Get started

Usdjpyidea

TheGrove | USDJPY SELL | Idea Trading AnalysisYou can expect a reaction on Descending channel, the direction of selling from the specified Resistance LINE, USDJPY moving higher as it tests the strong resistance level.. We expect a bearish move from the confluence zone. Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
Short
by TheGrove
1
USDJPY: +1200 Pips Trading Selling Setup! One Not To MissDear Traders, We hope you’re doing well. We have a strong selling setup in place where the price is likely to drop in an impulsive pattern. Once the price rejects this area, a move is expected to be worth around +1200 pips. Looking at the DXY, we might see a reversal in the coming week as it trades at a very critical level. Meanwhile, the JPY is showing some strong bullish nature and behaviour. There are two targets to keep an eye on: a nearby one and a swing idea. If you agree with our view, please like and comment for more! The Setupsfx_ Team
Short
by Setupsfx_
20
USDJPY: Easy Bullish Trading Setup Targeting 160 And FVG!Dear traders, The USDJPY is heading towards the liquidity void area left behind yesterday. This is due to strong BOJ intervention in the market and the release of strong economic data favouring the JPY. The market is currently settling down from yesterday’s news. We anticipate the price hitting our target on Monday or later Tuesday next week. Please manage your risk accurately when trading this pair. If you agree with our analysis, please like and comment. The Setupsfx_ Team
Long
by Setupsfx_
17
| USDJPY | WISE TO SHORT THE DXY? | PERSONALLY NOT SO SURE📈| Q2 | W20 | D13 | Y26 | DXY "TRUMPS" THE MOVE 📊| USDJPY | FRGNT DAILY CHART ANALYSIS ⚠️ | WISE TO SHORT THE DXY? | PERSONALLY NOT SO SURE This forecast is built using an advanced adaptation of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured and disciplined approach: • Marking Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ • Defining a clear, controlled trading range from those zones 📐 • Refining entries on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 • Waiting for confirmed Break of Structure (BoS) before execution ✅ This process ensures precision, removes emotional decision-making, and keeps me aligned with the overall market narrative. 💡 Core Philosophy “Capital management, discipline, and consistency create longevity.” A strong risk-to-reward model, paired with high-probability execution, is the foundation of sustainable trading 📈🔐 ⚠️ Understanding Losses "Losses are part of the game" — a mathematical certainty 🎲 They don’t define performance. Nor do they define you as a Trader. They are managed, reviewed, and used as evidence for growth 📊 🙏 Final Note Appreciate you taking the time to review today’s forecast. Stay disciplined 🎯 Protect your capital 🔐 — FRGNT 🚀📈 📌 Disclaimer This content is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It reflects my personal approach to the markets — a tested framework that has supported my own journey toward consistent profitability in currency trading. Please understand that any forecasts shared are not financial advice. I will be looking for confirmation in line with my setup model and specific entry criteria from the key areas identified on the chart. All analysis, whether presented via image or video, is shared strictly for educational insight and is not intended to breach any TradingView House Rules. FX:USDJPY
Short
by JCFRGNT
USDJPY | LONG BIAS | WEEKLY FRGNT FAVOURITE |Q2 | W20 | D11 | Y2📈Q2 | W20 | D11 | Y26 | 📊USDJPY | LONG BIAS | 💡WEEKLY FRGNT FAVOURITE | This forecast is built using an advanced adaptation of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured and disciplined approach: • Marking Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ • Defining a clear, controlled trading range from those zones 📐 • Refining entries on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 • Waiting for confirmed Break of Structure (BoS) before execution ✅ This process ensures precision, removes emotional decision-making, and keeps me aligned with the overall market narrative. 