ETH/USD Daily — Support Bounce Setup in a Strong Downtrend
Chart Analysis:
Market Structure:
ETH is clearly in a bearish trend on the daily timeframe. Lower highs and lower lows are intact after a sharp rejection from the major supply zone around 3,300–3,400 (yellow zone).
Impulsive Sell-Off:
The recent move down is strong and aggressive, suggesting capitulation-style selling rather than a slow grind. This often precedes at least a technical relief bounce.
Key Support Zone (Red): ~1,900–2,000
Price has tapped into a well-defined demand/support area, where buyers previously stepped in. The long lower wicks here hint at buying interest and absorption.
Proposed Entry:
The marked entry is based on a support reaction, not a trend reversal. This is a counter-trend long, so it’s tactical, not positional.
Target Zone (Green): ~2,450–2,550
This zone aligns with:
Prior structure support → resistance flip
Likely liquidity resting above
Mean reversion after an extended drop
Bias & Expectations:
Short-term: Bullish relief bounce toward the green zone
Medium-term: Still bearish unless ETH reclaims and holds above ~2,600–2,700
Expect high volatility—clean V-shaped recoveries are rare in this context
Risk Note:
If price loses the 1,900 support decisively, the setup is invalidated and opens the door for continuation toward lower psychological levels.
📌 Summary:
This chart shows a high-risk, counter-trend bounce play off major daily support, targeting a logical resistance zone above. Good for disciplined traders, not for blind bottom-catching.
Trend Analysis
Support Zone Reaction with Upside Liquidity TargetMarket Read (from your chart)
Price swept sell-side liquidity and reacted strongly from the support zone
Clear BOS to the downside, then bullish reaction → looks like short-term bullish retracement / reversal
You’ve marked:
Support zone: ~4,800 – 4,826
Target / liquidity: ~4,940 – 4,943
This favors a scalp / intraday long with tight risk, not a swing.
🎯 Trade Setup (Small SL)
✅ Entry (Best & Safer)
Buy on pullback into demand
Entry: 4,826 – 4,830
Confluence area: prior reaction + support zone top
Wait for bullish candle close / rejection wick on lower TF (1–5m)
❌ Stop Loss (Tight)
SL: 4,800
Risk: ~26–30 points
If price closes cleanly below 4,800, the setup is invalid
This is a true small SL — no room for chop.
🎯 Take Profit Levels
TP1 (safe): 4,858 (range high / first liquidity)
TP2: 4,900
TP3 / Final: 4,940 – 4,943 (your marked target liquidity)
👉 After TP1, move SL to BE to protect capital.
⚠️ Aggressive Entry (Only if experienced)
Entry: 4,805 – 4,810
SL: 4,785
Higher R:R, but lower win rate
Invalidation
❌ No longs if:
Strong bearish close below 4,800
No bullish reaction inside the support zone
Summary
Bias: Intraday bullish retracement
Entry: 4,826–4,830
SL: 4,800
Target: 4,858 → 4,900 → 4,940
NATGATE: POTENTIAL TREND REVERSALStock recently rebounded from 52-week low at 0.92 and is trading 1.02.
RBS at 1.00 is holding as short-term support.
Kijun-sen sits close below price and acts as immediate support.
Price has now successfully breakout above the downtrend line, which is an early and important signal of a potential trend reversal.
Price is attempting to reclaim the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, indicating improving short-term momentum.
Although price is still below the Kumo, the cloud ahead is thinning, which often precedes a bullish transition phase.
Chikou Span is rising and attempting to move away from price congestion, supporting a recovery bias.
Long-term downtrend with a potential base/reversal developing after the 52-week low. Crossing the trendline + support at 1.00 + Kijun support are constructive signs for a short-to-medium-term bounce.
Sustained daily closes above the downtrend line and above 1.05–1.08 with rising volume. A close back below 0.98–1.00 would invalidate the immediate bullish view.
Residual bearish bias while price remains below the Kumo and prior structure; false breakouts are common from oversold lows.
Entry options
Aggressive: buy small position now ~1.00–1.03 with tight stop.
Preferred (lower risk): wait for close >1.08 or a clean retest of 1.00 that holds.
Stop-loss
Conservative SL: 0.96 (below Kijun / below 1.00 support).
Protective SL: 0.90–0.92 (below 52‑week low) for larger position only after confirmation.
