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Trumptrade

Unlock TRUMP/USDT Gains: Swing Trade Strategy Revealed!🎉 Trump vs Tether: Crypto Heist of the Century! 🚨 (TRUMP/USDT Swing/Day Trade) 🔥 Ladies and Gentlemen, Thieves of Profit! Welcome to the Trump vs Tether crypto caper, where we sneak into the market, grab the gains, and vanish before the cops (resistance) catch us! 😎 This swing/day trade setup is designed for maximum loot with a polished, rule-abiding thief vibe that’ll make the TradingView community go wild. Let’s dive into this bullish breakout plan with style and swagger! 💰 📜 The Heist Plan: Bullish Breakout Blueprint 🚀 Demand Zone Push: Buyers are storming in from a strong demand zone, setting the stage for a bullish breakout. The market’s screaming, “Let’s go, thieves!” 🔄 Retest Confirmation: Price retests the breakout level, confirming the move. This is our green light to join the heist! 📈 Triangular Moving Average Breakout: The price smashes through the TMA like a vault door, signaling a bullish trend. 📊 Momentum Oscillator Golden Cross: The momentum oscillator flashes a golden cross, screaming, “This trend is legit!” Time to load up on TRUMP/USDT! 🔑 Entry: Layered Limit Order Strategy (Thief Style) 🕵️‍♂️ 🎯 Entry Levels: Use a layering strategy to sneak into the market with multiple limit orders. Suggested buy entries: $9.000 $9.100 $9.200 $9.300 Pro Tip: Stack more layers based on your risk appetite and market conditions! Be the sneakiest thief in the game. 😏 ⚡ Flexible Entry: No strict price? No problem! Enter at any level that aligns with the demand zone push and TMA breakout. Just don’t get caught sleeping! 🛑 Stop Loss: Protect Your Loot! 🔒 Thief’s Stop Loss: Set your SL at $8.750 to guard your stash. ⚠️ Note: Dear Thieves (OGs), this SL is a suggestion. Adjust it to your strategy and risk tolerance. You’re the mastermind of this heist—own it! 🎯 Target: Grab the Cash and Run! 🏃‍♂️ 💸 Profit Target: Aim for $10.300, where strong resistance and overbought conditions signal a potential trap. The market police are waiting, so cash out before they cuff you! ⚠️ Note: Thieves, this TP is a guide. Take profits at your own discretion—grab the money and escape at your own risk! 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch (Correlated Assets) 👀 To boost your heist, keep an eye on these correlated pairs in USD for additional opportunities or confirmation: BITSTAMP:BTCUSD : Bitcoin often sets the tone for altcoins like TRUMP. A bullish BTC move could fuel our TRUMP/USDT rally. BITSTAMP:ETHUSD : Ethereum’s strength often correlates with altcoin pumps. Watch for ETH breakouts to confirm TRUMP’s momentum. COINBASE:DOGEUSD : Meme coins like DOGE can move in tandem with TRUMP due to similar speculative vibes. A DOGE surge could signal a TRUMP breakout. CBOE:MAGA (MAGA/USDT): The direct sentiment sibling. Often moves in close correlation. CRYPTOCAP:USDT (DXY Watch): Keep an eye on Tether's peg and overall dollar strength (via DXY). A weak dollar can often benefit crypto. Key Correlation Points: TRUMP/USDT thrives in a risk-on crypto environment. If BTC and ETH are pumping, TRUMP is likely to follow. Watch for high-volume breakouts in these pairs to confirm TRUMP’s bullish momentum. 🕵️‍♂️ Why This Setup Rocks Bullish Confluence: Demand zone, TMA breakout, and golden cross align for a high-probability trade. Thief-Approved Strategy: Layered entries let you scale in like a pro, minimizing risk while maximizing gains. Community Appeal: This fun, professional vibe is crafted to grab attention, spark engagement, and maybe even land an Editor’s Pick! 🌟 ⚖️ Disclaimer This Thief Style trading idea is purely for educational and entertainment purposes. It’s a fun spin on market analysis, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research, assess your risk tolerance, and trade responsibly. The market’s a wild place—steal those gains at your own risk, Thieves! 😜 ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! #TradingView #CryptoHeist #TRUMPUSDT #SwingTrade #DayTrade #BullishBreakout #ThiefStrategy
Long
by The-Thief
TRUMPUSDT - Clear bottom!The Trump token shouldn’t be treated like any other coin — it has backing from big companies and institutions, and more importantly, it’s directly tied to the U.S. President himself. 🇺🇸 Right now, the entire crypto market is forming a bottom that looks almost identical to the one in September 2024, right before the massive rally in October. That’s a strong signal of the next bull market, and naturally, a coin with Trump’s significance will capture a huge share of that upside. Because honestly — if you can’t make money with Trump, you won’t make money in this market at all. It has been consolidating for more than 200 days, building a massive symmetrical triangle. Once that breakout happens, the minimum target is $30, and it could hit that level easily in a very short time. Keep a close eye on it. Best Regards: Ceciliones🎯
Long
by ceciliones
14
TRUMP Possible breakoutBINANCE:TRUMPUSDT Current Status The overall trend is bearish, but there's a strong and solid support zone between $8 and $8.50. On the daily timeframe, this support is still valid and has not been broken yet. Right now, we have a descending trendline that the price is trying to break for the umpteenth time, and we're seeing another attempt today. There's a chance the descending trendline could break, or it could fail and lead to a drop. In either case, the price of $8.45 could be a good spot for a long position with a 1:3.5 risk-to-reward ratio. Personally, I never enter a position the moment a trendline breaks. I always wait for the price to come back to my desired entry point, which happens most of the time. ⛔ Disclaimer: This is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy. Please do your own research.
