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Trend Analysis

NZDCHF: Supply Reaction Within 350 EMA Downtrend ContextStructure: Price reacting into defined supply zone following corrective push. Context: 350 EMA remains downward sloping, maintaining broader bearish pressure. 50 and 200 EMAs compressed beneath supply, signalling weakened upside momentum. Key Level: Supply zone rejection required for continuation lower. Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above supply shifts short-term bias neutral. Bias: Bearish while price remains below supply and 350 EMA slope persists.
Short
by MEStandard
1
GBPAUD: Bearish Drop to 1.896?FX:GBPAUD is eyeing a bearish reversal on the 4-hour chart , with price testing resistance near recent highs in a downward trendline, converging with a potential entry zone that could spark downside momentum if sellers defend amid volatility. This setup suggests a pullback opportunity post-rally, targeting lower support levels with 1:3.5 risk-reward .🔥 Entry between 1.98200–1.98800 for a short position. Target at 1.89600 . Set a stop loss at 2.00615 , yielding a risk-reward ratio of 1:3.5 . Monitor for confirmation via a bearish candle close below entry with rising volume, leveraging the pair's dynamics near resistance.🌟 Fundamentally , GBPAUD is trading around 1.952 in early February 2026, with key events this week for both currencies. For the Australian Dollar, the RBA Interest Rate Decision on February 3 at 3:30 AM UTC (previous 3.85%) is critical, where a hike or hawkish guidance could strengthen AUD amid strong data. For the British Pound, the BoE Interest Rate Decision on February 5 at 12:00 PM UTC (previous 3.75%) represents major risk, with a potential hold or cut pressuring GBP if dovish. Overall, diverging central bank policies could favor AUD strength over GBP. 💡 📝 Trade Setup 🎯 Sell Entry: 1.98200 – 1.98800 (Entry from current price is acceptable with strict risk management.) 🎯 Target: 1.89600 ❌ Stop Loss: Daily close above 2.00615 ⚖️ Risk / Reward: ≈ 1 : 3.5 💡 Your view?
Short
by Master_Hunter
3
BTCUSD 1H Range Consolidation Below Resistance (Bearish Bias)📊 Market Structure Overview Overall bias: Still bearish to neutral Price is trading below the descending trend / dynamic resistance (orange curve). Market is currently range-bound between a clear resistance and support zone. 🔴 Resistance Zone (Key Supply) Area: 71,800 – 72,300 This zone has been tested multiple times and rejected. Strong selling pressure visible → sellers defending this level hard. As long as price stays below this zone, upside is limited. 🟢 Support Zone (Demand / Higher Low) Area: 62,000 – 63,000 Marked as Higher Low support. Strong bullish reaction previously → liquidity + buyers present. This is the major downside target if resistance holds. 🔁 Current Price Action (69,600 area) Price is consolidating, forming a range No strong bullish momentum yet Looks like distribution before a move, not accumulation 🔮 Probable Scenarios 🧨 Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (More Likely) Rejection from 72k Breakdown below 68,500 Move toward 62k support (target zone) 🎯 This aligns with: Lower highs Trendline resistance Weak bullish candles 🚀 Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal (Only if…) Strong 1H close above 72,300 Retest and hold above resistance Then upside continuation possible toward: 74,500 78,000 ⚠️ Without a clean breakout, bullish entries are risky. 🧠 Trading Insight Sell on rejection near resistance is safer Buy only at support with confirmation Avoid mid-range trades (high risk, low reward)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Trade_Action
NZDUSD (1H) — RegimeWorks Trade Idea: Bearish Channel RetestNZDUSD is currently respecting a bearish channel, with structure still favouring continuation to the downside. Price has broken through a key resistance (now acting as potential supply) and is retesting that level, which is the exact area I want to see confirm before expecting the next leg lower. Execution plan (conditional): I will place a sell stop below the previous lower low (LL). The entry only activates if price proves downside intent by breaking that LL. If triggered, the primary expectation is a rotation back toward the lower boundary of the bearish channel. Risk management (aggressive by design): I will manage the position tightly and reduce risk quickly once price moves in my favour (protecting early and avoiding giving back gains). If the retest fails and price reclaims the broken level with strength, this idea is invalidated and I stay out. This is a structured trade idea based on current price action — not financial advice and not a prediction.