💡 Core Philosophy “Capital management, discipline, and consistency create longevity.” A strong risk-to-reward model, paired with high-probability execution, is the foundation of sustainable trading 📈🔐 ⚠️ Understanding Losses "Losses are part of the game" — a mathematical certainty 🎲 They don’t define performance. Nor do they define you as a Trader. They are managed, reviewed, and used as evidence for growth 📊 🙏 Final Note Appreciate you taking the time to review today’s forecast. Stay disciplined 🎯 Protect your capital 🔐 — FRGNT 🚀📈 📌 Disclaimer This content is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It reflects my personal approach to the markets — a tested framework that has supported my own journey toward consistent profitability in currency trading. Please understand that any forecasts shared are not financial advice. I will be looking for confirmation in line with my setup model and specific entry criteria from the key areas identified on the chart. All analysis, whether presented via image or video, is shared strictly for educational insight and is not intended to breach any TradingView House Rules. FX:USDJPY
Long
by JCFRGNT
USDJPY | | HAVE A PLAN | TRADE CONSISTENT| TRADE THE PLAN 📈Q2 | W19 | D7 | Y26 | 📊USDJPY | FRGNT DAILY FORECAST | HAVE A PLAN | TRADE CONSISTENT | TRADE THE PLAN 🔍 Analysis Framework This forecast is built using an advanced adaptation of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured and disciplined approach: • Marking Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ • Defining a clear, controlled trading range from those zones 📐 • Refining entries on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 • Waiting for confirmed Break of Structure (BoS) before execution ✅ This process ensures precision, removes emotional decision-making, and keeps me aligned with the overall market narrative. 💡 Core Philosophy “Capital management, discipline, and consistency create longevity.” A strong risk-to-reward model, paired with high-probability execution, is the foundation of sustainable trading 📈🔐 ⚠️ Understanding Losses "Losses are part of the game" — a mathematical certainty 🎲 They don’t define performance. Nor do they define you as a Trader. They are managed, reviewed, and used as evidence for growth 📊 🙏 Final Note Appreciate you taking the time to review today’s forecast. Stay disciplined 🎯 Protect your capital 🔐 — FRGNT 🚀📈 📌 Disclaimer This content is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It reflects my personal approach to the markets — a tested framework that has supported my own journey toward consistent profitability in currency trading. Please understand that any forecasts shared are not financial advice. I will be looking for confirmation in line with my setup model and specific entry criteria from the key areas identified on the chart. All analysis, whether presented via image or video, is shared strictly for educational insight and is not intended to breach any TradingView House Rules. FX:USDJPY
Long
by JCFRGNT
USDJPY | FRGNT DAILY FORECAST | TIME TO MOVE LONG, LONG TERM !📈Q2 | W19 | D7 | Y26 | 📊USDJPY | FRGNT DAILY FORECAST | TIME TO MOVE LONG, LONG TERM ! 🔍 Analysis Framework This forecast is built using an advanced adaptation of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured and disciplined approach: • Marking Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ • Defining a clear, controlled trading range from those zones 📐 • Refining entries on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 • Waiting for confirmed Break of Structure (BoS) before execution ✅ This process ensures precision, removes emotional decision-making, and keeps me aligned with the overall market narrative. 💡 Core Philosophy “Capital management, discipline, and consistency create longevity.” A strong risk-to-reward model, paired with high-probability execution, is the foundation of sustainable trading 📈🔐 ⚠️ Understanding Losses "Losses are part of the game" — a mathematical certainty 🎲 They don’t define performance. Nor do they define you as a Trader. They are managed, reviewed, and used as evidence for growth 📊 🙏 Final Note Appreciate you taking the time to review today’s forecast. Stay disciplined 🎯 Protect your capital 🔐 — FRGNT 🚀📈 📌 Disclaimer This content is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It reflects my personal approach to the markets — a tested framework that has supported my own journey toward consistent profitability in currency trading. Please understand that any forecasts shared are not financial advice. I will be looking for confirmation in line with my setup model and specific entry criteria from the key areas identified on the chart. All analysis, whether presented via image or video, is shared strictly for educational insight and is not intended to breach any TradingView House Rules. FX:USDJPY
