USDJPY Testing 146.700 as Market Awaits ReactionHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a potential selling opportunity around the 146.700 zone. The pair has been trading in an uptrend, but is currently in a correction phase, approaching this key support/resistance level.
Structure: While the broader bias has been bullish, the correction is bringing price back toward an area of interest.
Key level in focus: 146.700 — a zone where sellers may look to step in if momentum shifts.
Fundamentals: Market sentiment remains sensitive to U.S. data and Fed expectations, which continue to guide short-term USD moves.
Trade safe,
Joe.
USDJPY
USDJPY 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Reversal Entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸Bullish Reversal - 146.150
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
GBP/USD | Pound at 1.3535 – Watching for Deeper Drop! (READ)By analyzing the GBP/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is trading around 1.3535. If it closes and holds below 1.3553, we can expect more downside.
The possible bearish targets are 1.3513, 1.3480, and 1.3473. The key demand zones are 1.3480–1.3500 and 1.3448–1.3460.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
USD/JPY: Downside Pressure MountsUSD/JPY has completed a corrective rally into the wave (2) region, stalling around the 152.00–150.50 supply zone and respecting the descending trendline resistance. This rejection confirms that the broader bearish cycle is intact, and the pair is now entering a wave (3) decline.
From the structure, wave (1) has already unfolded strongly to the downside, and the recent corrective bounce aligns as a double three (W–X–Y) correction, which has likely ended. With this in place, we should see downside continuation, targeting lower levels in a clean five-wave decline.
T1 = 144.289
T2 = 142.288
SL = 150.525
As long as USD/JPY holds below the 150.80–152.00 invalidation zone, the outlook stays bearish. Selling momentum remains strong, and any pullback is likely to create new opportunities for sellers until wave (5) completes.
USDJPY Forming Ascending ChannelUSDJPY is currently trading around 147.28, moving within a clear ascending channel structure on the daily chart. Price is testing the lower trendline support near 146.40, making this a critical zone for buyers to defend. If the pair holds above this level, we could see momentum building back toward the 149.40–150.00 resistance area, while a breakdown would expose downside levels near 139.80.
On the fundamental side, the Japanese Yen remains under pressure as the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose monetary stance, despite inflation running higher than historical averages. In contrast, the US Dollar is being driven by shifting expectations on Federal Reserve policy, with recent economic data suggesting that rate cuts may be delayed as inflation cools gradually but remains sticky. This divergence keeps USDJPY well supported in the medium term.
Traders are closely watching upcoming US CPI and labor market data, which will provide further clarity on Fed policy direction. A strong recovery from the ascending channel support could confirm bullish continuation, while a decisive break below could trigger a sharp corrective move.
Risk management is key at this stage, as volatility remains elevated with potential central bank interventions from Japan if the Yen weakens too aggressively. Holding above the channel base keeps the structure bullish, but losing it shifts bias to a deeper retracement.
USDJPY H4| Bullish bounce from key supportUSD/JPY is falling towards the buy entry, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and could bounce from this level to the take profit.
Buy entry is at 146.70, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss is at 146.05, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 147.92, which is a pullback resistance.
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USD/JPY – When News and Technicals ConvergeThe forex market has been “heating up” this week with news of Japan’s Prime Minister resigning, shaking the stability of the yen and putting it under pressure. At the same time, while the USD is weighed down by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, the overall balance still tilts in favor of the greenback. Political uncertainty in Japan has made investors cautious with the JPY, leaving room for USD/JPY to climb higher.
Looking at the chart, USD/JPY has repeatedly tested the descending trendline and is gradually showing signs of a quiet breakout. Price is currently holding firm above the EMA34 and EMA89, signaling that buying momentum is returning after a period of consolidation. The 146.8 level serves as a key downside anchor, while the immediate target is 148.9 – a resistance zone that would mark a decisive breakout if cleared.
What’s interesting here is how news and technicals are lining up. Once USD/JPY pushes through 148.9 with a convincing close, the bullish narrative will be reinforced, opening the door for further upside in the weeks ahead.
Dollar-Yen Outlook: Bearish While Under 147.82 PivotUSDJPY – Overview
The pair shows bearish momentum after stabilizing below 147.82, confirming pressure to the downside.
Technical Outlook:
📉 As long as price trades below 147.82, bearish momentum is expected to extend toward 147.07 → 146.35.
📈 A confirmed 4H close above 147.82 would shift momentum bullish, targeting 148.49 → 149.00.
