Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – September 16, 2025
Momentum
• D1: Momentum is currently in an uptrend, suggesting that price may continue to rise for the next 5–6 days.
• H4: Momentum is turning downward, indicating the possibility of a correction today.
• H1: Recently showed a bullish reversal signal, but now there are signs of weakening again. This suggests that the downward move on H1 may not yet be complete.
Wave Structure
• D1: Yesterday’s daily candle created a new high, which indicates that wave iv (black) has likely been completed. The market is now developing in wave v (black).
• H4: Wave iv (black) is likely finished. With H4 momentum turning lower, wave 1 of wave v (black) may already be completed, and the market is now entering a corrective phase.
• H1: Wave v (black) is unfolding into a 5-wave structure (green). Combined with weakening H4 momentum, there are two possible scenarios:
1. This is wave 4 (green), with a maximum correction level around 3662.
2. This is wave 2 of wave v (black – D1), with a potential correction target around 3657.
Since both scenarios point to a similar price zone, we select 3662–3660 as the buy entry zone.
Trading Plan
• Buy Zone: 3662 – 3660
• SL: 3650
• TP: 3698
Xauusdidea
9/16: Watch Support at 3668–3652, Resistance at 3700✍️Good morning, everyone!
Key Support: 3668–3656
Key Resistance: 3700
Yesterday, gold repeatedly tested the 3643–3648 resistance area. During the pullback, the trend support held, and after consolidating, the price broke through resistance strongly. The overall move was in line with expectations (if it can stay above 3643–3658, it may test around 3668 with a chance of setting new highs).
After yesterday’s breakout, the price is now consolidating at high levels. Whether the bullish trend can be maintained depends mainly on support in the 3668–3656 (3648–3643) area. As long as this support holds, bulls may remain in control until tomorrow’s interest rate decision, with the possibility of testing the psychological level of 3700.
During the consolidation, trading can be focused around the 3682–3662 area.
If the price breaks out, selling opportunities may appear near 3692–3702, while buying opportunities can be considered around 3648–3636.
XAU/USD Stalls Slightly above 3650 – Bulls Losing Steam?Gold printed fresh all-time highs at 3674 last week, only to reverse sharply and settle into a sideways structure between 3620–3655.
The current debate: is this simply a consolidation box that will fuel another breakout, or is the market quietly building a distribution top that could resemble a triple top pattern (if we ignore the spike to ATH)?
Technically, the momentum has clearly cooled. The 3355–3360 area continues to cap the upside, turning into a stubborn barrier that bulls haven’t been able to overcome.
From a fundamental angle, the Fed’s rate cut is already baked into the price. The focus is now on Powell’s guidance. With inflation pushing higher, a cautious and balanced tone is more likely than a dovish surprise.
Cross-checking with other pairs, XAU/EUR and XAU/GBP are already pressing their support levels. That relative weakness suggests the gold complex as a whole may be closer to a downside break than to a new leg up.
For now, I’m flat. But unless bulls regain control quickly, I’ll be watching for failed rallies after London open as potential short setups.
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 15/09/2025
1. Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Momentum is about to enter the oversold zone. At the beginning of next week (Monday), D1 may officially enter the oversold area and start reversing upward.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is also approaching the oversold zone and preparing to reverse. This opens the expectation of a bullish move within the next 1–2 sessions.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is currently declining, so there may be one more short-term drop to push H1 into oversold conditions before a potential reversal.
________________________________________
2. Wave Structure
• D1 timeframe:
Price is still within wave iv (black). In terms of time, wave ii (black) took 7 daily candles to complete. According to the principle of alternation, waves 2 and 4 often differ in nature. With D1 momentum about to reach oversold, there is a high probability that wave iv (black) is near completion.
• H4 timeframe:
Price is moving sideways, which is consistent with the characteristics of wave iv. If in the next session H4 momentum reverses upward and reaches overbought while price still fails to break above 3657, then the corrective structure may evolve into a triangle or a double three (WXY).
