Gold Bulls Eye Fresh Highs Amid Fed Cut Bets 📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) is attempting to reclaim upside momentum after bouncing from the $3,632–$3,636 support zone. Price broke above the descending trendline, signalling potential bullish continuation if sustained above the support. Key resistance lies at $3,655–$3,658, aligning with prior rejection levels.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,633–$3,636 (Support retest zone)
Stop Loss: $3,632
Take Profit: $3,655 / $3,658
Risk-Reward Ratio (R:R): ~1 : 4.95
🌍 Macro Background
Gold edged lower to $3,630 earlier in the Asian session as profit-taking and a stronger USD weighed on the metal. However, Fed rate cut expectations remain strong, with markets fully pricing in a 25bps cut in September and Barclays projecting three consecutive cuts by year-end. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continue to underpin safe-haven demand — Poland intercepting Russian drones and Israel’s strike on Doha highlight rising risks. This backdrop suggests dips could remain well-supported as traders await the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for further cues.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $3,655 / $3,658
Support: $3,633 / $3,636
Major Support Zone: $3,620
📝 Trade Summary
Gold remains underpinned by Fed easing expectations and geopolitical risks despite short-term profit-taking. The break above the trendline favours buying dips, with upside potential toward $3,655–$3,658. However, failure to hold $3,632 may trigger a retest of $3,620.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Xauusdidea
XAUUSD – CPI Data Breakdown & Professional Insight | MMFLOW 🚀 XAUUSD – CPI Data Breakdown & Professional Insight | MMFLOW TRADING
📊 CPI Results (September)
Core CPI m/m: 0.3% (In line with forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.3%)
CPI m/m: 0.4% (Above forecast: 0.3%, previous: 0.2%)
CPI y/y: 2.9% (In line with forecast: 2.9%, previous: 2.7%)
📈 MMFLOW Insight – What This Means for Gold (XAUUSD)
1️⃣ Headline CPI Beat Signals Sticky Inflation
The uptick to 0.4% m/m surprised markets and indicates inflationary pressures are not cooling as much as expected.
This strengthens USD short-term and pushes Treasury yields higher. The initial reaction is selling pressure on gold as traders price in a more hawkish Fed stance.
2️⃣ Core CPI Stability Offers Mixed Sentiment
Core CPI staying flat at 0.3% suggests underlying price pressures remain steady.
This tempers extreme hawkish expectations, leaving room for gold to recover after initial volatility, especially if yields stabilize.
3️⃣ Medium-Term Implications
Despite today’s stronger headline CPI, inflation remains on a downtrend y/y (2.9%), supporting the broader narrative of a Fed pivot in the coming months.
Central banks (esp. PBoC & EM countries) continue to accumulate gold, which underpins long-term bullish bias.
🔑 Technical Reaction Zones (M15/M30)
Resistance: 3,648 – 3,654 (Trendline/React FIB)
Support / Liquidity Zones:
• 3,624.33 – Key Zone Support BUY
• 3,612.54 – CP/React Zone FIB
• 3,599.23 – Major BUY Zone
🛠 Trading Approach After CPI
Expect whipsaw price action: an initial spike lower (USD strength) followed by potential recovery if buyers defend liquidity zones.
SELL Scalp: Only on strong rejection from 3,648–3,654 with tight SL.
BUY Opportunity: Watch for confirmed bounce signals at 3,624 / 3,612 / 3,599.
Stay nimble: CPI-induced volatility can sweep both sides before choosing direction.
✅ Summary
The hotter CPI print adds near-term pressure to gold, but the overall structure and central bank demand remain supportive. Expect liquidity sweeps before a potential bullish continuation.
👉 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for real-time execution updates, liquidity setups, and professional market insights during this volatile post-CPI session.
Focus on CPI, beware of unexpected surprisesThe market focuses on CPI data, which is unlikely to fluctuate significantly in the short term. Although it has fallen below the recent support of 3620, buying below is still strong, so don't chase the short position. From the news and other recent data, it can be seen that the weak US employment data has suppressed the economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The current market basically assumes that 25 basis points has become a reality, so the possibility of positive CPI data is relatively high.
