X-indicator
Nifty 4h Chart Analysis: Bullish ScenarioNifty 4h Chart Analysis: Bullish Scenario
*Last Friday's aggressive rejection from 71% fib level(red Fib levels) sent us below last week candle Low.
*Next Support level is Nov3rd down close candle, marked with Green rectangle on weekly chart on Right side +OB(W)
*Mid point of that green rectangle will be a good spot for longs, which is 71% fib level on yellow fib fib
***If market do not show any kind of reversal on that level expecting SellSide Liquidity as next downside target
On the 10th Day of ETHmas...An Early Christmas Present - FULL TP
On the 10th day of ETHmas, My True Love gave to me....a Big Push Up to my TP!!!!
....and a new Daily Structure that could be a Game Changer!
Wow! This ETH play has been absolutely amazing! Today, we continued playing out just as expected and hit our full TP Target of the H4 Daily Source Zone. Please see our previous posts on ETH over the past month to see exactly how we have walked through a solid Technical and Structural Analysis of ETH, and how it played out perfectly!
So, what has happened:
The last day or so has seen what appeared to be a choppy back and forth of the market...responding to more completely irrelevant crypto news, Fed Rate Talks, Microstrategy Megabuys and more. All the while, the market has been simply playing out structure that was laid out a month ago. Today saw ETH push extremely hard ($200+ move), making many think that the Bull run was kicking off again. BTC saw a near identical move. Unfortunately, too many traders chased this pump, only to be slapped back down once it hit the H4 Supply Source that we have been targeting. It is a Supply Source, because that is where the market has already told us that it has been waiting to sell. Unfortunately, too many over zealous traders and investors had no clue and got caught in another big TRAP!
So, where are we now?:
As of this post time, again, we have hit our bullish target for now and got an early Christmas Gift. It was uncertain how long the market would take to push up here, but it did so quickly. At this point, the expected pullback has pushed ETH back down significantly. However, this is still NORMAL MARKET STRUCTURE and no need for alarm. A rejection of an H4 Supply Source is most likely to push the market back down to test a higher time frame support. In this case, it is the last Daily Demand Zone (2980 - 3200). This zone was just created yesterday, December 9th, so it's a new area. BUT, we have to expect the market to pull back to the latest Demand Zone to seek support for moving forward.
What to look for next?:
Now, that we have pushed down near this Daily Demand Zone, we need to go to the correlating H1 Time frame to look for signs that the fall is ending. This Demand Zone is stacked with buyers waiting to buy ETH, but where in this $220 range will they actually start doing it? The H1 will give us a strong indication. $2980- $3040 is the H1 Source within that bigger daily zone, so that is the most likely target.
So, look for an H1 BOS UP coming out of this Daily Demand Zone for the sign that the buyers are ready to step in. Once we see that, I'd expect one more pullback on the H1 (this pullback would need to stay within the Daily Zone) and then we can continue marching upwards.
What to look out for? The New Daily Structure!:
Now, if we get into this Daily Demand Zone and see an H4 close below it, that is a significant problem. Why? Because all the while we have been carrying out this H4 play....the Daily Time Frame has been making its own structure.
A. We got a Daily BOS UP on yesterday when we made a new recent high and created this big Daily Demand Zone. The BOS UP was a close above the previous Daily Supply Zone. SOOOO...we could actually be seeing the same market structure play out on the Daily that we have seen on the H4 this past month. With this Daily BOS UP, the market is likely to return to the Source of that Break...the BOS Demand Source (2610 - 2880). That would be an unwelcomed fall, but it is structure! The only thing preventing that is IF we hold this Daily Demand Zone. That's why I mentioned and H4 close below 2980 is trouble.
So, from here, we need to "Read" the market and play accordingly.
Hopefully, this analysis helps you all as traders or investors to see where we are going and why. Please drop me your comments, suggestions, and other feedback. Also, if you have a favorite pair that you would like me to analyze, I can take a look at it as well. We'd love to help you gain a solid market analysis strategy that can keep you profitable and out of danger in these markets!
XAU/USD timeframe D1 The Fed rate decision is scheduled for December 12, with several Fed officials speaking that day. These events often cause market jitters as traders anticipate changes in interest rates or monetary policy.
Gold tends to react inversely to Fed rate hikes because higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. If the Fed signals a rate increase, gold prices might face downward pressure.
Looking at recent gold price action, the market has been trading in a relatively tight range with an average daily price movement of about 1.48%. Key support is around the 4160-4180 level, while resistance is near 4250-4260.
If the Fed decision surprises with a hawkish tone, gold could test support levels and dip. Conversely, a dovish or unchanged stance might boost gold, pushing it toward resistance.
✅ For short-term traders, watching these support/resistance zones around the Fed event could be key to understanding gold’s next move.
ENTRY: H1- D1
SELL Limit or sell Now: 4272.47 - 4221.54
SL 4271.54
TP 4141.54
This is an educational overview, not investment advice.
Consolidation on GA ExpandsOANDA:GBPAUD has been forming an Expanding Range!
The Expanding Range is a Consolidation phase that consists of Rising Resistance and Falling Support.
At the time of publishing, the Bulls have made a Breakout of the Rising Resistance. If price retests the breakout and is supported, this will generate Long opportunities!
Wait for a Retest!!
YM1! DOW JONES E-MINI FUTURES - THE POST-FED BLUEPRINTDecember 10, 2025 | by officialjackofalltrades
🟢 BULLISH | Fed's "Hawkish Cut" Creates Opportunity
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - THE FED DECISION IS IN
Current Price: $47,913 | Date: December 10, 2025 - POST-FOMC
The Dow Jones E-mini futures just experienced a historic moment :
The Dow gained 497.46 points, or 1.1%, to close at 48,057.75 following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates by a quarter percentage point, putting it in a range between 3.5%-3.75%.
But here's what NOBODY is talking about: This was a "hawkish cut" with three "no" votes, which hasn't happened since September 2019. Yet the market RALLIED .
Why? Because the "hawkish" part was already priced in.
The Technical Setup:
Pattern: Ascending channel (intact since November)
Current Position: Testing mid-channel at 47,700-47,800
Resistance: 48,100-48,300 (upper channel boundary)
Support: 46,800-47,00 (mid-channel), 46,500-46,100 (lower channel)
Breakout Target: 48,000-48,500
The Fed Backdrop:
Powell said "We are well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves"
Translation? The Fed is DONE cutting for now.
