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Usdcadanalysis

USDCAD Forming Bullish StructureUSDCAD on the daily chart is maintaining a strong bullish structure after breaking above the previous resistance zone around 1.3940. The market has been forming higher highs and higher lows, showing solid buying pressure as the pair heads toward the 1.4140–1.4200 resistance range. The current price action suggests a potential continuation setup where a minor pullback toward the breakout zone could invite more buyers before the next bullish impulse. The upward momentum is supported by clear technical strength, making this a favorable setup for long positions if price sustains above 1.3940. From a fundamental standpoint, the US dollar remains dominant amid the ongoing strength in the US economy and persistent inflation pressures, which keep expectations of prolonged higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve alive. In contrast, the Canadian dollar faces pressure due to weaker growth prospects and declining oil prices, which reduce demand for the CAD as a commodity-linked currency. Additionally, global risk sentiment has leaned defensive, favoring the USD as a safe-haven asset. If the bullish momentum continues and the market holds above the current support region, USDCAD could likely retest the 1.4140–1.4200 zone in the near term. Traders will closely monitor US inflation data and crude oil performance as key drivers for this pair’s next move. Overall, the setup aligns with both technical and fundamental bullish conditions, offering a clear profit potential on continuation of the trend.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
Is This the Next Bullish Wave for USD/CAD Traders?💵 USD/CAD "THE LOONIE" | Forex Market Wealth Strategy Map (Swing/Day Trade) 📊 Trade Plan: BULLISH Outlook Entry Style (Thief Layering Strategy): Multiple buy limit orders layered around 🔑 key levels. Example layers: 🟢 1.37600 🟢 1.37700 🟢 1.37800 🟢 1.37900 🟢 1.38000 (You can increase or reduce your own limit layers depending on risk & style). Stop Loss (Thief SL 🚨): 🛑 Suggested protective stop @ 1.37400 ⚠️ Note to my OG Thief crew: This SL is just my style. You are free to choose your own SL — manage your risk your way. Target (Police Trap Exit 🎯): 👮‍♂️ Strong resistance + overbought conditions = possible trap zone. 🎯 Target: 1.39200 ⚠️ Note: Same as above — this TP is my roadmap, but you choose how & when to take profits. Escape smart! 🔍 Key Market Outlook USD/CAD shows bullish momentum supported by USD resilience and CAD lagging on weaker oil flows. Macro View: Fed’s tone + oil market softness = stronger USD pressure on CAD. Sentiment Check: Buyers layering in, market showing gradual accumulation. Police (resistance) spotted higher up — profit-taking advised before getting caught in the trap! 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch & Correlations 💹 TVC:DXY → Dollar Index (tracks USD strength 💪). 🛢 BLACKBULL:WTI Crude Oil → CAD correlation 🔑 (weaker oil = weaker CAD). 💶 FX:EURUSD / FX:GBPUSD → Inverse flows vs USD. 🇲🇽 FX:USDMXN → Another USD + commodity-linked pair to compare moves. Keeping an eye on these helps confirm momentum across markets ✅. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a Thief style trading strategy 🥷 created for fun & educational sharing only. This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. #USDCAD #Forex #SwingTrade #DayTrading #TradingStrategy #Loonie #ThiefStyle #FXCorrelations #Dollar #CAD #ForexCommunity
Long
by The-Thief
USD/CAD Bullish Bias Supported by COT Data and Seasonal Trends🗓 Monthly Chart Overview • Price Inefficiency Zone: There's a clear imbalance between 1.40165 and 1.41248, suggesting a potential magnet for price. A retracement to at least the 50% level of this inefficiency could be expected. • Bullish Structure: Price has formed a bullish order block and is currently retracing, which often precedes a continuation move upward. • This setup hints at accumulation before a bullish expansion. 📆 Weekly Chart Insights • Inefficiency Filled: Price has filled previous inefficiencies, showing healthy market structure. • Liquidity Behavior: We've seen price sweep lows, then begin sweeping highs, while respecting bullish blocks—a strong indication of a shift in directional intent. • This behavior supports the idea that USD/CAD is preparing for a bullish continuation. 📅 Daily Chart Momentum • Aggressive Breakout: After a period of consolidation, price broke out aggressively to the upside, confirming bullish momentum. • Structure: The daily chart maintains a bullish structure, reinforcing the higher timeframe bias. 💹 Commitment of Traders (COT) Data • USD Positioning: The U.S. Dollar is showing net buying interest, supporting strength. • CAD Positioning: The Canadian Dollar is net bearish on average when compared to last year’s data. • This divergence in sentiment adds confluence to a bullish USD/CAD bias. 📊 Seasonal Trends • Historically, USD/CAD tends to rise from August through November, with September, October, and especially November being the most bullish months. • This seasonal tendency aligns with the current technical and fundamental setup. 🏦 Macro Considerations • Interest Rates: Keep a close eye on central bank rate decisions and forward guidance, as they can significantly impact USD/CAD volatility and direction. 🔍 Summary USD/CAD shows strong bullish potential across monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes. Technical structure, COT data, and seasonal trends all point toward a continuation to the upside. A revisit to the inefficiency zone around 1.4060–1.4120 could be a key target in the coming months.
