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Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Inventory Pressure and 59.7 Key levelBackdrop: The Crude Oil Narrative The tone in crude oil has been largely defined by a tug-of-war between demand uncertainty and controlled supply. OPEC has maintained its view that global oil demand should continue growing into 2026, but at a modest pace. Despite this, the group has acknowledged noticeable inventory builds worldwide over recent months. That dynamic alone has kept sentiment cautious and has acted as a headwind for sustained rallies. OPEC+ has also chosen to hold off on further production increases into early 2026. Instead of expanding output, the group is now focusing on capacity assessments and quota alignment among members. This shift signals discipline on the supply side, but also suggests that the group is aware of potential oversupply risk if demand fails to firm up. Markets have been responding to this mixed backdrop. On one side, controlled supply helps prevent severe breakdowns. On the other, rising inventories and uneven demand expectations limit follow-through on the upside. As a result, price discovery has been driven less by strong directional conviction and more by rotation between value areas, bid blocks, and responsive supply zones. Recent price behavior reflects traders waiting for clearer demand signals before committing to a trend. What the Market Has Done? At the end of September the market sold off but found support around the 60.17 area. That initial drop appears to have been triggered by worries about economic growth and a stronger dollar undermining demand. At the start of October sellers stepped down and held the 62.3 level, which corresponds to the Composite Value area LVN. From that zone prices continued to sell off to 56.0 by mid-October. The continued selloff seems to reflect growing bearish conviction as macro data added to demand fears and inventories remained elevated. Buyers began to accumulate again, forming bid block 1. From there the market auctioned prices upward back to the 62.3 area where sellers were still present and defended that zone vigorously. From the last week of October up until the third week of November offers steadily stepped down as the market grinded lower, auctioning price down back toward bid block 1. Buyers responded by stepping up bids and holding the top of bid block 1 range. Throughout the last week of November the market balanced between 59.0 and 57.3, forming bid block 2 with clear buyer accumulation in that area. In the most recent week, the market balanced between 58.4 (roughly the midpoint of bid block 2) and 59.82 (17 November weekly VPOC). This shifted the weekly value area higher. Last Friday, the market managed a close above the previous week’s VAH, suggesting that buying strength may be gaining momentum. What to Expect This Coming Week? The key level to watch is 59.7, which was last week’s VAH. Bullish scenario If the market holds above 59.7, anticipate a possible move up toward the 61.0 area, which corresponds to a daily level 1 and the weekly 0.5 SD high. Expect sellers to possibly defend 61.0. If price breaks through that zone, the next target is 62.3 (Composite Low Value Area), which is confluent with the weekly 1 SD high. Bearish scenario If buyers cannot defend 59.7, the market could drop back through last week’s value area toward 59.0 (previous week’s VAL), confluent with the weekly 0.5 SD Low. Expect buyers to possibly defend 59.0 Should that support fail, price could move further down toward 58.0 (24 November weekly VPOC), which is confluent with the weekly 1 SD low. Neutral scenario If sellers respond at the 61.0 area or if buyers step up at 58.0, the market could balance here and potentially shift value higher as buyers accumulate. Conclusion In summary crude oil has been trading under pressure from macroeconomic headwinds and demand concerns while finding support at key zones. The market has rotated between zones and recently shows signs of buyer strength. The key 59.7 level will likely dictate whether price heads toward 61.0 or returns toward 58.0. What’s your outlook for Crude this week? Drop a comment and give this post a boost so more traders in the community can join the discussion! Thank you. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and manage your risk carefully.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by EdgeClear
Gold Weekly Playbook: Key Levels, Scenarios & Sentiment Triggers1. Macro Update Gold continues to trade within a macro environment defined by shifting rate expectations and evolving recession probabilities. With the Fed maintaining a data-dependent stance, the market remains highly sensitive to inflation and employment prints. Cooling inflation supports the case for rate cuts, pulling real yields lower and creating a constructive backdrop for gold. Conversely, stubborn inflation pushes the narrative toward “higher for longer,” often slowing upside momentum and encouraging more rotational price action. This doesn’t immediately turn GC bearish, but it does cap impulsive continuation as traders reassess forward guidance. Recession sentiment is the second major driver. Rising recession odds tend to benefit gold as investors rotate into safe-haven assets, even without imminent Fed easing. A persistent soft-landing narrative—stable labor markets, steady consumption—can reduce defensive flows and temper gold’s velocity. Overall, the macro backdrop remains cautiously supportive, but still very catalyst-driven. 