XAU/USD 16 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its upward trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price previously, and has now for the second time, printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I also have marked this in red.
Price has continued with it's upward trajectory. We are now trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,697.405.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has continued with its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price is currently trading within and internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,697.405.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially continue bullish.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