Long
by Madoir
BTCUSD Breakout Above Trendline – Bullish Continuation Setup🔹 Market Context On the 15m timeframe, Bitcoin has decisively broken above the descending trendline that had previously acted as dynamic resistance with multiple rejections. This breakout occurred after the market created Equal Highs (EQH) and engineered liquidity above them, followed by a Break of Structure (BOS) and a confirmed Change of Character (CHoCH) to the upside. The breakout not only invalidates the short-term bearish structure but also signals a possible shift in order flow, with buyers stepping in after liquidity collection. ⸻ 🔹 Price Action Breakdown • Liquidity Grab: The equal highs at ~$108,700–$108,900 were swept, clearing stop orders and creating fuel for a push higher. • Trendline Break: The clean break and close above the descending trendline suggests weakening seller control. • Retest Opportunity: Price may revisit the broken trendline or recent demand zone (~$108,700–$108,900) before continuing upward. • Strong High in Play: The $110,500 zone represents the untested supply area and “strong high” that will likely attract price in the short term. ⸻ 🔹 Trade Idea (Bullish Bias) • Entry Zone: Retest of $108,700–$108,900 demand area • Stop Loss: Below $108,250 (invalidates bullish structure) • Take Profit Targets: • TP1: $109,350 → first reaction level • TP2: $109,750–$110,000 → psychological liquidity pool • TP3: $110,500 → untested supply / strong high ⸻ CFI:BTCUSD 🔹 Invalidation If BTC closes back below $108,250 with strong momentum, this would suggest a failed breakout and reopen short opportunities toward $107,500 and $107,200. ⸻ 🔹 Bias Summary • Primary Bias: Bullish continuation after breakout • Key Zone to Hold: $108,700–$108,900 • Upside Targets: $109,350 → $110,500 • Invalidation Level: $108,250
CFI:BTCUSD
by KhaleelSuliman
#TRU/USDT Forming Falling Wedge ? #TRU The price is moving within an ascending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is on track to break it strongly upwards and retest it. We have support from the lower boundary of the ascending channel, at 0.0295. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, supporting the upside. There is a major support area (in green) at 0.0298, which represents a strong basis for the upside. Don't forget a simple thing: ease and capital. When you reach the first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order. For inquiries, please leave a comment. We have a trend to hold above the 100 Moving Average. Entry price: 0.0314. First target: 0.0321. Second target: 0.0332. Third target: 0.0345. Don't forget a simple thing: ease and capital. When you reach your first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order. For inquiries, please leave a comment. Thank you.
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
This Is Why TRUMP Price Didn’t Surge After Alaska MeetingBINANCE:TRUMPUSDT is currently trading at $9.17, holding above the support level of $9.04. This range-bound movement suggests that the price could continue consolidating between the $9.04 support and the resistance of $9.63. The market’s indecisiveness points to a period of low volatility. However, if the outflows continue, BINANCE:TRUMPUSDT could fall through the $9.04 support and fall to the next support level of $8.43. This would extend the losses and put further downward pressure on the price, signaling a potential decline. On the other hand, if BINANCE:TRUMPUSDT manages to flip the $9.63 resistance level into support, it could make its way towards $10.00 . This would require a change in investor sentiment, likely driven by renewed confidence in the asset's potential.
