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Usdcadanalysis

USDCAD Double Top Signals a Potential BreakdownUSDCAD pair is testing a critical resistance area near 1.3830 after a strong rebound. But the price structure is beginning to flash signs of exhaustion. With repeated rejections and a clear double-top pattern forming, the setup favors a bearish move. If momentum turns, we could see a meaningful correction toward the 1.3730 support zone, with deeper downside risk into mid-September. Current Bias Bearish rejection at resistance, structure favors downside continuation. Key Fundamental Drivers Canada: Weak August jobs report (unemployment 7.1%, wages cooling) raised BoC cut expectations, pressuring CAD. But oil prices (Brent ~$65) limit the downside risk, giving CAD some commodity support. U.S.: Weaker jobs (+142k NFP, unemployment 4.3%) keeps Fed cuts on the table, capping USD upside. Core PCE sticky at 2.9%, but inflation trend is moderating. Macro Context Interest Rates: Fed expected to cut in coming months; BoC markets price ~90% chance of a September cut. Economic Growth: U.S. slowing but still resilient, Canada contracting (Q2 GDP −0.4% q/q). Commodities: Oil’s soft rebound provides CAD with some stability. Geopolitics: Trade tensions (U.S. tariffs, China-Russia bond coordination) keep USD supported as a defensive hedge. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp oil sell-off would weaken CAD and trigger USD/CAD upside. U.S. CPI surprise to the upside could reprice Fed expectations, boosting USD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event U.S. CPI (this week): Will decide Fed cut timing. BoC September rate decision: High probability of a cut, market focus on forward guidance. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD is typically a lagger — following USD direction (via Fed expectations) and CAD flows (via oil). It often mirrors oil price action and diverges from USD/JPY, reflecting risk sentiment shifts. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3732, 1.3585 Resistance Levels: 1.3830, 1.3875 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3875 Take Profit (TP): 1.3732 (first), 1.3585 (extended) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is leaning bearish after failing to break cleanly above 1.3830. Fundamentals point to a tug-of-war between dovish BoC expectations and weaker U.S. data, but the chart structure favors downside into 1.3732 and potentially 1.3585. My stop loss sits above 1.3875 to protect against a breakout. Watch U.S. CPI as the key driver: a hotter print could revive USD strength, while a softer read could accelerate CAD gains. Oil’s stability remains a secondary but important factor for CAD resilience.
Short
by ultreosforex
Canadian Dollar Falls After Labour Market Data ReleaseCanadian Dollar Falls After Labour Market Data Release On Friday, disappointing figures showed that in August the Canadian economy lost 65,500 jobs (the forecast had been for an increase of 10,000), while the unemployment rate rose to 7.1%. This is the highest level of unemployment since May 2016, excluding the pandemic period. It is believed that: → the deterioration in the labour market (primarily in manufacturing) is a consequence of the trade war with the United States; → the fall in employment in Canada has increased the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will resume its monetary easing campaign. As a result, the CAD weakened sharply against other currencies. However, the depreciation against the US dollar was less pronounced, as the USD itself is under pressure from various factors. Technical Analysis of USD/CAD From a long-term perspective, the USD/CAD pair remains within a downward trend, highlighted by a red descending channel. From a medium-term perspective, since July the rate has risen from the 1.3550–1.3600 support zone, forming an ascending channel (shown in blue). Price action (indicated by arrows) shows that: → sellers are aggressive, pushing the price down from the upper boundary of the red channel; → buyers are aggressive, driving the price up from the lower boundary of the blue channel. Its median line acts as resistance. This is compressing USD/CAD fluctuations into a pattern resembling a symmetrical narrowing triangle (shown in black), with recent overbought (1) and oversold (2) conditions on the RSI marking price reversals back into the triangle from its boundaries. Thus, we could assume that supply and demand forces will keep USD/CAD in a state of temporary balance while awaiting key news next week: → 16 September – Canada CPI report; → 17 September – interest rate decisions from both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