• H1 timeframe:
An ABC corrective structure seems completed, but instead of rallying, price continues to consolidate within the liquidity block at 3657 – 3631. This suggests a more complex structure is unfolding, either a triangle or a WXY combination.
With D1 momentum heading into oversold, the expected downside range is 3631 – 3595, which also aligns with the nearest high-liquidity zones on the chart.
________________________________________
3. Price Zones & Targets
• Breakout level:
o 3657 → A strong candle close above this level would confirm a buy signal.
• Support / Buy zones:
o 3631 – 3632 → Possible bottom of the current correction.
o 3593 – 3596 → Scenario if wave iv develops into a WXY structure.
• Wave v (black) target:
o Projection: 3709 (main target).
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4. Trading Plan
1. Buy Breakout 3657
o SL: below breakout candle
o TP: 3709
2. Buy Zone 3632 – 3630
o SL: 3622
o TP: 3709
3. Buy Zone 3596 – 3593
o SL: 3585
o TP: 3709
________________________________________
👉 Summary: Both D1 and H4 momentum are approaching oversold, signaling that wave iv (black) may soon complete. The preferred strategy is to wait for confirmation at liquidity zones (3631 – 3595), or for a strong breakout above 3657, to join the next bullish wave v (black) targeting 3709.
Daily Market Analysis of XAUUSDCurrently, XAUUSD is oscillating within the range of 3626 to 3646. Volatility is expected to remain limited until the Fed makes a decision on interest rate cuts. It is advisable to conduct relatively small-scale transactions where possible to avoid losses stemming from other unofficial news related to the policy.
Buy 3625 - 3635
TP 3645 - 3655 - 3675
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
Gold Rally Exhaustion? Bearish Confluence Builds at the TopGold has rallied strongly into the $3,660s but is now pressing against the upper boundary of a rising wedge formation. Momentum is slowing as price consolidates near recent highs, with risk of a short-term correction building.
Bearish Confluences:
Rising wedge structure, often a bearish continuation/reversal signal.
Multiple rejection candles forming near wedge resistance.
Overextension above moving averages, leaving room for mean reversion.
Fibonacci Retracement Targets (from latest swing):
Bearish Confluences:
⚠️ Rising wedge structure → often a bearish signal.
🚫 Rejection candles stacking near resistance.
📏 Overextended above moving averages = room for pullback.
Fibonacci Retracement Targets 🎯
🔹 38.2% → $3,700.79
🔹 61.8% → $3,662.47
🔹 100% → $3,600.46
A break below wedge support could drag price into these levels, with $3,600 as the big magnet 🧲
⚠️ Invalidation: A decisive breakout above $3,762 would negate the bearish scenario and reopen upside continuation.
The support is not broken,continue to go long when it falls backThe overall gold price is currently fluctuating and consolidating at a high level. Although gold has a slight correction in the Asian session this morning, it has not fallen out of the upward channel.
The market focus is still on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. In addition to this news, the fourth US-China meeting in Spain today is also worthy of our attention. If the two sides can reach a good negotiation on the tariff issue this time, then gold may fall. Otherwise, the price of gold will continue to rise.
Currently, gold has rebounded again and is consolidating around 3645. The short-term pressure from 3655-3665 is still there. If it fails to effectively break through this resistance area, then gold still has room for a short-term correction. Pay attention to the short-term support of 3635-3625 below. If the support is not broken, you can still consider going long on gold.
Gold Nears Peak: Fed Cuts & Geopolitics Spark Trades!Hello traders! Gold (XAU/USD) reversed an early Asian session dip from $3,626-$3,627 on Monday (15/09/2025), holding strong near record highs as markets price in a 100% chance of a 0.25% Fed rate cut on 17/09, with two more expected in October and December (CME FedWatch). Geopolitical tensions, from Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy to Iran’s call for Qatar to counter Israel, boost gold’s safe-haven appeal. With major central bank events looming, let’s analyze the market and find trade setups! 💰
Fundamental Analysis: Gold Shines Amid Uncertainty 🌟
Rate Cut Expectations: Weak US labor data (surging jobless claims, 911,000 jobs revised down) keeps USD near its 24/07 low and Treasury yields soft, driving gold’s 39% YTD rally. The Fed is set to cut rates three times in 2025, starting 17/09.
