BTC/USD 4-hour Analysis I 12/181. Price Structure & Trend Analysis
Main Trend: The chart shows a strong downward movement from the $93,200 area down to a low near $85,200. Currently, the price is in a consolidation phase following this sharp drop.
Current Price: BTC is trading around $86,812 (according to the real-time data on the chart).
Candlestick Patterns: We see short-bodied candles with long wicks on both sides, indicating market indecision at this short-term bottom.
2. Volume Profile Analysis
Your chart displays key zones using the Fixed Range Volume Profile:
VAH zone (Value Area High): Around $87,800 - $88,000. This acts as immediate resistance. A breakout above this zone would signal a clearer recovery.
POC zone (Point of Control): Around $86,214. This is the level with the highest traded volume in the current range. The fact that price is holding above the POC is a slightly bullish sign, suggesting buyers are attempting to defend this level.
VAL zone (Value Area Low): Around $85,600. This is the crucial support floor. If a 4-hour candle closes below this zone, BTC could seek lower support levels (towards the $84,000 area).
3. Key Levels to Watch
Resistance:
$88,766: The yellow horizontal line; a strong former supply zone.
$90,209: The black horizontal line (a major psychological level).
$93,206: The previous peak where the sell-off originated.
Support:
$86,200: The current POC area.
$85,200: The most recent swing low. A break below this would turn market sentiment extremely bearish.
4. Outlook & Strategy
The market is currently in a "wait-and-see" mode. After a heavy drop, prices usually need time to move sideways to absorb selling pressure.
Bullish Scenario: If the price closes a 4h candle above $88,000 (breaking VAH), BTC could rally toward the $90,200 region.
Bearish Scenario: If price loses the $86,000 mark, selling pressure may return to test deeper support at $84,000 - $84,300.
Note: This analysis is based on technical data; the crypto market is highly volatile. You should combine this with macro news for more accurate decision-making.
Trend Analysis
Ethereum Is Compressing After Repeated Sell-OffOn the H1 timeframe, Ethereum continues to show a clear bearish structure, defined by a series of sharp impulsive sell-offs followed by weak, overlapping consolidations. Each prior bounce has failed to develop into a meaningful recovery, and price continues to form lower highs, confirming that sellers remain in control. The current sideways movement near 2,840 is corrective in nature, not a base for reversal.
Structurally, ETH is displaying a classic bearish pause: volatility expansion to the downside, followed by tight compression with declining momentum. This type of price behavior typically precedes continuation, not reversal. As long as price remains capped below the recent breakdown area, the probability favors another leg lower, with downside liquidity sitting below the current consolidation range.
From a macro and U.S. policy perspective, Ethereum remains under pressure from the same forces weighing on broader crypto markets. The Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary stance, elevated real yields, and a relatively firm USD continue to drain liquidity from risk assets. In addition, ETH lacks a near-term narrative strong enough to offset macro headwinds, especially in an environment where capital remains selective and risk appetite is subdued.
Bottom line:
Ethereum is not building strength it is absorbing supply after repeated sell-offs. Until macro conditions ease or ETH reclaims key resistance with acceptance, rallies should be treated as temporary pauses within a broader bearish sequence, with downside continuation remaining the higher-probability scenario.
BTC SELL SETUP READ CAPTIONBitcoin (BTCUSD) Trade Idea – Bearish Setup Timeframe: 4H Market Bias: Bearish (Pullback → Continuation) Technical Overview Bitcoin is trading below a descending trendline, showing overall bearish structure. Price recently made a strong impulsive move down and is now pulling back toward a major resistance zone aligned with the trendline. This area is acting as a sell zone, increasing the probability of downside continuation. Trade Plan Entry (Sell): 85,800 – 86,200 (pullback into resistance & trendline) Stop Loss: Above 87,500 (above resistance zone) Take Profit 1: 84,500 Final Target: 83,700 – 83,500 Risk–Reward Approximate Risk : Reward = 1 : 2.5 / 1 : 3 Confirmation (Recommended) Bearish rejection candle (wick or engulfing) at resistance Failure to break and close above the trendline on 4H Weak bullish momentum during pullback Invalidation A strong 4H close above 87,500 will invalidate this bearish setup and may signal
Gold prices are at a crucial juncture.Gold prices are at a crucial juncture.
Gold prices face double pressure at high levels; can it break through to new highs?
Resistance Level 1: $4380-$4385
Resistance Level 2: $4350
Just today, our team once again achieved a single profit exceeding $6000.