If the CPI data is positive for gold, it will first test the resistance level of 3640-3660. If the data triggers a strong rally, gold could potentially reach new highs, aiming for 3690-3700.
However, the previous NFP data was also crucial, but the result was a surprise. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of a similar surprise with the CPI data. If the CPI data is bearish for gold, it will first test 3600 below. Once it falls below 3600, it will go to 3580.
The above content is just an analysis of the possible trend of gold, which you can refer to. If the European session retreats again to 3620-3610 without breaking, you can try to go long with a light position, and the ideal target is 3640-3660. If it falls below 3600, SL will be adjusted in time.
ANFIBO | I think XAUUSD on 11.10.2025 ???Well, today's gold price has broken the current H1 uptrend line, the price is currently around 3620, and is still holding on to the H4 uptrend line. We will need to pay attention to the following important resistance and support zones:
>> SELL SCALP: around 3670, SL 3677, TP 3600 - 3575
>> BUY SCALP: around 3580, SL 3570, TP 3665
>>> SWING BUY: 3560 - 3570, SL 3550, TP 3620 - 3675 - 3700 - OPEN
>>> SWING SELL: 3790 - 3801, SL 2820, TP 3700 - 3570 - 3450 - OPEN
Have a nice day guys ;)
GOLD Very Bullish , Can We Buy Again And Get 200 Pips ?Here is My 15 Mins Gold Chart , and here is my opinion , we finally above 3639.00 and we have a 4H Candle closure above it and we have a Perfect Breakout and this give us a very good confirmation ,and also we have a reversal pattern and the price closed above neckline , so we have a good confirmation now to can buy from 3639.00 when the price back to retest it , we need the price to go back and retest it and give us a good bullish price action and then we can enter , we can targeting 100 to 200 pips . if we have a daily closure below this area this mean this idea will not be valid anymore .
Reasons To Enter :
1- Perfect Touch For The Area .
2- Clear Bullish Price Action .
3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bullish P.A .
4- The Price Take The Last High .
5- Perfect 15 Mins Closure .
6- Reversal Pattern .
Gold on the Edge: Risk-On Mood Pressures Bulls Ahead of CPI🔎 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating between $3,624 minor support and $3,644 major resistance. The chart shows two possible pathways:
Bullish scenario: A breakout above $3,640–$3,642 resistance zone may trigger momentum toward $3,660–$3,672.
Bearish scenario: Failure to hold $3,624 support could lead to a sharper drop toward the broader $3,600–$3,598 support zone.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry (Long): Above $3,642 on breakout confirmation
Stop Loss: Below $3,640
Take Profit: $3,660–$3,672
Entry (Short): On rejection at $3,630–$3,633 or a clean break below $3,624
Stop Loss: Above $3,633
Take Profit: $3,600–$3,598
🌍 Macro Background
Gold price action is highly sensitive ahead of the U.S. CPI release. A softer print could reinforce Fed rate cut bets, weaken the dollar, and fuel upside for gold. Conversely, hotter-than-expected CPI may push the USD higher and pressure bullion lower. Geopolitical tensions (Poland drone incident, Middle East escalation) remain supportive for safe-haven demand, limiting downside risk.
📌 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $3,640 / $3,642
Support: $3,624 / $3,600
📝 Trade Summary
Gold sits at a pivotal zone, awaiting a CPI-driven breakout. Bulls need to reclaim $3,642–$3,644 to push higher, while bears will aim to break $3,624 to extend the correction.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
XAUUSD Bearish Reversal Potential from Local Highs?Price has shown a strong bullish run but is now hitting a confluence of key resistance levels, suggesting a possible short-term reversal.
Here are the key bearish confluences:
📉 Fibonacci Retracement Resistance:
Price rejected the 61.8% retracement (from a prior high), around 3645.49, a classic reversal level.
📊 Overextended Trend:
Steep rise through ascending Gann fan levels — typically unsustainable without a correction.
