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Usdcadsetup

Double Blow for the USD/CAD MarketDouble Blow for the USD/CAD Market Today, the USD/CAD market faces a “double blow” from central banks: → At 16:45 GMT+3, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision. The rate is expected to be cut from 2.75% to 2.50%. → At 21:00 GMT+3, the Federal Reserve will follow with its own rate announcement. Both events will be accompanied by statements from the central bank chairmen on future outlooks, and the USD/CAD market is likely to experience heightened volatility today. Technical Analysis of the USD/CAD Chart When analysing the USD/CAD chart earlier this month, we noted the formation of a symmetrical narrowing triangle (a sign of balance between supply and demand), bounded by: → a long-term descending channel (red), which has been in place since early February; → a short-term channel (blue), shaped by price fluctuations since mid-summer. At that time, we suggested that supply and demand forces would keep USD/CAD in a temporary state of equilibrium until today. Since then: → the price has reversed sharply from the upper boundary of the triangle (marked with an arrow); → on the eve of key announcements, the pair is attempting to consolidate below the lower boundary, signalling bearish pressure (in other words, a shift in balance in favour of supply). Key observations: → the aggressive nature of the September support breakout (S); → the decline towards the critical 1.3725 level, which has acted as support since August. Given the above, we could assume that the market is leaning bearish. Today’s announcements could trigger a downward impulse in USD/CAD – in this context, the chart may be interpreted through: → a potential breakout of the bearish flag pattern (formed by the blue channel); → prospects for the resumption of the broader downtrend within the red channel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
PERFECT USDCAD SHORT ENTRYI have a weekly short bias on FX:USDCAD , we can see a previous strong rejection of the weekly 50ema, and currently price is rejecting the level again. Moving into next week this gives a bearish bias. Now moving down to the daily timeframe there looks to be a clear head and shoulders structure forming, with the previous days candle showing a bearish engulfing bar from a liquidity zone, I am bearish, and looking for a lower timeframe entry. Now on the lower 1h timeframe I am seeing a bos to the downside with a double pin rejection of ema. # This break of trend, with all timeframes aligned, gives a perfect short setup imo. Give a follow for more:)
Short
by Euan7rTrader
2
USDCAD Double Top Signals a Potential BreakdownUSDCAD pair is testing a critical resistance area near 1.3830 after a strong rebound. But the price structure is beginning to flash signs of exhaustion. With repeated rejections and a clear double-top pattern forming, the setup favors a bearish move. If momentum turns, we could see a meaningful correction toward the 1.3730 support zone, with deeper downside risk into mid-September. Current Bias Bearish rejection at resistance, structure favors downside continuation. Key Fundamental Drivers Canada: Weak August jobs report (unemployment 7.1%, wages cooling) raised BoC cut expectations, pressuring CAD. But oil prices (Brent ~$65) limit the downside risk, giving CAD some commodity support. U.S.: Weaker jobs (+142k NFP, unemployment 4.3%) keeps Fed cuts on the table, capping USD upside. Core PCE sticky at 2.9%, but inflation trend is moderating. Macro Context Interest Rates: Fed expected to cut in coming months; BoC markets price ~90% chance of a September cut. Economic Growth: U.S. slowing but still resilient, Canada contracting (Q2 GDP −0.4% q/q). Commodities: Oil’s soft rebound provides CAD with some stability. Geopolitics: Trade tensions (U.S. tariffs, China-Russia bond coordination) keep USD supported as a defensive hedge. Primary Risk to the Trend A sharp oil sell-off would weaken CAD and trigger USD/CAD upside. U.S. CPI surprise to the upside could reprice Fed expectations, boosting USD. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event U.S. CPI (this week): Will decide Fed cut timing. BoC September rate decision: High probability of a cut, market focus on forward guidance. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD is typically a lagger — following USD direction (via Fed expectations) and CAD flows (via oil). It often mirrors oil price action and diverges from USD/JPY, reflecting risk sentiment shifts. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3732, 1.3585 Resistance Levels: 1.3830, 1.3875 Stop Loss (SL): 1.3875 Take Profit (TP): 1.3732 (first), 1.3585 (extended) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is leaning bearish after failing to break cleanly above 1.3830. Fundamentals point to a tug-of-war between dovish BoC expectations and weaker U.S. data, but the chart structure favors downside into 1.3732 and potentially 1.3585. My stop loss sits above 1.3875 to protect against a breakout. Watch U.S. CPI as the key driver: a hotter print could revive USD strength, while a softer read could accelerate CAD gains. Oil’s stability remains a secondary but important factor for CAD resilience.
