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Wyckoffdistribution

Long Term Wyckoff Distribution In-PlayAs the title states, we have a Wyckoff distribution method/pattern in play here on the chart. So far the set up and pattern has been pretty on-point if you take a look and analyze Wyckoff Methods from www.wyckoffanalytics.com . I don't have a ton of additional analysis to add here. I am only analyzing the chart and indicators I have. However, I'd love to hear some additional feedback for contrasting opinions or agreeing opinions for some confluence. Have a great day TV gang and I hope you have a great December.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ExtraGuacAM
Is DAVE a Bull Trap? A Wyckoff Distribution take DAVE is flashing elements of a Wyckoff Distribution and could be setting up for a pullback soon. The market moves in cycles: buy low, uptrend, sell high, downtrend, repeat. The sell high part is what we are interested in for today's chart. Wyckoff theorized that you could identify when participants are finally starting to sell their shares by analyzing price and volume. The process is roughly outlined via his trading schematics. *Note: The indicator on the chart highlights bullish and bearish candles that have above average volume for easy identification. Phase A is all about stopping the uptrend. DAVE had a monster run from its previous earnings and we see our first evidence of profit taking at the PS. The buying climax (BC) is met with a large red sell candle with above average volume. Phase B is about shedding shares. Note the wide candle spreads and large selling volume after the UT. Now that a range has been identified, institutions will use it to manipulate price and exit their positions. Note that the large volume days only appear at the top or bottom of the range. Phase C is optional but I believe we are currently in it. Phase C is a test to see if there are any more buyers out there before they enter the downtrending phase. Institutions will break price above the trading range to make it seem as if the trend will continue to the upside when, in reality, they are loading up the short trade. I have observed that this most recent earnings report has caused significant volatility. I am looking for institutions to try to send price higher. I think 180-190 would be ideal. That price is just around the initial UT high, and many traders are watching for new highs. The downside target would be about $110. Please let me know your thoughts.
NASDAQ:DAVEShort
by Decam9
BTC — Is This the End of Bitcoin’s Bull Market?First of all, I’ve been quite busy the past few weeks working on some exciting projects and developing new indicators that’s why I haven’t posted much here lately. But now I’m back with a fresh Bitcoin analysis, and there’s a lot to unpack. Macro Context BTC’s recent structure has played out exactly like a classic Wyckoff Distribution schematic.
Back in mid-July (14th July 2025), we printed a Buying Climax (BC), followed by an Upthrust (UT) → SFP / liquidity grab. Later, price formed a UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) → the final failed breakout, confirming buyer exhaustion and triggering the sharp sell-off event that followed. After that sell-off, BTC retested the monthly resistance level at $115,764 twice: The first attempt resulted in a clean rejection. The second led to SFP of the high, confirming a bull trap and setting the tone for further downside. The monthly resistance turned out to be the most ideal short entry, offering a near-perfect risk-to-reward setup after the clear rejection. The charts really tell the whole story, BTC has followed the technical structure perfectly. Current Structure & Key Levels Today, we tapped the $100K psychological level, aligning with the $2 trillion market cap, that produced an initial bounce.
The question now: is this the start of a meaningful bounce, or just a relief rally before further downside? Looking at the wave structure, we are most likely in a Wave 3 (iii) → meaning more downside pressure remains probable. BTCUSD (INDEX): Key Low: $98,200 — Sell-Side Liquidity 0.618 Fib retracement: ~$94,254 — ideal long entry zone Trend-based Fib Extension (1.0): ~$93,728 Yearly Open: $93,576 The Volume Profile shows a high-volume node between $98K–$94K, with the POC at $96.4K, perfectly aligning with the support trendline and key low. This gives us a high-probability long zone between $98.2K and $93.5K, an area where multiple technical factors align: Key low liquidity Fib confluence (0.618 FR & 1.0 TBFE) Yearly open Volume cluster (POC) Rising trendline support Pattern Confluence After the rejection at the monthly resistance ($115,764), a clear Head & Shoulders pattern also formed → another strong bearish confluence.
The neckline was broken cleanly, confirming the expectation for further downside, which is now playing out. Psychological & Technical Zones At the moment, $100K remains a psychological key support and the market is reacting accordingly.
