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Wyckoffmethod

♻️ Wyckoff, again, again and AGAIN ⁉️ - #LDTP 8.2Let's do the point ! I will go straight to the point : I don't like this Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern at all ! Let me explain and I will be brief : Volume are constant so ... we expect a spring most of the time. Take a look at the spring area and ... it's terrible. To remind, we are just on the primary support of the weekly upward channel which is the yellow line between the two grey support areas, we are just over the support of the bullish trend which is the grey area of $33,000 - $28,200 and the last barrier before the bear side of the strenth. I believe in Wyckoff BUT I don't believe in the psychology of this market (for the moment) and when I see the spring area just under the support area, ... I don't believe it can hold the flush or in other way : Could institutionnals absorb all the selling exhaust ? Believe me, if it happen, this will be the biggest volume that we ever seen on BTC for sure. So multiples options to don't see that happen : Another cycle inside the range with falling volumes to avoid this possibility of spring Too strong support of weekly channel which mean we can't go retest the support area of Wyckoff and so avoid the spring and precipitate the bull breakout Break the support area of Wyckoff and see directly a strong pressure of the grey support area to create a STB and possibly a bull breakout or falling volumes (like June 2021) Do a short spring which mean reach only the top of the spring area. It could avoid the flush by not breaking the support area. I hope for everyone that, if we have a spring, you have your stomach well attached because it's going to be sporty (and maybe sweaty). Either way, it's the goal of this pattern to play with psychology of the market, so what's best to put it on the key level of the market ?! In the case Wyckoff fail, it will be a new perspective of the market, a perspective where we will have to project to the bear side. Don't forget : "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" Like, follow or comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue ! I will update this idea with evolution of the pattern.
by Kentg
3
Bitcoin 4H range. My thoughtsBitcoin has been consolidating inside of a range since the beginning of 2022. This range is showing obvious signs of a distribution phase (manipulated highs/higher highs). Right now it seems like there are equal lows at around 37k ready to be wiped for liquidity. There is also a daily supply zone at 46-48k which I think price is very likely to tap for one more higher high before topping out and moving lower. Now whether 37k gets manipulated first or 46-48k I have no clue tbh but it makes more sense for it to move up to the daily supply before going down to tap the lows at 36k and later 30k. So if I had to choose, money is on 46-48k first then 37k. Now do with that information as you will, and as always, gl traders! NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpaceBlobb
2
Long BTC at Selling ClimaxPreviously, I’ve demonstrated stepping-stone descending horizontal Wyckoff re-distribution trading ranges for BTC. Interestingly, the last 3 transitions from Wyckoff re-distribution Phase E to Phase A were similar. In all 3 cases, we observed a climatic level of volume. In all 3 cases, we observed sell bars with a large spread. The percent change in price for these Phase E/Phase A transitions were -26.84%, -21.28%, and -24.98% in Dec 2021, Jan 2022, and May 2022, respectively. In all 3 cases, we observed a selling climax (SC), which serves the purpose of stopping the down trend, followed by an automatic rally (ARa). I expect that we will observe an ARa to the first area of important resistance, which is the open of the May 9 sell bar ($33,945). I have opened a long position at $30,476 and I have a take profit target of $33,945, which is an 11.38% profit. Significant bars, which help define important areas of support and resistance, are given by the blue shading. The blue arrows point to volume spikes. Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), selling climax (SC), secondary test (ST), upthrust (UT), failed upthrust (FUT), last point of supply (LPSY), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SOW), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D), Phase E (Ph E). This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Eightchains
8