2. What Has the Market Done? Gold has exhibited constructive price action, with the recent week imbalancing up and out of the 17 Nov weekly balance/value area. Importantly, the market closed at the highs of the week, signaling sustained buyer aggression and broad acceptance of higher prices. Weekly value and Volume point of Control (VPOC) have shifted upward, reinforcing a meaningful change in participant behavior: buyers are willing to transact at progressively higher prices, and sellers have not shown the ability to force price back into prior balance. This upward migration of value marks a firm shift in short-term sentiment. The market is also now at an important structural zone at 4251.3—the 13 Oct weekly VPOC and the 20 Oct weekly Low value area (LVA). How the market reacts at this level—rejecting, stalling, or accepting—will be a telling indicator of whether buyers maintain control or whether sellers can slow the advance. 3. What to Expect in the Coming Week The key level to watch this week: 4254.9 - Previous week/month’s settlement price This level acts as a major pivot for directional conviction. Holding above settlement supports the case for continuation; a sustained move below it increases the likelihood of rotation or deeper testing. Bullish Scenario If the market holds and accepts above 4254.9, upside continuation becomes likely. Target 1: 4378.6 (Weekly 1 Standard Deviation (SD) High) – expect responsive sellers. If market accepts above 4378.6: Target 2: 4436.2 (ATH region) – extended bullish objective. Bearish Scenario If the market fails to hold above 4254.9, expect sellers to target 4195.3 (previous week’s VPOC). Additional downside triggers: If buyers cannot reclaim 4261.3 (previous week’s high), pressure may push price through prior value toward 4136.5. If buyers then fail to reclaim back above 4195.3: Next target: 4131.2 (Weekly 1 SD Low / 17 Nov VPOC / Bid Block 3 midpoint). Continued seller control may extend the move toward 4070/80, aligned with the 2-week composite VAH and upper boundary of Bid Block 2. Neutral Scenario If neither buyers nor sellers show conviction, expect two-way consolidation around previous week’s settlement, 4254.9, between 4316.7 and 4193.1 (10 Nov weekly high / 20 Oct LVA / weekly 0.5 SD high). This remains the most probable balance zone unless a macro catalyst drives breakout behavior. This week’s structure is clean: one major pivot and clearly defined pathways for both sides. Whether GC breaks out or slips back into rotation will hinge on how price behaves around 4254.9. What’s your outlook for Gold this week? Drop a comment and give this post a boost so more traders in the community can join the discussion! Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade your own plan with proper risk management.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by EdgeClear
1
Volume EPO – One bar, seven volume stories Volume EPO – One bar, seven volume stories (VAKFN, Borsa Istanbul) This idea illustrates how different volume-classification methods can produce very different interpretations of the same bar. The Volume EPO overlay is used as a research tool to display seven methods side by side in a compact HUD. The example is taken from VAKFN on Borsa Istanbul. On this market, TradingView provides extended intrabar volume data (BIST volume data plan), which allows the Intrabar row of the table to be built from lower-timeframe up/down volume and used as a high-precision benchmark. Price is shown on the daily chart inside an ascending channel. The last daily bar in that structure is analyzed with the Volume EPO table on the right. Total volume on that bar is the same for every row (66.49M), but each method splits it into buy / sell / delta differently: - Intrabar (Ref) – lower-timeframe up/down volume ≈ 36.66M buy vs 29.83M sell → delta +6.83M (moderate net buying; benchmark “truth layer”). - BVC (Smart) – probabilistic split via normal CDF on normalized price change Delta ≈ +7.61M, very close to Intrabar (Diff ≈ 1.1%), confirming a mild buy imbalance. - Tick Rule – classic uptick/downtick classifier Because the close is above the previous close, the whole 66.49M is classified as buy volume → delta +66.49M (Diff ≈ 90%), an extremely bullish reading. - Lee-Ready Style – delayed midpoint quote test with Tick fallback On this bar the close falls on the sell side of the delayed midpoint, so the entire volume is classified as selling → delta −66.49M (Diff ≈ 110%), the exact opposite of Tick Rule. - Wick Imbalance – geometric supply/demand from upper vs lower wicks A strong upper wick and weak close again lead to a full sell reading → delta −66.49M (Diff ≈ 110%). - ML-Logit – logistic model of normalized return and volume deviation Shows only a small negative imbalance → delta ≈ −1.38M (Diff ≈ 12.1%), close to neutral flow. - Geometry – legacy CLV-style candle approximation With the close near the low of the range, more volume is assigned to sellers → delta ≈ −33.25M (Diff ≈ 60.1%), strong selling. On this single daily bar of VAKFN, the conclusions range from “mild net buying” (Intrabar, BVC) to “massive buying” (Tick Rule), “massive selling” (Lee-Ready Style, Wick Imbalance), “almost neutral” (ML-Logit), and “strong selling” (Geometry). Only the Intrabar row uses actual lower-timeframe up/down volume from TradingView; all other rows are models built on top of OHLCV. Access to deeper intrabar history on small timeframes (such as 1s/5s, depending on data plan and subscription level for BIST) strengthens this benchmark layer and makes it easier to see which methods stay close to the underlying flow and which ones drift away. This idea is presented as a research and educational example on VAKFN, not as a trade signal or financial advice.