Long
by JCFRGNT
USDJPY | FRGNT DAILY FORECAST | 400 + PIPS ON THE TABLE📈Q2 | W19 | D6 | Y26 | 📊USDJPY | FRGNT DAILY FORECAST | 400 + PIPS ON THE TABLE 💡 🔍 Analysis Framework This forecast is built using an advanced adaptation of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured and disciplined approach: • Marking Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ • Defining a clear, controlled trading range from those zones 📐 • Refining entries on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 • Waiting for confirmed Break of Structure (BoS) before execution ✅ This process ensures precision, removes emotional decision-making, and keeps me aligned with the overall market narrative. 💡 Core Philosophy “Capital management, discipline, and consistency create longevity.” A strong risk-to-reward model, paired with high-probability execution, is the foundation of sustainable trading 📈🔐 ⚠️ Understanding Losses "Losses are part of the game" — a mathematical certainty 🎲 They don’t define performance. Nor do they define you as a Trader. They are managed, reviewed, and used as evidence for growth 📊 🙏 Final Note Appreciate you taking the time to review today’s forecast. Stay disciplined 🎯 Protect your capital 🔐 — FRGNT 🚀📈 📌 Disclaimer This content is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It reflects my personal approach to the markets — a tested framework that has supported my own journey toward consistent profitability in currency trading. Please understand that any forecasts shared are not financial advice. I will be looking for confirmation in line with my setup model and specific entry criteria from the key areas identified on the chart. All analysis, whether presented via image or video, is shared strictly for educational insight and is not intended to breach any TradingView House Rules. FX:USDJPY
Long
by JCFRGNT
1
USDJPY Market View: Trend Intact, Risk Levels Critical━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ USD/JPY — "THE NINJA" 💹 Forex Market Trade Opportunity Guide 📅 Day Trade | Swing Trade | Multi-Session Setup 📍 London Time Reference | Live Market Data: 05 May 2026 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 TRADE PLAN: BULLISH BIAS 📈 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 LIVE MARKET SNAPSHOT (London Time) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔴 Current Spot Price ➜ 157.19 – 157.22 📉 Weekly Low (01 May) ➜ 155.96 (suspected BoJ intervention spike) 📈 Weekly High (30 Apr) ➜ 160.66 (intervention trigger zone breached) 🕰️ Price as of ➜ ~17:25 London Time, 05 May 2026 📊 Daily Open ➜ 157.20 📈 Daily Change ➜ +0.10% (+0.16 pips) 📅 Monthly Change ➜ JPY strengthened ~1.54% in 30 days 📅 Annual Change ➜ USD/JPY +7.82% YoY (vs 145.67 one year ago) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔫 THIEF TRADE SETUP ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 ENTRY ZONE: Enter at any comfortable market price level — current price ~157.19. Use a limit order, market order, or wait for a retest of intraday support. Patience is the thief's greatest weapon. 🗡️ 🏆 FINAL TARGET (Swing Traders): 📍 159.000 — This is the Thief OG's Final Target ⚠️ WHY 159.000? Price approaches a major multi-session resistance cluster. Overbought conditions historically develop near this zone. Institutional traps and sentiment reversals tend to form here. A strong trend change signal emerges around this level. Smart money exits here — so should you. 💰 📦 TARGET 1 (Day Traders): 📍 158.500 — Take partial profits or full exit here. Lock in gains before the resistance zone tightens its grip. 🛑 STOP LOSS — THIEF STYLE: 📍 155.500 (Thief Master SL) Placed firmly below last week's suspected BoJ intervention low of 155.96. A clean structural break below this would signal a change in the game plan. ⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES — READ CAREFULLY, THIEF FAMILY: Dear Ladies and Gentlemen — Thief OG Crew 🎩🥷 💬 TP is YOUR decision. Take profits when YOU feel the time is right. 💬 SL is YOUR decision. Protect your capital at YOUR chosen risk level. 💬 Never blindly follow one target or one stop. Markets are fluid — be fluid too. 💬 If price moves in your favour — move your SL to breakeven like a professional. 💬 Make money, then TAKE money. That is the Thief Way. 