But here's the twist: Fed funds futures suggest around a 68% chance the central bank will cut rates two or more times in 2026. The market doesn't believe Powell!
The Trade: Long from 47,700-48,300, target 48,000+
🔎 MARKET CONTEXT - THE FED'S "HAWKISH CUT" PARADOX
What Just Happened (Last 6 Hours)
At 2:00 PM ET today, the Fed delivered exactly what was expected: 25-basis-point reduction from 3.75-4% to 3.50-3.75%.
But the details were hawkish:
Three dissenting votes (Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against, plus two others)
Dot plot indicated just one more cut in 2026 and another in 2027
Seven officials indicated they want NO cuts next year
Powell called it a "very challenging situation"
The Market's Response?
Dow jumped 497.46 points (+1.1%) to 48,057.75. Why rally on hawkish news?
Answer: Because the hawkish tone was already priced in from the pre-meeting leaks and October's dissenting votes. The market expected worse .
The Internal Fed War
Asked about the elevated level of dissenting members, Powell emphasized that everyone on the FOMC agrees that inflation is still too high, and that there are also risks to economic growth.
This Fed is more divided than any time in recent memory :
Hawks (7 members): Want ZERO cuts in 2026
Centrists (5 members): Want 1-2 cuts in 2026
Doves (7 members): Want 2-3 cuts in 2026
19 participants among the governors and regional presidents, 12 of whom vote.
This division means volatility , but also opportunity .
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - THE ASCENDING CHANNEL AT DECISION POINT
The Pattern: Ascending Channel (Bullish Structure)
Your chart shows a textbook ascending channel that's been in play since early November 2025.
Channel Characteristics:
Lower Support: Started at 44,000 (early Nov) → 46,500 (mid-Nov) → 47,000
Current Position: Dow closed at 48,057.75, which is mid-channel perfect positioning for next leg up.
Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages:
50-day MA: ~46,800 (rising, bullish)
200-day MA: ~45,200 (rising, bullish)
Golden Cross: Active since mid-October = long-term bullish
Volume:
Dow jumped on Wednesday after Fed decision with significant volume, this confirms the breakout is real , not a fake pump.
RSI:
Current: ~58-62 (slightly bullish but not overbought)
Room to run to 70+ before overbought conditions
🎯 SCENARIO ANALYSIS - WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
BASE CASE: Grind Higher to 48,000+ - BULLISH
What Happens:
Dow consolidates 48,000-48,400 for 2-3 days
Then breaks above 48,600 with volume
Grinds higher toward 49,000-49,500
Powell's "wait and see" stance removes uncertainty
Holiday buying + year-end window dressing pushes higher
Timeline: 2-3 weeks (by end of December)
Expected Return: +3-4% from 48,000 to 49,500-50,000
Catalysts:
Continued corporate buybacks
Holiday retail strength
Year-end fund rebalancing (institutional buying)
No negative Fed surprises (Powell on "pause")
BULL CASE: Breakout to 50,500+ - VERY BULLISH
What Happens:
Market doesn't believe Powell - 68% chance of 2+ cuts in 2026
Strong economic data (retail sales, employment) supports growth
Dow breaks 49,500 with conviction
FOMO kicks in, target 50,500-51,000
Timeline: 3-4 weeks (by early January)
Expected Return: +5-6% from 48,000
Catalysts:
Q4 earnings beat expectations
Strong holiday retail numbers
Dovish Fed speakers in January
International capital flows into US equities
BEAR CASE : Channel Break to 46,500 - BEARISH
What Happens:
Economic data deteriorates (unemployment spikes)
Earnings disappoint in early Q4 reporting
Geopolitical shock (unlikely but possible)
Dow breaks below 47,400, tests 46,500-47,000
Timeline: 1-2 weeks
Expected Return: -3-4% from 48,000
This is LOW probability given Fed just cut and Powell said "well positioned to wait."
📊 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS - WHY DOW OUTPERFORMS
CATALYST #1: The Fed's "Hawkish Cut" Was Actually Dovish
Let me explain the paradox:
Hawkish Elements:
Three dissenting votes
Dot plot shows only 1 cut in 2026
Powell says "wait and see"
But Dovish Reality:
They STILL cut rates (3rd in a row!)
GDP forecast raised to 2.5% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026
Unemployment expectations unchanged at 4.5% for 2025
68% market probability of 2+ cuts in 2026 means market doesn't believe the hawkish talk
Net Effect: Lower rates NOW + no immediate threat of hikes = bullish for stocks .
CATALYST #2: Corporate Earnings Remain Strong
GE Vernova jumped 8% after saying 2025 revenue trending toward higher end of guidance and doubled quarterly dividend.
This is indicative of broader Dow strength:
Industrial companies benefiting from infrastructure spending
Dividend increases signal confidence
Guidance raises = earnings momentum
CATALYST #3: Small Caps Leading (Risk-On)
Russell 2000 jumped to new all-time highs as lower interest rates benefit smaller firms that need to refinance debt.
When small caps outperform, it's a risk-on signal . Dow industrials benefit from this environment.
CATALYST #4: Year-End Window Dressing
Fund managers underperformed in 2025. In December, they buy winners to make their portfolios look good for year-end reports.
Dow = full of winners like UnitedHealth, Goldman Sachs, Boeing (recovery story).
⚠️ RISK FACTORS - THE BEAR CASE
RISK #1: The Fed Is More Hawkish Than Market Believes
Seven officials indicated they want NO cuts next year
If the Fed actually holds rates at 3.5-3.75% all of 2026, stocks could stall or correct 5-8%.
RISK #2: Channel Break Below 47,000
If Dow closes below 47,000 on daily chart, the ascending channel is broken . Next support: 46,000-46,500 (-4-5%).
RISK #3: Economic Data Deteriorates
Unemployment at 4.5% is manageable, but rising. If it spikes to 5%+, recession fears return.
RISK #4: Geopolitical Shock
US Coast Guard seized sanctioned crude tanker off Venezuela. Tensions with Venezuela/Russia could spike oil prices, hurting economy.
Entry Confirmation Checklist:
Before entering, CHECK:
✅ Price holding above 47,800 (support intact)
✅ Volume on bounce (>50K contracts on daily)
✅ No negative Fed speakers this week
✅ S&P 500 also bouncing (correlation check)
✅ VIX declining below 15 (fear subsiding)
✅ Treasury yields stable or declining
WAIT FOR 4/6 CONFIRMATIONS
THE BOTTOM LINE
Here's what I KNOW on December 10, 2025 (POST-FED):
✅ Dow rallied +497 points (+1.1%) post-Fed to 48,057
✅ Fed cut 25bps as expected to 3.5-3.75%
✅ Powell says "well positioned to wait and see"
✅ Market pricing 68% chance of 2+ cuts in 2026
✅ Ascending channel intact since November
✅ Your technical analysis shows clear support/resistance
Here's what I DON'T know:
Will economic data support more cuts?
