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FEAM — 5E ADVANCED MATERIALS. August 27, 2025.NASDAQ:FEAM #FEAM — 5E ADVANCED MATERIALS (NASDAQ:FEAM) Insider Purchase Analysis | Basic Materials | Specialty Chemicals | USA | NASDAQ | August 27, 2025. Overview: This report examines the recent insider purchases of FEAM shares on August 25, 2025, in the context of the company's operational focus on boron and lithium production. FEAM, a critical minerals developer with assets in California, has faced significant share price depreciation amid market challenges in the lithium sector. The insider activity, coupled with a concurrent public offering, signals potential confidence in near-term catalysts. We provide a comprehensive analysis for institutional consideration. 1. Insider Trading Context Buyers and Transaction Details: On August 25, 2025, BEP Special Situations IV LLC (a director-affiliated entity) purchased 100,000 shares at $3.50 per share, increasing its holdings to 7,597,349 shares. Similarly, Ascend Global Investment Fund SPC - Strategic Segregated Portfolio (potentially related) acquired 100,000 shares at the same price, bringing combined indirect beneficial ownership to 7,830,646 shares. Additionally, CEO Paul Weibel III bought 1,628 shares, and CFO Joshua Malm purchased 1,425 shares, both at $3.50. These transactions coincide with the closing of an $8.31 million public offering of common stock at $3.50 per share, raising capital for operational advancements. Size and Significance: The director/fund purchases represent the bulk of the activity, totaling ~$350,000 per entity, while executive buys are smaller (~$5,000–$6,000 each). Insider ownership stands at 79.00%, with recent transactions boosting it by 1.16%. Top holders include Bluescape Energy Partners LLC (37.45% of outstanding shares). Bullish Signal Interpretation: Insider buys at depressed prices, especially amid a capital raise, often indicate confidence in undervaluation or upcoming catalysts. This aligns with FEAM's focus on boron (stable pricing at ~$757/MT in the U.S.) and lithium (recovering demand from EVs). The stock rose 7.82% on August 26, 2025, post-announcement, suggesting market recognition of this vote of confidence. High insider ownership (79%) reduces agency risks and aligns interests with shareholders. Charts: • (1D) • (5D) • (1H) Insider Trades: FEAM Ownership: SEC From 4: www.sec.gov www.sec.gov 2. Technical Analysis Chart Overview (1-Year View): FEAM has been in a prolonged downtrend since September 2024, declining from ~$24 to $4.20 by August 2025, reflecting sector pressures. A sharp drop in December 2024 (from $20 to $10) marked a breakdown below key support, followed by consolidation around $4–$6. The descending trendline (purple) connects highs from October 2024 onward, acting as resistance. Moving averages show bearish alignment: SMA20 ($3.57), SMA50 ($3.92), SMA200 ($6.34). Volume trends indicate spikes during sell-offs (e.g., December 2024, March 2025), with recent August 2025 volume elevated on the offering news. Chart Overview (1-Month View): Short-term volatility is evident, with a bounce from $3.50 lows in late June to $5.00 highs in mid-August, followed by a pullback to $3.42. Candlestick patterns include a bullish engulfing on August 7–11 (green candles with volume spike), but recent red candles suggest profit-taking. RSI (14) at 38.40 indicates approaching oversold territory, potentially signaling a reversal if buying momentum builds. Key Levels and Indicators: • Support: $3.00 (psychological floor, recent lows), $2.82 (52-week low). • Resistance: $4.00 (near-term), $5.00 (mid-August high), $6.00 (SMA200 convergence). • Trendlines: Bearish descending channel intact; a break above $4.00 could invalidate. • RSI/MACD: RSI neutral-to-oversold (38.40); MACD not shown but implied convergence on pullback suggests potential bullish crossover if volume supports. • Volume and Patterns: Average volume 35K; recent spikes (e.g., 131K on August 27) correlate with news. No clear reversal patterns yet, but insider buys at $3.50 may establish a base. ➖➖➖ 3. News & Fundamental Drivers ➖ Latest News: On August 25, 2025, FEAM closed an $8.31 million public offering to fund project development, including its Fort Cady boron-lithium project. An updated technical report was released on August 12, 2025, highlighting resource estimates. The company presented at the Sidoti Micro-Cap Conference on May 22, 2025. ➖ Earnings Reports: Fiscal Q3 2025 (ended March 31, 2025, reported May 15, 2025) showed EPS of -$1.68, missing estimates of -$1.31 by $0.37. TTM EPS stands at -$16.11, with no sales reported (pre-commercial stage). ROA -44.56%, ROE -82.77%, reflecting development-phase losses. Next earnings expected September 8, 2025. ➖ Sector Outlook: The boron market is projected to grow from $3.63B in 2025 at >4% CAGR, driven by glass, ceramics, and agriculture demand. Lithium supply currently outpaces demand, stabilizing prices in 2025, but EV battery growth forecasts >400 GWh demand by year-end, with potential shortages ahead. Catalysts include U.S. tariffs on imports, FEAM's domestic production advantages, and project milestones (e.g., commercial boron output). ➖➖➖ 4. Trade Setup & Forecast Replicating Insider Trade: Assuming entry mirroring insiders at ~$3.50 (current price $3.42 offers a slight discount). Entry Price: $3.42–$3.50. Price Targets: ➡️ Short-term (1–3 months): $4.50 (break above resistance, +31.6%). ➡️ Mid-term (3–6 months): $6.00 (SMA200 test, +75.4%). ➡️ Long-term (6–12 months): $10.00 (channel breakout, +192.4%). We recommend a Strong Buy with 25–35% potential upside over the next 6 months, targeting $4.50–$4.75 on project milestones. Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
NASDAQ:FEAMLong
by SergioRichi
