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Usdcadanalysis

USDCAD Bullish Setup | Wait for Break of Structure ConfirmationUSDCAD continues to trend bullish on the higher timeframe 💪. Recently, we’ve seen a healthy retracement, which could provide the groundwork for a potential trend continuation setup. 🔎 On the 30-minute chart, I’m watching closely for a bullish break of market structure followed by a retest of the current range. If that plays out, it could present a solid buy opportunity aligned with the higher-timeframe trend 📈. ⚖️ However, if price fails to break structure and confirm the setup, there’s no trade — patience is key here. We simply wait for the market to show its hand before acting. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
USDCAD Dollar Building as Loonie Struggles with Oil & Weak DataUSDCAD has surged into a key resistance zone, showing resilience even against temporary pullbacks. The pair is benefiting from broad USD strength as the Fed maintains a cautious stance on rate cuts, while the Canadian dollar is weighed down by weaker labor data and softer oil demand. Price action suggests the market is gearing up for another bullish extension if buyers can defend current support. Current Bias Bullish – upward momentum is intact with strong support holding above 1.3930 and potential continuation toward higher resistance. Key Fundamental Drivers USD Strength: Supported by sticky US inflation and a Fed reluctant to accelerate cuts. CAD Weakness: Canada’s job market recovery remains patchy, with unemployment elevated and wage growth cooling. Oil Prices: Recent volatility in crude undermines CAD, which typically benefits from higher energy prices. Macro Context Interest Rate Expectations: Fed holding rates steady longer, BoC facing pressure to ease further if labor market slack persists. Economic Growth Trends: US growth remains steady, Canada showing signs of stagnation. Commodity Flows: Oil fluctuations weigh directly on CAD; weaker demand outlook adds to downside risk. Geopolitical Themes: Global tariff disputes and risk aversion support USD safe-haven flows at the expense of CAD. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp rebound in oil prices or stronger-than-expected Canadian inflation data could strengthen CAD and cap USD gains. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada CPI (Oct 22) will be critical for BoC expectations. US CPI and Fed speeches remain key for dollar direction. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDCAD is more of a lagger, reacting to USD moves and oil-driven CAD flows. It follows broader USD direction but can influence CAD crosses like CADJPY and EURCAD. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3930 (short-term support) 1.3842 (structural support) Resistance Levels: 1.4035 (near-term resistance) 1.4147 (major target) Stop Loss (SL): 1.3842 Take Profit (TP): 1.4147 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDCAD bias is bullish, with buyers defending support and positioning for another leg higher. The fundamental backdrop of a stronger USD and weaker CAD underpins the move, with oil prices adding a bearish weight to the Canadian dollar. The setup looks favorable for continuation toward 1.4147, provided support at 1.3930 holds. Stop loss sits at 1.3842 to protect against a deeper correction, while the take profit is set at 1.4147. The pair remains a lagger, following USD strength and oil dynamics, making US and Canadian inflation data the most important watchpoints ahead.
Long
by ultreosforex
Forex Idea: USDCAD Short Bias – D1 Supply Zone ReactionUSDCAD has been trading in a ranging market over the past few sessions, consolidating after a strong bullish extension that began from the key level 1.3760 on September 25. This upward move has now brought price into a well-defined Supply Zone between 1.3885 and 1.3985, a 100-pip band that historically attracts selling pressure. 📊 Technical Breakdown - Supply Zone (1.3885–1.3985): Price has entered a high-probability reversal area on the Daily chart. This zone has previously acted as a ceiling, and early signs of rejection are emerging. - Ranging Behavior: The market has stalled within this zone, printing indecisive candles and suggesting a potential shift in momentum. This consolidation often precedes a breakout or reversal. - Extension from 1.3760: The bullish leg from this key level has now matured, and the pair may be due for a corrective move or deeper retracement. 🎯 Trade Outlook This setup favors a short bias, especially if bearish confirmation appears on lower timeframes (H4/H1). Traders should watch for rejection wicks, bearish engulfing patterns, or divergence signals to validate entry. - Entry Zone: Within the supply band, ideally near the upper boundary for optimal RR. - Stop-Loss: Above 1.3985 to protect against breakout continuation. - Target Zone: Back toward 1.3760 or mid-range levels, depending on intraday structure. ⚖️ Why This Setup Matters This is a textbook example of price reaching an institutional supply level after a sustained rally. The 100-pip range offers room for tactical entries and exits, and the confluence of ranging structure + supply zone makes this a compelling swing trade candidate.
