XAU/USD – Bearish Continuation Outlook (Smart Money Framework)XAU/USD – Bearish Continuation Outlook (Smart Money Framework)
🧭 Market Structure Overview
The major structure is bearish — confirmed by a Market Structure Break (MSB) after the last swing high.
Every bullish move since then is viewed as a retracement into premium price for better short entries.
Smart Money likely accumulating shorts above internal liquidity levels before driving price lower.
🟩 Premium Supply Zones (Sell Areas)
1️⃣ Be-BB (Bearish Breaker Block) → 4,180 – 4,240
💣 Main shorting area
Price expected to tap this level to mitigate sell-side imbalance.
Watch for liquidity grab above 4,060 before reversal.
Confirmation: bearish engulfing or BOS on lower timeframes (LTF).
2️⃣ Be-OB (Bearish Order Block) → 4,260 – 4,320
🚫 Last line of defense for bears
If price reaches here, expect a strong rejection due to trapped buyers and institutional orders.
Perfect “last tap” zone before deep markdown.
🟥 Discount Demand Zones (Targets)
🔻 Primary Demand Zone Area → 3,820 – 3,870
Previous accumulation zone (high-volume node).
Take-profit target for swing shorts.
Potential re-entry area for Smart Money to reload buys later.
🎯 Expected final destination if bearish pressure sustains.
📉 Bearish Scenarios
⚔️ Scenario 1 – Textbook Smart Money Setup
Price retraces to 4,060–4,180 zone (Be-BB).
Liquidity grab above 4,060 (previous high).
Bearish rejection → BOS → Sell continuation.
Targets: 3,939 → 3,870 → 3,820.
💥 Most probable scenario.
⚔️ Scenario 2 – Deep Retracement Then Dump
Bulls push higher into 4,260 (Be-OB).
Liquidity sweep and institutional fill.
Massive rejection → sell-off continuation.
🔥 Deeper pullback = bigger sell move later.