🏴‍☠️ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌐 RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH — JPY UNIVERSE ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 OANDA:EURJPY — ~175.55 🔗 Correlation: POSITIVE & STRONG EUR/JPY is the highest volume JPY cross pair. When USD/JPY pushes higher, EUR/JPY tends to follow. Watch EUR/JPY as a confirmation signal for yen weakness direction. A breakout above 176.00 on EUR/JPY would be a green light for USD/JPY bulls. 📌 OANDA:GBPJPY — "The Gorilla" 🦍 🔗 Correlation: POSITIVE — High Volatility Cross GBP/JPY carries the widest pip range of all major JPY crosses. It amplifies USD/JPY moves significantly — great for confirmation. If GBP/JPY is bullish, expect USD/JPY to follow or lead the move. Watch 200.00 – 202.00 as key resistance cluster for GBP/JPY. 📌 OANDA:AUDJPY — ~114.30 – 114.50 🔗 Correlation: POSITIVE with risk-on sentiment AUD/JPY is a risk sentiment barometer. Rising AUD/JPY = risk-on = yen weakening = USD/JPY bullish environment. Watch for AUD/JPY to hold above 113.50 support as a bullish signal. 📌 OANDA:EURUSD — ~1.1699 🔗 Correlation: NEGATIVE (Inverse to USD/JPY) A weakening EUR/USD = stronger USD = USD/JPY bullish tailwind. Currently EUR/USD is under pressure — a positive backdrop for our trade. 📌 OANDA:USDCHF — ~0.7913 🔗 Correlation: POSITIVE (both USD-based pairs) USD/CHF and USD/JPY often move in sync. Watch USD/CHF for dollar strength confirmation signals. 📌 OANDA:CADJPY | OANDA:NZDJPY | OANDA:CHFJPY 🔗 Correlation: MIXED — monitor as supplementary yen crosses If all JPY cross pairs are rising together, it signals broad yen weakness and confirms the fundamental bullish bias for USD/JPY. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📰 LIVE FUNDAMENTAL & ECONOMIC FACTORS (What The Market Is Actually Saying — No Bias, Just Facts) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🏦 1. BANK OF JAPAN (BoJ) — April 2026 Decision ✅ BoJ held its short-term policy rate UNCHANGED at 0.75% This is the highest BoJ rate level since September 1995. Decision passed 6–3 — three board members dissented, calling for a hike to 1.00%. BoJ raised FY2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8% (from 1.9%). BoJ trimmed FY2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (from 1.0%). MARKET IMPACT ➜ Rate hold preserves the wide US–Japan interest rate differential. This differential remains the primary structural driver keeping USD/JPY elevated. 🏦 2. FEDERAL RESERVE (Fed) — May 2026 Decision ✅ Fed held US interest rates UNCHANGED at their current elevated level. Both central banks on hold = rate differential stays wide = dollar stays supported vs yen. Market participants expect at least 50 bps of BoJ hikes through the full year 2026. Next expected BoJ rate hike: October 2026 (consensus forecast). MARKET IMPACT ➜ Wide rate gap (US rate well above BoJ's 0.75%) continues to attract carry trade flows into USD/JPY. 🇯🇵 3. JAPANESE GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION — CRITICAL LIVE EVENT 🚨 Last Thursday (30 April 2026): USD/JPY reached 160.66 — breaching the key 160.00 psychological threshold. 🚨 Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a "FINAL WARNING" against yen selling. 🚨 Suspected BoJ/MoF intervention caused the yen to surge 3% — USD/JPY crashed to 155.50. 🚨 Reuters reported Japan may have spent approximately 5.48 trillion yen (~$35 billion USD) in support of the yen. 🚨 Japanese officials have NOT formally confirmed intervention. ⚠️ TRADERS ALERT: Tokyo typically executes MULTIPLE ROUNDS of yen-buying intervention. ⚠️ A second wave of intervention remains a live and active risk above 158.50 – 159.50. ⚠️ US–Japan coordination to jointly support the yen has also been discussed in markets. MARKET IMPACT ➜ The 159.00 – 160.00 zone is a high-risk/high-caution area. The Thief's final target at 159.000 is deliberately placed BEFORE this danger zone. 💥 4. GEOPOLITICAL FACTOR — MIDDLE EAST / STRAIT OF HORMUZ 🛢️ US-Iran tensions have escalated over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities have stated the waterway will remain closed. US President Donald Trump pledged action to free vessels blocked in the strait. Iranian missile strikes against US naval vessels near the strait have been reported. Rising Middle East tensions = rising oil prices (crude currently ~$105.66) = JPY under additional pressure (Japan is a major oil importer — higher oil = wider current account deficit = structural yen weakness). MARKET IMPACT ➜ Rising energy prices structurally weaken the yen and support USD/JPY on dips. 📊 5. TECHNICAL PICTURE — KEY LEVELS 🔵 50-Day EMA ➜ ~158.44 (key near-term dynamic support) 🔵 200-Day EMA ➜ ~155.10 (major long-term structural support) 🔴 Key Resistance Zone ➜ 158.50 – 160.00 (intervention + overbought cluster) 🟡 Stochastic RSI ➜ Hovering mid-50s — recovering momentum, not yet overbought 🟢 Current Price ➜ 157.19 — holding above 50-Day EMA = bullish near-term bias intact 📅 6. UPCOMING MARKET EVENTS — CALENDAR WATCH 📌 US Factory Orders Data — this week 📌 ISM Services PMI — Tuesday 📌 US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) — FRIDAY (HIGH IMPACT — major volatility event) 🔥 📌 Tokyo CPI Data — watch closely (above-target inflation could boost yen) 📌 Any further BoJ/MoF verbal intervention statements 📌 Strait of Hormuz geopolitical developments (daily monitoring required) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ THIEF TRADER STYLE — WISDOM, MOTIVATION & MINDSET ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💬 "Every loss is tuition. Every winner is graduation. Keep paying for the education — it compounds." 🎓📈 💬 "To the Thief OG family worldwide — from London to Tokyo, New York to Sydney — we do not gamble. We calculate. We execute. We protect. Trade smart. Stay liquid. Stay free." 🌍💰 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🙏 If this idea helped you — smash that 👍 LIKE button 💬 Drop a comment — share your view, your TP, your SL 🔔 Follow for more Thief-style trade ideas across Forex & Commodities 🥷 Stay Disciplined. Stay Dangerous. Happy Trading, Thief OGs! 💹🏴‍☠️ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
by The-Thief
USDJPY |HUGE 400+ PIP UPSIDE | WAIT FIRST |Q2 | W19 | D5 | Y26 |📈Q2 | W19 | D5 | Y26 | 📊USDJPY | FRGNT DAILY FORECAST | 💡HUGE 400+ PIP UPSIDE | ⚠️ | WAIT FIRST | 🔍 Analysis Framework This forecast is built using an advanced adaptation of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured and disciplined approach: • Marking Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ • Defining a clear, controlled trading range from those zones 📐 • Refining entries on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 • Waiting for confirmed Break of Structure (BoS) before execution ✅ This process ensures precision, removes emotional decision-making, and keeps me aligned with the overall market narrative. 💡 Core Philosophy “Capital management, discipline, and consistency create longevity.” A strong risk-to-reward model, paired with high-probability execution, is the foundation of sustainable trading 📈🔐 ⚠️ Understanding Losses "Losses are part of the game" — a mathematical certainty 🎲 They don’t define performance. Nor do they define you as a Trader. They are managed, reviewed, and used as evidence for growth 📊 🙏 Final Note Appreciate you taking the time to review today’s forecast. Stay disciplined 🎯 Protect your capital 🔐 — FRGNT 🚀📈 📌 Disclaimer This content is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It reflects my personal approach to the markets — a tested framework that has supported my own journey toward consistent profitability in currency trading. Please understand that any forecasts shared are not financial advice. I will be looking for confirmation in line with my setup model and specific entry criteria from the key areas identified on the chart. All analysis, whether presented via image or video, is shared strictly for educational insight and is not intended to breach any TradingView House Rules. FX:USDJPY
Long
by JCFRGNT
USD/JPY Market Outlook | Resistance Break & Trend FlowUSD/JPY — "THE NINJA" 💴💵 Forex Market | Day Trade & Swing Trade Opportunity | Bullish Setup🎯 ASSET: USD/JPY — The Dollar vs. The Japanese Yen ⚔️ NICKNAME: "THE NINJA" — Silent, precise, and deadly when it moves 📅 DATE: Wednesday, 29 April 2026 | 🕐 London Time (UK)📊 LIVE MARKET SNAPSHOT — AS OF TODAY 📍 Current Price: ~159.82 (+0.12% on the session) 📈 Weekly Range: 159.075 (low) — 159.795 (high) 🏆 2026 High: 160.40 (the fortress wall) 🔒 Consolidation Zone Active: 157.50 — 159.50 for 5+ weeks 📉 12-Month Change: JPY is down ~11.71% vs USD — the yen has been bleeding out slowly 📐 200-Day Moving Average: Sitting near 153.80 — price is trading far above it, confirming the dominant bullish trend structure 🚀 TRADE PLAN — BULLISH BREAKOUT CONFIRMED 🟢 Bias: Bullish — Breakout mode activated. The Ninja is ready to sprint. 🎯 Entry: Flexible — enter at any price level that fits your risk profile and account management rules. The market is coiling like a spring below 160.00, and pressure is building. 