by BeInCrypto
Solana: On the Verge of a BreakoutCME: Solana ( CME:SOL1! ) and Micro Solana Futures ( CME:MSL1! ), #microfutures On August 7th, President Donald Trump issued an executive order concerning the 401(k) retirement plans. The key points: • The order aims to broaden the investment options available to participants in defined contribution plans by directing the Department of Labor (DOL) to explore regulatory changes. • The order focuses on making "alternative assets" more accessible as investment options, including private equity, private credit, real estate, and digital assets. • The order directs the DOL to review existing guidance and clarify fiduciary duties regarding alternative assets, with a focus on mitigating litigation risk that might discourage fiduciaries from offering these investment options. Cryptocurrency market surged upon this big news. This order could open a significant new pool of capital in the form of 401(k) savings to cryptocurrencies. Market size of 401(k) is currently estimated at $8.7 trillion. Potentially, this could expand to cover the $12.2 trillion held in all employer-based defined contribution (DC) retirement plans. According to CoinMarketCap, as of August 11th, the Top 5 Cryptos by market cap (excluding stablecoins) are: 1. Bitcoin (BTC), $2.4 trillion. At $120K, the king of Cryptos gained 27% year-to-date 2. Ethereum (ETH), $517 billion. At $4300, ETH also gained 27% in 2025 3. XRP, $190 billion ($3.20 each) 4. BNB, $111 billion ($800 each) 5. Solana (SOL), $96 billion. At $180, SOL is down 7.8% year-to-date Why did SOL fall while BTC and ETH rebounded and reached new highs? Solana is a blockchain platform that has rapidly gained popularity due to its focus on high speed, scalability, and low transaction costs. It is designed to support a wide range of decentralized applications (dApps), decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, NFTs, and Web3 applications. Since its launch in March 2020, Solana has quickly become a leading challenger to rival Ethereum. Solana's price declined in 2025 due to a combination of factors including broader market corrections, a decrease in activity on the network, particularly related to meme coins, and the impact of token unlocks from the FTX bankruptcy. Additionally, the Solana blockchain has experienced several outages, which have negatively impacted investor confidence. In my opinion, the tail wind propelling BTC and ETH will also push SOL higher. The 401(k) new capital infusion could have an outsized impact on SOL due to its smaller market cap. Bargain hunters may scoop up SOL because of its relatively low prices. Earlier, ETH rebounded from $1,500 to $4,300 after BTC initiated a bull run. A similar catchup rise could happen to SOL. Trading with SOL and MSL CME Group launched Solana futures (SOL) and Micro Solana futures (MSL) on March 17th. Since launch, SOL and MSL have seen a total of 153.1K contracts traded, representing $4.6B in notional value and 31.2K equivalent SOL. A trader sharing a bullish view on Solana could explore CME SOL or MSL futures. SOL futures have a notional value of 500 Solana coins. With the current market price at $180, each SOL contract is valued at $90,000. To buy or sell one contract, a trader is required to post an initial margin of $38,210. MSL futures have a notional value of 25 coins. Each MSL contract is valued at $4,500 at the current price level. A trader is required to post an initial margin of $1,911. To maintain a long position in Solana over the long run, while enjoying capital efficiency through leverage, a trader may employ a futures rollover strategy. Rollover is when a trader moves his position from the front month contract to another contract further in the future, prior to the expiration of his existing holding. These steps illustrate how to hold a long Micro Solana Futures position overtime: • In August, a trader buys (going long) a September contract (MSLU5). • About two weeks before the contract expires on the last Friday in September, the trader will enter an offsetting trade, going short on MBTU5 to close his existing position. He would book a profit or loss, determined by the difference in selling and purchasing prices. • Simultaneously, the trader would buy a December contract (MSLZ5) and reestablish a long position in Solana. • In mid-December, the trader will close out MSLZ5 (going short), and buy a March 2026 contract (MSLH6), and continue to hold a long position on Solana. • The trader would repeat the above steps, so far as he holds a bullish view. Warnings: Solana prices are extremely volatile. Holding spot Solana coins with no leverage could face potential drawdown of 70%-80%. With leverage embedded in futures, a price move in the wrong direction could quickly deplete the available fund and trigger margin calls. One advantage Micro Solana futures contracts have over the spot asset is the daily price limit. If MSL moves up or down 10% within the trading day, futures trading will be halted. This will give the market time to cool off and help investors avoid being blown out by short-term panic. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:MSL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