Long
by Wiiso
#USDCAD: Two Major Buying Zones, Patience Pays! As previously analysed, USDCAD is expected to decline towards our predetermined entry point. We anticipate a bearish US Dollar for the remainder of the week, which will ultimately lead USDCAD to reach the entry zone. Three distinct target areas exist, collectively worth over 1100 pips. Each entry point, stop loss, and take profit is clearly defined. We wish you the best of luck and safe trading. Thank you for your support. If you wish to assist us, we encourage you to consider the following actions: - Like our ideas - Provide comments on our ideas - Share our ideas Kind Regards, Team Setupsfx_ Much Love ❤️🚀
Long
by Setupsfx_
5
#USDCAD: 1000+ Pips Big Bullish Move With Three TargetsThe USDCAD is currently in a bearish trend since the day has dropped significantly and is still falling. We anticipate the price to drop slightly more before it reaches our entry zone. There are two entry points, and you can choose either one that aligns with your views. There are three targets, and you can set take profit targets that suit you best. Good luck and trade safely. Thanks for your support! 😊 If you want to help us out, here are a few things you can do: - Like our ideas - Comment on our ideas - Share our ideas Team Setupsfx_ ❤️🚀
Long
by Setupsfx_
18
USD/CAD) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/CAD Bullish Continuation Setup (4H Chart) Technical Overview: Instrument: U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Timeframe: 4-Hour Current Price: ~1.4028 Bias: Bullish --- Chart Breakdown: 1. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Zone – Demand Area (Yellow Box): Price recently filled the FVG and respected the 1.3970–1.3990 support zone. This zone acted as a bullish mitigation area, showing institutional buying interest. 2. Structure Shift: After consolidating, USD/CAD broke above short-term highs, confirming a bullish market structure shift (MSS). The ongoing pullback into the FVG area could serve as a retest entry point. 3. Target Point: Projected target is around 1.4124, aligning with previous liquidity highs. This move suggests a potential +100 pips upside from current levels. 4. Trade Plan: Entry Zone: 1.3980 – 1.4000 (on FVG retest) Target: 1.4124 Invalidation: Below 1.3950 (if structure fails and price re-enters deeper range) Mr SMC Trading point --- Trading Insight: This setup reflects a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) bullish continuation pattern. The market has broken structure to the upside and is likely to continue higher after a brief retracement into the fair value gap zone — targeting liquidity resting above 1.4124. --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
Is the USD/CAD Re-Accumulation Zone the Next Bullish Launchpad?💰 USD/CAD “THE LOONIE” — Forex Market Profit Playbook (Swing/Day Trade) 📊 Plan: BULLISH Bias confirmed by Re-Accumulation Zone (Smart Money activity detected!) The “Thief Strategy” hunts liquidity smartly — using layered limit buys at key levels to capture institutional footprints without chasing candles. 🎯 Entry Plan (Layering Strategy Style) The Thief strategy uses multiple buy limit layers — a smart method to scale into a position without full exposure at once. Buy Limit Layers: 1️⃣ 1.39800 2️⃣ 1.39900 3️⃣ 1.40000 4️⃣ 1.40200 💡 You can adjust or increase the limit layers based on your own trade risk and capital exposure. 🛡️ Stop Loss (SL): 📍 Suggested protective stop: 1.39600 Not financial advice — each trader’s risk tolerance may vary. Manage risk wisely like a pro! 💵 Target (Take Profit Zone): 🎯 1.41300 — The “Police Barricade” (major resistance area). This zone may act as a strong barrier due to overbought conditions and potential liquidity traps. Take your profits smartly and escape before the cops arrive! 🚓💨 ⚠️ Notes to Thief OGs: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OGs) — this isn’t a signal, it’s a playbook idea. You’re free to adjust entries, SLs, and TPs based on your own analysis and money management plan. Trade smart. Take profits wisely. Risk what you can afford to lose. 🧠💼 🔍 Related Pairs to Watch: TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index) → USD strength driver, watch for momentum continuation. BLACKBULL:WTI (Crude Oil) → Strong inverse correlation with CAD; rising oil often boosts CAD (bearish USD/CAD). FX:USDCNH → USD sentiment barometer — positive correlation with USD/CAD. OANDA:AUDCAD / OANDA:NZDCAD → Cross-check for CAD sentiment confirmation across commodity pairs. 