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With the Federal Reserve’s rate decision in focus, I wanted to revise a previous idea that called for 6% on the 10 year T-bill, and provide a clearer read on what I’m seeing as the larger trend, which could provide important clues for the future of everything from monetary policy, to mortgage rates, and stocks. Starting with the 500R chart, I think we are...

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In my previous idea, I explained why I think the price could rise to the $580s and just wanted to provide a brief update on what I’m watching for this week. The market has felt lethargic recently despite rising roughly 8.25% over the last five sessions. The days of fretting over incremental movements feels like a distant memory. Fortunately, major data releases...

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The market has been in the doldrums since finding support after a nasty wave of selling that caused AMEX:SPY to decline by an additional 15% in a matter of days. Since we’ve been chopping around in this $65 range, we have seen some sharp swings both ways, but little sense of direction. i think that is about to change soon. Using the time around the Death Cross...

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House of Cards - $585 before the crash I'm unable to update my previous idea that I originally posted in February when AMEX:SPY was at the top. Going to make this brief and will add screenshots and additional notes once the structure of Wave (B) is confirmed or invalidated. On the 500R chart ($5), the price has risen in a distinct 3-wave pattern labelled...

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AMEX:SPY is at a pivotal point and could potentially be at the top of the bullish cycle that began in October 2022. If this prediction proves accurate, I think we could see a maximum low of $510 for this year. There are a couple of caveats, including one that will be a clear indicator of whether or not this wave count is accurate, which I will explain later....

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It’s been a while since I’ve posted an Idea, however since the market may be at a pivotal point I thought I’d do a quick analysis on the $US10Y. Using elliott wave and fibonacci ratios as my base logic, I predict that we could see a 6.5% or higher 10 year T-bill in the near future. The fib extension above is based off 1.00 of Primary waves 0-3. I’m counting...

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Hi everyone - I wanted to make a quick post with my thoughts on the next moves for AMEX:SPY using Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci Price/Time levels. I’m on my phone so I apologize if the chart screenshot looks cluttered. AMEX:SPY is currently in a Primary W5 that should conclude in August. Yesterday we saw a spike after CPI came in cooler than expected,...

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Hello everyone - I do not trade or speculate on oil, although I do look at the price from time to time. With oil being a commodity that has moved sideways for the past 25 years, it may seem pointless to try to apply wave theory towards it. After charting the cycle, I noticed that the waves have unfolded in patterns that can be defined by the wave theory while...

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Well, not exactly. Things are not looking good for Bitcoin in the near-term, but there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic. I do not trade CRYPTOCAP:BTC but like to keep up with its price and test my strategies with it. I’m making this post to see how accurate my predictions are in a few months, and will use it to influence future trading plans. Since I...

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Not going to go into this too deeply but as you can see, we made a higher high on Friday and are currently hitting resistance at the upper extremity of the zig zag channel. Price has also been consolidating in a riding wedge pattern, which could mean we could soon see a move to the downside. It also appears that the inverse is happening with TVC:DXY where the...

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My plan is to buy NYSE:MCD puts on Monday before earnings. This idea is based purely on technical analysis, which I think sufficiently supports the theory that the price will go lower in the short term. However, in the broader scope, this drop could produce a great buying opportunity for those looking to go long. The weekly chart shows last week’s solid green...

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IWM is currently in a strong accumulation area based on the volume profile delta. The indexes were a bit oversold after yesterday's CPI report and FOMC minutes, leading to a bounce in the afternoon. I am skeptical as to whether today's PPI report and fed speakers will have the same effect so I closed my puts. Here is my reasoning: VIX keeps rejecting above...

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NASDAQ:AMD is currently forming a H&S pattern on the weekly chart. I think the price will continue to chop in the right shoulder range until earnings, at which point the price will begin its decent to the lower extremity of the weekly Zig Zag Channel ($140 range). In the meantime, I am watching the Value Area H&L levels shown on the Anchored Volume Delta...

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From my previous post on CVNA, you can see that I have an overall bearish outlook on the stock due to a dubious earnings report last week and a share offering that could add 35m shares to the float. I have been watching the 2hr chart closely, which shows that we could be in for a large drop soon followed by a downtrend. This is best illustrated by looking at...

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Shorted CVNA when it broke support at $50 after a huge leg up on Wednesday. Looking ahead to Friday, VWMA and MACD on 15m chart could flip positive during early trading - pushing price up along the edge of the cloud - before hitting heavy resistance around $48.30. If the price follows the dotted arrow pattern, it may drop significantly before close or after hours....

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RSI looking strong on the 4hr chart. Setting up for possible breakout. Open order for July 21st calls.