Approachable Contracts for Trading Around Fed DecisionsCME Group E-Mini S&P Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) and Micro S&P Futures ( CME_MINI:MES1! ), #microfutures On July 30th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged at the 4.25-4.50% target range. Investors now turn their focus on whether the Fed will cut rates on the September 16th-17th FOMC meeting. According to CME FedWatch Tool, as of August 6th, there is a 92.4% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in September. My observation: • Before July FOMC, market consensus was no rate cut, with the odds at 95.3% as of July 20th. Investors now overwhelmingly expect rate cuts to come at the next meeting. • Two Fed governors broke the long-run consent and voted against the FOMC decision. Today, I would like to explore two trading strategies focusing on the next Fed decision. We will start by breaking down all possible Fed decisions as follows: 1) Cut rates by 25 basis points (92.4%) 2) No rate cuts (7.6%) 3) All others, such as cutting by 50 bps and raising rates by 25 bps (0%) If we deem the 3rd option to be statistically insignificant, we now have an event with binary outcomes, namely, Cut and No Cut . Since “Cut” is the market consensus, we will translate the possible outcomes as: • Meet market expectations (Cut Rates) • Exceed market expectations (No Cut) Furthermore, financial markets will likely react calmly if the Fed decision meets expectations, while asset prices could swing widely if the FOMC exceeds expectations. Typically, US stock market indexes, interest rate contracts and the US dollar exchange rates are very sensitive to the Fed decisions. Our discussion today will focus on stock indexes. I will follow up on the other two asset classes in future writings. Based on the above analytical framework, we could design two sets of trading strategies: Sell Call Options if a trader expects the Fed to cut rates • Since the decision meets expectations, asset prices would not move a lot. • Options may expire worthiness, which allows sellers to pocket the premium as profit. Sell Futures if a trader expects No Cut • Since the decision exceeds expectations, S&P prices could go down sharply. • With build-in leverage in futures contracts, a trader could realize enhanced profit. Now, let’s explore how to structure trading strategies using S&P futures and options. Hypothetical Fed Decision 1: Meet Expectations Cutting rates is bullish for S&P as it will lower borrowing costs for component companies. However, since market already priced in a Fed cut, stock prices will not move a lot. If a trader shares this view, he could explore selling Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Call Options on CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures ( NYSE:ES ). Each ES contract has a notional value of $50 x S&P 500 Index. On August 6th, the September ES contract (ESU5) is quoted at 6,341, making the notional value at $317,050. • Call options at the 6500-strike are quoted at $42. By selling 1 call, options seller will receive $2,100 in upfront premium (= 42 x 50). • Options expire on September 19th, two days after the FOMC. If ESU5 price does not exceed 6500, options seller will pocket the premium as profit. • Warnings: selling options involves significant risks. Seller could lose more than the premium he collected. To cut losses, seller could buy back at the open market and exit the position. This will avoid losses to accumulate by expiration date. Hypothetical Fed Decision 2: Exceed Expectations Since rate cut is already priced in, an Unchanged decision will likely cause the S&P to fall sharply, as expected future borrowing costs will go up. If a trader shares this view, he could explore selling CME Micro S&P 500 futures ( MSTAR:MES ). Each MES contract has a notional value of $5 x S&P 500 Index. On August 6th, the notional value of ESU5 is $31,705. Buying or selling 1 futures contract requires an upfront margin deposit of $2,135 at the time of this writing. Micro S&P 500 futures are 1/10 in notional comparing to its E-Mini counterpart. With smaller size and lower margin requirement, the micro contracts are more approachable for non-professional traders. At the same time, they also enjoy the leverage built-in the futures contracts. Micro S&P contracts tap into the liquidity pool with the broad S&P contract suite. Hypothetical Trade • Short 1MESU5 at 6,341, and set a stop loss at 6450 • Trader pays $2,135 for initial margin A “Meet” Scenario: S&P go up 1.5% to 6,436 • Short position loss: $475 (= (6436-6341) x 5) • The maximum loss will be $545 if the S&P moves higher, due to the stop-loss feature An “Exceed” Scenario: S&P falls 5% to 6,024 • Short position gain: $1,585 (= (6341-6024) x 5) • The theoretical return is 74.2% (= 1585/2135), excluding transaction fees Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
DXY Bulls Ready — Can Powell Spark the Rally?📊 DXY Pre-FOMC Outlook In my previous analysis released on Monday, I expected the Dollar Index to fill the gap around the 98.60 zone and range below the key red line at 99.429. Now, with less than 8 hours left until the highly anticipated FOMC rate decision, it’s time to take a closer look at tonight’s event and what it could mean for the markets. From a purely technical perspective — setting the news aside — the Dollar Index looks ready to break through the crucial 100 level and kick off a strong bullish rally. However, recent political pressure from Trump urging rate cuts, along with visible tension between him and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has created uncertainty. If it weren’t for these conflicting signals, I would’ve confidently expected a clean breakout above 100. As much as I enjoy trading news-driven events, I’ll likely stay out of the market tonight and observe from the sidelines. The setup is tempting, but the dual narratives make it risky. That said — if you ask for my final take — I believe the stage is fully set for a bullish dollar and a corresponding drop in gold, EUR, GBP, and other major assets. Let’s see how it plays out. 👀💥