Geopolitical Support: Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy, US pressure on NATO for tougher Russia sanctions, and Iran’s missile proposal in Qatar ahead of the Arab-Islamic summit fuel gold’s safe-haven status.
Key Events: Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments (17/09), decisions from Bank of Canada, Bank of England (18/09), and Bank of Japan (19/09). Weak CPI and labor data suggest shallow dips—prime for buying!
Technical Analysis: Broad Sideways Consolidation – Buy Dips 📉
Gold is consolidating in a wide sideways range on M30, H1, and H2 timeframes around 3650. If rate cut news triggers a sharp drop, FVG zones (3608-3598) offer buying opportunities. Monitor volume to confirm entries and avoid liquidity traps near round levels.
Resistance: 3646 - 3655 - 3666
Support: 3623 - 3615 - 3608 - 3598
Trade Setups (Tight RR):
Buy Scalp:
Range: 3623 - 3621
SL: 3617
TP: 3626 - 3631 - 3636 - 3641
Buy Zone:
Range: 3608 - 3606
SL: 3598
TP: 3616 - 3626 - 3636 - 3646
Sell Scalp:
Range: 3654 - 3656
SL: 3660
TP: 3651 - 3646 - 3641 - 3636
Sell Zone:
Range: 3665 - 3667
SL: 3675
TP: 3657 - 3647 - 3637 - 3627
Gold holds near highs—watch for liquidity traps around Fed news! Above 3623, bulls target new highs; below, test 3608/3598. Manage risk tightly with central bank volatility ahead! Will you buy dips or sell highs? Share your strategies below! 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #RateCuts #CPI #TradingView #MarketUpdate #Forex #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #Finance #Geopolitics #CentralBanks
9/15: Ahead of Rate Decision, Market Enters ConsolidatioGood afternoon, everyone!
Key Resistance: 3643–3652
Key Support: 3633–3623 / 3616–3607
Trading Strategy
Focus on selling at highs and buying at lows within 3658–3628;
This week will be anything but calm — Wednesday’s rate decision is expected to spark another wave of volatility. Whether it turns into big profits or losses depends entirely on risk management, so make sure you’re prepared.
On the 30M chart, price remains capped below the 3643–3648 (extended to 3652–3658) resistance zone. This level is crucial:
A sustained breakout above could trigger another push toward 3668, with room for fresh highs;
Failure to break higher will likely lead to a pullback toward the 3600 area.
Regarding the FOMC decision: the market consensus is for a 25bp move. Any result above or below that would be considered a “surprise.” After the announcement, gold is more likely to follow a spike-and-reversal path — either a brief rally followed by decline, or a direct drop with a rebound later, entering a consolidation phase with a bearish tilt.
⚠️ Reminder: With such a key event ahead, keep positions light and always use stop-loss orders.
Fed rate cut undecided,small trades recommended.At present, it is in a range-bound oscillation between 3626 and 3646. There will not be much volatility before the Fed decides to cut interest rates. It is recommended to conduct relatively small transactions as much as possible to avoid losses due to the other non-official news background about the policy
Buy 3625 - 3635
TP 3645 - 3655 - 3675
Gold (XAU/USD) Forex SignalGold (XAU/USD) has been showing strong bullish momentum recently, but the latest Zig Zag pattern and RSI (Relative Strength Index) suggest a potential correction in the short term. Let’s analyze and provide a clear forex trading signal.
Market Overview
| Pair | Gold (XAU/USD) |
| -------------- | ------------------------------- |
| Current Price | \$3,680.7 |
| Trend | Bullish with minor pullback |
| Key Indicators | Zig Zag (5,10), RSI (14, close) |
| Volatility | High |
| Market Session | US Session |
Technical Analysis
Zig Zag Indicator: The last leg shows a peak around **\$3,679.3** followed by a small correction, signaling possible short-term weakness.