Based on chart analysis, we can clearly see:
1: Gold prices are in a large-scale triangle consolidation pattern, entering its final stage. This means a new direction is about to emerge for both bulls and bears.
2: Gold prices have completed a 5-minute head and shoulders bottom consolidation structure. This means the optimal time to test the strong resistance level of the $4350-$4380 range has arrived.
Our strategy needs to be adjusted based on the current timeframe:
1: The US market is about to close; there are 3 hours left until the major market closes. The main drivers of future gold price movements will come from the Asian and European markets.
Can these two periods see an upward breakout and a new high?
2. Whether you're going long or short, the current strategy offers optimal value. Both are worth trying.
3. If you must choose a general direction for the future, the basic logic remains to follow the main trend. Once a trend is established, it's not easily reversed. This is a microcosm of the global economy, and this trend cannot be reversed in a day or two.
Main Logic: Continue to be bullish, buy on dips.
Specific Strategies:
1. Short Selling Strategy:
Sell: 4330-4340
Stop Loss: 4355
Take Profit: 4310-4300-4280
2. Long Selling Strategy:
Buy 1: 4315-4320
Stop Loss: 4300/4295/4285
Take Profit: 4350+/4380+
I will continue to publish specific trading rhythms on my dedicated channel.
Over the past six months, we have accompanied countless traders to grow. We will continue to uphold this commitment and provide you with the highest quality trading signals.
Gold Is Accumulating for a Break — Not HesitatingGold on H1 continues to consolidate inside a clear accumulation zone after the impulsive upside move, with price holding above key support and forming higher lows. This price behavior reflects absorption rather than distribution, as sellers repeatedly fail to force acceptance below the range while buyers defend dips. Compression beneath the old ATH is a classic pre-expansion structure, where the market builds liquidity before choosing direction. As long as the accumulation floor holds, the technical bias remains bullish, with a breakout above the previous ATH as the primary resolution.
From a macro perspective, the backdrop remains supportive for Gold. Expectations around U.S. monetary policy continue to favor rate cuts in 2025, keeping real yields capped and limiting sustained USD strength. At the same time, year-end positioning, thinning liquidity, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty reinforce demand for safe-haven assets. These factors reduce the probability of a deep corrective sell-off and favor consolidation resolving higher rather than breaking down.
In short, Gold is not stalling it is aligning technical structure with macro support. A clean acceptance above the accumulation high would likely unlock continuation toward new highs, while failure to break simply extends the buildup phase. Patience remains the edge until expansion confirms intent.
XAU/USD is facing strong resistance around 4348 sell pressure📉 XAUUSD Technical Sell Setup (1H Timeframe)
🟡 Market Outlook:
XAUUSD is facing strong resistance around 4348, and price is showing selling pressure from this zone. Sellers are currently in control, making short positions favorable on lower timeframes.
🔻 Sell Zone:
📍 4348 – Strong Resistance
🎯 Technical Targets:
✅ 4314
✅ 4298
✅ 4274
🛑 Major Support Area:
🔹 4178 – Strong demand zone to watch for potential reaction
⏰ Timeframe:
🕐 1 Hour (H1)
⚠️ Risk Management:
Always use proper stop loss, manage lot size wisely, and avoid over-leveraging. Trade safe, not emotional.
📌 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Market conditions can change at any time.
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Trade smart & stay disciplined 💼📊
EUR/JPY Strong bullish trend buying from support area[ b]📈 EURJPY – Strong Bullish Momentum 🇪🇺🇯🇵
EURJPY is showing a strong bullish trend on the 1H timeframe 🔥
Price is respecting a strong buying support zone around 182.000, indicating continued upside potential.
🟢 Buying Area / Support Zone:
➡️ 182.000
🎯 Technical Targets:
🥇 TP1: 182.500
🥈 TP2: 183.000
📊 Trend structure remains bullish with healthy price action and buyer strength 💪
⚠️ Risk Management is key:
✔️ Use proper lot size
✔️ Always place Stop Loss
✔️ Trade according to your risk plan
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📌 Trade smart, stay disciplined, and protect your capital 💼📉
#EURJPY #ForexTrading #BullishTrend #PriceAction #SupportZone #RiskManagement #FXSignals 🚀
XAUUSD – Watching for a Bullish Continuation From Retest ZoneGold has returned to a mid‑range support zone around 4,302–4,312, an area that previously acted as demand during the last impulsive move. Price is holding above this zone after retesting it, and the reaction here is important for continuation.
If buyers maintain control, the next resistance sits near 4,325, where the market has shown repeated reactions earlier in the session. A break and hold above that region opens the way for further upside structure.
