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USDTRY

ridethepig | TRY Market Commentary 2020.04.29All eyes on risk markets and the recent rebound reaching its final stages of exhaustion. USDTRY not giving any gains back, continuing to attack the 7.00 important psychological resistance. Buyers calmly finishing their preparations for an appropriate welcome of the next risk headline, while local banks try everything they can to defend. Happy to sit long USDTRY, if we do not see concrete measures around the Fed swap line then expect macro players to stick the knife into Turkey once more. There is little to see to the downside, I will actively look to add longs on any dips should we see them towards 6.90xx otherwise to the topside we have very very soft resistance at 7.00. A break above will open 7.235x and 7.80x main targets. The move played is a demonstration of a winning macro one, the main line comes down to the pursuit of safety; capital is forced to flee a dictatorship, but the flight itself can be beset with difficulties as more and varied restrictions are conjured. Tread extremely carefully for those invested in Turkey. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
Ascending scallopNote USDTRY's 92 percent negative correlation with Crude Oil on weekly. Crude oil needs to to trend up for USDTRY to fall. Long terms trends seem to be effected by Crude Oil, as is the case with Mexican Peso and Thai Bath with which heavily Lira correlates (90 and 88 percent). It also has 97 positive correlation with the Natural Gas (XNGUSD) on 4 hrs. Price formed ascending scallop pattern (Lira trends in scallop series), classified as short term bullish continuation pattern. Ascending scallop reversals perform better than continuations. Narrow scallops take less time to reach ultimate high than short ones. Tall patterns perform better than short ones. Scallops get narrower and shorter when compared with prior scallops in series. For more, refer to Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart patterns. Chapter 41. Scallops, Ascending. Price is moving in rising channel. Uptrend on weekly. Intermediate pullback. For trend change, channel needs to be broken to the downside. Since price broke May roof it should eventually hit R5 (7.42) - I marked the target. But first we should reach weekly S5, after breaking weekly support S4. Price below May A down pivot and will make a loop swing below it. The size of that loop might vary. The loop's bottom will be either at weekly S5 or at yearly R4. Top correlation 4 hrs 1 USDTRY - EURTRY 99.0% 2 USDTRY - GBPTRY 97.2% 3 USDTRY - EURCZK -92.2% 4 USDTRY - USDTHB 87.5% 5 USDTRY - XNGUSD 87.2% 6 USDTRY - USDCZK -85.8% 7 USDTRY - GBPCHF 84.1% 8 USDTRY - EURGBP -84.1% 9 USDTRY - GBPCAD 82.2% 10 USDTRY - GBPNOK 81.6% Top correlation 1 day 1 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.2% 2 USDTRY - EURJPY -91.3% 3 USDTRY - AUDNZD 88.9% 4 USDTRY - CHFJPY -88.4% 5 USDTRY - AUDCAD 87.4% 6 USDTRY - AUDCHF 86.5% 7 USDTRY - EURTRY 83.6% 8 USDTRY - AUDSGD 83.3% 9 USDTRY - AUDUSD 81.2% 10 USDTRY - EURSGD -80.3% Top correlation 1 week 1 USDTRY - GBPMXN 95.0% 2 USDTRY - XTIUSD -92.9% 3 USDTRY - XBRUSD -92.8% 4 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.5% 5 USDTRY - EURTRY 92.5% 6 USDTRY - USDZAR 92.3% 7 USDTRY - EURZAR 91.5% 8 USDTRY - NOKSEK -91.5% 9 USDTRY - USDMXN 90.1% 10 USDTRY - CADCHF -89.7%
Long
by ICFX
7
#USDTRY #USDTL #USD #TL $ #ELLIOTWAVEusdtry elliottwave perspective view Alternative 1) If it sees around 6.50 (green area) and turns up and is permanent on the red line (above 7.30), the rise started. Alternative 2) If it falls below the green area, it sees around 6.00 (pink area), the rise begins. 7.30 is also important in this. 7.30 must be exceeded for real rise. Alternative 3) Cannot hold in the 1st Pink area. It falls to around 4.50 (2nd Pink area). After this fall, the journey to AY begins. my favorite 2nd alternative
by elliottwave_auc
USDTRY: WeeklyAs you see, current bullish move was already predictable from October 2019 using TD (DeMark) breakout projection no. 2. Now, price is facing very strong support - May central pivot range (CPR), May Camarilla S3 reversal level, yearly classic S2 pivot, yearly Fibonacci S3 pivot (did not plot the last 2 to have it more clear - but they are there) all at same point, confluence with May S3 reversal level. If this level holds and price is rejected, what is also possible, it will bounce up and continue in uptrend or range above monthly CPR. If price breaks through monthly pivot range, as it is moving quite decisively into it and we have got that weekly pin bar reversal on top, short trade may be taken to former yearly roof R4, now support. At any case May CPR (I highlighted it black) is a fulcrum which holds the price now. If it is pierced through, that is it. After reaching highs, Turkish lira makes those descending ranging tails. What might be a scenario here. But there is a concern - price missed April pivot and April CPR, did not even test those. Such things occur at the onset of strong trends. Next month (or be it a day, week, depending on chart) price pulls back to the pivot and continues higher. So it is very important what happens at May CPR (that highlighted black zone). Price should move lower and touch S3 - May pivot. Then we will react depending on how it will behave after that. S4 is May floor. May roof R4 was pierced, that should be noted too. THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVISE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
by ICFX
1
USDTRY 4 hrsI would consider buying USDTRY before the European session starts tomorrow morning 6-7 am UTC when spread is the smallest. The move is likely to end CAM R5, we broke the April roof. By the end of April we should be at ca 7.255. There also other technical reasons for this on which I will not elaborate. This pair has very high spread in the night and it will not move in the night much anyway. This is no financial advise. Top Absolute Correlation 4 hrs 1 USDTRY - USDZAR 93.0% 2 USDTRY - USDCNH 92.2% 3 USDTRY - USDCAD 91.5% 4 USDTRY - ZARJPY -91.5% 5 USDTRY - EURTRY 91.3% 6 USDTRY - EURZAR 90.8% 7 USDTRY - SPA35 -89.6% 8 USDTRY - CADJPY -88.5% 9 USDTRY - BIO30 88.3% 10 USDTRY - CNI30 87.9%
Long
by ICFX
4
USDTRY 1D long idea Important ! Any SWAP agreement with international central banks, such as ( FED , PBOC ..) . or any IMF agreement ( even it's a very very weak possibility ) will make this analysis cancelled > This is not an investment recommendation or any call to buy or sell It is just an analysis based on a study of the history of price movment behavior which may not be a necessarily reason for the success of the structure or repetition. So please make your decision based on your own vision . To protect the capital and manage your trades and trading successfully the maximum loss in each trade for the same pair or commodity in the same direction should not exceed ( 2% ) of your trading capital . Good luck >>
Long
by Golden_Spiral
2
USDTRY World Class Capture by Harmonic TraderHi all, That is not investment advice, All the details whatever you want is given linked below (19.12.2019) ---> price action is 5.91 and second link is date on 18 March 2020 (AB=CD confirmation) 05.05.2020 --> price action is 7.08x on USDTRY --> Crab is working on it on RSI ---> Cypher is working on it From now on especially from this week my main expection is take a break for price action on 1.618AB=CD 7.25x level because of expecting pullback AB=CD (6.56) if the price action does not shame me my work will hit %100 accuracy Pay attention to timing for my work For your info. Harminc Trader
by bariscoskun