Targets & exits
Target 1: RM1.05 – RM1.08
Target 2: RM1.12 – RM1.15
Target 3 (extended): RM1.25; trailing stop (moving SL to breakeven, then use ATR or below recent swing low).
Exit immediately if price closes decisively below 0.98 on high volume.
Notes:
1. Analysis for education purpose only.
2. Trade at your own risk.
AAVE dump may not be over, macro triangle invalidatedCRYPTOCAP:AAVE macro triangle analysis was finally invalidated with the thrust lower. Instead, wave B of an ABC seems to be underway with an initial target of the altCoin golden pocket 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and High Volume Node support, $70.
Weekly RSI has a little room to fall until oversold. There is bullish divergence from July 1st 2024 bottom.
AAVE is again demonstrating its abnormal distribution of price action.
Safe trading
#ID/USDT Ready to go up#ID
The price is moving within a descending channel on the hourly timeframe. It has reached the upper boundary and is heading towards breaking it. A retest of this boundary is expected.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing an upward trend, as it has approached the upper boundary. A bearish reversal is expected.
There is a key support zone in green at 0.0500. The price has bounced from this zone several times and is expected to bounce again.
A consolidation trend is observed above the 100-period moving average, which we are approaching. This trend supports a decline towards this level.
Entry Price: 0.0523
Target 1: 0.0539
Target 2: 0.0556
Target 3: 0.0578
Stop Loss: Above the green support zone.
Remember this simple thing: Money management.
For any questions, please leave a comment.
Thank you.
BNB/USD Main Trend. 11 18 2025Logarithm. Time frame: 1 week.
🔵Main trend: lower zone of the ascending channel As previously shown on HBAR.
🟡🟣Secondary and local trends
There's a pullback to the breakout zone, that is, to the mirror level of the former resistance of the large bowl (currently strong support), meaning the price is retesting the key zone, which are the historical highs of the previous 2021 cycle. This is the same as the 72,000 zone for BTC in the past.
🟣🔄 A breakout of the local designated trend line (purple) is a local trend reversal. But, in general, it's important to understand that this is a retest of the previous breakout zone.
🟢🔄 Confirmation and holding of the price above this zone is astronomical, and any news is just fiction to justify a move into the next zone, already a distribution.
🔴🔄 Failure to hold this zone means a temporary immersion in the previous consolidation.
According to the general market trend (market phase) and the asset's liquidity (money in the project), a chart pattern is formed.
______________________________________________________________________
⚠️ Overall, I think Binance will lose "$ liquidity," that is, users, due to unfair speculative play (controlled by "Big Brother") and a prolonged lack of exchange functionality updates. Perhaps this won't happen immediately, but gradually. But I'm sure many would really prefer not to see this happen instantly. It's unlikely that the exchange itself will survive long-term competition from new exchanges with fresh functionality and "users who aren't offended."
1️⃣ It's worth remembering that the most liquid and popular exchanges in the 2017 cycle were Bittrex and Poloniex. Where are they now? Bittrex is a scam. Poloniex has completely lost liquidity.
2️⃣ In the 2021 cycle of highs, FTX and Binance. The former is a scam. The latter is still around.
0️⃣ The main villain is a scam (everyone understands what, who, and why), which always scams everything monetary for its own interests and monopolizes the "fresh mushrooms" of the market. There is one, which is equivalent to the main "market maker." The one who "created" and "destroyed" dinosaurs from the very beginning, including the MtGox exchange back in 2013, squeezing out "all the available circulating BTC" at the time. This has been his playing field since the very beginning of the crypto bubble.
You're on someone else's playing field, so remember that and accept their rules. You're playing by the rules of those who set the traps for you, bypassing them. These rules have little effect on the masters of the speculative game. Accept the game and the risks, or leave...
3️⃣👀What will happen this time? Which liquid exchange will be "killed" to destroy the dollar in a bear market and trigger a super-negative environment? One can only guess. There are several candidates (as well as highly liquid hyped cryptocurrencies) that could influence the overall trend and shape a certain, extremely pessimistic opinion among the majority. Don't guess, you might miss the mark.
🧠 Therefore, when trading and holding cryptocurrencies and USD, diversify your storage and trading locations.