BTC/USD Wyckoff Accumulation Updated May 2022Let me start by saying this is not financial advice and this prediction is purely based Wyckoff Accumulation theory. Current Bearish sentiment and global financial state could change everything anytime so please DYOR before making investment decisions. Also please do not take the price point and timeline literally because this is a pattern prediction. This prediction is based on assuming BTC has found some support at 30k or in this area which makes an ST in phase B. Based on this, BTC looks like forming the following Wykoff Auumulation patterns - Schematics 1 - Green Schematics 2 - Orange According to Schematics 1 - Spring could be anywhere between 20k to 30k depending on market sentiment and assuming 30k is the ST in phase B.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoCafeClub
1
BTC Short Near Trading Range SupportThis chart builds on previous ideas I’ve shared regarding the BTC price action since October, 2021. In a previous publication, I stated that we likely had observed a shakeout (SO)/sign of weakness (SOW) in potential Phase D of Wyckoff re-distribution. I presented a scenario that would confirm my idea (solid red line). According to this scenario, we would observe a last point of supply (LPSY) event followed by the price breaking the trading range support to the downside. I presented a scenario that would disconfirm my idea (solid green line). According to this scenario, we had observed a SO/Spring event, which would be followed by a sign of strength (SOS) rally. The price data from over the last 12 days seems to confirm my idea of stepping-stone BTC Wyckoff re-distribution. Given the observation of a likely LPSY, we may open a short position near the trading range support (approximately $41,000) or at the present price. The take profit targets are at the next support levels; specifically, $37,400 (-5.4%), $33,700 (-14.4%), and $29,900 (-25.2%). The upper and lower boundaries of the trading ranges are given by the solid black lines and black dotted line. Significant bars, which help define important areas of support and resistance, are given by the blue shading. The blue arrows point to volume spikes. Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), automatic reaction (ARe), buying climax (BC), secondary test (ST), upthrust (UT), failed upthrust (FUT), last point of supply (LPSY), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SO), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D), Phase E (Ph E). The Phoenix Ascending (PA) indicator by @WyckoffMode is given in the bottom panel. The projected path for the red relative strength index (RSI), blue least squared moving average (LMSA), and energy (E), are given by the red, blue, and grey dotted lines. This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Eightchains
8
BTC/USD Triangle in play? variation #2As I've mentioned on my stream, a breakdown below the current wave C low at 32933.33 just invalidates that particular triangle. There is the possibility that another triangle could be printing in that scenario as shown in this chart. Wave C could still be in progress. However, it would need to reverse prior to the wave A support at 28800. Breaking down below that level will invalidate all the triangle scenarios. This only becomes possible if price breaks down below 32933.33.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
3
Wyckoff Logic Supply and Demand GBPUSD Technical analysis Cause, distribution, equilibrium sequence between demand and supply between quotas , supply zone 1.26179 & 1.24113 demand zone . Supply greater than Demand! Implications, bearish! Pattern Rally base Drop! Effect generated by approx 300 pips. SL 1.25162 Entry 1.23318, sell! TP 1.20000 ⭕ = circle ⏹ = square 🔺️ = triangle Unit = ⭕ market Polarity = 🔺️demand & 🔻supply Equilibrium = ⏹ range ("the ratio between supply and demand is =") PRINCIPLE OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY The law of supply and demand - here the analysts study the relationship between supply and demand , having as a reference point the price and volume over a period of time as shown on the chart. KEY DEFINITION The law of supply and demand is of the utmost importance. If the application to buy an instrument (currency pairs, stocks, commodities , metals, bonds, cryptocurrencies) is higher than the available supply, the only way the demand can be met is for the price to rise to a level that attracts enough supply to match demand. When this point is reached, the price does not advance. If the offer to sell is higher than the demand to buy, the only way the supply will be absorbed is as the price drops to a point that attracts enough demand to absorb all the amount. When that happens, the price doesn't go down.
