Wave Analysis
GOLD - Pullback before growth after Asian momentum FX:XAUUSD is correcting after hitting a historic high ($4,900), due to the de-escalation of tensions between the US and the EU. Profit-taking is observed, but the trend remains bullish...
Fundamental background:
- Trump has cooled down: tariffs are temporarily suspended, as is the forceful seizure of Greenland. Negotiations are likely to continue. The market reacted quite aggressively to yesterday's “swings” led by Trump.
Today, data on PCE inflation and US GDP for the third quarter will be released, which may provide new momentum.
Further dynamics will depend on inflation data: weak indicators may renew interest in defensive assets, while strong ones may increase pressure.
Resistance levels: 4838, 4850, 4880
Support levels: 4813, 4800, 4777
Technically, after the Asian momentum, gold may form a correction of 50% of the total movement. I consider the 4813-4800 area (liquidity area) to be a zone of interest. And as zones of interest at the top, I consider the 4850 area — the liquidity pool.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Liquidity Above 5,000 Tested — Gold Sets Up Smart Money RotationOANDA:XAUUSD | Daily Smart Money Plan – H1
Gold continues to trade in a mature bullish structure after a strong multi-day expansion, with price now pressing into psychological and technical premium territory above 5,000.
Today’s volatility is being amplified by a hot macro driver: renewed speculation around the future Fed leadership and its potential impact on rate expectations, keeping both USD sensitivity and safe-haven flows in focus.
However, from a Smart Money perspective, H1 price action shows clear signs of deceleration, not acceleration. Instead of clean continuation, Gold is reacting near external liquidity highs — a typical environment for distribution, rebalancing, and engineered pullbacks, rather than emotional breakout chasing.
Market Structure & Liquidity Context
Higher-timeframe trend remains bullish, supported by a rising structure and prior BOS.
Recent CHoCH confirms a shift from impulsive expansion into controlled rotation.
Price has tapped external buy-side liquidity near the highs, signaling potential short-term exhaustion.
FVG and Fibonacci discount levels below price define the most probable draw on liquidity.
Market behavior suggests premium delivery → discount mitigation, not straight-line continuation.
➡ Headlines may create volatility, but liquidity dictates direction.
Key Trading Scenarios
🔴 Sell Reaction at Premium (Primary Scenario)
5010 – 5012 | SL: 5020
Confluence:
External buy-side liquidity
Psychological round number
Overextended premium pricing
Weak acceptance or rejection here favors a corrective rotation toward value.
🟢 Buy Reaction at Discount (Scenario A)
Fibo 0.236 | 4917 – 4915 | SL: 4910
Shallow retracement within bullish structure
Ideal zone for continuation if momentum resets cleanly.
🟢 Buy Reaction at Deep Discount (Scenario B)
Fibo 0.786 | 4800 – 4798 | SL: 4790
Deeper liquidity sweep
Strong Smart Money re-entry zone if premium fully unwinds.
Invalidation
Sustained H1 acceptance and hold above 5020 invalidates the corrective bias and opens continuation toward higher expansion targets.
Expectation & Bias
This is not a breakout-chasing environment.
Liquidity comes before direction
Acceptance confirms continuation
Rejection favors rotation
Execution > prediction
💬 Will Gold accept value above 5,000 after the Fed narrative — or rotate back to discount first?
XAUUSD – H2 Technical Outlook| LanaXAUUSD – H2 Technical Outlook: Trendline Continuation After a Healthy Pullback | Lana✨
Gold remains in a strong bullish structure on the H2 timeframe. The recent push higher looks like an impulsive expansion, and the current retracement is best read as a controlled pullback to rebuild liquidity, not a bearish reversal.
As long as price respects the rising structure, Lana’s bias stays bullish (buy the dip).
📈 Market Structure & Trend Context
The broader trend is still bullish, with momentum staying inside an ascending channel.
Price has already shown a clear “run” into buyside liquidity during the mid-range consolidation, followed by a continuation leg.
The current pullback is occurring from the highs and is pulling back into structure — a classic setup for re-accumulation before continuation.