☁️ Ichimoku Cloud Rejection Zone:
Price touching the edge of the projected cloud — often a resistance area in bullish extensions.
🚩 Bearish Candlestick Formation:
Early signs of a reversal candlestick forming near resistance.
🎯 Fibonacci Downside Targets:
Target 1: 3653.39 (38.2% retracement)
Target 2: 3632.70 (100% retracement – measured move completion)
Target 3: 3609.60 (previous demand zone + possible fib cluster)
Entry Zone: 3645 - 3655
Target Zone: 3653 → 3632 → 3609
Invalidation: Break and close above 3662
Gold Bulls vs Bears! Who Will Win the $XAUUSD Battle?🏆 "The Golden Layer Cake Strategy" - XAU/USD Bullish Swing Plan 🎯
✨ Calling all savvy traders! ✨
Ready to layer into a potential Gold breakout? This systematic approach is designed to capitalize on bullish momentum while managing risk through strategic entry layers.
Here’s the detailed blueprint: 📜
🔑 Key Details:
Asset: XAU/USD (Gold)
Bias: Bullish
Style: Swing Trading / Position Building
Strategy: Multi-Layer Limit Order Entry
⚡ Entry Strategy (The Layering Method):
To optimize your average entry price, consider using multiple BUY LIMIT orders at key support levels:
Layer 1: 3420.00
Layer 2: 3440.00
Layer 3: 3460.00
Layer 4: 3480.00
You can adjust the number of layers and prices based on your personal risk management and market conditions.
🛑 Stop Loss:
A conservative stop loss can be placed below a significant support zone at 3370.00.
Disclaimer: Always adjust your stop loss based on your individual risk tolerance, account size, and trading strategy.
🎯 Take Profit:
We are targeting a strong resistance zone around 3600.00. A more ambitious target sits at 3650.00 for those who wish to trail their stops. Secure profits on the way up!
📊 Market Context & Rationale:
This plan is based on identifying potential value areas on the pullback for a continued bullish move. The layered entry allows us to build a position gracefully without chasing the market.
📊 XAU/USD Real-Time Data Report
🤝 Retail & Institutional Sentiment
Retail Traders
Long (Bullish): 28% 😊
Short (Bearish): 72% 😟
Institutional Traders
Bullish positions increasing, showing confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset. 🏦
😨💸 Fear & Greed Index
Mood: Neutral → leaning Greedy
Markets expect Fed rate cuts, boosting gold demand.
🌍 Fundamental Score
Rating: 7/10 (Positive)
Key Drivers:
Weakening US Dollar from expected Fed cuts 📉
Geopolitical tensions supporting safe-haven demand ⚠️
Ongoing central bank gold buying 🏦
📈 Macro Score
Rating: 6.5/10 (Moderately Bullish)
Factors:
High probability of US rate cut in September (~85%) 📅
Rising bond yields may cap gains 📈
Global economic uncertainty 🌎
🐂🐻 Overall Market Outlook
Bias: Bullish (Long) 🚀
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, supported by fundamentals, macro drivers, and institutional flows.
✨ Summary
Gold is bullish 📈 with strong support from fundamentals and macro conditions. Retail traders lean bearish 😟, but institutions and sentiment favor upward momentum. Any dips are seen as buying opportunities 🤑
⚠️ Risk Warning & Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR).
High-impact news events can cause increased volatility—manage your risk accordingly.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Only risk capital you are willing to lose.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Eyes $3,650 Ahead of CPI 📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) may rebound from the support zone $3,627–3,630, and buyers are gradually regaining control. Price action now challenges the resistance zone $3,642–3,647, with a breakout paving the way toward $3,650+.