🧭 Key Catalysts & Correlations: USD fundamentals: Fed stance, CPI, and bond yields continue to influence direction. CAD sentiment: Oil price movement and BoC tone will shape the medium-term bias. Risk sentiment: Strong equity rally = weaker USD; risk-off tone = stronger USD. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” 📜 Disclaimer: This is a Thief-style trading strategy shared for educational and entertainment purposes only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly and with discipline. #USDCAD #Forex #SwingTrade #DayTrade #SmartMoney #Reaccumulation #PriceAction #LiquidityHunt #TradingStrategy #MarketPlaybook #FXAnalysis #DollarIndex #ThiefStrategy #TradingViewIdeas #BullishSetup #ForexCommunity
Long
by The-Thief
USDCAD Bullish Setup | Wait for Break of Structure ConfirmationUSDCAD continues to trend bullish on the higher timeframe 💪. Recently, we’ve seen a healthy retracement, which could provide the groundwork for a potential trend continuation setup. 🔎 On the 30-minute chart, I’m watching closely for a bullish break of market structure followed by a retest of the current range. If that plays out, it could present a solid buy opportunity aligned with the higher-timeframe trend 📈. ⚖️ However, if price fails to break structure and confirm the setup, there’s no trade — patience is key here. We simply wait for the market to show its hand before acting. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
USDCAD Dollar Building as Loonie Struggles with Oil & Weak DataUSDCAD has surged into a key resistance zone, showing resilience even against temporary pullbacks. The pair is benefiting from broad USD strength as the Fed maintains a cautious stance on rate cuts, while the Canadian dollar is weighed down by weaker labor data and softer oil demand. Price action suggests the market is gearing up for another bullish extension if buyers can defend current support. Current Bias Bullish – upward momentum is intact with strong support holding above 1.3930 and potential continuation toward higher resistance. Key Fundamental Drivers USD Strength: Supported by sticky US inflation and a Fed reluctant to accelerate cuts. CAD Weakness: Canada’s job market recovery remains patchy, with unemployment elevated and wage growth cooling. Oil Prices: Recent volatility in crude undermines CAD, which typically benefits from higher energy prices. Macro Context Interest Rate Expectations: Fed holding rates steady longer, BoC facing pressure to ease further if labor market slack persists. Economic Growth Trends: US growth remains steady, Canada showing signs of stagnation. Commodity Flows: Oil fluctuations weigh directly on CAD; weaker demand outlook adds to downside risk. Geopolitical Themes: Global tariff disputes and risk aversion support USD safe-haven flows at the expense of CAD. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp rebound in oil prices or stronger-than-expected Canadian inflation data could strengthen CAD and cap USD gains. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada CPI (Oct 22) will be critical for BoC expectations. US CPI and Fed speeches remain key for dollar direction. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDCAD is more of a lagger, reacting to USD moves and oil-driven CAD flows. It follows broader USD direction but can influence CAD crosses like CADJPY and EURCAD. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3930 (short-term support) 1.3842 (structural support) Resistance Levels: 1.4035 (near-term resistance) 1.4147 (major target) Stop Loss (SL): 1.3842 Take Profit (TP): 1.4147 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDCAD bias is bullish, with buyers defending support and positioning for another leg higher. The fundamental backdrop of a stronger USD and weaker CAD underpins the move, with oil prices adding a bearish weight to the Canadian dollar. The setup looks favorable for continuation toward 1.4147, provided support at 1.3930 holds. Stop loss sits at 1.3842 to protect against a deeper correction, while the take profit is set at 1.4147. The pair remains a lagger, following USD strength and oil dynamics, making US and Canadian inflation data the most important watchpoints ahead.
