XAUUSD Weekly Scenarios⚙ Weekly Scenarios
Bullish Scenario:
The price holds above support at ~$3,660 and breaks resistance at ~$3,760–3,800.
Then, a rally to $3,900 and beyond is possible, especially with support from rate and geopolitical news.
Consolidation:
The price may move sideways between $3,660 and $3,760 until a strong signal (from news or volume) breaks the range.
Bearish Scenario:
A break below $3,660 with volume confirmation could lead to a correction to $3,600 or even lower.
In this case, it's important to watch whether lower support levels hold, otherwise a deeper pullback is possible.
🔎 Conclusion
The overall picture for the week is bullish, but with the risk of a pullback or consolidation due to overbought conditions and resistance.
Key: Watch for a reaction in the resistance zones of ~$3,760–3,800 and for support to hold at ~$3,660.
For traders: consider buying on dips near support zones and shorting (or taking profits) as the price approaches strong resistance if it fails to break through.
Xauusdupdates
XAUUSD | First Line of DefenseXAUUSD | Watching the First Support
On XAUUSD, I see the first major support around the blue box. That’s where I’ll be paying attention as price drifts lower.
When we get there, I’ll be watching the 1-hour CDV closely. A positive divergence would suggest buyers are absorbing and could set up a tactical bounce.
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I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
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XAUUSD Delivered Excellent profits Thanks to those who followed, trusted me, and made profits 210 pips delivered
As I mentioned in today’s commentary session:
• I took buy trades if H4 candle closes above 3760., and I’m expecting the market to test the 3785 benchmark with an extension towards 3830.
My strategy was to buy the dips, and I’m very happy with the profits so far – .
My first target (3782) is achieved, Alhamdulillah.
Holding on to 3755, there will be new highsAfter gold broke through the triangle boundary, it meant that the short-term downward adjustment was over. After falling back to 3755, it rebounded again. Everything was in line with our expectations. The morning trend chart also confirmed our advanced trading vision.
In the short term, gold will rise rapidly. Don't chase the rise easily at high levels. It is possible that the main funds want to push up the price to sell. On the upside, pay attention to the suppression brought by the previous highs of 3780-3790. As gold prices rise, short-term resistance also turns into support. Judging from the hourly and 4H charts, the middle track support has also come to around 3755, and the MA5 moving average has also moved up to around 3755. Under multiple conditions, 3755 has become a solid short-term support level. If the support of 3765-3755 can be held, gold may hit a new high and reach 3800-3810. Therefore, if gold rises and reaches 3780-3790 in the evening, I may consider shorting gold with a light position. If gold retreats directly to the 3765-3755 range, we can consider going long on gold to target new highs.
Gold (XAU/USD at Critical Decision Zone - Breakout or Rejection?📊 XAU/USD (Gold) Analysis - Decision Point at 3750–3760
Quick Summary:
Hello, traders! I've been watching the FX:XAUUSD chart for a while now, it clearly observed that TVC:GOLD has been climbing in a well-defined bullish channel, with every dip quickly absorbed by buyers. That larger structure is still intact, reinforced by a sequence of consolidations and breakouts, each pushing price higher and respecting the channel structure.
Right now, however, price action is stalling inside a short-term descending flag pattern just below the 3750–3760 resistance zone which is a textbook bullish continuation pattern.
This level is a true pivot. It has rejected price twice already and lines up with key Fib retracement levels. The market is hesitating here but also strongly rejecting lower prices, as seen in the multiple rejection around the 38.2% fib levels. I believe this is a clear tension building phase for the next major move.
There are two paths i see:
Path A: A confirmed breakout would fuel another impulsive wave higher✅.
Path B: A failure could drag price back toward Fibonacci supports❌.
My base case leans bullish: continuation toward 3790–3820 if resistance gives way. But if rejection holds, we could see a retracement back into 3728 or even 3709–3690 before buyers step back in.
1. Market Structure
Main Trend: Price is moving inside a well-defined ascending channel.
Pattern: Repeated cycle of descending consolidation → breakout → continuation.
Current price is again consolidating in a small descending channel within the bigger bullish structure.
2. Key Levels
Order Block: Around 3752–3760 zone (highlighted in red).
Fib Levels:
0.236 retrace → ~3752 (current resistance)
0.382 → ~3728
0.5 → ~3709
0.618 → ~3690 (stronger support)
Upside Targets: 3790 → 3820 🎯 aligns with Fib extension.
3. RSI & Momentum
RSI at 54.5 — mid-zone, neither overbought nor oversold.
RSI is forming a small wedge/triangle , suggesting potential breakout soon (momentum building).
4. Volume Context
Previous breakouts backed by strong volume surges.
Current consolidation is on reduced volume , which is typical before expansion.