🎯 Trade Setup (15M Chart)
Entry (Long): $3,630–$3,627
Stop Loss: $3,625
Take Profit: $3,642 / $3,645
🌐 Macro Background
Gold stays supported by Fed rate cut bets, a weaker USD, and geopolitical tensions. US August PPI came in softer, reinforcing rate cut expectations ahead of Thursday’s CPI release (forecast 2.9% headline / 3.1% core). Meanwhile, safe-haven demand is lifted by Poland shooting down Russian drones and Israel’s Doha strikes. While event risk remains, the broader backdrop continues to favour gold upside momentum.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $3,642 / $3,645 / $3,650
Support: $3,630 / $3,627
📌 Trade Summary
Gold maintains bullish traction above $3,630, with scope for a move toward $3,642–$3,645, though traders should stay cautious ahead of US CPI.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – September 10, 2025🌀
🔹 Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Momentum is showing signs of a bearish reversal → the market may enter a corrective decline, possibly lasting through the end of this week.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is turning upward → a short-term recovery could appear today, pushing the indicator into the overbought zone.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is already in the overbought area and turning down → a short-term decline is likely.
________________________________________
🔹 Wave Structure
• D1: Price has reached the projected target of wave iii (black). With D1 momentum reversing downward, wave iv (black) may be forming. Since wave ii (black) was relatively long, there is a possibility that wave iv (black) could unfold more quickly.
• H4: Yesterday’s decline may suggest that wave v (purple) has temporarily completed. If this scenario plays out, price could move into a corrective phase toward the wave iv target area. The correction may develop as a Zigzag, Flat, or Triangle.
• H1: Price is consolidating within the liquidity zone 3657 – 3631. With H4 momentum hinting at correction, one possible scenario is sideways movement here to complete wave B, followed by a decline into wave C.
o If price breaks and closes below 3631 → the liquidity zone at 3595 may act as the next support.
o Potential targets for wave C:
3595 (aligned with 23.8% Fibonacci retracement).
Or 3556 – 3528 (aligned with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement).
________________________________________
🔹 Trade Scenarios (for reference only)
• Sell Zone: 3657 – 3659
o SL: 3667
o TP1: 3631
• Buy Zone 1: 3596 – 3594
o SL: 3585
o TP1: 3669
• Buy Zone 2: 3557 – 3555
o SL: 3547
o TP1: 3597
📌 Note: The Sell setup at 3657 should be considered with small position size as it goes against the main trend. If price reaches 3595, this Sell scenario could lose validity.
XAUUSD – 1H | OB / POC / Golden Zone Scenarios Price now: 3647
📍 Key Levels:
🟦 1H FVG / Support: 3610 – 3600
🟩 Developing POC Daily: 3565 – 3550
🟨 Golden Daily Zone: 3500 – 3480
Scenario 1 – Shallow Pullback (Most bullish):
If price holds 3610–3600, I’ll look for long setups targeting 3680 – 3700.
Invalidation: clean 1H close below 3600.
Scenario 2 – Deeper Retest:
Break below 3600 brings us toward the 3565–3550 POC Daily zone.
From there, bullish CHoCH/BOS on LTF (3–5m) will be my entry trigger.
Target remains 3640 – 3680.
Scenario 3 – Deep Liquidity Sweep:
If even POC Daily fails, last strong buy zone sits at 3500–3480 Golden Daily.
This level aligns with previous demand and could be the launchpad for a new rally toward 3700+.
Execution: I won’t enter blindly – waiting for confirmation in 3–5m TF.
📊 ProfitaminFX | Gold, BTC & EUR/USD
📚 Daily setups & educational trades
A Healthy Market Breathes. Gold Hasn’t Exhaled Yet.I remain bullish on Gold overall — that’s not in question.
On 24 August, I even shared a complete cross-market outlook arguing that acceleration to the upside could be the next big move. And indeed, we got it.
But here’s the paradox of markets: sometimes, the stronger the rally, the more fragile it becomes.
________________________________________
Why I Warned About a Steep Correction
• Yesterday, I flagged the risk of a sharp pullback. My stop loss was triggered, yes, but my conviction hasn’t changed. If anything, the higher Gold pushes, the more probable and violent the correction could be.
• The daily chart says it all: since the local bottom around 3300, Gold has moved almost vertically higher.
• From 26 August onward, with the sole exception of the 4 September red candle, every single day closed green — and not just small gains, but +1% or more.