BIST:VAKFNEducation
by ata_sabanci
10-Year Treasuries Into FOMC: What to Expect1. Big Picture: What’s Been Driving Bonds? Over the past several months, the U.S. Treasury market has been defined by diverging forces across the curve, the short end (2Y, 5Y) pricing near-term monetary policy outcomes and the long end (10Y, 30Y) reflecting inflation persistence, fiscal supply, and long-horizon term premium. The short end has behaved like a proxy for rate-cut expectations, compressing aggressively whenever inflation cools or recession probability ticks higher. Meanwhile, the long end has been more sensitive to duration demand, bond auctions, and forward-looking macro risk, often moving independently when supply shocks or inflation surprises hit the tape. The result? A curve driven by two narratives: policy timing vs long-run risk. This sets the stage for next week’s meeting and the reaction likely depends less on the cut itself and more on the messaging around rate trajectory. 2. What did the Market do? Following the U.S.–China tariff escalation in April (formerly referred to casually as the “Trump Tariff War,” though a better description is the Tariff Re-Escalation Phase), the ZN stabilized. Buyers stepped in between May to July 2025, compressing price toward the 112'08'0 region, which is a key daily resistance zone. In early September, momentum shifted. Buyers overwhelmed offers and lifted prices through 112'08'0, and the move appears linked to expectations of a softer policy stance and improving forward inflation indicators during the first week of September. Sellers responded at 113'07'0 area and market has been trapped in a three-month range between 113'25'0 high and 112'08'0 low. This week, price rotated from the top of range and swept through the composite LVN 113'00'0 to 112'24'0, near the 1st 3 weeks of November composite VPOC. 3. What to Expect: Scenarios Into FOMC Week Until the rate decision, compression seems likely. Expect 2 way indecision before FOMC: Expect two-way trade between 113'03'0 (LVN) and 112'24'0 (1st 3 weeks of Nov composite VPOC) as the market waits for the FOMC. Bearish Scenario (Base case): If sellers hold at 113'03'0, continuation lower toward 112'07'0 (range low / composite VAL) Bullish Scenario: If buyers reclaim 113'03'0 decisively, possible market move back up to 113'23'0 (Daily Range high), keeping the multi-month balance intact and potentially positioning for a breakout if FOMC guidance surprises dovish. 4. FOMC Risk: What Could Surprise the Market? The market is currently pricing ~88.6% probability of a 25bps cut which means the cut itself is not the event. The surprise lies in the tone. 🟢 Bullish Bond Reaction (Yields lower) if: Forward guidance hints at a sequence of cuts, not a one-off Growth risks emphasized > inflation risks Dovish dissent or language suggesting easing bias remains intact 🔴 Bearish Bond Reaction (Yields higher) if: The Fed downplays future cuts or signals higher-for-longer Inflation risk is prioritized Dot-plot or press Q&A implies only one cut on table Conclusion Unless the press conference delivers a clear dovish or hawkish surprise, expect a similar indecisive, two-way response in the markets, similar to past FOMC market reactions. What’s your call on ZN and the bond markets going into the week of FOMC? Drop a comment and give a boost so more traders can weigh in. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Analysis is for educational purposes only; trade your own plan and manage risk.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by EdgeClear
XAUUSD- Volume Profile AnalysisAt first glance, the chart may look a bit busy, but the structure is actually quite straightforward once you peel it off layer by layer. The Fall We start with the sharp October liquidation on the left. The volume profile over that entire downswing sets up a clean VAH-1, VAL-1, and POC-1, which are our key reference points for everything that follows. Early November Rally Early November price action is classic: price bases right around VAL-1, absorbs supply, and then launches into a swift breakout toward VAH-1. Textbook rotation from value-low to value-high. Importance of VAH VAH-1, as expected, caps the move and triggers a pullback right into the POC-2 of the November advance, which also happens to overlap with the prior breakout zone. A high confluence area where buyers stepped back in. The Sharp Pullback to Retest Price then coils around VAH-2, grinds higher, and retests VAH-1 but only to resist again. That repeated inability to hold above VAH-1 is a sign of pullback. A Perfect Alignment POC-3 and POC-4 line up almost perfectly, creating a stacked POC shelf and hence a structurally important zone. Add to that an active ascending trend channel that has been containing the structural swings also aligns with the POC shelf. Potential Setup Given this alignment, the 4075–4100 region becomes a potential demand pocket or a zone that could attract responsive buyers on any pullback, offering a comparatively low-risk long setup. On the flip side, price could simply squeeze higher from current levels, ripping past 4250 into the old highs. But that scenario doesn’t offer favorable risk-to-reward for fresh longs as the risk of breakout failure remains high in an extended market. But the real question is- How do you read this tape? Are we staring at the late stages of a tired rally, or shaping up for a classic pullback-and-continuation structure? Share your thoughts in the comment section below. Thanks for reading. 📣Disclaimer: Everything shared here is meant for education and general awareness only. It’s not financial advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Do your own research, manage your risk, and make sure you understand what you’re getting into.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bravetotrade
2
SQD - Entry huntingSQD rejected off of a long-term LVN, I am now looking to enter a long position at the end of the correction of this recent pump. No Target, just SL following given that we are at the low range of the All-Time Value Area I would attempt to trend-follow all the way to VAH Here is the HTF Context: SQD swept below the VAL where smart money accumulated (GG to everyone who entered here and still has longs running). SQD is currently trading at the all-time POC, its fairest price. No point in entering here. Watching reaction here.