RSI (14): Currently near the **55 level**, coming down from overbought territory (>70). This indicates the bullish rally may be slowing, and sellers could test the downside.
Support Levels: \$3,650 – \$3,620
Resistance Levels: \$3,720 – \$3,750
Gold Trading Signal (September 14, 2025)
| Signal Type | Sell (Short-term) |
| ------------- | --------------------- |
| Entry Zone | \$3,680 – \$3,690 |
| Stop Loss | \$3,720 |
| Take Profit 1 | \$3,650 |
| Take Profit 2 | \$3,620 |
Analysis: Since RSI has cooled off from overbought levels and Zig Zag shows a minor top formation, a short-term selling opportunity is expected. However, the long-term trend remains bullish, so aggressive traders may wait for dips to re-enter long positions.
Alternate Scenario
If gold breaks above \$3,720, the bearish setup becomes invalid, and bulls may drive the price toward \$3,750 – \$3,800.
FAQs on Gold Forex Signals
Q1: Is gold still a good buy in September 2025?
Yes, gold remains in a long-term uptrend, but short-term pullbacks are expected.
Q2: What is the best strategy for XAU/USD now?
Swing traders can short near resistance with tight SL, while long-term investors can buy on dips.
Q3: Which indicators are most useful for gold trading?
RSI, Zig Zag, Moving Averages, and Fibonacci retracements work well with gold volatility.
Conclusion
Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after a strong bullish move. Short-term traders can look for sell opportunities near \$3,680 with targets at \$3,650 – \$3,620, while long-term traders should stay bullish and buy dips.
Gold Nears All-Time High: Fed Cut Hype Fuels Trade Setups!Hello traders! Gold (XAU/USD) rose 0.4% on Friday (12/09/2025), closing at $3,648.55/oz, near its all-time high of $3,673.95/oz (09/09). Up 1.7% this week, marking its fourth consecutive weekly gain, gold is driven by a weakening US labor market, reinforcing expectations for the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025 on 17/09. Yesterday’s CPI and Jobless Claims showed inflation rising at its fastest in 7 months, but weak labor data dominates rate cut bets. Let’s analyze today’s market and find trade setups! 💰
Fundamental Analysis: Gold Thrives in Low-Rate Environment 🌟
Rate Cut Expectations: Weak US labor data (surging jobless claims, 911,000 jobs revised down) and prior weak PPI push markets to 100% odds of a 0.25% Fed rate cut, with lower odds for 0.5% (CME FedWatch). Low rates ease pressure on USD and Treasuries, boosting non-yielding gold.
Global Support: Gold’s 39% YTD surge is fueled by a weak USD, China’s 10-month gold buying streak, and global uncertainty. China’s move to simplify gold import regulations signals rising demand.
Key Focus: CPI (11/09) showed rising inflation, but labor weakness prioritizes Fed easing. Barring shocks (e.g., Trump tariffs), gold won’t drop sharply—dips are buying opportunities!
Technical Analysis: Consolidation Near Highs – Favor Buying Dips 📉
Gold is consolidating around the Fibonacci 2.618 (3650), with wide sideways action on the weekly chart, closing below 3650 as expected. It’s unclear if a deeper correction looms or if the uptrend continues, but liquidity zones at 359x and 354x are prime for buying, while round levels like 370x are ideal for selling if the rally persists. Watch volume for reversal or rejection signals.
Resistance: 3655 - 3684 - 3694 - 3704
Support: 3621 - 3595 - 3582 - 3559 - 3545
Trade Setups (Tight RR):
Buy Zone: 3582 - 3580 (SL: 3572; TP: 3590 - 3600 - 3610 - 3640) – Long-term buy on deep dips.
Buy Zone: 3546 - 3544 (SL: 3536; TP: 3554 - 3564 - 3574 - 3594) – Buy at strong support.
Sell Zone: 3703 - 3705 (SL: 3713; TP: 3695 - 3685 - 3675 - 3665) – Sell at round levels if rally continues.
