UiPath ($PATH) Earnings: Call the $11 Spike!
# 🚀 PATH Earnings Trade Setup — 09/04/2025
**Directional Bias:** **Moderate Bullish** (63% confidence)
**Event:** PATH FQ2 2026 Earnings (AMC 09/04/25)
**Strategy:** Short-dated, asymmetric **single-leg call**
---
## 🎯 Trade Details
| Item | Details |
| ----------------- | --------------------------------- |
| **Instrument** | PATH |
| **Direction** | CALL (LONG) |
| **Strike** | \$11.00 |
| **Expiry** | 09/05/2025 |
| **Entry Price** | \$0.58 |
| **Profit Target** | \$1.16 (+100%) |
| **Stop Loss** | \$0.29 (-50%) |
| **Size** | 1 contract (adjust per portfolio) |
| **Entry Timing** | Pre-earnings close |
| **Expected Move** | \~6% |
| **Confidence** | 63% (Moderate Bullish) |
---
## 🔍 Why This Trade
* **Guidance History:** 100% beat streak last 8 quarters → asymmetric upside.
* **Options Flow:** Heavy **call buying at \$11**, elevated OI & volume → potential **gamma squeeze**.
* **Technical:** Slightly bearish (below 50/200 MA) but neutral RSI — event-driven trade overrides weak technicals.
* **Fundamentals:** Strong cash & FCF; decelerating revenue & negative GAAP margins.
* **Macro/Sector:** Enterprise RPA tailwinds; cautious market sentiment.
---
## ⚡ Risk / Reward
* **Max Loss:** \$0.58 → \$58 per contract
* **Stop Loss:** \$0.29 → \$29 per contract
* **Target:** \$1.16 → \$116 per contract
* **R\:R (Stop / Target):** 1:2 (\~+200% upside vs -50% downside)
---
## 📈 Execution Tips
1. **Enter pre-close** on 09/04 at or near ask \$0.58.
2. **Scale out:** 50% at +100% (\$1.16), 50% at +200% (\$1.74).
3. **Hard stop:** 50% loss (\$0.29) or gap below \$10.00 → exit.
4. **Intraday exit:** Close within 2 hours post-market open if targets not hit.
5. **Size safely:** Risk ≤2–3% of portfolio.
---
## ⚠️ Key Risks
* Missed earnings / negative guidance → sharp drop, IV crush.
* High put OI below \$11 → downside hedges could exaggerate dips.
* Limited liquidity at open → use limit or mental price orders.
* Event-driven binary risk → only hold intraday; avoid overnight.