🔍 Key Technical Zones (from the chart)
Primary pullback support: the ~4800 structural line
This is the cleanest “line in the sand” for the bullish thesis on the chart.
Re-entry / reaction zone: the purple demand block near the recent highs (retest zone)
This is where price may rebalance before attempting the next breakout.
Higher-timeframe support levels below:
4580.180
4508.503
4409.421
4333.528
These are deeper supports if the market ever shifts into a larger correction.
🎯 Trading Plan (H2 Structure-Based)
✅ Primary Scenario: Buy the Retest Zone (higher probability continuation)
Buy Entry: 4882 – 4888 (retest into the purple demand zone)
SL: 4872 – 4878 (8–10 points below entry)
TP Targets (scaled exits):
TP1: 4955 (current swing area / first rebound objective)
TP2: 5000 (psychological milestone + channel pressure point)
TP3: 5035 – 5050 (continuation extension inside the channel)
TP4: 5075 – 5100 (upper channel projection / breakout follow-through)
✅ Alternative Scenario: Deeper Pullback Into Structure (value buy)
If price loses the retest zone and continues lower:
Buy Entry: 4802 – 4810 (structural support line)
SL: 4792 – 4800 (8–10 points below entry)
TP Targets:
TP1: 4880 – 4890
TP2: 4955
TP3: 5000
TP4: 5035 – 5050
🌍 Macro Context (Brief)
Headlines around Trump mentioning a potential China visit in April and China’s response emphasizing stable relations can shift risk sentiment short-term.
If markets interpret it as easing tensions, gold may see profit-taking pullbacks. If uncertainty remains, gold can stay supported as a hedge. Either way, expect headline-driven volatility, which makes structured pullback entries more favorable than chasing highs.
✨ Lana’s Approach
Lana is not chasing the top. The focus is on buying pullbacks into structure, letting price confirm, and scaling out into targets as the trend continues.
Gold at $5k? RSI divergence vs. breakout – which comes first?Gold is just $30 away from the historic $5,000 level, and silver is approaching $100 for the first time ever. But before you chase the breakout, we need to talk about the RSI divergence flashing on multiple timeframes and what it means for the next move.
In this video, we analyse the technical setup as gold approaches the most critical resistance level of this bull run. We explain why the "no safe haven" thesis—with the dollar collapsing on Greenland tensions and the yen crashing past 158 after the BOJ decision—is flooding capital into precious metals. But we also map out the warning signs that suggest $5K could trigger heavy profit-taking.
Key topics :
Measured move complete : The corrective leg projects to 4,930, which we just hit. Similarly, the Elliott Wave net distance (Waves 1-4) also targets the same level—two confluences at resistance.
Accelerated channel : Gold is trading in a parabolic, accelerated channel. As long as we hold 4,680 (61.8% Fib on daily) and 4,770 (61.8% Fib on 4H), the bias remains bullish.
RSI divergence : Weekly, daily, and 4-hour charts all show bearish divergence. Price is making new highs, but momentum is not confirming—classic topping behaviour.
The $5K test : Next upside targets are 5,012, 5,100, and 5,200. But $5K might be where sell orders are stacked. A failure here could trigger a sharp correction to 4,770-4,800.
Risky counter-trend Play : For the brave, a short at $5K with a stop at $5,050 and a target at $4,770 (61.8% support). But remember: "The trend is your friend."
Are you buying the dip or fading the $5K level? Let us know in the comments!
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DASHUSDT | Don't FOMO buy now...Here is where you enterHello traders,
DASH has went ape mode the last couple of days reaching 70% in a single day peeking at $96.85. Buying here would not be very smart. Price is already overextended.
I can see that price has already formed a complete 5 impulsive waves and now is about to do an ABC correction.
My zone of interest to re-buy again would be between $53-$63
DASH goal's in this cycles will surpass $300 with ease.
Good Luck!