Will earnings season (Jan) beat or miss?
Will geopolitical risks escalate?
📍 Follow officialjackofalltrades for post-FOMC analysis, institutional setups, and professional risk management.
Drop a 📊 if you're trading the post-Fed bounce.
Drop a 🎯 if this helped your YM1! setup.
Drop a 💰 if you're ready for 50K Dow.
SLB - Ground Floor Opportunity### Slb weekly trend analysis and one-year projection
You’ve got a strong weekly push: Stochastic is pinned high (99), RSI is constructive (61), MACD is positive, and SAR dots likely sit below price — classic continuation signals. The caveat is overbought momentum often demands either time or price-based cooling. Here’s a clean, scenario-driven one-year view with actionable levels.
---
### Key levels and signals to watch
- **Immediate resistance:** 41–42 (monthly 0.382 zone), then 46–48.
- **Higher resistance:** 50–52 (prior supply), then 58–60.
- **Near support:** 38–39 (breakout retest), then 36–37.
- **Major support:** 32–33 (weekly base), then 30.
- **Continuation triggers:**
- **Close above 42** with rising OBV and expanding MACD histogram.
- **Pullback that holds 38–39** and flips Stochastic back up from mid-range.
- **Warning signs:**
- **Weekly close below 36–37** with MACD cross-down.
- **OBV making lower lows** while price makes higher highs (distribution).
---
### One-year price scenarios
1. **Base case (probable): 46–52**
- **Rationale:** Weekly momentum supports a continued advance after a 38–39 retest or shallow consolidation. RSI in the low 60s often fuels a measured leg higher.
- **Path:** Break 42 → grind through 46–48 → test 50–52. Expect 1–3 consolidations along the way.
2. **Bull case (if energy beta and capex tailwinds accelerate): 58–65**
- **Requirements:** Sustained closes above 50–52, OBV uptrend, ADX > 25 confirming trend strength, and no breakdowns on pullbacks.
- **Risk management:** Trail stops under rising weekly swing lows; watch for bearish divergences near 60–65.
3. **Bear case (less likely unless macro weakens): 30–33**
- **Failure trigger:** Weekly closes below 36–37, MACD turns negative, Stochastic rolls from overbought into persistent sub-50, and SAR flips above price for multiple weeks.
- **Outcome:** Revisit the 32–33 base; a stronger drawdown could probe 30.
---
### Tactics aligned to your chart
- **Add ADX and Ichimoku:**
- **ADX > 25** and +DI over -DI = trend confirmation.
- **Price above cloud** with bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross = higher conviction on breakouts.
- **Execution plan:**
- **Breakout buy:** Partial above 42 on volume; add above 46 with OBV confirmation.
- **Pullback buy:** Scale in 38–39 if momentum resets without distribution signs.
- **Invalidation:** Reduce risk on weekly close below 36–37.
- **Position management:**
- **Stops:** Initial under 38 (tight) or 36 (swing).
- **Targets:** Scale at 46–48, 50–52; hold a runner for 58–60 if trend metrics stay bullish.
If you want, I can help you set TradingView alerts for: weekly close > 42, OBV trendline break up, ADX crossing 25, and MACD histogram expanding — so you only act when your conditions align.
XPT/USD Breakout Explained: Smart Entry, SL, and TP Guide🔥 PROFESSIONAL TRADINGVIEW DESCRIPTION (XPT/USD – PLATINUM)
🌐 Asset: XPT/USD “PLATINUM VS U.S. DOLLAR”
📈 Market: Metals Market – Swing / Day Trade Opportunity Guide
🚀 Trade Plan – Bullish Breakout Confirmation
✨ Platinum is showcasing a strong bullish continuation after clearing a major resistance zone, signaling renewed buyer strength and momentum expansion.
🟢 Entry:
Enter at any price level after a clean breakout retest, ensuring price holds above the previous resistance-turned-support.
Look for stable candles, reduced volatility spikes, and sustained volume power before entering.
🛡️ Stop Loss Strategy 🔐
Stop Loss: “Thief SL” @ 1600
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), kindly adjust your SL based on your personal risk tolerance, exposure, and strategy framework.
➡️ This is not a mandatory SL — manage your risk in the way that protects your capital and suits your trading system.
🎯 Target Zone – Profit Taking Guidance
A strong resistance cluster + overbought behaviour + possible trap zone + correction probability ahead.
📌 Target (TP): 1720
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), this TP is not a compulsory target — your profit-taking should always match your style, system, and comfort level.
🔍 Related Pairs to Watch & Key Correlations
Tracking correlated assets helps confirm the strength or weakness in Platinum’s current breakout phase:
1️⃣ OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold vs USD)
Often moves in similar directional flow to Platinum.
A strong bullish push in Gold can signal broad metals market risk-on sentiment.
2️⃣ OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver vs USD)
Silver reacts faster to volatility.
When Silver surges with Platinum, it confirms metals sector momentum alignment.
3️⃣ $XPTXAU (Platinum/Gold Ratio)
A rising ratio signals Platinum outperforming Gold, supporting bullish Platinum continuation.
Helps validate strength behind XPT’s breakout.
4️⃣ TVC:DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)
Metals typically move inversely to USD.
Weakening DXY adds fuel to bullish XPT/USD scenarios.
5️⃣ Copper ( OANDA:XCUUSD )
Industrial metals correlation:
When Copper is strong, it reflects economic optimism, indirectly supporting Platinum demand sentiment.
📊 Liked this idea? Follow for more metal/forex trade setups!
💬 Comment your entry & exit strategies below – let’s share insights!
👍 If you found this useful, smash that LIKE button and SHARE with your trading community!
#TradingView #Platinum #XPTUSD #MetalsTrading #Breakout #Commodities #Forex #SwingTrading #DayTrading #Bullish #TradeSetup
Happy Trading, and may the pips be with you! 💰✨
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – December 10, 20251. Momentum
D1:
The D1 momentum has already turned upward. Therefore, we expect an upward move on the daily timeframe lasting through the end of this week to complete the green wave C.
H4:
H4 momentum is currently turning down. If the current H4 candle closes confirming this downward signal, the market is likely to form a short-term H4 decline.