Short
by HoratiuBogdan
Wyckoff trading using the example of ADA/BTC Accumulation schemePay attention to the phases and letter designations on the graph that I showed on the ADA / BTC pair. (Cardano). A diagram of the accumulation phases is shown. Which are relevant for trading now. Several trading methods are combined on the chart: 1) Trading by the Wyckoff method. 2) Trade in horizontal channels. 3) Trade from important areas (price reversal points). 4) Trading in secondary local trends. Now the price is at the important zone of the mirror level which, from the development of the situation, can act as support or resistance. Channel pitch 30%. You can work in two directions. _________________________________ About Wyckoff's trading method. The forerunner of volume analysis (VSA) is Richard Wyckoff. Roughly speaking, the whole point of the method can be expressed - trade for a major market player. The creator of this technique himself was a man who had a system-forming influence on stock trading. It was not a poor theorist who got rich after publishing books! He was a very successful trader and earned impressive capital in his day. The very method that he was allowed to achieve and the entire 40 years of experience in trading, he published in his book in the public domain is already closer to his death Wall Street Ventures and Adventures Through Forty Years. At the end of his life's journey, Wyckoff became more altruistic, and decided to share the knowledge that led him to wealth. He died in 1934. The Wyckoff trading method was developed in the early 1930s. It consists of a number of principles and strategies originally developed for traders and investors. Wyckoff devoted much of his life experience to studying market behavior, and his work still has an impact on much of modern technical analysis (TA). Currently, the Wyckoff method is applied to all types of financial markets, although initially it was focused only on stocks. During the creation of his work, Wyckoff was inspired by the trading methods of other successful traders (especially Jesse Livermore). Today, he enjoys the same respect as other key figures such as Charles Dow and Ralph Nelson Elliott. But for example, unlike Elliot’s theory, which is good in theory, but not always applicable in practice, the Wyckoff method is many times more effective for making money not in theory, but in practice. _________________________________________ According to Richard Wyckoff's trading method, there are 3 laws: 1) The law of supply and demand. 2) The law of causation. 3) The law of communication efforts and results. The first law states that the value of assets begins to rise when demand exceeds supply, and accordingly falls in the reverse order. This is one of the most basic principles in the financial markets, which does not exclude Wyckoff in his work. We can represent the first law in the form of three simple equations: 1) Demand> supply = price increases. 2) Demand
Education
by SpartaBTC
6
Wyckoff trading using the example of ADA/BTC Accumulation schemePay attention to the phases and letter designations on the graph that I showed on the ADA / BTC pair. (Cardano). A diagram of the accumulation phases is shown. Which are relevant for trading now. Several trading methods are combined on the chart: 1) Trading by the Wyckoff method. 2) Trade in horizontal channels. 3) Trade from important areas (price reversal points). 4) Trading in secondary local trends. Now the price is at the important zone of the mirror level which, from the development of the situation, can act as support or resistance. Channel pitch 30%. You can work in two directions. _________________________________ About Wyckoff's trading method. The forerunner of volume analysis (VSA) is Richard Wyckoff. Roughly speaking, the whole point of the method can be expressed - trade for a major market player. The creator of this technique himself was a man who had a system-forming influence on stock trading. It was not a poor theorist who got rich after publishing books! He was a very successful trader and earned impressive capital in his day. The very method that he was allowed to achieve and the entire 40 years of experience in trading, he published in his book in the public domain is already closer to his death Wall Street Ventures and Adventures Through Forty Years. At the end of his life's journey, Wyckoff became more altruistic, and decided to share the knowledge that led him to wealth. He died in 1934. The Wyckoff trading method was developed in the early 1930s. It consists of a number of principles and strategies originally developed for traders and investors. Wyckoff devoted much of his life experience to studying market behavior, and his work still has an impact on much of modern technical analysis (TA). Currently, the Wyckoff method is applied to all types of financial markets, although initially it was focused only on stocks. During the creation of his work, Wyckoff was inspired by the trading methods of other successful traders (especially Jesse Livermore). Today, he enjoys the same respect as other key figures such as Charles Dow and Ralph Nelson Elliott . But for example, unlike Elliot’s theory, which is good in theory, but not always applicable in practice, the Wyckoff method is many times more effective for making money not in theory, but in practice. _________________________________________ According to Richard Wyckoff's trading method, there are 3 laws: 1) The law of supply and demand . 2) The law of causation. 3) The law of communication efforts and results. The first law states that the value of assets begins to rise when demand exceeds supply, and accordingly falls in the reverse order. This is one of the most basic principles in the financial markets, which does not exclude Wyckoff in his work. We can represent the first law in the form of three simple equations: 1) Demand> supply = price increases. 2) Demand
