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Gold setup: The retracement that could spark the next rallyOANDA:XAUUSD continues to trade confidently within a well-defined ascending channel, maintaining a clear and healthy bullish structure. After testing the upper boundary, the price pulled back to the mid-zone, where a strong rejection candle appeared, confirming that buyers are still defending key levels with conviction and keeping the upward momentum alive. This kind of market behavior often signals renewed strength before the next move higher. If the bullish momentum holds, the price could break above the upper boundary of the channel and push toward new highs. Given the current technical setup and positive sentiment across the market, a move toward 4,500 seems both realistic and consistent with the ongoing trend. Even so, caution remains important. A daily close below the lower boundary of the channel would weaken the bullish structure and could trigger a short-term correction before the trend resumes. From a broader perspective, the bullish outlook for gold continues to be supported by geopolitical tensions, global uncertainty over interest rate policies, and the weakening US dollar. With central banks maintaining strong demand for gold as a hedge against economic instability, the precious metal remains one of the most attractive safe-haven assets in today’s volatile market.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Erikk_Kraft
1
USDJPY Technical Analysis – Bearish Reversal UnderwayAfter failing to hold above the short-term resistance zone near 0.00666, USDJPY has shown clear rejection signals, leading to a strong break below the cluster of EMAs (20/50/100/200). The price is now retesting this confluence area, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward leg if sellers maintain control. From a structure standpoint, the market has shifted from a higher-high sequence into a lower-high → lower-low pattern, confirming bearish momentum. The rejection candle near the EMA200 acted as a key trigger for short entries. Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 0.00663 – 0.00664 (EMA confluence + previous structure) Support 1: 0.00658 (intermediate target) Support 2: 0.00657 – 0.00654 (Fibonacci 0.618 extension zone) Trading Strategy Primary bias: Sell on pullback Entry zone: 0.00662 – 0.00663 Stop-loss: Above 0.00664 (previous high / EMA cross) Take-profit targets: 0.00658 → 0.00657 → 0.00654 As long as price remains below the 100- and 200-EMA cluster, bearish pressure is expected to dominate. A confirmed daily close beneath 0.00658 could open the door for an extended drop toward 0.00650. Stay patient, wait for rejection confirmations, and remember: discipline > prediction. Follow for more daily trade plans and strategy insights.
by Henrybillion
4
USDJPY Holds Gains Above 150The USDJPY is currently trading above the mid-zone of a well-respected ascending channel that has been in place since the April 2025 lows, and below its upper boundary. Two critical confirmation levels define the near-term projection: • Bullish Scenario: o A sustained hold above 150 (the channel’s mid-zone) keeps the price aligned with the upper boundary near 153.30. o A confirmed breakout above 153.30 would signal a continuation toward the 2025 highs near 157, and potentially higher — supported by a bullish rebound in the weekly RSI from oversold territory (as shown in the upcoming chart). • Bearish Scenario: o A close back below 150 would expose the pair to a deeper correction toward the channel’s lower boundary near 147.30, which also aligns with the 0.44 Fibonacci retracement of the rebound between April 2025 (139.88) and October 2025 (151.16). o Should the lower boundary break, the bullish scenario would fade, with potential downside targets at 145.00 and 142.80. - Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREX.com
Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to youGold resumed its upward momentum on Monday, primarily driven by multiple positive factors. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see stance ahead of its monetary policy meeting, with the upcoming inflation data set to serve as a key guide. Meanwhile, the U.S. government’s fiscal deadlock has introduced uncertainty, providing additional safe-haven premium for gold. The persistence of heightened tensions in the Middle East has further highlighted gold’s hedging function.​ In the long run, the steady gold purchase demand from global central banks and ETF holdings have formed solid support for gold prices, effectively offsetting short-term volatility. Additionally, the performance of traditional safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, together with the U.S. dollar, has jointly influenced gold’s appeal.​ From the 4-hour chart analysis, gold oscillated below the critical level of 4,380. However, driven by safe-haven buying in the evening, it broke through this resistance level strongly, indicating that bulls have regained dominance. This breakthrough confirms the short-term strong pattern, and the key focus for the intraday downside is the 4,300 level, which has now transformed into a new support zone.​ In terms of operation, the strategy should shift to following the trend and going long, prioritizing opportunities to enter positions on pullbacks to lower levels. This rapid rally and recovery of lost ground have once again verified the strength of the current bullish momentum. Given the high market volatility, it is advisable to remain patient, wait for price corrections to enter long positions, and set stop-losses properly. Today's Gold Trading Strategy xauusd@buy:4310-4320 pt:4340-4350 sl:4295
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Gold prices are currently consolidating at a high level near $4,Gold prices are currently consolidating at a high level near $4,326. Upside Resistance: Initial focus is on the $4,366-4,381 range, the recent all-time high. A strong breakout would open up the potential for further gains to $4,420. Downside Support: Key support lies near $4,326, followed by $4,296-4,300. A break below this level could trigger a further correction to the stronger support range of $4,214-4,162. Bull Market Trend Expectation: On the daily chart, the moving averages are bullish, maintaining the overall upward trend. Short-Term Adjustment Pressure: The weekly and daily KDJ indicators formed a death cross in overbought territory, and some profit-taking is also putting pressure on gold prices. Specific Strategy: Short-term traders: Go long after the pullback stabilizes. If gold finds support near $4,326 and shows signs of stabilization, consider a light long position with an initial target of $4,360-4,380. If gold prices retreat to the core support level of $4,296-4,300 and stabilize, this presents a safer long opportunity with the same target as above, but with a tight stop-loss. For long positions, a stop-loss below $4,290 is recommended. Maintaining a light position is crucial due to high volatility. Overall, there is short-term technical pullback pressure from the all-time high. For short-term traders, the key is to identify signs of stabilization near support levels and set a tight stop-loss order.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Freja_Golden
Gold Bull Market Outlook And Targets: 5000 USD/7500 USDGold Bull Markets Long Term Overview and 2025 Market Update ________________________________________ 🌊 Five-Wave Roadmap — Targets & Timing • Wave 1 (2016–2020): From ~$1,050–1,200 to the COVID-era spike; established secular up-trend. • Wave 2 (2020–2022): Consolidation/corrective pullback (~–20%). • Wave 3 (2023–2025/26): Power leg to ATHs (current). Room to extend toward $4,200–$4,500 on flow surges before pausing. • Wave 4 (2026, base case): Re-accumulation/consolidation ~12 months; likely range-bound –10% to –15% from the Wave-3 peak as institutional buying digests gains. • Wave 5 (2027–2030/32): Final thrust to the cycle’s terminal zone: – First objective: $5,000–$5,500 (consistent with 2026 Street “bull wave” scenarios). – Terminal extension: $7,500–$8,000 by 2030–2032 (our desk’s stretch path if real yields stay muted, official-sector demand persists, and private capital rotation broadens). Why Wave-4 can last ~12 months: prior secular bulls often paused for a full year near major breakouts while flows “change hands.” Expect lower realized vol, fading retail FOMO, and steady official accumulation to define the tape. 📈 Top 10 Stats of the Current Bull 2025 1. Price & ATHs: Spot ~$3.75–$3.79k; fresh ATH $3,790.82 on Sep 23, 2025. 2. 2025 YTD: Roughly +40–43% YTD 3. Central Banks: 1,045 t added in 2024 (later revised to ~1,086 t as lagged data came in). H1/Q1’25 tracking remained elevated. 