🏹 Target: 161.000 This is where the 🚔 Police Force (aka major institutional resistance) is waiting with handcuffs The 161.000 zone is a confluence of overbought signals, historical rejection prints, a potential trend change trigger, and a classic bull trap zone This level aligns with the key 161.95 resistance noted by major technical desks Smart money exits before the crowd realizes — escape with your profits before the reversal party starts 🎉 🛑 Stop Loss (Thief SL): 159.200 Set below current consolidation support and recent session lows Below 159.00, multiple technical desks flag a test of 158.40 as next probable zone This is the Thief's escape hatch — not a wall you lean on forever ⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTICE — READ THIS, THIEF OG's 🦹 🎩 Dear Ladies & Gentlemen — The Thief Trader Family: Your TP is your decision. Your SL is your decision. The market doesn't care about our plans — it only respects price, liquidity, and momentum. Take profits when YOU feel it's right. Protect your capital at all times. Never let a winner become a loser because of greed. Make money. Take money. That's the Thief Code. 🔗 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH — THE NINJA FAMILY Monitor these pairs alongside USD/JPY — they move in JPY-correlated clusters and will give you confluence signals or early warning shots: 💵 Dollar-Denominated JPY Pairs: 💴 USD/JPY — The main stage. The lead actor. Already discussed above. Watch 160.00 as the psychological battleground. A clean close above 160.21 opens the path toward 161.95 and beyond. 🌍 Cross-JPY Pairs (Non-Dollar): 🇪🇺 EUR/JPY — Currently setting up an ascending triangle formation. The euro is consolidating near its own resistance zone. A EUR/JPY breakout would add fuel to the broader JPY-weakness theme and confirm the Ninja's bullish run. Watch closely — if EUR/JPY breaks, USD/JPY usually joins the party fast. 🇬🇧 GBP/JPY — Already broken out above the 200.00 psychological handle. GBP/JPY leading the charge is a strong confluent signal that yen weakness is real and institutional. GBP/USD is currently around 1.3520, which also gives context to relative dollar strength. 🇦🇺 AUD/JPY — Holding losses below 114.50 after the BoJ decision. AUD/JPY is the "carry trade" canary — if it breaks down, watch out for broader JPY pairs to get dragged. If it stabilizes and recovers, bulls stay in control. 📌 Key Correlation Rule: When carry trades unwind (panic-driven yen buying), ALL JPY crosses crash together — EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY fall in sync. So if geopolitical risk explodes suddenly, your correlated portfolio gets hit from all sides simultaneously. Manage your exposure across JPY pairs carefully. 🧠🌐 LIVE FUNDAMENTAL & ECONOMIC FACTORS — RIGHT NOW 📰🏦 Bank of Japan (BoJ) — April 2026 Decision (JUST HAPPENED): BoJ kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% — a 6-3 vote. Rate stays at the highest level since September 1995. Three hawkish dissenters (Takata, Tamura, Nakagawa) voted for a hike to 1.00% — this is a rising internal pressure cooker 🔥 BoJ raised its FY2026 core inflation outlook to 2.8% (was 1.9%) — energy price pass-through from the Middle East conflict is biting BoJ cut its FY2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (was 1.0%) — stagflationary pressures are real Governor Ueda reaffirmed the gradual tightening path — future hikes are coming, timing is data-dependent BoJ policy remains: raise rates only when economic conditions allow — this restraint is what's keeping the yen weak for now 💵 US Federal Reserve — Decision Due This Week: Fed rate decision is a major market-moving event happening right now. Current Fed funds rate sits around 3.75%. Markets are broadly expecting the Fed to hold steady — any hawkish surprise = USD strength = USD/JPY higher 📈 A dovish surprise or rate cut signal = USD/JPY pressure lower 📉 The rate differential between US (3.75%) and Japan (0.75%) is a massive 300 basis points — this gap is the core engine powering USD/JPY's elevated levels ⚔️ Middle East Conflict — The Wildcard: The ongoing US-Iran conflict has sent global energy prices surging — crude oil up sharply Japan imports almost all of its energy — surging oil prices devastate Japan's trade balance and weaken the yen structurally The Middle East situation is the primary reason JPY cannot find safe-haven appeal despite