BFLY — Butterfly Network Inc. | August 27, 2025.NYSE:BFLY #BFLY — Butterfly Network Inc. (NYSE:BFLY) | Healthcare | Medical Devices | USA | NYSE | August 27, 2025. Executive Summary Butterfly Network Inc. (NYSE: BFLY), an innovative medical device company specializing in portable ultrasound technology, exhibits strong insider conviction through a recent purchase by Chief Business Officer Steve Cashman. On August 25, 2025, Cashman acquired 50,000 shares of Class A common stock at an average price of $1.64 per share, totaling $81,953 in value. This transaction, disclosed via SEC Form 4 on August 27, 2025, increased his direct holdings to 2,324,474 shares, representing a significant vote of confidence in the company's trajectory amid a challenging market environment. Technical indicators on the daily chart suggest a potential reversal from a prolonged downtrend, with the stock trading at oversold levels and showing early signs of stabilization near $1.57. Q2 2025 financials reported record revenue of $23.4 million (up 9% YoY), with net losses narrowing by 59%, bolstered by cost efficiencies and AI-driven product enhancements. Recent news highlights include a new distribution agreement with Clipper Distributing for veterinary applications (August 25, 2025) and participation in an AI-assisted POCUS research project for tuberculosis detection in Sub-Saharan Africa (August 19, 2025), underscoring growth in both human and animal health sectors. Replicating Cashman's buy at approximately $1.64 presents a high probability of profitability, with estimated upside potential of 50-200% over the next 6-12 months, targeting $2.50-$5.00. This is supported by Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and analyst projections of 124-127% upside. We recommend a speculative long position with tight risk controls, allocating 1-2% of portfolio capital, given the asymmetric reward in the medtech space. Company Profile Butterfly Network Inc. (BFLY) is a Burlington, Massachusetts-based healthcare technology firm revolutionizing medical imaging through its handheld, AI-enabled ultrasound devices. The flagship product, the Butterfly iQ+ probe, integrates semiconductor technology with cloud-based software to provide affordable, portable point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) solutions for clinicians worldwide. The company operates in the medical devices sector, targeting applications in cardiology, emergency medicine, and now veterinary care, with a focus on democratizing access to diagnostic imaging in underserved markets. Key financial metrics as of August 27, 2025: • Market Capitalization: $395.24 million • Enterprise Value: $268.75 million (approx.) • Price-to-Sales (TTM): 4.52 • Price-to-Book (MRQ): 1.69 BFLY's business model emphasizes subscription-based software and AI integrations, with recent expansions into veterinary and global health initiatives driving revenue diversification. The company reported a cash position enabling continued R&D investment, though profitability remains elusive amid scaling efforts. Charts: • (1D) • (5D) Steve Cashman (Insider), Insider Trades: BFLY Ownership: SEC From 4: www.sec.gov Insider Activity Analysis Insider purchases, particularly by C-suite executives, often signal undervaluation and internal optimism about future catalysts. For BFLY, CBO Steve Cashman's August 25, 2025, acquisition of 50,000 shares at $1.64 per share is noteworthy, as it occurs near 52-week lows and follows a pattern of net insider buying. Post-transaction, Cashman's direct ownership stands at 2,324,474 shares, reflecting a substantial personal stake aligned with shareholders. Broader insider trends show mixed activity: While insiders sold approximately $1.6 million in stock over the past year, recent months have tilted toward buys, including this transaction. No other major executive purchases were reported in August 2025, but the absence of sales post-Q2 earnings suggests stabilizing sentiment. This aligns with historical data where clustered buys in medtech firms precede 20-50% rebounds within quarters, especially when tied to product launches or partnerships. Technical Analysis The daily chart for BFLY depicts a pronounced downtrend since peaking above $5.00 in early 2025, with the price eroding over 60% to current levels around $1.57 amid broader healthcare sector pressures. Price action forms a descending wedge pattern, characterized by lower highs and lows, trading below key simple moving averages (20-day SMA at $1.74, 50-day at $2.50, 200-day at $2.81), confirming bearish momentum. However, recent sessions exhibit green candles with modest volume spikes (e.g., 1.44M shares on August 27), hinting at accumulation. Key indicators bolster a high-probability reversal case: • Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14-period): At 49.65 on the primary chart (neutral) and 38.75 on the secondary (approaching oversold <30), signaling potential exhaustion without bearish divergence. • Volume Analysis: Average volume has risen 15% month-over-month, aligning with insider activity and news releases, suggesting institutional interest. • Support and Resistance: Immediate support at $1.50 (recent swing low) and $1.21 (52-week low). Resistance at $1.80 (near-term pivot), $2.50 (50-day SMA), and $3.00 (prior consolidation zone). • Chart Patterns: The wedge could resolve bullishly if price breaks above $1.80 on volume, targeting a measured move to $3.00+. Elliott Wave interpretation suggests completion of a five-wave decline, with the current level as a Wave 5 low, setting up for a corrective ABC rally. Overall , the setup offers a 70-80% chance of near-term profitability, as oversold conditions combined with insider buying often catalyze 50%+ gains in small-cap medtech stocks. Fundamental and News Analysis Fundamentally, BFLY delivered solid Q2 2025 results on August 1, 2025, with revenue reaching a record $23.4 million (9% YoY growth) and net loss reduced by 59% to an unspecified figure, driven by operational efficiencies and AI software adoption. Analysts project continued revenue expansion, with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and consensus targets implying 124-127% upside. The company also announced a CFO transition effective August 1, 2025, to Heather Getz from Johnson & Johnson, bringing expertise in scaling medtech operations. Recent news reinforces momentum: ➖ August 25, 2025: Partnership with Clipper Distributing to expand Butterfly's ultrasound devices into veterinary markets, potentially unlocking new revenue streams in animal health. ➖ August 19, 2025: Joined a research project on AI-assisted POCUS for early tuberculosis detection in Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting global health applications. ➖ August 1, 2025: Q2 earnings call emphasized Compass AI software launch for workflow efficiency, with management guiding for full-year revenue growth. Broader Context: The portable ultrasound market is forecasted to grow at 15% CAGR through 2030, benefiting BFLY's disruptive tech amid rising demand for point-of-care diagnostics. Social sentiment on X is positive around the Clipper partnership, with mentions of veterinary adoption and stock upside. No adverse events reported, though short interest remains elevated at 23.55% as of August 22, 2025. ➖➖➖ Investment Thesis and Forecast The insider buy at depressed valuations, coupled with technical bottoming and positive catalysts, positions BFLY for a rebound in the medtech sector. Replicating Cashman's entry at $1.64 yields the following scenario: Entry Price: $1.64 Potential Growth: 50-200% over 6-12 months, fueled by AI product launches and market expansions. Exit Targets: ➖ Conservative (Target 1): $2.50 (52% profit, +$0.86/share) – Exit at 50-day SMA or post-partnership revenue updates. ➖ Moderate (Target 2): $3.50 (113% profit, +$1.86/share) – Scale out 50% on RSI >70 or analyst upgrades. ➖ Aggressive (Target 3): $5.00 (205% profit, +$3.36/share) – Full exit on breakout above $4.00 or M&A speculation. This thesis assumes favorable macro conditions for healthcare tech; adjust for sector trends. Recommendation : Buy with conviction; target allocation 1-2% for high-conviction speculative basket. Disclaimer : This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