Eli Lilly Target $1,258-1,316 in final waveStock price is in a bullish impulse
Last wave 5 is in progress
Target is calculated as 50-61.8% of waves 1-3 move added to the valley of wave 4
It is highlighted with the blue box in $1,258-1,316 area
It perfectly aligns with the trend channel resistance
Invalidation is below the bottom of wave 4 < $1,013
It is expected to see the Bearish Divergence in wave 5
INTC: Wave 5 Truncated at 54.32– Correction Wave Targets 38-42Published: Jan 23, 2026 | Bearish Reversal Confirmed
INTC's rally peaked at 54.32 (Jan 22 high) after Q4 earnings beat, but conservative Q1 guidance triggered profit-taking and a -12% post-market plunge. The break below 44.02 invalidates the prior Wave 5 impulse count, confirming truncation and shifting to a corrective phase (ABC or expanded flat).
Primary Count (Bearish Correction):
Wave 5 truncated at 54.32; structure fails.
Current: Wave (A) or Wave 4 deep correction underway.
Targets: 38-42 (50-61.8% retracement, 1-3 months); extension risk to 35-36 if momentum weakens.
Support: 44 (short-term), 40 (secondary), 38 (major).
Alternative Count (Red Line – Deeper Risk):
If 44.02 break holds: Consolidates into larger Wave 3 completion at 54.32.
Wave 4 target: 35-38 (61.8% retrace).
Subsequent Wave 5 target: 58-65 (Q3-Q4 2026).
Trade Plan:
Bearish bias. Avoid longs until 38-42 oversold bounce.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
Positional TradingIntroduction to Positional Trading
Positional trading is a trading style where positions are held for an extended period—ranging from a few weeks to several months—to benefit from medium- to long-term price movements. Unlike intraday trading, which focuses on short-term price fluctuations within a single trading session, positional trading is designed for traders who want to participate in larger market trends without the need to monitor markets constantly. This approach is especially popular among working professionals and investors who prefer a balance between active trading and long-term investing.
At its core, positional trading combines elements of both technical and fundamental analysis. Traders aim to identify strong trends, enter at favorable price levels, and hold their positions patiently until the trend shows signs of exhaustion or reversal.
Key Characteristics of Positional Trading
One of the defining features of positional trading is the holding period. Positions are not closed quickly; instead, traders allow enough time for the underlying trend to fully develop. This reduces the impact of daily market noise and minor price fluctuations.
Another important characteristic is relatively lower trading frequency. Since trades are fewer, transaction costs such as brokerage fees and taxes are generally lower compared to intraday or high-frequency trading. This makes positional trading more cost-efficient over time.
Risk management is also central to positional trading. Because positions are held overnight and across market events, traders must account for gap-ups and gap-downs. Wider stop-loss levels are typically used, but position sizing is adjusted to keep overall risk under control.
Positional Trading vs Other Trading Styles
Positional trading sits between swing trading and long-term investing. Swing traders usually hold positions for a few days to a couple of weeks, focusing on short-term momentum. Long-term investors, on the other hand, may hold assets for years based primarily on fundamentals.
Positional traders bridge this gap by using technical setups to enter trades while aligning with broader fundamental or macroeconomic trends. This hybrid nature allows traders to capture meaningful price moves without committing capital for very long durations.
Role of Technical Analysis in Positional Trading
Technical analysis plays a crucial role in positional trading. Traders use higher time-frame charts such as daily, weekly, and sometimes monthly charts to identify trends and key levels. Commonly used tools include moving averages, trendlines, support and resistance levels, and chart patterns like triangles, flags, and head-and-shoulders formations.
Indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Average Directional Index (ADX) help traders assess momentum and trend strength. In positional trading, indicators are used more for confirmation than for frequent entry and exit signals.
Importance of Fundamental Analysis
While technicals help with timing, fundamental analysis provides conviction. Positional traders often analyze company earnings, growth prospects, sector performance, and macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and government policies.
For example, a trader may take a positional long trade in a stock showing strong technical breakout while also benefiting from improving earnings visibility or sector-wide tailwinds. This alignment between fundamentals and technicals increases the probability of trade success.