Education
by SpartaBTC
4
Basic of WyckoffWhat is the Wyckoff Method? The Wyckoff Method was developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 1930s. It consists of a series of principles and strategies initially designed for traders and investors. Wyckoff dedicated a significant part of his life teaching, and his work impacts much of modern technical analysis (TA). While the Wyckoff Method was originally focused on stocks, it is now applied to all sorts of financial markets. A lot of Wyckoff’s work was inspired by the trading methods of other successful traders (especially Jesse L. Livermore). Today, Wyckoff is held in the same high regard as other key figures, such as Charles H. Dow, and Ralph N. Elliott. Wyckoff did extensive research, which led to the creation of several theories and trading techniques. This article gives an overview of his work. The discussion includes: Three fundamental laws; The Composite Man concept; A methodology for analyzing charts (Wyckoff’s Schematics); A five-step approach to the market. Wyckoff also developed specific Buying and Selling Tests, as well as a unique charting method based on Point and Figure (P&F) charts. While the tests help traders spot better entries, the P&F method is used to define trading targets. However, this article won’t dive into these two topics. The three laws of Wyckoff The Law of Supply and Demand The first law states that prices rise when demand is greater than supply, and drop when the opposite is true. This is one of the most basic principles of financial markets and is certainly not exclusive to Wyckoff’s work. We may represent the first law with three simple equations: Demand > Supply = Price rises Demand < Supply = Price drops Demand = Supply = No significant price change (low volatility) In other words, the first Wyckoff law suggests that an excess of demand over supply causes prices to go up because there are more people buying than selling. But, in a situation where there is more selling than buying, the supply exceeds demand, causing the price to drop. Many investors who follow the Wyckoff Method compare price action and volume bars as a way to better visualize the relation between supply and demand. This often provides insights into the next market movements. The Law of Cause and Effect The second law states that the differences between supply and demand are not random. Instead, they come after periods of preparation, as a result of specific events. In Wyckoff's terms, a period of accumulation (cause) eventually leads to an uptrend (effect). In contrast, a period of distribution (cause) eventually results in a downtrend (effect). Wyckoff applied a unique charting technique to estimate the potential effects of a cause. In other terms, he created methods of defining trading targets based on the periods of accumulation and distribution. This allowed him to estimate the probable extension of a market trend after breaking out of a consolidation zone or trading range (TR). The Law of Effort vs. Result The third Wyckoff law states that the changes in an asset’s price are a result of an effort, which is represented by the trading volume. If the price action is in harmony with the volume, there is a good chance the trend will continue. But, if the volume and price diverge significantly, the market trend is likely to stop or change direction. For instance, imagine that the Bitcoin market starts to consolidate with a very high volume after a long bearish trend. The high volume indicates a big effort, but the sideways movement (low volatility) suggests a small result. So, there is a lot of Bitcoins changing hands, but no more significant price drops. Such a situation could indicate that the downtrend may be over, and a reversal is near. The Composite Man Wyckoff created the idea of the Composite Man (or Composite Operator) as an imaginary identity of the market. He proposed that investors and traders should study the stock market as if a single entity was controlling it. This would make it easier for them to go along the market trends. In essence, the Composite Man represents the biggest players (market makers), such as wealthy individuals and institutional investors. It always acts in his own best interest to ensure he can buy low and sell high. The Composite Man’s behavior is the opposite of the majority of retail investors, which Wyckoff often observed losing money. But according to Wyckoff, the Composite Man uses a somewhat predictable strategy, from which investors can learn from. Let’s use the Composite Man concept to illustrate a simplified market cycle. Such a cycle consists of four main phases: accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend. Accumulation