Ethereum fell about 20% from its top — but this same ETH had already grown 300% since April. Was that also “manipulation”? Or does manipulation only happen when you are losing money? How do you think markets work in general? Do they move only upward, just to make you richer? The truth is simpler: there is no manipulation conspiracy here. There are no “false signals.” What exists are wrong interpretations. The Market Is Neutral The market doesn’t care about your position. It doesn’t send “false” signals; it simply moves. Price action reflects the sum of supply and demand in each moment. When traders label a signal as “false,” what they really mean is: • They misread the context. • They didn’t account for a higher timeframe. • Their stop placement wasn’t aligned with market structure or was too close. The market doesn’t lie. It only reveals how much or how little you understand it. Examples of Misinterpretation • The “false breakout” myth – What you see as a false breakout on the 1H chart may be a perfect retest on the daily timeframe. The market wasn’t wrong—you were looking at it from the wrong lens. • Stop hunting paranoia – Many traders cry “manipulation” when price takes out a cluster of stops. But think: stops are liquidity, and liquidity is where big players need to fill orders. That’s not manipulation—it’s how markets function. • News volatility – Many traders call sudden spikes around economic releases “market tricks.” In reality, it’s about liquidity gaps. There aren’t buy and sell orders evenly distributed at every price level. When major news hits, price “rearranges” itself to include the new information and moves sharply until it finds liquidity — usually around strong support or resistance zones. The Psychology Behind Blame Blaming manipulation is easier than admitting error. It protects the ego. If the loss was due to some shadowy force, you don’t have to change. But this mindset locks traders into a cycle of frustration. Progress begins when you stop blaming the market and start analyzing your own decision-making. Case Study: Ethereum’s Current Setup As the saying goes, a picture says more than a thousand words. Since April, Ethereum has rallied over 300% in just six months. On this path upward, the chart shows two apparent “false breaks” of support. The question now is: will the current move be the third “false break,” or the first real break? As I wrote in yesterday’s analysis, confirmation is key... But even if ETH drops further, say to 3600, nothing truly changes in the broader picture. Such a move would only be a healthy correction of the trend that started in April — perfectly aligning the price with the 38% Fibonacci retracement and the rising trendline support. Conclusion: The Trader’s Responsibility There are no false signals. There is no hidden enemy in the market. There is only your interpretation.
BINANCE:ETHUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
49
Importance of DXY for all CFD and Futures Assets The 1H DXY chart shows a clear shift in orderflow from bearish to bullish, framed within an auction-theory context where price continuously seeks liquidity to facilitate rebalancing. Early in the week, supply overwhelmed demand, driving the dollar lower into a region of resting liquidity (sell-side liquidity/SSL). This liquidity grab served as the catalyst for demand to reassert itself, evident in the sharp recovery that flipped prior supply zones into demand. The chart highlights a demand flip and multiple demand re-entries, showing how buyers defended levels once liquidity was secured. Auction-wise, the market auctioned downward until sellers exhausted at a support zone near SSL, where bids were reintroduced. This led to an imbalance that buyers corrected by driving higher, reclaiming inefficiencies (noted in the imbalance box). Subsequent consolidation acted as a re-auctioning phase to validate demand before continuation. Now, the bullish orderflow is steering price toward resting liquidity overhead (draw on liquidity), with demand zones forming higher as the market reprices. In short: orderflow reveals a demand-driven transition, with the auction process shifting value upward after clearing downside liquidity. The next key behavior will be how DXY reacts once it taps into overhead resistance and whether new demand sustains the auction higher or supply reasserts.