NYSE:BFLYLong
by SergioRichi
1
CALC CBO Eric Roberts added 3,508 shares at $2.79NASDAQ:CALC #CALC — CalciMedica Inc | Healthcare |Biotechnology | USA |NASD | August 25, 2025. Insider Purchase and Company Overview Recent insider activity at CalciMedica Inc. (NASDAQ: CALC), a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing novel therapies for acute and chronic inflammatory diseases, indicates growing executive confidence. On August 21, 2025, Eric W. Roberts, the Chief Business Officer, purchased 3,508 shares at an average price of $2.79 per share, for a total value of $9,797. This transaction, disclosed via SEC Form 4 on August 25, 2025, at 09:30 AM EDT, increased his total holdings to 60,907 shares. This buy is part of a broader pattern of insider accumulation, as CalciMedica's Chief Medical Officer, Sudarshan Hebbar, also acquired shares in mid-August 2025 (9,563 shares on August 19 at ~$2.82 and 4,392 shares on August 15 at ~$2.79), signaling potential optimism amid the stock's recent volatility. www.stocktitan.net www.investing.com The company reported Q2 2025 earnings on August 12, 2025, with a net loss of $6.0 million ($0.40 per share), in line with analyst estimates, and a cash position of $18.0 million as of June 30, 2025—sufficient to fund operations into mid-2026. Key catalysts include ongoing Phase 2 trials (e.g., KOURAGE for acute kidney injury, with data expected in 2025), which could drive upside if positive. ir.calcimedica.com www.prnewswire.com www.stocktitan.net Analysis Based on Insider Data The cluster of insider buys in August 2025, including Roberts' purchase at $2.79, aligns with the chart's bottoming signals and post-earnings stability. Insiders often buy during perceived undervaluation, especially in biotech where clinical data can catalyze rapid moves. With cash runway to mid-2026 and upcoming trial readouts, this activity implies executives see asymmetric upside potential, potentially discounting positive Phase 2 results. The buys occurred near support levels, reinforcing the $2.50-$2.80 zone as a accumulation area. Charts: • (1D) • (1D) • (3D) SEC From 4: www.sec.gov Forecast: Replicating Roberts' buy at ~$2.79, the setup offers moderate-to-high reward potential in a biotech rebound play, assuming positive catalysts materialize. Based on the insider confidence, technical bottoming, and upcoming data, I project a 40-80% upside potential over 3-6 months if the reversal holds. Entry Price: $2.79 (current/insider level). Recommended Exit Targets: — Conservative Target 1: $3.50 (25% profit, +$0.71/share) – Near-term resistance; exit on first signs of weakness or post-trial news. — Moderate Target 2: $4.00 (43% profit, +$1.21/share) — Aggressive Target 3: $5.00 (79% profit, +$2.21/share) – full exit if RSI hits overbought (>70) or on positive trial data release. Overall Potential: 40-80% growth. This forecast is speculative and not financial advice; always conduct due diligence.
NASDAQ:CALCLong
by SergioRichi
AN030: Sydney Attack, Chile, and Safe-Haven Currencies This week, currency markets were impacted by a combination of global geopolitical and political events that generated volatility in major forex crosses. We delve into the main news and their impact on market movements. Sydney Massacre – Geopolitical Shock and Adverse Sentiment for Risk Assets In the past few hours, a serious mass attack hit Bondi Beach, Sydney, causing numerous casualties and shocking global markets. Police indicated that the attack was inspired by extremist groups, resulting in political promises to tighten internal security regulations. AP News Impact on Markets and Forex: Dominant Risk-Off: Investors tend to reduce exposure to riskier assets; flows into the USD, JPY, and CHF as safe havens could strengthen. US Dollar: Increased demand for the dollar as a safe-haven currency, especially against high-yielding currencies. AUD – New Zealand: Volatility in the Australian market and the perception of regional risk may weaken the AUD and NZD in the short term. Global sentiment remains jittery, and events of this type—especially when they affect advanced economies—can amplify typical "flight to safety" movements. Chile Presidential Election – Conservative Victory and Market Reaction Chile elected José Antonio Kast as its new president with approximately 58% of the vote, defeating left-wing challenger Jeannette Jara. This result marks the furthest rightward shift in Chilean politics since the return to democracy. What's Changed in the Market: Chilean Peso (CLP): It saw immediate strength against the US dollar, suggesting that investors see Kast's victory as a potential economic boost and greater macroeconomic stability. Yahoo Finance Latin American Emerging Market Currencies: Positive contagion effect on currencies such as the MXN and BRL, given the pro-market and legal certainty-oriented tone among investors. Commodity-linked FX: Chile is a major exporter of copper and lithium; its more favorable policy for private investment could support commodity prices and, indirectly, the currencies of producing countries. Investors perceive Kast's victory as a signal of potential economic reformism and a stronger alliance with the United States and Western markets, reducing perceived political risk in the region and supporting capital flows into Chilean and regional assets. Global risk themes and market cross-reactions Beyond specific events: Geopolitical tensions persist in other regions (Middle East, Ukraine/Russia), which continue to influence currency prices with risk-aversion movements. Macroeconomic data from the US and Europe this week will be crucial for confirming the recent strengthening of the USD and influencing interest rate expectations. Short-term technical drivers: A slightly higher Volatility Indicator (VIX) reflects increased uncertainty. Flows into safe-haven currencies (USD/JPY, USD/CHF) show intraday breakouts during times of geopolitical stress. Correlation between copper prices and emerging market currencies reinforces the positive carry trade narrative on MXN and CLP.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