by ICT_Trader_SB
USD/CAD Bullish Heist Plan – Will You Join the Crew?💼💸 USD/CAD "The Loonie" – Bullish Vault Heist Plan 🕶️📈 "Layer the Entry. Stack the Cash. Escape Clean." 🧠 Mastermind Setup (Thief Trader Blueprint) 🔍 Asset: USD/CAD – The Loonie (Forex Market) 📜 Plan: Bullish — Thief is moving in with precision layering strategy. 📈 Entry Plan: Thief’s not kicking the door once—he’s picking multiple locks! Layer those buy limits for stealth entries: (1.37700) 🏦 | (1.37500) 💰 | (1.37300) 🔑 | (1.37000) 🚪 💡 Add more layers if the vault’s deeper than expected. 🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 🎯 Official Thief SL parked @ 1.37000. But remember—OG thieves adjust SL to match their risk appetite & personal strategy. 🎯 Target: 1.38680 – Grab the loot and vanish! 📢 Heist Intel (Market Context) USD/CAD is eyeing upside momentum, powered by USD strength + oil price plays. Expect pullbacks before the real breakout—perfect for layered infiltration. ⚠️ Thief’s Street Rules: Don’t enter during high-impact news — guards will be on alert. Use trailing stops to protect the loot once in profit. Layer patiently—don’t rush the vault door. 💣 Final Words from the Crew: Every pip is a coin in the bag. Stay disciplined, stay layered, and leave no trace. 🐱‍👤💎 💖 Boost the plan, share with the crew, and let’s make this Loonie Heist legendary. 🚀💼
Long
by The-Thief
USD/CAD Bearish Channel Breakout – Short SetupThis chart is for USD/CAD (30-min timeframe) and shows a clear bearish setup. Here’s the breakdown: --- 1. Pattern Price is moving inside a downward channel (highlighted in pink). Currently near the midline of the channel with potential to retest the upper boundary. The plan here seems to be a sell setup after a small bullish pullback. --- 2. Key Levels Entry Point: 1.39286 (after price pulls back into the blue zone). Stop Loss: 1.39392 (just above the channel and resistance zone – good risk management). Target Point: 1.38880 (near the lower channel boundary, aligning with previous support). --- 3. Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) This setup offers a favorable RRR (roughly 1:3), meaning potential reward is about 3x the risk. --- 4. Bias Bearish bias – expecting continuation of the downtrend after price retests resistance. The market is respecting the descending channel, and unless price breaks above 1.3940, sellers remain in control. --- 5. Confirmation to Watch Look for rejection candles or bearish engulfing in the blue zone before taking entry. If price breaks and closes above 1.3940, this setup becomes invalid (bullish breakout likely). --- ✅ Summary: This is a well-planned short (sell) setup. Wait for price to pull back to 1.3928 – 1.3930, then sell with stop above 1.3940 and target near 1.3888.