4. ETF Flows: Back-to-back strong quarters; Q2’25 total demand 1,249 t, value US$132bn (+45% y/y) with ETFs instrumental. 5. Gold vs Equities: Gold ≈+40% vs S&P 500 ≈+13% total return YTD. 6. Jewelry Demand: Tonnage softened as prices surged; value at records (2024 down y/y; weakness persisted into H1’25). 7. Gold–Silver Ratio: ~85–88 (silver torque improving as it pushes into the mid-$40s). 8. Macro Link: Safe-haven bid + expected policy easing keep real-yield headwinds contained. 9. Technical: Confirmed 13-yr cup-and-handle breakout (Mar ’24) underpinning trend. 10. Street Forecasts: GS baseline $4,000 by mid-’26; bulled-up houses (HSBC/BofA) flag $4.9–$5.0k potential into 2026 if private/ETF rotation persists. • This cycle is different: record central-bank buying + renewed ETF inflows + lower real rates = powerful tailwind. • Price: Gold notched fresh ATHs this month (up to $3,790.82). 2025 is shaping up as the strongest year since the late 1970s. • Relative: Gold is crushing equities YTD (≈+40% vs S&P 500 ≈+13% total return). • Setup: A 13-year “cup-and-handle” breakout in 2024 kick-started the move. • Outlook: Street base cases cluster near $4,000 by mid-’26; several houses now publish $4,900–$5,000 stretch targets into 2026 as flows accelerate. ________________________________________ 🏆 Historic Gold Bull Markets — Timeline & Stats 1. 1968–1980 “Super Bull” • Start/End: ~$35 → $850 (Jan 1980) • Gain: ~2,330% • Drivers: End of Bretton Woods, oil shocks, double-digit inflation, geopolitical stress. • Drawdown: ~–45% (1974–1976) before the final blow-off run. 2. 1999–2011/12 • Start/Peak: ~$252 (1999) → ~$1,920 (2011–12) • Gain: ~650% • Drivers: Commodities supercycle, EM demand, USD weakness, GFC safe-haven bid. 3. 2016/2018–Present (The “CB-Led” Cycle) • Start Zone: $1,050–$1,200 → New ATH $3,790 (Sep 2025) • Gain: ~215–260% (depending on 2016 vs 2018 anchor) • Drivers: Record central-bank accumulation, sticky inflation/low real rates, geopolitics; 2024 13-yr base breakout. ________________________________________ 📊 At-A-Glance Comparison (Updated 2025) Metric | 1968–80 Super Bull | 1999–2012 | 2016/18–2025 Current 🚀 Total Gain | ~2,330% | ~650% | ~215–260% (so far) ⏲️ Duration | 12 yrs | 13 yrs | 7–9 yrs (ongoing) 💔 Max Drawdown | ~–45% (’74–’76) | ~–30% (’08) | ~–20% (2022) 🏦 Main Buyer | Retail/Europe | Funds/EM | Central Banks 🏛️ Pattern | Secular parabolic | Cyclical ramps | 13-yr base → breakout (’24) Notes: current-cycle characteristics validated by WGC demand trends & the 2024 technical breakout. ________________________________________ ________________________________________ ________________________________________ 🔄 What Makes This Bull Different 2025 Edition • 🏦 Central-Bank Dominance — Third consecutive 1k+ tonne year in 2024; 2025 is still tracking strong on a run-rate basis. This “sticky” demand is from price-insensitive reserve managers. • ⚡ Faster Recoveries — Drawdowns are shallower/shorter vs the 1970s analog, consistent with a structural rather than speculative buyer base. • 📈 Coexisting With Risk Assets — ATHs with equities positive YTD = macro hedge + diversification bid, not just “panic buying.” • 📐 Structural Breakout — 13-yr base cleared in 2024; market now in multi-year price discovery. ________________________________________ 🎯 Strategy Ideas 2025 & Beyond • Buy/Hold on Dips: Stagger entries (DCA) into physical (allocated), ETFs (e.g., GLD/IAU), and quality miners/royalties. • Prefer Physical/Allocated where counterparty risk matters; use ETFs for liquidity and tactical tilts. Satellite/Leverage • Silver & GSR Mean-Reversion: With GSR ~85–88, silver historically offers torque in up-legs. Pair with high-quality silver miners. • Factor Tilt in Miners: Prioritize low AISC, strong balance sheets, reserve growth, rule-of-law jurisdictions; emphasize free-cash-flow yield and disciplined capex. Risk-Management • Define max drawdown per sleeve; pre-plan trims near parabolic extensions or if macro invalidates (e.g., real-yield spike). • Use options overlays (collars on miners; long-dated calls on physical proxies) to shape payoff in Wave-3 late innings and Wave-4 digestion. ________________________________________ 🧪 Reality Check: What Could Invalidate the Bull? • Real yields + USD rip higher (sustained) → compress gold’s opportunity