Long
by jpkxyz
From Shutdown Relief to AI Anxiety — Two Narratives Driving ESMarket Theme The week began on a strong footing, driven by a bullish Sunday reopen in ES after news broke that the 43-day government shutdown was set to end, following the Senate’s late-night support for a potential agreement on November 9th. This relief catalyst created early upside momentum, pushing the index toward all-time highs (ATHs). However, the tone shifted mid-week. The rally lost steam as markets refocused on a growing concern: the sustainability of current Tech and AI valuations. Investors are becoming more sensitive to the possibility of overstretched AI-related capital expenditure and an emerging bubble narrative, especially with heavyweight earnings and forward-guidance looming. This led to a rotation out of high-beta tech and into safer or less-extended sectors. On the macro front, Fed speakers adopted a more cautious—if not outright hawkish—tone, emphasizing that a December rate cut is far from assured. The recent government shutdown created a backlog in key economic data releases, leaving policymakers and traders alike without clear visibility into the true state of the economy. The lack of data has amplified uncertainty and reduced the market’s conviction around the timing of any potential policy easing. In short: The market is caught between two opposing forces: The optimistic narrative (shutdown resolved, path to ATHs, resilience in U.S. growth), and The risk narrative (valuation excess, policy uncertainty, narrowing breadth). This push-pull dynamic has resulted in compression rather than continuation, with a heavy focus on clarity from upcoming data and major earnings. What is the Market Doing? Last week formed an inside week, with the entire range trading within the prior week’s range and settling close to the previous week’s close. This signals indecision and balance, as neither buyers nor sellers had the conviction to push the market into expansion. Current price action shows the market compressing between: 6875 — previous week’s VPOC / 27 Oct weekly VAL 6740— 13 Oct weekly VAH / 10 Nov weekly volume ledge These levels are well-defined and respected. The upward trendline continues to hold, with multiple strong rejections signaling responsive buyers stepping in to bid prices back up. The battle is now between buyers attempting to defend 6740 area which is also confluent with the daily trendline support, and sellers leaning on the overhead resistance close to 6875. What to Expect in the Coming Week The key line in the sand (LIS) this week: → 6755.25 — Previous week's settlement Bullish Scenario If 6755 holds as support, expect buyers to attempt a push toward: 6874.50 — previous week's VPOC 6905.5— weekly 1-SD volatility high Anticipate responsive sellers in this area. However, if price breaks above 6874.50 with pace and volume and accepts above it, the path opens for a retest of the ATHs as momentum players and trapped shorts fuel continuation. Bearish Scenario If the market accepts below 6755 and fails to reclaim it on any pullback: First downside target: 6660 — 13 Oct weekly VAL If buyers fail to respond there, expect an acceleration lower from long liquidation toward: 6605— weekly 1-SD volatility low 6504 — previous month's low (deeper target) This scenario strengthens if the trendline breaks and sellers begin stepping down aggressively. Neutral / Compression Scenario If the market remains trapped between 6875 and 6740 with no breakout supported by pace and volume: Expect two-way rotational trade Continued compression and balance within the well-defined range A buildup of energy that may resolve later in the week with data, earnings or fundamental catalysts Conclusion As we start the new week, ES remains tightly coiled between well-defined levels, with the market waiting for clarity from data, earnings, and policy signals. Whether we break from compression or continue to balance, the key will be how buyers and sellers respond around 6755 and whether there are new fundamental catalysts. As always, I’d love to hear your view on the markets and ES this week? — Drop it below — and give it a boost so more of the community can join the conversation. Glossary Index for all technical terms used: VAH (Value Area High) VAL (Value Area Low) VPOC (Volume Point of Control) SD (Standard Deviation)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
11
GBPAUD: volume Profile and Static levelsHello everyone! This is the daily chart! As you can see, there 2 channels here. One bearish and the other one is bullish. In coincide of two supports of them we see a strong previous S&R! V.P of October is out strong resistance! We see a great momentum after it. There is middle of the bearish channel around too. If we see a weak upward move, we can enter a short trade around the volume profile POC. The TP is just over the static support and around the dynamic support. You can also buy from support if we see a weakness in bears.
