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$BTC – Flip Zones Driving 4H StructureCRYPTOCAP:BTC flipped bullish after reclaiming the blue demand, then turned bearish at the red supply. We’re now pulling back from resistance, and the next clean setup likely forms on a retest of the blue zone. 🔑 Key zones Support (blue) ~$111k area — former base of the last impulse. Resistance (red) ~$114.5k–$115k — where sellers capped the rally. 🔎 Confluence Prior bearish rejection at red + bullish reaction at blue. Clear HH/HL structure only resumes if price holds blue and pushes back above red. 📊 Scenarios Bullish 📈 Pull back into $111k (blue), print higher-low / bullish candle, then continuation toward $115k → $117k. Bearish 📉 Lose the blue zone with a strong 4H close → open room for a deeper dip before buyers try again. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management. Good luck! 🍀 All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr.
Long
by TheSignalyst
6
BTC – Momentum Returns!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈BTC has been overall bullish trading within the rising broadening wedge marked in red. This week, BTC has been retesting the lower bound of the wedge. Moreover, the orange zone is a strong structure and previous ATH. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the lower red trendline and orange structure. 📚 As per my trading style: As #BTC approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for trend-following bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
6
AUD/USD - Forecast (To fall further)🇦🇺🇺🇸 AUD/USD – 8H Breakdown AUD/USD just wrapped up that juicy Wave 3 run and topped near 0.6780. Now we’re cooling off with a corrective pullback — perfect spot to hunt buys 👀 🎯 Buy Zones Buy Zone 1: 0.6520 – 0.6530 → first bounce area ⚡ Buy Zone 2 (Preferred): 0.6460 – 0.6480 → 71% retrace + wedge support 🏹 📈 Playbook Let price dip into demand (ideally Buy Zone 2). Load up → ride it back toward 0.6700. If bulls flex, we sweep those 0.6780 highs for liquidity. 🚀 🔍 Outlook Short-term: Expect deeper retrace into demand. Mid-term: Bulls looking for another leg higher. Bias : Pullback → Buy continuation 🔥
Long
by Jibzy_Trades
3
Key Levels & Trend Confirmation – US30US30 Update We use advanced data that counts the start of the cycle and all important key levels. On the low time frame, US30 is holding above the breakout zone (46,177 – 46,214), showing early signs of continuation. Key levels: 46,214 → first support on the low time frame. Holding this level keeps bullish momentum intact. 46,177 → important confirmation level for the main uptrend. If US30 closes below this, it could trigger a deeper pullback. As long as price holds above these zones, US30 remains in a bullish structure with potential to push higher. Downside risk: A breakdown below 46,177 would invalidate the current momentum and open space for correction toward 45,796 support. Major cycle level: 41,097 remains the cycle start and must-hold support in the bigger picture. Losing this level would shift the cycle to red. 📌 Summary Above 46,214 – 46,177 → bullish continuation remains in play. Break below 46,177 → correction risk, watch 45,796 as next support. Cycle start at 41,097 → key long-term level to keep the broader bullish cycle alive.
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by SatochiTrader
XLM Weekly Market Update – Long Setup📊 CRYPTOCAP:XLM Weekly Market Update – Long Setup As we can see on the weekly chart, CRYPTOCAP:XLM has formed a bullish double bottom pattern ✅ 👉 After the pullback, it broke out of the black resistance zone, confirming a bullish structure. 🔼 Trade Idea: 📈 Entry Price (Current): 0.4002 🎯 Targets: Target 1 → 0.4804 Target 2 → 0.6186 Target 3 → 0.7414 Target 4 → 0.8694 Target 5 → 0.9615 🛑 Stop Loss: 0.3370 ⚠️ Risk: ~15.80% 💰 Potential Reward: ~140.19% 📊 Risk/Reward Ratio: ~8.87 📌 Trade Type: Long 👉 If you’re holding CRYPTOCAP:XLM , these are the weekly targets & stop-loss to watch.
Long
by WaveRiders2
US INDEX Decisive Moment for next Major MoveThe Dollar has had the bulls and the bears at battle for weeks at the current price action BUT its come to its breaking point where is has to elect a winner BULLS OR BEARS ? Breaking it down thru each timeframe i believe 98.500 is what we have to break to confirm bullish Rally 103.000-105.000 next targets On the other hand if we break 97.000 bears have taken over 95.000 next target zone will look at US30 and EU along w other pairs to see if i can correlate anything
THINKMARKETS:USDINDEX
by jcatchinpips
Let’s Do It Again – XRP Retests the Triangle Support!XRP continues to coil inside a textbook symmetrical triangle on the 4H timeframe. 🔻 Sellers remain active at the descending trendline (red arrows). 🔹 Buyers are once again stepping in at the rising support (blue arrows). 📉 Price is now retesting the lower bound of the structure. As long as this zone holds, we can anticipate another potential bounce toward the upper boundary. 🚀 For the bulls to take full control, a break above the last high marked in orange is needed. A confirmed breakout from this triangle will likely define XRP’s next major move — either continuation higher or a bearish breakdown. This clean and well-defined triangle keeps XRP among the most exciting setups to watch right now! ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly. 📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk management, and trade execution. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
1
DXY Dollar Index: Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast# DXY Dollar Index: Comprehensive Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast Asset Class: US Dollar Index (DXY) Current Price: 97.855 (as of August 30, 2025, 12:59 AM UTC+4) Analysis Date: August 31, 2025 Market Context: Post-correction consolidation phase with emerging bullish momentum Executive Summary The Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 97.855, showing signs of stabilization after a significant decline from yearly highs. Our multi-dimensional technical analysis reveals a critical juncture where multiple timeframes converge, presenting both intraday scalping opportunities and swing trading setups. The analysis incorporates advanced pattern recognition, wave theory, and momentum indicators to provide actionable trading insights. Current Market Landscape The DXY exchange rate rose to 97.8549 on August 29, 2025, up 0.04% from the previous session, indicating short-term stabilization. However, over the past month, the United States Dollar has weakened 1.96%, and is down by 3.81% over the last 12 months. This presents a complex technical picture where short-term bullish momentum may be developing within a broader corrective phase. The DXY Dollar Index Futures kicked off the new week with a strong bullish candle, signaling renewed upward momentum, supported by non-commercial traders reducing their bearish bets according to recent COT data. Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Theory Analysis Based on recent Elliott Wave patterns, the descent from the May 29, 2025 high is currently unfolding as a five-wave impulse Elliott Wave pattern. From this high, wave ((i)) concluded at 98.35, followed by a corrective rally in wave ((ii)). The rally formed as an expanded flat, peaking at 99.43. Wave Count Structure: Primary Wave: Currently in corrective Wave 4 of larger degree cycle Intermediate Count: Completing 5-wave decline from 2025 highs Near-term: Potential Wave 5 completion around 96.50-97.00 zone Elliott Wave Targets: Immediate Support: 96.80-97.00 (Wave equality zone) Key Resistance: 99.40-99.80 (Previous Wave ((ii)) high) Major Resistance: 101.50-102.00 (Fibonacci confluence) Harmonic Pattern Analysis Active Patterns: 1. Potential Bullish Bat Pattern forming on 4H-Daily timeframe - X to A leg: 103.50 to 96.20 - A to B retracement: 38.2% at 98.98 - B to C projection: 88.6% of AB at 97.15 - Completion zone: 96.50-96.80 (88.6% XA retracement) 2. Bearish Gartley Pattern (Completed) - Generated sell signals at 99.20-99.50 range - Currently in profit-taking phase Fibonacci Confluence Zones: Strong Support: 96.50-96.80 (Multiple harmonic convergence) Resistance Cluster: 98.80-99.20 (38.2% and 50% retracements) Major Resistance: 101.20-101.80 (61.8% golden ratio) Wyckoff Theory Assessment Current Phase: Potential Accumulation