by RegimeWorks
GBPUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal Off Pullback ResistanceThe price is rising towards our buy entry level at 1.3652, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our stop loss is set at 1.3753, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit is set at 1.3550, which is an overlap support level. High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd fxcm.com CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC fxcm.com Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited fxcm.com Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com
Short
by FXCM
BITF | WeeklyNASDAQ:BITF — Quantum Model Projection Bullish Alternative📈 BITF finally surged ~28% in a strong intraday rally on Friday, launching decisively off the Sup Q-Structure λ₂ confluence, confirming a high-reaction demand zone. This reaction supports an Intermediate-degree trend reversal, aligns with the projected impulsive advance in Intermediate Wave (5), and signals a resumption of the broader Primary Wave ⓷ uptrend. With the broader bullish structure intact, the $28.88 Q-Target 🎯 remains firmly in play. 🔖 BITF completed an A–B–C corrective structure, retracing to the 0.618 Fib within Intermediate Wave (4)—a deeper-than-expected fourth-wave pullback, as 0.382–0.50 retracements are more typical. Thanks for your patience. Price ultimately held at the Q-Structure λ₂ confluence, in line with projections. 🔖 The outlook is derived from insights within my Quantum Models framework. #CryptoStocks #CryptoMining NASDAQ:BITF #QuantumModels
NASDAQ:BITFLong
by ElliottChart
GOLD (XAUUSD) | 1H Harmonic Pattern | Bullish Breakout Setup#Gold is currently forming a valid Harmonic Pattern on the 1-hour timeframe and, so far, no bearish signals are visible. Price action remains healthy, suggesting buyers are in control. The key level to watch is resistance. A clean breakout and candle close above this level could confirm bullish continuation. Upon a successful breakout and retest confirmation, I will look for long positions, strictly following proper risk management. Trade Plan Bias: Bullish Entry: After resistance breakout & retest Invalidation: Pattern failure / bearish confirmation Risk Management: Mandatory (no FOMO trades) Patience is key — confirmation first, execution second. What’s your view on #GOLD here? Are you expecting a breakout or a rejection from resistance?
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Elite_Technical_Analysis_Hub
2
XAUUSD-15M SETUP Gold formed a strong bullish impulse followed by distribution / rising wedge compression near resistance after sweeping liquidity at the highs. Price is now showing weak bullish continuation with lower highs forming, suggesting potential bearish rotation. 🔹 Bias: Bearish below key structure 🔹 Entry Idea: Breakdown and retest of rising trendline / support zone 🔹 Targets: TP1 – 4,968.5 TP2 – 4,939.7 TP3 – 4,932.7 🔹 Invalidation: Strong break and close above 5,000 resistance
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fm254
4
XAUUSD Consolidation Within a Bullish StructureGold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) Structure Holding #Gold continues to respect the rising trendline while consolidating below key resistance. The broader structure remains constructive. A short-term pullback toward support would be healthy, as long as the trendline holds on a closing basis. Bias remains upward while price stays above trend support. A sustained break below would weaken the bullish case and shift focus to deeper support levels. Levels are clear. Let price do the rest. #Gold #XAUUSD
FX:XAUUSDLong
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
3
OTHERS: Structural Weakness Remains Despite Short-Term Relief The broader cryptocurrency market (excluding the top 10) continues to display structural weakness, with price action favoring additional downside before any sustainable recovery can be considered. While short-term relief remains possible, the dominant Elliott Wave structure and Fibonacci confluence suggest that bearish targets are still active at the macro level. This analysis focuses on structure, alignment, and proportionality, rather than short-term price noise. Price remains confined within a descending channel, respecting both its upper and lower boundaries with notable precision. The recent rejection from the channel’s upper half reinforces the idea that the prevailing trend is corrective rather than impulsive. The broader pattern can be interpreted as a