global risk-off moments The yen is suffering from what market analysts call a terms-of-trade shock — the energy import bill is exploding 🛡️ Japanese Finance Ministry (MoF) — Intervention Risk: Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has publicly warned multiple times that authorities stand ready to intervene in FX markets "at any time" Historical precedent: Japan spent $62 billion defending the yen in 2024 — the largest intervention campaign since 1998 The key trigger zone for intervention is widely tracked at 160.00 — 161.00 on the upside Intervention follows three conditions: speed of move matters more than level, coordination with G7 partners, and political will from the new government 161.000 = Target level = Prime intervention danger zone — this is exactly why we book profits there 🎯 📊 Macro Data Pulse: Japan's 10-year JGB yield has risen to around 2.35-2.39% — the highest closing levels since 1997 — yen debt costs rising US 10-year Treasury yields remain elevated around 4.00%+ — keeping carry trade flows alive The carry trade math: borrow yen at 0.75%, buy US Treasuries at ~4.00%, pocket ~3.25% annually — institutional flows continue supporting USD/JPY at these high levels Japan's core CPI is pushing toward 2.8% — imported inflation from oil is the driver, not domestic demand — structurally complex for BoJ 📅 Upcoming High-Impact Events to Monitor: 🇺🇸 Fed Rate Decision — This week, London Time — massive volatility trigger 🇯🇵 Japan CPI data — due shortly — will determine BoJ's next move trajectory 🇺🇸 US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) — next release cycle — dollar direction setter 🌍 Middle East ceasefire/escalation headlines — can trigger 100+ pip moves in minutes on USD/JPY 🎭 THIEF TRADER STYLE — WISDOM FROM THE VAULT 🏴‍☠️ "The market is the greatest thief of all — it steals from the impatient, the greedy, and the undisciplined. Our job is to rob it back — with precision, patience, and a plan." 🥷 "You don't need to catch every pip. You need to catch the RIGHT pips and walk away clean." 💰 "Risk management isn't optional — it's the difference between a legend and a statistic." ⚔️ "The best traders don't predict the market. They read it, respect it, then take what it offers." 🎯 "Stay sharp. Stay humble. Stay profitable. The Ninja doesn't fight the market — the Ninja moves WITH it." Make money. Take money. That's the Thief Trader Way. Trade safe. Trade smart. The Ninja never chases — The Ninja waits. ⚔️
by The-Thief
4
#USDJPY: Still Extremely Bearish On USDJPY 12/03/2026✴️ On January 23rd, 2026, the price experienced a decline to a significant level, specifically a premium selling zone at 159.343. While this initially suggested a robust bearish continuation, the price subsequently encountered substantial support at 152.20 and demonstrated a strong reversal. The current market dynamics are significantly influenced by ongoing geopolitical conflicts, which have contributed to the US dollar achieving a recent higher high. This development has effectively invalidated our prior selling zone at 159.343. Furthermore, the Japanese Yen (JPY) has been trading at an all-time low and may experience further depreciation if a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East does not occur. ✴️ We maintain our commitment to a short position on USDJPY, with an estimated price target of 160.34, at which point we anticipate a rejection. The current price action is characterized by momentum rather than volume, which inherently introduces risk, as it is primarily driven by geopolitical or fundamental statements rather than tangible data such as trading volume or economic indicators. In the forthcoming weeks, we may observe a rebound in the JPY, potentially influenced by intervention from the Bank of Japan; however, this remains a speculative consideration. ✴️ Initiating a sell order at 160.25 with a stop loss at 163.25 is deemed optimal and advisable. A wider stop loss is necessary to allow sufficient room for the price to move favorably. The primary target is set at 152.00, and we strongly recommend prioritizing this initial take profit. A secondary target is established at 142.00 as a long-term objective. This strategy has the potential to yield over 800 pips if successful. Entry Criteria: 🔺Sell Entry: 160-161 🔺Stop Loss: 163.35 🔺Take Profit: 152.00 🔺Second Take Profit: 142.00 We encourage you to express your support and provide your insights in the comments section. Team Setupsfx_