Phase (Spring Test) Distribution Phase: Completed at 2025 highs (103.50+ region) Markdown Phase: May-August 2025 decline Current Position: Testing Spring levels around 96.50-97.50 Wyckoff Signals: - Volume divergence suggests smart money accumulation - Price action showing reduced selling pressure - Potential for markup phase if 98.50 resistance breaks W.D. Gann Analysis Gann Square of 9: - Natural resistance at 98 (perfect square) - Strong support at 96 (key Gann level) - Next major target: 100 (psychological and Gann confluence) Gann Time Theory: - Current time cycle suggests reversal window: September 3-10, 2025 - Major time square due: October 2025 (90-degree angle) - Price-Time balance suggests equilibrium around 97.50 Gann Angles: - 1x1 angle from August lows: 97.20 (active support) - 2x1 resistance line: 98.60 - 1x2 support angle: 96.40 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Current Cloud Status: - Price below Tenkan-sen (97.95) - Short-term bearish - Kijun-sen at 98.40 acting as dynamic resistance - Cloud (Kumo) resistance: 99.20-99.80 - Future Cloud: Thinning, suggesting volatility ahead Ichimoku Signals: - TK Cross: Pending bullish crossover if price holds above 97.50 - Cloud breakout target: 99.80+ - Support levels: Kijun-sen (98.40), Tenkan-sen (97.95) Technical Indicators Analysis Relative Strength Index (RSI) Daily RSI: 42.5 (Oversold but not extreme) 4H RSI: 38.2 (Approaching oversold territory) 1H RSI: 45.8 (Neutral zone) Divergence Alert: Bullish divergence forming on 4H timeframe Bollinger Bands (BB) Current Position: Lower third of bands Band Width: Contracting (low volatility environment) Squeeze Setup: Potential breakout within 3-5 trading days Direction Bias: Slight bullish based on band position Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) Daily VWAP: 98.12 (resistance) Weekly VWAP: 98.85 (major resistance) Monthly VWAP: 99.45 (significant overhead supply) Moving Averages Confluence SMA 20: 98.15 (immediate resistance) EMA 50: 98.75 (intermediate resistance) SMA 200: 100.20 (major trend line) Current Status: Below all major MAs (bearish bias) Candlestick Pattern Recognition Recent Formations: 1. Doji Star (August 29) - Indecision at support 2. Hammer Pattern (August 30) - Potential reversal signal 3. Bullish Engulfing setup developing Pattern Implications: - Short-term reversal signals strengthening - Volume confirmation needed for validation - Risk-reward favors long positions with tight stops Market Structure & Support/Resistance Key Support Levels: 1. 97.20-97.40 - Immediate support (Gann 1x1 angle) 2. 96.80-97.00 - Major support (Harmonic completion) 3. 96.20-96.50 - Critical support (Previous reaction low) 4. 95.50-95.80 - Ultimate support (2024 major low) Key Resistance Levels: 1. 98.15-98.40 - Immediate resistance (SMA 20 + Kijun-sen) 2. 98.80-99.20 - Intermediate resistance (Fibonacci + VWAP) 3. 99.40-99.80 - Major resistance (Elliott Wave + Cloud) 4. 101.20-101.80 - Long-term resistance (Multiple confluences) Trading Strategy & Time Frame Analysis Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H Charts) Bullish Scenario (Probability: 60%) Entry Zone: 97.40-97.60 (on pullback) Stop Loss: 97.15 (below harmonic completion) Target 1: 98.15 (Daily SMA 20) Target 2: 98.60 (Gann 2x1 angle) Target 3: 99.20 (Fibonacci resistance) Risk-Reward: 1:2.5 Bearish Scenario (Probability: 40%) Entry Zone: 98.40-98.60 (on failed breakout) Stop Loss: 99.00 (above key resistance) Target 1: 97.60 (immediate support) Target 2: 96.80 (Harmonic target) Target 3: 96.20 (Major support) Risk-Reward: 1:2.8 Swing Trading Strategy (4H - Monthly Charts) Primary Long Setup: Accumulation Zone: 96.50-97.50 Confirmation: Break above 98.80 with volume Swing Target 1: 100.20 (SMA 200) Swing Target 2: 102.50 (61.8% retracement) Ultimate Target: 105.00 (2025 high retest) Stop Loss: Below 96.20 Position Sizing: 2% risk per trade Time Horizon: 4-8 weeks Alternative Short Setup: Entry Condition: Failure at 99.50 resistance Confirmation: Break below 97.00 support Target 1: 95.50 (2024 low) Target 2: 93.80 (Extended projection) Stop Loss: Above 100.00 Time Horizon: 6-10 weeks Weekly Trading Plan (September 2-6, 2025) Monday-Tuesday: Consolidation Expected Range: 97.20-98.40 Strategy: Range trading, fade extremes Key Events: Watch for volume expansion Wednesday-Thursday: Potential Breakout Catalyst: Economic data releases Scenarios: Break above 98.60 (bullish) or below 97.00 (bearish) Strategy: Breakout trading with confirmation Friday: Trend Continuation Focus: Weekly close positioning Strategy: Hold winners, cut losers Risk Management: Reduce position sizes before weekend Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Rules: Intraday: Maximum 1% risk per trade Swing: Maximum 2% risk per trade Portfolio: Total DXY exposure not exceeding 5% Stop Loss Guidelines: Intraday: 25-30 pips maximum Swing: 80-120 pips based on volatility Time-based: Exit if no progress in 5 trading days Profit Taking Strategy: Scale out: 50% at first target, 30% at second, 20% runner Trailing stops: Implement after 1:1 risk-reward achieved Weekend rule: Close 70% of intraday positions before Friday close Market Psychology & Sentiment Current Sentiment Indicators: COT Data: Non-commercial traders reducing bearish bets Options Flow: Put-call ratio normalizing from extreme levels Technical Sentiment: Oversold conditions with emerging reversal signals Psychological Levels: 98.00: Round number resistance (psychological barrier) 100.00: Major psychological milestone 95.00: Critical psychological support External Factors & Market Context Geopolitical Considerations: - Federal Reserve policy stance monitoring required - Global economic data impacts (ECB, BOJ decisions) - Geopolitical tensions affecting safe-haven demand Economic Calendar Watch: - NFP data (First Friday of month) - Fed speakers and policy minutes - Inflation data releases - Global PMI readings Advanced Pattern Alerts Bull Trap Warning: Setup: False break above 99.00 followed by immediate reversal Confirmation: Heavy volume on break, light volume on decline Response: Wait for 4H close below 98.20 before shorting Bear Trap Alert: Setup: False break below 96.80 with quick recovery Confirmation: Immediate buying pressure and volume surge Response: Long entry on return above 97.20 with tight stops Technology Integration Automated Alerts Setup: 1. Price Alerts: 96.80, 97.50, 98.60, 99.20 2. RSI Alerts: <30 (oversold), >70 (overbought) 3. Volume Alerts: 150% above 20-day average 4. Pattern Alerts: Harmonic completion, Elliott Wave targets Trading Platform Integration: TradingView: Custom indicator stack with all mentioned tools MT4/MT5: Expert Advisor for automated entries Risk Management: Position sizing calculators Conclusion & Forecast Summary The DXY Dollar Index stands at a critical technical juncture with multiple analytical frameworks suggesting a potential reversal from current levels. The convergence of Elliott Wave completion zones, harmonic pattern targets, and Wyckoff accumulation signals creates a compelling risk-reward setup for both intraday and swing traders. Primary Scenario (65% probability): Consolidation between 96.80-98.60 followed by breakout to 100.20+ levels over the next 4-6 weeks. Alternative Scenario (35% probability): Failed recovery leading to extended decline toward 95.50-94.00 zone. Trading Bias: Cautiously bullish with defensive positioning until confirmation above 98.80 resistance cluster. Key Success Factors: - Strict adherence to risk management protocols - Multiple timeframe confirmation before major position increases - Continuous monitoring of Federal Reserve policy developments - Adaptation to changing market structure and volatility conditions --- *This analysis incorporates advanced technical methodologies including Elliott Wave Theory, Harmonic Patterns, Wyckoff Analysis, Gann Theory, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, combined with traditional indicators and market structure analysis. All price targets and support/resistance levels are derived from mathematical relationships and historical price behavior patterns.* Risk Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. Traders should conduct their own analysis and consider their risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
TVC:DXY
by sunya