cost. • Official-sector buying stalls (policy or FX-reserve shifts) → removes the anchor bid. • Growth re-acceleration + faster-than-expected disinflation → weaker safe-haven + fewer rate cuts. • Technical break: a persistent move below ~$3,600–3,700 would question Wave-3 extension and pull forward Wave-4. ________________________________________ 🧭 Quick Reference Tables 🧾 Summary: Historic vs Current Feature | 1968–80 | 1999–2012 | 2016/18–2025 Total Gain | ~2,330% | ~650% | ~215–260% Duration | 12 yrs | 13 yrs | 7–9 yrs (ongoing) Correction | ~–45% | ~–30% | ~–20% (’22) Main Buyer | Retail/Europe | Funds/EM | Central Banks Pattern | Parabolic | Cyclical | Cup & Handle → Secular 🧩 “If-This-Then-That” Playbook • If real yields fall & CB buying persists → Ride trend / add on consolidations. • If USD + real yields jump → Trim beta, keep core hedge. • If GSR stays >80 with silver momentum → Overweight silver sleeve for torque. ________________________________________ 🔚 Key Takeaways Updated • Twin pillars: relentless official-sector demand + 2024 structural breakout. • Base case: Street ~$3.7–4.0k by mid-’26 with upside to $4.5–5.0k on accelerated private/ETF rotation. • Roadmap: Extend Wave-3 → Wave-4 re-accumulation (~12 months) → Wave-5 to $5,000–$5,500, then $7,500–$8,000 by 2030–2032 under favorable macro/flow dynamics. • Operating stance: keep core, add on dips/sideways phases, manage beta and drawdowns proactively.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
48
GOLD → Consolidation. 4269 - trigger. Chances for growth?Gold is consolidating due to uncertainty. On Friday, the market broke its local structure, which slightly changed sentiment. Focus on current consolidation. Key drivers of the week: Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and China's response supported demand for safe havens. Problems with regional banks (Zions, Western Alliance) and the fall in Treasury bond yields below 4% increased the inflow into gold. Powell maintained a neutral tone, but markets are expecting two rate cuts in 2024. All eyes are on inflation data, US-China negotiations, developments between Russia, the US, and China; any de-escalation of the situation could trigger a correction. Technically, the upward trend in gold remains relevant. Corrections will be bought up as long as uncertainty surrounding trade policy, the banking sector, and the Fed's monetary policy persists. Resistance levels: 4269, 4316 Support levels: 4251, 4218 At the moment, a pre-breakout base is forming around 4269. If the structure remains intact and the price continues to attack resistance, the chances of a breakout and growth will be high. Otherwise, a close below 4251 could trigger a retest of 4218. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
16
ASTER Sell/Short Setup (1H)A structure has formed indicating potential reversal moves. We can enter a position at this point with the specified stop, targeting the levels marked on the chart. Touching the invalidation level will invalidate this setup. Let’s see what happens. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
Short
by behdark
1
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): SHORT to the support area 1.15419.The situation is quite interesting. I would not like to recommend selling, but judging by the waves, the price should update the minimum of 1.15419 and complete the wave "C" of higher order near the level of 1.15000. Then the triangle (ABCDE) will continue to develop. And as much as I don't want to, I will insist that the price will continue the downward movement at least to the support area of 1.15419. Fundamental context The dollar continues to be under pressure - markets are increasingly laying expectations of a soon Fed rate cut due to signs of a slowdown in the US economy. At the same time, the euro is receiving moderate support due to stability in the eurozone and investors' interest in alternative assets outside the dollar. In fact, this may lead to some sideways movement, which will be expressed in the triangle (ABCDE). Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Short
by Hellena_Trade
15
