Get started

Volatility

NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/10/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25691.50 - PR Low: 25669.50 - NZ Spread: 49.0 Key scheduled economic events: 14:00 | FOMC Economic Projections - FOMC Statement - Fed Interest Rate Decision 14:30 | FOMC Press Conference Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM). - Session Open ATR: 396.33 - Volume: 19K - Open Int: 313K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -2.7% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26521 - Mid: 25264 - Short: 24008 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Long
by mv3trader5
Silver at Extremes: RSI Signals Haven’t Missed in 20 YearsTVC:SILVER has delivered a massive breakout — up +109.9% YTD — but the weekly RSI is now pushing into one of the most extreme zones seen in two decades. Historically, every major spike into the 80–85 RSI band has preceded cooling periods, consolidations, or full reversals. The chart makes the pattern clear: • Each parabolic advance since 2004 ended with RSI extremes similar to today. • Price is testing the same overextension zone seen at the 2011 blow-off top and the 2020 surge. • Weekly RSI rarely stays above 80 for long — momentum tends to reset before the next leg can form. This doesn’t guarantee a top. But when a commodity doubles in a single year and hits long-term RSI ceilings simultaneously, risk/reward becomes asymmetric. Silver’s trend remains powerful — the question now is how sustainable the slope is.
TVC:SILVERShort
by OrbisInvestment
48
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/9/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25728.50 - PR Low: 25692.00 - NZ Spread: 81.5 Key scheduled economic events: 10:00 | JOLTs Job Openings 13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM). - Session Open ATR: 413.46 - Volume: 23K - Open Int: 310K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -2.7% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26521 - Mid: 25264 - Short: 24008 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Short
by mv3trader5
APP | New ALL TIME HIGHS Incoming | LONGAppLovin Corp. engages in the development and operation of a mobile marketing platform. It offers AppDiscovery, MAX, Adjust, and SparkLabs. Its software-based platform caters to mobile application developers to improve the marketing and monetization of applications. The company was founded by Andrew Karam, John Krystynak, and Adam Foroughi in 2011 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, CA.t represents results from other non-reportable segments and corporate-related charges. The company was founded by Robert Norton Noyce and Gordon Earle Moore on July 18, 1968 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, CA.
NASDAQ:APPLong
by DivergenceSeeker
$IWM — The Rate-Cut Leverage PlayLast week delivered one of those classic market paradoxes where everything that should be bearish suddenly became bullish: layoffs → bullish weak labor data → bullish flat inflation → bullish Why? Because the market has now fully locked its focus on one thing only: a Federal Reserve rate cut. Volatility was sharp, price action even sharper, and the headlines kept flipping faster than most traders could adjust. Let’s break down what actually happened — and what matters for the week ahead. IWM GEX for 01/16/2025 expiration using TanukiTrade Options Overlay GRID System and the GEX Profile indicator If the Fed cuts, small caps win the most — and last week proved it again. IWM broke above the 250 call gamma level Short-term gamma squeeze potential Closed at new all-time highs This is where rate-cut optimism expresses itself with maximum torque. If the Fed turns dove on Wednesday → IWM can easily extend.