Risk Management and Position Sizing
Risk management is one of the most critical aspects of positional trading. Since stop-losses are generally wider, traders must reduce position size to maintain a fixed percentage risk per trade. A common approach is to risk only 1–2% of total trading capital on a single position.
Trailing stop-losses are frequently used to lock in profits as the trend progresses. This allows traders to stay in winning trades longer while protecting accumulated gains. Discipline in following stop-loss rules is essential, as emotional decisions can quickly erode profits.
Psychological Aspects of Positional Trading
Positional trading requires patience and emotional stability. Traders must be comfortable with short-term drawdowns and periods when the market moves sideways. The ability to stick to a trading plan without reacting impulsively to daily price fluctuations is a key success factor.
Because trades last longer, positional traders are also exposed to news events and market sentiment shifts. Managing fear during temporary corrections and avoiding greed when prices move favorably are constant psychological challenges.
Advantages of Positional Trading
One major advantage of positional trading is time efficiency. Traders do not need to watch the market continuously, making it suitable for those with full-time jobs. The focus on larger trends also offers the potential for higher reward-to-risk ratios compared to short-term trading.
Additionally, positional trading reduces stress caused by rapid decision-making. By relying on higher time frames and well-defined setups, traders can approach the market in a calmer and more structured manner.
Limitations and Risks
Despite its advantages, positional trading is not without risks. Overnight positions expose traders to unexpected news, geopolitical events, and earnings surprises. Market gaps can lead to losses beyond predefined stop-loss levels.
Another limitation is capital lock-in. Since trades remain open for weeks or months, capital cannot be easily redeployed into other opportunities. This requires careful planning and portfolio diversification.
Conclusion
Positional trading is a disciplined and strategic approach aimed at capturing substantial market trends over medium- to long-term horizons. By combining technical analysis for precise entries and exits with fundamental insights for broader context, traders can improve their probability of success. Effective risk management, emotional control, and patience are essential pillars of this trading style.
For traders seeking a balanced method that avoids the intensity of intraday trading while remaining more active than long-term investing, positional trading offers a practical and rewarding path—provided it is executed with consistency, discipline, and a well-defined trading plan.
Gold will spike UPUP FX_IDC:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD BIST:XAUUSD1! FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Gold already break !
BUY now
US–China Trade War: Economic, Market, and Geopolitical ImpactsOrigins and Core Issues of the Trade War
The US–China trade war was primarily driven by concerns in the United States regarding persistent trade deficits, alleged unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, and state subsidies to Chinese firms. China, on the other hand, viewed US actions as attempts to contain its economic rise and technological ambitions. As tariffs escalated on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods, trade relations deteriorated, and trust between the two largest economies weakened.
Unlike traditional trade disputes focused purely on tariffs, this conflict also targeted strategic sectors such as semiconductors, telecommunications, artificial intelligence, and clean energy. This broadened scope transformed the trade war into a long-term structural rivalry rather than a temporary negotiation phase.
Impact on Global Trade and Supply Chains
One of the most profound effects of the US–China trade war has been the restructuring of global supply chains. Companies heavily dependent on China for manufacturing began diversifying production to other regions such as Vietnam, India, Mexico, and Southeast Asia to reduce tariff exposure and geopolitical risk. This phenomenon, often described as “China+1” or “friend-shoring,” increased costs in the short term but improved resilience over time.
Global trade volumes experienced volatility as tariffs disrupted established trade flows. Intermediate goods became more expensive, affecting manufacturers worldwide. While some countries benefited by attracting new investments, the fragmentation of supply chains reduced overall efficiency and increased inflationary pressures across multiple economies.
Effects on Economic Growth and Inflation
Both the US and China faced economic consequences from the trade war. Higher tariffs raised input costs for businesses and consumer prices for households. In the United States, tariffs functioned as an indirect tax on consumers, contributing to inflationary pressures. In China, export-oriented industries faced reduced demand, affecting manufacturing output and employment in certain sectors.
Globally, the trade war weighed on economic growth by dampening business confidence and investment. Uncertainty over future trade rules caused firms to delay capital expenditure. International organizations repeatedly revised global growth forecasts downward during periods of heightened trade tensions, highlighting the broader macroeconomic impact.