US30 Technical Analysis Report - Dow Jones Industrial Average# US30 Technical Analysis: Dow Jones Industrial Average Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Executive Summary Current Price: 45,572.6 (August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish with Fed Policy Tailwinds Primary Trend: Strong Uptrend with Consolidation Characteristics Key Catalyst: Powell's Jackson Hole Speech Signaling Potential September Rate Cuts The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to exhibit remarkable strength, trading near all-time highs following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole. The index benefits from renewed optimism around rate cuts while maintaining its traditional value-oriented composition that typically outperforms during monetary easing cycles. Market Context & Fundamental Backdrop Federal Reserve Policy Landscape Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech marked a significant shift in policy stance, with Powell indicating that conditions "may warrant" interest rate cuts. The Fed's dual mandate balance is shifting, with labor market risks now potentially outweighing inflation concerns. Markets are pricing in high probability of a September rate cut, with the current federal funds rate maintained at 4.25%-4.5%. Economic Environment Assessment The US economy has shown resilience despite policy uncertainties, though Powell warned of "unusual" labor market behavior that could become concerning. Recent inflation data has provided some reassurance to investors, with the consumer price index rising 2.7%, though tariff impacts remain a wildcard for future inflation trajectory. Dow Jones Composition Dynamics The Dow's 30 blue-chip constituents, including industrials, financials, and consumer staples, are well-positioned to benefit from lower interest rates. The index's price-weighted structure means high-priced stocks like Boeing, Goldman Sachs, and UnitedHealth Group carry significant influence on movements. Recent Performance Context The Dow has demonstrated exceptional strength, with recent sessions showing solid gains. The index reached fresh record highs during August, powered by strong performances from components like Home Depot. The index closed at 45,418.07 on August 26, showing consistent upward momentum throughout the month. Technical Analysis Framework Japanese Candlestick Analysis Weekly Pattern: Strong bullish marubozu candles indicating sustained buying pressure Daily Pattern: Small-bodied candles with long lower shadows showing buying on dips Intraday Patterns: Morning star formations frequent in 4H timeframe supporting bullish bias Volume Confirmation: Above-average volume on advances, lighter volume on pullbacks Elliott Wave Analysis Primary Wave Structure: Major Degree: Wave 5 of secular bull market showing powerful extension Intermediate Degree: Subwave 5 of major Wave 5 in progress with strong momentum Minor Degree: Currently in subwave 3 of intermediate Wave 5 Wave Characteristics: Impulse Structure: Clear five-wave advance from 2020 lows Extension Pattern: Wave 5 showing characteristics of extended fifth wave Target Analysis: Potential completion zone 47,000-48,500 based on Fibonacci projections Critical Support: Wave 4 correction low at 44,200-44,500 maintains bullish structure Harmonic Pattern Recognition Active Harmonic Formations: Bullish ABCD Pattern: Near completion with D point target 46,200-46,500 Potential Cypher: Long-term formation with completion zone 47,500-48,000 Three Drives Pattern: Current structure suggesting final drive higher Fibonacci Analysis: - 1.272 extension: 45,800 (approaching) - 1.414 extension: 46,400 (intermediate target) - 1.618 extension: 47,200 (major target) - 2.0 extension: 48,500 (extended target) Wyckoff Method Analysis Phase Assessment: Markup Phase C - Strong hands control Accumulation Evidence: - Successful test of support zones showing institutional buying - Sign of Strength (SOS) on Fed policy optimism - Last Point of Support (LPS) established around 44,500 - Backup to Edge of Creek (BUE) showing minimal selling pressure Markup Characteristics: - Sustained advances on increasing volume - Minor pullbacks on light volume - No climactic selling evident W.D. Gann Technical Analysis # Square of 9 Application Current Position: 45,572.6 = 213.48° on the Gann wheel Critical Resistance Levels: - 45,796 (214°) - immediate geometric resistance - 46,225 (215°) - intermediate resistance zone - 46,656 (216°) - major resistance confluence Key Support Levels: - 45,369 (213°) - immediate geometric support - 44,944 (212°) - strong support zone - 44,521 (211°) - major support level # Time Theory Application Critical Time Windows: - September 2-6: 45-degree time angle from recent high - September 20-23: Autumn equinox natural turning point - October 14-21: 90-degree time cycle completion - November 11-18: 144-degree major cycle # Price and Time Squaring Analysis Square Root of Price: √45,572.6 = 213.48 Next Significant Square Levels: - 214² = 45,796 (immediate resistance) - 215² = 46,225 (key target zone) - 216² = 46,656 (intermediate target) - 220² = 48,400 (major target) Support Square Levels: - 213² = 45,369 (immediate support) - 212² = 44,944 (strong support) - 210² = 44,100 (major support) # Gann Angle Analysis Primary Angles from Major Low: - 1x1 Angle: Providing dynamic support around 45,200 - 2x1 Angle: Resistance trend line near 46,000 - 1x2 Angle: Long-term support at 44,500 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Cloud Configuration: Tenkan-sen (9): 45,580 - Price slightly below, neutral to bullish Kijun-sen (26): 45,420 - Price above, confirming bullish bias Senkou Span A: 45,500 (cloud top) Senkou Span B: 44,800 (cloud bottom) Chikou Span: Above price action 26 periods ago (strongly bullish) Assessment: Price trading above bullish cloud with all components aligned for continued strength. Multi-Timeframe Technical Indicator Analysis 5-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) RSI(14): 58.2 - Bullish momentum without overbought conditions VWAP: 45,568 - Price trading slightly above VWAP showing strength Bollinger Bands: Middle band at 45,570, upper band at 45,620 Stochastic: 62.1 in bullish territory with room for advancement Volume: Steady participation with no unusual spikes Scalping Levels: Micro Resistance: 45,590, 45,615, 45,640 Micro Support: 45,545, 45,520, 45,495 15-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) MACD: Positive momentum with bullish crossover potential Williams %R: -38% showing healthy pullback from overbought Moving Averages: EMA(20) > SMA(20) confirming short-term strength Volume Profile: High volume node at 45,520-45,580 Key Trading Ranges: Bullish Zone: 45,550-45,580 (buying opportunities) Neutral Zone: 45,520-45,550 (range trading) Bearish Zone: Below 45,520 (short opportunities) 1-Hour Chart (Day Trading) RSI(14): 61.3 - Strong bullish momentum with room for extension VWAP: 45,485 providing dynamic support trend ADX(14): 34.2 indicating strong trend conditions Parabolic SAR: Below price at 45,420 (bullish signal intact) Day Trading Structure: Primary Resistance: 45,650-45,700 Secondary Resistance: 45,800-45,850 Primary Support: 45,450-45,500 Secondary Support: 45,350-45,400 4-Hour Chart (Swing Trading) RSI(14): 65.4 in overbought territory but sustainable in strong trends MACD: Strong positive momentum with histogram expanding Bollinger Bands: Price at upper band with band expansion indicating trend strength Ichimoku: All components bullishly aligned Swing Trading Analysis: Breakout Zone: Above 45,700 targets 46,000-46,200 Support Structure: 45,300-45,400 critical for trend continuation Stop Placement: Below 45,200 invalidates near-term bullish structure Daily Chart (Position Trading) RSI(14): 68.7 showing strong momentum but approaching overbought MACD: Robust positive momentum with room for extension Volume: Consistent above-average participation on advances Moving Averages: All major MAs aligned in bullish configuration Position Trading Framework: Trend Channel: Upper channel resistance near 46,500 Support Trend Line: Rising support around 44,800-45,000 Pattern Analysis: Ascending channel with room for upper channel test Weekly Chart (Long-term Analysis) RSI(14): 72.1 approaching overbought levels (caution warranted) MACD: Strong weekly momentum with positive histogram Long-term Trend: Powerful secular uptrend since 2009 lows intact Major Resistance: 47,000-47,500 based on measured moves Monthly Chart (Strategic Perspective) RSI(14): 74.3 significantly overbought (distribution risk increasing) Long-term Structure: Multi-decade bull market showing maturity signs Secular Targets: 50,000-52,000 based on long-term projections Major Support: 40,000-42,000 represents significant correction zone Comprehensive Support and Resistance Analysis Primary Support Structure 1. 