BTC/USDT – 4H Technical OutlookBTC/USDT – 4H Technical Outlook
📊 Market Structure:
Bitcoin recently experienced a bearish shift in structure (CHoCH + BOS to the downside) after being rejected from the premium zone around 115,000.
After forming a strong swing low near 108,000, the market rebounded and printed a higher low, suggesting short-term bullish correction within an overall bearish context.
Currently, price is testing the EMA confluence zone near 111,000, which is acting as short-term resistance.
📈 Key Levels:
Resistance Zone (Equilibrium / Supply Zone): 113,500 – 115,000
Current Reaction Zone: 110,500 – 111,500
Support Zone: 108,000 – 109,000
⚙️ EMA Confluence:
The 89 EMA (blue) and 200 EMA (yellow) are both positioned above current price, confirming a bearish market structure.
Price is now testing the 89 EMA from below — a typical retracement area before continuation down.
📉 Momentum (Stochastic RSI):
The Stochastic RSI has turned down sharply from the overbought zone, indicating decreasing bullish momentum and possible continuation of the downtrend.
🎯 Trading Scenarios:
Scenario 1 – Sell (Trend Continuation)
Entry: 110,800 – 111,500 (retest of EMA zone)
Stop Loss: 113,000
Take Profit: 108,000 → 107,000
Confluence: EMA rejection + bearish structure + RSI reversal from overbought
Scenario 2 – Buy (Reversal Confirmation Only)
Entry: 113,500 – 114,000 (after clear breakout & retest)
Stop Loss: 112,500
Take Profit: 115,000 → 116,000
Confluence: Break above 89/200 EMA + BOS confirmation
💡 Summary Insight:
BTC/USDT remains bearish-biased below 111,500–113,500.
Expect a possible retest of EMA resistance before continuation toward 108,000.
Only a strong 4H candle close above 113,500 would shift momentum to bullish.