USD/CAD – Bulls Eyeing a Bounce from Key Demand ZoneAfter an aggressive correction from the 1.3920 highs, USD/CAD has now landed on a heavy demand zone near 1.3720 – 1.3740. This area has proven to be a launchpad for rallies in recent weeks, and price is once again testing buyers’ conviction. With both technical structure and macro fundamentals in play, this zone could determine the next major swing. Current Bias Bullish bias as long as 1.3720 holds, with upside potential toward 1.3818 and 1.3920 supply. Key Fundamental Drivers USD: Supported by sticky inflation (Core PCE 2.9% y/y) and resilient consumer spending (+0.5% m/m). Fed rate cut expectations have softened, keeping the dollar supported. CAD: Weighed down by weaker Canadian GDP (Q2 annualized -1.6%, q/q -0.4%) and slowing momentum in domestic growth. Oil remains weak near $64, offering little support to the loonie. Macro Context Rates: The Fed remains cautious with cuts, while the BoC faces pressure from economic contraction. Interest rate divergence favors the USD. Growth Trends: US growth remains firmer compared to Canada’s slowdown. Commodities: Oil’s weakness is a drag on CAD, making the currency vulnerable. Geopolitics: Ongoing tariff disputes and Middle East energy risks keep USD demand steady as a safe haven, further weighing on CAD. Primary Risk to the Trend A deeper selloff in USD on unexpected Fed dovishness or a sharp rebound in oil prices (driven by geopolitical shocks or supply cuts) could strengthen CAD and invalidate the bullish setup. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US ISM PMI & NFP (this week): Key drivers for Fed policy path. Canada Jobs Report (Friday): Critical for CAD sentiment after the weak GDP print. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD tends to lag oil and broader USD moves. It often follows the dollar’s momentum, while oil price shocks can lead moves on CAD. Currently, the pair is USD-led, making it more reactive to Fed data than Canadian domestic flows. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3720 – 1.3740 (demand zone), 1.3660. Resistance Levels: 1.3818 (mid-resistance), 1.3918 – 1.3925 (major supply). Stop Loss (SL): 1.3650 (below demand zone invalidation). Take Profit (TP): 1.3818 (first target), 1.3920 (extended target). Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is sitting at a key demand zone around 1.3720 – 1.3740, where buyers need to defend the trend. The bias remains bullish above this level, with upside targets at 1.3818 and 1.3920. A break below 1.3650 would invalidate the long setup and expose further downside. With US data in focus and CAD weighed down by weak GDP and soft oil prices, the pair is more likely to follow USD momentum in the near term. Traders should watch NFP and Canada’s jobs data closely, as these will dictate whether this bounce carries to new highs or fades into deeper consolidation.
Long
by ultreosforex
8
USDCAD: Bearish. Buy The Dip?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 1 - 5th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USDCAD Points of Interest: - There are RELs (relative equal lows) at 1.3721 as a draw on liquidity - Just underneath that, is a +FVG between 1.3716 and 1.3688. I am looking for the reaction below those liquidity lows and the contact with the +FVG. If price presents a bullish CISD (market shift) only then will I entertain longs. Shorts are best for now, as the HTFs are bearish. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
by RT_Money
The Loonie Trap! Is USD/CAD About to Explode Higher?💵 USD/CAD "The Loonie" Forex Bank Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) 🏦🐱‍👤 🌟Dear Ladies & Gentlemen – Thief OG’s & Market Robbers!🌟 The vault is loaded, and today’s heist target is none other than USD/CAD "The Loonie". We play it the Thief way – patient, layered, and ready to strike only when the breakout lights the fuse ⚡ 📈 Entry (Pending Breakout Plan) Breakout Level: 1.38700 ⚡ "Wait for the alarm – the heist starts only when the vault door cracks!" Layered Buy Limit Entries: (Thief Strategy DCA) 1.38600 1.38400 1.38200 (You can add more layers based on your style – Thief never limits the tools of a robbery!) 📌 Pro Tip: Set an Alarm on TradingView so you’ll know exactly when the breakout hits – thieves don’t wait blindly. 🛑 Stop Loss (Thief-Style Safety) SL only after breakout + pullback confirmation 🚨 My vault lock suggestion: 1.37900 But remember, Thief OG’s – SL is YOUR call. Adjust based on risk, layering size & style. Don’t just follow me blindly – no one tells a thief how to escape 😉 🎯 Take Profit (The Escape Plan) Electric shock resistance zone ahead – bail out before getting fried ⚡ TP @ 1.39700 💰 But again – you choose when to grab the bag & vanish 🏃💨. Thief rules: steal, escape, disappear! 📰 Thief Notes Strategy: Layered Buy Orders ✅ Style: Swing/Day Trade 🕰️ Target: Quick smash-and-grab before resistance cops arrive 🚓 Risk: Always manage YOUR loot. 💖 Dear Thief OG’s, if you vibe with this USD/CAD Loonie Bank Heist Plan, hit the Boost Button 🚀. The more we boost, the stronger our robbery crew becomes 🏆💪💵 👉 Stay tuned – next heist drops soon 🤑
Long
by The-Thief
USDCAD Long Setup: From PRZ to Resistance LinesToday, I want to review the USDCAD ( OANDA:USDCAD ) long position with you. USDCAD has reacted well to Support lines and the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ)(1.373 CAD-1.370 CAD) . From the perspective of Elliott wave theory , it seems that USDCAD has completed the microwave 5 of the main wave C . I expect USDCAD to rise to the Resistance lines in the short term. Second Target: 1.3817 CAD Stop Loss(SL): 1.3698 CAD Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar Analyze (USDCAD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
10