Gold 1H – Bullish Rebound After Strong Correction🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Trading Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader 📈 Market Context Gold is attempting to rebound near $4,320 after a sharp correction earlier this week, as traders weigh the recent pullback in U.S. Treasury yields and renewed expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve tone. Markets are now positioning ahead of key U.S. housing and manufacturing data, which could shape short-term sentiment for both the dollar and real yields. • Softer economic numbers may reinforce the case for policy easing in early 2026, supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal. • Conversely, stronger data could momentarily pressure XAUUSD, yet the broader uptrend remains intact amid central-bank accumulation and geopolitical tension. Expect a liquidity-driven environment, with price potentially sweeping lower before reclaiming bullish momentum. 🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Style) • Structure: Overall bias remains bullish following consecutive Breaks of Structure (BOS) and a confirmed Change of Character (ChoCH) indicating corrective retracement. • Discount Zone: The $4,270–$4,272 demand area sits within the discount zone of the recent range (swing low to 4454 high), ideal for re-accumulation. • Liquidity Sweep: Recent wicks near $4,300 suggest liquidity has been collected, potentially setting up for another bullish push. • Premium Zone: Upside liquidity clusters near $4,454–$4,452, aligning with a premium supply area where short-term selling may appear. 🔴 Sell Setup • Entry: 4454 – 4452 • Stop-Loss: 4463 • Take-Profit Targets: 4400 → 4330 🟢 Buy Setup • Entry: 4270 – 4272 • Stop-Loss: 4260 • Take-Profit Targets: 4340 → 4380 → 4450 + ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Wait for M15 BOS/ChoCH confirmation before triggering entries. • Avoid entries during high-volatility windows around U.S. data releases. • Secure partial profits near intermediate liquidity zones, trail stops after BOS confirmation. ✅ Summary Gold maintains a bullish re-accumulation structure following a healthy correction. A retest into the discount zone around $4,270 offers potential long entries targeting the premium zone near $4,450+. Only a decisive break below $4,260 would invalidate the intraday bullish scenario. FOLLOW RYAN_TITANTRADER for more SMC trading insights ⚡
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
27
Gold Extends Its 8-Week Winning Streak👋Hello everyone, what are your thoughts on OANDA:XAUUSD ? Over the past week, gold prices climbed close to the $4,400 mark before pulling back sharply and closing the week around $4,250, up $223 from the weekly open of $4,022 — nearly a 6% gain, marking the eighth consecutive week of growth. Despite the volatility, Main Street investors remain confident that the precious metal will continue to rise this week. Trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties have been the key drivers supporting gold’s rally. Meanwhile, the Fed’s rate cut and the U.S. government shutdown have strengthened the dollar while simultaneously providing support for gold prices. At the time of writing, gold is fluctuating around $4,255, showing little change since the start of the session. Overall, the bullish trend remains intact, and as long as the confluence zone holds, buying opportunities are still favored. What about you — what’s your outlook on XAUUSD? 💬Share your thoughts in the comments below, and let’s discuss! Good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kevinn_Nguyen
35
USDJPY – Yen Weakens as Japan Forms New Coalition👋Hello everyone, what are your thoughts on FX:USDJPY ? At the start of the new week, USDJPY is showing interesting movements following news that Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party have agreed to form a coalition government. This development paves the way for Sanae Takaichi to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister, sparking market expectations of increased fiscal spending and a more accommodative monetary policy. From a market perspective, these expectations tend to weaken the yen, as investors anticipate low interest rates to continue and ample liquidity support from the Bank of Japan. As a result, USDJPY is likely to maintain its upward momentum, with potential for further gains if the U.S. dollar continues to be supported by higher Treasury yields and solid U.S. economic data. What about you — do you think USDJPY will keep rising or start to fall? 💬Share your thoughts in the comments below! Good luck!