complex corrective structure, where price is currently developing the latter stages of a zigzag-style move. Despite intermittent bounces, market behavior continues to favor trend continuation to the downside. ELLIOTT WAVE BREAKDOWN At the macro level, the structure is unfolding as a corrective sequence, rather than the start of a new impulsive advance. The larger move can be interpreted as a zigzag (A)–(B)–(C). - Wave (A) completed with clear internal subdivision. - Wave (B) retraced into Fibonacci resistance, failing to reclaim the prior structure decisively. - Price is now progressing within wave (C), which itself subdivides cleanly into a five-wave structure. Internal Structure Within wave (C), the chart highlights: - A clearly defined 1–2–3–4–5 sequence on the lower timeframe. - The smaller, darker Fibonacci measurements correspond to this micro impulsive count, used to confirm momentum and internal symmetry. - These internal waves align with the broader corrective expectation, reinforcing the bearish scenario rather than contradicting it. Downside Expectation and Macro Targets As long as price remains below the descending channel resistance, the expectation is for continuation toward the macro 0.618–0.786 retracement zone. These levels align with: - Channel support - Completion of wave (C) - Fibonacci extensions of the broader corrective structure A sustained move beyond the 0.786 region would signal further structural weakness and likely imply that the correction is not yet complete. Lower Timeframe Invalidation: A Conditional Note While the macro outlook remains bearish, the chart clearly highlights a lower timeframe invalidation level. - A break above this level would suggest the possibility of a short-term uptrend or relief rally. - Such a move would likely target the upper boundary of the parallel channel, rather than signal a full trend reversal. - Importantly, this does not invalidate the macro bearish structure unless followed by impulsive continuation and structural confirmation. In other words, any upside above the lower timeframe invalidation should be viewed as corrective unless proven otherwise. CONCLUSION The broader crypto market continues to trade within a corrective framework, with downside risk still dominant despite the possibility of temporary relief moves. Elliott Wave structure, Fibonacci symmetry, and channel dynamics all point toward lower levels being required before a meaningful macro reversal can occur. What makes this analysis particularly compelling is the alignment across degrees, from micro wave counts to macro Fibonacci targets, where multiple measurements converge at similar bearish levels. This type of structural agreement strengthens confidence in the roadmap, even as short-term volatility persists. As always, structure leads, and price confirms.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSShort
by Kap_Waves
Bitcoin - Is Bitcoin's Downtrend Over?!Bitcoin is below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its medium-term descending channel. Bitcoin's upward correction towards the specified supply zones will provide us with its next selling opportunities. If the decline continues towards the demand zone, we can buy Bitcoin with appropriate risk-reward. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand limit. Market sentiment across the cryptocurrency space has fallen to its lowest level since the collapse of FTX, a period when Bitcoin’s sharp decline triggered widespread forced deleveraging and heavy selling pressure throughout the market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 9 on Friday, placing it firmly in the “extreme fear” zone—levels historically observed only during periods of severe market confidence breakdown. By the end of the trading week, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another negative performance, similar to the previous two weeks. However, despite the deeper market decline, total outflows reached $689 million, noticeably lower than the $1.49 billion and $1.33 billion outflows seen in the two prior weeks. Bitcoin’s sharp سقوط to around $60,000—roughly a 30% drop within a single week—has fueled widespread speculation among traders and analysts. Many believe the decline was not driven solely by general risk-off sentiment but was likely connected to the forced liquidation of a large non-crypto entity. According to these scenarios, the recent heavy selling may have originated from a **major institution—possibly based in Asia—**that was