Short
by LABA_GOLD_TRADING
4
USD/ CAD) Bullish Analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/CAD (1H timeframe) chart analysis: --- Bullish USD/CAD Setup Support Zone: Price is respecting the support level (yellow box around 1.3920 – 1.3930). Moving Averages: 50 EMA (red) is below current price, providing short-term bullish support. 200 EMA (blue) is also trending upward, confirming overall bullish bias. Market Structure: Higher highs and higher lows suggest continuation to the upside. Projection: Price is expected to bounce from the support zone and push toward the next resistance/target. --- Target Point 1.3998 (near 1.4000 psychological level). This aligns with the measured move projection from the last impulsive rally. Mr SMC Trading point --- Trading Idea Bias: Bullish. Entry Zone: Around 1.3920 – 1.3930 (support level retest). Target: 1.3998. Invalidation: A sustained break below 1.3900 would invalidate the bullish scenario. --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
1
USD/CAD Maintains Bullish ConsolidationUSD/CAD Maintains Bullish Consolidation USD/CAD is showing positive signs and might aim for more gains above 1.3960. Important Takeaways for USD/CAD Analysis Today - USD/CAD rallied above 1.3880 and 1.3920 before the bears appeared. - There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3915 on the hourly chart. USD/CAD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of USD/CAD, the pair formed a strong support base above the 1.3770 level. The US Dollar started a fresh increase above 1.3820 against the Canadian Dollar. The pair cleared the 50-hour simple moving average and climbed above 1.3900. Finally, it tested the 1.3960 zone before the bears appeared. The pair traded below 1.3940 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Initial support is near a connecting bullish trend line at 1.3915. It coincides with the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3768 swing low to the 1.3958 high. A downside break below the trend line might send the pair toward 1.3885. The next major area on the same USD/CAD chart could be the 50% Fib retracement at 1.3865. A close below 1.3865 could push the pair further lower. In the stated case, the bears might aim for a test of 1.3815. On the upside, initial resistance sits near 1.3930 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The main breakout zone could be 1.3960. A clear upside break above 1.3960 could start another steady increase. The next major stop for the bulls might be 1.4000. Any more gains could open the doors for a test of 1.4050. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USDCAD Bulls Building Momentum as Loonie WeakensUSDCAD has bounced strongly from recent lows, with buyers regaining control and pushing the pair toward key resistance levels. The move reflects a combination of weaker Canadian fundamentals and resilient USD demand. With oil prices under pressure and the Bank of Canada leaning dovish, the stage looks set for USD strength to continue pressing higher against the CAD. Current Bias Bullish – price structure favors further upside toward resistance. Key Fundamental Drivers Federal Reserve: While the Fed is moving toward gradual easing, safe-haven demand and inflation risks from tariffs keep the dollar supported. Bank of Canada: Markets price a high probability of another BoC rate cut, reflecting weak labor market data and slowing growth. Oil Prices: Crude remains soft near the low $60s, weighing directly on the CAD as energy exports weaken. Macro Context Interest Rates: The Fed is cautious but still less dovish than the BoC, creating policy divergence that favors USD. Economic Growth: Canada’s GDP contracted in Q2, and labor data confirms rising unemployment; meanwhile, the U.S. economy, though slowing, is relatively stronger. Commodity Flows: Oil remains CAD’s key driver, and falling prices keep downside pressure on the currency. Geopolitics: U.S. tariffs on Canadian auto parts and broader trade uncertainty add extra headwinds for Canada. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp rebound in oil prices or surprisingly hawkish comments from the BoC could reverse the bullish momentum. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada GDP and employment reports U.S. PCE inflation data BoC policy meeting outlook Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDCAD often acts as a lagger to oil moves, with crude leading sentiment on CAD. However, in times of strong USD demand, USDCAD can act as a leader for CAD crosses like CADJPY and AUDCAD. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3738, 1.3668 Resistance Levels: 1.3826, 1.3891 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3668 (below recent swing support) Take Profit (TP): 1.3826 (first target), extension to 1.3891 Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDCAD carries a bullish bias, supported by weaker Canadian data, softer oil prices, and dovish BoC expectations. A stop loss below 1.3668 protects against downside risks, while targets at 1.3826 and 1.3891 keep focus on upside continuation. Watch Canadian GDP and employment data closely, alongside U.S. PCE inflation, as key catalysts. The pair remains reactive to oil prices but could act as a leader for CAD crosses if USD strength dominates.
