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USD/JPY break of risising channel, what is next?💹 Trade Setup USD/JPY USD/JPY has broken out of the rising channel with continued series of higher low and currently retesting the preivous resistance turns support. Fiscal concerns and BOJ rates are still just 0.5% has weaken futher the JPY while positive data on NFP has boosted USD making USD/JPY a stonger currency pairs among all USD pairs. with rate cut news from Fed on Friday market rebounded and a daily rejection has seen which currently sitting at the top of the channel at 156.192 and possible falsebrak below and rejection can indicate futher rise to 1st resitance at 158.921 📈Trading Idea : Look for bullish setup after false breakout of daily support at channel resistance 156.192 and rejection above ✈️Targets 1st Resistance 158.921 2nd Resistance: 161.960 🔴Stop level at or below 154.802 as the previous swing low Follow for more ideas and update on this pair and other pairs !
Long
by ForexWizard01
USD/JPY: Impulse Squall or Bearish Ambush – Where Will the Wave USD/JPY: Impulse Squall or Bearish Ambush – Where Will the Wave End? 📈 Weekly Scenarios Bullish scenario: If USD/JPY holds support at ~142.50 and breaks above ~146.00, a rally to ~149–150 is possible. Consolidation: The pair could move in the ~142.50–146.00 range, accumulating strength before the next move. Bearish scenario: A break below ~142.50 with volume confirmation could lead to a pullback to ~140.00–141.00. ✅ Conclusion USD/JPY is at an important weekly crossroads: either a surge in upward momentum or a significant correction. Key levels to watch: 142.50 (support) and 146.00 (resistance). The wave structure is not yet clear; it is important to monitor the price reaction at these levels and confirmation of the wave count.
by Trade_Hive_Signals
USDJPY | Prices Starting to Exhaust and Potential to DeclineMarket Structure Overview The current price is around 154.58 – 154.60. Overall, USDJPY has remained in a major uptrend (bullish) since early October 2025. However, the current price pattern is showing signs of trend exhaustion in the upper area of ​​the channel—approaching the supply zone of 155.00 – 155.50. The RSI is starting to decline from the overbought area, while the momentum histogram also shows weak divergence (weakening upward momentum). ✅ Elliott Wave Structure (H4) From the swing structure visible on the chart, the Elliott Wave pattern can be identified as follows: ✅ Elliott Wave Count: - Wave (1): Initial rise from 149.00 → 151.50 - Wave (2): Correction to 150.40 - Wave (3): Strong impulse up to 154.00 - Wave (4): Mild correction to 152.00 – 152.20 - Wave (5): Final rally towards the 155.00 area (currently forming) This means the price is at the end of the impulse phase (Wave 5) — which is usually followed by a major correction (ABC Correction). ✅ Technical Patterns and Confirmation Technical Patterns Formed: - A rising wedge pattern (a tapering upward pattern) is clearly visible at the end of the trend. - A wedge like this often signals a distribution or reversal pattern at the end of an impulse wave (wave 5). - The upper area of ​​the wedge and the supply zone of 155.00 – 155.50 have the potential to become a strong reversal zone. 📊 Confirmation Indicators: - RSI: forming a bearish divergence — higher price high, lower RSI high. - Momentum Histogram: starting to shrink, indicating weakening bullish momentum. - This supports the possibility that Wave 5 is nearing completion. ✅ Projected Movement Direction 📉 Main Scenario (Reversal / Downward Correction) After Wave 5 completes around 155.00 – 155.50, the price has the potential to reverse downwards, forming a large ABC correction (the beginning of Wave A). Initial correction targets: - Target 1: 154.00 (minor support & lower wedge) - Target 2: 153.00 - Target 3 (extension): 151.50 – 152.00 If the price breaks through wedge support (BOS downwards), it confirms the Wave A correction has begun. 📈 Alternative Scenario (Continued Breakout) If the price breaks strongly above 155.50 with high volume, it indicates the Wave 5 extension is continuing. Continued targets: 156.00 – 156.50, before a major correction begins. However, this opportunity is smaller, due to numerous signs of exhaustion in the upper area. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅Short-Term Position (Potential Reversal) - Sell Entry: 155.00 – 155.40 (supply zone & upper wedge area) - Stop Loss: 155.80 (above wedge + structure invalidation) - Take Profit 1: 154.00 - Take Profit 2: 153.00 🎯 RR ratio around 1:3 Entry confirmation: emergence of a bearish engulfing/minor downward BOS on H1–H4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅Long-Term Position (Buy the Dip) If the Wave A–B–C correction completes below (around 151.50 – 152.00), then a new potential Wave (1) of the major uptrend (the next cycle) could begin. - Buy Entry: 151.50 – 152.00 (strong demand zone) - Stop Loss: 150.40 - Take Profit: 155.00 – 156.00 🎯 RR around 1:4 – long-term accumulation position
Short
by NouzTrader
USDJPY is ready to head to the upside - BUY NOW!For several weeks USDJPY has been stuck inside a strong upwards channel that it has not broken out of and keeps making more clear bullish signs. Recently the price touched the lower channel trend line (which acts as a support level) and bounced back up from it. Secondly, the price also broke above the white trendline which was acting as a strong resistance zone (the price then retraced back to the white trendline and treated it as a new support level) the next target has been drawn out on the chart - time to buy USDJPY!