TVC:DXY
by Mehrasfx
TRUMPUSDT Forming Falling WedgeTRUMPUSDT is currently forming a well-defined falling wedge pattern—a bullish reversal structure that often leads to significant upside breakouts. The price has been consolidating within narrowing trendlines and now appears to be approaching a breakout point. Historically, falling wedge patterns in the crypto market have led to aggressive rallies, especially when combined with rising volume and strong community sentiment. With good volume backing this setup, a breakout could trigger a sharp move to the upside, projecting an expected gain of 90% to 100%+ in the coming sessions. Investor interest in the TRUMPUSDT project has been steadily increasing, likely fueled by the coin’s strong branding and community-driven momentum. Meme-based and politically themed tokens have seen explosive growth in recent bull cycles, and TRUMPUSDT may be positioning itself to capitalize on similar attention. With sentiment aligning positively and technicals flashing bullish signals, the coin is attracting both short-term swing traders and long-term speculative holders. If TRUMPUSDT confirms a breakout above the upper wedge resistance with volume confirmation, we could see rapid price expansion. Traders should monitor key levels and consider re-entry on retests or strong bullish candles. The momentum shift is already becoming apparent, and this coin could turn into a trending asset in the meme-token segment very soon. Keep this setup on your radar as it may provide high-reward opportunities. Monitor community updates, upcoming events, and broader meme coin momentum across the market for additional confirmation. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
Long
by Alpha-GoldFX
2
Gold Bulls Back in Control as Trump Pressures Fed for Rate CutsHey Realistic Traders! President Trump is ramping up pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates , saying the U.S. is falling behind countries with looser policies. As several Fed officials begin to shift their stance, expectations for rate cuts are growing. That’s putting pressure on the dollar and giving gold a fresh boost. We’ll take a closer look at what this means for OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold) through technical analysis and explore its upside potential. Technical Analysis On the 4-hour chart, Gold has moved above the EMA-200, signaling a shift in momentum to the upside. Price has also broken out of a Descending Broadening Wedge (DBW) pattern, which often indicates the start of a bullish trend. The breakout was confirmed by a Bullish Marubozu candle, reflecting strong buying pressure. To add further confirmation, the MACD has formed a bullish crossover, reinforcing the upward momentum. Looking ahead, the first target is seen at 3417. If reached, a minor pullback toward the historical resistance zone (green area) may occur, with a potential continuation toward the second target at 3500. This bullish outlook remains valid as long as the price stays above the stop-loss level at 3271 . A break below this level would invalidate the setup and shift the outlook back to neutral. Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below. Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on XAUUSD.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
10Y: Positioning for a Falling Yield EnvironmentCBOT: Micro 10 Year Yield Futures ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ), #microfutures The Federal Reserve last cut interest rates in December 2024. Since then, it has kept the rates unchanged in its January, March, April and June FOMC meetings. While the official Fed Funds rate stays at 4.25-4.50% in the past seven months, we have seen diverging trends in the interest rate market: • 2-Year Yield has trended down from 4.25% to around 3.85%; • 10-Year Yield mostly moved sideways, currently at 4.42%; • 30-Year Yield rose from 4.60% to top 5.00% in May, then pulled back to 4.89%. The futures market expects the Fed to cut rates once or twice in the remaining four FOMC meetings in 2025, according to CME Fed Watch Tool. • As of July 20th, there is a 95.3% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in its July 30th meeting; • The odd of lowering 25 bps is approximately 60% for September 17th; • By the last 2025 meeting on December 10th, futures market sees just 6.4% chance that the Fed keeps the rates at current level 4.25-4.50%, while the odds of 1 cut to 4.00-4.25% are 29.2%, and the odds of 2 cuts to 3.75-4.00% are 64.3%. The Fed’s Challenges The Fed tries to fulfil its dual mandate established by the Congress: (1) to support maximum employment and (2) to maintain price stability. Its official targets are to keep the unemployment rate below 4%, as measured by the BLS nonfarm payroll data, and to keep the inflation rate at 2%, as measured by the PCE price index. When we face an outlook of rising