5. Scenarios
🟢Bullish Case
If price clears 3752–3760 order block, breakout confirmation could push towards 3790–3820 (channel top + Fib extension).
🔴Bearish Case
If price rejects order block, we could see pullbacks to 3728 → 3709 → 3690 (layered Fib supports + mid-channel).
A deeper rejection could test the lower channel ~3660–3680.
Patience is the real edge here. Wait for confirmation-discipline and timing always outlast impulse.
Gold May Retest 3800 — How to Trade It?Today, gold pulled back to the 20 area and formed a short-term bottom confirmation on the 30M chart with several long lower wicks.
Next, watch the 58 resistance. If price breaks and holds above, bulls will gain a clear advantage, with a likely move to test 3800.
During this move, the 72–77 zone may provide resistance, but strong bullish momentum is likely to break through it.
If gold reaches around 3800 and pulls back, this level will become a new support zone.
Gold Pauses: PCE Inflation Report is the Next Battleground.Hello, investors!
Gold saw only a slight 0.1% gain, closing at $3,739.42/oz on September 25, after encountering resistance from better-than-expected US jobs data (weekly jobless claims dropped sharply). This news slightly pared back expectations for a Fed rate cut in October (down to 85%).
However, gold remains supported by dovish Fed comments and potential political instability (like Trump's proposed 100% drug tariff). The market's focus is now entirely on today’s (Sept 26) PCE Inflation Report.
Expert Warning: If PCE is hotter than expected, gold could face sharp, temporary downward pressure.
Technical Analysis & Strategy
Gold is currently consolidating within a triangle pattern and has yet to break the $375x resistance. While further selling pressure is possible before the PCE data, the long-term trend remains bullish.
Outlook: Prioritize Buy positions if the price stays above the Key Level $373x. If the news causes the price to break $373x, be ready to flip the strategy to Sell.
Key Resistance: $3755, $3768, $3778
Key Support: $3738, $3727, $3712
Suggested Trading Strategy (Strict Risk Management):
BUY SCALP
Zone: $3739 - $3737
SL: $3733
TP: $3742 - $3747 - $3752 - $3757 - $3767
BUY ZONE
Zone: $3704 - $3702
SL: $3694
TP: $3712 - $3722 - $3732 - $3742 - $3762
SELL ZONE
Zone: $3776 - $3778
SL: $3786
TP: $3768 - $3758 - $3748 - $3728 - $3708
The market is at a crossroads. What's your strategy today? 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #PCE #Fed #Inflation #TradingView #ATH
XAUUSD Anlaysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 2.0 – GOLD FORECAST (26/09/2025)🔍 Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis
Daily (D1)
• Gold is trading at 3,752, holding above the 10EMA and the 3,732 pivot support.
• Momentum remains bullish overall after the rally from early September, but candles show hesitation under 3,791 high → signs of consolidation before a potential new breakout.
• As long as 3,732 holds, the structure remains bullish.
⸻
1H (Intraday Structure)
• Price has broken above the descending trendline resistance (~3,748), now retesting this area.
• Support cluster: 3,745–3,740 (aligned with EMA + structure lows).
• Resistance zone: 3,752–3,755 (capping upside before 3,764).
• MACD: momentum just flipped positive, but histogram is shallow → momentum still fragile.
• RSI: mid-zone (~55) → suggests potential to expand higher if resistance breaks.
⸻
15M (Short-Term View)
• Price consolidating 3,745–3,752.
• Higher lows forming since Asian session → bullish micro-structure.
• MACD showing bullish divergence after last sweep of lows near 3,734.
⸻
5M (Scalping View)
• Strong sweep earlier at 3,751, rejection but held 3,747–3,745 base.
• Micro ascending channel → scalpers eyeing breakout confirmation.
• Momentum picking up, but volume still thin → London likely decides breakout direction.
⸻
📌 Fibonacci Golden Zone
Swing High 3,791 → Swing Low 3,732:
• 38.2% = 3,754
• 50% = 3,761
• 61.8% = 3,767
➡️ Golden retracement lies at 3,754–3,767 → exactly where London session resistance sits. A break into this zone will decide continuation vs. rejection.
⸻
🎯 Scalping Setups (Max 60 Pips SL)
✅ Buy Setup (Preferred if bullish momentum holds)
• Entry: Above 3,752–3,754 breakout & retest.
• SL: 3,746 (≈ -60 pips).
• TP1: 3,761
• TP2: 3,767 (Fib 61.8%).
• Reasoning: Break above golden zone support confirms bullish continuation.
✅ Sell Setup (If rejection at resistance)
• Entry: Rejection at 3,754–3,755 or confirmed break below 3,740.
• SL: 3,760 (≈ -60 pips).
