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Gold Market Analysis & Trading Plan 📌 Macro Context Gold prices continue to receive support from declining US interest rates and a weakening USD. The DXY index dropped 0.27% to 97.91, reducing the strength of the greenback. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.141%. Real yield decreased to 1.761%, providing a boost for gold as the opportunity cost of holding gold is lower. These factors strengthen the upward trend, although in the short term, gold may experience adjustments to attract more capital inflow. 📈 Technical Structure The H4 chart shows gold maintaining a strong uptrend, however, the RSI has moved deeply into the overbought zone. ⚖️ Trading Scenarios 🔴 Scenario 1 – Sell Scalping Entry: 3,879 – 3,882 SL: 3,890 TP: 3,865 → 3,850 → 3,836 → 3,810 👉 Suitable for short-term orders when price reacts at high resistance. 🟢 Scenario 2 – Buy Zone 1 Entry: 3,805 – 3,808 SL: 3,799 TP: 3,822 → 3,840 → 3,873 → 3,898 👉 Buy in line with the main trend when the price adjusts to the nearby support zone. 🟢 Scenario 3 – Buy Zone 2 (Deeper Support) Entry: 3,745 – 3,742 SL: 3,735 TP: 3,765 → 3,780 → 3,798 → 3,820 → 3,850 👉 This is a value buying zone if the market adjusts strongly, suitable for short swings. 📊 Summary The major trend for gold remains bullish, supported by a weakening USD and declining US yields. In the short term, be aware of potential technical adjustments from the 3,879 – 3,882 resistance. Priority Strategy: Buy on dips, Sell only for quick scalping. 📌 Note: Strict capital management, adhere to stop-loss to preserve profits when unexpected US news volatility occurs.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Steven-GoldTrading
3820 Breakout：Chase It or Fade It?After our long position hit the TP, we just profited from our short position near 3830 by hitting the TP at 3815. This is a very good short-term trade. Judging from the current structural form of gold, the low point of gold retracement is gradually shifting upward, and the short-term support below is moving up to the 3810-3800 area; if gold rebounds again with the help of this support area and stands above 3825, under the resonance of technical level and positive news, gold may hit the 3840-3850 area in the short term, or even reach the extreme area near 3860. The current market is bullish and it is difficult to see a reversal in the short term. At best, there will only be a short-term pullback. Therefore, in short-term trading, we mainly follow the trend trading; only after gold touches the key resistance area can we try to short gold. It should be noted that due to the limited retracement space, a reasonable TP must be set. 1. Consider going long on gold in the 3810-3800 range, initially targeting the 3835-3845 range. 2. When gold first reaches the 3840-3850 range, consider going short on gold, initially targeting the 3825-3815 range.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PriceSniper_Steffen
Gold Breaks Above $3,800 per OunceXAU/USD started the week with a strong bullish bias, posting a gain of about 1.8% in the first session and maintaining solid upward momentum. Buying pressure has held firm as political uncertainty in the United States grows amid the risk of a potential government shutdown if Congress fails to approve essential budget legislation. This has triggered continued weakness in the U.S. dollar and boosted demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, a trend that could persist in the short term if political risks remain and lead to a broader paralysis. Unstoppable Uptrend Since late August, gold has been following a marked bullish trend, consistently driving prices to new all-time highs in the short term. At the moment, there are no clear signs of exhaustion in this trend, and in the absence of significant bearish corrections, the technical structure is likely to remain dominant in the coming sessions, provided that buying pressure holds steady. However, given the speed of the recent rally, the market may soon see a phase of technical pullbacks in the short term. RSI The RSI continues to hover above the 70 level, firmly in overbought territory. At the same time, the indicator has begun showing lower highs while gold prices continue to post higher highs, creating a clear divergence signal in the short term. Together, these factors suggest that the speed of recent buying activity has caused a market imbalance, which could eventually pave the way for steady corrective pullbacks. MACD The MACD histogram remains in positive territory but is moving closer to the zero line, which represents price equilibrium. As long as the histogram fails to recover decisively, indecision is likely to become a feature of gold’s short-term price action. Key Levels to Watch: $3,900 – Psychological Resistance: In the absence of historical references, this is the most immediate level to monitor as resistance. Sustained buying above this zone would reinforce the current uptrend and consolidate a dominant bullish bias. $3,800 – Nearby Barrier: A recent neutrality level that may act as immediate support against potential short-term corrections. $3,640 – Key Support: Corresponds to the most recent lows. A break below this level would put the ongoing uptrend at risk and could open the door to a more relevant bearish bias in the short term. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREX.com
H1 bullish momentum intact | Buy 3,792–3,765, target 3,821🟡 XAU/USD – 29/09/2025 | Captain Vincent ⚓ 🔎 Captain’s Log – Structure & Trend H1 continues to print consecutive BoS → bullish trend sustained. Price broke the long-term downtrend line and surged to new highs. EMA 34 & EMA 89 both pointing up and below price → confirming short-to-mid-term bullish momentum. 📈 Captain’s Chart – Key Zones Storm Breaker (Sell Zone / ATH test) : 3,818 – 3,821 Golden Harbor (FVG – Buy Zone) : 3,792 – 3,779 OB Harbor 1 : 3,772 – 3,765 OB Harbor 2 (deeper) : 3,731 – 3,724 Core Idea: 3,792 – 3,765 is the main support “cushion” for trend-follow Buys; 3,818 – 3,821 is the wave edge where profit-taking may occur. 🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan ✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – main priority) Buy Zone 1 – FVG (3,792 – 3,779) Entry: 3,792 – 3,779 SL: 3,765 TP: 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821+ Buy Zone 2 – OB1 (3,772 – 3,765) Entry: 3,772 – 3,765 SL: 3,758 (below 3,765) TP: 3,792 – 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821 Buy Zone 3 – OB2 deep (3,731 – 3,724) Entry: 3,731 – 3,724 SL: 3,714 TP: 3,745 – 3,765 – 3,792 – 3,805 ⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL – scalp only) Sell Zone – Storm Breaker (3,818 – 3,821) Entry: 3,818 – 3,821 SL: 3,828 TP: 3,805 – 3,796 – 3,792 Breakdown Short (conditional) Only consider Short if H1 closes below 3,724 SL: 3,735 TP: 3,710 – 3,700 – 3,690 ⚓ Captain’s Note “The Golden sails remain filled after consecutive BoS . Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,792 → 3,765) is the anchor dock to board in trend’s direction. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,818 – 3,821) may trigger profit-taking waves – only go Quick Boarding 🚤 if clear signals appear. If the tide drags below 3,724, let the ship retreat to OB2 to gather strength before resuming the northbound voyage.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CaptainVincent
Plan day: 29-sep 2025 Related Information:!!! U.S. inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose to 2.7% year-on-year in August from 2.6% in July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday. The figure was in line with market consensus. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 2.9% year-on-year in August, matching both the July pace and analysts’ estimates. On a monthly basis, headline PCE and core PCE rose 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Markets are currently pricing in nearly an 88% probability of a Fed rate cut in October and a 65% chance of an additional cut in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, thereby supporting the non-yielding precious metal. personal opinion:!!! Gold extends gains, targeting $3,850.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JJainy
1
Bulls Charge Ahead—Gold’s Path to 3835–3845Brothers, it seems that we were too conservative in setting the TP. Now gold has broken through 3810, far exceeding the TP: 3785 set in our last long transaction. Because a large amount of safe-haven buying funds poured into the gold market, it continued to set new historical highs, stimulating gold to break through 3800 and continue its rise to above 3810, fully highlighting the strong bullish sentiment in the market. At present, with the support of fundamental factors that are bullish for gold, it is difficult for the gold market to reverse in a short period of time. At best, it is just a short-term adjustment. In addition, we can look for wave patterns from the candlestick chart. From the previous trend, it is not difficult to see that after a short-term consolidation, gold will pull up and retrace to form a secondary low point, and then it will wave again to $75-80 to reach a new high. Then according to this rule, after the volatile rise, gold formed a secondary low near 3760 on Friday. If we look up to the fluctuation range of $75-80, gold is likely to continue to rise to the 3835-3845 area. So, for current short-term trading. First of all, we still consider going long on gold. 1. If gold first retreats to the 3800-3790 area, we can prioritize going long on gold. 2. If gold continues its upward trend and first reaches the 3835-3845 area, we can consider going short on gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PriceSniper_Steffen