Long
by ultreosforex
#USDCAD: Price to continue remain bullish! Let's wait and watchDear traders, I hope you all are doing well. The USDCAD pair has been extremely bullish since the CAD currency began to decline. We now have an excellent opportunity to rise, with the potential for the price to reverse in good time. This analysis is based solely on the current market conditions and price behaviour, so it may differ from your own views. The target is a swing, and you can adjust it according to your own analysis. Please use this analysis for educational purposes only. Good luck and trade safely! Team Setupsfx_
Long
by Setupsfx_
8
Forex Idea: USDCAD Short Bias – D1 Supply Zone ReactionUSDCAD has been trading in a ranging market over the past few sessions, consolidating after a strong bullish extension that began from the key level 1.3760 on September 25. This upward move has now brought price into a well-defined Supply Zone between 1.3885 and 1.3985, a 100-pip band that historically attracts selling pressure. 📊 Technical Breakdown - Supply Zone (1.3885–1.3985): Price has entered a high-probability reversal area on the Daily chart. This zone has previously acted as a ceiling, and early signs of rejection are emerging. - Ranging Behavior: The market has stalled within this zone, printing indecisive candles and suggesting a potential shift in momentum. This consolidation often precedes a breakout or reversal. - Extension from 1.3760: The bullish leg from this key level has now matured, and the pair may be due for a corrective move or deeper retracement. 🎯 Trade Outlook This setup favors a short bias, especially if bearish confirmation appears on lower timeframes (H4/H1). Traders should watch for rejection wicks, bearish engulfing patterns, or divergence signals to validate entry. - Entry Zone: Within the supply band, ideally near the upper boundary for optimal RR. - Stop-Loss: Above 1.3985 to protect against breakout continuation. - Target Zone: Back toward 1.3760 or mid-range levels, depending on intraday structure. ⚖️ Why This Setup Matters This is a textbook example of price reaching an institutional supply level after a sustained rally. The 100-pip range offers room for tactical entries and exits, and the confluence of ranging structure + supply zone makes this a compelling swing trade candidate.