1️⃣ Cold or hardware wallets (a portion of your funds, if you're a holder, is larger; if you're a trader, it's smaller).
2️⃣ + Liquid exchanges (3-4, two isn't enough, as if one goes to the "other world"), you'll lose 50% of your trading funds, and that's a lot. To recover, you need to increase your capital not by 50%, but by 100%. For hamsters, this is "simple," but for traders, it's not.
⚠️ A paragraph off-topic for trading? A reminder of the most important thing, the safety of your money, is not superfluous. What's the point of earning if you'll lose everything? This is not superfluous for smart people who work and earn, rather than paying the market for their emotions and chatting in chats about how rich and broke they are.
Risk must always be justified and controlled by you. This is the foundation of foundations. If this isn't the case, then you're building a speculative house on a clay foundation, trying only to guess the price. Sooner or later it will collapse, and the later it happens, the more painful it will be.
Long trade 📈 EURJPY — Buy-Side Sentiment Analysis (15-Minute)
Observed: Mon 26th Jan 2026
Session: London AM
Time Reference: 6:00 am (NY time)
📌 Trade Details
Entry: 186.241
Take Profit: 187.418 (1.86%)
Stop Loss: 185.954 (0.14%)
Risk–Reward: 12.89R
🟢 Directional Bias
Buy-side reversal → continuation:
Price action indicates a completed sell-side run, followed by institutional absorption and a controlled transition back into bullish order flow.
🧠 Market Sentiment Overview
An extended bearish leg engineered downside liquidity
Sell-side liquidity swept clean into the 182.00 handle
Aggressive rejection from the lows signals sell-side exhaustion
Buyers stepped in decisively → sentiment flipped from risk-off to accumulation.
🧩 Structural Context
Bearish structure completed its objective (equal lows / sell-side pool)
Sharp displacement higher confirms local bullish BOS
The market transitioned from deep discount back toward equilibrium
Structure now supports mean reversion higher, not continuation lower.
📊 Volume Profile & Value
Heavy volume absorption at the lows
Value began migrating higher post-sweep
Acceptance above in the raday value confirms a bullish auction response
🟦 PD Arrays / Fair Value Gaps
Multiple bullish FVGs formed on the impulse from the lows
Entry aligns with discount mitigation inside bullish inefficiency
No clean inefficiencies left below → downside fuel largely removed
⏱️ Session Behaviour
London AM delivered the true low of the move
Classic session profile:
Asia consolidates → London sweeps → expansion follows
NY continuation his ighly probable if the structure holds
🎯 Trade Logic
Sell-side liquidity fully taken
The market showed immediate bullish displacement
Pullbacks are shallow and supported
Buyside liquidity resting above prior highs acts as a magnet
⚠️ Invalidation Criteria
Failure to hold above the reclaimed structure
Bearish displacement back into discount
Acceptance below post-sweep low
Until then, buy-side bias remains valid.
🧾 Summary
EURJPY shows buy-side sentiment following a completed sell-side liquidity sweep and strong bullish displacement. Absorption at the lows and acceptance back above the value support mean reversion toward premium liquidity.
Gold has formed a double bottom pattern, signaling potential upsGold is showing early bullish signals both technically and fundamentally.
Gold has formed a double bottom pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup that suggests selling pressure is fading and buyers are stepping back in. If price holds above this support zone and breaks higher, it strengthens the case for a move upward from current levels.
On the fundamental side, J.P. Morgan remains strongly bullish on gold, projecting prices could climb toward the $6,000+ area by 2026. Their outlook is driven mainly by strong central bank demand, ongoing global uncertainty, and gold’s role as a long-term hedge against currency and geopolitical risk.
Together, the bullish chart structure and positive institutional outlook support the idea that gold may have further upside ahead, despite short-term volatility.
Let me know your opinion in the comments bellow!!!
Q1 | W6 | Y26 AUDUSD | FRGNT WEEKLY FORECAST | 📅 Q1 | W6 | Y26
📊 AUDUSD | FRGNT WEEKLY FORECAST |
🔍 Analysis Approach
I’m applying a developed version of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured focus on:
• Identifying Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
• Using those POIs to define a clear and controlled trading range 📐
• Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
• Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) as confirmation ✅
This process keeps me precise, disciplined, and aligned with market narrative, rather than reacting emotionally or chasing price.
💡 My Motto
“Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge.”