compelled to exit positions rapidly due to financial pressure. Social media discussions have ranged from multi-billion-dollar Bitcoin sales by a government or exchange to chain reactions across leveraged trades, carry trades, and options positions tied to BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT). This سقوط marked Bitcoin’s worst single-day performance since the 2022 FTX collapse. “Flood,” a well-known crypto trader, described the selling as “violent, forced, and indiscriminate,” noting that pressure of this magnitude has rarely been seen in recent years. At the same time, the steep price decline has reignited concerns about Bitcoin’s long-term security. Some industry participants argue that falling prices and reduced liquidity may be the only forces capable of pushing the market toward serious efforts to harden Bitcoin against quantum-computing threats, particularly as sentiment reaches post-FTX lows. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, attributed the sudden drop in Bitcoin’s price to bank hedging activity linked to BlackRock’s spot ETF (IBIT). He noted that institutions such as Morgan Stanley have issued structured productstied to the ETF’s performance. Hayes explained that these instruments effectively represent bank bets on Bitcoin’s price, and when BTC moves rapidly, banks must buy or sell immediately to manage risk—behavior that can amplify volatility and produce sharp price swings. He emphasized that he will closely monitor these ETF-linked financial products going forward, as they may provide signals of Bitcoin’s next major market moves. Meanwhile, Strategy reported significantly higher losses in its fourth-quarter earnings, with unrealized digital-asset losses reaching $17.4 billion and a net loss of $12.4 billion. As of February 1, 2026, the company holds 713,502 BTC, acquired at a total cost of $54.26 billion and an average price of $76,052 per Bitcoin. During 2025, Strategy raised $25.3 billion in funding while building a $2.25 billion cash reserve, which the company states is sufficient to cover approximately 2.5 years of dividend payments and interest expenses.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Ali_PSND
2
NATGATE - 8 RECORD SESSION LOWS ?NATGATE : CURRENT PRICE : RM1.00 - RM1.02 NATGATE has been in a corrective phase and recently printed an 8-session low, which often signals selling exhaustion and opens the door for a technical rebound. (The record session topic is discussed by STEVE NISON in his book - BEYOND CANDLESTICK , PAGE 121 - 127) A bullish piercing line appeared in Friday’s session, where buyers pushed price well into the prior bearish candle’s body. Stochastic oscillator is currently in the oversold zone, signalling a potential technical rebound. ENTRY PRICE : RM1.00 - RM1.02 FIRST TARGET : RM1.10 SECOND TARGET : RM1.22 (near EMA 200) - The EMA 200 has capped price twice, acting as strong dynamic resistance, look at the green highlighted area. SUPPORT : RM0.935 Notes : For reference, I’ve attached the link to my previous write-up related to this setup.
MYX:NATGATELong
by IMRAN_96
Liquidity Sweep → Corrective Rally SetupMarket Structure (HTF → LTF) Strong bearish BOS on the left → clear downtrend. Price makes a sell-side liquidity sweep (labeled “fake breakout”) below the prior low. Immediate rejection from the lows → suggests bear trap / short covering. 👉 This often precedes a mean reversion or corrective rally, not an instant trend reversal. 2. Key Zones on the Chart 🟦 Support / Demand Zone (~66k–68k) This is where price: Swept liquidity Reclaimed structure Printed strong bullish candles Valid reaction zone, but still counter-trend. ⬛ Resistance / Target Area (~74k–75k) Marked as TARGET POINT Aligns with: Prior structure BOS origin / imbalance Logical upside objective for a relief rally. 3. Current Price Behavior Price is consolidating and stair-stepping up from support. No clean bullish BOS yet on higher timeframes. Structure is corrective, not impulsive. 📌 This favors scalp → short swing longs, not HTF position longs. 4. Trade Scenarios (TradingView-Friendly) 🔵 Bullish Scenario (Preferred) Entry: Pullback into the support zone OR LTF CHoCH above minor highs Targets: TP1: ~70.9k (mid-range / equilibrium) TP2: ~74k–75k (main target) Invalidation: Clean close below the support zone 🔴 Bearish Scenario (If Rejected) Strong rejection / bearish engulfing near 74k–75k Look for: LTF BOS down Failed continuation Possible continuation with the dominant HTF trend
Long
by Moriss365
2