by ICT_Trader_SB
USD/CAD Bullish Heist Plan – Will You Join the Crew?💼💸 USD/CAD "The Loonie" – Bullish Vault Heist Plan 🕶️📈 "Layer the Entry. Stack the Cash. Escape Clean." 🧠 Mastermind Setup (Thief Trader Blueprint) 🔍 Asset: USD/CAD – The Loonie (Forex Market) 📜 Plan: Bullish — Thief is moving in with precision layering strategy. 📈 Entry Plan: Thief’s not kicking the door once—he’s picking multiple locks! Layer those buy limits for stealth entries: (1.37700) 🏦 | (1.37500) 💰 | (1.37300) 🔑 | (1.37000) 🚪 💡 Add more layers if the vault’s deeper than expected. 🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 🎯 Official Thief SL parked @ 1.37000. But remember—OG thieves adjust SL to match their risk appetite & personal strategy. 🎯 Target: 1.38680 – Grab the loot and vanish! 📢 Heist Intel (Market Context) USD/CAD is eyeing upside momentum, powered by USD strength + oil price plays. Expect pullbacks before the real breakout—perfect for layered infiltration. ⚠️ Thief’s Street Rules: Don’t enter during high-impact news — guards will be on alert. Use trailing stops to protect the loot once in profit. Layer patiently—don’t rush the vault door. 💣 Final Words from the Crew: Every pip is a coin in the bag. Stay disciplined, stay layered, and leave no trace. 🐱‍👤💎 💖 Boost the plan, share with the crew, and let’s make this Loonie Heist legendary. 🚀💼
Long
by The-Thief
Trading Map for USD/CAD — Bullish Layered Entry Strategy🦒 The Loonie Heist: USD/CAD Swing & Day Trade Wealth Map 🚀 Asset: USD/CAD ("The Loonie") Outlook: Bullish 📈 Vibe: Thief-Style Layering Strategy — Sneaky, Smart, and Stylish 😎 Welcome, Ladies and Gentlemen, to the Loonie Heist! This USD/CAD trading plan is designed for the crafty traders out there — our Thief OG's — ready to layer up entries and snatch profits like pros. Let’s break down this stylish, rule-compliant TradingView idea that’s ready to steal the spotlight! ✨ 📜 The Plan: Bullish Breakout with a Thief’s Precision 🕵️‍♂️ Strategy: Thief Layering — A multi-limit order approach for smooth, calculated entries. Entry Levels: Deploy your buy limit orders like a mastermind at: 1.39300 1.39400 1.39500 1.39600 Pro Tip: Feel free to add more layers based on your risk appetite — scale it up, Thief OG style! Stop Loss (SL): Set a sneaky SL at 1.39000 to guard your loot. Note: This is my suggested SL, but you’re the boss of your trades — adjust to your risk tolerance! ⚠️ Take Profit (TP): Aim for 1.40500, just shy of the 1.40600 police barricade (a strong resistance zone with overbought signals and potential traps). Lock in profits and escape like a pro! 🏃‍♂️ Note: TP is your call — take the money when it feels right! 🔍 Why USD/CAD? Key Market Insights 🧠 Market Context: USD/CAD is riding a bullish wave, driven by USD strength and CAD’s sensitivity to oil prices. Keep an eye on macroeconomic data like US Non-Farm Payrolls and Canadian employment reports, as they can sway the Loonie! 📊 Technical Setup: The pair is testing key support levels around 1.39300–1.39600, making it a prime spot for layered entries. The 1.40600 resistance is a historical hurdle, so watch for price action there! 🚨 Thief’s Edge: By layering buy limits, you’re stacking the odds in your favor, catching dips and riding the trend with finesse. 💰 Related Pairs to Watch 👀 Keep these correlated pairs on your radar to spot opportunities and confirm trends: OANDA:USDCHF ($): Positive correlation with USD/CAD due to USD strength. If USD/CHF is climbing, it could signal more upside for USD/CAD. OANDA:AUDUSD ($): Negative correlation with USD/CAD. A falling AUD/USD (stronger USD) often aligns with USD/CAD bullish moves. OANDA:NZDUSD ($): Similar to AUD/USD, this pair’s weakness can support USD/CAD’s bullish case. Key Point: Watch oil prices (WTI, Brent) since CAD is a commodity currency. If oil weakens, USD/CAD may push higher! 🛢️ ⚠️ Risk Management (Thief’s Code) 🛡️ Risk Disclaimer: Trading is a high-stakes game, and this Thief-Style Strategy is for fun and educational purposes. Always manage your risk, set your own SL/TP, and trade responsibly. Don’t chase the market — let it come to you! Position Sizing: Adjust your lot sizes based on your account and risk tolerance. The Thief OG never risks the whole vault! 💸 ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” Disclaimer: This is a Thief-Style Trading Strategy crafted for fun and educational purposes. Trade at your own risk, and always conduct your own analysis. #Hashtags: #USDCAD #Forex #SwingTrading #DayTrading #ThiefStrategy #LoonieHeist #Bullish #TradingView
by The-Thief