XAU/USD: When Common Sense Beats Hype1. Market Recap Gold’s rally looks unstoppable. Fundamentals are clearly supportive and technically, the chart screams bullish . But here comes the trader’s problem: just saying “Gold is bullish” doesn’t make a trade. Everyone knows that already. What matters is not the direction, but the structure of the trade itself. 2. The Educational Point – The 3 Pillars of Every Trade No matter what market you trade, a professional trader always defines three things before taking a position: 1. Entry Point – where you get in. 2. Exit Point (Target) – where you aim to take profit. 3. Negation Point (Stop-Loss) – where you admit you’re wrong and cut the trade. Without all three, you don’t have a trade — you just repeating what everyone knows. 3. The Current Problem With Gold • If you buy at market (3816), your nearest stop is today’s low (3758). That’s ~600 pips risk, and with a 1:2 ratio, you need 3950 just to make sense of it. Not impossible, but not elegant either. • If you wait for a dip to support at 3785, risk improves to ~300 pips. But this setup is already a 450 pip fail from the ATH — and failures at highs are not to be ignored and not very bullish either. • Selling at market? Again tricky, because spikes in bullish trends can wipe out shorts before the market even breathes. In short: at current levels, both long and short lack a clear, controlled setup. 4. My Trading Approach Here’s where I apply common sense: • Gold is already +1.5% since Friday’s close. • If it extends to 3850, that’s where I’ll look to fade the move. • Even if it’s not a major correction, an intraday drop is realistic. From 3850, a 500 pip move back to 3800 is enough to structure a 1:2 trade. • If stop-loss gets hit, so be it — that’s trading. 5. Conclusion At current price (3816), I don’t see a clean entry and I don’t have a favorite scenario. However, if Gold pushes into 3850, the most probable outcome in my view is at least a short-term correction. This should be a trader’s mindset: not chasing every move, but waiting until risk, reward, and probability align. 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
15
ANFIBO | XAUUSD - The week's last day, I'm bullish over $3800Hi guys, Anfibo's here! OANDA:XAUUSD Analysis – Daily Trading Strategy Overall Picture: At present, gold (XAUUSD) continues to hold steadily within the H4 bullish channel, without any unusual volatility. The dominant uptrend remains intact, and the market structure still favors buyers. Personally, I remain optimistic that gold will soon head toward a new ATH above $3,800/oz in the medium term. However, in the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate around key support and resistance levels before confirming its next move. Technical Outlook: Short-term trend: Solidly bullish, though momentum is slowing; accumulation may form before the next breakout. > SUPPORT KEY / BUY ZONES : 3740 - 3723 - 3713 - 3703 > RESISTANCE KEY / SELL ZONES : 3770 - 3777- 3788 - 3799 - 3836 Here's my Trading Plan today: >>> SELL ZONE: ENTRY: 3769 - 3775 SL: 3780 TP: 3740 - 3723 >>> BUY ZONE: ENTRY: 3700 - 3705 SL: 3695 TP: 3760 - 3800 - 3836 Risk Management: - Prioritize buy trades in line with the dominant trend, limit countertrend shorts. - Maintain a R:R ratio of at least 1:2 on all setups. - Manage capital strictly, avoid overtrading during sideways phases before breakout. ✅ Conclusion: Gold is maintaining a stable uptrend on H4, with market structure still supporting buyers. Main scenarios: Buy on dip around 3700 – 3705. A clear move beyond 3780 would likely pave the way toward a new ATH above $3,800. HAVE A NICE WEEKEND, GUYS!!!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ANFIBO_