The Composite Man accumulates assets before most investors. This phase is usually marked by a sideways movement. The accumulation is done gradually to avoid the price from changing significantly. Uptrend When the Composite Man is holding enough shares, and the selling force is depleted, he starts pushing the market up. Naturally, the emerging trend attracts more investors, causing demand to increase. Notably, there may be multiple phases of accumulation during an uptrend. We may call them re-accumulation phases, where the bigger trend stops and consolidates for a while, before continuing its upward movement. As the market moves up, other investors are encouraged to buy. Eventually, even the general public become excited enough to get involved. At this point, demand is excessively higher than supply. Distribution Next, the Composite Man starts distributing his holdings. He sells his profitable positions to those entering the market at a late stage. Typically, the distribution phase is marked by a sideways movement that absorbs demand until it gets exhausted. Downtrend Soon after the distribution phase, the market starts reverting to the downside. In other words, after the Composite Man is done selling a good amount of his shares, he starts pushing the market down. Eventually, the supply becomes much greater than demand, and the downtrend is established. Similar to the uptrend, the downtrend may also have re-distribution phases. These are basically short-term consolidation between big price drops. They may also include Dead Cat Bounces or the so-called bull traps, where some buyers get trapped, hoping for a trend reversal that doesn’t happen. When the bearish trend is finally over, a new accumulation phase begins. Wyckoff’s Schematics The Accumulation and Distribution Schematics are likely the most popular part of Wyckoff’s work - at least within the cryptocurrency community. These models break down the Accumulation and Distribution phases into smaller sections. The sections are divided into five Phases (A to E), along with multiple Wyckoff Events, which are briefly described below. Accumulation Schematic Wyckoff method accumulation schematic Phase A The selling force decreases, and the downtrend starts to slow down. This phase is usually marked by an increase in trading volume. The Preliminary Support (PS) indicates that some buyers are showing up, but still not enough to stop the downward move. The Selling Climax (SC) is formed by an intense selling activity as investors capitulate. This is often a point of high volatility, where panic selling creates big candlesticks and wicks. The strong drop quickly reverts into a bounce or Automatic Rally (AR), as the excessive supply is absorbed by the buyers. In general, the trading range (TR) of an Accumulation Schematic is defined by the space between the SC low and the AR high. As the name suggests, the Secondary Test (ST) happens when the market drops near the SC region, testing whether the downtrend is really over or not. At this point, the trading volume and market volatility tend to be lower. While the ST often forms a higher low in relation to the SC, that may not always be the case. Phase B Based on Wyckoff’s Law of Cause and Effect, Phase B may be seen as the Cause that leads to an Effect. Essentially, Phase B is the consolidation stage, in which the Composite Man accumulates the highest number of assets. During this stage, the market tends to test both resistance and support levels of the trading range. There may be numerous Secondary Tests (ST) during Phase B. In some cases, they may produce higher highs (bull traps) and lower lows (bear traps) in relation to the SC and AR of the Phase A. Phase C A typical Accumulation Phase C contains what is called a Spring. It often acts as the last bear trap before the market starts making higher lows. During Phase C, the Composite Man ensures that there is little supply left in the market, i.e., the ones that were to sell already did. The Spring often breaks the support levels to stop out traders and mislead investors. We may describe it as a final attempt to buy shares at a lower price before the uptrend starts. The bear trap induces retail investors to give up their holdings. In some cases, however, the support levels manage to hold, and the Spring simply does not occur. In other words, there may be Accumulation Schematics that present all other elements but not the Spring. Still, the overall scheme continues to be valid. Phase D The Phase D represents the transition between the Cause and Effect. It stands between the Accumulation zone (Phase C) and the breakout of the trading range (Phase E). Typically, the Phase D shows a significant increase in trading volume and volatility. It usually has a Last Point Support (LPS), making a higher low before the market moves higher. The LPS often precedes a breakout of the resistance levels, which in turn creates higher highs. This indicates Signs of Strength (SOS), as previous resistances become brand new supports. Despite the somewhat confusing terminology, there may be more than one LPS during Phase D. They often have increased trading volume while testing the new support lines. In some cases, the price may create a small consolidation zone before effectively