45,450-45,500: VWAP and Kijun-sen confluence (immediate) 2. 45,350-45,400: Previous consolidation zone with volume 3. 45,200-45,250: Rising trend line and minor swing support 4. 45,000-45,100: Psychological level and major trend confluence 5. 44,800-44,900: Cloud bottom and structural support 6. 44,500-44,600: Elliott Wave support and institutional interest 7. 44,200-44,300: Major correction low and key trend defense Primary Resistance Structure 1. 45,650-45,700: Immediate intraday resistance and breakout level 2. 45,800-45,850: Short-term resistance and measured move target 3. 46,000-46,100: Major psychological level and Gann confluence 4. 46,200-46,300: Harmonic pattern completion zone 5. 46,500-46,600: Channel resistance and intermediate targets 6. 47,000-47,200: Major resistance zone and long-term targets 7. 47,500-48,000: Extended targets and secular resistance Weekly Trading Strategy (September 2-6, 2025) Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - US Markets Closed) Market Environment: US equity markets closed for Labor Day holiday Strategy Focus: Pre-positioning analysis for Tuesday's open International Impact: Monitor global markets for overnight developments Pre-Market Preparation: Gap Analysis: Assess any gap formation from Friday's close Overnight News: Monitor for Fed communications or economic releases Global Sentiment: Track international markets for risk appetite cues Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Environment: Return from holiday with potential catch-up volatility Primary Strategy: Trend continuation with careful gap management Volatility Expectation: Above normal due to holiday return dynamics Intraday Trading Strategy: Gap Scenarios: Gap Up: Above 45,600 suggests continued strength Gap Down: Below 45,500 may offer buying opportunity No Gap: Normal trading within established range Long Setup (Primary): 45,520-45,550 - Stop Loss: 45,480 - Target 1: 45,620 (1:2 R/R) - Target 2: 45,700 (1:3.5 R/R) Short Setup (Secondary): 45,680-45,720 - Stop Loss: 45,750 - Target 1: 45,600 (1:1 R/R) - Target 2: 45,520 (1:2.3 R/R) Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Environment: Mid-week momentum with potential economic data Primary Strategy: Breakout preparation with volume confirmation Focus: Fed speakers and economic indicators impact Trading Approach: Bullish Breakout: Above 45,750 with volume - Entry: 45,760-45,780 - Stop: 45,700 - Targets: 45,850, 45,950, 46,050 Range Trading: Within 45,500-45,700 - Long: 45,520-45,540, Target: 45,650-45,680 - Short: 45,670-45,690, Target: 45,550-45,580 Risk Considerations: Reduce position sizes if range-bound continues Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Environment: High-impact day with jobs data potential Primary Strategy: Economic data trading with technical confirmation Key Factor: Employment data ahead of Friday's NFP Economic Data Strategy: Strong Employment: May delay Fed cuts, potential negative Weak Employment: Supports Fed cut narrative, likely positive Mixed Data: Technical levels become primary focus Technical Breakout Setup: Major Breakout: Above 46,000 - Volume Required: 150% of 20-day average - Initial Target: 46,200-46,300 - Extended Target: 46,500-46,600 - Stop Loss: 45,850 Breakdown Scenario: Below 45,400 - Target: 45,200-45,100 - Extended: 45,000-44,900 - Stop Loss: 45,500 Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Environment: Non-Farm Payrolls day with weekly close focus Primary Strategy: News trading with weekly positioning Critical Importance: NFP data impact on Fed policy expectations NFP Trading Strategy: Strong NFP (>200K): - Potential negative for rate cut hopes - Technical resistance becomes more significant - Focus on short opportunities near 46,000 Weak NFP (<150K): - Strengthens rate cut case - Bullish breakout potential increases - Target 46,200-46,500 on strength In-Line NFP (150-200K): - Maintains current Fed expectations - Technical levels drive trading Weekly Close Analysis: Bullish Close: Above 45,700 sets up next week advance Neutral Close: 45,400-45,700 maintains current structure Bearish Close: Below 45,400 suggests correction risk Advanced Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Matrix Risk Allocation by Strategy: 5M Scalping: 0.3-0.5% of capital per trade 15M Scalping: 0.5-0.8% of capital per trade 1H Day Trading: 1-1.5% of capital per trade 4H Swing Trading: 2-3% of capital per trade Daily Position Trading: 3-4% of capital per trade Dynamic Stop Loss Framework Volatility-Based Stops: Current ATR: ~180 points daily average Low Volatility: Stops at 120-150 points Normal Volatility: Stops at 180-220 points High Volatility: Stops at 250-300 points Timeframe-Specific Stops: 5-Minute Charts: 60-80 points maximum 15-Minute Charts: 100-140 points maximum 1-Hour Charts: 180-250 points maximum 4-Hour Charts: 350-450 points maximum Daily Charts: 600-800 points maximum Profit-Taking Methodology Systematic Profit Distribution: Target 1 (40%): 1:1.5 Risk/Reward ratio Target 2 (35%): 1:2.5 Risk/Reward ratio Target 3 (25%): 1:4+ Risk/Reward ratio Trailing Stops: Implement after Target 2 achievement Portfolio Risk Controls Maximum Exposure Limits: Total Account Risk: 6% maximum across all positions Single Trade Risk: 4% maximum concentration Sector Concentration: 50% maximum in related trades Daily Loss Limit: 3% account drawdown triggers review Geopolitical and Economic Risk Assessment Federal Reserve Policy Implications September FOMC (17-18): High probability of 25bp cut based on Powell's signals Policy Trajectory: Market expectations for 2-3 cuts through Q4 2025 Communication Risk: Any hawkish surprises could trigger significant correction Independence Concerns: Trump administration pressure on Fed policy creates uncertainty Economic Data Dependencies Labor Market Dynamics: Powell's noted "unusual" behavior requires close monitoring Inflation Trajectory: Tariff impacts creating uncertainty for price stability GDP Resilience: Economy showing strength but policy impacts unclear Consumer Health: Holiday spending season critical for Q4 performance Political and Policy Risks Tariff Implementation: Broad tariff policies could spike inflation and delay cuts Trade Relations: China trade dynamics affecting multinational Dow components Fiscal Policy: Government spending and tax policies impacting corporate earnings Regulatory Environment: Industry-specific regulations affecting key sectors Global Economic Factors International Growth: Global slowdown impacts for multinational corporations Currency Dynamics: Dollar strength/weakness affecting overseas earnings Commodity Prices: Input cost inflation affecting manufacturing components Geopolitical Tensions: Regional conflicts creating safe-haven demand for US assets Sectoral Analysis and Dow Components Sector Weight Distribution Industrials (20%): Boeing, Caterpillar, 3M leading weight Financials (18%): Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, American Express Technology (15%): Microsoft, Apple, Intel Healthcare (12%): UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson, Merck Consumer (15%): Home Depot, McDonald's, Nike Other (20%): Utilities, materials, energy components Rate Cut Beneficiaries High Sensitivity Sectors: 1. Financials: Yield curve steepening benefits net interest margins 2. Real Estate (REITs): Lower rates increase property valuations 3. Utilities: Bond proxy sectors benefit from rate environment 4. Consumer Discretionary: Lower borrowing costs boost spending Potential Underperformers Rate Cut Challenges: 1. Insurance: Lower investment yields pressure profitability 2. Banks: Net interest margin compression risks 3. Dollar-Sensitive: Strong international exposure may face currency headwinds Component-Specific Analysis Key Drivers: Boeing: Recovery story and rate environment benefits Goldman Sachs: Trading revenue and investment banking activity Home Depot: Housing sector sensitivity to interest rates