TRX/USDT — Long-Term Trendline Test: Bounce or Breakdown?TRX has maintained a multi-year higher-high, higher-low structure, making it one of the most stable altcoins in a volatile market cycle. But now, price is sitting directly above the primary ascending trendline — the same trendline that has supported TRX’s entire bullish expansion since early 2023.
This weekly zone is a major decision point:
Will TRX extend its long-term bullish structure, or will it break down and enter a deeper correction phase if the trendline and the $0.212 support fail?
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The long-term uptrend remains intact as long as the trendline holds.
The price is currently retesting the trendline — a zone that historically triggers strong reactions (powerful bounce or sharp breakdown).
The horizontal level at $0.212 acts as the critical structural support.
Current movement looks like a healthy pullback, not a full reversal (unless the trendline breaks).
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📈 Bullish Scenario — “The Continuation Rally”
If TRX successfully holds the trendline and forms a bullish reaction, the next leg of the uptrend may begin.
Bullish Confirmation Signals:
Strong weekly close above the trendline
Bullish reversal candle (pin bar, hammer, or engulfing)
Increase in buy volume during the trendline retest
Bullish Targets:
1. $0.32 – $0.35 → first resistance zone
2. $0.45 → major 2025 peak
3. Break above $0.45 → potential long-term price discovery
Bullish Narrative:
“As long as the trendline holds, this is not a correction — it’s a refueling phase before the next rally.”
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📉 Bearish Scenario — “Trendline Breakdown Phase”
If TRX loses the trendline on a weekly close, the long-standing bullish structure may break for the first time since 2023.
Bearish Confirmation Signals:
Weekly close below the trendline
Retest of the trendline turning into resistance
Weekly close below $0.212 → full structure breakdown
Bearish Targets:
Deeper correction into the next major demand zones
Larger volatility due to long positions liquidating below the trendline
Bearish Narrative:
“A trendline breakdown is not a pullback — it signals a structural reversal.”
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📌 Pattern Summary
Primary Pattern: Long-term rising trendline
Current Phase: Controlled weekly pullback
Possible Outcomes:
Bull Flag continuation (if price bounces)
Trendline Breakdown (if price closes below support)
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🎯 Final Conclusion
TRX is positioned at a critical structural level where the market will decide between a continuation of the multi-year uptrend or a macro correction phase.
The next few weekly candles will be decisive.
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