H1:
H1 momentum is still rising but is starting to contract and show signs of a bearish reversal. The most recent strong bearish candle with wide downside range indicates that the next downward swing may begin from the H1 timeframe.
________________________________________
2. Wave Structure
D1:
The D1 wave structure has not changed from the previous plan. Price is still progressing within the green wave C. When the green wave C completes, the purple wave X will also complete, followed by a decline forming wave Y.
With D1 momentum turning upward, our expected targets for the purple wave C remain 4329 or 4336.
H4:
Yesterday, price touched the projected target area at 4167 and then bounced back to the POC zone, as anticipated.
The current bearish reversal on H4 momentum is critical:
• If price can remain above 4187 while H4 momentum moves into the oversold zone and then reverses upward, we may see the formation of a 5-wave green structure, which would be an early signal that the corrective wave (4) has completed.
• If price fails to hold above 4187 while H4 momentum continues downward, the green wave (4) may extend further.
H1:
Yesterday’s decline toward the 4168 target strengthens the expectation that wave (C) of the black flat structure (A)-(B)-(C) has completed, meaning green wave (4) may also be complete.
Price then rallied toward the POC at 4215, which we expect to be wave 1.
The current decline shows a 3-wave structure (A)-(B)-(C) in red, which we expect to be wave 2.
The projected completion zones for wave 2 (the end of red wave (C)) are:
• Equal to wave (A): 4197
• 1.618 × wave (A): 4187
From the H4 Volume Profile:
• The two key levels discussed yesterday were POC 4215 and the liquidity boundary at 4187.
• With H4 momentum now turning down and price reacting to POC from below, selling pressure remains dominant.
• Level 4187 acts as the liquidity boundary—if buyers can defend this level, a breakout above 4215 becomes likely.
• If 4187 does not hold while H4 momentum moves into oversold, the green wave (4) could still be ongoing.
________________________________________
3. Trading Plan
We will look to capture the end of wave 2.
Since the two target zones (4197 and 4187) are close to each other, the best approach is to wait for price to reach these areas and observe the reaction before entering.
If placing a limit order, I prefer the upper zone with a slightly wider stop.
BUY ZONE: 4198 – 4196
SL: 4177
TP1: 4218
TP2: 4245
TP3: 4329
Gold Rallies After Fed but Momentum StallsGold surged from 4,190 to nearly 4,240 after the Fed cut rates by 0.25% as expected, pushing the USD and yields lower — an ideal setup for upside continuation. But the rally quickly lost steam because, despite the cut, the Fed signaled it would not lower rates again in 2026. This message told the market that the easing cycle is not as aggressive as hoped, limiting gold’s ability to extend gains.
On the H1 chart, the breakout above 4,210 with a strong momentum candle showed buyers returning, but price immediately ran into resistance at 4.238–4.245, where the left-side Volume Profile clusters heavy selling. Repeated upper wicks show active bearish reactions.
FVG zones are now acting as technical buffers: the 4.220–4.225 gap has been filled and rejected upward; 4.205–4.210 forms the nearest support; the deeper 4.190 FVG remains the strongest intraday floor. The bullish structure is intact but not firm. Ichimoku still signals upside as price holds above the cloud, but the thin future cloud indicates weak momentum — leaving the market prone to choppy price action.
XAUUSD | Gold Signal |Dec 11,2025📌 MARKET ASSESSMENT
1. Fundamental Analysis:
a) Economy:
• USD:
The Fed lowered interest rates by 0.25%, causing the USD to weaken significantly as the market saw the easing cycle officially begin. Bond yields fell sharply, directly supporting gold.
• US Stocks:
Stocks surged after the interest rate cut decision, with money flowing into riskier assets. However, the weaker USD supported gold, so gold was not sold off.
• Fed:
The 0.25% rate cut shows that the Fed wants to stimulate the economy early instead of waiting for Q1/2026 data. However, this information was within expectations and has already been absorbed by the market. Gold is likely to only increase slightly if SPDR does not buy back.
• Trump:
The Trump administration continues to prioritize fiscal easing, public spending, and economic protectionism. These policies help accelerate the economy but in the long term put pressure on the USD, further supporting gold.
• Gold ETF (SPDR):
SPDR sold a small amount of 1.15 tons, mainly short-term profit-taking before the Fed announcement. After the Fed cut interest rates, the likelihood of SPDR returning to accumulate gold is higher, supporting gold.
b) Politics:
The situation in the Middle East has not completely cooled down. Geopolitical instability continues to act as a driving force for gold prices.
c) Market Sentiment:
The market has shifted to risk-on, but at the same time, safe-haven flows remain high due to the weaker USD. Overall: sentiment supports a sustained increase in gold, not a sudden surge.
High demand for gold in Asia at the end of the year is a driving force for gold to reach its all-time high (ATH).
--------------------------------------
2. Technical Analysis:
• Gold broke out of the 4205-4220 accumulation zone with a strong candlestick after the Fed announcement.
• The short-term trend has shifted to an uptrend and is forming a new upward wave.
• The M15 RSI is in the high zone but not yet showing divergence, indicating that the upward momentum is still stable. • Important retest zone: 4.219–4.239 (EMA confluence + box boundary).
• Technical targets based on the pattern are: 4.263 → 4.288 → 4.309.
------------------------------------
RESISTANCE: 4.263 – 4.288 – 4.309
SUPPORT: 4.219 – 4.193 – 4.174
------------------------------------
3. Market performance yesterday (December 10, 2025):
• Gold price fluctuated sharply around the FED event.
• Immediately after the 0.25% reduction was announced, gold rose slightly, then increased more strongly due to a weaker USD.
• The price completely broke out of the 4.219 zone, confirming a new trend.
• SPDR sold 1.15 tons, but this did not have a significant impact because market buying pressure was too strong.
-----------------------------------
4. Strategy for today (December 11, 2025):
🟢 BUY when: (Preferred).
- Price touches support: 4.219 – 4.193 – 4.174 (rebound with M5 candlestick confirmation)
- Price breaks resistance: 4.263 – 4.288 – 4.309 (breakthrough with M5 candlestick confirmation)
🔴 SELL when: (Not preferred).