Apple: Consumer spending and international exposure Advanced Technical Patterns and Setups Ichimoku Advanced Strategies Cloud Breakout Setup: - Price above cloud with expanding bands - Tenkan above Kijun with widening gap - Chikou Span clearing resistance - Volume confirmation on breakouts Kumo Twist Analysis: - Future cloud turning bullish through Q4 2025 - Cloud thickness indicating strong trend support - Senkou Span crossovers providing early signals Gann-Based Trading Systems Square of 9 Implementation: Long Trades: Buy at 212° (44,944) targeting 215° (46,225) Short Trades: Sell at 216° (46,656) targeting 213° (45,369) Breakout Trades: Above 215° targets 220° (48,400) Time and Price Confluence: - Major resistance at time/price squares - Natural reversal zones at geometric intersections - Seasonal time cycles confirming geometric levels Wyckoff Accumulation/Distribution Analysis Markup Phase Characteristics: Sign of Strength: Fed policy optimism driving advances Last Point of Support: 44,500 zone established Backup to Edge of Creek: Minimal selling pressure evident Secondary Test: Any pullback to 45,200 should hold Distribution Warning Signs: Climactic Volume: Heavy selling on any approach to 47,500 Weakness Signs: Inability to hold gains on positive news Phase A Risk: Sharp reversal from major resistance levels Market Microstructure and Execution High-Frequency Trading Impact Algorithm Concentration Zones: 45,000 Level: Major HFT support algorithm activity 46,000 Level: Significant resistance algorithm presence Round Numbers: Enhanced activity at 500-point intervals Optimal Execution Timing: 9:30-10:00 EST: Opening volatility and opportunity 10:30-11:00 EST: Post-opening continuation patterns 14:00-14:30 EST: European close overlap effects 15:30-16:00 EST: Final hour institutional positioning Liquidity Analysis High Liquidity Zones: 45,400-45,700 with tight bid/ask spreads Reduced Liquidity: Above 46,500 requiring careful position sizing After-Hours Considerations: Limited liquidity requiring smaller sizes Order Flow Characteristics Institutional Patterns: Accumulation Evidence: Large block buying 45,200-45,500 Distribution Monitoring: Watch for heavy selling above 46,200 Momentum Algorithms: Active participation on breakout moves Technology Integration and Trading Infrastructure Essential Trading Platforms 1. TradingView: Advanced Dow Jones charting and technical analysis 2. Interactive Brokers: Professional execution and margin capabilities 3. E*TRADE: Retail-friendly interface with advanced tools 4. Charles Schwab: Commission-free trading with research integration Critical Alert Configuration Price-Based Alerts: Breakout Levels: 45,750 (bullish), 45,400 (bearish) Psychological Levels: 46,000, 46,500, 47,000 Gann Squares: 44,944, 46,225, 46,656 Volume-Based Monitoring: Unusual Volume: >150% of 20-day average Block Trades: >$20M institutional transactions Index Rebalancing: Quarterly component changes News and Event Alerts: Fed Communications: FOMC members speeches and interviews Economic Releases: Employment, inflation, GDP data Component Earnings: Major Dow constituent results Policy Announcements: Trade, fiscal, regulatory changes Advanced Analysis Integration Options Market Analysis: Monitor Dow options for unusual activity and sentiment Futures Market Positioning: Track YM futures for institutional positioning ETF Flow Analysis: Monitor DIA and other Dow ETFs for flow patterns Cross-Market Correlation: Track relationships with bonds, commodities, currencies Calendar and Seasonal Considerations September Seasonality Historically challenging month for equities, though current Fed policy support may override seasonal weakness. Dow's defensive characteristics may provide relative outperformance during seasonal stress periods. Federal Reserve Timeline September 17-18: FOMC Meeting with high cut probability November 6-7: Next FOMC Meeting December 17-18: Final 2025 FOMC Meeting with year-end implications Earnings Calendar Impact Q3 2025 Reporting Season: October-November critical for Dow components Key Reporters: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Boeing, Apple reporting schedules Guidance Analysis: Management commentary on rate environment benefits Holiday and Event Calendar Labor Day (Sep 2): US markets closed Columbus Day (Oct 14): Bond markets closed, equity markets open Election Considerations: Political developments affecting policy expectations Year-End Positioning: Institutional rebalancing effects in Q4 Conclusion and Strategic Outlook The Dow Jones Industrial Average stands at a pivotal moment, benefiting from Fed Chair Powell's dovish pivot while trading at historically elevated levels. The index's composition of blue-chip, dividend-paying companies positions it well for a potential rate-cutting cycle, though elevated valuations require careful risk management. Strategic Investment Themes: 1. Fed Policy Tailwind: Rate cutting cycle benefiting rate-sensitive components 2. Value vs Growth: Dow's value orientation may outperform in rate cut environment 3. Dividend Aristocrats: Quality dividend payers attractive in lower rate environment 4. Economic Resilience: Defensive characteristics providing downside protection Trading Strategy Priorities: Trend Following: Primary bias remains bullish with Fed support Breakout Trading: Monitor 46,000 level for significant upside potential Risk Management: Elevated levels require disciplined position sizing Component Selection: Focus on rate-sensitive sectors for maximum benefit Medium-Term Outlook (3-6 months): Technical and fundamental analysis converges on a constructive outlook for the Dow through Q4 2025. The combination of Fed accommodation, resilient economic data, and strong corporate balance sheets supports advancement toward 47,000-48,000 targets, though any hawkish Fed surprises or geopolitical shocks could trigger corrections to 44,000-44,500 support. Risk Management Focus: Overbought Conditions: Monthly RSI above 74 suggests caution at higher levels Policy Risk: Fed policy error or hawkish surprise major downside risk Valuation Concerns: Historical high levels warrant selective positioning Correlation Risk: High correlation with broader market during stress periods Long-Term Strategic Considerations: The secular bull market remains intact, supported by American economic dynamism and corporate innovation. However, demographic trends, debt levels, and policy uncertainty create longer-term challenges requiring ongoing assessment and strategy adjustment. Traders and investors should maintain flexibility while capitalizing on the current favorable environment, with particular attention to the Fed policy trajectory and its impact on the interest rate-sensitive components that comprise significant portions of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. --- *This comprehensive analysis integrates multiple technical methodologies with current fundamental drivers affecting the Dow Jones Industrial Average. All recommendations should be implemented within individual risk tolerance parameters and adapted to evolving market conditions. The blue-chip nature of Dow components provides some defensive characteristics, though elevated levels require enhanced risk awareness.* --- For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade --- Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:US30
by sunya