Short
by ultreosforex
1
USD/CAD – Bulls Eyeing a Bounce from Key Demand ZoneAfter an aggressive correction from the 1.3920 highs, USD/CAD has now landed on a heavy demand zone near 1.3720 – 1.3740. This area has proven to be a launchpad for rallies in recent weeks, and price is once again testing buyers’ conviction. With both technical structure and macro fundamentals in play, this zone could determine the next major swing. Current Bias Bullish bias as long as 1.3720 holds, with upside potential toward 1.3818 and 1.3920 supply. Key Fundamental Drivers USD: Supported by sticky inflation (Core PCE 2.9% y/y) and resilient consumer spending (+0.5% m/m). Fed rate cut expectations have softened, keeping the dollar supported. CAD: Weighed down by weaker Canadian GDP (Q2 annualized -1.6%, q/q -0.4%) and slowing momentum in domestic growth. Oil remains weak near $64, offering little support to the loonie. Macro Context Rates: The Fed remains cautious with cuts, while the BoC faces pressure from economic contraction. Interest rate divergence favors the USD. Growth Trends: US growth remains firmer compared to Canada’s slowdown. Commodities: Oil’s weakness is a drag on CAD, making the currency vulnerable. Geopolitics: Ongoing tariff disputes and Middle East energy risks keep USD demand steady as a safe haven, further weighing on CAD. Primary Risk to the Trend A deeper selloff in USD on unexpected Fed dovishness or a sharp rebound in oil prices (driven by geopolitical shocks or supply cuts) could strengthen CAD and invalidate the bullish setup. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US ISM PMI & NFP (this week): Key drivers for Fed policy path. Canada Jobs Report (Friday): Critical for CAD sentiment after the weak GDP print. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD tends to lag oil and broader USD moves. It often follows the dollar’s momentum, while oil price shocks can lead moves on CAD. Currently, the pair is USD-led, making it more reactive to Fed data than Canadian domestic flows. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3720 – 1.3740 (demand zone), 1.3660. Resistance Levels: 1.3818 (mid-resistance), 1.3918 – 1.3925 (major supply). Stop Loss (SL): 1.3650 (below demand zone invalidation). Take Profit (TP): 1.3818 (first target), 1.3920 (extended target). Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is sitting at a key demand zone around 1.3720 – 1.3740, where buyers need to defend the trend. The bias remains bullish above this level, with upside targets at 1.3818 and 1.3920. A break below 1.3650 would invalidate the long setup and expose further downside. With US data in focus and CAD weighed down by weak GDP and soft oil prices, the pair is more likely to follow USD momentum in the near term. Traders should watch NFP and Canada’s jobs data closely, as these will dictate whether this bounce carries to new highs or fades into deeper consolidation.