- Price touches resistance: 4.263 – 4.288 – 4.309 (rebound with M5 candlestick confirmation)
- Price breaks support: 4.219 – 4.193 – 4.174 (breakthrough with M5 candlestick confirmation)
SET ALERTS FOR THESE RESISTANCE/SUPPORT LEVELS. WHEN THE ALARM SOUNDS, ENTER THE TRADE TO MAKE MONEY. - Set Stop Loss below the M5 candlestick's wick for confirmation. If it's swept, the market is sideways – stop trading in that price range and wait until the dangerous zone is passed before continuing. If the M5 candle is short, increase the volume to ensure the risk remains constant and profit increases. Adjust the volume so that the loss per trade is 2% of the account, do not adjust the loss level based on volume.
- Take Profit ensures a good Risk:Reward ratio. To let profits run, close a portion of the position, set the Stop Loss to breakeven for the remainder, do not let profits run using your own capital. Preserving capital is more important than making money.
- When gold crashes, do not try to catch a falling knife, do not chase the price down with sell orders (Sell orders are very dangerous because you're selling in panic and buying in greed). Wait for the price to hit strong support and show signs of reversal before buying aggressively. You'll still profit from the price drop, but more safely.
-------------------------------
5. Notes when Scalping XAU/USD:
• DO NOT LET LOSSES RUN – Cut losses immediately when there is a wrong signal, no need to wait for the Stop Loss. Preserving capital is more important than making money.
• Do not average down, do not enter trades with a volume that exceeds your account's capacity.
• The M5 timeframe RSI is an important signal: oversold → look for buying opportunities, overbought → look for selling opportunities. Stop hunts by large players often leave behind divergences.
• Minimum Stop Loss with a Risk:Reward ratio of 1:1, do not hold trades for too long.
• Prioritize trading with the H1-H4 trend, do not enter trades against the major trend.
• Buying when the M5 candle closes above the MA20 and selling when the M5 candle closes below the MA20 will be better.
• Master the three techniques: DIVERGENCE - BREAKOUT - PATTERN BREAKOUT that the admin has provided. Understand how large players create stop hunts. Do not trade when the market is sideways, accumulating, distributing, or consolidating.
The Bull Is At The Gate, Already!I see lots of liquidity swept last month.
Then, November finishes with this bullish pin-bar.
The momentum remains with bulls.
Fundamentals & divergences in the rhetoric:
Labour market FED says is the weak point in the US economy,
Inflation projected to be tamed even by Tariffs,
* Jobs are created on a strong Stock market, in a lowering interest rate environment.
FED 10th Nov. says January cut unlikely.
But to improve jobs growth & affordability of household expenses for the unemployed / low income people, January cut rhetoric divergence, IE. more chance of occurring supporting stocks.
But and hold investors may be seeing a bottom finally.
Finally, USD is winding back on a bearish MTOP on daily chart which I earlier in the week said could easily retrace at a burst to parity & park at its 200 MA. Causing inflows of safe haven buying.
It didn’t happen with the DXY & is sucked lower opening the gates for GBPUSD, EURUSD & AUSUSD , EURUSD is the bull & let’s see if I’m right and the 1.1920 breakout zone is triggered.
Disclaimer : I’m currently long in EURUSD
and AUDUSD and the S&P, Google & Walmart.
The above is only my interpretation & mistakes can be made. So it’s not investment advice.
Researched & written exclusively by MusicalNight (Chris)
Mercedes‑Benz Group AG📄 Key Fundamentals for Mercedes‑Benz Group AG
Here are some of the most relevant recent valuation and financial metrics for Mercedes‑Benz.
Metric / Indicator Latest / Reported Value*
EPS (TTM) € 6.48 per share
justETF
+2
GuruFocus
+2
P/E (Trailing 12 mo) ~ 9–9.5× (various sources: 8.9×, 9.3×, 9.5×)
Wisesheets
+3
Yahoo Finance
+3
GuruFocus
+3
Forward P/E ≈ 9.1× (2025/2026 estimates)
GuruFocus
+1
PEG ratio (based on 5‑yr EBITDA growth) ~ 0.63–0.66
GuruFocus
+1
Dividend yield (TTM / recent) Estimates around ~ 7% for 2025
Wisesheets
+1
2024 Net Income (full year) ~ € 10,207 million (Net Income) & EPS 6.48 €
justETF
+1
2024 Revenue ~ € 145,594 million (≈ €145.6 bn)
justETF
+1
* “TTM” = trailing twelve months. Figures come from a mix of recent financial‑data sources for 2024–2025.
What these numbers suggest:
A P/E around 9–9.5x is relatively low, especially compared to many global automakers or growth companies — this could imply the stock is modestly valued or undervalued (assuming stable earnings).
PEG < 1 (around 0.63–0.66) suggests that, relative to its growth potential (5‑year EBITDA growth), the valuation might be attractive.
A dividend yield near ~7% (depending on payout policy and share price) is relatively generous, making the stock potentially interesting for income‑oriented investors.
Caveats / Risks:
The forward P/E suggests modest expected earnings growth (or at least modest investor optimism relative to current price).
The auto industry is cyclical and subject to macroeconomic pressures: demand, raw‑material costs, competition, regulatory shifts (especially around EVs), etc.
Past performance (2024 earnings, 2025 interim results) may not guarantee similar performance ahead, especially in a rapidly evolving auto market.
📈 Technical Analysis (Based on Your Chart + General Context)
From the chart and common technical indicators (trend lines, Fibonacci zones, support/resistance, oscillators, etc.):
The price appears to have undergone a significant uptrend (from lows ~ €20s/€30s up to high near ~€90 in earlier years), followed by a prolonged retracement / consolidation phase.
Currently, the stock seems to be trading around €60–62, which may correspond to a mid‑range level (not near the highs, but above recent lows) — potentially forming a base or accumulation zone.
The presence of a Fibonacci retracement overlay suggests investors are watching certain retracement levels (e.g., 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) as potential support/resistance zones.
Momentum indicators — from what can be seen — may show some recovery, but given the long-term volatility, it’s hard to assert a strong bullish reversal without confirmation (breakout, volume increase, improved fundamentals, etc.).
The recent bounce from lower levels may reflect recovery optimism (e.g., better earnings outlook, stabilization of macro conditions, or company-specific developments).
Possible near‑term technical scenarios:
If price holds above current support (~ €55–60) and breaks above recent resistance (~ €62–65), we might see a rally toward higher resistance zones (possibly retesting higher Fibonacci retracement levels).
If price fails to sustain support, there could be a re‑test of lower levels, potentially toward prior consolidation lows (depending on broader market conditions).