Short
by AliSignals
Balances and Imbalances in Gold🔴 Why Point of Control (POC) Acts as Strong Support or Resistance to Create a Balance In a Volume Profile, the Point of Control (POC) represents the price level where the highest traded volume occurred during a specific period. This level attracts attention because it reflects the fairest price accepted by both buyers and sellers. ➥ In an Uptrend: When the market is trending higher, previous POCs often act as strong support zones. Traders who missed earlier entries tend to buy when price revisits these high-volume levels, believing them to be fair-value areas within the broader uptrend. Moreover, institutional participants often reload positions near the POC since liquidity is abundant there. In short, when price revisits a past POC during an uptrend, demand tends to emerge again, creating a bounce from that level. ➥ In a Downtrend: Conversely, in a downtrend, previous POCs act as strong resistance zones. What was once a fair price for buyers now becomes a fair price for sellers. Market participants who were trapped at higher levels use these zones to exit or add fresh short positions. Thus, when price rallies toward a prior POC, supply often re-enters, leading to rejection or a pullback. In this backdrop, let's discuss Gold chart. 🔴 Gold Chart Analysis in This Context In the above 1H chart of Gold, the relationship between price and POC is clearly visible. ➥During the earlier part of the chart, Gold is in an uptrend. Each time the price retraced, it found support around the previous session’s POC. These levels acted as liquidity zones, where strong buying interest reappeared, helping the price continue its upward leg. This repetitive structure created a classic “staircase” pattern - each rally was followed by a controlled pullback to the prior POC, confirming the zone as a demand base. ➥However, as momentum shifted, Gold entered a downtrend. In this phase, the same POC logic flipped - price began reacting bearishly around previous POCs. Each time the market attempted to rally, it stalled or reversed near those old value areas, signaling that sellers were defending the former fair-value levels. This behavior turned prior supports into resistance shelves, reinforcing the bearish control. ➥Currently, price seems to be retesting one such POC zone near the $4000 zone. If sellers maintain control, the next leg lower could unfold toward the next lower-volume pocket or untested POC zone. But before that we need some sign of weakness near 4000- shortening of the thrust/lack of buying interest/impulsive selling etc. before pulling the trigger or else 4125 to 4150 might be on the cards. What do think at this point? Will it pass through the resistance zone or react sharply back to 3900. Do comment and 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Bravetotrade
Tesla: Guided by the Point of Control🔎Understanding How Stocks React at Key Volume Profile Levels In this post, let’s study how a stock can react around important Volume Profile levels and how we, as traders, can take advantage of this behavior. 🔘 A Quick Look at Volume Profile The Volume Profile shows how much trading took place at each price level. Think of it like a sideways histogram that highlights where buyers and sellers were most active. It helps identify price zones that the market accepted (heavy trading) and those it rejected (light trading). In between a Volume Profile is the Point of Control (POC) - the price level where the highest trading volume occurred. This is often considered as the market’s fair value zone, where buyers and sellers found the most agreement. The POC tends to act like a magnet for price. When price moves too far away from it, it often returns to test that level since it represents strong trading interest. That’s why traders use POC zones to mark key supports, resistances, and potential entry areas. In short: The Volume Profile shows where trading happened. The POC shows where it mattered the most. 🔘 Overview: TSLA’s Story After printing a high of $414 in 2021, Tesla (TSLA) has been trying to decisively break that level for almost four years. It made two attempts - first in December 2024, which was quickly faded, and again in September 2025. 🔘 The Fall and Bottom Formation The stock went through a major bearish phase from $414 down to $101 in 2022 - a massive 75% drop. Then came a sharp V-shaped rally from the bottom - a 194% rise over about 28 weeks, retracing roughly 60% of the entire fall in a short span. 🔘 Why It’s Hard to Catch the Bottom Catching a stock at the exact bottom is one of the hardest things in trading. No one really knows when the real bottom is forming. At that point, fear is high, sentiment is negative, and the trend still looks weak. Most traders wait for confirmation - but by then, the bottom is already behind. Catching the exact low becomes more like a luck than skill. No doubt 'smart traders' focus on catching the early reversal and not the perfect bottom, there are others who wait for pullback opportunities to a fair price. 