Long
by VIPindicators
USD/JPY) Bearish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY on the 4H timeframe, built on Smart Money Concepts (SMC) principles, Fibonacci retracement, and liquidity structure. Let’s break down the full trading idea and logic 👇 --- Overall Concept The idea shows a retracement sell setup, where price is expected to pull back into a premium zone (Fibonacci 0.62–0.79) before resuming a bearish move toward the target zone near 150.928. This aligns with a potential distribution phase after a strong bullish rally. --- Technical Breakdown 1. Market Structure The market broke below the recent higher low → signaling a shift in structure from bullish to bearish. The move up into the blue zone is considered a pullback for liquidity grab or supply zone mitigation before continuation down. 2. Key Levels Current Price: 153.428 50 EMA: 153.346 → price is currently retesting around this dynamic resistance. 200 EMA: 151.572 → next potential support area and confluence with the target zone. Premium Zone (Fibonacci): 0.62–0.79 levels between 153.90–154.20 — expected sell area. Target Zone: 150.928 – key demand zone and previous liquidity area. 3. Fibonacci Confluence The retracement tool from swing high → swing low shows price is expected to retest the 0.62–0.79 levels, which is a smart money premium zone for short entries. 4. Expected Price Action 1. Short-term retracement up into the blue supply zone (0.62–0.79). 2. Bearish reaction and rejection candle formation (e.g., engulfing or long wick). 3. Continuation downward to take liquidity resting below 151.00 and fill imbalance into the 150.928 target area. 5. Volume & Confirmation Moderate volume (24.5K) aligns with a retracement phase before a possible impulsive drop. Watch for bearish divergence or rejection wicks in the premium zone for confirmation. --- Trade Idea Summary Aspect Detail Bias Bearish Entry Zone 153.90 – 154.20 (Fibonacci 0.62–0.79 / supply zone) Stop Loss Above 154.40 (above structure high) Take Profit 150.92 (demand zone target) Risk-to-Reward (RR) ≈ 1:3 or better Mr SMC Trading point --- Confirmation to Watch Rejection candles or bearish engulfing patterns near 154.00 Price failing to break above EMA50 or upper structure Momentum shift on lower timeframe (M15–H1) confirming entry trigger --- Summary USD/JPY shows signs of a bearish correction phase, with price expected to retest premium levels before dropping toward 150.92. The setup is supported by a structure break, Fibonacci confluence, and EMA alignment suggesting downside continuation. --- please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
1
USD/JPY consolidates due to BoJ rate hike uncertaintyThe USD/JPY pair moved within a narrow range on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) consolidated the previous day's sharp gains, while the US Dollar (USD) managed to gain slightly. The overall movement was limited by conflicting fundamental and political signals in both countries. ## Mixed Signals for the Japanese Yen (JPY) - Weakness (Delaying Interest Rate Hike): Disappointing Japanese Household Spending data fueled speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could delay its next interest rate hike. - Strength (Limiting Declines): However, the minutes of the BoJ's September meeting released last Wednesday maintained expectations for an imminent interest rate hike. ## Risks: USD gains were limited by two concerns: - Economic risks stemming from the prolonged US government shutdown. - Market speculation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (The Fed). ## Downside Scenario (Bearish) - Selling Trigger: An overnight break below resistance-turned-support at 153.30-153.25 favors further depreciation. - Initial Key Support: Further declines are likely to find decent support near the 152.15-152.10 region (although the daily oscillator remains positive). - Bias Reversal: Continued selling below the 152.00 mark will provide a fresh trigger for bearish traders and extend the decline from the February high. ## Bullish Scenario - Initial Hurdle: A recovery above the 153.30-153.25 horizontal resistance will face resistance near the 153.65 area. - Pivot Point: Sustained strength beyond the latter will allow USD/JPY to reclaim the 154.00 mark and retest the 154.45 supply zone. This level should act as a key pivot point. - Further Targets: A break above 154.45 could lift the spot price to the psychological level of 155.00, and continue to 155.60 - 155.65 and the round number of 156.00.