TVC:DXYEducation
by FervTrades
Introduction to a Trading System 1: Setting timeframes + bonusIntroduction to a Trading System: Setting Timeframes & Logarithmic Scaling This educational video is the first in the "Signal and Structure" series, where an experienced crypto trader with 5+ years in cryptocurrency and additional forex background shares their systematic approach to chart analysis and trading. Key Topics Covered: Logarithmic Scale Fundamentals - Why log scale is essential for cryptocurrency trading - How it provides better perspective on price movements across different time periods - Demonstrates using Bitcoin's price history how log scale reveals the true magnitude of moves and shows market maturation Strategic Timeframe Selection System - Introduces a unique 5-timeframe system based on dividing by 4: - Monthly (30 days) - the base unit - Weekly (≈30÷4 days) - 2-Day (≈week÷4) - 12-Hour (48 hours÷4) - 3-Hour (12÷4) Trading Philosophy - Emphasizes simplification over complexity in trading - Explains why using non-standard timeframes (2-day instead of daily) provides an edge - Discusses how higher timeframes show cleaner structure while lower timeframes display more chaos - Advocates for making trading easier by reducing noise and confusion Practical Insights - Higher timeframes (monthly/weekly) show more reliable patterns and are watched by institutional traders - Lower timeframes become increasingly chaotic but still contain tradeable patterns - The importance of stepping back to see the bigger picture in markets The instructor brings a unique perspective influenced by classic traders like Gann and Wyckoff, and has developed over 140 custom indicators for their trading system. The video sets the foundation for understanding market structure before diving into signals and trading strategies in future episodes.
Education
by StructureAndSignal
2
The Technical Analysis Superpower (That Isn’t Real)Imagine this: You spot the perfect candlestick pattern. It feels like the market’s secret code just unlocked. You hit buy. An hour later you’re staring at a loss, asking yourself: “What the hell just happened?” That’s the illusion of control at play. I’ve been there. We all have. How the illusion shows up: You believe one pattern guarantees the next move. You stack indicators thinking more = more control. You convince yourself you’ve finally “cracked the code.” The emotional side: It feels good to play wizard. Technical analysis (TA) gives us tools, but it doesn’t give certainty. The market doesn’t care about your Fibonacci line or your perfect breakout. TA only tilts the odds—not controls them. So what actually matters? Keep it simple: 2–3 tools max. Start with trend. When you are following the higher timeframe bias, you are following the trend. The top 5-6% of traders get 90-100% of their profit from a selective bias. Always ask: “If I’m wrong, where’s my exit? wher's my Stop loss?” Backtest and track results. Aim for probability, not perfection. Respect patience. Most fakeouts die fast—wait for confirmation. Bottom line: TA is not a superpower. It’s a probability framework. The real edge isn’t in control—it’s in discipline, trend recognition, and managing yourself when the market doesn’t care. 👉 What’s your biggest illusion of control story? Drop it in the comments—I want to hear how TA has tricked you. — Skeptic
Education
by SkepticLab
3
Best Lot Size for Gold Trading (XAUUSD) Explained If you trade Gold with fix lot, I prepared for you a simple manual how to calculate the best lot size for your XAUUSD trading account. Step 1 Find at least the last 10 trades that you took on Gold. Step 2 Measure stop losses of all these trades in pips Step 3 Find the trade with the biggest stop loss In our example, the biggest stop loss is 680 pips Step 4 Open position size calculator for XAUUSD Step 5 Input your account size, 1,5% as the risk ratio. In "stop loss in pips" field, write down the pip value of your biggest stop loss - 680 pips in our example. Press, calculate. For our example, the best lot size for Gold will be 0.22. The idea is that your maximum loss should not exceed 1,5% of your account balance, while the average loss will be around 1%. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Revealing The Secrets Of Pro Traders👋Hello everyone, if you’re just starting out with trading, this post is for you. Trading can be exciting, but if you’re not careful, you’ll quickly become prey. Here are 5 common mistakes beginners often make: 1. Opening Too Many Positions At Once When I first started, I thought using high leverage would help me make money quickly. But opening multiple trades at once can wipe out your account after just a small market reversal. Example: A trader uses high leverage to buy XAUUSD, but when the price drops 10%, his account gets completely “burned.” Solution: Always assess your personal conditions, calculate the profit you expect, how much loss you can handle, and set clear goals. I actually have a formula for this — if you’d like to know, just leave me a comment below. 