breaking the bigger trading range and moving to Phase E. Phase E The Phase E is the last stage of an Accumulation Schematic. It is marked by an evident breakout of the trading range, caused by increased market demand. This is when the trading range is effectively broken, and the uptrend starts. Distribution Schematic In essence, the Distribution Schematics works in the opposite way of the Accumulation, but with slightly different terminology. Wyckoff method distribution schematic Phase A The first phase occurs when an established uptrend starts to slow down due to decreasing demand. The Preliminary Supply (PSY) suggests that the selling force is showing up, although still not strong enough to stop the upward movement. The Buying Climax (BC) is then formed by an intense buying activity. This is usually caused by inexperienced traders that buy out of emotions. Next, the strong move up causes an Automatic Reaction (AR), as the excessive demand is absorbed by the market makers. In other words, the Composite Man starts distributing his holdings to the late buyers. The Secondary Test (ST) occurs when the market revisits the BC region, often forming a lower high. Phase B The Phase B of a Distribution acts as the consolidation zone (Cause) that precedes a downtrend (Effect). During this phase, the Composite Man gradually sells his assets, absorbing and weakening market demand. Usually, the upper and lower bands of the trading range are tested multiple times, which may include short-term bear and bull traps. Sometimes, the market will move above the resistance level created by the BC, resulting in an ST that can also be called an Upthrust (UT). Phase C In some cases, the market will present one last bull trap after the consolidation period. It’s called UTAD or Upthrust After Distribution. It is, basically, the opposite of an Accumulation Spring. Phase D The Phase D of a Distribution is pretty much a mirror image of the Accumulation one. It usually has a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) in the middle of the range, creating a lower high. From this point, new LPSYs are created - either around or below the support zone. An evident Sign of Weakness (SOW) appears when the market breaks below the support lines. Phase E The last stage of a Distribution marks the beginning of a downtrend, with an evident break below the trading range, caused by a strong dominance of supply over demand. Does the Wyckoff Method work? Naturally, the market doesn’t always follow these models accurately. In practice, the Accumulation and Distribution Schematics can occur in varying ways. For example, some situations may have a Phase B lasting much longer than expected. Or else, the Spring and UTAD Tests may be totally absent. Still, Wyckoff’s work offers a wide range of reliable techniques, which are based on his many theories and principles. His work is certainly valuable to thousands of investors, traders, and analysts worldwide. For instance, the Accumulation and Distribution schematics may come handy when trying to understand the common cycles of financial markets. Wyckoff’s five-step approach Wyckoff also developed a five-step approach to the market, which was based on his many principles and techniques. In short, this approach may be seen as a way to put his teaching into practice. Step 1: Determine the trend. What is the current trend and where it is likely to go? How is the relation between supply and demand? Step 2: Determine the asset’s strength. How strong is the asset in relation to the market? Are they moving in a similar or opposite fashion? Step 3: Look for assets with sufficient Cause. Are there enough reasons to enter a position? Is the Cause strong enough that makes the potential rewards (Effect) worth the risks? Step 4: Determine how likely is the move. Is the asset ready to move? What is its position within the bigger trend? What do the price and volume suggest? This step often involves the use of Wyckoff’s Buying and Selling Tests. Step 5: Time your entry. The last step is all about timing. It usually involves analyzing a stock in comparison to the general market. For example, a trader can compare the price action of a stock in relation to the S&P 500 index. Depending on their position within their individual Wyckoff Schematic, such an analysis may provide insights into the next movements of the asset. Eventually, this facilitates the establishment of a good entry. Notably, this method works better with assets that move together with the general market or index. In cryptocurrency markets, though, this correlation isn’t always present but definitely you can find a lot of wyckoff pattern in Crypto.
Education
by ridenz77
APP Potential Spring - Waiting for backtestEyeballing APP here. On the daily we have three drives of classic bullish divergence on the MACD indicating price action reversal. So far, the price has indeed rallied. If APP can successfully backtest that $49.86 previous all-time low close here in late march, then I'll take a long with the chance for a very nice April/May return. Also, the sellers failed to push the price down to the bottom of that descending channel. Further signalling a greater chance of a reversal and eventual breakout to the upside. Entry: None yet, need a successful backtest of the spring.