Gold is consolidating near highs—watch for liquidity traps! Above 3621, bulls target new highs; below, test 359x/354x. Manage risk tightly ahead of Fed volatility! Will you buy dips or sell highs? Share your strategies below! 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #CPI #TradingView #MarketUpdate #Forex #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #Finance #USInflation #RateCuts #CentralBanks
XAUUSD/GOLD Daily Sell Projection (13.09.25)📌 Chart Overview
Pair: XAUUSD / Gold Spot vs USD
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Projection: Sell Setup
🔹 Key Technical Zones
Major Resistance Zone
Around 3,696 – 3,680 level.
Confluence with trendline resistance.
Resistance Levels
R1: Near 3,650.
R2: Near 3,696.
Major Support Levels
S1: ~3,600.
S2: ~3,579 – 3,580.
🔹 Bearish Signals
Price has touched major resistance & trendline (marked “OBEY”).
Increase in seller dominance (demonetization of buyers visible).
Shooting Star candle pattern at resistance → indicates possible reversal.
🔹 Trade Idea
Entry: Near resistance rejection (3,680–3,696 zone).
Target: Towards 3,600 – 3,579 supports.
Stop Loss: Above major resistance / 3,696 zone.
Bias: Short-term sell projection while price respects resistance.
🔹 Special Note
Marked OBEY FVG zone (Fair Value Gap) → indicates that price is likely to fall into that area but won’t break below 3,579 support strongly unless fundamentals shift.
Overall bias: Sell from resistance, book profits at support
Gold Dips Pre-CPI: Fed Cut Hype Fuels Buying Opportunities!Hello traders! Gold (XAU/USD) is slightly down today (11/09/2025) after yesterday’s weak PPI report—US wholesale inflation fell more than expected, boosting bets for a Fed rate cut next week to 100% for 0.25%, with growing odds for 0.5% (CME FedWatch). Tonight’s CPI and Jobless Claims at 19:30 ET will clarify inflation and labor trends, shaping the Fed’s exact cut. Gold won’t drop sharply unless hit by a shock like Trump tariffs—dips are buying opportunities! Let’s analyze today’s market and find trade setups! 💰
Fundamental Analysis: Gold Shines Bright 🌟
The weak PPI fuels rate cut expectations, easing pressure on USD and Treasuries, making non-yielding gold more attractive. With a 38% YTD surge (after 27% in 2024), gold is supported by a weak USD, China’s 10-month buying streak, and global uncertainty. CPI (11/09) will guide Fed policy—low inflation could push gold to new highs; high readings may trigger short-term dips. Keep RR tight!
Technical Analysis: Consolidation Pre-CPI – Favor Buying 📉
Gold rose in Asia but hit resistance at 364x OB, dropping to 362x with liquidity sweeps—set SLs carefully! The 362x zone is key; a break below could target 361x or 3600. The bullish trend remains strong—prioritize buying dips unless major resistance fails.
Resistance: 3640 - 3648 - 3659 - 3674
Support: 3621 - 3615 - 3607 - 3600
Trade Setups:
Sell Scalp: 3640 - 3642 (SL: 3646; TP: 3637 - 3632 - 3627)
Sell Zone: 3648 - 3650 (SL: 3658; TP: 3640 - 3630 - 3620)
Buy Scalp: 3617 - 3615 (SL: 3611; TP: 3620 - 3625 - 3630)
Buy Zone: 3601 - 3599 (SL: 3591; TP: 3611 - 3621 - 3631)
Gold is consolidating pre-CPI—watch for liquidity traps! Above 362x, bulls aim for new highs; below, test lower supports. Manage risk tightly before CPI volatility! Will you buy dips or sell highs? Share your strategies below! 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #CPI #TradingView #MarketUpdate #Forex #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #Finance #USInflation
XAUUSD Trading Recap and RecommendationYesterday, we successfully went long at a low level, entering the market within the 3,600-3,620 range. Today, when the price moved up to 3,650, we executed the TP as planned and secured profits smoothly.
Today's Trading Advice: Buy on Pullbacks
Buy 3630 - 3640
TP 3650 - 3660 - 3670
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance






