Long
by ultreosforex
8
The Loonie Trap! Is USD/CAD About to Explode Higher?💵 USD/CAD "The Loonie" Forex Bank Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) 🏦🐱‍👤 🌟Dear Ladies & Gentlemen – Thief OG’s & Market Robbers!🌟 The vault is loaded, and today’s heist target is none other than USD/CAD "The Loonie". We play it the Thief way – patient, layered, and ready to strike only when the breakout lights the fuse ⚡ 📈 Entry (Pending Breakout Plan) Breakout Level: 1.38700 ⚡ "Wait for the alarm – the heist starts only when the vault door cracks!" Layered Buy Limit Entries: (Thief Strategy DCA) 1.38600 1.38400 1.38200 (You can add more layers based on your style – Thief never limits the tools of a robbery!) 📌 Pro Tip: Set an Alarm on TradingView so you’ll know exactly when the breakout hits – thieves don’t wait blindly. 🛑 Stop Loss (Thief-Style Safety) SL only after breakout + pullback confirmation 🚨 My vault lock suggestion: 1.37900 But remember, Thief OG’s – SL is YOUR call. Adjust based on risk, layering size & style. Don’t just follow me blindly – no one tells a thief how to escape 😉 🎯 Take Profit (The Escape Plan) Electric shock resistance zone ahead – bail out before getting fried ⚡ TP @ 1.39700 💰 But again – you choose when to grab the bag & vanish 🏃💨. Thief rules: steal, escape, disappear! 📰 Thief Notes Strategy: Layered Buy Orders ✅ Style: Swing/Day Trade 🕰️ Target: Quick smash-and-grab before resistance cops arrive 🚓 Risk: Always manage YOUR loot. 💖 Dear Thief OG’s, if you vibe with this USD/CAD Loonie Bank Heist Plan, hit the Boost Button 🚀. The more we boost, the stronger our robbery crew becomes 🏆💪💵 👉 Stay tuned – next heist drops soon 🤑
Long
by The-Thief
Is the USDCAD Rally Overextended Into Key Resistance Levels?The USDCAD is currently testing a formidable resistance zone following a period of strong bullish momentum. The primary catalyst for this upward repricing has been a clear divergence in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is maintaining its hawkish bias, supported by persistent U.S. inflation data, which provides underlying strength to the dollar. 🦅 Conversely, moderating CPI in Canada has allowed the Bank of Canada to adopt a more dovish tone, creating a fundamental headwind for the loonie. 🍁 From a technical standpoint, the rally appears overextended, with momentum indicators suggesting the pair is now in overbought territory. 🛑 We're observing signs of price exhaustion as it challenges this key multi-month resistance level. Institutional sentiment is consequently shifting towards caution. The key strategic question now is whether we see a confirmed breakout on significant volume or a mean reversion scenario. At these levels, the risk-reward profile for new long positions is becoming unfavorable without further confirmation. I'm monitoring for either a decisive close above this zone or for signs of a corrective pullback. Stay sharp.
by fxtraderanthony
USD/CAD: Inverse Head & Shoulders Playing OutHello guys. The chart is showing a clear inverse head & shoulders pattern, which often signals a potential bullish reversal. Price is now pushing above the neckline, suggesting momentum is shifting to the upside. As long as buyers hold this breakout, there’s room for continuation toward the 1.3853 and 1.3868 resistance levels. Key Levels: Support: 1.3720 (pattern invalidation if broken) Breakout Zone: 1.3800–1.3820 (neckline retest area) Targets: 1.3853 → 1.3868
Long
by melikatrader94
9
USD/CAD Bullish Bias Supported by COT Data and Seasonal Trends🗓 Monthly Chart Overview • Price Inefficiency Zone: There's a clear imbalance between 1.40165 and 1.41248, suggesting a potential magnet for price. A retracement to at least the 50% level of this inefficiency could be expected. • Bullish Structure: Price has formed a bullish order block and is currently retracing, which often precedes a continuation move upward. • This setup hints at accumulation before a bullish expansion. 📆 Weekly Chart Insights • Inefficiency Filled: Price has filled previous inefficiencies, showing healthy market structure. • Liquidity Behavior: We've seen price sweep lows, then begin sweeping highs, while respecting bullish blocks—a strong indication of a shift in directional intent. • This behavior supports the idea that USD/CAD is preparing for a bullish continuation. 📅 Daily Chart Momentum • Aggressive Breakout: After a period of consolidation, price broke out aggressively to the upside, confirming bullish momentum. • Structure: The daily chart maintains a bullish structure, reinforcing the higher timeframe bias. 💹 Commitment of Traders (COT) Data • USD Positioning: The U.S. Dollar is showing net buying interest, supporting strength. • CAD Positioning: The Canadian Dollar is net bearish on average when compared to last year’s data. • This divergence in sentiment adds confluence to a bullish USD/CAD bias. 📊 Seasonal Trends • Historically, USD/CAD tends to rise from August through November, with September, October, and especially November being the most bullish months. • This seasonal tendency aligns with the current technical and fundamental setup. 🏦 Macro Considerations • Interest Rates: Keep a close eye on central bank rate decisions and forward guidance, as they can significantly impact USD/CAD volatility and direction. 🔍 Summary USD/CAD shows strong bullish potential across monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes. Technical structure, COT data, and seasonal trends all point toward a continuation to the upside. A revisit to the inefficiency zone around 1.4060–1.4120 could be a key target in the coming months.