🔘 April 2024 Bottom Formation After rallying sharply, TSLA began to pull back from around $300 in July 2023. Traders who had missed the earlier move were waiting patiently with their limit orders for a healthy correction. But the question was - where should those limit orders be placed? ◽️At the breakout zone around $218? ◽️Near the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement? ◽️Or below the April 2023 low near $152 for a possible liquidity grab? The truth is - nobody actually knows the exact level because nothing works all the time. However, the POC can often help identify a probable fair value zone where accumulation tends to happen. Although we can’t pinpoint the exact level where a pullback will end, the area 'around' the POC often serves as one of the most reliable zones to accumulate a bullish stock. And that’s exactly what happened in April 2024. The stock dipped below the previous rally’s POC, grabbed liquidity under $152, and then reversed sharply. 🔘 The Sharp Rally to New Highs After that, TSLA entered a strong bullish phase, rallying from the April 2024 low to new highs above $414 in December 2024 - a massive 252% rise. If you observe the Range Tool on the chart, you’ll notice a pattern - bearish phases take longer, while bullish rallies happen faster. A question here arises: Was this rally sustainable above previous highs? 🔘 The Quick Fall In January 2025, the stock saw a sharp fall from $488, wiping out 78% of the previous rally. Interestingly, this decline didn’t stop at a typical breakout retest level - instead, it halted exactly at the POC of the prior bullish rally and began consolidating there. Since then, the stock has climbed back near its previous highs. But note this - the January 2025 fall lasted only 16 weeks, while the recovery has taken over 25 weeks without new highs, suggesting a slight loss of upside momentum compared to earlier rallies (early 2023 and late 2024) 🔘 What to Watch Next If TSLA pulls back again in the future, we can draw a new Volume Profile over the latest bullish leg to locate its POC (I have drawn till the current high of the rally) That level could once again serve as a potential fair value area and possibly repeat the same price behavior we’ve seen before. What is your thought on point of control as a tool for investment purpose? Share your views and hit the boost for more educational posts in future. 📣Disclaimer: Everything shared here is meant for education and general awareness only. It’s not financial advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any asset. Do your own research, manage your risk, and make sure you understand what you’re getting into. Your money, your responsibility; and if you’re unsure, ask a qualified financial professional. (Or at least run it by your pet - they’re great listeners 🐶).
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Bravetotrade
7
BITCOIN UpdateBitcoin — 104,716 POC in Play: Rotation or Breakdown? Context BTC remains trapped in a daily inside-bar range, digesting last week’s expansion. Structure shows fading momentum within value, signaling a potential bearish transition. Technical Map • Point of Control (POC): 104,716.97 (key range Level) — line in the sand between control and collapse. • Price Action: Low-volume compression near the POC; buyers fading as market pauses below mid-value. • Key Target: 103,516.75 — next liquidity shelf if sellers keep pressure. • Momentum: Bearish drift persists; initiative buying remains weak. • Invalidation: Daily close back above 104,716 flips tone to neutral-bullish. Fundamental Pulse Markets are in a macro digestion phase: • U.S. GDP & Core PCE data next week = volatility bottleneck ahead. • Fed speaker blackout window keeps tone muted. • Yields steady, crypto flows thin, and ETF inflows subdued — explaining the slow volume and cautious tape. This is the classic “positioning pause” before macro catalysts hit. Trade Plan Below 104,716, bias remains bearish toward 103,516.75. Mindset Pulse The chart breathes in before it exhales volatility.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CORE5DAN