AMEX:IWM
by TanukiTrade
10
AUDUSD – Can the Winning Streak Continue?AUDUSD has been a star performer in the G10 FX space over the last 2 weeks as it rides the wave of shifting market interest rate expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve moving into early 2026. This has seen it trade from a low of 0.6421 on November 21st up to close the first week of December at 0.6639, a 2-month high and a mere 1% away from its 2025 peak of 0.6710 seen on September 17th. Looking forward, 2 events in the week ahead are likely to stress test these interest rate outlooks of the market and could generate extra volatility for the AUDUSD currency pair moving into Friday’s close. The first event is the RBA interest rate decision which is released tomorrow at 0330 GMT, with the press conference starting at 0430 GMT. The Australian central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold, so potentially no surprises there, however FX traders may be focused on how hawkish Governor Bullock’s comments are in the press conference, with recent stronger wage growth and spending data seeing the market start to consider a rate hike being the RBA’s next move at some stage in 2026. Then on Wednesday the focus shifts to the interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve which is released at 1900 GMT. They are fully expected to cut interest rates 25bps (0.25%), so if this wasn’t to happen it would be a big shock. If the Fed do cut interest rates, then the next big challenge for traders is to digest the tone of comments made by Chairman Powell in the press conference which starts at 1930 GMT. Traders will be listening to see if he sticks to a more hawkish script, emphasising upside inflation risks in 2026, a potential positive for the US dollar (AUDUSD lower) or now that his term as Chairman is due to end in February, he bows to political pressure and is more dovish, highlighting the possibility for further rate cuts moving forward in order to support a slowing US labour market, a move which could lead to a weaker US dollar (AUDUSD higher). With so much for AUDUSD traders to navigate this week, assessing the technical outlook and identifying some potential support and resistance levels to monitor should prices start to move more aggressively could be useful. Technical Update: Can the 11 Day Winning Streak Continue? The latest activity in AUDUSD has seen a fresh bout of AUD support and outperformance aligning with a period of USD selling pressure. This has resulted in a phase of AUDUSD price strength since the November 21st session low, leading to an advance of more than 3.5%. As the chart below shows, the latest price strength has seen successful closing breaks above resistance at 0.6628 materialise, a level which was equal to the September 24th high. This could be viewed by some as an indication of the strength of buying support for AUDUSD at present and the potential for moves to higher levels in future sessions. However, look at the chart again and you will also notice that since the November 21st low, each session has managed to close above its daily opening price, meaning there have been 11 consecutive ‘green’ or positive daily candles posted, possibly even 12 if the latest candle sees a close on Monday above the day’s opening price. From our analysis of historical data, this is unprecedented within AUDUSD and may introduce a note of caution regarding whether over-extended upside price conditions are evident and if price gains are going to be able to extend further. Just because a currency pair has seen such an extended advance doesn’t guarantee the direction of the next move, be it to the up or the downside. Therefore, a closer focus on identifying support and resistance levels to monitor may be required this week to help gauge the next directional themes for AUDUSD. Potential Resistance Levels: . The latest closing break above the September 24th high at 0.6628 saw a new upside extreme posted on Friday at 0.6649, and having encountered sellers at this level before, they may be found there once more. As such, this 0.6649 peak might prove to be the first resistance focus in the week ahead. If successful closing breaks above the 0.6649 level were to materialise, it is possible the current phase of strength can extend further. This could lead traders to then focus on the September 17th high at 0.6710 as the next resistance point. Potential Support Levels: It remains to be seen if the current 11-day period of positive candles since the November 21st low can continue or not, but if breaks of support levels were to materialise, it might lead to concerns of a phase of price weakness developing. Having seen such a strong rally emerge from Friday’s 0.6605 low, it is possible this could prove to be the first support level to monitor for the coming week. Much will continue to depend on market sentiment and price trends but closes below the 0.6605 support may lead to a phase of price weakness. This could open the possibility to test 0.6562, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, possibly even lower. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