Long
by ultreosforex
USDCAD Bearish Reversal Setup – Supply Zone + Rising Wedge Break1. Chart Pattern A rising wedge/channel (highlighted in red) is clearly forming, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern. The pair has reached the upper boundary of the wedge — a strong resistance area. 2. Supply Zone Marked around the 1.3945 – 1.3981 area. This is a potential reversal zone, where selling pressure may overpower buying interest. The price has just entered this zone, indicating a possible short setup. 3. Trade Setup (Short Position) Entry Point: 1.39431 Stop Loss: 1.39810 – 1.39815 (just above the supply zone) Target Point: 1.36328 📉 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) Risk: ~38 pips (1.3981 - 1.3943) Reward: ~310 pips (1.3943 - 1.3632) RRR: ~8:1 – this is an excellent reward-to-risk ratio, making the trade very attractive if the setup confirms. 4. Trend Context The prior trend before the wedge was bearish. The wedge appears to be a corrective move, which aligns with the idea of a continuation to the downside. 5. Bearish Confirmation Needed Ideally, a bearish candlestick pattern (like a pin bar, engulfing, or evening star) inside the supply zone would provide confirmation before entering the short. 📊 Summary of Strategy Component Value Trade Direction Short Entry Price 1.39431 Stop Loss 1.39810 Take Profit 1.36328 Risk/Reward ~1:8 Setup Type Supply Zone Reversal + Rising Wedge Breakout ✅ Pros High RRR Strong supply zone Rising wedge at resistance Price action supports reversal ⚠️ Risks If price breaks above the supply zone, the setup becomes invalid Wait for confirmation before entering (e.g., bearish candlestick pattern)
Short
by LABA_GOLD_TRADING
4
USD/CAD(20250925)Today's AnalysisMarket News: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, a voting member of the FOMC this year, warned against a series of rate cuts, stating he remains concerned about inflation and is unwilling to support a rate cut at the next meeting. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, however, believes that slowing economic growth and labor force growth, coupled with lower-than-expected inflation, may warrant further rate cuts. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Levels: 1.3877 Support and Resistance Levels: 1.3952 1.3924 1.3906 1.3848 1.3829 1.3801 Trading Strategy: If the market breaks above 1.3906, consider a buy entry, with the first target at 1.3924. If the market breaks below 1.3877, consider a sell entry, with the first target at 1.3848.
Short
by GoldenBigAge
USDCAD(20250923)Today's AnalysisMarket News: Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic: There is currently little reason to cut interest rates further, and only one rate cut is expected this year. Musallem: There is limited room for further rate cuts. If inflation risks increase, further rate cuts will not be supported. Hammak: We should be very cautious when lifting policy restrictions. My estimate of the neutral interest rate is on the higher side. Milan: I believe the appropriate interest rate is in the mid-2% range. I do not support adjusting the 2% inflation target at this time. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Levels: 1.3806 Support and Resistance Levels: 1.3866 1.3844 1.3829 1.3783 1.3768 1.3746 Trading Strategy: If the price breaks above 1.3829, consider buying, with the first target at 1.3844. If the price breaks below 1.3806, consider selling, with the first target at 1.3783
Long
by GoldenBigAge
USDCAD Analysis – Market Recovery and Bullish OutlookUSDCAD Analysis – Market Recovery and Bullish Outlook USDCAD Market Report USDCAD is emerging from a completed downside leg into a constructive recovery cycle. The prior bearish momentum created imbalance, but recent order flow shows that liquidity has been absorbed, allowing buyers to regain control. The transition reflects a clean structural shift, where corrective pressure is evolving into directional expansion. The sequence of price action highlights disciplined progression: accumulation at lower levels, controlled impulsive candles, and measured volatility. This behavior signals that the market is not in exhaustion but in the early stages of a potential bullish leg. The rotation from decline into expansion suggests renewed confidence from larger market participants. Looking ahead, the pair remains positioned for continuation. The rhythm of correction followed by orderly advancement underlines a resilient structure, with market dynamics favoring sustained upside development in the medium term.