Long
by Wiiso
USDCAD 4-Hour Analysis – Bulls and Bears Battle for ControlCurrent Price: 1.37706 Timeframe: 4 Hours Technical Indicators Overview SMA (9-period): Price is hovering around the short-term moving average, signaling indecision in momentum. RSI (14): Currently near the 50 level, showing a neutral momentum—neither overbought nor oversold. Key Resistance: 1.3800 – A psychological and technical barrier tested multiple times. Key Support: 1.3700 – A level where buyers previously stepped in to prevent further decline. Price Action Summary USDCAD recently saw a strong bullish move towards the 1.3900 area but quickly reversed, pulling back below the 1.3800 mark. Since then, price action has been choppy, suggesting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. On the 4H chart, the SMA 9 is acting as a dynamic pivot, with candles frequently crossing above and below it. This behavior often precedes a breakout, but direction confirmation is still lacking. RSI Insights The RSI remains neutral, around 50, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressures. A move above 60 could invite bullish momentum, while a drop below 40 may trigger further selling. Potential Scenarios Bullish Breakout: If price breaks and closes above 1.3800, the next upside target could be 1.3850–1.3900, where previous highs lie. Bearish Reversal: Failure to hold above 1.3750 could open the door for a move towards 1.3700, and below that, 1.3650. Conclusion USDCAD is in a consolidation phase, awaiting a catalyst for a decisive breakout. Traders should watch the 1.3800 resistance and 1.3750 support for clues on the next directional move.
Short
by forexinworld
USD/CAD Bullish Heist Plan – Will You Join the Crew?💼💸 USD/CAD "The Loonie" – Bullish Vault Heist Plan 🕶️📈 "Layer the Entry. Stack the Cash. Escape Clean." 🧠 Mastermind Setup (Thief Trader Blueprint) 🔍 Asset: USD/CAD – The Loonie (Forex Market) 📜 Plan: Bullish — Thief is moving in with precision layering strategy. 📈 Entry Plan: Thief’s not kicking the door once—he’s picking multiple locks! Layer those buy limits for stealth entries: (1.37700) 🏦 | (1.37500) 💰 | (1.37300) 🔑 | (1.37000) 🚪 💡 Add more layers if the vault’s deeper than expected. 🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 🎯 Official Thief SL parked @ 1.37000. But remember—OG thieves adjust SL to match their risk appetite & personal strategy. 🎯 Target: 1.38680 – Grab the loot and vanish! 📢 Heist Intel (Market Context) USD/CAD is eyeing upside momentum, powered by USD strength + oil price plays. Expect pullbacks before the real breakout—perfect for layered infiltration. ⚠️ Thief’s Street Rules: Don’t enter during high-impact news — guards will be on alert. Use trailing stops to protect the loot once in profit. Layer patiently—don’t rush the vault door. 💣 Final Words from the Crew: Every pip is a coin in the bag. Stay disciplined, stay layered, and leave no trace. 🐱‍👤💎 💖 Boost the plan, share with the crew, and let’s make this Loonie Heist legendary. 🚀💼
Long
by The-Thief
USD/CAD Rises to 2-Month HighUSD/CAD Rises to 2-Month High Today, the USD/CAD exchange rate briefly exceeded the 1.3870 mark – the highest level seen this summer. In less than ten days, the US dollar has strengthened by over 2% against the Canadian dollar. Why Is USD/CAD Rising? Given that both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday (as expected), the primary driver behind the pair’s recent rally appears to be US President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on several countries – including Canada: → Despite efforts by Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney to reach an agreement with Trump, no deal was achieved; → Canadian goods exported to the US will now be subject to a 35% tariff; → The tariffs take effect from 1 August; → Goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) are exempt. Media analysts note that the tariffs are likely to increase pressure on the Canadian economy, as approximately 75% of the country's exports are destined for the United