Financial Market and Currency Impacts
Financial markets reacted sharply to trade war developments, with equity markets experiencing increased volatility around tariff announcements and negotiations. Sectors exposed to global trade—such as technology, automobiles, and industrials—were particularly sensitive. Investors frequently shifted toward defensive assets like government bonds and gold during escalation phases.
Currency markets were also affected. The Chinese yuan experienced periods of depreciation, partly offsetting the impact of US tariffs on Chinese exports. This led to accusations of currency manipulation and added another layer of tension to the conflict. Emerging market currencies, especially those linked to global trade, experienced spillover effects due to shifting capital flows and risk sentiment.
Technology Decoupling and Strategic Competition
Perhaps the most lasting impact of the US–China trade war is the acceleration of technological decoupling. Restrictions on technology exports, semiconductor equipment, and advanced computing capabilities limited China’s access to critical inputs. In response, China intensified efforts to achieve technological self-sufficiency through domestic innovation and state support.
This decoupling has global implications. Multinational technology firms face fragmented markets with different standards, regulations, and ecosystems. Innovation costs increase as companies duplicate supply chains and research efforts. Over time, the world risks splitting into competing technological blocs, reducing collaboration and slowing global innovation.
Impact on Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
Emerging markets experienced mixed outcomes from the trade war. Some countries benefited from trade diversion and increased foreign direct investment as firms sought alternatives to China. India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Mexico emerged as notable beneficiaries in manufacturing and exports.
However, many developing economies suffered from reduced global trade growth and heightened financial volatility. Countries dependent on commodity exports to China or the US faced demand fluctuations. Additionally, rising protectionism globally encouraged other nations to adopt similar measures, weakening the multilateral trading system that many developing countries rely on.
Geopolitical and Institutional Implications
The US–China trade war weakened confidence in the global trade architecture, particularly the World Trade Organization (WTO). Unilateral tariffs and retaliatory actions undermined dispute-resolution mechanisms and encouraged bilateral or regional trade arrangements instead of multilateral cooperation.
Geopolitically, trade policy became a tool of strategic influence. Allies and partners were often pressured to align with one side, complicating international relations. Economic security, national resilience, and supply-chain sovereignty became central themes in policymaking, blurring the line between economics and geopolitics.
Long-Term Structural Changes
In the long run, the US–China trade war is reshaping globalization itself. Rather than complete deglobalization, the world is moving toward a more fragmented and regionalized form of globalization. Efficiency is increasingly balanced against resilience and national security considerations.
Corporations now incorporate geopolitical risk into strategic planning alongside traditional financial metrics. Governments are more willing to intervene in markets to protect strategic industries. These shifts suggest that the trade war’s legacy will persist even if tariffs are reduced or agreements are reached.
Conclusion
The US–China trade war is not merely a dispute over tariffs but a defining feature of a broader economic and strategic rivalry. Its impacts span global trade, supply chains, inflation, financial markets, technology development, and geopolitics. While some economies and sectors have found opportunities amid the disruption, the overall cost has been higher uncertainty, reduced efficiency, and slower global growth. As the world adapts to this new reality, the challenge lies in managing competition without undermining global economic stability and cooperation.
Role of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Global Trade1. Providing a Rules-Based Trading System
At the heart of the WTO’s role is the creation and enforcement of a rules-based global trading system. The WTO agreements form the legal foundation of international trade, covering areas such as trade in goods, services, agriculture, subsidies, anti-dumping measures, and intellectual property rights. These rules aim to reduce uncertainty by ensuring that trade policies are transparent and predictable. For businesses and investors, this predictability lowers risk and encourages cross-border investment and long-term planning.
The principles of non-discrimination, embodied in the Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) and National Treatment rules, are core to this system. MFN ensures that any trade advantage granted to one country is extended to all WTO members, while National Treatment requires imported goods and services to be treated no less favorably than domestic ones once they enter the market. Together, these principles help prevent arbitrary trade barriers and discriminatory practices.