Long
by XAU_EMPIRE
Double Blow for the USD/CAD MarketDouble Blow for the USD/CAD Market Today, the USD/CAD market faces a “double blow” from central banks: → At 16:45 GMT+3, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision. The rate is expected to be cut from 2.75% to 2.50%. → At 21:00 GMT+3, the Federal Reserve will follow with its own rate announcement. Both events will be accompanied by statements from the central bank chairmen on future outlooks, and the USD/CAD market is likely to experience heightened volatility today. Technical Analysis of the USD/CAD Chart When analysing the USD/CAD chart earlier this month, we noted the formation of a symmetrical narrowing triangle (a sign of balance between supply and demand), bounded by: → a long-term descending channel (red), which has been in place since early February; → a short-term channel (blue), shaped by price fluctuations since mid-summer. At that time, we suggested that supply and demand forces would keep USD/CAD in a temporary state of equilibrium until today. Since then: → the price has reversed sharply from the upper boundary of the triangle (marked with an arrow); → on the eve of key announcements, the pair is attempting to consolidate below the lower boundary, signalling bearish pressure (in other words, a shift in balance in favour of supply). Key observations: → the aggressive nature of the September support breakout (S); → the decline towards the critical 1.3725 level, which has acted as support since August. Given the above, we could assume that the market is leaning bearish. Today’s announcements could trigger a downward impulse in USD/CAD – in this context, the chart may be interpreted through: → a potential breakout of the bearish flag pattern (formed by the blue channel); → prospects for the resumption of the broader downtrend within the red channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
PERFECT USDCAD SHORT ENTRYI have a weekly short bias on FX:USDCAD , we can see a previous strong rejection of the weekly 50ema, and currently price is rejecting the level again. Moving into next week this gives a bearish bias. Now moving down to the daily timeframe there looks to be a clear head and shoulders structure forming, with the previous days candle showing a bearish engulfing bar from a liquidity zone, I am bearish, and looking for a lower timeframe entry. Now on the lower 1h timeframe I am seeing a bos to the downside with a double pin rejection of ema. # This break of trend, with all timeframes aligned, gives a perfect short setup imo. Give a follow for more:)
Short
by Euan7rTrader
2
USDCAD Breakout Watch: Bulls Eye 1.3920 After Retesting SupportUSDCAD is coiling for a potential breakout, with buyers defending the 1.3820–1.3840 support zone and eyeing higher levels. The chart shows repeated higher lows, and fundamentals are aligning in favor of the dollar as the Canadian side faces pressure from weaker data and oil volatility. The setup is building momentum for a push toward 1.3920 if the breakout materializes. Current Bias Bullish – USD strength and Canadian headwinds support upside continuation. Key Fundamental Drivers Federal Reserve: Slower pace of cuts compared to expectations keeps USD attractive. Bank of Canada: Market pricing leans heavily toward further easing after weak jobs data and slowing growth. Oil Prices: WTI struggles below $65, weighing on CAD’s commodity-linked appeal. Trade balance: Canada’s recent deficits add to pressure on CAD. Macro Context Interest rates: Fed cautious on cuts; BoC more dovish, widening policy divergence. Economic growth: Canadian economy showing contraction in GDP and weaker labor data, while US growth remains firmer. Commodity flows: Oil demand remains uncertain, keeping CAD on the defensive. Geopolitical: Trade tensions and US tariffs add to USD safe-haven appeal, further denting CAD sentiment. Primary Risk to the Trend A strong oil rebound or a surprisingly hawkish BoC stance could support CAD and limit upside in USDCAD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Canada CPI and BoC decision – key for confirming further CAD weakness. US CPI and Fed communication – will guide whether USD keeps its bid. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDCAD often acts as a lagger to broad USD moves (particularly following EURUSD and DXY). However, it can lead CAD crosses like CADJPY and AUDCAD when oil-driven moves accelerate. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3820, 1.3785 Resistance Levels: 1.3880, 1.3920 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3785 (below structural support) Take Profit (TP): 1.3920 (major resistance zone) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDCAD is consolidating with buyers eyeing an upside breakout. The bias remains bullish, with SL at 1.3785 protecting against downside failure and TP at 1.3920 offering a clean upside target. The divergence between a cautious Fed and a dovish BoC, combined with oil weakness, tilts the balance in favor of USD strength. The key watchpoints are Canada’s CPI and BoC policy direction, which could either accelerate the breakout or disrupt the setup.