This type of move is powerful, but also unsustainable.
________________________________________
Market Psychology at Work
Markets move in cycles of fear and greed, tension and release. A one-sided move — especially a vertical one — compresses tension like a coiled spring. Traders get trapped:
• Late buyers rush in from FOMO, convinced “it will never stop going up.”
• Sellers get squeezed, forced to cover, adding fuel to the fire.
• But eventually, when there’s no one left to buy at higher prices, even a small wave of selling can cascade into a steep correction.
This is why not even Bitcoin, in its glory days, could sustain vertical rises for long. The pattern was always the same: euphoric rise → brutal drop . Gold is no different.
________________________________________
Where We Stand Now
• At the time of writing, Gold trades at 3647, after touching 3660 and marking a new ATH.
• Is this the local top? Hard to say with certainty. But in my book, until we see a strong correction, there is no valid buy trade here.
________________________________________
My Trading Plan
Today, I will look to sell again. Not because I doubt the long-term bullish trend, but because the short-term imbalance is glaring.
A healthy market breathes, and Gold hasn’t exhaled yet.
🚀 Long term: bullish.
⚠️ Short term: vulnerable.
🎯 Until a correction resets the board, my play is on the short side.
Gold Price Analysis (XAU/USD): Key Levels and Market OutlookThe price of Gold (XAU/USD) has shown strong upward momentum in recent sessions, crossing above the $3,600 mark and briefly touching the $3,674 level, which represents a strong bullish push supported by significant trading volume (over 581K at that peak).
Current Market Overview
Current Price: $3,646.74 (as of the latest 4H candle)
Resistance Level: $3,674 (recent swing high)
Support Level: $3,640 (recent pullback low)
RSI Indicator: Around mid-range (60), showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
The Zig Zag indicator highlights the recent correction after reaching $3,674, where the price retraced slightly to $3,640 before consolidating. The market now trades sideways between these two levels, indicating a short-term indecision.
1. Resistance Zone:
Gold needs to break and sustain above $3,674 to confirm the continuation of the bullish trend. If this happens, the next target could be around $3,700 – $3,750.
2. Support Zone:
On the downside, if the price fails to hold the $3,640 level, a deeper correction towards $3,600 – $3,550 cannot be ruled out.
3. Momentum Indicators:
The RSI is currently neutral, suggesting room for both upside and downside moves. Traders should watch for RSI crossing above 70 (bullish continuation) or dropping below 50 (bearish pressure).
Trading Strategy
Bullish Bias: If Gold holds above $3,640 and breaks $3,674, traders may look for long positions targeting $3,700 and above.
Bearish Bias: A break below $3,640 could trigger short positions, with downside targets near $3,600 and $3,550.
Conclusion
Gold remains in a bullish structure but faces short-term resistance at $3,674. Traders should watch closely for a breakout or breakdown from this consolidation range to determine the next major move.
Gold Trade Set Up Sep 10 2025OANDA:XAUUSD
www.tradingview.com
Price is currently making LH/LL on the 1h so id want to see how price reacts at the current key level. If it hold and can make internal structure on the 5m i will look for buys back to PDH but if price closes under the key level on the 15m and retest it i will look for sells towards 4h FVG
Gold Analysis – Correction Not Yet Over (IMO)Yesterday, after printing a new ATH at 3674, Gold sold off aggressively and overnight reached a low of 3620.
Now the key question: Is Gold done correcting?
👉 My answer: Not yet.
Here’s why:
1. The 550 pip drop from the top is barely scratching the surface compared to the 3500 pip rally in the last two weeks.
2. Yesterday’s daily candle is a bearish pin bar. While this pattern is weaker in strong uptrends, it can still trigger continuation.
3. Structurally, the market looks like it’s forming an ABC correction. The current rebound may be wave B, with wave C expected to target the 3570 zone.
4. Confluence supports act like magnets once corrections begin. The zone I’m watching aligns with the 23% Fibonacci retracement, which fits perfectly with the correction scenario.