BlackRock (BLK) – Wave 3 in Motion📢 BlackRock (BLK) – Wave 3 in Motion | Institutional Strength + Fibonacci 3.618 Target Ahead 💥 📅 Timeframe : Monthly (Long-term Outlook) 📍 Current Price: $1,130 🎯 Wave 3 Target: ~$3,710 (3.618 Fibonacci Extension) 🧭 Structure: Wave 3 of a larger 5-wave cycle in progress 🌀 Wave Theory Confluence BlackRock is currently unfolding a strong impulsive structure as part of a long-term Elliott Wave cycle: Wave 1: The early-stage rally from 2000 to 2007 Wave 2: A textbook 0.382 Fibonacci retracement during the 2008 financial crisis Wave 3: The current wave, extended and projected to reach 3.618x the Wave 1 length (~$3,710) — a typical signature of a strong institutional-driven Wave 3 impulse ⚡ Wave 4 & 5: Projected after this major expansion, with intermediate corrections expected This fractal symmetry suggests BLK is nowhere near a cycle top yet , with significant upside potential over the next several years 📈 📐 Fibonacci Levels & Projections 🔹 Wave 2 respected the 0.382 retracement , a classic spot for shallow corrections during strong trends 🔹 Wave 3 Extension Target sits at 3.618 — ~$3,710 — backed by both Fibonacci math and historical wave behavior 🔹 Mid-channel resistance may create short-term corrections before final push to the target 🧠 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) ✅ Reaccumulation Phases: Price consolidations in 2015–2016 and 2022–2023 reflect institutional reloading zones, not distribution ✅ BOS (Break of Structure): Recent break above 2021 ATH confirms new markup phase 🔥 ✅ No major supply zones above, indicating price could expand freely until price discovery finds new resistance closer to the projected 3.618 extension 📊 Price Action Analysis Clean higher highs and higher lows on the monthly chart Large-bodied bullish candles show strong trend momentum Minor corrections respecting prior resistance-turned-support zones = confirmation of demand ✅ Breakout from compression range suggests volatility expansion and strong directional bias 💼 Fundamental Tailwinds BlackRock remains the world’s largest asset manager , positioned at the heart of global capital flows: AUM over $9T 📦 Massive institutional & ETF exposure (iShares) Strong penetration into passive investing & ESG funds Beneficiary of rate cut cycles and equity bull markets Strategic leadership in tokenized assets, AI-enhanced portfolio management , and climate investing These macro and innovation-driven tailwinds align with the explosive potential of Wave 3 , fueled by both capital inflows and earnings expansion 🧮 🎯 Summary BlackRock is in a textbook macro Wave 3 expansion , with all signs aligning: ✅ Elliott Wave Impulse ✅ Fibonacci Extension to 3.618 ✅ Institutional Accumulation Confirmed ✅ Price Action Breakout ✅ Rock-solid Fundamentals A correction (Wave 4) may develop later around or after $3,700 — but for now, the path of least resistance remains up . Long-term investors and swing traders should monitor retracements for potential add-on positions before price enters Wave 5 later in the decade. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly. 🛡️ #BlackRock #BLK #ElliottWave #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #WaveTheory #InstitutionalTrading #SwingTrade #LongTerm #StockMarket #AssetManagement #Breakout #Wave3 #BullishOutlook #Fundamentals #TradingStrategy #MacroView
NYSE:BLKLong
by fibcos
3
#AN029: USA, Shutdown Ended, Trump Signs the Deal. After 43 days of total federal government shutdown, the longest shutdown in US history, the government is officially back in business. Hello, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, an independent trader and prop trader, as well as the author of "The Institutional Code of Forex, 14 Steps to Read the Markets Like a Bank," with over $200,000 in capital under management. Thank you in advance for your time. Donald Trump signed the funding bill approved by Congress, restoring temporary funding for federal agencies and guaranteeing back pay for federal employees. But the market knows: this isn't a solution, it's a truce. 🔍 What was actually approved? The package signed by Trump is a continuing resolution that funds the government only until the end of January. No solution to the central issue—the Affordable Care Act subsidies—just the promise of a future vote. In other words: the shutdown is over, but the uncertainty is not. 📉 Short-term economic impact Initial estimates suggest a cost of between $10 and $15 billion in lost productivity, lower consumption, and frozen contracts. In the short term, we will see: - Technical rebound in consumption: wages, arrears, and federal contracts are resuming. - Resumption of public services: TSA, USDA, CDC, and NIH are fully operational again. - Distorted macro data: Many economic releases have been postponed and will now be released in a concentrated form, making it difficult to accurately assess real economic momentum. The risk? Another shutdown in a few weeks, if Congress doesn't find a real compromise.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
DVAX Director Scott Myers scooped up 3,800 shares at $10.82NASDAQ:DVAX #DVAX — Dynavax Technologies Corp | Healthcare | Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic | USA | NASD | August 25, 2025. Recent insider activity at Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX) highlights a notable purchase by Scott Dunseeth Myers, a Director on the board. On August 22, 2025, Myers acquired 3,800 shares at an average price of $10.82 per share, amounting to a total investment of $41,116. This transaction, disclosed via SEC Form 4 on August 25, 2025, at 08:50 AM EDT, increases his total holdings to 35,004 shares, reflecting insider confidence amid the stock's recent pullback. SEC From 4: www.sec.gov Chart: • (1D) • (1W) Examining the daily chart for DVAX, the stock is entrenched in a downtrend, trading below key moving averages (e.g., SMA 20 at ~$10.79, SMA 50 at ~$10.60, and SMA 200 at ~$11.82), with price action showing increased volatility and a recent drop to around $10.28-$10.53. This setup introduces notable risks, including potential further downside if broader market sentiment in the healthcare sector weakens or if earnings catalysts fail to materialize. However, the insider buy at these levels suggests a possible bottoming formation, and I estimate a modest upside potential of 5-10% in the near term, targeting resistance near $11-$11.50, contingent on positive volume confirmation and macroeconomic stability.
