NAS100 - Stock Market, Waiting for a Decisive Week?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour time frame and is in its long-term ascending channel. As long as the Nasdaq is in its range, you can be a seller at the top of the range and a buyer at the bottom. If this range is broken, you can look for new trends in the Nasdaq.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2025 will be released on Friday, October 24 at 8:30 a.m. New York time (4:00 p.m. Tehran time). This release comes as most other economic data have been delayed due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has suspended normal operations.
The CPI report is particularly important for the U.S. Social Security Administration, as it serves as the basis for calculating annual adjustments to retirement benefits and other statutory payments.
In a statement released on Friday, the agency confirmed that it would temporarily recall a limited number of furloughed employees to ensure the timely publication of the CPI report. Originally scheduled for October 15, the release has now been rescheduled for October 24.
This CPI release will be among the few remaining economic datasets published by federal agencies during the shutdown. Since October 1, most data-producing institutions have ceased operations amid political deadlock between Democrats and Republicans that has halted large portions of federal services.
With the federal shutdown continuing, U.S. markets are increasingly relying on private-sector data to gauge the state of the economy. In the upcoming week, indicators such as housing sales and private manufacturing surveys will be released, serving as alternative references for traders and analysts.
Without access to official government data, investors, businesses, and consumers face a heightened level of uncertainty, making it difficult to plan for spending, hiring, and saving decisions.
The CPI report could play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, as the FOMC will have access to the data ahead of its October 28–29 policy meeting. Fed officials are currently debating whether to cut interest rates further, and if so, how quickly.
In September, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate to support a weakening labor market by reducing borrowing costs across short-term loans. Another rate cut is widely expected in October, though elevated inflation could slow or prevent further easing.
The Chief Financial Officer of Bank of America (BOFA) stated that the bank expects two additional rate cuts by the Fed before the end of this year.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently warned about downside risks to the labor market, sparking speculation that he might have had early access to the yet-unreleased September employment report. However, a closer examination of his remarks shows no confirmation or denial of such access.
The key takeaway from Powell’s speech was his firm reaffirmation of market expectations for a rate cut later this month, delivered without any sign of hesitation or opposition — a clear and confident signal to investors.
In another commentary, Bank of America highlighted that the current boom in AI data centers is fundamentally different from the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s. The bank attributed today’s expansion to strong semiconductor utilization, healthy cash flows, lower valuations, and a more favorable interest rate environment.
Nonetheless, it acknowledged ongoing concerns about excessive spending and stretched valuations in certain AI sectors.
Finally, the October Bank of America investor survey revealed that recession fears have fallen to their lowest level since February 2022, while optimism about economic growth has seen its strongest jump since 2020:
• 33% expect a “no-landing” scenario (up from 18%)
• 54% foresee a “soft landing” (down from 67%)
• 8% anticipate a “hard landing” (down from 10%).