USDCAD BUYS🔎 Technical Breakdown Breakout Structure Price had been consolidating in a sideways range after a strong downtrend. Recently, price broke out of the consolidation zone to the upside, showing buyers stepping in. Current candles are forming higher lows → early trend reversal signals. Support Zone (Demand Area) Around 1.3730–1.3740, price rejected multiple times (wicks). This shows strong demand, making it a safe stop-loss zone. Candle Behavior Recent bullish candles have longer bodies and smaller wicks → momentum favors buyers. The last red candles got quickly engulfed by blue (bullish) candles → market bias shifted. Risk-to-Reward (RRR) SL around 1.3731 and TP1 at 1.3770 / TP2 1.3790 gives you nearly a 1:2 RRR, which is favorable. Market Context USDCAD often reacts strongly to oil price moves and USD strength. If USD is stable/strong, buying pressure supports this setup. Also, this looks like a retracement entry after a sell-off, catching the early reversal PS - STILL BEARISH IN DAILY TF
Long
by acefxtrades
Market Analysis: USD/CAD Faces Fresh DeclineMarket Analysis: USD/CAD Faces Fresh Decline USD/CAD declined and is now consolidating losses below 1.3800. Important Takeaways for USD/CAD Analysis Today - USD/CAD started a fresh decline after it failed to stay above 1.3900. - There is a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3755 on the hourly chart. USD/CAD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of USD/CAD, the pair climbed toward 1.3900 before the bears appeared. It formed a swing high near 1.3867 and recently declined below 1.3800. There was also a close below the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3785. The bulls are now active near 1.3720. If there is an upside correction, the pair could face resistance near 1.3755 and a connecting bearish trend line. The trend line is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3867 swing high to the 1.3718 low. If there is an upside break above the trend line, the pair could rise toward the 1.3785 pivot level. The next key hurdle on the USD/CAD chart is near the 61.8% Fib retracement at 1.3810. If there is an upside break above 1.3810, the pair could rise toward 1.3865. The next major sell zone is 1.3930, above which it could rise steadily toward the 1.4000 handle. Immediate support is near the 1.3720 level. The first major support could be 1.3700. A close below the 1.3700 level might trigger a strong decline. In the stated case, USD/CAD might test 1.3600. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a drop toward 1.3500. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
Is the USDCAD Rally Overextended Into Key Resistance Levels?The USDCAD is currently testing a formidable resistance zone following a period of strong bullish momentum. The primary catalyst for this upward repricing has been a clear divergence in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is maintaining its hawkish bias, supported by persistent U.S. inflation data, which provides underlying strength to the dollar. 🦅 Conversely, moderating CPI in Canada has allowed the Bank of Canada to adopt a more dovish tone, creating a fundamental headwind for the loonie. 🍁 From a technical standpoint, the rally appears overextended, with momentum indicators suggesting the pair is now in overbought territory. 🛑 We're observing signs of price exhaustion as it challenges this key multi-month resistance level. Institutional sentiment is consequently shifting towards caution. The key strategic question now is whether we see a confirmed breakout on significant volume or a mean reversion scenario. At these levels, the risk-reward profile for new long positions is becoming unfavorable without further confirmation. I'm monitoring for either a decisive close above this zone or for signs of a corrective pullback. Stay sharp.
by fxtraderanthony
USDCAD Heading Towards Important Resistance D1✏️The old USDCAD analysis strategy was correct when the uptrend returned to the pair. 1.399 is the target of BUY signals when this zone accumulates a lot of selling momentum. The Breakout zone of 1.375 is considered a strong support zone forming a wide price range of the pair. The trading strategy is focused on the two resistance and support zones above. 📉 Key Levels BUY trigger Strong support zone 1.375 SELL trigger Strong resistance zone 1.399 Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
by VHT_Trader
10
USD/CAD: Inverse Head & Shoulders Playing OutHello guys. The chart is showing a clear inverse head & shoulders pattern, which often signals a potential bullish reversal. Price is now pushing above the neckline, suggesting momentum is shifting to the upside. As long as buyers hold this breakout, there’s room for continuation toward the 1.3853 and 1.3868 resistance levels. Key Levels: Support: 1.3720 (pattern invalidation if broken) Breakout Zone: 1.3800–1.3820 (neckline retest area) Targets: 1.3853 → 1.3868
Long
by melikatrader94
9