NASDAQ:APPLong
by MediumOfEscape
Bitcoin Wyckoff AccumulationAs the Crypto bullrun possibly comes to end, there have been suggestions of a third run to 72k - marking the wyckoff distribution pattern and the retest of the All Time High (69K) and then back down. However, with Bitcoin and Ethereum rejecting 200MA's and 200EMA's on the 1D / 4Hour charts with weak buying volume, this is becoming less and less likely a possibility. That coupled with higher interest rates and the stock market falling, we could be in for a tough few months, with Bitcoin ranging between 30K and 48K. I have noticed a possible accumulation pattern that could be taking place as we speak (please see the chart and explanation below). Our Daily SELL indicator suggests we SHORT, so we went SHORT at 41.8k to hold until the low 30's. Suggestions of Bitcoin going lower than 28.8K is probably exaggerated - there are some very big players in the market right now such as Microstrategy, Grayscale, Tesla who's average is higher than this. You can bet manipulation will hold Bitcoin above this price and we will never go lower than 28.8K (UNLESS there is a Great Depression). Early 2023 should mark the start of Phase C/D - 1 year BEFORE the next halving, usually a point where smart money accumulates the most coins. I also imagine the Fed's inflation problem is going to start becoming more of a problem again, with higher interest rates not having the same effect it has in 2022. Here is a detailed explanation of Wyckoff accumulation and the levels as shown on the chart: Phase A: Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. Up to this point, supply has been dominant. The approaching diminution of supply is evidenced in preliminary support (PS) and a selling climax (SC). These events are often very obvious on bar charts, where widening spread and heavy volume depict the transfer of huge numbers of shares from the public to large professional interests. Once these intense selling pressures have been relieved, an automatic rally (AR), consisting of both institutional demand for shares as well as short-covering, typically ensues. A successful secondary test (ST) in the area of the SC will show less selling than previously and a narrowing of spread and decreased volume, generally stopping at or above the same price level as the SC. If the ST goes lower than that of the SC, one can anticipate either new lows or prolonged consolidation. The lows of the SC and the ST and the high of the AR set the boundaries of the TR. Horizontal lines may be drawn to help focus attention on market behavior, as seen in the two Accumulation Schematics above. Sometimes the downtrend may end less dramatically, without climactic price and volume action. In general, however, it is preferable to see the PS, SC, AR and ST, as these provide not only a more distinct charting landscape but a clear indication that large operators have definitively initiated accumulation. In a re-accumulation TR (which occurs during a longer-term uptrend), the points representing PS, SC and ST are not evident in Phase A. Rather, in such cases, Phase A resembles that more typically seen in distribution (see below). Phases B-E generally have a shorter duration and smaller amplitude than, but are ultimately similar to, those in the primary accumulation base. Phase B: In Wyckoffian analysis, Phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend (see Wyckoff Law #2 – “Cause and Effect”). In Phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup. The process of institutional accumulation may take a long time (sometimes a year or more) and involves purchasing shares at lower prices and checking advances in price with short sales. There are usually multiple STs during Phase B, as well as upthrust-type actions at the upper end of the TR. Overall, the large interests are net buyers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of acquiring as much of the remaining floating supply as possible. Institutional buying and selling imparts the characteristic up-and-down price action of the trading range. Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide and accompanied by high volume. As the professionals absorb the supply, however, the volume on downswings within the TR tends to diminish. When it appears that supply is likely to have been exhausted, the stock is ready for Phase C. Phase C: It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “smart money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. As noted above, a spring is a price move below the support level of the TR (established in Phases A and B) that quickly reverses and moves back into the TR. It is an example of a bear trap because the drop below support appears to signal resumption of the downtrend. In reality, though, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers (bears). In Wyckoff's method, a successful test of supply represented by a spring (or a shakeout) provides a high-probability trading opportunity. A low-volume spring (or a low-volume test of a shakeout) indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position. The appearance of a SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates the analysis. As noted in Accumulation Schematic #2, however, the testing of supply can occur higher up in the TR without a spring or shakeout; when this occurs, the identification of Phase C can be challenging. Phase D: If we are correct in our analysis, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, as well as reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top of the TR. LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions. Phase E: In Phase E, the stock leaves the TR, demand is in full control