prices and slowing employment, the Fed will have a hard time meeting both policy goals. Firstly, as the Trump Administration raises tariffs for all trading partners on all imports, it’s a matter of time before the inflation rate picks up again. Even if many countries may reach trade agreements with the U.S., they will still get a bigger tax bill. • According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the total US imports of goods and services was $4.1 trillion for 2024. • Imports account for 14% of the US GDP in 2024, which is $29.2 trillion (BEA data). • Simple math suggests that a universal 10% tariff hike could contribute to 1.4% in price increases, assuming all tariffs are passed through to the retail prices. The most recent inflation data is the June CPI at 2.7% (BLS data). The tariff hike could easily push inflation to twice the Fed policy target. Therefore, cutting rates will be a very difficult decision if inflation rebounds. Secondly, US employment growth has slowed down significantly in 2025. On July 3rd, the BLS reported total nonfarm payroll increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent. Current employment growth is less than half the level in December 2024, which saw the data above 300,000. There are weaknesses in the payroll data. All private sectors combined accounted for about half of the employment gain, or 74,000. Government jobs, while at a much smaller base, accounted for the other half. Tariffs raise the cost of input, while business borrowing costs remain high at current rate level. To support growth and maximum employment, cutting rates make sense. Finally, the Fed is under tremendous pressure from the Administration. President Trump openly and repeatedly calls for a 300bp cut. In an ideal world, the Fed wants to make monetary policy decisions free of political interference. It may not be the case. Let’s look at the Fed rate decisions during the first Trump presidential term. The current Fed Chair was appointed to the role by President Trump in February 2018. • The Fed raised interest rates four times in 2018, for a total of 100 basis points, with the Fed Funds rate increased from 1.25-1.50% to 2.25-2.50%. • Under pressure from the White House, the Fed cut rates three times in 2019 for a total of 75 basis points, with the Fed Funds rate ending at 1.50-1.75%. • In 2020, in response to the Pandemic, the Fed cut rates by 150 points, all the way to a zero-rate environment (0%-0.25%). In my opinion, the Fed will cut rates this year, similar to 2019. Once the Fed Chair retires in May 2026, his replacement, who will be nominated by President Trump, will no doubt follow his guidelines and bring the Fed Funds rate all the way down to 1%-2% level. While there is uncertainty in the timing and pace, we are likely to embark on the path to low interest-rate environment. Shorting Micro 10-Year Yield Futures A trader sharing a bearish view on interest rates could explore shorting the CBOT Micro 10-Year Yield Futures ($10Y). Last Friday, the August 10Y contract (10YQ5) was settled at 4.425. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 index points, or a market value of $4,425. To buy or sell 1 contract, a trader is required to post an initial margin of $300. The margining requirement reflects a built-in leverage of 14.7-to-1. Let’s use a hypothetical trade to illustrate how to use a short futures position to take advantage of a potential Fed rate cut. Hypothetical Trade: • Short 1 10YQ5 at 4.425, and set a stop loss at 4.60 • Trader pays $300 for initial margin Scenario 1: Fed keeps rates unchanged on July 30th, 10Y moves sideways • If Futures price changes little after the July FOMC, the trader could close the position • He could short the September contract 10YU5, with an eye open for the September 17th FOMC rate decision • This is a futures rollover strategy. Scenario 2: Fed cuts 25 bps on July 30th, 10YU5 falls 250 points to 4.175 • Short position gains: $250 (= (4.425-4.175) x 1000) • The hypothetical return will be 83% (= 250 / 300) Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:2YY1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
TrueFi (TRU)#TRU The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is expected to break and continue upward. We have a trend to stabilize above the 100 moving average once again. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that supports the upward break. We have a support area at the lower limit of the channel at 0.0270, acting as strong support from which the price can rebound. We have a major support area in green that pushed the price upward at 0.0260. Entry price: 0.0275 First target: 0.0281 Second target: 0.0290 Third target: 0.0301 To manage risk, don't forget stop loss and capital management. When you reach the first target, save some profits and then change the stop order to an entry order. For inquiries, please comment. Thank you.
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