Key Levels:
Pivot: 147.82
Support: 147.07 – 146.35
Resistance: 148.49 – 149.00
Bias: Bearish below 147.82; bullish recovery possible only on a confirmed break above this pivot.
USDJPY possible drop to monthly supportwith weak US job data has weakens the Dollar Index which led USDJPY to break from the resistance. Price has formed currently a bearish market structure which is maintaining series of lower high's showing a probability to drop the price to monthly support. If further downtrend continuation, entry at break of structure is expected.
USDJPY What Next? BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for USDJPY is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 146.94
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 147.66
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDJPY Trapped In Bearish PatternUSDJPY is already coming down despite the gap higher at the start of the week after Japan’s prime minister announced he will step down. That move proved to be only a short-lived recovery, as the main story remains Fed rate cut expectations, which keep the dollar under pressure. Any gains are short-lived, and looking at the updated wave structure, I still see an ongoing triangle that may retest the lower trendline a few times before eventually breaking lower, possibly later this week or after Thursday’s US inflation data. A break beneath 146.50 would open the way toward 145–144.
Grega
The Trapdoor Series | USDJPY and the Illusion of StabilityHello traders,
"Markets often build structures that look strong from the outside, but inside they hide a trapdoor waiting to open. On this chart, USDJPY is trading within a rising channel, showing strength at first glance. Yet, multiple CHoCH (Change of Character) points reveal that momentum is fragile every rise carries a hidden weakness.
📌 What stands out here:
Middle Zone has acted as a deceptive balance point, pulling price back again and again, but never giving clear continuation.
Liquidity Pool below, where sell-side orders remain untouched, acts as the hidden floor that price could test at any time.
Gap Fill reaction shows how quickly the market closes imbalances before deciding on its next move.
BSL vs SSL battle highlights how traders are tricked between the highs and lows of the channel, unsure which side will truly break.
This structure is like walking on a floor that looks solid but has a trapdoor hidden beneath. Each candle is a step some are firm, some are fragile and traders who rush forward risk falling through the false ground.
💡 Lesson: A trapdoor only opens when enough weight is placed on it. Similarly, in markets, the real move only happens after enough liquidity has been built to justify a breakout. Until then, what looks like stability can simply be a false stage covering the real path.
👉 The question is: will USDJPY’s next move reveal the hidden trapdoor below 🔻, or will it defy expectations and climb higher 🔺 before the floor gives way? Share your perspective — every view adds another piece to the puzzle."
XAU/USD | Gold at Record Highs – Can NFP Stop the Rally?By analyzing the gold chart on the 12-hour timeframe, we can see that the price continued its rally today, reaching $3,578 and printing a new all-time high (ATH)! After hitting this level, gold made a slight pullback to $3,510. Right now, the price has bounced back and is trading around $3,550.
So far, there are no clear signs on the higher timeframes that gold is ready to reverse from here. For that, we would need to see stronger bearish moves. The current momentum still supports further upside unless proven otherwise. That’s why it’s better to stay patient and wait for a real break or shift in market structure before looking for attractive trade setups.
Also, tomorrow we have the NFP report, which could trigger a drop in gold if the data comes in stronger than expected. Until then, we’ll wait — and if you guys strongly support this post, I’ll share my updated personal analysis a few hours before the release. Stay tuned!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
USDJPY – Dual POI Short Setup🧠 Market Context
Previous Day High swept → liquidity grab complete.
CHoCH → Bearish Intent confirmed → directional bias is short.
Price is now retracing into supply zones for potential continuation lower.
🎯 Key Points of Interest (POIs)
Refined 1H POI
Aligned with highest previous day volume.
Strong institutional confluence.
Extreme 5M FVG (sweep origin)
Cleaner entry with tighter risk.
Aligns with the extreme point of interest logic from liquidity models.
⚖️ Execution Plan
Option A: Scale Entries
Partial entry at 1H POI.
Add position at 5M extreme FVG if price sweeps deeper.
Option B: Confirmation Entries
Wait for LTF BOS / rejection candle inside either POI before execution.
🔽 Bearish Targets
147.037 → Previous Daily Low (Liquidity Zone).
146.582 – 146.600 → Deeper liquidity + imbalance fill.
⚠️ Risk Management
Risk 0.5–1% per setup, split across zones.
Move SL to breakeven once 2R is achieved.
Trail stop following bearish structure.
📊 Summary
USDJPY has shifted to bearish intent after the PDH sweep. Two valid POIs are in play — a volume-backed 1H supply and an extreme 5M FVG.
Best approach: scale into both for higher probability while keeping risk controlled.
