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XAU/USD: Bearish Reaction Builds Below 4,130 ResistanceXAU/USD is approaching the edge of the resistance zone after a rebound from the $4,000 support area. Price remains within a wider consolidation, reacting to both the downward trendline and mid-range resistance. If the market stays capped below 4,130, a drop toward 4,045 is likely as sellers regain short-term control. The overall pattern suggests a compressing structure, where bearish reactions within resistance zones continue to dominate. ❗️ Risks: – Breakout above 4,130 could target 4,245, invalidating the bearish case. – FOMC or macro news could push gold sharply higher. – Failure to hold below mid-range may cause sideways drift instead of a clean drop.
CITYINDEX:XAUUSDShort
by RTED_Investing
Gold (XAUUSD) Weekly TF 2025Overview This analysis outlines the structural Fibonacci confluences, scenario planning, and macro-aligned projections for Gold (XAUUSD) on the weekly timeframe. It integrates multi-layered Fibonacci extensions and retracements, mapping out key support and resistance levels, and proposes a nuanced primary scenario that includes both intermediate rallies and corrective movements. Primary Scenario – Multi-Stage Movement Hypothesis We anticipate that gold may initially extend higher from the current level (~$3,325) to test the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $3,435, with the possibility of a further intermediate peak near $3,500. This level marks a psychological and technical resistance zone and could act as a temporary top. Following this local peak, a corrective phase may unfold. This pullback could evolve into one of the two outlined correction scenarios: 1 TP Correction Scenario Support Target: ~$2,950 Basis: 100% Fib extension confluence and prior resistance turned support Expected Outcome: Price stabilizes at this level and resumes upward momentum 2 TP Correction Scenario Support Target: ~$2,650 Basis: Strong historical structure + 100% Fib confluence from a broader cycle Expected Outcome: This zone acts as a long-term demand accumulation area Upon completion of the corrective structure, we expect gold to reinitiate its primary bullish trend. Bullish Continuation Targets TP1: ~$4,050 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) TP2: ~$4,319 (261.8% Fibonacci extension) These targets align with macroeconomic conditions, central bank accumulation trends, and long-term structural cycles. Supporting Technicals RSI: Holding above 50, indicating preserved bullish momentum MACD: Positive crossover with widening histogram on weekly timeframe Price Action: Strong support zone between $3,280–$3,300 aligning with 161.8% Fib retracement of the recent minor wave Macro Fundamentals & Correlations Central Bank Gold Demand: Sustained net buying by BRICS nations, particularly China and Russia, supports the structural bid on gold Fed Policy: Market anticipates a prolonged pause or gradual rate cuts, favoring non-yielding assets like gold DXY & US10Y Yields: Any further decline in DXY or softening yields would add tailwinds to gold Crypto Correlation: During inflationary hedging or systemic risk periods, gold and crypto may correlate positively, especially with weakening USD Intermarket Relationships: Gold, DXY, and TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap) Gold vs. DXY (US Dollar Index) Gold historically maintains an inverse correlation with DXY. A rising DXY tends to apply downward pressure on gold prices, while a falling DXY enhances gold's upside momentum. Scenario Interactions: If DXY breaks below 98, this could validate the bullish scenario for gold toward $3,435–$4,050. If DXY rallies back above 100, it could trigger the correction scenarios ($2,950 or $2,650) in gold. Gold vs. TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap) Gold and TOTAL may show positive correlation during periods of USD weakening and global liquidity expansion. Scenario Interactions: If gold rallies toward $3,500 and TOTAL also breaks key resistance (e.g., $1.8T–$2T), this signals synchronized bullish risk appetite. If gold corrects while TOTAL continues to rise, it could indicate rotation of liquidity from defensive to risk-on assets. A simultaneous correction in both may occur if DXY strengthens aggressively or if macro shocks reduce global liquidity. These intermarket relationships should be monitored continuously to assess the evolving macro context and validate the chosen scenario. In the case of a gold correction toward $2,950 or $2,650, the impact on altcoins will hinge on the prevailing macroeconomic backdrop. If the correction stems from a healthy, technical rebalancing within a risk-on environment—without a concurrent surge in the U.S. dollar—it