Copper: Event-driven Trade Idea on Recent TariffsCOMEX: Micro Copper Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MHG1! ), #microfutures The Event On July 9th, President Trump announced that he would impose a 50% tariff on imports of copper, effective August 1st. The decision was based on national security assessment. Copper is the second most used material by the U.S. Department of Defense. The President intents to use tariffs to reduce reliance on imports and shore up support for domestic production. Immediate Market Reaction U.S. copper prices ended Tuesday’s session over 13% higher — the sharpest single-day gain since 1989. The September COMEX copper futures contract was settled at $5.584 a pound on Friday, up 35.7% year-to-date. Due to tariffs, Copper in the U.S. is priced at a large premium over international markets. • UK: LME copper contract was quoted at $9,660.5 per ton on Friday. • China: SHFE coper futures was settled at RMB 78,420 per ton. It can be converted to $10,959.4 via the Dollar/RMB exchange rate of 7.1555. • US: COMEX copper quote of $5.584 can be converted to $12,312.7 per ton. • As of Friday, COMEX copper is priced at a 27.5% premium over LME copper, and a 12.3% premium over SHFE copper. The U.S. Copper Market The U.S. Geological Survey reports that the 2024 total refined copper consumption was 1.8 million metric tons. Of which, 850,000 tons were from mining, 150,000 tons were refined from scrap, and 810,000 tons from imports. Chile is the biggest source of U.S. copper imports, accounting for 581,000 tons, or 71.7% of total imports. Canada is the second largest, for 169,000 tons, or 20.9%. Copper is a widely used base metal, found in products ranging from machinery, electronics, household goods, housing, infrastructure projects, to aircraft and missiles. Since President Trump announced a probe into copper in February, traders have been poised for a hike on copper duties, leading to major shifts in inventories away from Europe and Asia and into the U.S. The Next Event: Will the Copper Tariffs get postponed or reduced? The goal to increase domestic production of copper is very challenging. It will take years to ramp up and decades to fully meet demand — at a massive upfront investment cost. Hiking the import duties would not help national security. It could not change the fact that the biggest copper mines are in Chile, Peru and Canada. A sharp increase in the cost of copper will quickly translate into wide-ranging inflation in the U.S. In my opinion, once the Trump administration realizes the full impacts, we could possibly see a crawl-back from the intended copper tariffs. The effective date would be postponed, the tariff rate could be reduced, and many companies may get exemption/waiver. We have seen similar maneuvers happening multiple times in the past few months. Overall, the actual impact of copper tariffs will be much smaller than the original announcement. Shorting COMEX Copper Futures Historically, the price difference between COMEX and LME coppers has been near-zero and was around the $150 level in 2024. Since February, COMEX copper has been trading at $500-$1,500 premium over LME. As of Friday, COMEX copper futures have gone up 35% this year and are now priced at $2,652 per ton above LME copper. In my opinion, these price differences reflect no economic fundamentals. It is purely due to the ever-changing global tariff conflict. If President Trump rescinds his tariff narratives, we could likely see a large drop in COMEX copper prices. A trader sharing this view could explore shorting the COMEX Micro copper ( GETTEX:MHG ). Last Friday, the September micro copper futures contract (MHGU5) was settled at 5.5910. Each contract has a notional value of 2,500 pounds of high-grade copper, or a market value of $13,977.5. To buy or sell 1 contract, a trader is required to post an initial margin of $1,100. The margining requirement reflects a built-in leverage of 12.7-to-1. Let’s use a hypothetical trade to illustrate how to use a short futures position to take advantage a potential reduction on copper tariffs. Hypothetical Trade: • Short 1 MHGU5 contract at 5.5910, and set a stop loss at 6.00 • Trader pays $1,100 for initial margin Scenario 1: Tariffs go into effect, copper rises to $6.57 • Futures reflect a 50% premium over current LME copper price, which is at $4.38 per pound • Short order stop loss at 6.00, and the maximum loss is $1,022.5 (= (6-5.591) x 2500) • The trader loses most of the margining fund, but owes no more Scenario 2: Trump Rescinds Tariffs, Copper falls to $4.38 • COMEX copper will be priced at No premium over LME • Short position gains: $3,027.5 (= (5.591-4.38) x 2500) • The hypothetical return will be 275.2% (= 3027.5 / 1100) The above scenarios show that • When copper falls, short position will have higher returns due to its leverage nature. • When copper rises, the stoploss will kick in to set maximum losses. The above trade idea could be deployed using the standard-size Copper Futures contract. Its notional value is 25,000 tons, which is 10 times bigger than that of the micro contract. The initial margin is $11,000. The standard-size contract is more liquid. On Friday, it had a total volume of 60,313 contracts, and an open interest of 221,682. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MHG1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
TRUMP BUY ???Hello friends🙌 🔊As you can see in the picture, we have brought you two Trump charts: 1_TRUMP/USDT, in which we see an upward trend. 2_TRUMP/BTC, in which we see a downward trend. ✔Now what is the conclusion? When this negative divergence occurs, it means that money flows from Bit to Tether, and we can expect good growth from it to the specified targets, given the price reaching important support and its return📈 🔥Join us for more signals🔥 Trade safely with us.