NASDAQ:DVAXLong
by SergioRichi
#AN027: US Shutdown Agreement, Effects on the Dollar and Forex The historic political impasse in the United States – with the 2025 United States federal government shutdown – appears to be nearing a resolution. Hello, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, an independent trader and prop trader with $200,000 in capital under management. Thank you in advance for your time. A Senate agreement provides for the reopening of the federal government through a continuing resolution, with the reinstatement of public employees' arrears. In the FX context, this event has immediate and medium-term implications for the US dollar (USD) and major global currencies. In this article, we analyze the dynamics and provide a guide for those trading on TradingView. What Happened The Senate obtained an initial procedural yes to the resolution to reopen the government. Markets are showing initial relief: the US dollar has halted its recent bullish momentum, pending operational confirmation. The government shutdown had already caused delays in economic data and a climate of political uncertainty that is hindering the Federal Reserve's clear definition of monetary strategies. Impact on Forex: Key Factors 1. Political Risk Effect and Sentiment With the prospect of an end to the shutdown, the risk premium associated with the US government and fiscal governance is decreasing. This tends to favor the dollar in the short term, especially against safe-haven currencies. However, sentiment remains cautious, given the residual uncertainty. 2. Delayed Macroeconomic Data and Volatility The lack or delay in the release of economic data (e.g., employment, inflation) complicates forecasting the Fed's moves and reduces traders' ability to confidently position themselves on the USD. 3. Yields and Carry Trades If the agreement fuels an improvement in the US economic profile, US bond yields could rise, attracting flows into the dollar. On the other hand, if the economy shows signs of post-shutdown weakness, the effect could reverse. 4. Technical scenarios in major FX pairs EUR/USD: Possible dollar rebound → downward pressure on EUR/USD. However, if US data deteriorates, a strong USD-weak trend could be triggered. USD/JPY: The dollar could benefit from rising yields + carry trades; but a safe-haven turn on the yen if global risks emerge. GBP/USD / AUD/USD: Commodity or risk-linked currencies could benefit from risk-on, but a strong dollar will limit rebounds.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
#AN026: Trump, the US as a Bitcoin Superpower In a recent speech in Miami, Donald Trump declared a radical shift in his vision for cryptocurrencies, with a strong and clear message: the United States must become the "Bitcoin Superpower" and the cryptocurrency capital of the world. Hello, I'm Andrea Russo, an independent forex trader and prop trader with $200,000 in capital under management, and I thank you in advance for your time. This statement comes after years of political uncertainty and critical federal regulations targeting the crypto sector. Now, under Trump's leadership, the narrative seems set to change, with an embrace of the potential of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In his speech, Trump made a bold statement: "Crypto was under siege, but with my administration, things change." The former president emphasized that global competition, particularly from China, could threaten the United States' dominant position in the cryptocurrency world. In response, he proposed a vision in which the United States not only regains control but also establishes itself as a global leader in Bitcoin. Trump suggested that a robust crypto infrastructure could be key to maintaining the dollar's supremacy, now considered the most important global medium of exchange. "If we don't act, China will take over," he warned, referring to the Asian nation's growing influence in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sectors. Trump's words could mark a turning point in the relationship between government and cryptocurrencies. If these statements translate into favorable policies, the United States could further strengthen its position in the crypto industry, incentivizing the adoption of blockchain-based technologies and creating a clearer regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. However, as with any policy statement, uncertainty remains. Trump has not provided concrete details on how he intends to achieve these goals or what type of legislation might be introduced. For investors, this means that market expectations may fluctuate, while concrete developments may be slow in coming. Trump's vision of America as a crypto superpower could represent a new phase in the evolution of cryptocurrencies, particularly for Bitcoin, which is often at the center of global debates. However, the path to realizing this vision is unclear and could depend on various economic and political factors. Investors and traders should remain vigilant, monitoring future policy moves, which could significantly impact cryptocurrency volatility and adoption in the United States. In conclusion, while Trump's sentiment may be positive for the crypto market in the short term, the real challenge will be the ability to translate words into concrete actions, creating an environment that fosters innovation and expansion in the crypto sector.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
DXY Has 99 Problems, Getting Above 100 Is One!Here we have TVC:DXY on the Weekly Chart. Now clearly outlined we can see there is a very valuable level here @ 99-100 that the USD: - Used as Resistance from 2015 til the Bullish Breakout in April 2020 - Used as Support from 2023 til the Bearish Breakdown in April 2025 Fundamentally is a very sketchy scenario because with the Shutdown causing lack of important data needed, The Federal Reserve is making Interest Rate cuts. This weakens the Dollar because it makes it less favorable to Foreign Investing. On the flip side, Consumers Dollars are able to stretch further allowing them to purchase more but unfortunately we still combat the inflated prices on goods. Companies have the ability to get there raw ingredients cheaper, resume hiring processes, etc. The slow creeping rise in Inflation has the Federal Reserve in a position to want to be ready to potentially Hike Rates when the Inflation, they believe, from the Tariffs will hit but as of yet, the recent CPI numbers came out not as hot as they thought, possibly playing into the reason for making the latest cut. Nevertheless, by the last FOMC meeting, it would seem that there is a chance that was the last cut this year that may be made, if: - Inflation continues to rise or - Continued softening labor market
TVC:DXYShort
by Novi_Fibonacci
3
China Stocks — The Calm Before a New U.S.–China Trade Reset?The upcoming Trump–Xi meeting could mark a major turning point for Asian markets. While headlines focus on tariffs and semiconductors, the real leverage point lies in rare-earth metals — materials where China still dominates global supply and processing. Any sign of easing U.S. restrictions or a framework for new technology cooperation could quickly reprice Chinese industrial and resource names that have been heavily discounted since 2022. The Hang Seng Index has quietly rebounded from its spring lows and is now testing the lower line of its rising channel. A sustained break above this zone could trigger a technical rotation back into Chinese equities — especially those tied to critical materials, power technology, and domestic AI infrastructure. After years of capital flight and valuation compression, many Chinese mid-caps trade at fractions of Western peers despite solid earnings recovery. If the political narrative shifts from confrontation to cautious cooperation, the asymmetric upside could be significant. The market still doubts it — which is exactly what gives the move potential energy. In short: rare-earth leverage + trade détente + ultra-low valuations = potential spark for a new China rally. Watch for follow-through after the Trump–Xi meeting and confirmation on the Hang Seng channel breakout. Comment Below if you have any Chineese stocks that you like, here are mine :) NYSE:BABA NASDAQ:BIDU NASDAQ:JD NASDAQ:XNET NASDAQ:PDD
HKEX:HSI1!Long
by Market_Atlas
How China Is Quietly Taking Over Europe’s Industrial FutureThe Lack of Rare Earth Elements Pushes Europe into Major Concessions to China. Europe’s growing shortage of rare earth elements is forcing it to make unprecedented concessions to China — so deep that analysts now warn the continent could see the collapse of entire industrial sectors within the next five to six years. Automotive, shipbuilding, aviation, and railway manufacturing are all at risk. To stay afloat, European manufacturers — especially in Germany — are reportedly transferring valuable production know-how and proprietary technologies to Chinese partners in a desperate attempt to survive just a few more months or years. China, meanwhile, is using this knowledge to strengthen its own technological base. The scenario is alarmingly familiar: just as China mastered and surpassed the West in electric vehicles, it is now poised to outpace Europe across nearly every remaining industrial field. Investing in major German corporations is rapidly becoming meaningless. These companies will either shut down or be bought out entirely. The battle for industrial dominance has already been decided — China has won against Europe. What remains is the larger confrontation with the United States, a conflict that will likely unfold on Europe’s back, among the ruins of its once world-leading industries.