Now it’s time to pay close attention as we approach critical levels, especially the long opportunity zone (98.2K–93.5K). 🟢 Ideal trade plan: Long Entry Zone: $98.2K → $93.5K Take Profit 1: $100K Take Profit 2: $104K Stop Loss: below the Yearly Open ($93.5K) Summary Structure: Wyckoff Distribution → Markdown Phase Pattern: Head & Shoulders confirmed Bias: Bearish, but approaching high-value long zone Watch for: SFP of $98.2K → potential reversal trigger Main invalidation: Below Yearly Open ($93.5K) BTC continues to respect the technicals beautifully.
Stay patient! The next high-probability long setup is forming right in front of us. 🔍 Indicators used DriftLine — Pivot Open Zones → For identifying key yearly/monthly/weekly/daily opens that act as major S/R reference points LuxAlgo — Liquidity Sentiment Profile (Auto-Anchored) ➡️ Available for free. You can find it on my profile under “Scripts” and apply it directly to your charts for extra confluence when planning your trades. _________________________________ 💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment!
Long
by SiDec
9
Wyckoff Distribution - Cycle Top Is In?This idea is sharing the potential for the top being in for ETH and lower timeframe starting the final phase of Wyckoff Distribution. 🔍 Pattern Identification Phase A–E of a Wyckoff distribution. Buying Climax (BC) → Automatic Reaction (AR) → Upthrust (UT/UTAD) → Sign of Weakness (SOW). The “5a / 5b” double top corresponds to the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD). The price currently sits near the midpoint of the channel, testing resistance around the 50-day SMA (yellow) and prior support-turned-resistance zones. 📉 Statistical Likelihood of Breakdown Historically, when this distribution schematic appears in crypto or equities, it resolves to the downside roughly 65–75% of the time — provided: Volume confirms weakness (volume declining on rallies and expanding on downswings). Lower highs and lower lows continue forming after the UTAD. Momentum (RSI) fails to confirm new highs (bearish divergence). RSI is below 50 and rolling over → neutral-to-bearish momentum. The price rejected near the 50-day SMA and upper channel resistance. Structure shows multiple failed breakout attempts above $4,200–$4,400, aligning with a classic distribution top. 📊 Based on backtests of Wyckoff distribution-type structures (in both traditional and crypto markets): Downside resolution probability: 70% ±10%. Neutral consolidation (sideways): 20%. Bullish continuation / spring scenario: 10%. 🧠 Validity of the Pattern on the Weekly ✅ Higher timeframe = stronger implication. On the weekly chart: The structure has clear symmetry to Wyckoff’s Distribution Schematic. There is a confirmed lower high (5b) near prior ATH. Volume contraction aligns with a mature distribution. RSI failing to reclaim 70 and diverging from price adds to bearish confluence. In Wyckoff methodology, patterns across multiple timeframes that confirm each other (daily + weekly) dramatically increase probability of follow-through. 🧩 Multi-Timeframe Synthesis Daily: short-term distribution (local microstructure) Weekly: intermediate distribution (macro confirmation) Monthly: major cycle-top distribution (potential cycle exhaustion) These three are nested fractals — the monthly chart is the “parent” structure of the same Wyckoff behavior visible on lower frames. That multi-timeframe confluence adds tremendous weight: In Wyckoff terms, a valid distribution on monthly + weekly + daily timeframes is statistically one of the highest-probability setups for a major markdown (≈ 80–85% historical probability once confirmed). 🧩 Fractal Nature of Wyckoff Structures Markets are fractal: smaller patterns nest inside larger ones. The daily distribution identified is the micro-mechanics — the short-term redistribution of supply near resistance. The weekly structure is the intermediate framework confirming that supply dominance isn’t just a blip but a developing trend. The monthly is the macro cycle top — the large-scale distribution that governs the whole market phase (multi-year). 📉 Typical Retrace Targets in Multi-Timeframe Distributions When a smaller-scale breakdown completes the macro distribution: Retrace depth: often 50–65 % of the total distribution height. For ETH, measured from the $4,800 top to the $1,400 macro base → retracement targets of $2,500–$3,000 are classic. In extreme cases (full Phase E markdown), price can revisit or slightly undercut the long-term demand line (~$1,800–$2,000) before new accumulation begins.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by GrammyWammy
9
$BTC Wyckoff DistributionPreliminary supply, or PSY: Occurs when significant interests start to sell lots of shares following a sharp upward trend. Volume increases and the price spread widens, indicating the possibility of a trend change. BC: buying climax, characterized by frequently significant rises in volume and price spread. The intensity of purchasing peaks, with professional interests filling heavy or urgent public demand at prices close to their peak. Since large operators require enormous public demand to sell their shares without reducing the stock price, a BC frequently occurs in conjunction with excellent earnings reports or other positive news. AR: Automatic reaction. After the BC, the strong buying significantly decreased, but the heavy supply persisted, and an AR occurred. The lower border of the distribution TR is defined in part by