2. Facilitating Trade Liberalization
Another crucial role of the WTO is to promote trade liberalization through multilateral negotiations, commonly known as trade rounds. These negotiations focus on reducing tariffs, quotas, and other barriers to trade. Historical rounds, such as the Uruguay Round, significantly expanded the scope of global trade rules by including services and intellectual property for the first time.
Although recent negotiations, particularly under the Doha Development Agenda, have faced challenges due to differing national interests, the WTO continues to serve as the primary forum for trade discussions. Even incremental progress in areas like trade facilitation, fisheries subsidies, and e-commerce demonstrates the WTO’s ongoing relevance in adapting to modern trade realities.
3. Dispute Settlement Mechanism
One of the WTO’s most impactful functions is its dispute settlement mechanism (DSM). This system allows member countries to resolve trade disputes in a structured, legal, and rules-based manner rather than through unilateral action or trade wars. When a member believes another has violated WTO rules, it can bring a case before the WTO’s dispute panels.
The dispute settlement process enhances trust in the global trading system by ensuring that even smaller or developing countries have a platform to challenge unfair practices by larger economies. By providing binding rulings and encouraging compliance, the WTO helps maintain stability and discipline in international trade relations, reducing the likelihood of prolonged trade conflicts.
4. Promoting Transparency and Monitoring Trade Policies
The WTO plays an essential monitoring role by reviewing the trade policies of its members through the Trade Policy Review Mechanism (TPRM). These reviews enhance transparency by examining national trade policies, regulations, and practices at regular intervals. Transparency helps identify potentially trade-distorting measures and encourages members to align their policies with WTO rules.
In addition, the WTO collects, analyzes, and disseminates trade data and economic research. Its reports on global trade trends, trade policy developments, and economic outlooks provide valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and researchers. This information-sharing function strengthens informed decision-making at both national and international levels.
5. Supporting Developing and Least-Developed Countries
A significant aspect of the WTO’s role is addressing the needs of developing and least-developed countries (LDCs). Through provisions known as Special and Differential Treatment (SDT), the WTO allows these countries longer timeframes to implement agreements, greater flexibility in policy measures, and technical assistance to build trade capacity.
The WTO also works closely with other international organizations to support capacity-building initiatives, helping developing countries integrate more effectively into the global trading system. By enabling access to global markets, the WTO contributes to economic growth, employment generation, and poverty reduction in these economies.
6. Adapting to New Global Trade Challenges
Global trade has evolved rapidly with the rise of digital trade, global value chains, climate-related trade measures, and geopolitical tensions. The WTO’s role increasingly involves addressing these emerging challenges. Issues such as e-commerce rules, digital services taxation, environmental sustainability, and supply chain resilience are now part of the global trade agenda.
While consensus-building among diverse members can be slow, the WTO provides a critical platform for dialogue and cooperation on these complex issues. Its ability to adapt rules and frameworks to new economic realities will determine its continued effectiveness in the future.
7. Preventing Protectionism and Trade Fragmentation
During periods of economic uncertainty—such as financial crises, pandemics, or geopolitical conflicts—the WTO acts as a stabilizing force against excessive protectionism. By encouraging adherence to agreed rules and promoting cooperation, the WTO helps prevent the fragmentation of global trade into competing blocs. This stability is vital for maintaining global economic growth and avoiding retaliatory trade measures that can harm all parties involved.
Conclusion
The World Trade Organization plays a foundational role in the global trading system by establishing rules, facilitating negotiations, resolving disputes, promoting transparency, and supporting inclusive development. Despite facing challenges such as stalled negotiations and institutional reforms, the WTO remains indispensable for managing international trade relations in a complex and interconnected world. Its continued relevance depends on its ability to modernize rules, strengthen dispute resolution, and balance the diverse interests of its members. Ultimately, the WTO’s role in global trade is not only economic but also strategic—fostering cooperation, stability, and shared prosperity across nations.