Short
by NouzTrader
USDJPY Signs of Exhaustion Near 155 as Yen Sentiment TurnsUSDJPY is showing early signs of fatigue near the 155.00 resistance area, a level that has repeatedly triggered warnings from Japanese officials. After an impressive multi-week rally driven by yield differentials, the pair now faces growing pressure as U.S. rate expectations cool slightly and speculation builds that the Bank of Japan may step in to curb excessive yen weakness. The chart suggests room for a pullback toward the 150.00 zone if the market shifts into a short-term correction phase. Current Bias Mildly bearish in the near term, with potential for a correction from 154.50–155.00 toward 150.00 if yields or risk sentiment soften. Key Fundamental Drivers U.S. Dollar Drivers: The dollar’s momentum has eased after a mixed batch of U.S. data showing slowing job growth and cautious comments from Fed officials about the pace of future rate cuts. Japanese Policy Outlook: The BOJ remains under quiet but rising pressure to acknowledge persistent inflation and the side effects of prolonged easing. Markets are watching for any language signaling the eventual normalization of policy. Yield Spreads: The U.S.–Japan 10-year yield differential remains wide but has stopped expanding, which could limit further USDJPY upside. Macro Context The macro backdrop points to a potential cooling phase for USDJPY. The Fed’s gradual pivot toward rate normalization and lower long-end yields reduce upward pressure on the pair. Meanwhile, Japan’s inflation remains above target, and wage growth is improving, adding weight to the argument for a modest policy shift by the BOJ in early 2026. On the geopolitical front, lingering trade tensions and tariff rhetoric continue to influence sentiment. However, the yen’s traditional role as a safe-haven currency means any escalation in global risk aversion or equity volatility could trigger sharp JPY strength. Interest rate expectations: Fed: Market pricing implies one rate cut possible in mid-2026 if inflation slows sustainably. BOJ: Potential for policy tightening in 2026 remains on the radar, with minor adjustments likely before that. Primary Risk to the Trend A stronger-than-expected U.S. CPI print or hawkish Fed communication could renew dollar strength and push USDJPY back above 155. Conversely, verbal or actual BOJ intervention would quickly unwind speculative longs and drive the pair lower. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event U.S. CPI and PPI inflation data BOJ Governor Ueda’s policy commentary U.S. Treasury yield developments Leader/Lagger Dynamics USDJPY acts as a leader among JPY pairs, often setting the tone for crosses like GBPJPY and CADJPY. It follows broad U.S. dollar sentiment but can detach temporarily when Japanese policy expectations or intervention risk dominate. Key Levels Support Levels: 151.00 / 150.00 Resistance Levels: 154.50 / 155.00 Stop Loss (SL): 155.40 Take Profit (TP): 151.00 (initial), 150.00 (extended) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USDJPY is nearing an exhaustion point after testing the upper boundary near 155. With U.S. yields stabilizing and the BOJ maintaining a cautious but firmer tone, the near-term setup favors a bearish correction toward 151.00–150.00. A stop loss above 155.40 protects against renewed dollar strength, while profit-taking near 150.00 captures potential downside momentum. Traders should keep an eye on Fed communications and BOJ rhetoric—any sign of tightening bias from Japan or yield pullbacks in the U.S. could accelerate yen recovery. In the meantime, this remains a market sensitive to intervention talk and sentiment swings, making disciplined risk management essential.
Short
by ultreosforex
18
USD/JPY Has a Bearish Trading BiasThe USD/JPY pair is currently stable, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthening slightly against the weaker US Dollar (USD). This JPY strengthening halted the previous day's sharp decline, but the overall movement of USD/JPY is limited by conflicting fundamental factors. 1. Market Fundamental Factors A. Support for the Japanese Yen (JPY) BoJ Hawkish: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) September meeting released on Wednesday maintained market expectations for an imminent interest rate hike. Intervention: Speculation that Japanese authorities might intervene to prevent further JPY weakness also offered support. B. Limits to JPY Strength and Support for USD/JPY BoJ Uncertainty: Investors remain uncertain about the exact timing of the BoJ's next interest rate hike. This uncertainty is fueled by expectations that the new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, will pursue an aggressive fiscal spending plan and resist policy tightening. Global Risk Sentiment: A moderate recovery in global risk sentiment tends to weaken the safe-haven JPY. Strong USD: The US dollar (USD) held steady near its highest level since late May on the back of the US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which helped limit USD/JPY's decline. 2. USD/JPY Technical Analysis USD/JPY has been struggling below the key resistance level of 154.40-154.45 for over a week. This zone serves as a pivot point that determines the direction of price movement. A. Bullish Scenario ⬆️ Trigger for a Rise: A sustained breakout and acceptance above 154.40-154.45 will be a signal for bulls. Next Target: Spot prices will aim to reclaim the psychological 155.00 level. Continued Target: Continued buying will open the way to the 155.60-155.65 resistance level, before rising further towards the 156.00 level. B. Bearish Scenario ⬇️ Initial Support: The 153.65 area is expected to offer support, followed by the overnight low around 153.00 - 152.95. Selling Trigger: Acceptance below 153.00 could trigger technical selling. Downside Target: The corrective decline will accelerate towards the intermediate support level of 152.55 - 152.50, and extend towards the 152.00 round number and last week's low at 151.55. USDJPY remains bearish below the pivot zone, with the next directional move to be confirmed by a breakout from the current consolidation range.