Long
by TheHunters_Company
1
Canadian Dollar vs. US Dollar. The Spring Is Compressing.In previous posts, we have already begun to look at the key drivers of the US outperformance over the past decade. The US market dominance has been largely driven by the rapid rise of tech giants (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet), which have benefited from strong profit growth, global market reach and significant investor inflows. Unsatisfactory International Performance Markets outside the US have faced headwinds including multiple stifling sanctions and tariffs, slowing economic growth, political uncertainty (especially in Europe), a stronger US dollar and the declining influence of high-growth tech sectors. The Valuation Gap By 2025, US equities will be considered relatively expensive compared to their international peers, which may offer more attractive valuations in the future. Recent Shifts (2025 Trend) Since early 2025, international equities have begun to outperform the S&P 500, and European and Asian equities have regained investor interest. Global market currencies are also widely dominated by the US dollar. Factors include optimism around the following three big themes. DE-DOLLARIZATION. DE-AMERICANIZATION. DIVERSIFICATION. De-dollarization is the process by which countries reduce their reliance on the US dollar (USD) as the world's dominant reserve currency, medium of exchange, and unit of account in international trade and finance. This trend implies a shift away from the central role of the US dollar in global economic transactions to alternative currencies, assets, or financial systems. Historical context and significance of the US dollar The US dollar became the world's primary reserve currency after World War II, as enshrined in the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. This system pegged other currencies to the dollar, which was convertible into gold, making the dollar the backbone of international finance. The United States became the world's leading economic power, and the dollar replaced the British pound sterling as the dominant currency for global trade and reserves. The dollar has been the most widely held reserve currency for decades. As of the end of 2024, it still accounts for about 57% of global foreign exchange reserves, far more than the euro (20%) and the Japanese yen (6%). However, this share has fallen from over 70% in 2001, signaling a gradual shift and prompting discussions about de-dollarization. How De-Dollarization Works Countries looking to reduce their reliance on the dollar are pursuing several strategies: Diversifying reserves: Central banks are holding fewer U.S. dollars and increasing their holdings of other currencies, such as the euro, yen, British pound, or new alternatives such as the Chinese yuan. While the yuan's share remains small (about 2.2%), it has grown, especially among countries like Russia. Using alternative currencies in trade: Countries are entering into bilateral or regional agreements to conduct trade in their own currencies rather than using the dollar as an intermediary. For example, China has introduced yuan-denominated oil futures (the "petroyuan") to challenge the petrodollar system. Increasing gold reserves: Many countries, including China, Russia and India, have significantly increased their purchases of gold as a safer reserve asset, reducing their dollar holdings. Developing alternative financial systems: Some countries and blocs, such as BRICS, are working to develop alternatives to the US-dominated SWIFT payment system to avoid the risk of sanctions and gain true economic and political independence. Reasons for de-dollarization The move towards de-dollarization is driven by geopolitical and economic factors: Backlash against US economic hegemony: The US often uses dollar dominance to impose sanctions and exert political pressure, encouraging countries to seek financial sovereignty. Rise of new economic powers: Emerging economies like China and groups like the BRICS are seeking to reduce their vulnerability to U.S. influence and promote regional integration and alternative financial infrastructures. Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts like the war in Ukraine have intensified efforts by countries like Russia to remove the dollar from their reserves to avoid sanctions. Implications and outlook While the dollar remains dominant, a more de-dollarized world is already changing global economic power. The U.S. may lose some advantages, such as lower borrowing costs and geopolitical influence. For the U.S. economy, de-dollarization could lead to a weaker currency, higher interest rates, and reduced foreign investment, although some effects, such as inflation from a weaker dollar, could belimited . For other countries, de-dollarization could mean greater economic independence and less exposure to U.S. policy risks. However, no currency currently matches the dollar’s ​​liquidity, stability, and global recognition, so a full transition is unlikely in the near future . Summary De-dollarization is a complex, ongoing process that reflects a gradual shift away from the global dominance of the U.S. dollar. It involves diversifying reserves, using alternative currencies and assets, and creating new financial systems to reduce dependence on the dollar. Driven by geopolitical tensions and the rise of emerging economic powers, de-dollarization challenges the entrenched role of the dollar but is unlikely to completely replace it anytime soon. Instead, it is leading to a more multipolar monetary system in international finance, increasing demand for alternative investments to the U.S. Technical task The main technical chart is presented in a quarterly breakdown, reflecting the dynamics of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar FX_IDC:CADUSD in the long term. With the continued positive momentum of the relative strength indicator RSI(14), flat support near the level of 0.70 and a decreasing resistance level (descending top/ flat bottom) in case of a breakout represent the possibility of price growth to 0.80, with the prospect of parity in the currency pair and strengthening of the Canadian dollar to all-time highs, in the horizon of the next five years. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
by PandorraResearch
Trump:New update(don't miss it)hello friends👋 This time we came with the analysis of Trump's famous coin meme, which you requested a lot. Well, as you can see, by making a double floor, the price has broken its downward channel and has grown well. After the price growth, we saw the price suffering and then the price correction, which caused the formation of an upward pattern. Now, according to the successful formation of this ascending pattern, it should be seen whether the buyers support the price in the specified support areas or not... Pay attention that our trend is upward and the pattern made also shows an upward trend, that's why we have identified the support areas for you to enter the transaction step by step with risk and capital management. 🔥Follow us for more signals🔥 *Trade safely with us*
Long
by TheHunters_Company
6
#TRU/USDT#TRU The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading towards a strong breakout and retest. We are experiencing a rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel. This support is at 0.0300. We are experiencing a downtrend on the RSI indicator, which is about to break and retest, supporting the upward trend. We are in a trend of consolidation above the 100 Moving Average. Entry price: 0.0315 First target: 0.0327 Second target: 0.0337 Third target: 0.0350
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal