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NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/14/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 24931.50 - PR Low: 24897.00 - NZ Spread: 77.0 Key scheduled economic events: 12:20 | Fed Chair Powell Speaks Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Session Open ATR: 370.72 - Volume: 45K - Open Int: 277K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -2.4% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Short
by mv3trader5
US 500 Index – Limited Correction Or Sentiment Reversal?With all the talk in the financial press last week of a potential AI bubble, soaring volatility in the precious metals market, and an on-going US government shutdown, perhaps it was understandable that traders were a little on edge going into Friday. So, when President Trump’s new threats of 100% tariffs on China were posted on social media late in the afternoon the reaction was a big downside correction, which saw the US 500 drop around 3.6% from its all-time highs of 6769 seen just a day earlier to a low of 6508. Since then, comments from President Trump and Vice President Vance over the weekend regarding China have seemed to be more conciliatory in tone, signalling an openness to get back to the negotiating table and hammer out a deal in some form. This has seen all markets breath a small sigh of relief and led the US 500 to open higher, currently trading up 2.2% around 6650 (0800 BST). However, whether this positivity continues may depend on multiple factors, including the technical outlook (more on this below). While trader sensitivity to the next round of comments from the US and Chinese administrations regarding the on-going trade tensions could remain high, they may also be keen to receive the latest Q3 earnings from the major US banks, with JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reporting on Tuesday (before the open), then Bank of America and Morgan Stanley reporting on Wednesday (before the open). While the focus may be on assessing actual performance against expectations, it could also be important to hear the outlook for future revenue, the direction of US economic growth and the size of bad debt provisions. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also speaks on Tuesday at 1720 BST and with the US government shutdown delaying the release of the most recent inflation updates (CPI/PPI) which were due this week until later in October, any comments he makes regarding the inflation outlook or the potential for an October Fed rate cut could take on extra significance. Technical Update: Limited Correction or Sentiment Reversal? Headline-driven price sell-offs like the one experienced on Friday (Oct 10th) are unpredictable, underscoring the importance of disciplined risk management. If you're long of an asset during such volatility, having well-placed stop-losses is crucial to limit downside exposure, especially when liquidity starts to reduce, as it likely did ahead of today’s US holiday. These events serve as a reminder that protecting your trading capital is just as important as delivering profitable outcomes. After such a sharp sell-off, the question is whether it marks a brief, exaggerated correction within a broader uptrend or signals a deeper negative sentiment shift that could lead to further price weakness. The answer may well depend on how the price of the US 500 reacts in the upcoming sessions. Whether support levels hold, momentum stabilises, and buyers return or whether the price decline deepens and the next support levels give way. The jury may still be out on this, but as the chart above shows, judging the potential key support and resistance levels could help gauge the next directional risks. A closing break of either side may offer signals to the next phase of price activity. If the Sell-Off Reflects a Negative Sentiment Shift: Friday’s sharp decline may have already breached some initial support levels, raising the risk of a more extended phase of price weakness. The daily Bollinger mid-average (currently 6668) is typically viewed by traders as a support level in an uptrend and this level was broken on a closing basis within Friday’s decline. Despite this morning’s rally, 6668 could now act as a resistance, and if it remains intact, could keep upside activity in check for now. While 6668 resistance holds on a closing basis, this morning’s recovery may be viewed by some as a reactionary bounce following Friday’s sharp decline, leaving possibilities of renewed selling pressure later in the week. If this proves to be the case, closing breaks below potential support at 6550, a level which is equal to half the rebound from Friday’s low, might lead to renewed downside pressure. This may open tests of 6490, the 50% retracement of the August 1st to October 9th rally, with a closing break below this level, suggesting scope for moves toward 6224 which is the 61.8% retracement. If the Sell-Off Proves to be a Limited Correction: While Friday’s decline was sharper and larger than any since the June 2025 lows, traders may now be watching whether current price strength can close back above the 6668 Bollinger mid-average. While not a guarantee of renewed price strength, past declines since June 23rd 2025, have seen US 500 prices recover to close back above this line, leading to resumed attempts at upside strength. A closing break back above 6668 may once again open attempts to push to higher levels. If confirmed, a break above resistance at 6668 may lead to further upside back toward 6769, which is the October 9th all-time high. Should this level give way, further strength may extend toward 6866, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci extension of last week’s sharp decline. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
HOW-TO: Forecast Next-Bar Odds with Markov ProbCast🎯 Goal In 5 minutes, you’ll add Markov ProbCast to a chart, calibrate the “big-move” threshold θ for your instrument/timeframe, and learn how to read the next-bar probabilities and regime signals (🟩 Calm | 🟧 Neutral | 🟥 Volatile). 🧩 Add & basic setup Open any chart and timeframe you trade. Add Markov ProbCast — P(next-bar) Forecast Panel from the Public Library (search “Markov ProbCast”). Inputs (recommended starting point): • Returns: Log • Include Volume (z-score): On (Lookback = 60) • Include Range (HL/PrevClose): On • Rolling window N (transitions): 90 • θ as percent: start at 0.5% (we’ll calibrate next) • Freeze forecast at last close: On (stable readings) • Display: leave plots/partition/samples On 📏 Calibrate θ (2-minute method) Pick θ so the “>+θ” bucket truly flags meaningful bars for your market & timeframe. Try: • If intraday majors / large caps: θ ≈ 0.2%–0.6% on 1–5m; 0.3%–0.8% on 15–60m. • If high-vol crypto / small caps: θ ≈ 0.5%–1.5% on 1–5m; 0.8%–2.0% on 15–60m. Then watch the Partition row for a day: if the “>+θ” bucket is almost never triggered, lower θ a bit; if it’s firing constantly, raise θ. Aim so “>+θ” captures move sizes you actually care about. 📖 Read the panel (what the numbers mean) • P(next r > 0) : Directional tilt for the very next candle. • P(next r > +θ) : Odds of a “big” upside move beyond your θ. • P(next r < −θ) : Odds of a “big” downside move. • Partition (>+θ | 0..+θ | −θ..0 | <−θ): Four buckets that ≈ sum to 100%. • Next Regime Probs : Chance the market flips to 🟩 Calm / 🟧 Neutral / 🟥 Volatile next bar. • Samples : How many historical next-bar examples fed each next-state estimate (confidence cue). Note: Heavy calculations update on confirmed bars; with “Freeze” on, values won’t flicker intrabar. 📚 Two practical playbooks Breakout prep • Watch P(next r > +θ) trending up and staying elevated (e.g., > 25–35%). • A rising Next Regime: Volatile probability supports expansion context. • Combine with your trigger (structure break, session open, liquidity sweep). Mean-reversion defense • If already long and P(next r < −θ) lifts while Volatile odds rise, consider trimming size, widening stops, or waiting for a better setup. • Mirror the logic for shorts when P(next r > +θ) lifts. ⚙️ Tuning & tips • N=90 balances adaptivity and stability. For very fast regimes, try 60; for slower instruments, 120. • Keep Freeze at close on for cleaner alerts/decisions. • If Samples are small and values look jumpy, give it time (more bars) or increase N slightly. 🧠 Why this works (the math, briefly) We learn a 3-state regime and its transition matrix A (A = P(Sₜ₊₁=j | Sₜ=i)), estimate next-bar event odds conditioned on the next state (e.g., q_gt(j)=P(rₜ₊₁>+θ | Sₜ₊₁=j)), then forecast by mixing: P(event) = Σⱼ A · q(event | next=j). Laplace/Beta smoothing, per-state sample gating, and unconditional fallbacks keep estimates robust. ❓FAQ • Why do probabilities change across instruments/timeframes? Different volatility structure → different transitions and conditional odds. • Why do I sometimes see “…” or NA? Not enough recent samples for a next-state; the tool falls back until data accumulate. • Can I use it standalone? It’s a context/forecast panel—pair it with your entry/exit rules and risk management. 📣 Want more? If you’d like an edition with alerts , σ-based θ, quantile regime cutoffs, and a compact ribbon—or a full strategy that uses these probabilities for entries, filters, and sizing—please Like this post and comment “Pro” or “Strategy”. Your feedback decides what we release next.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by Algorific
October 13 - October 17 2025I decided to go through and consolidate my charts this week to make for easier decision making. Friday’s sell off was a sign of weakness in a market that was already showing strain. While the drop on resumed trade war threats was swift, the rest of the market had a muted response. Heading into this week, we should see another big move and I will try to be open to trading either side depending on how this develops. 1. Macro Gold is still in its uptrend and that is unlikely to change anytime soon. I don’t have it charted here, but Gold’s volatility index CBOE:GVZ spiked during Friday’s session, however buyers seemed to be absorbing the volatility since it still closed up over 1%. Gold has already made a new ATH today and I do not expect to see the trend change this week. The dollar TVC:DXY seems to be near the top of its deviation from the flat EMA. I think we will see the dollar move lower which could boost Gold, Stocks, or both. Next, we saw TVC:US03MY remain relatively flat during Friday’s sell off while TVC:US10Y moved sharply lower during the session, making the TVC:US10Y -US03MY spread very tight once again. Since real yields are still edging up and the 3M bond stayed flat during the panic, that leads me to believe the bond market volatility was contained and may not be indicative of a true risk-off reaction. One reason why US Treasuries will continue to catch a bid is that as forward inflation expectations continue to slide (bottom left chart), the real return is still attractive compared to bonds from other major countries. We’ll see if the renewed trade sparring will change the forward inflation exceptions trend since the data from TIPS is delayed, however for now I’ll continue to base my perception on what I’m currently seeing on the chart. Lastly, Oil is continuing to see an average decline. Hopefully middle eastern peace efforts are successful, which could keep the price subdued. On the bottom chart I have combined the average of MCX:COPPER1! and Corn CBOT:ZC1! into a single line compared to TVC:DXY , which aims to show real demand (and/or inflation) pressure against the Dollar’s relative strength. Here we can see commodities took a hit on Friday but the trend is still very strong to the upside. Since forward inflation expectations are down and the dollar is flat, this may be pointing to the presence of real demand, which should be bullish for equities. 2. Risk Even when looking at the past six months on a line chart, the pullback, Friday’s drop was significant. As I mentioned last week, there are important risk-health items to watch for here. I’m now just charting the High Yield OAS - Investment Grade OAS spread, which was already starting to move up before Friday’s sell off. This data is only reported once per day for the previous session, so the impact on corporate bond yields is not yet known. This will be very important to pay attention to, as it could signal true aversion to risk. Next, the $ES1!/GOLD spread is declining and should continue until Gold enters a re-accumulation phase. Anyone’s guess when that will be so for now I think it’s safe to assume that Stocks will continue to underperform Gold, and if Friday’s drop was any indication of which side is in control, it serves as confirmation that stocks are sensitive to bad news. Buyers seem to be the ones getting absorbed. The third chart on the top shows that although CME_MINI:NQ1! has been outperforming CBOT_MINI:YM1! since the market bottomed, the momentum seems to be stalling out. I’ll be looking at the sectors to find any further signs of sustained rotation. 3. Sector Analysis My notes are best explained in the screenshot but my comment is that most of the decline on Friday came from AMEX:XLK (Tech sector) selling off. Other sectors performed better against SPX, with AMEX:XLP (Consumer Staples) seemingly breaking out of a decline, however as you can see from the chart on the right, it has still been the worst performer against the other indices over the past three months. One session is not enough to change the trend, however it will be important to watch for continued rotation out of tech and into other sectors. This could cause CME_MINI:NQ1! to decline against CBOT_MINI:YM1! as I suggested earlier, and would signal the market is positioning for a more sustained downturn - likely caused by disappointing growth. 4. Bias This is the chart I have tried to condense the most. I have switched to just using Line Break as my main chart for ES, which I found performed better than Renko when combined with my other indicators. On the lefthand side, I am using Session CVD but got rid of my other indicators and made a CVD Momentum indicator, which tracks the momentum of CVD rising or falling over an anchor period (1 week). I’m still using a range chart calculation for this chart, currently set to 20R. On the right, I am using what I’ll call my Volatility Dashboard, however it does not start producing a useful signal until premarket. Based on Volatility, it can be said with certainty that dealers went long on puts right before the sell-off began. From a technical standpoint, the price was in a rising wedge and dumped after it made a higher high that did not reach the upper trend line. Rising channels are generally bullish, however the extent of Friday’s free fall could mean that even if the price quickly recovers, it may be forming a top similar to what we saw last December. This is why risk indicators like corporate bond spreads, sector performance, and changes to the macro structure will be important to monitor over the coming days. — Conclusion For this week, all I can say with certainty is that I think there will be some good opportunities. Here is what I believe can be safely assessed from this analysis: 1. Stocks remain under pressure, however “smart money” will require more time to rotate out of tech, leading to repeated retests of the top of the range. 2. Tailwinds for stocks are potential real demand in agriculture and industrial material that is not impacting the market’s forward inflation expectation. 3. “Smart Money” will sell volatility (puts) into pullbacks if the price is set to be driven higher, or will do the opposite, buying volatility (puts) and selling calls on low volume rips This is why I will be looking for more confirmation before taking a side, as the market’s goal now is to clear out liquidity. When it comes to the larger trend, I tend to think that stocks do not seem to be showing strength over the larger macro structure, however that does not necessarily dictate that the index will come down another 8%. Instead, I think at the very least we will stay in a flat range for the time being. I do not think the market is ready to go on a bull run, nor do I think the environment is showing a risk-off bias that is strong enough to warrant stocks going straight down. If we meet resistance near the top of the range, I’ll look at volatility positioning and CVD for the signal to go short. Conversely, if we make a higher low I will go long on calls to the top of the range. Good luck to all and thanks for reading!
SP:SPX
by ap769
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/13/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 24752.25 - PR Low: 24541.75 - NZ Spread: 470.25 No key scheduled economic events +0.4% weekend gap up retracing 50% of Friday's 892 point range Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Session Open ATR: 370.30 - Volume: 75K - Open Int: 284K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -2.3% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025
by mv3trader5
BTCUSDT BULLISH -Was shocked when the market crashed; but its a good thing for me because the market completed a move that i thought that it would take a week or weeks. -After the crash i looked for a neqw zone that i can enter as i saw that i missed the opportunity to enter when it touched the zone that i need. -Im looking for a long position as ive seen a confirmation & im waiting for the push. -Im looking for the market to go back to the entry zone & then push up. -Lets see how this goes.
Long
by TheeAnomaliKhai
#BITCOIN ANALYSIS I have been warning you for the last 45 days #BITCOIN ANALYSIS I have been warning you for the last 45 days that a big dump was coming and now it’s playing out exactly. Bitcoin has already dumped around $20K and is now trading near 112K, right at the major resistance zone that has triggered every big correction since 2018. A small bounce to 115K–116K is possible, but after that I expect another leg down toward 100K, and potentially lower to 90K. I’m still holding my 50% short position. If anything changes or I close my position, I’ll update you. Remember I mentioned earlier that if BTC went back to 125K–128K, I would add more shorts and that plan hasn’t changed. Till Monday, I expect some volatility, but Monday’s price action will give a clearer direction. 🔸 Weekly: BTC touched the long-term trendline again → clear rejection happened. 👉 Until we get a weekly close above 125K, the risk of a major pullback stays high. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 🔸 Daily: Price is inside the 110K–125K supply zone. Structure is weak. If price breaks and resists below 110K, then 100K is the next target. 📊 My Trade: ✅ First target 105K hit Holding 50% shorts, expecting a bounce to 115K, then lower. 📌 Downside Targets: 105K ✅ → 100K → 95K → 90K
Short
by CryptoSkullSignal
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/10/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25321.50 - PR Low: 25286.50 - NZ Spread: 78.5 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Nonfarm Payrolls - Average Hourly Earnings - Unemployment Rate Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM) - Session Open ATR: 264.53 - Volume: 19K - Open Int: 287K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -0.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Long
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/9/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25369.50 - PR Low: 25340.50 - NZ Spread: 65.0 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims - Fed Chair Powell Speaks 13:00 | 30-Year Bond Auction Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM) - Session Open ATR: 269.14 - Volume: 26K - Open Int: 291K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -0.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Short
by mv3trader5
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/8/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25083.25 - PR Low: 25054.50 - NZ Spread: 64.25 Key scheduled economic events: 13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction 15:00 | FOMC Meeting Minutes Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM) - Session Open ATR: 263.72 - Volume: 21K - Open Int: 287K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -0.9% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 26020 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Short
by mv3trader5
USDJPY — Bulls in Full Control: Is 152 Next?Bias: Bullish Timeframe: 4H 1. Technical Overview USDJPY continues its impressive upward momentum, breaking through several key resistance zones as the pair approaches the 151.00–152.00 psychological level — an area that historically triggered major reversals. We’re currently witnessing a strong bullish structure supported by the 50 and 100 MA, both trending upward and providing dynamic support. The breakout above 150.00 marked a clear shift in market sentiment, confirming the dominance of buyers. The next key resistance is located at 151.90–152.20, which was the peak of the last major rally before the Bank of Japan intervened earlier this year. A daily close above this level would open the door to 153.50–154.00, potentially signaling the start of a new medium-term uptrend. ___________________ 2. Price Action Analysis Support zone: 149.50–150.00 — previous resistance now acting as a pivot area. Resistance zone: 151.90–152.20 — last major high and potential barrier before new highs. Market structure: Clear sequence of Higher Highs and Higher Lows. Momentum: Bullish volume expansion, confirming strong participation by institutional buyers. Price is currently consolidating below the resistance area, forming a potential bullish flag pattern on the 4H chart. A breakout from this mini-structure would confirm continuation to the upside. ___________________ 3. Fundamental Context From a macro perspective, the divergence between Fed and BoJ policies continues to drive this pair upward. The Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive stance as inflation data remains above target, keeping the USD supported. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, sticks to ultra-loose policy and continues yield-curve control, suppressing JPY strength. Additionally, rising U.S. Treasury yields provide further tailwinds to USDJPY, while Japan’s inflation and wage growth data haven’t shown the strength needed to justify policy tightening. Unless we see verbal intervention from BoJ officials or a sudden USD correction, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. ___________________ 4. Trading Plan (For Reference Only) Long entry: 150.80 – 151.00 (on retest or small pullback) Target 1: 151.90 Target 2: 153.50 Stop loss: Below 150.00 Risk-reward ratio: 1:2.5 ___________________ 5. Summary USDJPY remains fundamentally and technically bullish. The market shows no immediate signs of exhaustion, and all eyes are now on whether bulls can sustain momentum above the 152.00 threshold — a breakout that could accelerate the rally further. As always, watch for BoJ rhetoric near these levels — it’s the only real wildcard that can disrupt the current trend. ___________________ Trade safe, plan your entries, and never fight the trend. — Simon Weber | ICEBERG FOREX SIGNALS
Long
by Simon_Weber
Ethereum Price Prediction: Samsung Staking and BitMine Treasury In October 2025, Ethereum (ETH) is poised for significant growth, driven by major catalysts like Samsung’s integration of ETH staking in Galaxy devices and BitMine Immersion’s massive treasury holdings. With ETH trading at $4,500 after a 23% rally, these developments signal strong demand, potentially pushing prices to $10,000 by year-end. Samsung’s partnership enables staking for over 200 million users, while BitMine’s 2.83 million ETH ($13.4 billion) underscores institutional confidence. This analysis explores these drivers, price predictions, and trading strategies for investors. Data as of October 7, 2025—position for ETH’s next surge. Samsung Staking: Empowering 200M+ Users Samsung’s integration with a major crypto platform allows Galaxy device owners in the US to stake ETH directly via a mobile wallet, offering zero trading fees and 5–7% APY. Targeting 200 million+ users, this feature simplifies staking, boosting retail adoption. Early data shows 75 million users gaining crypto access, with projected Q4 staking inflows of $500 million. This democratizes ETH participation, enhancing network security as the staking queue grows to 475,000 validators. The surge in retail staking could lift ETH prices by 10–15%, correlating 0.7 with Galaxy device sales. BitMine Treasury: $13.4B ETH Holdings BitMine Immersion Technologies holds 2.83 million ETH ($13.4 billion), the second-largest crypto treasury, with a recent $821 million purchase. Controlling 5% of ETH’s supply, BitMine’s strategy leverages immersion cooling for efficient mining and staking, signaling strong belief in Ethereum’s upgrades like Pectra. This reduces liquid supply, amplifying price sensitivity. Corporate treasuries, alongside $75.2 million net ETF inflows in September, support ETH’s price floor during corrections, with on-chain data showing a 15% increase in whale holdings. Price Prediction for 2025: $4,685–$10,000 Analysts project ETH ranging from $4,685–$4,900 by mid-October, with bullish targets up to $10,000 on staking and treasury demand. Samsung’s 200M user base and BitMine’s holdings could drive a cup-and-handle breakout to $7,500. Futures open interest hit $61 billion, signaling momentum. Risks include regulatory delays or unstaking pressure (475,000 validators), potentially capping gains at $5,000. A 40% upside to $7,500 by Q4 is likely if adoption persists, with a 0.8 correlation to Nasdaq. Trading Signals: RSI and MACD Analysis uses RSI for momentum and MACD for trends, based on April 2025 uptrends: ETH ($4,500): RSI at 58 (bullish above 55). Bullish MACD crossover (+0.15)—target $5,200 (15% upside). Fibonacci support at $4,200, resistance at $4,760. On-chain: Staking inflows +$500M. LDO (staking proxy, $2.20): RSI at 60. Bullish MACD (+0.12)—target $2.50 (20% upside). Fibonacci support at $2.10, resistance at $2.40. Overall: RSI 58–60 signals momentum—long at supports for 15–25% Q4 gains. Risks: Unstaking (5–7% dip); hedge with BTC. How to Profit from ETH Demand Capitalize on ETH’s catalysts: Track Signals: Monitor RSI >60 and MACD crossovers for entries (e.g., ETH at $4,200), targeting 10–15% yields. On-Chain Analysis: Follow staking inflows and treasury holdings via explorers for rally signals. Portfolio Strategy: Allocate 20–30% to ETH, hedge with USDC at RSI >70 for 20% Q4 returns. Education: Study staking mechanics and practice trades via demo platforms. Conclusion: Ride ETH’s Surge Samsung’s staking and BitMine’s $13.4B treasury fuel ETH’s rally, with $10,000 in sight for 2025. Track signals for breakout gains. What’s your ETH price target? Comment below! #EthereumPrice #Staking #CryptoTreasury #MarketTrends #CryptoInvesting
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by HCN-News12
Microsoft May Be Moving AgainMicrosoft has been snoozing since the summer, but some traders may think the tech giant is ready to start moving again. The first pattern on today’s chart is the pair of bullish gaps following quarterly results, which may reflect positive sentiment. Second is the August 15 weekly close of $520.17. MSFT slipped under that line in the second half of August and spent all of September below it. Prices crossed the resistance yesterday. That could suggest a breakout has begun. Third, Bollinger Band Width fell to its narrowest level since April 2024. Are prices set to expand following such compression? Next, the stock has clawed back above its 50-day simple moving average. The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is also above the 21-day EMA and MACD is rising. Those signals may be consistent with bullish direction. Finally, MSFT is an active underlier in the options market. (Its average daily volume of 296,000 contracts ranks 16th in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options. Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com . TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by TradeStation
Stop Guessing Risk — Start Measuring It Like a QuantStop deciding risk based on emotion or setup. Do what quants do. Measure volatility and let it define your risk. Most traders size positions emotionally: • "This setup looks strong, I’ll double size." • "I’m not sure, so I’ll go small." → Both are inconsistent and lead to unstable performance. Professionals and systematic traders use a simple principle: Risk is not a feeling, it’s a function of volatility. ⚙️ The concept Markets breathe in volatility cycles. When volatility expands, risk should contract. When volatility contracts, risk can expand. Your position size should adapt automatically to those cycles. This Idea demonstrates the logic behind the new 📊 Risk Recommender — (Heatmap) indicator, a tool that quantifies how much of your equity to risk at any time. 🧮 How it works The indicator offers two complementary modes: 1️⃣ Per-Trade (ATR-based) • Compares current volatility (ATR) to a long-term baseline. • When market noise increases, it suggests smaller risk per trade. • When conditions are quiet, it recommends scaling up—within your own floor and ceiling limits. 2️⃣ Annualized (Volatility Targeting) • Computes realized and forecast volatility (EWMA-style). • Adjusts your base risk so your overall exposure stays near a target annualized volatility (e.g., 20%). • The same math used in institutional risk models and CTA frameworks. 🎨 Visual interpretation The heatmap column acts as a “risk thermometer”: • 🟥 Red = High volatility → scale down • 🟩 Green = Low volatility → scale up • Smoothed and bounded between your chosen floor and ceiling risk levels. • The label shows current mode, recommended risk %, and volatility context. 💡 Why this matters Risk should *never* depend on how confident you feel about a trade. It should depend on how loud or quiet the market is. Volatility is the market’s volume knob and this indicator helps you tune your exposure to the same frequency. 📈 Example use case • NASDAQ volatility spikes → recommended risk drops from 3.0% → 1.2% • SPX volatility compresses → risk rises gradually → 4.5% You stay consistent while others overreact. 🚀 Automating it My invite-only strategy applies this logic automatically to manage exposure in real time. Combine it with the Risk Recommender indicator for full transparency and adaptive position sizing. 🎯 Summary ✅ Stop guessing risk size. ✅ Let volatility guide you. ✅ Keep risk constant, results consistent. That’s how quants survive. That’s how traders evolve. #RiskManagement #Volatility #ATR #PositionSizing #Quant #TradingStrategy #AlgorithmicTrading #SystematicTrading #Portfolio #EWMA #RiskControl
VANTAGE:NAS100Education
by Algorific
BTCUSD – Benefitting from Being AlternativeBTCUSD broke above 120000 for the first time since mid-August on Sunday, briefly recorded a new all-time high of 126304 yesterday before edging back lower and consolidating its gains so far this morning (124100, 0730 BST). This move to new highs has been relatively constant by recent BTCUSD standards. Prices were languishing at 3-month lows around 10800 on September 26th, but since then it has recorded 10 out of 12 up days, led higher by increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts at their next meetings in October and December, alongside a shift by investors into alternative assets to diversify away from major currencies like the US Dollar (USD), UK Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY) and Euro (EUR) as concerns increase about the sustainability of government debt burdens, fuelled by the spending requirements of those in power. These issues have been highlighted recently by the US government shutdown, choice of pro spending candidate Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s new prime minister, on-going issues surrounding UK Chancellor Reeves Autumn budget plans and the resignation yesterday of new French Prime Minister Lecornu after only 27 days in office as the country struggles to get its finances in order. Looking forward, whether BTCUSD prices can sustain a move to higher record levels or instead see a correction back to the downside may be determined by factors such as risk sentiment remaining positive, alongside the ability of the technical outlook to remain constructive, 2 factors that can change quickly in the current environment. Technical Update: New All Time Highs Between the September 26th low and the October 6th high, Bitcoin rallied 16.27% in a near-uninterrupted stretch of price strength, culminating in a new all-time high of 126304 on Monday. As the chart above shows, despite a correction from the latest 126304 high, fresh attempts to extend the advance could remain on the cards. Momentum still appears tilted toward further attempts to move higher. However, breaks into new all-time high territory don’t guarantee a sustained advance. It’s therefore prudent to monitor key support and resistance levels to help gauge where the next directional risks may emerge. These levels can offer clues on whether momentum is likely to continue or fade. Possible Resistance Levels: Sellers have emerged at the 126304 level, and this area now looks set to act as the initial resistance. Traders will likely monitor how price behaves around 126304, particularly on a closing basis, if retested this week. When price breaks into new all-time high territory, identifying valid resistance becomes challenging. However, Fibonacci extension levels can offer useful reference points. If Bitcoin sees a closing break above 126304, attention may shift toward 131090, the 38.2% extension of the September 26th to October 2nd rally, even potentially 135145, the higher 61.8% level. Possible Support Levels: As already noted, Bitcoin has seen an almost uninterrupted phase of strength since the September 26th low, which may now prompt concerns about price over-extension. Some traders may begin to assess the risk of corrective pullbacks from these elevated levels. However, for corrective themes to gain traction, it may require a closing break below the recent 121525 low (October 4th), which marked the last rally point for price. While breaks below this support are not an outright negative move, such activity could open the way for tests of 119557, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest advance, possibly 117471, the deeper 50% level. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSD
by Pepperstone
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/7/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25197.00 - PR Low: 25135.25 - NZ Spread: 138.25 No key scheduled economic events Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM) - Session Open ATR: 263.48 - Volume: 20K - Open Int: 288K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -0.4% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 25204 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025
by mv3trader5
October 6 - October 10 2025For this week, my bias is neutral/leaning bearish, however I will not fight the trend if my technical indicators give clear bullish signals. I believe the government will stay shut down for a while, as both parties are at an impasse and the administration will use the shutdown as an opportunity to advance its agenda against the federal workforce and non-aligned spending programs, rather than make concessions early on. Unless the opposition is willing to abandon its position with little to no gain, the possibility of this ending soon remains low in my view. Official economic data is currently on hold, so for the time being the stock market is operating with little fundamental basis and as a result, technicals could carry more weight. 1. Macro Data from the Federal Reserve is currently delayed or on an indefinite hold, making the Real Yield of bonds ambiguous. Regardless, not much has changed since last week. The Dollar is starting out slightly above average but still flat - which should continue since there will be no policy changes or inflation data during the shutdown. Yields have remained relatively flat but the 10Y yield is rising at a faster pace than the 3M yield, which can be seen on the bottom left chart that shows the spread. I’m not reading into the technicals too much here, however it will be important to see if this makes a higher high (spread widening, 10Y rising and/or 3M falling) or a lower low (spread tightening/inverting). Neither would be a particularly good sign but the former would likely be better received than the latter when it comes to stocks. As with the dollar, I think yields will remain relatively flat for the same reasons, which will prevent bond-market moves from being a driver. My sentiment on commodities is roughly the same. Gold continues to rally, Oil may be in a downtrend, Copper ripped higher, and Corn stayed flat. Aside from Gold, I do not see anything on the charts of these commodities to provide a clear indication of a change in the growth or inflation outlook. 2. FX Nothing new and worthy of note here. Yield spreads in the US and Britain (Black, Red) remain tight compared to elsewhere, but the higher yield may be a tailwind keeping the dollar steady. Over the past three months, the dollar has performed sightly better proportionately compared to other currencies, however it is still down significantly on the Year. 3. Risk The top left chart is the option-adjusted spread of High Yield and Investment Grade corporate bonds indexed to 100. I’m not seeing an upside movement developing here yet (risk-off signal). On the middle chart, S&P Futures continue to significantly underperform Gold, fueled by the Gold rally and S&P making incremental gains. On the top right, I am starting to track the $NQ1!/YM1! spread to see how the mega caps are performing against companies in more traditional industries. Here it is clear that ever since the market bottomed in April, Nasdaq has been significantly outperforming the Dow Jones, however it appears this spread is set to tighten - either by Dow rising while Nasdaq stays flat/falls or Nasdaq falling proportionately more than Dow. Notice how the Nasdaq/Dow curve started to flatten around the same time that Gold started to significantly outperform the S&P. I think this is an indicator that growth stocks will see pressure in the near future, and that we may currently be seeing rotation into safer sectors . This is evident in the outperformance of Industrials, Financials, Healthcare, and Utilities compared to growth sectors like Tech last week. 4. Options Chain Gamma flip-flopped last week, making options data a misleading indicator unless you’re really in the know. With little fundamental backing, I expect dealers will assert more control than what is typical. Friday ended with most of the calls on volume getting taken out while paying some puts. Heading into this week, gamma on AMEX:SPY should keep the price from rising above $672 or falling below $665 on Monday . 5. Bias I’m going to split these screenshots up to make it easier to see what I’m looking at. On my technical indicator chart, last week’s Weekly CVD (black) did not see a strong directional movement, although it remained below the zero line for most of the week, suggesting order flow favored the sell side despite the price reaching new ATHs. Anchored OBV also suggests that last week was a battle between both sides. Line break is great as a momentum indicator and has been flipping between both sides since October 1st. CME_MINI:ES1! will need to make a new ATH and break above the resistance and close on the 1h timeframe to print a bullish bar, so right now I think the momentum is more to the downside. On Renko, which is my main chart, taking a purely technical read using the Wyckoff Method, I think this structure is bullish overall unless we see a swift move to the bottom of the range. Otherwise, it is fairly likely that we will at least see a pull back into the range. VWAP is set to Monthly to show we’re still above but could see a trend shift in the monthly frame of reference by breaking below it. How the price respects this range will be important to watch. Lastly, when looking at the 4h chart on VIX, it appears to be coiling although it has remained mostly flat. VIX is outperforming its on volatility and the volatility of bonds, suggesting that any spikes are not part of larger risk-off positioning yet. —————— My overall interpretation for this week is that although the Macro side remains roughly unchanged, I still retain my bias that the market is positioning for disappointing growth and clearly continues to show a preference for gold over stocks (heavy hedging). The absence of data reports due to the shutdown that could have validated these concerns (notably payrolls) have allowed dealers to assert more control over the price. For this reason, I will keep a close eye out for any changes and will adjust if the technicals on my Bias chart support a bullish position, but for now my near-term short target is to move back down to $666 .
AMEX:SPY
by ap769
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/6/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2025 - PR High: 25058.50 - PR Low: 24995.00 - NZ Spread: 142.0 Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Session Open ATR: 267.04 - Volume: 21K - Open Int: 280K - Trend Grade: Long - From BA ATH: -0.3% (Rounded) No key scheduled economic events Open weekend gap up: +0.07% Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 25204 - Mid: 23571 - Short: 21939 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQZ2025Long
by mv3trader5