Long
by Kevinn_Nguyen
18
KIWI: Preapering To Complete Bearish Sequence? NZDUSD is in a very deep retracement, showing lower lows and lower swing highs from July, but if we look closely, there’s a lot of overlapping price action. In fact, over the last few weeks, it seems bears are losing some momentum, supported by RSI divergence, and we could even be forming an ending diagonal here in wave C of a potential three-wave drop from the July–summer highs. So despite this deep retracement, which is already more than 7%, there could still be an interesting rebound in the weeks ahead — ideally from around the 78.6% retracement of the April–July recovery. If we’re correct, we might already see some kind of rebound from a new intraday low this week. Grega
by ew-forecast
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 54.00.As I continued to watch oil I realized that the structure I built in the last forecast is still in place. I think we should expect a correction in wave “4” to the 59.3 area, then a continuation of the downward movement at least to the 54.00 support area. This will be the completion of the downward impulse. I do not exclude the probability of lengthening of wave “3” and in this case there will be no correction and the price will immediately reach the target. Fundamental context The oil market remains under pressure as supply continues to outpace demand, raising the risk of a surplus. Forecasts for 2025-2026 indicate higher production growth while consumption slows. Rising inventories and a shift in the futures curve into contango suggest growing storage levels and weaker near-term demand. Under these conditions, downside pressure persists, keeping the probability of a further decline high. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
6
Bearish CHoCH in Play – Gold Retracement Plan (XAU/USD)🧭 DAILY TRADING PLAN – GOLD (XAU/USD) Date: Oct 21, 2025 Main timeframe: M30 – H1 Strategy: SMC + CHoCH + Imbalance 1. Market Context Price formed a short-term bearish CHoCH after failing to hold above 4370 area. Current momentum shows liquidity sweep above 4378, followed by a shift in structure to the downside. We expect price to rebalance lower FVG zones before any new bullish leg. 2. Key Levels BUY Zone 1: 4349 – 4351 → Reaction zone after CHoCH BUY Zone 2: 4369 – 4371 → Mitigation of minor FVG BUY Zone 3: 4378 – 4380 → Extreme high liquidity zone SELL Zone: 4300 – 4298 → Demand-to-supply flip 3. Trading Plan BUY SCENARIO Entry: 4349 – 4351 Stop loss: 4343 Take profit 1: 4369 Take profit 2: 4378 Take profit 3 (runner): 4388 → If price respects 4349–4351 and forms bullish CHoCH, target upper FVGs. SELL SCENARIO Entry: 4378 – 4380 Stop loss: 4386 Take profit 1: 4350 Take profit 2: 4330 Take profit 3: 4300 → Short at premium zone after BOS confirmation. 4. Bias 🔻 Short-term bearish, expecting retracement before continuation toward 4300.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Anneliese_Engel
Why is gold rallying despite the Fed's silence? Gold prices resumed their upward trend on Monday, primarily benefiting from multiple positive factors. The market generally expects the Fed to maintain a wait-and-see stance ahead of its interest rate meeting, with upcoming inflation data providing a key indicator. Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding the US government's fiscal impasse has created an additional safe-haven premium for gold. Continued tensions in the Middle East have highlighted gold's hedging potential. Long-term, stable gold purchases by global central banks and ETF holdings provide solid support for gold prices, effectively offsetting short-term volatility. Furthermore, the performance of traditional safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, along with the US dollar, is also impacting gold's appeal. In the 4-hour analysis, gold fluctuated below the key 4380 level, but strongly broke through this resistance level driven by safe-haven buying, indicating a resurgence of bullish momentum. This breakthrough confirms a short-term strong pattern, with the 4300 level being a key support level for the day. Operationally, the approach should shift to a bullish trend, prioritizing opportunities to enter the market on pullbacks to lower levels. This rapid rally and subsequent recovery of lost ground further confirms the strength of the current bullish momentum. Given the volatility, we recommend remaining patient and waiting for a price correction before entering long positions, with a well-placed stop-loss. Gold Recommendation: Go long on a pullback to the 4318-4313 range, targeting 4380-4400!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PalmerRobert6064