$SPY & $SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Friday Jan 23, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX — Market-Moving Headlines Friday Jan 23, 2026
🌍 Market-Moving Themes
💻 Intel Supply Shock
Intel beats earnings but drops after hours as severe chip supply constraints cap near-term revenue
🔁 Semiconductor Share Tension
Chip demand remains strong while capacity limits raise questions around order allocation
🏦 FinTech Consolidation Signal
Capital One announces Brex acquisition as credit trends and dealmaking collide
🏥 MedTech Spend Rebound
Hospital procedure growth resurfaces following strong Intuitive Surgical results
📊 Labor Market Resilience
Jobless claims remain low, reinforcing soft-landing expectations into month-end
📊 Key U.S. Economic Data Friday Jan 23 ET
9:45 AM
- S and P Flash U.S. Services PMI Jan: 53.0
- S and P Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI Jan: 52.1
10:00 AM
- Consumer Sentiment final Jan: 54.0
⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #Macro #PMI #Earnings #Semiconductors #Banks #Healthcare #Markets #Stocks #Options
GOLD Wave AnalysisGOLD is not too far off (~$240) from the 4.618 extension of wave (I). After some time this evening counting waves on GOLD, I have gather an idea of what can be expected when it top's. Will it be a top followed by years of bear market? Or, could we expect an abc followed by higher highs?
I've noticed that GOLD favors 3rd wave extensions on all degrees; from the minor to the prime.
And it appears that GOLD may be printing its extended (and highly favored) primary 3rd wave up according to my wave analysis. So, it's possible that a correction will follow rather than years of bear market.
If GOLD only corrects and that correction resolves to the primary wave (IV) bottom, we can't leave out the possibility of a truncated 5th (the 5th primary wave up fails to exceed the 3rd primary wave top). So, this TA doesn't suggest higher highs after the potential correction, but it does indicated the possibility that GOLD has not printed its 4th primary wave bottom.
This Publish Is Intended For Educational Purposes Only
$MERLUSDT QUICK ANALYSIS (1H)OKX:MERLUSDT is experiencing aggressive sell-side pressure, confirmed by both price structure breakdown and a 4.7× abnormal volume spike.
Price is down –20.78% in past 24 hours, indicating panic-driven exits rather than healthy consolidation.
By aligning with the dominant trend traders can capitalize on momentum-driven downside continuation.
This setup offers clear invalidation, defined risk, and downside targets aligned with high-volume distribution zones.
Confluence Highlights
Market Structure: Lower highs and lower lows remain intact on the 1H timeframe.
Supply Zone Rejection: Willing Strong rejection from $0.1831 – $0.1915, a former support flipped into resistance.
Volume Confirmation:
Current Volume: $5.97M
Average Volume: $1.26M
4.7× bearish volume spike, confirming institutional selling.
Momentum: Red impulse candles show sellers in control, not absorption.
Trade Setup
Direction: SHORT
Entry Zone: ~$0.1870
Stop Loss: $0.1995 (above supply & structure invalidation)
Target 1: $0.1645 (minor demand)
Target 2: $0.1370 (higher-timeframe demand)
Until price reclaims and holds above the selling zone with declining sell volume, any bounce remains a sell-the-rally opportunity.
This is a high-volume bearish continuation setup.
TEM - We are back at it, Again !!TEM - Used to love this stock at 40's. Had a very good trade until it was momentum name.
And.... It turned out to be a choppy choppy stock to hold.
Again, it's looking good for a long trade.
With AI theme's surge and Revenue growth, this can see 100 again soon.
Technical -
- Found support over the IPO VWAP
- All of the VWAPs are converging here
- Sitting right over the Value Area POC
- Bouncing on the trend line
Target 1 - 80
Target 2 - 100
Stop Loss - 50, Have a wide stop , just in case. This is deep value area indeed.
ETH at Major Support After Distribution BreakdownOn the H1 chart, Ethereum has clearly completed a distribution → markdown cycle after failing at the upper boundary of the accumulation range around 3,330–3,380. The sharp bearish impulse that followed confirms that the prior sideways structure was not continuation, but distribution. Once price broke below 3,286, selling pressure accelerated and ETH transitioned into a clean bearish trend, with the EMA rolling over and acting as consistent dynamic resistance.