XAUUSD - MARKET CONTEXT I SEP/29/2025-After yesterday’s PCE session, gold continues to maintain its bullish structure and is currently trading around 3816. -Defensive flows remain in place as the USD has yet to show a strong recovery. -On the H1/H4 chart, gold is still in a clear uptrend, consistently forming Higher Lows. 🔎 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 📊PRICE STRUCTURE Main trend: Bullish Key support zones: 3795 – 3800 (Liquidity + Old High zone) → critical retest zone if price pulls back. 3780 – 3785 (PoC zone) → confluence with the rising trendline. Resistance zone: 3828 – 3830 (Liquidity zone & short-term resistance). If broken, the next target could be 3845 – 3850. 📊VOLUME PROFILE Current POC: around 3780, acting as strong support. VaH: 3803 – 3805 → if price holds above this area, the bullish trend remains dominant. 📊PRICE ACTION After a strong rally, the market may consolidate sideways around 3810 – 3820 before breaking out. If 3795 is broken, gold may retest 3780 before recovering. 🟢 SCENARIO 1 – BUY PULLBACK AT SUPPORT Entry: 3795 – 3800 or 3780 – 3785 (Liquidity + Old High + POC zone). SL: below 3770 TP1: 3825 TP2: 3845 TP3: 3855+ ✅ Rationale: Confluence of Old High + Liquidity + rising trendline. Main structure still shows Higher Low – Higher High → prioritize buying dips at support. Declining volume during pullbacks → high probability of rebound. 🟡 SCENARIO 2 – BUY BREAKOUT Entry: When H1 candle closes above 3828 – 3830. SL: below 3810. TP1: 3845 TP2: 3860+ ✅ Rationale: This is short-term resistance. If broken with strong volume, the market will confirm a new bullish structure. A successful breakout could extend targets toward 3850 – 3860. 📌 STRATEGY SUMMARY Prioritize BUY with the main trend at support (3795 – 3800 / 3780 – 3785). Consider BUY BREAKOUT if H1 closes above 3830. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn109713852
9
USOIL H1 – Trading Plan I SEP/29/2025Crude Oil (USOIL) is currently consolidating between the POC zone (65.14) and the Support/Resistance area (64.70 – 64.80). Market structure shows both bullish and bearish possibilities depending on whether these key levels hold or break Here are 4 possible scenarios with entry signals to watch: 📊 Scenario 1 – Rebound from Support/Resistance Watch zone: 64.70 – 64.80 (Support/Resistance). Price action: Bullish reversal candlestick (Pin bar, Bullish engulfing) with volume confirmation. Trading signal: 👉 Buy around 64.70 – 64.80 🎯 TP1: 65.14 (POC zone) 🎯 TP2: 65.56 – 65.79 (Supply zone) ⛔ SL: below 64.40 (Demand zone). 📊 Scenario 2 – Breakout above Supply Zone Watch zone: 65.56 – 65.79 (Supply zone). Price action: H1 candle closes above 65.80 with strong volume. Trading signal: 👉 Buy breakout above 65.80 🎯 TP1: 66.20 🎯 TP2: 66.80 ⛔ SL: below 65.40. 📊 Scenario 3 – Breakdown of Support/Resistance Watch zone: 64.70 – 64.80. Price action: H1 candle closes below 64.70 with strong bearish momentum. Trading signal: 👉 Sell on pullback to 64.70 🎯 TP1: 64.40 (Demand zone) 🎯 TP2: 63.80 ⛔ SL: above 65.10. 📊 Scenario 4 – Breakdown of Demand Zone Watch zone: 64.20 – 64.40 (Demand zone). Price action: H1 candle closes below 64.20 with increasing volume. Trading signal: 👉 Sell breakout below 64.20 🎯 TP1: 63.60 🎯 TP2: 63.00 ⛔ SL: above 64.60. 👉 Summary: Holding above 64.70 favors Buy setups. Breaking below 64.70 favors Sell setups. Key short-term battle zone: 65.56 – 65.79 Supply area. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
TVC:USOIL
by UnknownUnicorn109713852
JD.com: accumulation, golden cross, and a chance to restart JD.com remains one of China’s largest e-commerce players, and despite macroeconomic headwinds, the company continues to hold its ground. Fundamentally, JD is focused on optimizing logistics, cutting costs, and expanding its cloud segment. Government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand also provide support. Risks remain tied to China’s economic slowdown and fierce competition from Alibaba and PDD, but at current levels the stock looks attractive for long-term investors. Technically, the 4H chart shows a breakout of the descending trendline and the formation of a golden cross (50 EMA crossing above 200 EMA), confirming a medium-term trend shift. Price has consolidated above the accumulation zone and is now testing $34.50–35.00. If momentum holds, the next upside targets are $41.00 and $46.00, key resistance levels. A more conservative scenario involves a pullback toward $33.00–32.50, followed by another upward leg. This is exactly the kind of market situation where investor expectations diverge from reality, and the longer it lasts the more it seems like a trend reversal is near. But as always, emotions must be set aside and clear signals awaited before committing.
NASDAQ:JDLong
by InvestWorld_777
CONTEXT AFTER POWELL’S SPEECH I SEP/24/2025- Gold is trading around 3775, after a rebound from 3752–3755 (H1 old high retest + trendline support). - The structure remains bullish, but price is capped by resistance at 3780–3790 (H1 VaH zone + H1 PoC zone). 🟢 Scenario 1 – BUY if holding above 3752–3760 Conditions: Price pulls back but holds 3752–3760 support. Bullish confirmation candle appears (Pin Bar, Engulfing). Reasoning: Confluence of short-term trendline + old high retest zone. If gold holds above, the bullish structure remains valid. 📍 Entry: 3755–3760 🛑 SL: below 3745 🎯 TP1: 3785 (VaH zone) 🎯 TP2: 3800–3804 (major H1/H4 resistance) 🟡 Scenario 2 – BUY on breakout above 3785–3790 Conditions: Clear breakout and H1 candle close above 3785–3790 (VaH). Pullback holds above 3780. Reasoning: Breakout above VaH + PoC opens the way for a strong bullish leg. Potential target expansion toward 3820–3830. 