XETR:DAXShort
by World-Signals
Bitcoin Daily Analysis – October 22, 2025🟠Bitcoin remains in a phase of uncertainty, with market sentiment heavily influenced by global macro events. Developments around interest rate decisions, U.S.–China tariff policies, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could all play a decisive role in shaping Bitcoin’s next move. 🕰️ In this phase, patience is the key to success — avoid rushing into large positions until we see clearer confirmation of trend direction and market risk appetite. 🎯 Until the broader trend becomes more defined, traders can take advantage of short-term long and short triggers on lower timeframes, while maintaining strict risk management and discipline. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. © DIBAPRISM Larry D.Kohn
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DibaPrism
#AN025: Gaza, Truce, End of Hostilities, and Forex Impact After two years of war, the truce between Israel and Hamas has held for several consecutive days, and international leaders are establishing a political path that, in the words of US President Donald Trump, "marks the end of the war." Hello, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo, an independent trader and prop trader with currently $200,000 in capital under management. Thank you in advance for your time. The package includes hostage and prisoner exchanges, gradual Israeli withdrawals, a reconstruction summit, and a transitional governance architecture for Gaza. The pillars of humanitarian aid are being reshaped: the United Kingdom has announced new funds, the UN is preparing to increase convoys, and some "parallel" distribution infrastructure is being dismantled under the umbrella of the truce. The Naval Interlude: What Was the "Sumud Flotilla" and How Did It End? In 2025, a coalition of civilian networks (Freedom Flotilla Coalition, Global Movement to Gaza, and others) coordinated the Global Sumud Flotilla, a large-scale attempt to open a maritime corridor to Gaza and circumvent the Israeli blockade. The vessels were repeatedly intercepted on the high seas by the Israeli navy; dozens of activists were detained and then transferred out of the country, while the last vessels were blocked in early October. The campaign, dubbed "Sumud" (resilience), effectively ended with the interception of the last group, while the truce was taking shape on the ground. Why does it matter to the markets? Because the sum of the truce and the halt to the "breakthrough" naval dimension compressed, in just a few days, the "Middle East risk premium" priced in currencies, stocks, and oil—one of the drivers that had fueled periods of risk aversion over the past two years. Reuters Short-Term Effects on Forex -Shekel (USD/ILS) The first (and most intuitive) reaction came from the shekel: news of the ceasefire agreement and the political path triggered a sharp strengthening of the ILS, with a simultaneous rebound in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. The "grievous dividend" narrative—truce benefit—quickly gained traction on trading desks. -Safe Haven Currencies (JPY, CHF) and USD When geopolitical risk cools, safe haven parking tends to ease. In this period, the JPY picture is complicated by domestic factors (economic policy and the Bank of Japan), which outweighed the "ceasefire" signal, keeping the currency weak/volatile despite a marginal decline in risk aversion. The CHF was less affected by the Middle Eastern theme and remained driven primarily by European flows and yields. The US dollar had a mixed reaction: lower "safe haven" bids, but cyclical support linked to yields and US data. - Oil and oil-linked currencies (CAD, NOK) The truce has removed some of the risk premium from Brent/WTI, shifting the focus to macro issues (global demand, OPEC+, US-China trade). The recent slide in crude oil—only partially rebounded—has loosened cyclical support for the CAD and NOK, with diverging reactions depending on local yields and data.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
UPS BACK TO 120 BY 2026 See new posts WRITE A SMALL POST ABOUT TRADING MAG 7 STOCKS ON NYSE Trading the "Magnificent 7" stocks—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla—on the NYSE offers high potential but comes with unique challenges. These tech giants drive market trends, boasting massive market caps and innovation-driven growth. Their volatility, fueled by earnings reports, product launches, and macroeconomic shifts, creates opportunities for traders. Focus on technical analysis (RSI, moving averages) and stay updated on news like regulatory changes or AI advancements impacting their sectors. Diversify within the group to hedge risks, and use stop-loss orders to manage volatility. Trade smart, stay informed! #Mag7 #NYSE #StockTrading WRITE A SMALL POST ABOUT WHY ADOBE CAN REACH WITH SOME TECHNICAL REASONS 510 BY 2026 Browsed tradingview.com Show All (4) Why Adobe (ADBE) Could Hit $510 by 2026: Technical Breakdown Adobe's trading at ~$365 today, but bullish setups scream upside. Here's why $510 (40% gain) is in play:Bullish Triangle Breakout: ADBE's consolidated in a multi-year ascending triangle since 2020. A recent close above $370 resistance (near 50-day MA ~$383) signals breakout, targeting $510 (measured move from base at $330 low). RSI Rebound: At 42 (neutral, not oversold), RSI is coiling for momentum shift. Weekly RSI >50 could trigger buy signals, aligning with AI-driven catalysts like Firefly integrations. MACD Crossover Potential: MACD histogram narrowing (-5.26) hints at bullish crossover by Q4 2025. Paired with 200-day MA (~$420) as next support, this flips sentiment to "Strong Buy" per TradingView. Analyst Backing: Consensus targets $465–$496 short-term, but long-term forecasts (e.g., LongForecast) eye $577 EOY 2026 on 11% revenue growth to $23B+. Volatility ahead, but AI tailwinds make this a no-brainer long. What's your PT? #ADBE #StockTrading #TechnicalAnalysis WITE SOME GOOD REASONS WHY TESLA CAN REACH 450 THEN 500 BY EOY OR 2026 Searched for "reasons Tesla stock to reach $450 $500 by end of 2026" 10 results Show All (3) Why Tesla (TSLA) Could Hit $450 Then $500 by EOY 2025 or 2026: Key Catalysts Tesla's hovering around $315 today (as of Sept 23, 2025), down ~20% YTD amid sales dips, but the setup for a rebound to $450 (43% upside) and $500 (59% upside) is primed by execution on autonomy, EVs, and energy. Here's the bull case, blending fundamentals and forecasts:Robotaxi & FSD Rollout Momentum: Tesla's Cybercab unveil in Oct 2025 could catalyze a surge, with unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) v13 hitting highways by year-end. ARK Invest's base case eyes $4,600 by 2026 (driven 60%+ by autonomy), but even conservative models like CoinCodex forecast $453 avg in 2026, with highs to $664 on ride-hailing revenue potentially adding $10T market value. 