💬 What do you think? Would you take the refined 1H POI or wait for the extreme 5M FVG?
Can USDJPY Sustain Bullish Momentum or Face a Sharp Reversal?🚀 USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Bank Heist Plan 🏦🎯
Swing/Day Trade | Bullish MA Breakout | Layer Entry Strategy
📊 WHY THIS PLAN? THE THIEF'S LOGIC
Professional analysis combining technical, fundamental, and sentiment factors for high-probability execution.
📈 Technical Edge: Critical 4H close above 148.500 confirms moving average breakout momentum and a shift in market structure, signaling the next leg up.
🎯 Layered Entries (Thief Strategy): Using multiple limit orders at 148.500, 148.300, 148.000, 147.800, and 147.700 ensures a better average entry price and allows us to "steal" pips from the market efficiently. You can add more layers based on your own risk!
⚖️ Bullish Sentiment Alignment: Both retail (60% Bullish 🐂) and institutional (55% Bullish 🐂) sentiment show a slight bullish tilt, supporting our technical thesis.
😎 Neutral Market Mood: The Fear & Greed Index at 53/100 (Neutral) indicates a balanced market with no extreme emotions. This provides a stable foundation for a breakout play without FOMO driving the price.
🌍 Fundamental & Macro Backdrop: A Fundamental Score of 6.5/10 highlights moderate USD strength from US economic stability, countered by JPY support from BoJ policy rumors. The Macro Score of 6/10 reflects global uncertainties but also potential volatility we can capitalize on.
🗺️ TRADE PLAN: THE HEIST BLUEPRINT
Entry Conditions
✅ CONFIRMATION: 4H candle MUST CLOSE ABOVE 148.500 (Wait for the confirmation candle to avoid fakeouts!)
🔫 ENTRY: Use the Thief's layered limit order strategy:
Layer 1: 148.500
Layer 2: 148.300
Layer 3: 148.000
Layer 4: 147.800
Layer 5: 147.700
You can increase or adjust these limit layers based on your own strategy and capital.
Risk Management
⛔ STOP LOSS: This thief's SL is 146.700. Dear Ladies & Gentleman (Thief OG's) 👑, adjust your SL based on your own strategy & risk. I am not responsible for your results.
🎯 TARGET: Escape with the stolen money at 151.000. This target aligns with a key resistance and "tarap zone." Consider taking partial profits on the way up.
⚖️ Note: This is your heist. You can take money at your own risk and discretion.
📌 MARKET SNAPSHOT & KEY DRIVERS
💸 Current Price: 148.1540 (Up 0.55%)
📊 Overall Market Outlook: Neutral with a Slight Bullish Bias 🐂
✨ Key Takeaway: USD/JPY is stable but range-bound. Watch for a break above 148.8–149.0 for a confirmed upside breakout, or a break below 146.65 for a failure.
Related Pairs & Assets to Watch
$EUR/PY - High correlation to USDJPY moves.
OANDA:GBPJPY - Another liquid Yen cross to gauge risk sentiment.
TVC:DXY - US Dollar Index strength directly impacts this pair.
TVC:US10Y - Watch US Treasury yields for USD momentum clues.
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
⚠️ DISCLAIMER
This idea is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions and capital. Trading forex carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
#Forex #USDJPY #TradingPlan #TechnicalAnalysis #BankHeist #SwingTrading #DayTrading #ForexSignals #TradingView
147.20 Holds Strong — Next Stop 150.00 on USD/JPY?🔎 Technical Outlook (USD/JPY – 4H)
The pair is currently trading around 147.78, consolidating within a broad range. The key observation is repeated rejections near 147.20 support, suggesting buyers are defending this zone. On the upside, 149.00–149.20 remains a strong resistance ceiling.
Momentum indicators (based on price action structure in your chart) show buyers stepping back in after a retracement. The bullish setup comes from the fact that price is rebounding off support, forming higher lows, and still holding above the mid-range of the consolidation channel.
________________________________________
📈 Bullish Trade Setup (USD/JPY – 4H)
• ✅ Entry Zone (Buy): 147.60 – 147.80 (current area, confirmation above 147.90 ideal)
• 🛑 Stop Loss: 147.20 (below recent swing low & defended support)
• 🎯 Take Profit 1: 148.70 – lock partial gains (book ~50%)
• 🎯 Take Profit 2: 149.20 – key resistance test, move stop to breakeven
• 🎯 Take Profit 3: 150.00 – extended bullish breakout potential, trail stop to 148.70
________________________________________
📊 Risk Handling & Trade Management
1. Risk no more than 1–2% per trade — USD/JPY can be volatile.
2. Partial Profit Booking: Secure profits at TP1 to reduce exposure while riding further upside.
3. Trailing Stop: After TP1, shift SL to entry. If TP2 is hit, trail stop tighter under 148.50 to lock profits while leaving room for 150.