Short
by Setupsfx_
20
USDJPY sell - 06/04/2026   🗓 March 30, 2026 — Japan’s top currency diplomat (Vice-Minister of Finance for International Affairs) Atsushi Mimura made the strongest warning in recent times. He stated that speculative moves are intensifying not only in the oil market but also in the currency market. If the situation continues, “the time may come for decisive action” (“decisive action” / “decisive measures”). The market interprets this as a direct signal of readiness for real intervention (buying yen / selling dollars). ⚠️ On the same day, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, speaking in parliament, emphasized that movements in the yen exchange rate strongly affect the economy and inflation. The BOJ will closely monitor this and adjust policy (including possible rate hikes) to achieve its goals for growth and prices. He did not rule out raising the rate already at the upcoming meeting (April 2026) if the weak yen further fuels inflation. 160 is a sensitive level for the Bank of Japan. The most important event in April ⚠️ 🗓 April 8 (Wednesday) 👛 Wages (Labor Cash Earnings y/y or Monthly Labour Survey) for February — a key indicator for the BOJ, as wages influence inflation and consumption. 🗓 April 27–28, 2026 — Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting. ⌛ Decision on the policy rate (currently 0.75%) and the updated Outlook Report (economic and inflation forecast). ⌛ Press conference by Governor Kazuo Ueda on April 28. ⭐️ Markets expect a possible rate hike (probability estimated high — up to 60–70% in some forecasts), especially if inflation and wage data turn out strong amid a weak yen and oil shock. This could become a trigger for yen strengthening and reduced pressure for intervention. I expect movement on the wage news. Either a spike and currency intervention Or the market will start pricing in the wage data (towards rate hikes) If Trump does not bomb Kharkiv — there will be an additional impulse. (the only unpredictable variable, so let’s not forget about caution). The arrival of the second landing ship is expected in at least a couple of weeks, there is still time. On the technical side, on the Yen futures we see that it is being stubbornly bought up from this level. I sold roughly from the same level (where the limit sell orders were placed).
Short
by SinnSeed
USDJPY | Q2 | W18 | D29 | Y26 | LOTS TO SAY ON USDJPY BE SMART!📈Q2 | W18 | D29 | Y26 | 📊USDJPY | FRGNT DAILY CHART ANALYSIS | UNCHANGED FROM W17 💡DAILY RANGE | WEEKLY ORDER BLOCK TECHNICALS SHORT BUT | DXY TECHNICALS LONG | CONFLICT BETWEEN HTF OB SHORT & DXY LONG ! | RANGE IDENT | FAVOURED LONGS INLINE WITH DXY LONG TERM LONG BIAS ! SHORT WITH CAUTION- MANAGE IMMEDIATELY 🔍 Analysis Framework This forecast is built using an advanced adaptation of Smart Money Concepts, with a structured and disciplined approach: • Marking Key Points of Interest (POIs) on Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ • Defining a clear, controlled trading range from those zones 📐 • Refining entries on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 • Waiting for confirmed Break of Structure (BoS) before execution ✅ This process ensures precision, removes emotional decision-making, and keeps me aligned with the overall market narrative. 💡 Core Philosophy “Capital management, discipline, and consistency create longevity.” A strong risk-to-reward model, paired with high-probability execution, is the foundation of sustainable trading 📈🔐 ⚠️ Understanding Losses "Losses are part of the game" — a mathematical certainty 🎲 They don’t define performance. Nor do they define you as a Trader. They are managed, reviewed, and used as evidence for growth 📊 🙏 Final Note Appreciate you taking the time to review today’s forecast. Stay disciplined 🎯 Protect your capital 🔐 — FRGNT 🚀📈 📌 Disclaimer This content is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It reflects my personal approach to the markets — a tested framework that has supported my own journey toward consistent profitability in currency trading. Please understand that any forecasts shared are not financial advice. I will be looking for confirmation in line with my setup model and specific entry criteria from the key areas identified on the chart. All analysis, whether presented via image or video, is shared strictly for educational insight and is not intended to breach any TradingView House Rules. FX:USDJPY
by JCFRGNT