could signal a shift in capital from defensive assets like gold into more speculative plays, including altcoins. This type of capital rotation often benefits the crypto market, particularly if TOTAL (crypto market cap) holds or advances structurally. However, if the correction is caused by rising dollar strength, tightening financial conditions, or broader risk-off sentiment, altcoins may instead suffer alongside gold, as liquidity is withdrawn across the board. Therefore, the context and drivers behind gold’s correction are crucial in assessing its downstream effects on altcoin performance. From a philosophical lens, gold's cyclical ascent and retreat mirrors the rhythm of nature and human experience—expansion, contraction, and renewal. Just as rivers carve valleys before surging toward the ocean, the market too must surrender gains to gather force. A correction in gold is not merely a financial event, but a moment of recalibration—an inhale before the next exhale of momentum. It invites reflection: whether wealth seeks refuge or ventures into risk, whether fear contracts or ambition expands. In this interplay, altcoins may inherit the restless spirit of capital in search of yield, as gold, the ancient anchor of value, briefly pauses in its timeless journey. Conclusion We present a multi-phased path for gold where: An initial bullish breakout toward $3,435–$3,500 forms a short- to mid-term peak A subsequent correction brings gold to either $2,950 or $2,650, depending on macro triggers A renewed bull rally drives gold toward $4,050 and potentially $4,319 and beyond This scenario reflects both the cyclical nature of market structure and the macro-fundamental backing that continues to support long-term gold strength.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BitonGroup
2
XAUUSD Video Analysis Brief – Weekly Forecast Summary (2025)This video summarizes the key scenarios and technical outlook for Gold (XAUUSD) on the weekly timeframe, integrating both Fibonacci-based projections and macro fundamentals. Core Setup Gold is currently positioned near the 161.8% Fibonacci extension (~$3,276). A breakout toward $3,500 is possible before a potential corrective move. Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation Gold breaks above $3,435 → rallies to $4300 → continues toward major Fibonacci targets: TP: $4,320, which is the Fibonacci level 261.8% Scenario 2: Correction First Gold fails to hold above $3,435 → triggers a healthy correction to: TP1: $2,920 TP2: $2,650 If support 161.8% level holds in the correction zone, a renewed bullish phase is expected. Macro Alignment Central bank gold buying (notably BRICS) supports the long-term bid. Fed policy leaning dovish → tailwinds for gold. Inverse correlation with DXY: DXY below 98.95 → bullish for gold DXY above 100 → signals correction Effect on Altcoins If correction is risk-on driven, capital may rotate into altcoins. If triggered by macro stress or USD strength, alts may fall alongside gold. This analysis offers a multi-scenario framework to navigate the next major moves in gold, with key levels to watch for traders, investors, and macro analysts alike.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BitonGroup
3
$XAUUSD GOLDGold is putting on his best performance in the last few years. In these phases, very often we can see an acceleration of movement I also don't rule out the possibility that we break the channel up. Gold remains a protective asset, and I want to say that this is not the top yet; now, every correction is a new entry point. The question is, where will it be? We will break this upward channel from below, stay under it for a while, and then go for new tops. Now that all amateurs are convinced that everything is moving in the channel, we will break the channel down, and we need to go short. At the expense of these short positions, we will update the ATH. In 2025, I think it would be too easy. Best regards EXCAVO _____________________ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by EXCAVO
2
Ready for CorrectionGold drops to 2830 to return to its trend line. Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
TVC:GOLDShort
by CobraVanguard
Be careful with GOLD !!!As you can see, the price has made a fake breakout within the triangle, which is clearly visible on the MACD showing a bearish divergence. The price might drop to around 2685 and then try to break the triangle . Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
COMEX:GC1!Short
by CobraVanguard
2
GOLD road map (4h)The price will reach the top of Triangle = 2710 in the short term.Currently, the price is declining and it can go down to the 0.618 line and then reach the top of the triangle. Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by CobraVanguard