🧮 Combined Fundamental + Technical View (Neutral‑to‑Moderately Positive)
Considering the modest P/E, low PEG, and attractive dividend yield, the fundamental valuation of Mercedes‑Benz appears reasonably attractive, especially if the company can maintain earnings and manage industry headwinds well.
On the technical side, the stock seems to be in a consolidation or base‑building phase, which — if combined with favorable fundamental developments — could set the stage for a more sustained uptrend or value recovery.
Given the cyclical nature of auto demand and external risks (global economy, competition, EV transition, regulation), the path may be choppy — but Mercedes‑Benz seems reasonably positioned compared to many peers.
✅ What to Watch / Key Catalysts
Earnings announcements & guidance, especially as global auto markets face challenges (macroeconomics, interest rates, consumer demand).
Automotive industry trends: demand for electric vehicles (EVs), regulation (EU emissions, tariffs), supply‑chain costs, raw materials.
Company’s operational execution: cost management, efficiency, new model launches, EV strategy, global sales exposure (e.g., China, U.S., Europe).
Macro environment: economic growth in key markets, currency fluctuations, inflation/interest‑rate environment, global trade conditions.
Technical confirmation: breakout from consolidation, volume trends, support/resistance tests.
This is not financial advice — only data analysis. Please consult a qualified financial professional for personalized guidance.
E.ON SE — Technical + Fundamental AnalysisFundamental Overview & Recent Performance
E.ON is a major European energy company: it focuses on energy distribution networks, infrastructure (grids), energy sales, and increasingly on sustainable energy solutions.
GlobalData
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eon.com
+2
As of 2025, the company’s market capitalization is roughly €40–48 billion (depending on exchange rate/report) which places it among the larger utilities in Europe.
Companies Market Cap
+2
eon.com
+2
For 2025 the company reaffirmed its guidance: the adjusted EBITDA target is €9.6–9.8 billion, and adjusted net income target is €2.85–3.05 billion.
Investing.com
+2
Quartr
+2
In the first 9 months of 2025, adjusted EBITDA was €7.4 billion (up ~10% YoY) and adjusted net income rose by ~4% to €2.3 billion.
SolarQuarter
+2
Ad Hoc News
+2
Investment plans remain strong. From 2024–2028, E.ON expects to invest around €43 billion, with a large portion (€35 bn) going into its Energy Networks business.
eon.com
+2
eon.com
+2
The company’s dividend history shows a steady increase in annual dividend: for 2025 the dividend is €0.55 per share — last years were €0.53 (2024), €0.51 (2023), etc. Dividend yield is around 3.5%–4%, depending on price.
StockAnalysis
+1
➡️ Interpretation (Fundamental Strengths):
E.ON appears financially healthy: increasing EBITDA and net income, stable dividend policy, and large ongoing investments — especially in grid infrastructure and energy transition.
Its focus on networks/infrastructure (rather than riskier commodity‑based energy retail) provides more stable cash-flows.
GlobalData
+2
Quartr
+2
Given Europe’s push for energy transition, upgrades to power grids, decarbonization, and electrification, E.ON’s investment‑heavy strategy might position it well for long‑term structural demand in energy infrastructure.
⚠️ Risks / Considerations:
The valuation and net debt evolution remain a key watch: increasing investments and debt must be managed carefully.
Seeking Alpha
+1
Regulatory risk — as a grid operator, returns often depend on regulation of tariffs, allowed returns, and energy policies in Germany and Europe. Changes in regulation could impact profitability.
📊 Technical Picture (Based on Your Chart + Indicators)
From your chart (daily timeframe):
The stock had a strong upward trend from mid-2022 to early‑2025, and more recently it seems to be in consolidation / range-bound around €10–11 (though your chart shows 10.76 — possibly older or another listing).
Momentum indicators:
RSI (14) is ~63–64 → not yet overbought but approaching higher zone.
Stochastic RSI is in overbought zone (K ~82, D ~86) → possible short-term overbought conditions, risk of a pullback or consolidation soon.
MACD shows a recent crossover — histogram slightly positive — but the move seems weak / indecisive.
From chart annotations you have “RsiLE” and “RsiSE” signals (buy/long entries vs exit/short entries) — recent signals seem to lean toward “long entry” (RsiLE), which suggests some bullish bias in the short/medium term.
➡️ Technical outlook: The setup suggests that the stock may be forming a base or consolidation. If it breaks out above resistance (depending on your defined resistance, perhaps near prior swing highs), there may be room for a move higher. But with oscillators somewhat stretched, a short‑term pullback or sideways action is also quite possible before a decisive breakout.
Possible scenarios:
Bullish breakout: Price breaks out of consolidation, riding on positive fundamentals + market sentiment → potential move to prior resistance zones (depending on timeframe, could be higher).
Sideways / consolidation: Price remains in range until clearer catalyst (earnings, regulatory news, broader energy/commodity sentiment) emerges.
Short-term correction: Given overbought Stochastic‑RSI, a minor pullback (or test of support) could occur before resuming upward move.
🧮 Combined View & What to Watch
Strengths (Fundamental) Technical Signals / Cautions
Strong 2025 earnings growth (EBITDA & Net Income increasing)
SolarQuarter
+1
Overbought in Stochastic‑RSI — risk of short-term pullback
Substantial capex and investment plans for energy networks & infrastructure (long-term structural play)
eon.com
+2
eon.com
+2
Recent chart shows consolidation — trend not clearly upward yet
Stable dividend history, decent yield ~3–4%
StockAnalysis
+1
Momentum (MACD) is weak — needs stronger confirmation for upmove
Operating in essential utility/energy infrastructure business — somewhat defensive Regulatory/policy risk: energy‑market & grid regulation in Europe must be watched
Key catalysts to watch for future direction:
Execution of E.ON’s investment program (especially grid upgrades, energy networks) and how that impacts future EBITDA and cash flows.
Regulatory developments regarding energy tariffs, grid rates, returns on infrastructure investment in Germany/Europe.
Macro developments: energy demand, European energy transition policies, inflation/interest‑rate environment (affecting CAPEX costs & financing).
Technical breakout or failure: if price breaks convincingly above consolidation range, or falls below key supports.
🧠 My View (Neutral-to-Cautiously Optimistic — Not a Recommendation)
Given the combination of solid fundamentals (earnings growth, capex/investment strategy, dividend) + reasonable technical setup (though with some overbought signals), E.ON SE appears as a company with long-term structural potential, particularly as Europe transitions toward greener, more robust energy infrastructure.