NAS100 Technical Analysis Report - NASDAQ & US Market# NAS100 Technical Analysis: NASDAQ Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Executive Summary Current Price: 23,415.0 (August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Market Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish with Rate Cut Optimism Primary Trend: Uptrend with consolidation characteristics Key Catalyst: Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech signaling potential September rate cut The NASDAQ-100 continues to demonstrate resilience following Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish signals at Jackson Hole, with markets pricing in high probability of September rate cuts. The index benefits from renewed optimism in technology sectors and artificial intelligence themes, though elevated valuations warrant selective positioning. Market Context & Fundamental Backdrop Federal Reserve Policy Outlook Following Powell's Jackson Hole speech, markets have significantly increased bets on a September rate cut. The Fed Chair indicated that "conditions may warrant" interest rate cuts, with the balance of risks to employment and inflation shifting. Current federal funds rate remains at 4.25%-4.50%, but CME FedWatch Tool shows high probability of cuts beginning in September 2025. Economic Environment The US economy has shown resilience despite policy uncertainties, with the dual mandate of the Fed becoming more balanced. Labor market data shows some "unusual" behavior that could become concerning, supporting the case for monetary policy adjustment. Technology Sector Dynamics The artificial intelligence boom remains robust, providing fundamental support for NASDAQ constituents. However, chipmaker volatility has created intermittent pressure on the index, requiring careful sector rotation analysis. Market Performance Context Recent trading sessions have shown volatility, with the NASDAQ experiencing both significant gains and pullbacks. The index closed at 21,449.29 in late August trading sessions, demonstrating the current consolidation phase around elevated levels. Technical Analysis Framework Japanese Candlestick Analysis Weekly Pattern: Long-legged doji formation indicating indecision at current levels Daily Pattern: Inside bar sequences suggesting consolidation before next major move Intraday Patterns: Morning star and evening star formations frequent in 4H timeframe Volume Analysis: Average volume during recent consolidation phase Elliott Wave Analysis Primary Wave Structure: Major Degree: Wave 5 of secular bull market potentially in final stages Intermediate Degree: Subwave 5 of major Wave 5 showing extension characteristics Minor Degree: Currently in subwave 4 correction within intermediate Wave 5 Wave Count Analysis: Impulse Wave: Completed from 2020 lows to recent highs Corrective Phase: Current consolidation representing Wave 4 of larger structure Target Projection: Wave 5 completion targeting 25,000-26,000 zone Critical Levels: Wave 4 support at 22,800-23,200 maintains bullish count Harmonic Pattern Recognition Active Harmonic Structures: Bullish Cypher Pattern: Potential completion at 22,900-23,100 zone ABCD Extension: Current formation targeting 24,200-24,500 Potential Bearish Gartley: Formation risk above 24,800 indicating reversal Fibonacci Confluence Analysis: - 61.8% retracement of major swing: 23,150 - 50% retracement level: 23,400 (current area of interest) - 38.2% retracement: 23,650 - 1.618 extension target: 24,300-24,500 Wyckoff Method Analysis Phase Assessment: Accumulation Phase D - Testing resistance Market Structure: - Sign of Strength (SOS) evident on rate cut optimism - Last Point of Support (LPS) established around 23,000 - Backup to Edge of Creek (BUE) tests showing institutional accumulation - Spring action potentially completed in August lows Composite Operator Activity: Evidence of large player accumulation during recent weakness W.D. Gann Technical Analysis # Square of 9 Application Current Position: 23,415.0 = 152.98° on the Gann wheel Critical Resistance Levels: - 23,409 (153°) - immediate geometric resistance - 23,716 (154°) - intermediate resistance zone - 24,025 (155°) - major resistance confluence Key Support Levels: - 23,104 (152°) - immediate geometric support - 22,801 (151°) - strong support zone - 22,500 (150°) - major psychological and geometric support # Time Theory Application Critical Time Cycles: - September 3-6: 90-degree time angle from recent high - September 21: Autumn equinox - natural market turning point - October 12-15: 144-degree time cycle completion - November 2-8: 180-degree cycle from major low # Price and Time Squaring Analysis Square Root of Price: √23,415.0 = 152.98 Next Significant Square Levels: - 154² = 23,716 (key resistance zone) - 155² = 24,025 (intermediate target) - 156² = 24,336 (extended resistance) - 160² = 25,600 (long-term target) Support Square Levels: - 152² = 23,104 (immediate support) - 151² = 22,801 (strong support) - 150² = 22,500 (major support) # Gann Angle Analysis Primary Angles from Major Low: - 1x1 Angle: Providing dynamic support around 23,200 - 2x1 Angle: Resistance trend line near 23,800 - 1x2 Angle: Long-term support at 22,600 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Cloud Configuration: Tenkan-sen (9): 23,425 - Price slightly below, neutral bias Kijun-sen (26): 23,380 - Price above, mild bullish confirmation Senkou Span A: 23,402 (cloud top) Senkou Span B: 23,150 (cloud bottom) Chikou Span: Above price action 26 periods ago (bullish) Assessment: Price trading at cloud top resistance with mixed signals requiring breakout confirmation for directional clarity. Multi-Timeframe Technical Indicator Analysis 5-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) RSI(14): 51.3 - Neutral territory with slight bullish bias VWAP: 23,408 - Price oscillating around VWAP equilibrium Bollinger Bands: Middle band at 23,410, bands contracting (low volatility environment) Stochastic: 48.2 in neutral zone Volume: Below average, typical for consolidation phase Key Scalping Levels: Micro Resistance: 23,435, 23,460, 23,485 Micro Support: 23,390, 23,365, 23,340 15-Minute Chart (Scalping Focus) MACD: Histogram near zero line, momentum neutral Williams %R: -52% indicating no extreme conditions Moving Averages: EMA(20) converging with SMA(20) around 23,400 Volume Profile: High volume node at 23,380-23,430 Scalping Strategy Levels: Long Bias Zone: 23,385-23,405 Short Bias Zone: 23,445-23,465 Breakout Alerts: Above 23,480 (bullish) / Below 23,360 (bearish) 1-Hour Chart (Day Trading) RSI(14): 54.7 - Slight bullish momentum without overbought conditions VWAP: 23,395 providing dynamic support ADX(14): 28.3 indicating moderate trend strength Parabolic SAR: Below price at 23,350 (bullish signal) Day Trading Framework: Primary Resistance: 23,500-23,550 Secondary Resistance: 23,650-23,700 Primary Support: 23,250-23,300 Secondary Support: 23,100-23,150 4-Hour Chart (Swing Trading) RSI(14): 58.9 in bullish territory but not overbought MACD: Positive momentum with slight bullish divergence forming Bollinger Bands: Price near upper band, expansion needed for continuation Ichimoku: Price at cloud resistance requiring break for bullish confirmation Swing Trading Levels: Key Resistance Zone: 23,700-23,800 Breakout Target: 24,000-24,200 on sustained break Support Structure: 23,200-23,300 Stop Loss Consideration: Below 23,100 invalidates bullish structure Daily Chart (Position Trading) RSI(14): 61.4 showing healthy bullish momentum MACD: Positive with momentum building Volume: Consolidation pattern with average participation Moving Averages: All major MAs (20, 50, 100, 200) aligned bullishly Position Trading Analysis: Triangle Pattern: Ascending triangle formation approaching apex Breakout Targets: 24,500-25,000 on upside resolution Support Defense: 23,000-23,200 critical for trend continuation Time Factor: Resolution expected within 2-3 weeks Weekly Chart (Long-term Analysis) RSI(14): 65.8 approaching overbought but sustainable MACD: Strong positive momentum with room for extension Long-term Trend: Powerful uptrend since 2020 lows intact Major Resistance: 25,000-25,500 psychological zone Monthly Chart (Strategic View) RSI(14): 71.2 significantly overbought (caution warranted) Long-term Structure: Multi-year cup and handle completion Secular Target: 28,000-30,000 based on pattern measurement Major Support: 20,000-21,000 long-term trend support Comprehensive Support and Resistance Analysis Primary Support Structure 1. 23,380-23,420: Kijun-sen and VWAP confluence (immediate) 2. 23,300-23,350: Previous consolidation zone with volume 3. 23,200-23,250: Triangle support and trend line confluence 4. 23,100-23,150: Cloud bottom and Fibonacci support 5. 23,000-23,050: Major psychological level and institutional interest 6. 22,800-22,900: Elliott Wave 4 support and harmonic completion 7. 22,500-22,600: Extended support and Gann square level Primary Resistance Structure 1. 23,450-23,480: Immediate intraday resistance 2. 23,550-23,600: Short-term resistance and previous reaction high 3. 23,700-23,750: Triangle resistance and Gann confluence 4. 23,900-24,000: Intermediate resistance and psychological level 5. 24,200-24,300: Major resistance zone and measured targets 6. 24,500-24,700: Extended targets and harmonic projections 7. 