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Long Term Gold Analysis Update (1W)Since I shared with you my earlier analysis about gold, it has pumped over 40%. At the moment, I see a clear 5-wave uptrend from a long-term perspective and currently the price is declining. In shorter timeframes there is a lot to discuss, but there is also lots of noise as well. In the 12H chart, I believe that if the price can't reach $4900 soon, a big downside move is close. An A-B-C correction has already formed and another A-B-C may be formed in the near future. We will call it a "double zig-zag". Nevertheless, the price on the weekly seems bullish after a retracement. But you need to be careful in lower timeframes. The weekly chart shows a clear "wave 4" signal. And if it happens, we can see a 25% retracement from the current area, and after that, another big move can start. This idea will be tag as "netural" because I believe Gold will retrace more before the main move. Thanks for reading. Skyress.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by vs_sayin
3
Gold's Bull Run Is Over – Here's Where It's Heading NextRemember that post I made about gold on January 20th, 2026? I was targeting 4,800-4,900 for the first phase and 5,200-5,400 for the second. The idea played out perfectly. The uptrend in metals is done for now. We're heading into a prolonged decline across gold, silver, and platinum. Here's why: The dollar index is strengthening, capital is flowing back into the dollar, and the Iran situation is going to have massive global ripple effects. We're looking at potential flight lockdowns, restricted fuel consumption for vehicles, and honestly, I'm not ruling out a nuclear strike in the Middle East. What's happening on the charts: We've corrected back to the 50% Fibonacci level = this is the classic setup where they trap retail traders who still think we're going up. Looking at the second chart, there are massive long positions open. More and more traders are underwater, and there are tons of buy limit orders stacked below. Those OANDA sell stop orders tell us exactly where the real pain points are, and where we'll see cascading liquidations all the way down to $3,000 per troy ounce. For the aggressive traders: If you're willing to go short on this, I'd recommend using one of the two crypto exchanges I trade on. Stay sharp out there.
TVC:GOLDShort
by StockWhaleX
GOLD seems to have reached the end of its bullish trend! (1D)Before anything else, please make sure you have checked my signature; otherwise, you will miss important analyses and updates. We are active exclusively in the crypto market and do not normally operate in other markets. However, as an exception, we have analyzed GOLD at the request of our users. On the chart, we can observe a bearish CH pattern, which clearly indicates the presence of sellers in the market. In addition, there is a 3D pattern visible on the chart, which is more relevant for higher timeframes. This suggests that sellers may soon initiate position liquidations and take profits, potentially causing downward pressure on the price. When looking at pivots and liquidity zones, there is no significant support until the $3,600–$3,400 range, which could leave the market vulnerable to further declines in the short term. For risk management, the invalidation level can be set above the most recent high, where sharp bearish moves were previously observed. A daily candle closing above this level would invalidate this analysis and signal a potential change in market dynamics. Overall, traders should be cautious and monitor these levels closely, as the combination of bearish patterns and lack of strong support points to a possible continuation of selling pressure in the near future. What’s your take on this setup do you see the same bearish structure or a different scenario? Drop your analysis in the comments and let’s compare perspectives.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by behdark
15
XAU/USD: Bearish Reaction Builds Below 4,130 ResistanceXAU/USD is approaching the edge of the resistance zone after a rebound from the $4,000 support area. Price remains within a wider consolidation, reacting to both the downward trendline and mid-range resistance. If the market stays capped below 4,130, a drop toward 4,045 is likely as sellers regain short-term control. The overall pattern suggests a compressing structure, where bearish reactions within resistance zones continue to dominate. ❗️ Risks: – Breakout above 4,130 could target 4,245, invalidating the bearish case. – FOMC or macro news could push gold sharply higher. – Failure to hold below mid-range may cause sideways drift instead of a clean drop.