States. USD/CAD Technical Analysis At the end of July, the price formed a steep ascending channel (A-B), with bullish momentum confirmed by a decisive breakout above the 1.3790 resistance level, as illustrated by the arrow: → the pullback before the breakout was relatively shallow; → the bullish breakout was marked by a long bullish candlestick with a close near the session high; → following the breakout, the price confidently consolidated above 1.3790. Provided that the fundamental backdrop does not undergo a major shift, bulls might attempt to maintain control in the market. However, the likelihood of a correction is also increasing, as the RSI indicator has entered extreme overbought territory. Should USD/CAD show signs of a correction after its steep ascent, support might be found at: → line C, drawn parallel to the A-B channel at a distance of its width; → the previously mentioned 1.3790 level, which now acts as a support following the breakout. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
USD/CAD Institutional Buy Zone – Thief Trading Alert!🔥 USD/CAD "LOONIE BANK HEIST" 🔥 – THIEF TRADING STYLE (BULLISH SNIPER PLAN) 💸 ATTENTION: Market Robbers & Profit Pirates! "Steal Like a Pro – Escape Before the Cops Arrive!" 🎯 MASTER TRADE PLAN (Based on Thief Trading Tactics): Entry Zone (Pullback Heist): 📌 Pullback-1: Market Maker Trap Zone (1.35400+) – Wait for retest! 📌 Pullback-2: Institutional Buy Zone (1.33500+) – Confirm bullish momentum! "Patience = Perfect Heist Timing. Don’t rush—ambush the trend!" 🎯 Profit Target: 1.38100 (or escape earlier if momentum fades). 🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route): Nearest 4H Swing Low (wick/close) – Adjust based on risk & lot size! 🚨 SCALPERS’ WARNING: "Only snipe LONG! Big pockets? Strike now. Small stack? Join swing robbers & trail your SL!" 📉 WHY THIS HEIST? (Bullish Triggers): Technical + Fundamental alignment (COT, Macro, Sentiment). Overbought but institutional demand holding strong. "Bears are trapped—time to rob their stops!" ⚠️ CRITICAL ALERT: News = Volatility = Police Ambush! Avoid new trades during high-impact news. Trailing SL = Your Getaway Car! Lock profits before reversals. 💥 BOOST THIS HEIST! "Hit 👍, 🔔 Follow, and 🚀 Boost to fuel our next robbery! Let’s drain the banks together!" 🔮 NEXT HEIST COMING SOON… Stay tuned, partner! 🎭💰
by The-Thief
Market Analysis: USD/CAD Consolidates GainsMarket Analysis: USD/CAD Consolidates Gains USD/CAD declined and now consolidates below the 1.3750 level. Important Takeaways for USD/CAD Analysis Today - USD/CAD started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the 1.3775 resistance. - There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3715 on the hourly chart at FXOpen. USD/CAD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of USD/CAD at FXOpen, the pair climbed toward the 1.3775 resistance zone before the bears appeared. The US Dollar formed a swing high near 1.3774 and recently declined below the 1.3750 support against the Canadian Dollar. There was also a close below the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3735. The pair is now consolidating losses below the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3774 swing high to the 1.3695 low. But the bulls are active near the 1.3700 level. If there is a fresh increase, the pair could face resistance near the 1.3735 level. The next key resistance on the USD/CAD chart is near the 1.3755 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level. If there is an upside break above 1.3755, the pair could rise toward 1.3775. The next major resistance is near the 1.3800 zone, above which it could rise steadily toward 1.3880. Immediate support is near the 1.3715 level and a key bullish trend line. The first major support is near 1.3675. A close below the 1.3675 level might trigger a strong decline. In the stated case, USD/CAD might test 1.3650. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a drop toward the 1.3620 support. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1