The invalidation level remains around 4,277, as a move below this support would shift the current bullish bias and break the recent accumulation base.
Levels Marked on Chart:
Buy Interest Zone: 4,302 – 4,312
Resistance: 4,325
Invalidation: 4,277
DISCLAIMER : This is an educational chart and for market structure discussion only.
BTC Is Not Bottoming Yet — This Is a Controlled Sell-Side On the H4 timeframe, Bitcoin continues to trade within a clear downtrend structure. Each rebound has produced a lower high, followed by renewed selling that prints lower lows. The sideways boxes on the chart are not accumulation phases; they function as distribution / position-unwinding zones within a broader bearish trend, where price pauses to build liquidity before continuing lower. At this stage, BTC is still inside a weak corrective bounce and has not reclaimed any key structure that would justify a trend reversal narrative.
Key technical levels to respect:
- Near-term resistance / supply: 87.7k–88.0k (marked resistance zone). Failure to accept above this area keeps rallies corrective.
- Range support / demand: 85.1k–85.3k (range low). A clean break below this zone would confirm downside continuation.
- Structural liquidity target: 74.8k, the next major downside magnet if the range resolves lower.
Expected price behavior:
BTC is likely to continue short-term ranging, producing several push-and-fail attempts below resistance before rotating back toward the range low. A decisive breakdown of the range floor would open the path toward the 74.8k liquidity zone. Only a sustained reclaim and acceptance above 87.7k–88.0k would invalidate the current bearish structure.
Macro & U.S. Policy: Why Conditions Remain Unfavorable for Crypto
1) Monetary policy remains restrictive.
Despite expectations for gradual easing in 2025, U.S. monetary policy is still firmly in restrictive territory. This environment limits risk appetite and historically weighs on high-beta assets like crypto when liquidity expansion is absent.
2) Policy uncertainty suppresses risk-on behavior.
Ongoing ambiguity around the Fed’s policy path and broader U.S. macro direction keeps markets cautious. In such conditions, Bitcoin tends to move sideways or trend lower rather than sustain impulsive upside moves.
3) Regulatory and headline risk persists.
While long-term regulatory clarity may ultimately benefit the crypto space, near-term developments around regulation and oversight continue to act as headline risk, reinforcing defensive positioning especially during periods of thinner liquidity.
Conclusion:
Technically, BTC remains under sell-side control on H4, and macro conditions in the U.S. do not yet support a clean risk-on reversal. Until Bitcoin reclaims key resistance and breaks the sequence of lower highs, the higher-probability scenario remains range → breakdown → continuation toward lower demand.
USD/JPY Looking sell from key supply zone 157,800 📉USD/JPY Sell Setup
Watching price react from the key supply zone at 156.800 on the 4H timeframe.
🎯 Technical Targets:
1️⃣ First Target: 155.800
2️⃣ Second Target: 154.500
💧 Liquidity Zone:
157.900
⚠️ Risk Management First!
Always use proper position sizing and protect your capital.
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Silver is in the Bullish directionHello Traders
In This Chart XAGUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today XAGUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (XAGUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XAGUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
ETH/USD – H4 Analysis....ETH/USD – H4 Analysis (According to My chart)
Market Structure
Price has broken down from the ascending channel.
Strong bearish momentum after rejection from channel resistance.
Price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, confirming bearish control.
Current move looks like a bearish continuation, not just a pullback.
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📉 Sell Scenario
Sell Zone: 2,950 – 3,050
🎯 Targets
Target 1: 2,650
Target 2: 2,500
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❌ Invalidation
A strong H4 close above 3,150 will invalidate the bearish setup.
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📌 Summary
Trend Shift: Bullish → Bearish
Bias: SELL
Expectation: Price to continue dropping toward lower demand zones around 2.5k
Gold Is Not Hesitating — It Is Building Energy for a New ATH.Gold on the H1 timeframe continues to display a bullish consolidation directly below the previous high at 4,380 , a structure that typically precedes continuation rather than reversal. Price is holding firmly inside a well-defined range, with higher lows forming repeatedly while pullbacks remain shallow and controlled. This behavior signals absorption of supply, not distribution sellers are active near resistance, but they are failing to push price into acceptance below the support zone. As long as Gold holds above the 4,260–4,270 support area, the broader bullish structure remains intact.
From a market-structure perspective, this sideways action below ATH reflects strength. In strong trends, markets often pause near highs to build liquidity before expanding again. The repeated tests of the upper range, combined with higher lows, suggest pressure is coiling rather than fading. A clean acceptance above 4,380 would likely unlock a break into new ATH territory , while failure to break simply extends the consolidation phase, not invalidates the trend.