2. Chasing Losses… And Losing Even More It’s that feeling of desperation, right? You take a big loss on your first trades, then try to win it all back in the next ones, doubling down again and again… only to lose more. I know the feeling of wanting to recover your money right away. But trying to chase losses by overtrading only makes things worse. Stop when you realize you’re acting out of emotion. Sometimes it’s better to accept a small loss and wait for a better opportunity, rather than risk blowing your account completely. That’s a hard lesson I learned from multiple wipeouts. 3. Ignoring Risk Management Tell me you’re not guilty of this one. Many beginners think stop-losses or take-profits aren’t necessary because they believe they’ll “get lucky.” But skipping risk management is exactly why accounts get wiped out. Example: A trader ignores stop-loss, and then unexpected news hits the market. The price reverses instantly, and the account vanishes “in a heartbeat.” That’s why I always remind my students: set TP and SL on every trade and keep a close eye on important market news. 4. FOMO – The Fear of Missing Out This is one of the feelings almost all of us experience when trading. Forget being an expert for a moment—when you’re new and see prices skyrocketing, with everyone around you buying, it feels like if you don’t jump in right now, you’ll miss your chance. But this impatience often leads to poor decisions. You end up buying without proper market analysis, and when losses come, you don’t even understand why—it’s simply because you were chasing the crowd. 5. The Biggest Factor – Lack of Knowledge This one overshadows all the other mistakes. Many beginners rely only on tips from others or “tricks” without understanding indicators, technical analysis, or trading strategies. Maybe you’ve thought: “I just need to follow what others do, the market will be fine.” But in the long run, if you don’t fully understand your actions, you can’t control risk and the market will eventually knock you down. At that point, you’ll be left either begging for help or starting from scratch with your learning—too late. In summary, success in trading comes down to three essentials: Managing emotions Managing risk Continuously building knowledge and practicing consistently In the coming posts, I’ll share more valuable lessons to help you overcome these challenges. You can study them, practice in a demo account, and then apply them to real trading when you’re ready. It will be incredibly useful. If today’s lesson resonated with you and you’re excited for the next posts, hit the like button🚀—I’d love your support. Good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Kevinn_Nguyen
41
Forget the USD–Gold Correlation: Trade What MattersI took my first steps in the markets back in 2002 with stock investments. Real trading, however—the kind involving leverage, speculation, and active decision-making—began for me in 2004. Like any responsible beginner, I started by taking courses and reading the classic trading books. One of the first lessons drilled into me was the inverse correlation between the US dollar and gold. Fast forward more than 20 years, and for the past 15, XAUUSD has been my primary focus. And here’s the truth: I’m here to tell you that relying on USD–gold correlation is a mistake. In this article, I’ll explain why you should avoid it, and more importantly, I’ll show you how to think like a “sophisticated” trader—especially if you can’t resist looking at the DXY . Let’s Dissect the Myth And for those who will say: “How on earth can you call this a mistake? Everyone knows gold moves opposite to the dollar!” — let’s dissect this step by step. There couldn’t be a better example than 2025. We’re in the middle of a clear bullish trend in gold. Prices are climbing steadily, but not only against USD. If gold were truly just the inverse of DXY, this overall rally wouldn’t exist. But it does. Why? Because the real driver isn’t the dollar falling — it’s demand for gold itself . Central banks are buying, funds are reallocating, and investors see gold as a store of value. The Simple Logic That Breaks the Correlation If it were truly a mirror correlation, then XAU/EUR would have been flat for years. Think about it: if gold only moved as the “inverse of the dollar,” then against other currencies it should show no trend at all. But the charts tell a completely different story. Gold has been rising not just in USD terms, but also in EUR, GBP, and JPY. That means the move is not about the dollar being weak — it’s about gold being in demand. This simple observation destroys the illusion of a strict USD–gold inverse correlation. If gold climbs across multiple currencies at the same time, the driver can’t be the dollar. The driver must be gold itself. Why Correlation Thinking Creates Frustration This is exactly why I tell you to ignore the so-called correlation: because it distracts you. You end up staring at the