December 8 - December 12 2025: Disappointment ImminentThe market has not changed too much since last week, where my assessment that the market was in a neutral state turned out to be mostly accurate. I’m continuing to refine my analysis so I have changed some things heading into this week which should help provide even clearer signals. With the rate decision in focus, it will be important to consider the implications that a cut (which I am biased towards) vs unchanged rates will have on these indicators, as it will likely make the difference between the market continuing its bullish trend to end the year or if equities will continue to feel pressure from high interest rates and a slowing economy. 1. Macro Here we are seeing low demand for treasuries TVC:US10 and the dollar TVC:DXY while bond and equity put hedging has been unwinding. I think the current state of the market provides a clear signal of why the Fed needs to cut interest rates this month - dumping bonds while growth stagnates will make real yields surge and could cause the market to retreat from US assets altogether, which would be a worst-case scenario. I think the Fed has no choice but to keep cutting rates in order to keep yields down. Since the breakeven rate FRED:T5YIE was rising at the end of last week, a drop in the nominal yield TVC:US05Y now would send the real yield to lower lows. 2. FX Since the dollar can service as a funding or carry currency, I am comparing US rates to “carry” countries and the dollar index to other carry currencies in order to determine whether investors in this yield-seeking regime would be interested in dollars. Here you can see that compared to yields in Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia (not shown), US yields are underperforming, and as a result, the dollar is weakening against the respective currency indices TVC:AXY , TVC:CXY , TVC:ZXY This is my new indicator that normalizes carry country yields (GB, CA, SE, NZ, AU) vs safe haven yields (JP, CH, EU, & US), shown on the dashed line, and respective currency pairs on the dotted line in order to detect the risk regime. Here we are seeing that carry yields are elevated and the market is still chasing after them compared to rushing to funding currencies for yield or safety. Here is a comparison of funding countries. My expectation for this week is that 1. The market will still be seeking yield (risk-on) 2. If US yields & USD fall, it will lift carry trades vs USD (such as FX_IDC:CADUSD & OANDA:AUDUSD ) 3. Risk-on regime continues, which will boost US equities Of course, the opposite will play out if the Fed keeps rates high, however they need to keep foreign investors buying US debt in order to sustain our unsustainable debt for a little while longer. Leaving rates unchanged will spook investors about the trajectory of monetary policy and lead to higher yields. This is why I am quite confident we will see a rate cut and am explaining this scenario in more detail. 3. Risk Credit fear continues to ease, while risk-on tech bets AMEX:XLK recover against safety in consumer staples AMEX:XLP 4. Equity Comparison Tech is still battered compared to other sectors. A sign of tension will emerge if tech continues to underperform the market while the Fed is signaling continued monetary easing. This would point to a true change in sentiment in which the market may be bearish on Tech. If this were to happen, a major market correction could be on the horizon. 5. Bias I’ve changed a few things on this layout and moved the CVD indicators to my QQQ chart since they react better to regular market hours order flow. Here I have a Z-score indicator of CME_MINI:ES1! - CBOE:VX1! which shows that the equity regime for September so far is bullish. ADL is flattening out but is not giving a useful signal yet. I also changed the linear Historical Volatility indicator to a Z-score oscillator which shows HV is declining and moving back to its floor, which can also be seen on VIX. Since we are guaranteed to see a major volatility spike after the rate announcement, I think VIX may be choppy until then. What’s worth noting is that with HV (non-directional) at its floor (sensitive to any Vol spikes) and VIX back to its floor ahead of the rate announcement, this signals to me that equities may have more sensitivity to a downside movement. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ When viewed together, I think all of this sends an interesting message that points to divergence between Macro/FX and US equities. With the Fed cutting rates into slower growth and Tech underperforming, low HV/VIX makes equities vulnerable to a reduction in risk exposure. I think this is what we will see if rates are cut under the current regime. 1. Yields will fall, but TVC:DXY may hold steady if there is equity pressure in the US. 2. Risk-on yield-seeking trades in FX will continue. Dollar may hold up against other funding currencies but will fall against higher-yielding currencies 3. Tech will underperform 4. VIX catching a bid will correspond with US indices falling 5. Since global environment will still be risk-on, volatility will be limited to the US and may be less intense As always, the reason I post my analysis is to provide a reference point as the week unfolds, and to backtest my strategies for improvement. For now, my bias is low volatility until FOMC (likely sideways or upside drift) followed by downside later in the week.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ap769
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/8/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25770.00 - PR Low: 25719.50 - NZ Spread: 113.0 No key scheduled economic events Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM). - Session Open ATR: 426.48 - Volume: 21K - Open Int: 307K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -2.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26521 - Mid: 25264 - Short: 24008 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Long
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/5/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25648.75 - PR Low: 25608.50 - NZ Spread: 90.0 Key scheduled economic events: 10:00 | Core PCE Price Index (MoM|YoY) Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM) - Session Open ATR: 438.85 - Volume: 21K - Open Int: 306K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -2.5% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26636 - Mid: 25410 - Short: 23426 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Long
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/4/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25658.75 - PR Low: 25633.75 - NZ Spread: 56.0 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM) - Session Open ATR: 450.27 - Volume: 19K - Open Int: 304K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -2.7% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26636 - Mid: 25410 - Short: 23426 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025
by mv3trader5
How to Identify Liquidity in Chart with VOLUME Indicator Smart Money Concept is all about finding the liquidity . Liquidity analysis is the essential element of profitable trading SMC. In this article, I will teach you how to use volume indicator to identify liquidity - supply/demand clusters and hidden zones that move the market. First, let's discuss what exactly we mean by liquidity. Analysing any forex pair, you should know that orders of the market participants are not equally distributed among all the price levels. While some levels and the zones will lack the interest of the market players, some will attract huge trading volumes. We will call such zones - liquidity zones. To find these zones, you can execute volume analysis. By using volume indicator, we will look for volume spikes - it will indicate strong buying and selling activity. Examine NZDUSD chart on a daily time frame with default volume indicator being added. I highlighted a recent volume spike. The elevated volume level confirms that there was strong institutional participation in the formation of this candle. But you can see that this particular candle has quite a wide rage. So how do we know where exactly and on what levels liquidity concentrates? We will need to use another indicator to find liquidity zones - a volume profile. Here is what this indicator does. Think of the chart as a battlefield. The Volume Profile shows you exactly where the major fighting between buyers and sellers is taking place. It reveals the price levels where the most orders have been executed. While a classic volume indicator shows when volume occurred, it lights up the specific price levels where the most trading activity is concentrated. Analyzing Volume Profile on NZDUSD, we can easily find the exact zone where liquidity was concentrated. We simply take the entire range of a high volume candle and look for a volume profile spike within. To identify other liquidity zones, continue searching for volume spikes in Volume indicator. By the way, adding a Simple Moving Average on your Volume indicator will help you find these spikes easier. Here are 4 significant liquidity zones that I found using this method. Please, note that there are 3 high volume candles that were formed within the same liquidity zone. A combination of a classic Volume indicator and Volume Profile will help you to accurately identify the exact moments of volume increase and the price levels where this rise occurred. That will be a reliable strategy to find important liquidity zones. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
2
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/3/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25633.50 - PR Low: 25610.00 - NZ Spread: 52.5 Key scheduled economic events: 08:15 | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 09:45 | S&P Global Services PMI 10:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Session Open ATR: 469.32 - Volume: 24K - Open Int: 302K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -2.7% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26636 - Mid: 25410 - Short: 23426 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Long
by mv3trader5
XAUUSD | Gold Signal |Dec 3,2025📌 MARKET ASSESSMENT Gold in yesterday’s session continued to face selling pressure, correcting down to the 4160 zone before bouncing back strongly with a range of roughly 500 pips. Currently, the market is opening above the 4205 level, in a context where gold seems to be widening its volatility range despite previously breaking the short-term uptrend. However, overall, this may simply be a compression phase of the market. For today’s session, gold is expected to fluctuate within the 4150–4220 range. Personally, I still prioritize a long-term bullish bias, so I recommend a buy limit around the 4150 zone. The target is a move back to 4250 or even higher in the near future.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Richard1000pipsandmore
BTC: The 15-Year Prophecy (Hosoda Time & The Diagonal)There is a ghost in the machine. For the last few months, amidst the noise of breakouts and new highs, a specific signal has been flashing a warning that defies the rules of a standard Bull Market. It is a "glitch" in the data—a silence where there should be noise. Most are ignoring it. Some are confused by it. Today, we are going to try solving it. Below is the full evolution of the Bitcoin setup, from the Daily traps to the Macro truth, revealing why the "Silence" is actually the loudest signal we have ever seen. Part 1: The Micro Trap (1D Chart) Zooming into the daily timeframe, the structure of the decline is textbook. We are currently navigating Wave (4), but the context provided by the previous move is critical. The "Extended" Wave 3: The drop we just witnessed wasn't a standard correction; it was an impulsive sell-off where Wave 3 was extended. when the third wave extends, it confirming strong momentum in the direction of the trend. The bears are in control. Current Status (Wave 4): We seem to be in the middle of a Wave (4) relief rally, potentially unfolding as an ABC correction. Sub-waves 'a' and 'b' appear complete, with 'b' potentially establishing a local higher low. What's Next: We are likely waiting for Wave 'c' to expand upwards to potentially complete the structure. The Potential Resistance ($99k): If this structure holds, Wave 'c' might push towards the resistance confluence around $99,323. This area could serve as a ceiling for this corrective phase. The Downside Risk ($79k): Traders should remain cautious. If Wave (4) finds resistance near $99k, the Elliott Wave guidelines suggest a Wave (5) decline could follow. If that scenario plays out, the market might target the major support zone near $79,000. Part 2: The Time Anomaly (1W Chart) While the daily chart showed us the immediate price action, the Weekly chart reveals the true scale of the move. As discussed in previous updates, we are navigating a large-scale Irregular Flat Correction, and we are currently at the tail end of Wave (1) of the 5-wave impulse that makes up the larger C-Wave. So, the entire impulsive structure we just analyzed on the Daily chart? That was just the first leg of this Weekly move. ☁️ The Ichimoku Signal: Testing "Senkou Span B" Price action has now entered the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), a critical zone of turbulence. The Level: you can see candles trading inside the cloud. We have already tested the bottom support, specifically the Leading Span B (Senkou Span B). The Forecast: Hitting this level signals that Wave (1) is either ending or has already ended. However, the market rarely makes it easy. I am expecting a potential "False Breakout" below the Cloud to trigger panic, followed by a sharp reclamation. That fake-out would likely mark the bottom of Wave (1) and start of Wave (2). ⏳ The Time Anomaly: Why so fast? There is a strange disconnect in the "Time" dimension of this cycle compared to history (see picture). 2021 Cycle: In the previous bull run, the correction for Wave 1 typically took 70 days to cool the RSI down to 37. Current Cycle: We have smashed down to an RSI of 35.8 in just 42 days. The Question: Why is the market correcting nearly twice as fast as before? This "Time Compression" indicates the cycle is moving faster and more violently than we are used to. The "BBWP Mystery" Finally, look at the BBWP (Volatility) in the below picture. This presents a genuine anomaly. Throughout this cycle, we have seen contractions many times, yet the spectrum never reached the extreme 90% expansion levels. Now, at the very end of the cycle, we are seeing another massive BBWP Contractions. Why is this happening? Is it just noise, or is this contraction actually telling us the truth? Part 4: The Truth (6-Month Macro Chart) Why is the market moving so fast? And what is the "BBWP Signal" we mentioned Before? Look at the 6-Month Logarithmic Chart below. The Big Picture: Elliott Wave Supercycle on 6M Log Scale On the logarithmic chart, Bitcoin appears to be wrapping up a massive impulse wave that started from its early days: Wave (I): Peaked around 2013 (~$1,200 high). Wave (II): Bottomed in 2015 (~$200 low). Wave (III): Explosive rally to the 2021 all-time high (~$69,000). Wave (IV): The 2022 bear market low (~$15,500). Wave (V): Ongoing since late 2022, but here's the twist—it's unfolding as an ending diagonal (wedge pattern with overlapping subwaves: 1-2-3-4-5). 2.Applying Hosoda Time Theory (Ichimoku Time Theory indicate potential future market turning point). The vertical lines in the chart are not Fibonacci; they are Hosoda Numbers (9, 13, 17, 21...), 9: Marked the 2023 Bull Run start. 13: Exactly Marked the Jan 2025 Top as end of wave 3, which matches the irregular flat analysis on Weekly chart which states that Cycle top was on Jan 2025. 17 (±1): Matches our projection for the next major pivot—the end of wave IV and the start of the final Wave V run on Jul-2026 or Jan-2027. The "Mystery": The BBWP Anomaly BBWP is contracting sharply now on weekly chart—at what feels like the end of the cycle, not the start. This flips the script on historical behavior. Why? I tie it back to the higher-degree Elliott count: The ending diagonal's converging nature naturally squeezes volatility, compressing Bollinger Bands as momentum fades. Instead of signaling a fresh bull, this late-cycle contraction could be foreshadowing a reversal—think trend exhaustion rather than accumulation. A Possible Explanation: If the macro structure is indeed an Ending Diagonal, then this volatility crunch (BBWP contractions) and the market correcting nearly twice as fast as before makes perfect sense. We would be squeezing into the apex of a 15-year wedge. The market might be running out of "oxygen". The Verdict: With the 6-Month structure potentially squeezing into a corrective Wave IV, the weight of evidence suggests that the path of least resistance is down. Until the market touches the lower boundary of this diagonal (or invalidates the structure), the only logical macro view is bearish.
Short
by TradingProfile001
2
US 500 – Signs of Fatigue After a Strong Recovery?It’s been an edgy start to December for the US 500 index, a month which is historically one of the strongest. Part of the reason could be that the last 7 trading days of November saw a 5.3% rally from lows of 6508 (Nov 21st) to 6852 (Nov 28th) as markets reacted positively to more dovish commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers, which revived the possibility of a final Fed rate cut at their last meeting of the year on December 10th. Now Fed speakers are in the blackout period before that meeting where they are banned from publicly discussing current policy and it suddenly feels like a long time to wait to hear the outcome of their deliberations, especially with the US 500 sitting a mere 2% from its record highs of 6925 set on October 30th. Traders also must contend with a busy data schedule across this week, and it didn’t get off to the best start with yesterday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI survey showing activity falling further into contraction territory (below 50), with sagging order books and higher prices being paid. However, while manufacturing activity is important to the US economy, by far the biggest driver is services and the ISM Services PMI survey is due for release tomorrow at 1500 GMT. Last month’s reading sat comfortably in expansion territory (above 50) and US 500 traders will be looking to judge this new release against the previous month. Any disappointment could weigh on sentiment and vice versa. The available updates on the US labour market could also be important as they could impact the Fed rate decision next week. The ADP monthly private sector payrolls is released tomorrow at 1315 GMT, with the Challenger job cuts due Thursday at 1230 GMT and weekly jobless claims due at 1330 GMT. The shock weaker Challenger job cuts reading last month initiated some extra US 500 volatility and it will be interesting to see if this happens again. The technical backdrop is also potentially crucial going into such a critical period and the current assessment can be seen below. Technical Update: Signs of Fatigue After Strong Recovery? The US 500 index has staged an impressive recovery of more than 5.3% since the November 21st low, as recent price weakness once again found dip buyers. This pattern has been a consistent feature in US equities for some time. However, as the chart below highlights, the latest upside move in price has yet to achieve a close above the potential resistance defined by the October and November highs. This may be seen by some as the latest buying failing to breach a previous price peak, thereby disrupting the pattern of higher highs and higher lows. In other words, a possible sign of slowing upside price momentum. Of course, this does not necessarily signal the end of recent price strength. However, it may remain prudent to monitor both support and resistance levels closely, as doing so may help clarify whether the latest activity reflects a slowing of upside momentum that could lead to renewed weakness, or simply a pause in the advance before fresh price strength emerges. Potential Resistance Levels: As strong as the rally from the November 21st low appears, it currently remains capped below 6880, the November 12th session high. As the chart below highlights, this 6880 level represents the last recovery high and failure point, where selling pressure was sufficient to reverse the price advance back to the downside. Traders are therefore possibly viewing 6880 as the first potential resistance level to the current rally. While not a guarantee of continued upside, closing breaks above 6880 may be interpreted as a sign of price strength resuming. If this proves to be the case, closes above 6880 could pave the way for attempts to challenge 6925, the October 30th session high, with possibilities for further gains should that level also give way on a closing basis. Potential Support Levels: If resistance at 6680 continues to hold, traders may begin to suspect that upside price momentum is slowing, which in turn could see renewed selling pressure. At the same time, attention may shift to 6751 as the first support. This level is equal to the Bollinger mid‑average. While much will depend on future market sentiment and price trends, closing breaks below 6751 could open scope for further declines. Such moves, if seen, may lead to tests of 6722, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest advance, and potentially even extend toward 6681, the deeper 50% retracement. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/2/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25425.00 - PR Low: 25378.50 - NZ Spread: 104.0 Key scheduled economic events: 10:00 | JOLTs Job Openings Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Session Open ATR: 479.80 - Volume: 28K - Open Int: 299K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -3.7% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26636 - Mid: 25410 - Short: 23426 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025
by mv3trader5
XAUUSD | Gold Signal |Dec 2,2025BUY TREND TARGET FOR TODAY 📊 The market is pricing in a near-certain rate cut in December. Dovish comments from Fed officials from Waller to Williams, coupled with weak manufacturing data, reinforce the argument that growth risks are rising faster than inflation risks. Gold reacted sensitively to this backdrop, with the dollar falling to a two-week low before recovering slightly. I believe the gold-silver market is entering a period of high volatility, but the bullish structure remains intact. Rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and weak economic data continue to be the three main pillars supporting prices. However, rising bond yields and uncertainty over Fed leadership mean the rally could be interrupted in the short term. Powell’s speech this week will play a guiding role, especially on Q1 2026 interest rate expectations.1 Strategically, investors should keep a close eye on employment, PCE, and bond developments. In an environment where the monetary policy cycle is pivoting, gold plays the role of portfolio insurance, while silver continues to be the asset that responds most strongly to market sentiment and macro expectations, with higher returns but also greater risk.1% The main trend of gold remains bullish in structure. ♾️Gold BUY @ 4215- 4220 💰TP1 - 4225 💰TP1 - 4230 🚨Sl: 4210
FX:XAUUSD
by Richard1000pipsandmore
Golden Liquidity Sweep & FVG Reversal [XAU/USD]OANDA:XAUUSD Golden Liquidity Sweep & FVG Reversal Signal: BUY Entry: 4,203.560 TP1: 4,236.765 TP2: 4,259.639 TP3: 4,280.000 SL: 4,189.322 Insights: Price swept liquidity below 4,203.560 (red level) and tapped into the 0.618–0.705 Fibonacci zone, aligning with a Fair Value Gap (FVG) and high-volume node on VRVP. RSI is rebounding from midline (50), MACD histogram shows bullish momentum building, and price is above the 50-period MA. Market structure shows BOS to the upside, suggesting bullish continuation after liquidity grab. #FVGReversal #LiquiditySweep #GoldScalpingSetup#HighRR #SmartMoneyConcepts #BreakoutMomentum 🌟 Trade Like Hunter (for professional edge) ✅ High-Probability Setup: Confluence of FVG, BOS, VRVP support, RSI bounce, and MACD crossover 📊 Risk-Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:2.5 to TP2, 1:4 to TP3 🔑 Liquidity Zone Confirmation: Entry aligns with swept liquidity and imbalance zone 🧠 Market Psychology: Accumulation phase post-sweep, breakout momentum expected ⚡ Probability Score: 80% High Probability 📈 Scalability: Setup aligns across H1 and H4 timeframes for intraday and swing potential 🔒 Risk Disclaimer: Always use proper risk management. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LonaGoldHunter
How to Trade with Bollinger Bands in TradingViewBollinger Bands are a volatility indicator that helps traders identify market extremes, trend strength, and potential breakout setups by measuring how far price moves away from its average. What You’ll Learn: • Understanding Bollinger Bands as a volatility-based trading tool built around a moving average • How the middle band represents the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) • How the upper and lower bands are calculated as two standard deviations above and below that SMA • Why expanding bands signal rising volatility — and tightening bands signal market compression • Recognizing overbought and oversold conditions when price touches or moves beyond the upper or lower bands • Why these signals aren’t automatic buy or sell triggers, and how to confirm them with other tools like RSI or MACD • Identifying the “Bollinger Band squeeze,” a setup that often precedes major breakouts • Spotting potential mean-reversion trades when price closes back inside the bands after moving outside • How to add Bollinger Bands on TradingView via the Indicators menu • Understanding the default settings (20, 2) and how adjusting the period or deviation affects sensitivity • Practical examples using the E-mini S&P 500 futures chart • Applying Bollinger Bands across daily, weekly, and intraday timeframes for volatility analysis and signal confirmation This tutorial is designed for futures traders, swing traders, and technical analysts who want to integrate volatility dynamics into their trading approach. The methods discussed may help you identify breakout conditions, trend continuation signals, and potential reversal zones across multiple markets and timeframes. Learn more about futures trading with TradingView: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools — not forecasting instruments.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by Optimus Futures