📍 Entry: Buy 3788–3792 after pullback 🛑 SL: below 3775 🎯 TP1: 3805 🎯 TP2: 3820–3830 🔴 Scenario 3 – Short-term SELL at 3785–3790 Conditions: Price tests 3785–3790 but fails to break out. Strong rejection appears (Pin Bar / Fakey). Reasoning: H1 VaH zone + old liquidity highs → potential buyer trap. 📍 Entry: 3785–3790 🛑 SL: above 3800 🎯 TP1: 3770 🎯 TP2: 3755 ⚠️ Scenario 4 – SELL if breakdown below 3752 Conditions: Price breaks 3752 and closes H1 below this key level. Reasoning: 3752 is the critical trend support. A breakdown could send price toward 3737–3740 or deeper to 3720. 📍 Entry: Sell 3748–3752 on breakdown 🛑 SL: above 3765 🎯 TP1: 3737 🎯 TP2: 3720 📌 Strategy Summary - Main trend: Bullish, favor BUY setups above 3752–3760. - Key resistance: 3785–3790 → breakout confirms next bullish wave. - If 3752 fails, switch to short-term SELLs targeting 3737–3720
OANDA:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn109713852
4 Possible Scenarios for USOIL (WTI Crude Oil, H1) I SEP/24/2025Scenario 1: Price Rejects Supply Zone (63.80 – 63.94) The Supply Zone at 63.80–63.94 has acted as a strong resistance. If price fails to break above this zone, a short-term pullback is likely. Nearest target: POC zone at 63.05. If this level is broken, price could move further down to the Liquidity Zone at 62.36. 👉 This is a short-term bearish scenario. Scenario 2: Price Breaks Supply Zone and Moves Higher If price breaks out and closes an H1 candle above 63.94, the short-term bullish trend will be confirmed. The Supply Zone will then flip into a support area. Next potential target: 64.50 – 65.00. 👉 This is a strong bullish scenario, but confirmation is required. Scenario 3: Price Pulls Back to POC Zone (63.05) and Bounces The POC zone (Point of Control) at 63.05 is a key volume balance level. If price retraces here and strong buying pressure appears, a bounce back toward the Supply Zone (63.80–63.94) is likely. 👉 This is a sideway-accumulation then bullish scenario. Scenario 4: Price Drops Deep into Demand Zone (61.76) If strong selling pressure breaks through the Liquidity Zone (62.36), price may fall deeper to the Demand Zone at 61.76. This is a key demand level where a short-term bottom could form, followed by a strong rebound. 👉 This is a deep bearish then recovery scenario. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Please manage your own risk before making any trading decisions.
TVC:USOIL
by UnknownUnicorn109713852
GENERAL CONTEXT I SEP/23/2025🔎 GENERAL CONTEXT - Gold continues to maintain a strong uptrend, reflected by the Higher High – Higher Low structure. - Price just touched the H1 VaH zone ~3757 and showed a small reaction → indicating short-term selling pressure. - However, multiple key support levels lie below (3739 – 3720), allowing potential recovery. - The 3775–3780 zone is considered an extended target if the bullish trend continues. 📍 TRADING SCENARIOS 🟢 Scenario 1 – BUY at 3739 (H1 Support) 🔺 Conditions: Price pulls back to 3739 Bullish reversal signals appear (Pin Bar / Engulfing M15–H1) Volume holds steady 🔹 Reason: Nearest support after VaH Structure remains bullish → priority on trend-following buys 🎯 TP: 3757 → 3775 🛑 SL: below 3732 🟡 Scenario 2 – BUY at 3720 (H1 POC zone) 🔺 Conditions: Price retests 3720 POC Strong absorption and bullish candles appear 🔹 Reason: POC is often a key volume balance zone → buyers likely to react Confluence with H1 uptrend line 🎯 TP: 3750 → 3765 🛑 SL: below 3712 🔴 Scenario 3 – SELL reaction at 3757–3760 (H1 VaH zone) 🔺 Conditions: Price retests 3757–3760 Strong rejection (Bearish Pin Bar / Engulfing) 🔹 Reason: VaH often acts as a profit-taking zone and potential buyer trap If breakout fails → likely short-term pullback 🎯 TP: 3740 → 3720 🛑 SL: above 3765 ⚠️ Scenario 4 – BUY breakout above 3760 🔺 Conditions: H1 candle closes above 3760 Pullback holds above 3757 🔹 Reason: Successful breakout of VaH zone → uptrend expansion May trigger new buying momentum supported by news / market flows 🎯 TP: 3775 → 3785 🛑 SL: below 3750 📌 SUMMARY - Main trend remains bullish → priority on BUY setups at 3739–3720 supports. - SELL only if strong rejection signals appear at 3757–3760. - Zone 3775–3780 is the short-term extended target. - Manage risk strictly as price is at new highs → high volatility risk.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn109713852
Sellers in Control AfterEUR/USD hit a major resistance zone between 1.18500 – 1.19000, which aligns with the Monthly Volume Profile resistance area. Price has rejected this zone with lower highs and decreasing volume — a classic bearish signal. This setup suggests that a Wave 4 correction may be underway, with potential to target 1.15500 and even 1.14500 if selling pressure accelerates. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage your risk appropriately.
Short
by ConcordDeath