DXY when in reality, you’re trading the price of gold. And that’s where frustration kicks in. You’re sitting on a position, watching the dollar index going higher, and you start yelling at the screen: “DXY is going up, so why isn’t gold falling? Why is my short position bleeding instead of working?” I’ve been there many years ago, I know that feeling. But here’s the truth: gold doesn’t care about your correlation. It doesn’t care that DXY is green, red or pink. It moves on its own flows. And when you finally accept that, your trading becomes much cleaner. You stop being trapped by illusions and start focusing on the only thing that matters: the demand and supply of gold itself. Where the Confusion Comes From So where does all this confusion come from? Let’s take an example: imagine we get a very bad NFP number. That translates into a weaker USD. What happens? XAUUSD ticks higher. Now, most traders immediately scream: “See? Inverse correlation!” But that’s not what’s really happening. The move you’re seeing is just a re-alignment of gold’s price in dollar terms. It’s noise, not a fundamental shift in gold’s trend. If gold is in a downtrend overall, this kind of move doesn’t suddenly make it bullish. It’s just a temporary adjustment because the denominator (USD) weakened. On the other hand, if gold itself is already strong, such an event can act as an accelerator, pushing the trend even stronger. The key is this: the dollar can influence the short-term pricing of XauUsd, but it doesn’t define the trend of gold. That trend is driven by demand for gold as an asset. A Recent Example That Says It All Let’s take a very recent example. Over the past month, DXY has been stuck in a range — no breakout, no major trend. Yet gold hasn’t just pushed higher in USD terms, it has made new all-time highs in XAU/EUR, XAU/GBP, and other currencies as well. Why? Because gold rose. Not because the dollar fell, not because of some neat inverse chart overlay. Gold as an asset was in demand — globally, across currencies. This is the ultimate proof that gold trades on its own flows. When buyers want gold, they don’t care whether DXY is flat, rising, or falling. They buy gold, and the charts across multiple currencies show it. What Sophistication Really Looks Like If you really want to be sophisticated, here’s what you do: You see a clear bullish trend in XAUUSD. At the same time, you notice a clear bearish trend in EURUSD — which means the dollar is strong. Most traders get stuck here. Their brain short-circuits: “Wait, how can gold rise if the dollar is also strong?” But the sophisticated trader doesn’t waste time arguing with a textbook correlation. Instead, they look for the trade that makes sense: buy XAU/EUR. Because if gold is strong and the euro is weak, the real opportunity isn’t in fighting with DXY — it’s in positioning yourself where you can earn more. That’s not correlation thinking. That’s flow thinking. Final Thoughts The dollar–gold inverse correlation is a myth that refuses to die. Traders cling to it because it feels simple and safe. But real trading requires letting go of illusions and facing complexity head-on. Gold is an independent asset. It rises and falls because of demand, not because the dollar happens to be moving the other way. Once you stop staring at DXY and start trading the flows that actually drive gold, you’ll leave frustration behind and step into sophistication. 🚀 If you still need DXY to tell you where gold is going, you’re not trading gold — you’re trading your own illusions.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
13
Enhancing My Trading Strategy with a Free Backtesting ToolI wanted to share a recent step I’ve added to my trading process that’s been helping me refine my approach: backtesting. Since I treat trading as a continuous learning journey, I’ve been using backtesting to evaluate strategies before I even consider using them on my demo account. I’ve been testing a web-based backtesting platform that’s free to use. It lets me run through historical data much faster than trading in real-time, which helps me see how certain ideas might play out under different market conditions. I usually set a starting balance, pick a currency pair like EURUSD, and mark up the chart with my key levels—whether it’s structure, order blocks, or ranges. One thing I’ve learned is to save my layout often. The free version includes ads, and I’ve lost a few setups by not saving before an ad refresh. It’s a small thing, but it reminds me to be meticulous. The biggest benefit for me has been practicing risk management in a realistic but pressure-free setting. Before I place a simulated trade, I calculate my position size based on a fixed percentage risk. This helps me build discipline around controlling losses before worrying about profits. I’m not here to teach or advise—just sharing what’s been working for me as I learn. If you’ve been using backtesting as part of your process, I’d be curious to hear what insights you’ve gained.
