XAUUSD – Holding the Primary Uptrend (BUY Bias)
Hello traders,
On the H4 timeframe, gold continues to demonstrate a sustained upward trajectory. After testing the upper trendline, price rebounded and is now consolidating around the 386x region. This suggests the market is in an accumulation phase, awaiting key news.
Fundamental Context
Tomorrow’s release of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected to be a major driver of volatility in gold.
Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding a potential US Government shutdown adds to macroeconomic instability, reinforcing gold’s role as a safe-haven asset.
At present, there is little justification for a decline in gold, especially as broader markets are also breaking higher.
Technical Analysis
Price remains within the ascending channel on H4, with buyers still in control.
The MACD indicator is above the zero line, showing no significant weakness.
Price is likely to consolidate within the 3860 – 3870 band before any strong move triggered by news.
Trading Plan
Buy Setup (priority – trend aligned)
Entry: 3829 – 3832
SL: 3825
TP: 3845 – 3862 – 3877 – 3890
Sell Scalping (counter-trend, high risk)
Entry: 3927 – 3930
SL: 3934
TP: 3915 – 3900 – 3882 – 3865
Note: Sell trades should be treated only as short-term scalps, as the dominant bias remains bullish.
Conclusion
Gold continues to respect its bullish structure, with no clear signs of weakness. Against the backdrop of political uncertainty and the forthcoming NFP release, the priority remains buying from favourable support zones. Any sell positions should be viewed purely as short-term reactions.
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