In the short-to-medium term, price action may be choppy: likely consolidation or mild pullbacks before a clearer breakout. But over a multi‑year horizon, the strong investment and essential‑services nature of the business provide a supportive backdrop.
This is not financial advice — only data analysis. Please consult a qualified financial professional for personalized guidance.
Fluor Corporation (FLR) – Full Technical & Fundamental AnalysisI. Technical Analysis
The chart shows a combination of Fibonacci retracements, an ascending support trendline, a descending resistance trendline, MACD+RSI, and Stochastic RSI. Here is the complete breakdown:
🔍 1. Price Structure & Trend
✔️ Ascending Triangle / Rising Support
FLR has created a series of higher lows since the $26.70 bottom, forming a strong rising trendline.
Simultaneously, multiple lower highs form a descending resistance, creating a wedge-like consolidation.
➡️ This signals price compression — a breakout is coming.
🔍 2. Fibonacci Key Levels
Using the swing low $26.70 and swing high $49.64, important levels include:
0.382 → $40.87 (major resistance)
0.50 → $38.17 (current barrier zone)
0.618 → $35.21 (major support)
0.786 → $32.01 (deep support)
✔️ Current price is near $37.23
Price sits between 0.50 and 0.618, a typical reversal zone in strong trends.
🔍 3. Support & Resistance
Support Levels
$35.00–$35.20 (0.618 Fibonacci)
Ascending trendline
Below $35, next support is $32.
Resistance Levels
$38.17 – $40.87
Descending trendline
Above $44, final resistance is $49.64 (previous high)
📈 4. MACD+RSI Indicator
MACD is turning bullish, with the MACD line curving upward.
Histogram turning green.
Momentum begins shifting toward buyers.
This supports the possibility of a medium-term upward swing.
📉 5. Stochastic RSI
Currently rising toward the upper region (60–70).
Shows short-term bullish momentum.
Once above 90, a short-term pullback becomes possible.
⭐ 6. Technical Summary
Bullish Scenario
If FLR breaks above $38.17, targets are:
$40.87
$44.22
$49.64
Bearish Scenario
If FLR loses $35, price may fall to:
$32.01
A break below $32 invalidates the bullish structure.
Overall Technical Bias:
➡️ Neutral to Bullish, with confirmation needed above $38.17.
II. Fundamental Analysis
Here are the most recent reliable fundamental metrics available, including EPS and P/E as requested.
🧩 1. EPS & P/E (Latest Available)
Metric Value Interpretation
EPS (TTM) ≈ $18–$20 per share Extremely high relative to price, partly due to non-recurring gains
P/E Ratio (TTM) ≈ 2.3× Very low; signals undervaluation or temporarily inflated earnings
Forward P/E ≈ 19–20× Indicates expected normalization of earnings in coming quarters
👉 What this means
A very low P/E usually attracts value investors,
BUT the large gap between P/E (2.3×) and forward P/E (~20×) indicates that recent EPS includes one-time gains or unusually strong project profits.
Analysts expect more normal (lower) earnings going forward, which is why forward valuation is much higher.
📈 2. Revenue & Earnings Momentum
Fluor has reported:
Strong year-over-year revenue growth
Improving profitability after years of restructuring
Solid performance in infrastructure, LNG, chemicals, and government contracts
Backlog has been growing, indicating stable revenue visibility.
💰 3. Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
Operating cash flow has strengthened significantly.
Long-term debt levels have declined, improving leverage and financial stability.
Liquidity remains solid, supporting ongoing project execution.
⚙️ 4. Growth Catalysts
LNG megaprojects in the U.S. and Middle East
Government and defense contracts
CHIPS Act & clean energy construction
Mining & industrial expansion projects
Nuclear and carbon reduction infrastructure
These trends support strong multi-year demand for EPC services.
⚠️ 5. Key Risks
Project execution risk (cost overruns can impact earnings)
Highly cyclical industry
Backlog dependency on large, long-term contracts
Global economic slowdown could reduce project awards
⭐ III. Combined Technical + Fundamental Outlook
✔️ Technical signals trending bullish (MACD recovery, strong support at $35, bullish reversal zone).
✔️ Fundamentals improving, but EPS is inflated and future P/E is much higher.
🎯 Overall Outlook:
Bullish potential, but confirmation is needed above $38.17 for continuation toward $41 → $44 → $49.
Long-term investors should consider:
Strong fundamentals
Attractive low current P/E
But also forward valuation risk
Short-term traders should watch:
Trendline support
MACD confirmation
Stochastic RSI reaching overbought
⚠️ Disclaimer (as you requested):
This analysis reflects my personal view only. I take no responsibility for your buy or sell decisions.
Siemens AG (1D) – Full Technical Analysis + Fundamental Analysis🔍 1. Price Action & Trend Structure
✔️ Strong long-term uptrend inside a rising channel
Siemens has been moving within a well-defined ascending channel for several years.
The price consistently respects both the upper resistance line and the lower support line of this channel.
Every pullback to the bottom of the channel has historically led to a new bullish wave.
✔️ Price currently near the upper-mid region of the channel
This suggests:
The trend is still healthy and bullish
But the stock is not at an ideal low-risk buy zone
Strongest buy opportunities typically occur near the channel’s lower boundary
✔️ Key support zone: ~138 €
This level, marked on the chart, acted as:
Major support during corrections
A psychological price floor
If the stock ever returns to this zone, it would be considered a high-value demand area.
🔍 2. MACD + RSI Combined Indicator
✔️ MACD is recovering from a recent bearish phase
The histogram is transitioning from negative toward zero → decreasing selling pressure
MACD and Signal lines are preparing for a possible bullish crossover
This usually indicates early momentum shift toward buyers
⚠️ However:
The momentum is not strongly bullish yet.
The MACD must cross above the Signal line with histogram turning positive for a confirmed buy signal.
➡️ We are currently in a transition phase, not a confirmed uptrend continuation.
🔍 3. Stochastic RSI (Stoch RSI)
✔️ Stoch RSI is near overbought levels (above 90)
This indicates:
A strong recent upward bounce
Potential for short-term pullback or consolidation
However, in strong long-term trends (like Siemens), Stoch RSI can stay overbought for extended periods without triggering a reversal.
✔️ Overall message from Stoch RSI:
Momentum is strong short term, but buying at this level carries increased risk of near-term correction.
🔍 4. Key Observations from RSI Strategy Buy/Sell Signals
The chart shows multiple automated RSI-based Buy (LE) and Sell (SE) signals.