USD/CAD) Bearish Trend Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/CAD on the 4H timeframe, using Smart Money Concepts (SMC). --- 🔍 Technical Breakdown – USD/CAD (4H) 1. FVG (Fair Value Gap) / Supply Zone Price is currently trading inside a supply/FVG zone (highlighted in yellow at the top). Market is reacting to this imbalance area where institutional selling pressure is expected. 2. BOS (Break of Structure) Earlier, price made a Break of Structure (BOS) on the downside, confirming a bearish shift in market structure. The current bullish retracement into the supply zone is likely just a pullback before continuation down. 3. Bearish Rejection Expected From the chart, price is anticipated to reject from the supply zone and start a bearish move. Projection shows a strong drop toward the target support zone (SSS). 4. Target Point Final downside target is marked at 1.35847, aligning with the Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) / Support zone (SSS). This zone is a strong liquidity pool where price may hunt stop losses before reversing. --- Summary Bias: Bearish Current Price: 1.38147 Supply Zone (FVG): 1.3800 – 1.3850 (reaction expected) Target Zone (SSS): 1.35847 Setup: Look for short entries inside supply zone with confirmation. Mr SMC Trading point This is a classic SMC setup: BOS Pullback to FVG Liquidity hunt Target Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
USD/CAD Bullish Bias Supported by COT Data and Seasonal Trends🗓 Monthly Chart Overview • Price Inefficiency Zone: There's a clear imbalance between 1.40165 and 1.41248, suggesting a potential magnet for price. A retracement to at least the 50% level of this inefficiency could be expected. • Bullish Structure: Price has formed a bullish order block and is currently retracing, which often precedes a continuation move upward. • This setup hints at accumulation before a bullish expansion. 📆 Weekly Chart Insights • Inefficiency Filled: Price has filled previous inefficiencies, showing healthy market structure. • Liquidity Behavior: We've seen price sweep lows, then begin sweeping highs, while respecting bullish blocks—a strong indication of a shift in directional intent. • This behavior supports the idea that USD/CAD is preparing for a bullish continuation. 📅 Daily Chart Momentum • Aggressive Breakout: After a period of consolidation, price broke out aggressively to the upside, confirming bullish momentum. • Structure: The daily chart maintains a bullish structure, reinforcing the higher timeframe bias. 💹 Commitment of Traders (COT) Data • USD Positioning: The U.S. Dollar is showing net buying interest, supporting strength. • CAD Positioning: The Canadian Dollar is net bearish on average when compared to last year’s data. • This divergence in sentiment adds confluence to a bullish USD/CAD bias. 📊 Seasonal Trends • Historically, USD/CAD tends to rise from August through November, with September, October, and especially November being the most bullish months. • This seasonal tendency aligns with the current technical and fundamental setup. 🏦 Macro Considerations • Interest Rates: Keep a close eye on central bank rate decisions and forward guidance, as they can significantly impact USD/CAD volatility and direction. 🔍 Summary USD/CAD shows strong bullish potential across monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes. Technical structure, COT data, and seasonal trends all point toward a continuation to the upside. A revisit to the inefficiency zone around 1.4060–1.4120 could be a key target in the coming months.
Long
by Wiiso
USD/CAD Bullish Heist Plan – Will You Join the Crew?💼💸 USD/CAD "The Loonie" – Bullish Vault Heist Plan 🕶️📈 "Layer the Entry. Stack the Cash. Escape Clean." 🧠 Mastermind Setup (Thief Trader Blueprint) 🔍 Asset: USD/CAD – The Loonie (Forex Market) 📜 Plan: Bullish — Thief is moving in with precision layering strategy. 📈 Entry Plan: Thief’s not kicking the door once—he’s picking multiple locks! Layer those buy limits for stealth entries: (1.37700) 🏦 | (1.37500) 💰 | (1.37300) 🔑 | (1.37000) 🚪 💡 Add more layers if the vault’s deeper than expected. 🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 🎯 Official Thief SL parked @ 1.37000. But remember—OG thieves adjust SL to match their risk appetite & personal strategy. 🎯 Target: 1.38680 – Grab the loot and vanish! 📢 Heist Intel (Market Context) USD/CAD is eyeing upside momentum, powered by USD strength + oil price plays. Expect pullbacks before the real breakout—perfect for layered infiltration. ⚠️ Thief’s Street Rules: Don’t enter during high-impact news — guards will be on alert. Use trailing stops to protect the loot once in profit. Layer patiently—don’t rush the vault door. 💣 Final Words from the Crew: Every pip is a coin in the bag. Stay disciplined, stay layered, and leave no trace. 🐱‍👤💎 💖 Boost the plan, share with the crew, and let’s make this Loonie Heist legendary. 🚀💼
Long
by The-Thief
USDCAD Prepaing to Gilde Down ??USDCAD has been struglling to move up, All the monthly and Bi-Monthly analysis show down including D1. Check your support and resistances and open positions accordingly. Wait for Price Again to preform and see the strong breakouts. Disclaimer: The content presented in this IMAGE is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading foreign exchange (Forex) on margin involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The use of leverage can work both for and against you. Before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance. There is a possibility that you may incur a loss of some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be fully aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from a licensed and independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always trade responsibly.
Short
by forexnawaab