Education
by TheInvestor_Diary
4
How Many Indicators Are Too Many? I have been trading for around 5 years and in that time, I lost money and hope more often than I can count. A common coping strategy I use when in a time of loss is to strip all the "completely useless" indicators from my charts. And 6 months later, I have more than I had before. Recently, I have actually started to earn small amounts of money from the markets consistently but my indicator problem persists. The picture above is an example of just some of the indicators I use. So now I ask the question, -How many indicators are too many? There really is not an answer despite what those on reddit might tell you. I seem to always have this fantasy that I will find the perfect chart set-up with all my indicators telling me just what I want to know. And of course TradingView has Pinscript which only makes my habit worse by allowing me to create exactly what I want. As I was thinking about chart layouts this morning I came to a conclusion that my trading will always be evolving and the way in which I view the visual output of markets will change as well. There will most likely never be a chart set-up that I will use for the next 20 years. Even when I find my edge, the process of trading will still evolve. My "edge" will never be an indicator or a set of indicators . So I wrote this to try and help those that are experiencing the same dilemma. Just know that you are not alone in your obsession with finding that perfect layout. Add 100 indicators to your chart and then delete them all when you feel they don't belong. You will never find that perfect indicator but but neither will you stop looking. It may seems like it is all a waste of time but I assure you that everything you experience in trading is worth it and progress does happen . Safe Trading, Frank
AMEX:SPYEducation
by NoMorePaperTrading
1
Leverage in Crypto: The Sexy Lie vs. The Boring TruthLet’s be honest: the vast majority of crypto traders don’t come with a trading background. Not in stocks, not in futures, and definitely not in leveraged Forex. Most enter crypto because of hype, the dream of fast money, and stories of overnight millionaires. That’s why leverage in crypto is so dangerous. It’s not just a tool — it’s a trap for the unprepared. ________________________________________ What leverage really means To keep it simple: with 100× leverage, every 1% move in your favor doubles your account, but every 1% move against you wipes it out completely. 👉 No matter the asset — Forex, Gold, Bitcoin, or meme coins — at 100× leverage you only have 1% room to be wrong. ________________________________________ Yesterday’s market moves – a perfect example Yesterday, markets exploded across all asset classes: • EURUSD → +1% • Gold (XAUUSD) → +1.5% • Bitcoin (BTC) → +4% • Ethereum (ETH) → +8% • PEPE, other coins and meme coins → +10%+ Now imagine trading them with 100× leverage, catching the bottom and selling at the top: • EURUSD → +100% (account doubled) • Gold → +150% • BTC → +400% • ETH → +800% • PEPE → +1000% Sounds incredible, right? But here’s the other side: with 100× leverage, a –1% move against you = instant liquidation. ________________________________________ Effective Leverage – The Hidden Concept Effective leverage — you rarely see it explained. Why? Because it’s not sexy, not marketable, and most of all… exchanges and brokers don’t want this to be very clear. Nominal leverage (the 50×, 100×, 200× banners you see everywhere) sells dreams. Effective leverage, on the other hand, shows the brutal reality: how much exposure you actually control compared to your account size. Formula: Effective Leverage=Position Size/Account Equity • Example 1 (Forex): $1,000 account, $5,000 EURUSD position = 5× effective leverage. • Example 2 (Crypto): $100,000 account, BTC at $100k, controlling 5 BTC ($500,000 position) = 5× effective leverage. 👉 Nominal leverage is the ad. Effective leverage is the invoice. And once you understand it, the marketing magic disappears. ________________________________________ A concrete example – Solana trade Let’s take a real setup I shared recently on Solana: • Entry: buy at $200 • Stop Loss: $185 → risk on the asset = -7.5% Case 1 – 100× leverage From 200 → 198 (–1%), you’re liquidated. You never reach your stop at 185. Case 2 – 10× effective leverage Every 1% move = 10% account swing. You could survive down to 180, but you’d be under constant stress. Case 3 – 2× effective leverage (my choice) Let’s say you control $2,000 worth of SOL, effectively $4,000 exposure. • If Solana falls to 185 (–7.5%), that’s a –15% hit to your account. Painful, but survivable. • If Solana rises to 250 (+25%), with 2× leverage