Pattern:
Buy signals occur near channel support → extremely profitable historically
Sell signals occur near channel resistance → reliable for trimming or exiting
Right now:
Price is closer to the upper-middle zone, not near support
Therefore, no strong Buy signal is present
🔥 5. Bullish & Bearish Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Primary Trend)
If price continues respecting the channel:
Next target: 240–250 € range
Break above 250 € → continuation toward 270–280 €, the projected top of the channel
This aligns with the stock’s strong long-term bullish structure.
Bearish Scenario (Less likely but important)
If momentum weakens and price breaks below the mid-channel line:
First support: 210 €
Major support: 138 € zone (historically very strong)
A break below 138 € would invalidate the rising channel, but this has a low probability given historical behavior.
⭐ Final Summary
Siemens remains in a strong multi-year uptrend inside a clean ascending channel.
MACD shows early signs of bullish momentum returning, but not confirmed yet.
Stoch RSI is overbought, signaling the possibility of a short-term pullback.
Price is not at the channel bottom, meaning risk is higher for new entries at current levels.
📌 Best buying opportunities historically occur at the channel’s lower boundary.
We are currently in the mid-to-upper area, which is not optimal for low-risk entry.
If you want, I can also provide:
✔ Entry/exit points
✔ Risk management plan
✔ Weekly & monthly timeframe confirmation
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Fundamental Analysis
🧾 1. Business & Structural Drivers
Siemens AG is a diversified industrial and technology group, with core businesses in:
Digital Industries (automation, industrial software)
Smart Infrastructure (building technologies, power distribution)
Mobility (rail and transportation solutions)
Management highlights electrification, transportation and industrial software as the main long-term growth drivers, with continued strong demand in these areas even while the automation environment has been more challenging.
Siemens
The company is also pushing its “ONE Tech Company” strategy – integrating hardware, software and services to lock in customers and grow recurring revenues.
Siemens
+1
📈 2. Recent Financial Performance
FY 2024 (year ended 30 Sept 2024)
Revenue: €75.9 billion, +3% year-on-year.
Net income: €9.0 billion – a record high at that time.
Free cash flow: €9.5 billion, described by management as “excellent”.
Siemens
+2
Siemens Press
+2
Demand remained strong in electrification, transport and industrial software, helping offset a tougher cycle in automation.
Siemens
FY 2025 (latest full year)
For fiscal 2025 (ended Sept 2025), Siemens extended this growth trend:
Q1 2025: revenue €18.4 bn (+3%); book-to-bill 1.09.
Siemens Press
Q2 2025: revenue €19.8 bn (+7%); orders up 10% to €21.6 bn; book-to-bill 1.10.
Siemens Press
Q4 2025: revenue €21.4 bn (+6% comparable); book-to-bill 1.02.
Siemens Press
+1
For the full fiscal 2025 year:
Net income: ~€10.4 billion, another all-time high (third year in a row).
EPS pre PPA: €12.95; excluding one-off gains, EPS pre PPA was ~€10.71 – in line with guidance (€10.40–11.00).
Siemens Press
+1
There was an earnings miss versus analyst expectations in Q4 2025 (EPS and revenue came in slightly below forecasts, which caused a short-term share price drop), but underlying growth remained solid.
Investing.com
Outlook
For fiscal 2026, Siemens guides for:
Comparable revenue growth: 6–8%
Book-to-bill: >1
EPS pre PPA: €10.40–11.00 (excluding special items).
Siemens
This shows management still expects profitable growth despite macro uncertainty and FX headwinds.
💰 3. Balance Sheet, Cash & Dividend
Free cash flow: around €9.5 bn in FY 2024 (and similarly strong in 2025), giving the company a lot of flexibility for dividends, buybacks and investment.
Siemens Press
+1
Net debt: Total net debt around €34.8 bn, but industrial net debt only about €7.9 bn, down ~27% vs 2022, with a solid liquidity position.
Creditreform Rating
Dividend: Proposed/paid dividend of €5.20 per share, with a yield roughly in the 2–3% range and a payout ratio around 40–45%.
Siemens Press
+2
Siemens
+2
Rating agencies and independent analysts generally view Siemens’ balance sheet as strong and conservative, which supports continued investment and shareholder returns.
Siemens
+1
📊 4. Valuation
Recent data show:
Trailing P/E: around 23–24x earnings.
Wisesheets
Forward estimates (2026–2027) imply a P/E in the low-20s and a dividend yield around 2.4–2.6%.
MarketScreener
Profit margin around 12% and decent returns on equity and invested capital compared with peers.
Yahoo Finance
+1
So the stock is not cheap, but for a high-quality, diversified industrial with strong cash generation and structural growth themes, the valuation is in a reasonable premium range rather than “bubble” territory.
⚙️ 5. Key Fundamental Positives
Structural tailwinds in electrification, grid upgrades, automation, digitalization and rail transport.
Siemens
+1
Consistent revenue and order growth with book-to-bill >1, showing a healthy pipeline.
Siemens Press
+2
Siemens Press
+2
Excellent free cash flow and disciplined capital allocation (dividends, buybacks, targeted acquisitions).
Siemens Press
+1
Strong balance sheet with manageable industrial net debt and solid credit ratings.
Creditreform Rating
+1
⚠️ 6. Main Risks & Caveats
Cyclical exposure: Parts of the business (especially automation) are sensitive to global industrial cycles and capex spending.
Siemens
Execution & portfolio risk: Strategy depends on integrating software, services and hardware; missteps in large projects (Mobility, infrastructure) or M&A could pressure margins.
FX and macro headwinds: Management already cites currency effects as a drag on EPS for 2026.
Siemens
Valuation risk: With a P/E in the 20s, any disappointment (like the recent Q4 2025 earnings miss) can trigger sharp short-term drawdowns.
Investing.com
+1
🧩 7. How This Fits Your Technical View
Technical picture: clear long-term uptrend in a rising channel, but currently not at the lower boundary (not a “deep value” technical entry).
Fundamentals: confirm Siemens as a high-quality, cash-generative company with solid growth guidance and a shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy.
So from a combined technical + fundamental perspective:
Long-term investors might see Siemens as a strong compounder but may prefer to buy on pullbacks toward the lower part of the channel to improve risk/reward.
Short- to medium-term traders should still respect the overbought readings and channel resistance, even though the underlying business is fundamentally strong.
⚠️ Disclaimer (as you requested)
This fundamental and technical analysis reflects only my personal view based on publicly available information. I take no responsibility for any of your buy or sell decisions.






