After the initial breakdown, price paused briefly inside the sideway zone near 3,180–3,230, but this consolidation failed to attract meaningful demand. The loss of 3,180 acted as confirmation of trend continuation, leading to another impulsive leg down that drove price directly into the higher-timeframe support range around 2,900–2,950. The speed and structure of this move strongly suggest liquidation-driven selling rather than healthy pullbacks.
At current levels, ETH is reacting off major support, and the slowdown in downside momentum indicates sell-side exhaustion. This makes a technical rebound highly plausible, especially after such an extended impulsive decline. Structurally, a corrective bounce toward 3,020–3,050 is reasonable, with a deeper retracement potentially targeting the prior breakdown area around 3,150–3,180, which now represents the most important resistance cluster.
However, it is critical to frame this move correctly: any upside from here remains corrective unless proven otherwise. As long as price stays below 3,180–3,230, ETH remains in a bearish short-term structure. Only a sustained reclaim and acceptance back inside the former sideways zone would invalidate the distribution thesis and signal a potential trend shift.
In summary, Ethereum is currently in a relief-rally phase after a completed markdown, reacting at a strong support range. A bounce is technically justified, but until former support is reclaimed, this should be treated as a sell-the-rally environment, not a confirmed bullish reversal.
Silver (XAGUSD) Elliott Wave: Strong Impulsive Rally Unfolding Silver (XAGUSD) continues to demonstrate a powerful impulsive rally, advancing steadily toward new all-time highs. The short-term cycle that began from the January 15, 2026 low is unfolding as a clear five-wave rally. From that date, wave (i) concluded at $93.03, followed by a corrective pullback in wave (ii) that ended at $86.83. Momentum then carried the market higher, with wave (iii) reaching $94.12 before another modest retracement in wave (iv) down to $92.56. The final leg higher, wave (v), extended to $95.86, thereby completing wave ((i)) of a higher degree structure.
After this initial advance, silver entered a corrective phase in wave ((ii)), forming a zigzag pattern. From the peak of wave ((i)), wave (a) declined to $93.09, while wave (b) rallied back to $95.56. The market then resumed its downward move in wave (c), reaching $90.29 and completing wave ((ii)) at the higher degree. With this correction finished, silver has resumed its upward trajectory in wave ((iii)), signaling renewed strength in the impulsive sequence.
The potential upside target for wave ((iii)) is projected using the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((i)). This range lies between $99.75 and $105.6, offering a significant zone of interest for traders and investors. In the near term, as long as the pivot at $86.4 remains intact, dips are expected to attract buyers. Market participants should anticipate renewed demand in sequences of three, seven, or eleven swings, reinforcing the bullish outlook and supporting further upside momentum.
AMD - Sell (Be careful for Bulls) - Target 160-200
I like analyzing charts by looking at its historical behaviors. If you zoom out big picture of AMD chart, you will see how AMD chart pattern behave like this: an impulsively strong big move up breakout, followed by either a period of big or small sideway down (a bull flag). The big bull flag can typically last for a year vs the small bull flags last for a few months.
Given this behavior, I think today (similarly to Dec 28 2021 or July 10 2024) was a good day to take profits for long term or swing traders/investors and wait to load it lower at somewhere 160-200 (probably last half of 2026). Support levels accordingly at 200, 180 and 160.
WULF | DailyNASDAQ:WULF — Bullish Alternate Scenario📈
Quantum Model Projection
WULF appears to be concluding its consolidation phase since Oct. 28, with a Triangle in Intermediate Wave (4) now fully mature.
Minor Wave E is currently supported by Q-Structure λ (Sup) along the divergent zone.
Provided this structure holds, the Intermediate Wave (5) extension could target ➤ $209 , representing a ~1900% advance , aligning with the upside trajectory of Primary Wave ⓷.
🔖 Notably, all projected Intermediate-degree extensions across the mining sector align with my broader bullish outlook on BTC , specifically Intermediate Wave (3) of the projected Primary Wave ⓹, unfolding within the impulsive Wave III trend of BTC’s second Cycle.