From a macro standpoint, conditions remain supportive for Gold. U.S. monetary policy expectations continue to lean toward easing in 2025, keeping real yields capped and limiting sustained USD strength. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainty continue to underpin safe haven demand. These factors reduce the probability of a deep corrective sell-off and favor sideways-to-higher price action instead.
Bottom line: Gold is not topping it is positioning. As long as support holds, the technical and macro alignment favors a breakout above the previous high. Patience is required, but the bias remains firmly bullish until proven otherwise.
HBAR Price Stalls at Major Support After Sharp SelloffCOINBASE:HBARUSD price has paused after a sharp selloff, down around 17% over the past seven days and nearly 24% month over month. The decline has now slowed near the $0.113 zone, a level that has started acting as short-term support.
Momentum remains weak. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks large capital movement, is still deeply negative near −0.32. This shows that bigger players are not stepping back in yet, even as price stabilizes. Recent exchange flow data also confirms fading demand, with brief outflows quickly flipping back into mild inflows.
As long as COINBASE:HBARUSD holds above $0.113, a short consolidation or minor bounce is possible. However, a clean break below $0.107 would expose the next downside zone near $0.095, roughly 16% lower. On the upside, any recovery remains limited unless HBAR reclaims $0.155 on a daily close.
For now, price is resting on support, but buyers have yet to prove conviction.
#RSR/USDT Bullish Reversal in MAGICUSDT Accumulation#RSR
The price is moving in a descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe. It has reached the lower boundary and is heading towards breaking above it, with a retest of the upper boundary expected.
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator, which has reached near the lower boundary, and an upward rebound is expected.
There is a key support zone in green at 0.002534. The price has bounced from this level multiple times and is expected to bounce again.
We have a trend towards consolidation above the 100-period moving average, as we are moving close to it, which supports the upward movement.
Entry price: 0.002628
First target: 0.002754
Second target: 0.002887
Third target: 0.003078
Don't forget a simple principle: money management.
Place your stop-loss below the support zone in green.
For any questions, please leave a comment.
Thank you.
MELIMercadoLibre is a complex ecosystem integrating a marketplace, logistics, fintech (Mercado Pago), and digital advertising.
Company Strengths
MELI's main competitive advantage lies not in its individual services, but in their deep integration, creating a "closed loop" for users.
Logistics (Mercado Envíos): Its own network of fulfillment centers, whose capacity has grown by 41% year-on-year, ensures the fastest delivery in the region.
Fintech (Mercado Pago): It is a full-fledged digital bank with 72 million monthly active users. Mercado Pago's credit card has become the most widely used on its own platform in Brazil, with over 50% of its turnover coming from external transactions, demonstrating its intrinsic value.
Advertising (Mercado Ads): The fastest-growing segment, leveraging unique, first-party data for targeting.
Operational and Financial Performance
Revenue in Q3 2025: $7.4 billion (+39% YoY)
Total Payment Volume (TPV): $71.2 billion (+41% YoY)
Loan Portfolio: $11.0 billion (+83% YoY)
Assets Under Management: $15.1 billion (+89% YoY)
At the same time, the company maintains an investment-grade credit rating (BBB- from Fitch), providing access to affordable capital.
Weaknesses and Risks:
Credit Risks and Profit Pressure
The most significant risk comes from the fintech segment. Rapid loan portfolio growth (+83%) is outpacing revenue growth, and doubtful debt provisions for the first nine months of 2025 increased by 58%. This directly impacts net profit, which grew by 13% significantly below revenue growth (+37%).
Net interest margin after deductions (NIMAL) decreased by 320 basis points to 21%. Investors rightly fear that aggressive lending expansion could lead to a wave of defaults in the event of a macroeconomic downturn.
Margin compression due to strategic investments 🔎
ATH Showdown: Double Top Forming at Major Confluence Zone Price is trading into a major HTF confluence area around ATH, where prior resistance, trendline interaction, and extended Fibonacci levels align. On the daily timeframe, the developing M-pattern (double top) signals potential distribution and increases the risk of a downside move rather than immediate continuation. I’m watching 4390, 4396, and 4404 as key reaction zones above ATH, where price must show strong acceptance to confirm a valid breakout. Failure to hold above these levels would suggest exhaustion and favor a rejection leading to a corrective sell-off toward lower structure and unfilled inefficiencies below. A sustained break and hold above these reaction zones would invalidate the bearish thesis.






