25,000-25,200: Major psychological resistance and long-term targets Weekly Trading Strategy (September 2-6, 2025) Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - US Markets Closed) Market Environment: Limited trading due to US holiday Strategy Focus: Pre-positioning for Tuesday's resumed activity International Markets: Monitor for any overnight developments Pre-Market Analysis: Gap Scenarios: Assess any gap formation from Friday's close Global Sentiment: Monitor Asian and European markets for cues News Flow: Fed speakers or economic data releases Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Environment: Resumption of full trading after holiday Primary Strategy: Range trading with breakout preparation Volatility Expectation: Above average due to holiday catch-up Intraday Trading Strategy: Opening Range: 23,350-23,480 expected Long Setup: 23,380-23,400 - Stop Loss: 23,350 - Target 1: 23,450 (1:2 R/R) - Target 2: 23,500 (1:3.5 R/R) Short Setup: 23,460-23,480 - Stop Loss: 23,510 - Target 1: 23,400 (1:1.2 R/R) - Target 2: 23,350 (1:2.2 R/R) Key Levels to Watch: Breakout Above: 23,500 targets 23,600-23,650 Breakdown Below: 23,320 targets 23,250-23,200 Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Environment: Mid-week momentum potential Primary Strategy: Trend following with momentum confirmation Focus: Economic data and Fed speakers impact Trading Approach: Bullish Scenario: Break above 23,500 with volume - Entry: 23,510-23,530 - Stop: 23,450 - Targets: 23,600, 23,700, 23,800 Bearish Scenario: Break below 23,300 with momentum - Entry: 23,290-23,270 - Stop: 23,330 - Targets: 23,200, 23,100, 23,000 Risk Management: Reduce position sizes by 30% if range-bound continues Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Environment: Potential high-volatility day Primary Strategy: Breakout trading with volume confirmation Critical Factor: Triangle pattern resolution expected Triangle Breakout Strategy: Upside Breakout: Above 23,650 - Volume Requirement: 150% of 20-day average - Initial Target: 23,800-23,850 - Extended Target: 24,000-24,200 - Stop Loss: 23,550 Downside Breakdown: Below 23,200 - Volume Requirement: 130% of 20-day average - Initial Target: 23,000-22,950 - Extended Target: 22,800-22,700 - Stop Loss: 23,280 Position Management: - Scale into positions on confirmed breakouts - Trail stops aggressively after first target achieved - Monitor sector rotation for continuation signals Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Environment: Week-end positioning and profit-taking Primary Strategy: Consolidation trading and weekly close analysis Focus: Jobs data potential and weekly settlement End-of-Week Strategy: Weekly Close Bullish: Above 23,500 sets up next week advance Weekly Close Neutral: 23,300-23,500 maintains current pattern Weekly Close Bearish: Below 23,300 suggests pattern failure Day Trading Approach: Morning Session: Follow Thursday's breakout direction Midday: Range trading within established boundaries Final Hour: Position adjustments for weekend risk Non-Farm Payrolls Impact: Strong Data: Could delay Fed cuts, potential market negative Weak Data: Supports Fed cut narrative, likely market positive In-Line Data: Maintains current rate cut expectations Advanced Risk Management Framework Position Sizing Matrix Risk Allocation by Timeframe: 5M Scalping: 0.25-0.5% of capital per trade 15M Scalping: 0.5-0.75% of capital per trade 1H Day Trading: 1-1.5% of capital per trade 4H Swing Trading: 1.5-2.5% of capital per trade Daily Position Trading: 2.5-3.5% of capital per trade Dynamic Stop Loss Framework Volatility-Adjusted Stops: Low Volatility (<1% ATR): Stops at 0.75% of entry Medium Volatility (1-2% ATR): Stops at 1.25% of entry High Volatility (>2% ATR): Stops at 2% of entry Timeframe-Specific Stops: 5-Minute Charts: 40-60 points maximum 15-Minute Charts: 80-120 points maximum 1-Hour Charts: 150-250 points maximum 4-Hour Charts: 300-450 points maximum Daily Charts: 600-900 points maximum Profit-Taking Methodology Systematic Profit Realization: First Target (40%): 1:1.5 Risk/Reward ratio Second Target (35%): 1:2.5 Risk/Reward ratio Third Target (25%): 1:4+ Risk/Reward ratio Trailing Implementation: After second target achievement Maximum Exposure Limits Daily Risk Limits: Total Portfolio: Maximum 5% risk across all positions Single Strategy: Maximum 3% risk concentration Sector Concentration: Maximum 40% in tech-related trades Emergency Stop: -2% daily account drawdown triggers cessation Geopolitical and Economic Risk Assessment Federal Reserve Policy Impact September FOMC Meeting: High probability of 25bp rate cut based on recent communications Policy Path: Markets pricing 2-3 cuts through end of 2025 Communication Risk: Any hawkish surprises could trigger sharp correction Independence Concerns: Political pressure on Fed policy creates uncertainty Economic Data Dependencies Labor Market: "Unusual" behavior noted by Powell requires monitoring Inflation Trends: Sticky services inflation remains concern GDP Growth: Resilience continues but tariff impacts uncertain Consumer Spending: Holiday season performance critical for Q4 Geopolitical Considerations Trade Policy: Tariff implementation timeline and magnitude China Relations: Technology sector exposure to policy changes Energy Security: Minimal direct impact on NASDAQ constituents Dollar Dynamics: Strength/weakness affecting multinational earnings Technology Sector Risks AI Regulation: Potential oversight affecting major constituents Semiconductor Cycle: Global chip demand and supply chain risks Cybersecurity: Increasing threat landscape affecting valuations Competition: Antitrust scrutiny on major tech platforms Sectoral Analysis and Rotation Themes NASDAQ 100 Sector Breakdown Technology (45%): Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Meta driving performance Communication Services (15%): Google, Netflix, streaming platforms Consumer Discretionary (12%): Amazon, Tesla leading components Healthcare (8%): Biotech and medical device innovation Other Sectors (20%): Diversified exposure across growth themes Current Outperformers 1. Artificial Intelligence: NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google benefiting from AI boom 2. Cloud Computing: Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure expansion 3. Digital Advertising: Meta, Google capturing online spending shift 4. Electric Vehicles: Tesla maintaining technological leadership Underperforming Areas 1. Traditional Software: Legacy platforms facing cloud migration pressure 2. Hardware Manufacturers: Margin pressure from supply chain costs 3. Streaming Services: Subscriber growth saturation concerns 4. Biotech: Regulatory approval timelines creating uncertainty Rotation Indicators Growth vs Value: Quality growth at reasonable prices favored Large Cap vs Small Cap: Mega-cap technology leadership maintained Secular vs Cyclical: Long-term secular themes outperforming cycles Advanced Pattern Recognition and Trading Setups Ichimoku-Based Strategies Cloud Breakout Setup: Bullish Signal: Price above cloud with Tenkan above Kijun Entry: Break above 23,450 with volume confirmation Stop: Below cloud at 23,150 Target: Measured move to 24,200-24,500 Kijun-sen Bounce: Setup: Price return to Kijun-sen (23,380) with support Entry: Bounce confirmation above 23,400 Stop: Below 23,350 Target: Previous high resistance at 23,650 Gann-Based Trading Approaches Square of 9 Methodology: Long Trades: Buy at 152° (23,104) targeting 154° (23,716) Short Trades: Sell at 154° (23,716) targeting 152° (23,104) Breakout Trades: Above 154° targets 155° (24,025) Time Cycle Trading: Major Turns: September 21 equinox reversal window Minor Cycles: 90-degree angles creating intraweek pivots Momentum Confirmation: Volume spikes during cycle completions Wyckoff Accumulation/Distribution Phase D Characteristics: Testing Supply: Price probing resistance without heavy volume Institutional Activity: Large lot accumulation on weakness Markup Preparation: Successful tests lead to significant advances Distribution Warning Signs: Climactic Volume: Heavy selling on any approach to 25,000 Weakness Signs: Unable to hold gains on good news Phase A Risk: Sharp reversal from resistance levels Market Microstructure and Execution Considerations High-Frequency Trading Impact Algorithm Activity Zones: 23,000 Level: Heavy HFT support algorithm activity 23,500 Level: Resistance algorithm concentration 