📌 Trading Plan:
As long as 3675 holds, I remain bearish in the short term. The best strategy is to sell rallies against the ATH, targeting deeper retracement levels.
ANFIBO | I think XAUUSD on 09.09.2025 ???Currently, gold is moving within a clearly defined upward trend channel. Our strategy for today should focus on monitoring key resistance and support zones in order to identify potential entry points for both scalp trades and swing trades. The levels I consider noteworthy are as follows:
>> SELL SCALP: 3650 - 3660, SL 3670, TP 3600
>> BUY SCALP: 3598 - 3603, SL 3595, TP 3680 - 3690
>>> SWING BUY: 3560 - 3570, SL 3550, TP 3680 - 3690 - OPEN
>>> SWING SELL: 3790 - 3801, SL 2820, TP 3680 - 3570 - 3450 - OPEN
Have fun!!!
Gold - Buy or Sell this week??? (08-12/09)With the sustained accumulation over the past five months, gold has experienced a strong breakout from the $3,300 sideways range and reached a new all-time high around $3,600. The upward trend is clearly established. Therefore, we can consider buying and selling at the following price levels:
>>> SELL ZONE: 3684 - 3679
SL: 3689
TP: 3618 - 3596 - 3578 - 3565 - 3515
>>> BUY ZONE: 3560 - 3570
SL: 3550
TP: 3618 - 3678
Have a good day. Good luck buddies! :)
Gold Breaks $3,600/oz: Fed Rate Cut Hype & Trading Setups!Hello traders! Gold (XAU/USD) soared past $3,600/oz for the first time on Monday (08/09/2025), hitting a new all-time high as weak US jobs data cemented expectations for a Fed rate cut next week. With a 38% YTD surge following a 27% rally in 2024, gold’s unstoppable—driven by a weak USD, central bank buying, easing policies, and global uncertainty. Let’s break down today’s (09/09/2025) market and uncover trading setups! 💰
Fundamental Analysis: Why Gold’s Rally Keeps Charging? 🌟
Historic Surge: Weak US jobs data (August growth slowed, unemployment at 4.3%) has markets pricing in an 88% chance of a 0.25% rate cut and 12% for 0.5% in September, per CME FedWatch. Low rates make non-yielding gold shine! 📈
Expert Insight: Peter Grant from Zaner Metals predicts gold could hit $3,700–$3,730/oz short-term, with short pullbacks as buying opportunities. Ongoing labor market weakness and Fed easing into 2026 provide solid support.
Global Drivers: China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 10 months in August. A falling USD and 10-year Treasury yields near a 5-month low boost gold’s allure.
Key Data Ahead: Watch US PPI (10/09) and CPI (11/09) for more Fed policy clues. Geopolitical and tariff tensions further fuel gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Gold’s red-hot—can it conquer new highs?
Technical Analysis: Breakout Mode with Traps—Prioritize BUY! 📉
Gold’s relentless rally smashed through 3600, showing no signs of slowing. Keep an eye on the Fibo 2.618 level at 3685 as a potential pause point. Strong bullish momentum favors BUY setups, but beware of FVG traps from rapid surges. Focus on 3641: a break below could trigger a pullback to 3600, while holding above keeps bulls in charge, targeting 3685.
Key Resistance: 3663 - 3673 - 3685 - 3690
Key Support: 3641 - 3629 - 3596 - 3581
Trading Opportunities:
Sell Scalp: 3673 - 3675
SL: 3679
TP: 3670 - 3665 - 3660 - 3655
Sell Zone: 3684 - 3686
SL: 3694
TP: 3676 - 3666 - 3656 - 3646 - Open
Buy Scalp: 3641 - 3639
SL: 3635
TP: 3644 - 3649 - 3654 - 3659
Buy Zone: 3605 - 3603
SL: 3595
TP: 3613 - 3623 - 3633 - 3643 - Open
Gold’s in breakout territory, but traps are lurking—wait for confirmations at key levels! If supports hold, bulls could charge to 3685. 📊💡
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