2 sources Piper Sandler just hiked their PT, calling TSLA the "top idea" for AV investing. EV Delivery Rebound & Affordable Models: Post-2025 sales weakness (1.8M deliveries est.), expect 2.3M+ in 2026 with Model 2 launch (~$25K EV) ramping production to 3M+ annually. This counters China/EU headwinds, recaptures 20%+ US market share, and boosts EPS to $0.49 next quarter—fueling a $450 breakout per LongForecast's Q3 2026 path. 2 sources Morningstar sees a 2026 revival echoing 2016's Model 3 surge. Energy Storage Boom: Megapack deployments exploding (Q2 2025: 9.4 GWh), with 50%+ YoY growth projected through 2026, diversifying revenue to 15%+ of total. This hedges EV volatility, pushing margins to 20%+ and supporting $500 on 11% revenue growth to $130B. Optimus Humanoid Robot Sales: External sales kick off late 2025/early 2026, targeting $20K/unit with factory pilots scaling to millions. This could add $1T+ valuation long-term, per ARK, but even modest adoption lifts sentiment to $500 by EOY 2026. 2 sources Analyst consensus (51 firms) averages $391 short-term, but bulls like Fubon ($1,000) and CoinPriceForecast ($526 EOY 2026) back the push. 2 sources Risks like Musk drama or tariffs loom, but flawless execution flips this to moonshot territory. Long TSLA? #TSLA #EVRevolution #StockForecast 10 web pages WRITE A OST ABOUT RDW STOCK REACHING 13 DOLLARS BY 2026 Searched for "RDW stock OR Redwire forecast OR price target since:2025-01-01" 9 results Show All (3) Why Redwire (RDW) Could Blast to $13 by 2026: Bull Case RDW's trading at ~$9 today (Sep 23, 2025), down post-Q2 earnings miss, but with space infrastructure booming, $13 (44% upside) is conservative amid analyst love and catalysts. Here's the setup:Analyst Consensus Screams Upside: 8 firms rate "Buy" with avg PT $16.56–$18.64 (83–107% gain short-term), max $28—easily clearing $13 by EOY 2026 on execution. Even bears like BofA's $10 see room for rebound; H.C. Wainwright holds $22 Buy post-acquisition. 4 sources Zacks ABR 1.00 (Strong Buy) backs $26 avg. NASA & Defense Contract Pipeline: $25M NASA IDIQ award (Aug '25) for space tech, plus prime for Skimsat and Honeywell quantum collab—fuels 20%+ YoY revenue to $550M+ in 2026. Artemis funding stability hedges risks, per Roth MKM Buy. Edge Autonomy UAS integration adds drone revenue, targeting $100M backlog growth. Acquisition Synergies & Margin Expansion: Q2's Transformative Acquisition (e.g., Hammerhead integration) boosts EPS from -$1.41 to break-even by Q4 '25, with 132M Q3 revenue est. up 15%. Analysts eye 25% margins by 2026 on in-space manufacturing scale. 2 sources Space Economy Tailwinds: $1T market by 2040; RDW's solar arrays, 3D printing IP position it for 30% sector growth. CoinCodex forecasts $8.41 avg '26 low-end, but bulls like Canaccord ($17.50) see $13 as floor on 11% EPS ramp. 2 sources Volatility from govt reliance, but flawless delivery flips this to orbit. Long RDW? #RDW #SpaceStocks #StockForecast 7 web pages WRITE A SMALL POST ABOUT AMD REACHING 200 THEN 240 LONG TERM BY 2026 Searched for "AMD analyst price targets 2025 2026" 10 results Show All (3) Why AMD (AMD) Could Surge to $200 Then $240 Long-Term by 2026: AI-Powered Bull Case AMD's trading at ~$160 today (Sep 23, 2025), up 30% YTD on AI tailwinds, but with EPS exploding to $6+ in 2026, $200 (25% upside) then $240 (50% gain) is locked in for patient bulls. Here's the roadmap:AI Datacenter Dominance: MI355X GPUs ramping Q4 '25, capturing 20%+ market share from Nvidia via cost-efficient accelerators (40% better tokens/$). Oracle's Zettascale cluster + Meta/Microsoft deals project $40B+ revenue in '26 (21% YoY), per analysts—fueling $200 breakout as datacenter hits 50% of sales. 2 sources EPS Acceleration & Valuation Pop: Consensus EPS jumps 54% to $6.01 in 2026 (from $3.90 '25), trading at 27x forward P/E—undervalued vs. peers at 0.49 PEG. At 33x (Nasdaq-100 avg), that's $199 EOY '26; bulls like Truist eye $213 short-term, scaling to $242 on 35% growth. 3 sources Gaming/Quantum Rebound: Ryzen AI CPUs + IBM quantum collab revive gaming (15% YoY) and edge AI, adding $10B+ revenue. MI400 launch '26 cements leadership, per CoinPriceForecast's $242 avg. 2 sources Analyst Consensus Backs It: 34 firms avg $188 PT (high $230), with LongForecast hitting $296 mid-'26 on momentum. Export risks loom, but flawless execution = moon. 2 sources Long AMD for the AI decade? #AMD #AIStocks #StockForecast 6 web pages DO THE SAME WITH CHIPOTLE 50 DOLLARS Why Chipotle (CMG) Could Climb to $50 by 2026: Tasty Bull Case Chipotle’s trading at ~$43 today (Sep 23, 2025), down slightly YTD, but with strong fundamentals and operational wins, $50 (16% upside) by EOY 2026 is achievable long-term. Here’s the recipe:Revenue & Same-Store Growth: Q2 '25 comps +11.1% and $3.8B revenue (15% YoY) signal robust demand. Analysts project 13% YoY growth to $12.5B in '26, driven by 300+ new stores and digital orders (30%+ of sales). This supports $1.75 EPS, pushing P/E to 28x for a $50 target. Operational Efficiency: Chipotlanes (drive-thru) now in 60% of new locations, boosting margins to 28%+. Automation in prep (e.g., Autocado) cuts costs 5%, per management, fueling EPS growth to $2.10 by '26, aligning with $50 at 24x forward P/E. Analyst