the selloff's low. ST: Stands for the secondary test, in which the price returns to the BC region to evaluate the demand/supply situation at the current price levels. Supply must exceed demand for a top to be confirmed, so volume and spread should decline as the price moves closer to BC's resistance zone. An ST could appear as an upthrust (UT), in which case the price goes above the resistance indicated by the BC and perhaps other STs before abruptly reversing to close below resistance. Price frequently tests the TR's lower boundary after a UT. SOW—sign of weakness: A downtrend to (or just barely past) the TR's lower border, typically accompanied by an increase in spread and volume, is an indication of weakness (SOW). The AR and the initial SOW(s) point to a shift in the stock's price movement, with supply now in control. Last point of supply, or LPSY: A weak rally on a tight spread following a test of support on a SOW indicates that the market is having significant difficulties advancing. Strong supply, low demand, or both may be to blame for this market's inability to recover. Before markdowns start in earnest, LPSYs signify the end of the demand cycle and the final distribution waves from large operators.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by EtherMatt
▒₿▒ Distribution Top - Anatomy of a Bitcoin Cycle Top ▒₿▒COINBASE:BTCUSD I've identified key price action indications that we have "topped" with an ATH for this Bull Market Cycle. There is a much deeper analysis that needs to be done here. While this price action is the first major clue, to confirm a true distribution top, we'll also need to analyze volume profiles for institutional selling, spot bearish divergences in key momentum oscillators, and watch on-chain metrics for any signs of whale or miner selling pressure. Every Bitcoin cycle has a story, and the final chapter is always the most dramatic. I've been analyzing the price action at every major cycle peak, and there's a recurring pattern that acts like a final warning before the curtain falls. It’s not the explosive top itself, but the messy, indecisive period that follows: the Distribution Top . This isn't just a pattern; it's the visual footprint of a massive transfer of wealth. It’s the moment when the cycle's early investors (smart money) begin to distribute their holdings to the late, euphoric buyers. Look at the price action from the November 2021 ATH top. After the euphoric peak, the clean, powerful uptrend dies. It's replaced by a volatile, sideways "wiggle." The Heikin Ashi candles lose their bodies, showing long wicks on both sides. This is the signature of market conflict and exhaustion. Cycle Tops vs. Local Highs: A Crucial Distinction It's important to understand that this "wiggle" is unique to major, euphoric ATH cycle tops. Other tops, like the one from August 2021 shown below, have a much different character. Notice how the rejection is sharper, faster, and lacks the prolonged, grinding "wiggle." This is often a rejection from a known resistance level, not the slow, painful end of cycle-wide euphoria. The "Distribution Top" is a process. It’s designed to churn, create confusion, and trap breakout traders before the real move down begins. It’s the market grinding at the highs, absorbing the last wave of FOMO. We saw this exact anatomy play out in the April 2021 top as well. The Key Takeaway for Bitcoin Investors: Recognizing this specific pattern is crucial for capital preservation. When you see this shift from clean momentum to choppy, indecisive grinding near an all-time high , it's a signal that the market character has changed. The risk is no longer to the upside; it's to the downside. While this price action is the first major clue, to confirm a true distribution top, we'll also need to analyze key trend lines, candlestick patterns, seasonality, volume profiles for institutional selling, and watch on-chain metrics for any signs of whale or miner selling pressure. Now, take a look at the most recent price action. We are seeing the early stages of this very same pattern developing after a new high. The question every Bitcoin holder should be asking is: Is this history rhyming once again? As I mentioned at the start of this post, there are much more metrics to analyze here, so I'll be updating this post with further findings. DISCLAIMER I AM NOT A FINACIAL ADVISOR, NOR AM I YOURS. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. MEARLY DOODLINGS ON A MATHMATICALLY DRIVEN GRAPHICAL INTERFACE, TRACKING AN INVISIBLE 256BIT MILITARY-GRADE ENCRYPTED ASSET. . . FOR ENTERTAINMENT/AMUSEMENT PUROSES ONLY. ENJOY! Looking to hear your thoughts on this @TradingView @Profit_Through_Patience @David_Perk @ProjectSyndicate @Xanrox_ @HAMED_AZ @melikatrader94
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CRYPTIK1
16
Dead Cat or Last Breath? RHC’s Pivot Trap LoomsRHC is sitting at a pivotal moment. For the bullish case to stay alive, we need to see price swiftly reclaim and close above ~$43 — that’s the line in the sand. However, I’m leaning toward Scenario 1, which suggests a short-term push up to the yearly pivot and macro 50% retracement level, followed by a rejection and sharp move lower. Bearish Pathway Initial Bounce: Push toward ~$43 could trap late longs. Rejection Zone: Yearly pivot and macro 50% level act as resistance. Downside Targets: First stop: $26 — previous structural support. Then potentially: $18 — deeper liquidity zone and psychological level.