CITYINDEX:XAUUSDShort
by RTED_Investing
Gold (XAUUSD) Weekly TF 2025Overview This analysis outlines the structural Fibonacci confluences, scenario planning, and macro-aligned projections for Gold (XAUUSD) on the weekly timeframe. It integrates multi-layered Fibonacci extensions and retracements, mapping out key support and resistance levels, and proposes a nuanced primary scenario that includes both intermediate rallies and corrective movements. Primary Scenario – Multi-Stage Movement Hypothesis We anticipate that gold may initially extend higher from the current level (~$3,325) to test the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $3,435, with the possibility of a further intermediate peak near $3,500. This level marks a psychological and technical resistance zone and could act as a temporary top. Following this local peak, a corrective phase may unfold. This pullback could evolve into one of the two outlined correction scenarios: 1 TP Correction Scenario Support Target: ~$2,950 Basis: 100% Fib extension confluence and prior resistance turned support Expected Outcome: Price stabilizes at this level and resumes upward momentum 2 TP Correction Scenario Support Target: ~$2,650 Basis: Strong historical structure + 100% Fib confluence from a broader cycle Expected Outcome: This zone acts as a long-term demand accumulation area Upon completion of the corrective structure, we expect gold to reinitiate its primary bullish trend. Bullish Continuation Targets TP1: ~$4,050 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) TP2: ~$4,319 (261.8% Fibonacci extension) These targets align with macroeconomic conditions, central bank accumulation trends, and long-term structural cycles. Supporting Technicals RSI: Holding above 50, indicating preserved bullish momentum MACD: Positive crossover with widening histogram on weekly timeframe Price Action: Strong support zone between $3,280–$3,300 aligning with 161.8% Fib retracement of the recent minor wave Macro Fundamentals & Correlations Central Bank Gold Demand: Sustained net buying by BRICS nations, particularly China and Russia, supports the structural bid on gold Fed Policy: Market anticipates a prolonged pause or gradual rate cuts, favoring non-yielding assets like gold DXY & US10Y Yields: Any further decline in DXY or softening yields would add tailwinds to gold Crypto Correlation: During inflationary hedging or systemic risk periods, gold and crypto may correlate positively, especially with weakening USD Intermarket Relationships: Gold, DXY, and TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap) Gold vs. DXY (US Dollar Index) Gold historically maintains an inverse correlation with DXY. A rising DXY tends to apply downward pressure on gold prices, while a falling DXY enhances gold's upside momentum. Scenario Interactions: If DXY breaks below 98, this could validate the bullish scenario for gold toward $3,435–$4,050. If DXY rallies back above 100, it could trigger the correction scenarios ($2,950 or $2,650) in gold. Gold vs. TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap) Gold and TOTAL may show positive correlation during periods of USD weakening and global liquidity expansion. Scenario Interactions: If gold rallies toward $3,500 and TOTAL also breaks key resistance (e.g., $1.8T–$2T), this signals synchronized bullish risk appetite. If gold corrects while TOTAL continues to rise, it could indicate rotation of liquidity from defensive to risk-on assets. A simultaneous correction in both may occur if DXY strengthens aggressively or if macro shocks reduce global liquidity. These intermarket relationships should be monitored continuously to assess the evolving macro context and validate the chosen scenario. In the case of a gold correction toward $2,950 or $2,650, the impact on altcoins will hinge on the prevailing macroeconomic backdrop. If the correction stems from a healthy, technical rebalancing within a risk-on environment—without a concurrent surge in the U.S. dollar—it could signal a shift in capital from defensive assets like gold into more speculative plays, including altcoins. This type of capital rotation often benefits the crypto market, particularly if TOTAL (crypto market cap) holds or advances structurally. However, if the correction is caused by rising dollar strength, tightening financial conditions, or broader risk-off sentiment, altcoins may instead suffer alongside gold, as liquidity is withdrawn across the board. Therefore, the context and drivers behind gold’s correction are crucial in assessing its downstream effects on altcoin performance. From a philosophical lens, gold's cyclical ascent and retreat mirrors the rhythm of nature and human experience—expansion, contraction, and renewal. Just as rivers carve valleys before surging toward the ocean, the market too must surrender gains to gather force. A correction in gold is not merely a financial event, but a moment of recalibration—an inhale before the next exhale of momentum. It invites reflection: whether wealth seeks refuge or ventures into risk, whether fear contracts or ambition expands. In this interplay, altcoins may inherit the restless spirit of capital in search of yield, as gold, the ancient anchor of value, briefly pauses in its timeless journey. Conclusion We present a multi-phased path for gold where: An initial bullish breakout toward $3,435–$3,500 forms a short- to mid-term peak A subsequent correction brings gold to either $2,950 or $2,650, depending on macro triggers A renewed bull rally drives gold toward $4,050 and potentially $4,319 and beyond This scenario reflects both the cyclical nature of market structure and the macro-fundamental backing that continues to support long-term gold strength.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BitonGroup
2
XAUUSD Video Analysis Brief – Weekly Forecast Summary (2025)This video summarizes the key scenarios and technical outlook for Gold (XAUUSD) on the weekly timeframe, integrating both Fibonacci-based projections and macro fundamentals. Core Setup Gold is currently positioned near the 161.8% Fibonacci extension (~$3,276). A breakout toward $3,500 is possible before a potential corrective move. Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation Gold breaks above $3,435 → rallies to $4300 → continues toward major Fibonacci targets: TP: $4,320, which is the Fibonacci level 261.8% Scenario 2: Correction First Gold fails to hold above $3,435 → triggers a healthy correction to: TP1: $2,920 TP2: $2,650 If support 161.8% level holds in the correction zone, a renewed bullish phase is expected. Macro Alignment Central bank gold buying (notably BRICS) supports the long-term bid. Fed policy leaning dovish → tailwinds for gold. Inverse correlation with DXY: DXY below 98.95 → bullish for gold DXY above 100 → signals correction Effect on Altcoins If correction is risk-on driven, capital may rotate into altcoins. If triggered by macro stress or USD strength, alts may fall alongside gold. This analysis offers a multi-scenario framework to navigate the next major moves in gold, with key levels to watch for traders, investors, and macro analysts alike.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BitonGroup
3
$XAUUSD GOLDGold is putting on his best performance in the last few years. In these phases, very often we can see an acceleration of movement I also don't rule out the possibility that we break the channel up. Gold remains a protective asset, and I want to say that this is not the top yet; now, every correction is a new entry point. The question is, where will it be? We will break this upward channel from below, stay under it for a while, and then go for new tops. Now that all amateurs are convinced that everything is moving in the channel, we will break the channel down, and we need to go short. At the expense of these short positions, we will update the ATH. In 2025, I think it would be too easy. Best regards EXCAVO _____________________ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by EXCAVO
2