24,000 Level: Major psychological algorithm participation Optimal Execution Windows: 9:30-10:00 EST: Maximum volatility and opportunity 11:00-11:30 EST: Mid-morning momentum continuation 14:30-15:00 EST: European close overlap activity 15:30-16:00 EST: Final hour positioning Liquidity Considerations High Liquidity Zones: 23,300-23,500 range with tight spreads Reduced Liquidity: Above 24,000 and below 23,000 requiring careful sizing After-Hours Trading: Limited liquidity requiring smaller position sizes Order Flow Analysis Institutional Patterns: Accumulation: Evidence of large block buying 23,200-23,400 Distribution Zones: Monitor for heavy selling above 23,700 Momentum Algorithms: Active participation on breakout moves Technology Integration and Trading Tools Essential Trading Platforms 1. TradingView: Comprehensive charting with advanced indicators 2. Think or Swim: Professional-grade execution and analysis 3. Interactive Brokers: Direct market access and low commissions 4. Bloomberg Terminal: Institutional-grade data and news flow Critical Alert Systems Price-Based Alerts: - Triangle breakout: 23,650 (bullish) / 23,200 (bearish) - Psychological levels: 23,500, 24,000, 24,500 - Gann squares: 23,104, 23,716, 24,025 Volume-Based Alerts: - Unusual volume spikes (>200% of 20-day average) - Block trade notifications (>$10M trades) - Dark pool activity indicators News and Event Alerts: - Fed speaker comments and policy communications - Economic data releases (employment, inflation, GDP) - Earnings announcements from major NASDAQ constituents - Geopolitical developments affecting technology sector Advanced Analysis Tools Options Flow: Monitor unusual options activity for directional clues Futures Positioning: Track institutional positioning in NQ futures Sector Rotation: Monitor NASDAQ sector ETF performance relative to index International Correlation: Track correlation with technology indices globally Seasonal and Calendar Considerations September Seasonality Historical data shows September as traditionally weak month for equities, though technology sectors often show resilience. Current rate cut optimism may override seasonal weakness. Federal Reserve Calendar September 17-18: FOMC Meeting (high probability of rate cut) October 29-30: Next FOMC Meeting December 17-18: Final 2025 FOMC Meeting Earnings Season Timeline Q3 2025 Reporting: October-November period critical for NASDAQ constituents Key Companies: Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google, Amazon reporting impact Guidance Focus: AI spending, cloud growth, consumer demand trends Holiday Impact Calendar Labor Day (Sep 2): US markets closed Columbus Day (Oct 14): Bond markets closed, equities open Thanksgiving (Nov 27-28): Shortened trading sessions Christmas/New Year: Year-end positioning effects Conclusion and Strategic Outlook The NASDAQ-100 stands at a critical inflection point, benefiting from Fed Chair Powell's dovish pivot while facing elevated valuation concerns and seasonal headwinds. The technical picture presents a compelling consolidation pattern with multiple breakout scenarios, requiring careful risk management and tactical positioning. Key Investment Themes for September: 1. Fed Policy Pivot: Rate cut cycle beginning supports risk assets and growth stocks 2. AI Revolution Continuation: Technology leadership themes remain intact 3. Triangle Resolution: Current consolidation pattern approaching decision point 4. Seasonal Navigation: September weakness vs. Fed optimism dynamic Tactical Trading Priorities: Range Trading: Capitalize on 23,300-23,650 range until breakout Breakout Preparation: Position for triangle resolution with volume confirmation Risk Management: Elevated levels require disciplined position sizing Sector Selection: Focus on AI beneficiaries and Fed-sensitive growth names Medium-Term Outlook (1-3 Months): The combination of Fed policy accommodation, robust AI/technology themes, and strong corporate fundamentals provides a constructive backdrop for NASDAQ advancement. Technical analysis suggests potential for significant upside toward 24,500-25,000 on successful breakout, though any hawkish Fed surprise or geopolitical shock could trigger sharp corrections. Risk Scenario Analysis: Bull Case: Fed cuts + AI momentum = targets 25,000-26,000 Base Case: Consolidation 23,000-24,000 through October Bear Case: Fed disappointment + valuation concerns = correction to 21,500-22,000 Strategic Positioning Recommendations: 1. Maintain tactical long bias with disciplined risk management 2. Focus on high-quality technology leaders with AI exposure 3. Prepare for increased volatility around Fed meetings and earnings 4. Monitor triangle pattern resolution for significant directional moves The multi-timeframe technical analysis framework presented provides robust tools for navigating the current market environment. Success will depend on maintaining discipline around the identified support/resistance levels while adapting to the evolving Fed policy landscape and technology sector dynamics. Traders should remain flexible and prepared for both continuation and reversal scenarios, with particular attention to volume confirmation on any major breakout attempts. The convergence of technical patterns, fundamental catalysts, and seasonal factors creates a complex but opportunity-rich environment for skilled practitioners. --- *This comprehensive analysis integrates multiple technical methodologies with current market fundamentals. All trading recommendations should be implemented within individual risk tolerance parameters and adapted to evolving market conditions. The technology-focused nature of the NASDAQ requires particular attention to sector-specific developments and regulatory considerations.* --- For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade --- Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by sunya
BTC – Fakeout Before the Big Breakout!Bitcoin has been repeating a familiar pattern: - Fakeouts below key support zones, trapping early sellers. - Breakouts back above structure, followed by strong impulsive moves. We’ve already seen this sequence twice in the past months, and BTC might be setting up for it once again. Price faked out below support, reclaimed it, and is now eyeing a breakout from the falling channel. 🔁If history rhymes, the next leg could trigger a powerful impulse toward new highs. Traders should keep an eye on the $112,000–$114,000 zone — a breakout from here could be the spark for the next rally. Is BTC about to repeat its playbook? 👀 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
19
Is Gold Losing Its Luster or Preparing to Shine Again?XAUUSD has been respecting a broad ascending channel for months, with clear touches on both resistance and support levels. Recently, however, price slipped into a smaller bearish channel inside the larger structure. 📉 The short-term bias remains bearish as long as price trades within the red channel. 📊 Key support lies near the $3,280 zone — a critical level where bulls might attempt to step in. 💡 A breakout from the bearish channel could open the way for another retest of the upper resistance zone, while failure to hold support may trigger deeper corrections. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
4
USDOLLAR H4 | Bearish reversal off 50% Fibonacci resistanceBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price rise to the sell entry, which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to the take profit. Sell entry is at 12,738.37, which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 12,786.05, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 12,682.74, which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:USDOLLARShort
by Tradu
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot, which acts as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 98.27 1st Support: 94.66 1st Support: 94.66Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by IC Markets
Potential bearish drop?USDX is rising towards the resistance, which is a pullback resistance, and could drop from this level to our take-profit. Entry: 97.89 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Stop loss: 98.78 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Take profit: 97.92 Why we like it: There is a swing low support. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USDXShort
by Vantage