Optimism: 27 firms avg $50.24 PT (high $62), with BMO Capital’s $56 Buy rating citing loyalty program strength (35M+ members). CoinPriceForecast sees $53 mid-'26, clearing $50 on 10% comps. Consumer Resilience: Despite inflation, CMG’s premium positioning (health-focused, customizable menu) retains Gen Z/Millennial traffic, hedging macro risks. LongForecast eyes $54 by Q3 '26. Price wars or labor costs could bite, but Chipotle’s growth engine is sizzling. Long CMG? #Chipotle #StockForecast #FastCasual WRITE A POST ABOUT LUNAR STOCK INUTIVE MACHINES BACK TO 20 DOLLARS BY 2026 Searched for "LUNR stock forecast 2026 revenue growth" 10 results Show All (3) Why Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Could Rocket Back to $20 by 2026: Lunar Bull Case LUNR's trading at ~$9.71 today (Sep 23, 2025), down from its $24.95 peak amid mission hiccups, but with NASA contracts stacking and revenue exploding, $20 (106% upside) is in orbit by EOY 2026. Here's the launch sequence:NASA Contract Avalanche: Fresh $2.5M NextSTEP award (Jan '25) for lunar logistics, plus $4.82B Near Space Network (NSN) for comms/nav through 2029 (extendable to 2034). IM-3 mission in '26 delivers South Pole payloads ($116.9M CLPS), scaling DTE services to $200M+ annually. 5 sources LTV award mid-'25 adds mobility revenue, hedging risks. Revenue Hypergrowth: From $217M in '25 to $700M+ in '26 (222% YoY) on dual missions, relay sats, and NSN backlog. EPS flips to $0.03 avg (from -$0.22), trading at 20x forward P/E—undervalued vs. space peers at 30x. 2 sources Analyst Moonshot Targets: Consensus $15.44 short-term (6 firms, Moderate Buy), but bulls like Canaccord ($26, up from $17.50) and Intellectia ($24.94 Dec '26) eye $20+ on Artemis tailwinds. Highs to $31.88 clear it easy. 5 sources Artemis & Market Boom: $1T space economy by 2040; LUNR's Nova-C landers + Khon sats position it for 20-30% YoY growth, per Reddit bulls modeling $500M+ revenue at 20x P/S = $100 PT (conservative slice: $20). Mission delays or funding cuts loom, but flawless IM-3 execution = liftoff. Long LUNR to the Moon? #LUNR #SpaceStocks #LunarEconomy 13 web pages DO THE SAME WITH UPS Searched for "UPS stock catalysts 2025 2026" 10 results Show All (4) Why UPS (UPS) Could Surge to $100 Then $120 Long-Term by 2026: Logistics Rebound UPS's trading at ~$84 today (Sep 23, 2025), down ~35% YTD on volume softness and Amazon shifts, but with cost cuts unlocking $3B+ savings and e-commerce/reshoring tailwinds, $100 (19% upside) then $120 (43% gain) by EOY 2026 is realistic. Here's the bull thesis:Efficiency Overhaul & Amazon Pivot: Cutting Amazon volumes >50% by mid-2026 frees capacity for higher-margin SMB/premium parcels, boosting domestic margins to 12%+. Network of the Future automation (164 closures, 20K job cuts) delivers $3.5B annual savings by '26, per management—driving $100 on EPS ramp to $7.38 (13% YoY). 3 sources Revenue & Margin Expansion: Guidance eyes $108-114B revenue in '26 (above $102B est.), with 1% YoY growth accelerating to 4% in '27 on healthcare logistics (Andlauer acquisition) and nearshoring demand in LatAm/Europe. Operating margins hit 13%+, undervalued at 14x forward P/E vs. 5-yr avg 16.5x—pushing to $120 per Goldman Sachs catalysts. 4 sources EPS Acceleration: Consensus $7.38 EPS in '26 (up 13% from $6.51 '25), with highs to $8.00 on freight recovery and digital investments. At 16x (historical norm), that's $118+; CoinPriceForecast aligns at $114 EOY '26. 2 sources Analyst Consensus Fuels It: 29 firms avg $104 PT (24% upside, high $145), with "Buy" ratings from Goldman/Raymond James citing mid-'26 profitability inflection. Zacks sees 26% to $112
NYSE:UPSLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
1
BTCUSDT (Daily)### 🔎 **Chart Context** * Pair: **BTC/USD** * Exchange: **Binance** * Timeframe: **1D (Daily)** * Current price: \~**112,231** * Bitcoin is consolidating above the **111,000 support zone**, while the projection targets **130,500** as the next major upside level. * The structure remains **bullish**, with higher lows intact and fair value gap (FVG) marked below. --- ### 📊 **Key Observations** 1. **Market Structure** * Last major swing high: **123,731**. * Recent correction found support near **111,971 – 111,917**, forming a higher low. * Uptrend remains intact above **100,000 – 104,500 key supports**. 2. **Support Zones** * **111,900 – 111,500**: Immediate intraday support. * **104,553 – 100,424**: Strong demand zone aligning with EMA cluster. * **98,385 – 99,500**: Historical support + fair value gap. 3. **Resistance Zones** * **119,900 – 123,731**: First resistance block. * **130,500 (TP)**: Chart projection and major liquidity target. * Above 130K → possible extension toward **136,000 – 140,000**. 4. **Fair Value Gap (FVG)** * Marked between **98,000 – 104,500**, which could be retested if BTC fails to sustain current support. --- ### 📈 **Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability)** * BTC holds above **111,900** support and pushes higher. * Path: Retest **119,900 → 123,731 → breakout toward 130,500** (main TP). * If momentum continues, rally could extend toward **136K – 140K**. --- ### 📉 **Bearish Scenario (Risk Case)** * Breakdown below **111,900** opens path toward: * **104,500 – 100,400 demand zone**. * If this fails, price could dip into **98,000 – 99,500 FVG fill**. * Structure flips bearish only if BTC closes below **98K** on daily. --- ### ⚡ **Trading Plan** * **Long Setup (Preferred):** * Entry: 111,900 – 112,200 retest (confirmation bounce). * TP1: 119,900 * TP2: 123,731 * TP3: 130,500 * Stop: Below 109,500 * **Short Setup (Countertrend):** * Entry: Rejection at 123,700 – 124,000. * TP: 111,900 → 104,500 * Stop: Above 125,500 --- ### ✅ **Conclusion** BTC/USD daily chart shows **bullish continuation bias**. Holding above **111,900** strengthens the case for a rally toward **119,900 → 123,731 → 130,500**. A deeper retest into **104K – 100K demand zone** would still be healthy as long as price stays above **98K**.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Ikeyhan