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, combined with a high-probability execution model, is the backbone of any sustainable trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ On Losses
Losses are part of the mathematical reality of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they are necessary, expected, and managed.
We acknowledge them, learn, and move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Further context and supporting material can be found in the Links section.
Stay sharp 🧠
Stay consistent 🎯
Protect your capital 🔐
— FRGNT 🚀📈
FX:AUDUSD
$BMNR: The $161 Ghost Top – Will the Great price void be filled?💀📉 💀📉
We need to talk about #BMNR.
Tom Lee’s vision of an 'Ethereum Treasury' is a grand experiment, but for retail investors, it’s becoming a house of mirrors.
The Trap: Thousands of retail accounts are trapped at the $100+ entry levels. With the current price at $25, the psychological damage is already done.
The Gap: Look at the monthly chart. There is a massive, unfilled gap from $12.38 down to the $4.57 zone.
The Reality: $4 billion of unrealised losses on just $79.3M in revenue is not a business; it's a high-stakes bet with YOUR capital. $200M stake on youtuber is a massive gamble. Completely unrelated to bringing Tradfi on chain.
Warning: If we lose the $24.33 support, the next unfulfilled targets will likely be met.
With $16.70 a high conviction probability imho.
#BMNR #TomLee #Ethereum #StockMarketCrash #RetailTrap #DilutionWarning
📉 3 Red Flags
1. The "Split-Adjusted" Illusion & High-Price Trap
The stock reached an all-time high of $161 earlier in the year but is currently trading around $25.10.
The Danger: Retail investors who "bought the top" are now sitting on 84% losses.
The Gap: There is a significant technical gap back toward the $3.20 - $5.00 range (the 52-week low). If the market loses faith in the "Ethereum Treasury" narrative, the stock could gravity-pull toward its DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) fair value of just $0.18.
2. The "Alchemy of 5%" vs. Extreme Dilution
Tom Lee’s strategy, "The Alchemy of 5%," aims to control 5% of the total ETH supply.
The Dilution: To fund this, Lee recently asked shareholders to approve a 100x increase in authorised shares—from 500 million to 50 billion.
The Warning: While Lee claims this keeps the share price "reasonable," it effectively ensures that current retail holders will be massively diluted unless ETH prices go parabolic immediately.
3. The Financial "Flippening"
The company’s latest financials (Q1 2026) showed a staggering $5.2 billion net loss, flipping from a profit just one quarter prior.
Fragile Model: Despite having $14 billion in assets, the revenue from staking.
Is only revenue if sold for Dollars.
He made himself a Eth whale --- where dumping is part of the business model.
The Risk: This creates a situation where the stock trades purely on the sentiment of ETH, but with the overhead of a massive corporate cash-burn.
Estée Lauder ($EL) has hit a strong technical barrierHunters, we’ve spotted a prime short opportunity! 🎯
Estée Lauder ( NYSE:EL ) has hit a strong technical barrier, and a textbook short setup is forming right now with a fantastic Risk/Reward ratio.
🔍 Technical Analysis & Rationale:
Rejection at Resistance: Price tested local highs (around $120), showing a clear reaction from sellers and forming a "Pivot Top" structure.
Overbought Market: The RSI indicator pushed into overbought territory (>70), which historically signals an imminent correction for this stock.
Mean Reversion: I expect a pullback toward the long-term moving averages (SMA 50/100) sitting significantly lower. The market is overextended and needs to cool off.
📊 Trade Parameters:
Entry: Current Market Price (CMP)
Risk Reward Ratio (RRR): ~1:5.5 💰
Potential: Drop to support zones around $100 - $102.
This trade offers asymmetric profit potential – low risk for a major move to the downside.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and stick to your risk management.
#StockHunterSimon #Trading #Stocks #EsteeLauder #ShortSelling #MarketUpdate
Bitcoin: A bullish case based on the Monthly chartI have been bearish on bitcoin for a while, but now is when it is time to flip bullish again.
Price has reached the highs of the 2021 cycle, which in my opinion should be treated as support as an inverted rejection block.
The consolidation area of 74k-48k from 2024 should act as support for a push higher to new all time highs.
I predict a price of $177k per btc will be reached before the end of 2027.
ETHUSD Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for ETHUSD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 2,050.77.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 2,817.29.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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