• TP1: 3,734
• TP2: 3,722.
• Reasoning: Failure to hold golden zone leads to pullback toward London lows.
⸻
⚠️ Key London Session Levels
• Bullish Breakout: 3,754 → opens 3,761–3,767.
• Bearish Breakdown: 3,740 → exposes 3,734 then 3,722.
• Pivot Level: 3,745 (control zone for scalpers).
⸻
✅ Summary:
Gold sits at a decision point. If 3,752–3,754 breaks and holds, expect bullish continuation into 3,761–3,767 (golden zone). If rejected, scalpers can look for shorts back toward 3,734–3,722. London open will likely provide the breakout.
Gold – Waiting for the Perfect DipIn yesterday’s analysis, I mentioned that after reaching a new ATH just under 3800, Gold could enter a correction, and that this corrective move should be seen as a buying opportunity.
Indeed, we’ve had a pullback, but it hasn’t gone deep enough to trigger my buy limit orders – which kept me on the sidelines for now.
Still, my idea remains unchanged: I expect a liquidity dip closer to the 3700 zone, which stands out as the key support area for buyers.
Trading Plan:
• I continue to look for buying opportunities on dips, ideally around 3700.
• If price holds this zone, the bullish structure remains intact and another run toward ATH levels becomes likely.
• However, if Gold breaks below 3700, the market could enter a deeper correction phase, and I will have to re-evaluate my bias and strategy.
XAU/USD Technical Setup: Reversal Brewing Inside Bearish ChannelAbsolutely! Let's break down the technical analysis chart for **Gold Spot U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD)** on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's what it's signaling:
---
### 📉 Chart Structure: Descending Channel
- The price action is confined within a **descending channel**, marked by two parallel trend lines sloping downward.
- This typically indicates a **short-term bearish trend**, but also sets the stage for a potential **bullish breakout** if momentum shifts.
---
### 🔄 Reversal Signal: Rounded Bottom
- Inside the channel, there's a **rounded bottom pattern**—a classic reversal formation.
- This suggests that selling pressure is weakening and buyers may be preparing to take control.
---
### 📈 Trade Setup Overview
| Component | Level | Purpose |
|----------------|-------------|----------------------------------|
| **Entry Point**| 3,754.95 | Buy trigger after breakout |
| **Target Point**| 3,726.91 | Profit-taking level |
| **Stop Loss** | 3,775.95 | Risk control if breakout fails |
> ⚠️ Note: The **target point is lower than the entry**, which is unusual for a bullish breakout. This might be a labeling error or a short-term scalp strategy. Typically, you'd expect the target to be **above** the entry in a long trade.
### 🧠 Strategic Interpretation
- **Bullish Bias**: The rounded bottom and breakout arrow suggest a bullish move is expected.
- **Risk Management**: The stop loss is placed above the entry, which is unconventional. Normally, you'd place it below the entry in a long setup.
- **Channel Breakout**: If price breaks above the descending channel with volume confirmation, it could trigger a strong upward
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,740, consolidating below the descending trendline resistance. The support zone lies at $3,723 – $3,719, while the resistance zone is around $3,761 – $3,765. The price structure shows a “buy-the-dip” bias as long as support holds, but near-term pressure remains capped by the downtrend line. A breakout above $3,765 could open the path toward $3,785.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,719 – $3,723 (support retest)
Stop Loss: $3,715
Take Profit: $3,764 / $3,785
Risk/Reward (R:R): ~1 : 5.4
🌍 Macro Background
Markets await the US Core PCE Inflation data later today – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Stronger-than-expected PCE could strengthen the USD and pressure gold lower. On the other hand, a softer reading may revive rate cut expectations, supporting gold. Additionally, Trump’s new tariffs (100% on pharmaceuticals, 50% on cabinets, 30% on furniture, etc.) and ongoing geopolitical risks with Russia provide safe-haven flows that keep gold attractive. Despite the USD holding at three-week highs, investors continue to see gold as a hedge amid policy uncertainty and trade tensions.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $3,764 / $3,785
Support: $3,723 / $3,719
📝 Trade Summary
The overall structure favours a buy-the-dip strategy near support zones, with upside potential toward $3,764 – $3,785 if US PCE comes in softer. However, a stronger inflation print may trigger a deeper pullback below $3,719. Traders should stay alert for volatility around the data release.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
3717 Won’t Hold—Gold’s Next Breakdown AheadThe highest point of gold during the day was around 3761. It can be clearly seen that as the bullish momentum of gold gradually declines, the high point of the candlestick chart is also gradually moving downward. Judging from the daily candlestick chart, a bearish candlestick chart appeared for the second consecutive day today, and it is very likely to close in a doji pattern, suggesting that gold is likely to continue to fall.
