Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – September 7, 2025
Momentum
• D1: Momentum is still declining → a corrective move may occur before turning bullish again.
• H4: Currently in the overbought zone → a main downward move is expected tomorrow.
• H1: About to enter the oversold zone → a short-term upward bounce may appear tomorrow morning.
Wave Structure
• D1 timeframe:
o Price is forming a 5-wave structure (i, ii, iii, iv, v) in black.
o Currently, wave iii (black) is in its final stage.
o Waves i, ii, iii were formed after a momentum cycle → the next corrective cycle will likely indicate where wave iv (black) will end.
• H4 timeframe:
o Price may be completing wave v (purple).
o Once wave v (purple) finishes → the market is expected to enter corrective wave iv (black).
• H1 timeframe:
o As in the previous plan, the ABC correction in blue looks like a 3-wave structure, but there is also the possibility of a Flat pattern forming.
o In a Flat scenario, price may break above the previous high and then reverse downward.
o Currently, price showed overlapping moves followed by a strong breakout → suggesting two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1:
o Wave v (purple) is unfolding, with price heading toward the wave v target.
o Two target zones: 3614 and 3678.
o In this case → avoid counter-trend trades, wait for corrective wave iv (black) to complete and then enter Buy positions in line with wave iii (black).
Scenario 2:
o A Flat structure is forming.
o Wait for wave C to complete wave iv (purple).
o H4 momentum supports this scenario (decline to oversold then reversal).
o Wave C targets: 3553 and 3530 → ideal Buy entry zone.
Trading Plan
1. Buy Zone 1: 3353 – 3350
o SL: 3340
o TP1: 3596
2. Buy Zone 2: 3532 – 3530
o SL: 3522
o TP1: 3552