you make +50% on allocated capital. • Risk–reward ratio: ~1:3.3 — sustainable, worth taking. ________________________________________ The psychological factor This is where leverage breaks most traders. • With 100× leverage, every 0.2% fluctuation moves your account by 20% (≈ $400 on a $2,000 account). Every 1% move = liquidation. How do you stay calm? You don’t. • With 2× effective leverage, a 1% fluctuation only moves your account 2% (≈ $40). Boring? Maybe. Survivable? Absolutely. Now imagine: you enter SOL at 200 with 100× leverage. • At 202, you’ve doubled your account. • At 210, you’ve made 5×. But will you hold? No. Because: 1. If you’re awake, the stress of watching wild swings (in money, not in price) forces you to close early. 2. If you do hold, it’s usually because you were asleep — or the move happened in a single violent candle. Markets never move in a straight line. They go 200 → 202 → 201 → 203 → 201 → 205… At 100× leverage, every retracement feels like life or death. At 2× leverage, it’s just noise. ________________________________________ Conclusion Leverage isn’t evil. It’s just a tool. But in crypto, with insane volatility and inexperienced traders, it becomes a weapon of mass destruction. • At 100×, you’re gambling on the next 1% very small move. • At 10×, you’re constantly stressed and one bad move away from ruin. • At 2×–5× effective leverage, you can actually follow your plan, respect your stop, and let your targets play out. Trading isn’t about adrenaline. It’s about survival. High leverage destroys accounts — and discipline. Small, controlled leverage gives you the one thing you need most in trading: time. P.S. Of course, the choice is yours — what leverage you decide to use, whether you take into consideration the concept of effective leverage, or how you handle the psychological impact of high leverage. But at least now, you know. 🙂
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
19
MVRV Demystified: A Guide to Tops, Bottoms & RiskFinancial nerds love to give tools weird names to make them look like fortune-tellers. Some actually are predictive—like grandma’s dreams!🌙 I’m Skeptic from Skeptic Lab , and today we’re talking about MVRV .. First off, it can’t predict the future , but it tells you four key things:🔮 Identifying market tops and bottoms Assessing market sentiment Trading strategies Risk management What is MVRV? 🔍 Imagine you have a box of chocolates. You want to know how many you have and what they’d be worth if everyone decided to buy or sell. MVRV is a number that shows: “How the current value of everyone’s chocolates compares to the price they originally paid.” High MVRV → people are selling chocolates for much more than they paid → expensive market. Low MVRV → people are selling for less than they paid → cheap market, potential buy zone. In short: MVRV is like a green/red light for buying and selling chocolates 🍫🚦. The Formula ➗ Market Value (MV): total value of all coins at current market price. Realized Value (RV): total value based on last on-chain transaction price — a "truer" cost basis, filtering out short-term volatility. Why Z-Score? ✨ MVRV alone sometimes misleads: In bull markets , it can stay high for weeks → fake sell signals. Low MVRV can just be short-term noise. One week after MVRV was introduced, David Puell and Murad Mahmudov created the MVRV Z-Score. It standardizes MVRV against historical mean and volatility, showing if current levels are truly abnormal. Z > 7 → speculative top Z < 0 → deep undervaluation, potential bottom Applications 🎯 Spotting Tops & Bottoms: High MVRV (>3.5) = late bull top Low MVRV (<1) = bear bottom, strong buy Z-Score filters extremes Market Sentiment: High = greed, low = fear → emotional barometer Trading Moves: Long-term: buy <1, hold Medium-term: sell >3.7, buy <1 Timebound MVRV (365d, 60d) shows short vs long-term holder pressure Risk Management: Identifying potential profit zones Checks if BTC is overpriced/undervalued vs RV Works best combined with SOPR, NVT, macro factors Limitations 🌡️ Sensitive to volatility Assumes on-chain movements = sales (not always) Blind to shocks (regulations, macro events) Overvaluation can persist → mistimed sell signals Needs historical data → weak for new coins Not standalone → combine with other metrics Conclusion 📍 MVRV compares Market Value to Realized Value → shows over- or undervaluation Identifies market tops and bottoms Z-Score filters noise, highlights abnormal levels Historically effective in Bitcoin cycles Best used with other metrics for holistic analysis Boost for more Skeptic takes :) 📈 Disclaimer: This article was written for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.
Education
by SkepticLab