ASX:RHCShort
by AlvinDeo96
BTC Bitcoin in Distribution Phase BLOW-OFF TOPI believe Bitcoin BTC is in Wyckoff Distribution Phase B heading for Upthrust After Distribution (New ATH) Sweeping $124,500 price. For me, that would be the BLOW-OFF TOP and the end of this cycles. For this scenario to play out, after taking liquidity above the current ATH, it needs to start reversing and dropping. If it closes above the current ATH, then this idea would be invalidated. There are other factors which would confirm this idea but I am not gonna share it publicly. Good luck and Happy Trading...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by f371321
GBPUSD - Technical Outlook (Long + Short Term)In this article, I’ll share my current outlook on GBPUSD, highlighting both higher time frame (HTF) and intraday considerations. Higher Time Frame Analysis The overall trend remains bearish. Price is still trading within the previous structural leg, with the key level at 1.42500. Unless we see a decisive break above this level, my bias will remain bearish for this pair. Recently, we’ve witnessed what looks like institutional manipulation to the upside, followed by a sharp bearish reaction from the weekly supply zone. This price action aligns with a classic Wyckoff distribution cycle, which often signals that the prevailing trend is likely to continue. Intraday Advice For short-term traders, it’s best to wait for lower time frame (LTF) pullbacks and signs of manipulation before considering short positions. If price continues to push lower, there should be opportunities to ride the trend down over the coming weeks, with multiple entry points along the way. Trading Considerations If this analysis plays out, there’s potential to maximize gains through both swing and intraday trades. However, patience and risk management are key. Losses are inevitable - what matters is managing risk and staying disciplined. Key Points to Remember: Wait for clear pullbacks before entering trades. Stick to your risk management plan. Stay patient and let the market come to you. This is an exciting time to trade FX:GBPUSD , but always assess if the risk is worth the reward before entering any position. Happy hunting predators... Apex out!
Short
by Apexfx_Alpha
USDT.D Update: Range Reversal in Play?Initially in my last update, I was expecting USDT.D to push into daily supply levels after taking the swing low from the prior daily higher low — pulling back into supply before continuing lower after the market structure break. Instead, it pushed even deeper, taking out the range low swing at 4.56%, which allowed BTC to break higher and tag its ATH by taking major upside liquidity. Since then, we’ve seen a cool-off from those levels. Supply has come in across majors (notably TOTAL), and I’ve been tracking the local range forming in USDT.D — forecasting a reversal back into supply. That reversal is now starting to show itself, with USDT.D rising as BTC and alts pull back. I'm currently watching for a push into the 5.0% – 5.6% supply zone, which I believe could mark the next major pivot point for the market. From there, I’ll be looking for weakness or signs of rejection in USDT.D — which would align with BTC and the broader market setting up for another leg higher. Once this supply is hit and the move starts rolling over, I expect USDT.D to begin its final phase down toward 3.73% — a key HTF demand and bullish reversal level. That would mark a major shift, coinciding with what I believe will be the macro market top forming across risk assets. This level will be one I’m watching closely for DCA entries and scaling back into exposure — the reversal in USDT dominance from that zone should align with the last stage of the current cycle before distribution takes over. 1D: 3D: 1W: 3M:
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by marshyyy
2