Short
by NouzTrader
USD/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup (6 Nov 2025)📊 Technical Structure FX:USDJPY USD/JPY trades around 153.85, consolidating beneath the Resistance Zone (154.07–154.24) after failing to sustain its rebound from the 153.00 level. The recent rejection near 154.20 indicates selling pressure returning at prior supply levels. The Support Zone lies between 152.88–153.04, which served as a strong demand base earlier this week. A confirmed breakdown below 153.50 could accelerate a retracement toward this area. Conversely, a sustained break above 154.30 would negate the bearish structure and resume the uptrend. 🎯 Trade Setup Idea: Short from resistance, targeting retest of key support zone. Entry: 154.07– 154.24 Stop Loss: 154.28 Take Profit 1: 153.04 Take Profit 2: 152.88 Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 5.72 A decisive hourly close above 154.28 invalidates the bearish setup. 🌐 Macro Background The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens modestly during Thursday’s Asian session, buoyed by revived BoJ rate hike bets, though upside momentum remains limited due to policy uncertainty. According to FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani, “The Japanese Yen attracts some buying as hopes for an imminent BoJ rate hike persist, though policy caution caps gains.” 【FXStreet】 BoJ Outlook: Minutes from the September BoJ meeting highlighted policymakers’ openness to raising interest rates, citing that the 2% inflation goal has been largely achieved. However, the central bank remains cautious amid external risks and weak global demand. Fiscal Context: Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi continues to favour aggressive fiscal spending, dampening expectations of rapid monetary tightening. USD Factors: The US Dollar remains firm after the ADP employment report showed 42,000 new private-sector jobs in October and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to an eight-month high, reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish bias. Shutdown Impact: The US government shutdown, now in its 36th day, clouds near-term data reliability and limits aggressive USD buying despite strong fundamentals. Overall, the Yen’s short-term strength is tempered by BoJ caution and global risk recovery, while the Fed’s hawkish stance continues to anchor USD/JPY above 153. Yet, with technical rejection from resistance and potential consolidation, a short-term corrective dip looks likely. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance: 154.07 – 154.24 Support: 152.88 – 153.04 Psychological Level: 154.00 📌 Trade Summary USD/JPY is encountering resistance around 154.20 while forming lower intraday highs. The combination of BoJ rate speculation and Fed hawkish stability suggests a range-bound but corrective bias. The preferred setup is a short from 154.07–154.24, targeting a retracement to 153.00, provided price remains capped below 154.30. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Short
by ATFX_Global
USD/ JPY) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY — anticipating a retracement followed by a strong upward continuation toward the target zone near 154.99. --- Overall Idea The analysis suggests that USD/JPY has shifted into a bullish structure, and the trader expects a pullback into the Fibonacci zone (demand area) before resuming the uptrend. --- Key Components 1. Market Structure The pair recently broke above short-term resistance, signaling bullish momentum. The expectation is for a retracement (correction) to form a higher low, followed by another impulsive bullish leg. 2. Fibonacci Retracement Zone The retracement box (0.5 – 0.79 Fibonacci levels) marks the potential buy zone. It aligns with the previous structure support and EMA confluence, strengthening the case for bullish continuation. The green arrow indicates the expected reversal point. 3. EMA Confluence The 50 EMA (153.757) and 200 EMA (153.278) lie within the Fibonacci zone. These act as dynamic support levels, ideal for an entry confirmation. The price currently sits above both EMAs, confirming the bullish trend. 4. Projected Move After a potential dip into the blue demand zone, the projection shows a sharp bounce toward the target point at 154.991. This target likely corresponds to: A previous supply/resistance zone, or A measured Fibonacci extension (1.0) of the previous swing. Mr SMC Trading point --- Summary Market bias: Bullish Entry zone: 0.5–0.79 Fibonacci retracement (≈ 153.75–153.25) Target: 154.99 Confirmation: EMA support + bullish rejection candle or break of minor structure Invalidation: Sustained break below 153.20 --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
2