and the markup is obvious to everyone. Setbacks, such as shakeouts and more typical reactions, are usually short-lived. New, higher-level TRs comprising both profit-taking and acquisition of additional shares (“re-accumulation”) by large operators can occur at any point in Phase E. These TRs are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets. And here are the terms related to what you see in the chart: GLOSSARY: PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end. SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests. AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC. Note: Springs or shakeouts usually occur late within a TR and allow the stock’s dominant players to make a definitive test of available supply before a markup campaign unfolds. A “spring” takes price below the low of the TR and then reverses to close within the TR; this action allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to acquire additional shares at bargain prices. A terminal shakeout at the end of an accumulation TR is like a spring on steroids. Shakeouts may also occur once a price advance has started, with rapid downward movement intended to induce retail traders and investors in long positions to sell their shares to large operators. However, springs and terminal shakeouts are not required elements: Accumulation Schematic 1 depicts a spring, while Accumulation Schematic 2 shows a TR without a spring. Test—Large operators always test the market for supply throughout a TR (e.g., STs and springs) and at key points during a price advance. If considerable supply emerges on a test, the market is often not ready to be marked up. A spring is often followed by one or more tests; a successful test (indicating that further price increases will follow) typically makes a higher low on lesser volume. SOS—sign of strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume. Often a SOS takes place after a spring, validating the analyst’s interpretation of that prior action. LPS—last point of support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistance, on diminished spread and volume. On some charts, there may be more than one LPS, despite the ostensibly singular precision of this term. BU—“back-up”. This term is short-hand for a colorful metaphor coined by Robert Evans, one of the leading teachers of the Wyckoff method from the 1930s to the 1960s. Evans analogized the SOS to a “jump across the creek” of price resistance, and the “back up to the creek” represented both short-term profit-taking and a test for additional supply around the area of resistance. A back-up is a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up, and can take on a variety of forms, including a simple pullback or a new TR at a higher level.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by reiiss7
8
XDB Long at $0.25Price action for XDB from March 14, 2022 to the present has been pretty remarkable. From a Wyckoffian perspective, we observe a hyperdermic distribution after the buying climax (BC) on March 23. The red arrows point to volume spikes. In these 3 instances they illustrate heavy selling. It’s possible that we have observed a local selling climax (SC) on April 7. If it was a SC, it’s likely the price will enter a trading range. The first level of significant resistance is around $0.34; this corresponds to the price level at which the last significant amount of selling started. I have opened a long position at $0.25 and expect the price to pause around $0.34. Wyckoff abbreviations: preliminary supply (PSY), buying climax (BC), automatic reaction (AR), sign of weakness (SOW), last point of supply (LPSY), selling climax (SC). This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
Long
by Eightchains
4
BTC Potential Sign of Weakness in Re-DistributionThis chart builds on my previous ideas that I’ve shared regarding the BTC price since October, 2021. It appears that the BTC price has been observed in descending stepping-stone horizontal Wyckoff re-distribution trading ranges. The down trend was stopped on Jan 22, 2022 with a selling climax (SC) and the BTC price entered an upward sloping re-distribution trading range (to be confirmed or to fail). Since the BTC price was in a down trending environment from Nov 10, 2021 to Jan 22, 2022, our bias for the current trading range should be in favor of Wyckoff re-distribution, although we should be open to the possibility that the volume and price will demonstrate that our bias was incorrect and that the current trading range was, in fact, Wyckoff re-accumulation. With regard to the more recent price action, we likely have observed a shakeout (SO)/sign of weakness (SOW) in potential Phase D of Wyckoff re-distribution. If this is correct, then we will likely observe upward price movement back into the trading range for a last point of supply (LPSY) event followed by the price breaking the trading range support to the downside. The other possibility is that we have observed a SO/Spring event. If this is correct, then we will observe a sign of strength (SOS) rally. The upper and lower boundaries of the trading ranges are given by the solid black dotted lines. Significant bars, which help define important areas of support and resistance, are given by the blue shading. The blue arrows point to volume spikes. Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), automatic reaction (ARe), buying climax (BC), secondary test (ST), upthrust (UT), failed upthrust (FUT), last point of supply (LPSY), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SO), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D), Phase E (Ph E). This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Eightchains
2