Long
by ultreosforex
1
USD/CAD) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/CAD in the 4H timeframe. Here’s the behind the analysis: --- Key Technical Points: 1. FVG (Fair Value Gap): The yellow box around 1.3820–1.3830 is a fair value gap where price is expected to retrace before continuing upward. Acts as a short-term demand zone. 2. MSS (Market Structure Shift): The chart marks a bullish MSS, meaning structure has flipped from bearish to bullish. Confirms upside continuation bias. 3. EMA 200 (Dynamic Support): EMA 200 sits around 1.3797, below current price. Reinforces the bullish bias as long as price stays above it. 4. Target Point: Upside target is 1.3925, which aligns with previous highs / liquidity zone. Chart suggests accumulation → retrace → bullish expansion into that level. --- Trade Idea Summary: Bias: Bullish Scenario: 1. Price may retrace into the FVG zone (1.3820–1.3830). 2. Find support there and bounce. 3. Continue higher toward 1.3925 target point. Entry Idea: Buy near the FVG demand zone (with bullish confirmation). Target: 1.3925 Stop-Loss: Below the EMA / FVG (~1.3790). Mr SMC Trading point --- Conclusion: This setup favors buying dips into the FVG zone as long as price respects the EMA 200. The target is 1.3925, making this a bullish continuation play after the recent market structure shift. --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
8
USDCAD near breakdown zone; Bearish pressure buildsUSDCAD near breakdown zone; Bearish pressure builds On Sept. 11, USDCAD tested resistance at 1.3891–1.3904 but failed to break higher, reversing lower after U.S. jobless claims and CPI data. The pair now hovers near 1.38350–1.3840, supported by the 100-hour MA at 1.3859. This zone is key: holding above favors dip-buyers, while a break below 1.3812 would tilt bias bearish. By Sept. 12, the dollar edged higher after the prior day’s drop, as U.S. jobless claims jumped to a four-year high while inflation rose modestly. Markets remain focused on a Fed cut next week, with futures fully pricing a 25-bps move on Sept. 17 and reduced odds of a 50-bps cut.
Short
by ProfessorSingapore
Canadian Dollar Falls After Labour Market Data ReleaseCanadian Dollar Falls After Labour Market Data Release On Friday, disappointing figures showed that in August the Canadian economy lost 65,500 jobs (the forecast had been for an increase of 10,000), while the unemployment rate rose to 7.1%. This is the highest level of unemployment since May 2016, excluding the pandemic period. It is believed that: → the deterioration in the labour market (primarily in manufacturing) is a consequence of the trade war with the United States; → the fall in employment in Canada has increased the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will resume its monetary easing campaign. As a result, the CAD weakened sharply against other currencies. However, the depreciation against the US dollar was less pronounced, as the USD itself is under pressure from various factors. Technical Analysis of USD/CAD From a long-term perspective, the USD/CAD pair remains within a downward trend, highlighted by a red descending channel. From a medium-term perspective, since July the rate has risen from the 1.3550–1.3600 support zone, forming an ascending channel (shown in blue). Price action (indicated by arrows) shows that: → sellers are aggressive, pushing the price down from the upper boundary of the red channel; → buyers are aggressive, driving the price up from the lower boundary of the blue channel. Its median line acts as resistance. This is compressing USD/CAD fluctuations into a pattern resembling a symmetrical narrowing triangle (shown in black), with recent overbought (1) and oversold (2) conditions on the RSI marking price reversals back into the triangle from its boundaries. Thus, we could assume that supply and demand forces will keep USD/CAD in a state of temporary balance while awaiting key news next week: → 16 September – Canada CPI report; → 17 September – interest rate decisions from both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
USDCAD Double Top Signals a Potential BreakdownUSDCAD pair is testing a critical resistance area near 1.3830 after a strong rebound. But the price structure is beginning to flash signs of exhaustion. With repeated rejections and a clear double-top pattern forming, the setup favors a bearish move. If momentum turns, we could see a meaningful correction toward the 1.3730 support zone, with deeper downside risk into mid-September. Current Bias Bearish rejection at resistance, structure favors downside continuation. Key Fundamental Drivers Canada: Weak August jobs report (unemployment 7.1%, wages cooling) raised BoC cut expectations, pressuring CAD. But oil prices (Brent ~$65) limit the downside risk, giving CAD some commodity support. U.S.: Weaker jobs (+142k NFP, unemployment 4.3%) keeps Fed cuts on the table, capping USD upside. Core PCE sticky at 2.9%, but inflation trend is moderating. Macro Context Interest Rates: Fed expected to cut in coming months; BoC markets price ~90% chance of a September cut. Economic Growth: U.S. slowing but still resilient, Canada contracting (Q2 GDP −0.4% q/q). Commodities: Oil’s soft rebound provides CAD with some stability. Geopolitics: Trade tensions (U.S. tariffs, China-Russia bond coordination) keep USD supported as a defensive hedge. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp oil sell-off would weaken CAD and trigger USD/CAD upside. U.S. CPI surprise to the upside could reprice Fed expectations, boosting USD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event U.S. CPI (this week): Will decide Fed cut timing. BoC September rate decision: High probability of a cut, market focus on forward guidance. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD is typically a lagger — following USD direction (via Fed expectations) and CAD flows (via oil). It often mirrors oil price action and diverges from USD/JPY, reflecting risk sentiment shifts. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3732, 1.3585 Resistance Levels: 1.3830, 1.3875 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3875 Take Profit (TP): 1.3732 (first), 1.3585 (extended) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is leaning bearish after failing to break cleanly above 1.3830. Fundamentals point to a tug-of-war between dovish BoC expectations and weaker U.S. data, but the chart structure favors downside into 1.3732 and potentially 1.3585. My stop loss sits above 1.3875 to protect against a breakout. Watch U.S. CPI as the key driver: a hotter print could revive USD strength, while a softer read could accelerate CAD gains. Oil’s stability remains a secondary but important factor for CAD resilience.
Short
by ultreosforex
1
USD/CAD – Bulls Eyeing a Bounce from Key Demand ZoneAfter an aggressive correction from the 1.3920 highs, USD/CAD has now landed on a heavy demand zone near 1.3720 – 1.3740. This area has proven to be a launchpad for rallies in recent weeks, and price is once again testing buyers’ conviction. With both technical structure and macro fundamentals in play, this zone could determine the next major swing. Current Bias Bullish bias as long as 1.3720 holds, with upside potential toward 1.3818 and 1.3920 supply. Key Fundamental Drivers USD: Supported by sticky inflation (Core PCE 2.9% y/y) and resilient consumer spending (+0.5% m/m). Fed rate cut expectations have softened, keeping the dollar supported. CAD: Weighed down by weaker Canadian GDP (Q2 annualized -1.6%, q/q -0.4%) and slowing momentum in domestic growth. Oil remains weak near $64, offering little support to the loonie. Macro Context Rates: The Fed remains cautious with cuts, while the BoC faces pressure from economic contraction. Interest rate divergence favors the USD. Growth Trends: US growth remains firmer compared to Canada’s slowdown. Commodities: Oil’s weakness is a drag on CAD, making the currency vulnerable. Geopolitics: Ongoing tariff disputes and Middle East energy risks keep USD demand steady as a safe haven, further weighing on CAD. Primary Risk to the Trend A deeper selloff in USD on unexpected Fed dovishness or a sharp rebound in oil prices (driven by geopolitical shocks or supply cuts) could strengthen CAD and invalidate the bullish setup. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US ISM PMI & NFP (this week): Key drivers for Fed policy path. Canada Jobs Report (Friday): Critical for CAD sentiment after the weak GDP print. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD tends to lag oil and broader USD moves. It often follows the dollar’s momentum, while oil price shocks can lead moves on CAD. Currently, the pair is USD-led, making it more reactive to Fed data than Canadian domestic flows. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3720 – 1.3740 (demand zone), 1.3660. Resistance Levels: 1.3818 (mid-resistance), 1.3918 – 1.3925 (major supply). Stop Loss (SL): 1.3650 (below demand zone invalidation). Take Profit (TP): 1.3818 (first target), 1.3920 (extended target). Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is sitting at a key demand zone around 1.3720 – 1.3740, where buyers need to defend the trend. The bias remains bullish above this level, with upside targets at 1.3818 and 1.3920. A break below 1.3650 would invalidate the long setup and expose further downside. With US data in focus and CAD weighed down by weak GDP and soft oil prices, the pair is more likely to follow USD momentum in the near term. Traders should watch NFP and Canada’s jobs data closely, as these will dictate whether this bounce carries to new highs or fades into deeper consolidation.
Long
by ultreosforex
8