4. Be mindful of U.S. economic releases this week (highlighted at bottom of chart), which can cause sharp spikes in JPY pairs.
________________________________________
⚖️ Summary
USD/JPY is showing strength from support, and as long as 147.20 holds, the bullish structure remains valid. A clean break above 149.20 could trigger momentum buying toward 150.00, making this a favorable R:R setup with disciplined management.
________________________________________
Japan's GDP sparkles, yen pushes higherThe Japanese yen is in positive territory on Monday. In the European sesssion, USD/JPY is trading at 147.87, down 0.35% on the day.
The week has started on a positive note in Japan, as GDP for the second quarter was revised sharply higher to 2.2% y/y, up from the initial reading of 1.0% and above the Q1 gain of 0.3%.
This was the fastest pace of growth since Q3 2024, as private consumption was higher, in part due to government subsidies for rice and energy. Exports were higher as firms rushed to ship to the US before the blanket 15% tariffs kicked in. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded 0.5%, up from the initial reading of 0.3%.
The increase in exports could be short-lived, as the US tariffs are making Japanese exports more expensive. Tariffs concerns could delay the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, and third-quarter GDP will help gauge the effect of the tariffs on Japan's economy.
The political uncertainty in Japan is another factor which supports the BoJ staying on the sidelines. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has resigned after a disastrous election in which Ishiba's coalition lost its majority in the lower house of parliament. It remains unclear who will replace Ishiba, with a leadership vote expected in October.
US nonfarm payrolls disappointed with a marginal gain of 22 thousand, well below the upwardly revised gain of 79 thousand in July and the market estimate of 75 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, the highest level since December 2021.
The money markets responded to the weak nonfarm payrolls report by fully pricing in a rate cut at next week's meeting, with a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut and a 10% chance of a half-point cut, according to CME's FedWatch. Prior to the jobs release, there was a 0% chance of a half-point cut.
USD/JPY is testing support at 147.60. Next, there is support at 146.62
There is resistance at 148.37 and 149.35
USD/JPY: Breakout from Japan's PoliticsUSD/JPY is currently fluctuating within a range-bound channel, with strong support at 146.600 and significant resistance at 148.500. The 4-hour chart shows that the price is stabilizing around EMA 34 at 147.620, maintaining a strong upward momentum.
Impact from Japan's Politics
On September 9, 2025, news of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation caused political instability in Japan, weakening the Japanese yen against the US dollar. Investors are concerned that the looser monetary policy from his successor could further weaken the yen, paving the way for USD/JPY to continue rising.
Strong Growth Outlook
With a solid support base and the USD benefiting from the yen's weakness, USD/JPY is on a strong upward trend, targeting 148.500, and potentially extending towards 150.000 if political and economic factors continue to drive this momentum.
Yen Pairs Falter at Technical Junctures Several yen pairs have stalled around resistance levels, despite solid rallies into them. But whether this could indicate the beginning of a deep pullback or eventual bullish breakout likely hinges on whether incoming data points towards a hard or soft landing in the US. Today I look out EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY crosses, and update analysis on USD/JPY.
Matt Simpson, market Analyst at City Index
Key Levels to Watch for USDJPY Ahead of Payrolls DataUSDJPY is contracting in the medium term, while in the shorter term there is a slightly bullish trend channel.
Although there is no clear direction, this tight range offers many trading opportunities. For today, the 147.90–148.00 zone could act as immediate support. After the payrolls data, if USDJPY holds above this support, it may be bullish in the short term. If the level breaks, it could trigger a selloff. The lower and upper lines of the trend channel stand at 146.80 and 149.20, which should be monitored closely if the pair moves sharply after the data.
Traders should also keep in mind that Japan’s ruling party will hold an election on Monday, so the final hours of the week could bring spiky candles.
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 144.92
1st Support: 142.44
1st Resistance: 150.96
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDJPY 30Min Engaged ( Bearish Reversal Entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸Bearish Reversal - 147.900
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
Bullish reversal in play?USD/JPY has bounced off the support level, which acts as a pullback support and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 147.09
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
Stop loss: 146.62
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
Take profit: 147.92
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.