From the perspective of short-term morphological structure, gold has currently perfectly constructed a downward trend channel based on the wave top areas of 3790, 3778 and 3761; and upper shadows appear on many candlestick charts, suggesting that the selling pressure from above is relatively large, and the center of gravity continues to move downward and test the lower support area many times. Based on the current structure, 3717 is likely not the current low, and gold will continue to fall. The upper short-term resistance is in the 3750-3760 area; the lower support is in the 3715-3705 area, followed by the 3695-3690 area.
Therefore, for short-term trading:
1. Prioritize waiting for a gold rebound and then continue shorting gold within the 3750-3760 area; the short-term target is 3725-3715.
2. If gold first retreats to the 3715-3705 area, we can take advantage of the initial pullback and go long gold in that area, with the short-term target being 3730-3740.
9/25: Buy at Lows, Watch Resistance at 3758–3763Good morning everyone!
Yesterday, gold rebounded from support but failed to break resistance, then continued its decline to around 3720, completing the divergence correction on the 30M chart. This downside move was well captured.
Currently, price is in a rebound phase:
3752–3758 is the key resistance zone. A clean breakout and consolidation above would give the bulls stronger momentum.
3733–3726 is the key support area. If price retests without breaking lower and forms bullish candles (especially strong bullish candles without long upper wicks), the probability of another upward move increases.
If volume supports a breakout, watch the 3770–3780 resistance area, as it may trigger further upside.
📌 Trading Outlook:
Trend setups:
Long opportunities below 3710;
Short opportunities above 3780;
If price breaks above 3770 and retests near 3760 without losing 3752, this could present another long entry.
Range setups:
Consider swing trades within the 3766–3726 range.
⚠️ Reminder: If your account condition is not favorable, avoid unnecessary trades. Focus on higher-probability setups to steadily grow profits while controlling risk.
Gold Trade Set Up Sep 25 2025Last night we caught a buy from 15m demand securing 300 pips followed by a sell at 1m supply securing 100 pips then now another sell from 15m supply currently running 200 pips aiming for 350 pips at 15m demand
overall im bearish for now until it hits a 4h demand at 3658-3644 to continue its bullish move back to ATH
Gold: Opportunities for both longs and shorts.Gold still pulled back downward overnight, which is the time window we reminded everyone to pay attention to yesterday. On the daily timeframe, the price has started to approach MA5. After a relatively large short-term gain, it is facing correction pressure. Today, focus on the support from MA10; there is also a need for a pullback on the weekly timeframe. However, note that there will still be an upward move after the correction—fundamentals have not changed, and the main trend remains intact.
After the strong one-way trend shifted to consolidation, short positions can also be traded; there are opportunities for both short-term long and short positions, but it is necessary to seize the right levels. Pay attention to shorting on rebounds near the 3765/3770 resistance, and look to go long near the 3710 support and the daily MA10 level. Currently, price volatility is relatively high, so be sure to control risks properly.
Buy 3730 - 3740 TP 3750 - 3760 - 3770 SL 3725
Sell 3760 - 3770 TP 3770 - 3775 SL 3758
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
ANFIBO | XAUUSD - A psychological zone $3800 ? [09.25.2025]Hi guys! Anfibo's here!
Overall Picture Today:
OANDA:XAUUSD is currently maintaining stability within the H4 bullish channel, reflecting the sustainability of the prevailing uptrend. Although no major breakout has occurred in recent sessions, the technical structure indicates that buyers still hold the advantage. However, the market is showing signs of stalling at a key resistance zone, so short-term trading plans should focus on resistance and support levels to optimize profits.
> SUPPORT KEY LEVELS: 3748 - 3733 - 3703
> RESISTANCE KEY LEVELS: 3768 - 3777- 3788 - 3799
Here's my Trading Plan today:
>>> SELL SCALP:
ENTRY: 3770 - 3765
SL: 3780
TP: 3720 - 3705
>>> BUY ZONE:
ENTRY: 3700 - 3705
SL: 3695
TP: 3760 - 3800
Always set stop-loss and good money management for success!
GOODLUCK GUYS!!!
XAUUSD Analysis: Precarious Levels, Here's My Trade Plan📊 Looking at Gold (XAUUSD) on the 4-hour timeframe, price is sitting at a precarious level. Recently, we’ve seen a bearish break of structure, but some bullish momentum is beginning to show 📈.
🔎 That said, there’s still no confirmation of a bullish market structure break just yet. I’ll be watching two possible scenarios:
1️⃣ If price breaks the current high, then retests and fails, this could set up a potential long entry 🚀.
2️⃣ If price instead breaks the current low, then retests and fails, that would signal a possible short opportunity 📉.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risk carefully.






















