QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook – Week 23 of 2026 (08-12 JUN)QQQ / NDX Weekly Outlook
Last Week's Recap
As outlined in Long Scenario 1, QQQ retested Key Level 1 at 736.5 immediately after Monday's market open and found support exactly as planned.
We entered the trade and price rallied approximately 12.6 points from our entry zone.
Following the plan, we began taking profits Monday afternoon and continued scaling out throughout Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday, the Risk Index oscillator started generating bearish signals, which led us to close the remaining position and lock in profits.
1 trade. 1 win.
(Reference chart from last week's post is shared on the right)
UA CAPITAL Market Recap
While the broader market broke down sharply and declined roughly 4% by the end of Week 22, we avoided the drawdown entirely. In fact, all of the long positions we entered on Monday had already been closed deep in profit by Wednesday.
On Wednesday, the Risk Index started signaling an elevated probability of a sharp retracement. Because of that, we immediately notified members through the chat and closed all remaining runner call positions.
In Wednesday's Premium Market Update, I also published updated bounce zones. Price reacted from those updated levels almost exactly as expected.
However, the Risk Index continued to show extremely bearish positioning and remained persistent in warning about a larger retracement risk. It became clear that Thursday's bounce was actually a bull trap designed to create favorable conditions for market makers to accumulate puts and establish short exposure at higher prices. The Risk Index oscillator had already identified that shift on Wednesday.
The decline that began during Friday's premarket session accelerated after the Employment data came in significantly stronger than expected. The key takeaway is that the market was already vulnerable and likely heading lower. The data simply provided the catalyst.
The Nasdaq eventually dropped nearly 5%, creating one of the sharpest selloffs seen in recent months. The last comparable decline was on October 10, 2025.
In the Weekly Market Outlook published on Monday, four days before the selloff, I specifically mentioned that I was watching for a move similar to October 10, 2025. Four days later, the market delivered a decline that looked remarkably similar to that event.
By then, we had already exited our long positions with substantial profits earlier in the week. In addition, several members also opened put positions and successfully participated in the downside move.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
The Risk Index oscillator is currently showing a cautious risk on bounce setup.
This indicator analyzes macro market conditions and converts them into a technical risk assessment model. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL. It is the first indicator I check before making any short term or long term trading decision.
Previously, I performed these risk calculations manually. Today, the entire process is automated through the Risk Index, allowing us to save significant time while maintaining consistency.
The Risk Index suggests that a bullish bounce remains possible. However, it is still warning that the market could experience additional aggressive selling pressure.
In this type of environment, the highest probability approach is usually buying reactions from key levels and taking profits quickly rather than holding large runner positions.
Because both the daily and weekly structures remain bullish overall, I am not interested in shorting the market at the moment.
I will continue looking for long opportunities from key levels only.
Long Scenarios
We currently have two potential bounce zones where I expect price to react.
Long Scenario 1:
KEY Level 1 (696.5) This is the first major bounce level I am watching. If price reacts from this area, call options can be used to position long.
Targets:
706 → 715 → 723 → 732 → 743
Long Scenario 2:
KEY Level 2 (677) This is the second major bounce zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to position long.
Targets:
688 → 696.5 → 706 → 715 → 723 → 732
Premium Tip
Price can briefly trade below these bounce zones and create a deviation before reclaiming the level and closing back above it.
Because of that, aggressive entries can be taken after an hourly candle closes back above the level, but position size should remain small due to the additional risk.
The primary confirmation remains the daily close.
A practical approach is to enter call options near the daily close once it becomes clear that price will finish the session back above the level.
Position Management Rules
1. Take profits in stages because market direction can change very quickly in this environment.
2. After the first profit target is reached, move the stop loss on all remaining contracts to breakeven and turn the trade into a risk free position.
3. Always wait for a reaction from the level. We do not predict price. We react to price.
4. A daily close below the expected bounce zone = stop loss.
If you want to follow the same macro framework and gain direct access to the Risk Index indicator in real time, join the UACAPITAL Substack community.
I share deeper US Market breakdowns on Substack, including daily SPY and QQQ analysis, broader market coverage, real time position updates, educational content, and live risk analysis reports. Link is in my profile.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