3780-3790: A potential price reversal point; buy on dips.On Friday night, we expect gold to hit a new high of 3800-3810 after holding the key support of 3765-3755. At present, gold has broken through the expected target and is expected to move towards 3830. The current geopolitical situation has worsened, and the new round of tariffs that came into effect on October 1st has continuously stimulated the market's risk aversion sentiment, causing investors to flock to the gold market to seek risk shelter. Today's news needs to focus on the U.S. trading session. Members of the U.S. Congress from both parties are negotiating on avoiding a government shutdown. The U.S. government faces the risk of shutdown. If it is not effectively resolved, this will affect the subsequent release of key data such as NFP CPI. With the rising gold price, it has broken through previous resistance and reached a new high. The previous high of 3780-3790 has become a key level for a potential trend reversal. During the European session, if gold retraces to this range, we can consider buying gold with a target of 3820-3830.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Allen_Boswell
Gold Soars Past $3,800: Can Shutdown Fears Push Gold to $3,900?📊 Technical Structure Gold (XAU/USD) has surged to a record high above $3,800, confirming strong bullish momentum within a rising channel. Price action is currently holding above the support zone at $3,774–3,786, while eyeing the next resistance cluster at $3,837–3,848. Beyond this, extended targets sit near $3,910–3,922, aligned with Fibonacci 1.618–2.618 extensions. The structure remains buy-the-dip as long as the channel support holds. 🎯 Trade Setup (Long) Entry: $3,786–3,774 (on retest of support zone) Stop Loss: $3,768 Take Profit 1: $3,837 Take Profit 2: $3,910 Take Profit 3: $3,922 Risk/Reward (R:R): ~1 : 7.71 🌍 Macro Background Gold’s rally is fuelled by safe-haven flows as the US government shutdown risk looms. Investors are moving into gold amid uncertainty over budget negotiations in Washington, with shutdowns historically boosting demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, the Fed’s recent 25 bps cut and market pricing of another cut in October (88% probability) and December (65%) lower the opportunity cost of holding gold. The August PCE inflation came in line with expectations (core +2.9% YoY, headline +2.7%), reinforcing the view that the Fed remains on a gradual easing path. However, hawkish commentary from Fedspeak later today could inject short-term volatility into the USD and cap gold’s momentum. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone 1: $3,837 – $3,848 Resistance Zone 2: $3,910 – $3,922 Support Zone: $3,774 – $3,786 📌 Trade Summary Gold maintains a strong bullish structure, underpinned by Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical + political risks. As long as $3,774–3,786 support holds, the bias remains long, targeting $3,837 initially and potentially $3,910–3,922 if momentum extends. Caution is warranted during Fed speeches, as hawkish tones could trigger short-lived pullbacks. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ATFX_Global
XAUUSD – Prioritize buying after gold sets ATHXAUUSD – Prioritize buying after gold sets ATH, target 3840 Hello Trader, Right at the start of the week, gold established a new ATH, affirming that the upward trend remains dominant. The price structure on H1 shows that buying pressure remains quite strong, while adjustments are mainly to balance liquidity. Given the current context, the preferred trading strategy is still to wait for buying opportunities at key support areas, with a target towards 3840. Fundamental Context This week, the usual focus would be on the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. However, the risk of a U.S. Government shutdown might delay this crucial report. The U.S. fiscal year runs from 10/1 to 9/30. If Congress does not pass all 12 spending bills, agencies without allocated budgets will have to cease operations. In the absence of significant economic information, gold continues to benefit from safe-haven sentiment and fiscal policy uncertainty. Technical Perspective The price has broken out and set an ATH, with the 3837 – 3840 area currently being a strong resistance (Fibonacci + market psychology). The 3770 – 3773 area is a nearby support, coinciding with the trendline and previous liquidity, suitable for buying. The MACD on H1 indicates that buying momentum is still maintained, but a correction is needed for the price to balance before breaking higher. Trading Strategy Short-term Sell (at resistance): Entry: 3837 – 3840 SL: 3844 TP: 3830 – 3800 – 3770 Note: This is merely a reactive order at resistance, going against the main trend, so manage risk tightly. Preferred Buy (trend-following): Entry: 3770 – 3773 SL: 3766 TP: 3784 – 3799 – 3810 – 3838 Conclusion This week, gold still prioritizes the Buy strategy at support areas. The main target is towards 3840, a significant resistance area and a benchmark for trend strength. The Sell order is only short-term at resistance, while the main scenario is still to wait for a correction to buy up. Follow me for updates on short-term scenarios throughout the week, especially as fluctuations from U.S. news and fiscal policy can strongly impact gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