USD/CAD Bearish Channel Breakout – Short SetupThis chart is for USD/CAD (30-min timeframe) and shows a clear bearish setup. Here’s the breakdown: --- 1. Pattern Price is moving inside a downward channel (highlighted in pink). Currently near the midline of the channel with potential to retest the upper boundary. The plan here seems to be a sell setup after a small bullish pullback. --- 2. Key Levels Entry Point: 1.39286 (after price pulls back into the blue zone). Stop Loss: 1.39392 (just above the channel and resistance zone – good risk management). Target Point: 1.38880 (near the lower channel boundary, aligning with previous support). --- 3. Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) This setup offers a favorable RRR (roughly 1:3), meaning potential reward is about 3x the risk. --- 4. Bias Bearish bias – expecting continuation of the downtrend after price retests resistance. The market is respecting the descending channel, and unless price breaks above 1.3940, sellers remain in control. --- 5. Confirmation to Watch Look for rejection candles or bearish engulfing in the blue zone before taking entry. If price breaks and closes above 1.3940, this setup becomes invalid (bullish breakout likely). --- ✅ Summary: This is a well-planned short (sell) setup. Wait for price to pull back to 1.3928 – 1.3930, then sell with stop above 1.3940 and target near 1.3888.
Short
by LABA_GOLD_TRADING
4
USD/ CAD) Bullish Analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/CAD (1H timeframe) chart analysis: --- Bullish USD/CAD Setup Support Zone: Price is respecting the support level (yellow box around 1.3920 – 1.3930). Moving Averages: 50 EMA (red) is below current price, providing short-term bullish support. 200 EMA (blue) is also trending upward, confirming overall bullish bias. Market Structure: Higher highs and higher lows suggest continuation to the upside. Projection: Price is expected to bounce from the support zone and push toward the next resistance/target. --- Target Point 1.3998 (near 1.4000 psychological level). This aligns with the measured move projection from the last impulsive rally. Mr SMC Trading point --- Trading Idea Bias: Bullish. Entry Zone: Around 1.3920 – 1.3930 (support level retest). Target: 1.3998. Invalidation: A sustained break below 1.3900 would invalidate the bullish scenario. --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
1
USD/CAD Maintains Bullish ConsolidationUSD/CAD Maintains Bullish Consolidation USD/CAD is showing positive signs and might aim for more gains above 1.3960. Important Takeaways for USD/CAD Analysis Today - USD/CAD rallied above 1.3880 and 1.3920 before the bears appeared. - There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3915 on the hourly chart. USD/CAD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of USD/CAD, the pair formed a strong support base above the 1.3770 level. The US Dollar started a fresh increase above 1.3820 against the Canadian Dollar. The pair cleared the 50-hour simple moving average and climbed above 1.3900. Finally, it tested the 1.3960 zone before the bears appeared. The pair traded below 1.3940 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Initial support is near a connecting bullish trend line at 1.3915. It coincides with the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3768 swing low to the 1.3958 high. A downside break below the trend line might send the pair toward 1.3885. The next major area on the same USD/CAD chart could be the 50% Fib retracement at 1.3865. A close below 1.3865 could push the pair further lower. In the stated case, the bears might aim for a test of 1.3815. On the upside, initial resistance sits near 1.3930 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The main breakout zone could be 1.3960. A clear upside break above 1.3960 could start another steady increase. The next major stop for the bulls might be 1.4000. Any more gains could open the doors for a test of 1.4050. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USDCAD Bulls Building Momentum as Loonie WeakensUSDCAD has bounced strongly from recent lows, with buyers regaining control and pushing the pair toward key resistance levels. The move reflects a combination of weaker Canadian fundamentals and resilient USD demand. With oil prices under pressure and the Bank of Canada leaning dovish, the stage looks set for USD strength to continue pressing higher against the CAD. Current Bias Bullish – price structure favors further upside toward resistance. Key Fundamental Drivers Federal Reserve: While the Fed is moving toward gradual easing, safe-haven demand and inflation risks from tariffs keep the dollar supported. Bank of Canada: Markets price a high probability of another BoC rate cut, reflecting weak labor market data and slowing growth. Oil Prices: Crude remains soft near the low $60s, weighing directly on the CAD as energy exports weaken. Macro Context Interest Rates: The Fed is cautious but still less dovish than the BoC, creating policy divergence that favors USD. Economic Growth: Canada’s GDP contracted in Q2, and labor data confirms rising unemployment; meanwhile, the U.S. economy, though slowing, is relatively stronger. Commodity Flows: Oil remains CAD’s key driver, and falling prices keep downside pressure on the currency. Geopolitics: U.S. tariffs on Canadian auto parts and broader trade uncertainty add extra headwinds for Canada. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp rebound in oil prices or surprisingly hawkish comments from the BoC could reverse the bullish momentum. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada GDP and employment reports U.S. PCE inflation data BoC policy meeting outlook Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDCAD often acts as a lagger to oil moves, with crude leading sentiment on CAD. However, in times of strong USD demand, USDCAD can act as a leader for CAD crosses like CADJPY and AUDCAD. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3738, 1.3668 Resistance Levels: 1.3826, 1.3891 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3668 (below recent swing support) Take Profit (TP): 1.3826 (first target), extension to 1.3891 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDCAD carries a bullish bias, supported by weaker Canadian data, softer oil prices, and dovish BoC expectations. A stop loss below 1.3668 protects against downside risks, while targets at 1.3826 and 1.3891 keep focus on upside continuation. Watch Canadian GDP and employment data closely, alongside U.S. PCE inflation, as key catalysts. The pair remains reactive to oil prices but could act as a leader for CAD crosses if USD strength dominates.
Long
by ultreosforex
USDCAD Bearish Reversal Setup – Supply Zone + Rising Wedge Break1. Chart Pattern A rising wedge/channel (highlighted in red) is clearly forming, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern. The pair has reached the upper boundary of the wedge — a strong resistance area. 2. Supply Zone Marked around the 1.3945 – 1.3981 area. This is a potential reversal zone, where selling pressure may overpower buying interest. The price has just entered this zone, indicating a possible short setup. 3. Trade Setup (Short Position) Entry Point: 1.39431 Stop Loss: 1.39810 – 1.39815 (just above the supply zone) Target Point: 1.36328 📉 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) Risk: ~38 pips (1.3981 - 1.3943) Reward: ~310 pips (1.3943 - 1.3632) RRR: ~8:1 – this is an excellent reward-to-risk ratio, making the trade very attractive if the setup confirms. 4. Trend Context The prior trend before the wedge was bearish. The wedge appears to be a corrective move, which aligns with the idea of a continuation to the downside. 5. Bearish Confirmation Needed Ideally, a bearish candlestick pattern (like a pin bar, engulfing, or evening star) inside the supply zone would provide confirmation before entering the short. 📊 Summary of Strategy Component Value Trade Direction Short Entry Price 1.39431 Stop Loss 1.39810 Take Profit 1.36328 Risk/Reward ~1:8 Setup Type Supply Zone Reversal + Rising Wedge Breakout ✅ Pros High RRR Strong supply zone Rising wedge at resistance Price action supports reversal ⚠️ Risks If price breaks above the supply zone, the setup becomes invalid Wait for confirmation before entering (e.g., bearish candlestick pattern)
Short
by LABA_GOLD_TRADING
4
USD/CAD(20250925)Today's AnalysisMarket News: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, a voting member of the FOMC this year, warned against a series of rate cuts, stating he remains concerned about inflation and is unwilling to support a rate cut at the next meeting. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, however, believes that slowing economic growth and labor force growth, coupled with lower-than-expected inflation, may warrant further rate cuts. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Levels: 1.3877 Support and Resistance Levels: 1.3952 1.3924 1.3906 1.3848 1.3829 1.3801 Trading Strategy: If the market breaks above 1.3906, consider a buy entry, with the first target at 1.3924. If the market breaks below 1.3877, consider a sell entry, with the first target at 1.3848.
Short
by GoldenBigAge