"XAUUSD Bullish Setup Toward 3800–3810"This chart shows the XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar) 1-hour analysis. Price is currently trading around 3769 after a bullish move. A support trend line is holding price momentum, suggesting buyers are still active above this level. Immediate support is seen near 3753, while the trendline also aligns with this support zone. If price respects the support trend line, a bullish continuation is expected. The upside targets are marked at 3800 as the next key level, and 3810 as a potential new all-time high (ATH). The projection indicates a possible short-term pullback to the trend line before resuming upward movement. Overall, the setup suggests a bullish outlook, as long as price stays above the support and trend line.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex_ViP_Signalss
31
New ATH Above 3800 & FOMO Buying Still Driving the MarketXAUUSD – Daily Plan| MMFLOW TRADING 📊 Market Context Gold has once again set a new all-time high above 3800 USD/oz, showing no signs of losing bullish momentum. The surge is fueled by strong FOMO buying flows, as traders continue to pile into safe-haven assets. Concerns about a possible US government shutdown and renewed discussions around tariff policies have weighed on the dollar, while expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts keep gold supported. Meanwhile, Fed speeches and incoming US data remain key drivers that could inject short-term volatility, but the broader bullish narrative remains intact. 🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4) Price is firmly holding above the 3800 psychological level, confirming the breakout. Buy zones remain intact at 3790–3792 and 3784–3782, with solid demand expected on any dip. Sell liquidity sits around 3823–3825, where short-term profit-taking or traps may emerge before the next leg higher. 🔑 Key Levels Resistance / Sell Zone: 3823–3825 Support / Buy Zones: 3790–3792, 3784–3782 📈 Scenarios & Trading Plan BUY ZONE 1: 3790–3792 SL: 3786 TP: 3795 - 3800 - 3810 - 3820 - 3830 - ??? BUY ZONE 2: 3784–3782 SL: 3778 TP: 3790 - 3795 - 3800 - 3810 - 3820 - 3830 - 3840 - ??? SELL ZONE (Liquidity Trap Zone): 3823–3825 SL: 3830 TP: 3818 - 3814 - 3810 - 3805 - 3800 - ??? ⚠️ Risk Notes Beware of liquidity sweeps near 3823–3825 before continuation higher. Fed comments and macro data may cause sudden spikes — adjust risk accordingly. Stick to confirmation entries around zones to avoid being trapped by false moves. ✅ Summary Gold is riding strong FOMO-driven bullish momentum, printing new highs above 3800. Main bias: buy on dips at 3790–3782, while monitoring short-term sell liquidity at 3823–3825 for potential pullbacks. The broader trend remains bullish, so patience and disciplined entries will be key. 📢 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for live updates, liquidity insights, and high-probability setups!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
XAUUSD approaching buy zone!GOLD open with a gap, as past week it has broken out of the intial structure, with new market open has sown significant bullish price action. From daily price action, it is in long term uptrend. Current 15minute price is about to cross the daily support and 4h support which in turn could lead the price to bouce off and a good area for potential buy entry, however, would like to see the support been tested with longer ATR candle. My SL in this entry would be 1.5ATR which is 91 pip in 15min which is well below the intraday support level.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ForexWizard01
Plan 28-sep-2025Related Information:!!! Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran told Fox Business on Thursday that there is no clear evidence of tariff-driven inflation, but it appears to be holding back policymakers. The economy is more vulnerable to downside shocks because Fed policy is too tight, and that policy is restraining by 200 basis points, Miran added. Separately, Chicago Fed Governor Austan Goolsbee noted that the labor market seems to be cooling, but inflation is rising, and relying on inflation being temporary makes him uneasy. Goolsbee said interest rates could come down a bit further if inflation moves toward 2%, but he is also cautious about cutting rates too soon, stressing that inflation must be brought back to the 2% target. personal opinion:!!! XAUUSD sideway 3750-3780, breakeven 3780 then 3800(ATH)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JJainy
1