26/9/68 : XAUUSD ( Europe / London Session )Using it from Europe Session until 7.00PM , I'll new analysis and update at 8.00PM
Resistance
3769-3774
3759-3764
3753
Support
3743
3733-3738
3722-3728
Xauusdupdates
Gold – Waiting for the Perfect DipIn yesterday’s analysis, I mentioned that after reaching a new ATH just under 3800, Gold could enter a correction, and that this corrective move should be seen as a buying opportunity.
Indeed, we’ve had a pullback, but it hasn’t gone deep enough to trigger my buy limit orders – which kept me on the sidelines for now.
Still, my idea remains unchanged: I expect a liquidity dip closer to the 3700 zone, which stands out as the key support area for buyers.
Trading Plan:
• I continue to look for buying opportunities on dips, ideally around 3700.
• If price holds this zone, the bullish structure remains intact and another run toward ATH levels becomes likely.
• However, if Gold breaks below 3700, the market could enter a deeper correction phase, and I will have to re-evaluate my bias and strategy.
XAU/USD Technical Setup: Reversal Brewing Inside Bearish ChannelAbsolutely! Let's break down the technical analysis chart for **Gold Spot U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD)** on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's what it's signaling:
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### 📉 Chart Structure: Descending Channel
- The price action is confined within a **descending channel**, marked by two parallel trend lines sloping downward.
- This typically indicates a **short-term bearish trend**, but also sets the stage for a potential **bullish breakout** if momentum shifts.
---
### 🔄 Reversal Signal: Rounded Bottom
- Inside the channel, there's a **rounded bottom pattern**—a classic reversal formation.
- This suggests that selling pressure is weakening and buyers may be preparing to take control.
---
### 📈 Trade Setup Overview
| Component | Level | Purpose |
|----------------|-------------|----------------------------------|
| **Entry Point**| 3,754.95 | Buy trigger after breakout |
| **Target Point**| 3,726.91 | Profit-taking level |
| **Stop Loss** | 3,775.95 | Risk control if breakout fails |
> ⚠️ Note: The **target point is lower than the entry**, which is unusual for a bullish breakout. This might be a labeling error or a short-term scalp strategy. Typically, you'd expect the target to be **above** the entry in a long trade.
### 🧠 Strategic Interpretation
- **Bullish Bias**: The rounded bottom and breakout arrow suggest a bullish move is expected.
- **Risk Management**: The stop loss is placed above the entry, which is unconventional. Normally, you'd place it below the entry in a long setup.
- **Channel Breakout**: If price breaks above the descending channel with volume confirmation, it could trigger a strong upward
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,740, consolidating below the descending trendline resistance. The support zone lies at $3,723 – $3,719, while the resistance zone is around $3,761 – $3,765. The price structure shows a “buy-the-dip” bias as long as support holds, but near-term pressure remains capped by the downtrend line. A breakout above $3,765 could open the path toward $3,785.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,719 – $3,723 (support retest)
Stop Loss: $3,715
Take Profit: $3,764 / $3,785
Risk/Reward (R:R): ~1 : 5.4
🌍 Macro Background
Markets await the US Core PCE Inflation data later today – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Stronger-than-expected PCE could strengthen the USD and pressure gold lower. On the other hand, a softer reading may revive rate cut expectations, supporting gold. Additionally, Trump’s new tariffs (100% on pharmaceuticals, 50% on cabinets, 30% on furniture, etc.) and ongoing geopolitical risks with Russia provide safe-haven flows that keep gold attractive. Despite the USD holding at three-week highs, investors continue to see gold as a hedge amid policy uncertainty and trade tensions.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $3,764 / $3,785
Support: $3,723 / $3,719
📝 Trade Summary
The overall structure favours a buy-the-dip strategy near support zones, with upside potential toward $3,764 – $3,785 if US PCE comes in softer. However, a stronger inflation print may trigger a deeper pullback below $3,719. Traders should stay alert for volatility around the data release.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
3717 Won’t Hold—Gold’s Next Breakdown AheadThe highest point of gold during the day was around 3761. It can be clearly seen that as the bullish momentum of gold gradually declines, the high point of the candlestick chart is also gradually moving downward. Judging from the daily candlestick chart, a bearish candlestick chart appeared for the second consecutive day today, and it is very likely to close in a doji pattern, suggesting that gold is likely to continue to fall.
From the perspective of short-term morphological structure, gold has currently perfectly constructed a downward trend channel based on the wave top areas of 3790, 3778 and 3761; and upper shadows appear on many candlestick charts, suggesting that the selling pressure from above is relatively large, and the center of gravity continues to move downward and test the lower support area many times. Based on the current structure, 3717 is likely not the current low, and gold will continue to fall. The upper short-term resistance is in the 3750-3760 area; the lower support is in the 3715-3705 area, followed by the 3695-3690 area.
Therefore, for short-term trading:
1. Prioritize waiting for a gold rebound and then continue shorting gold within the 3750-3760 area; the short-term target is 3725-3715.
2. If gold first retreats to the 3715-3705 area, we can take advantage of the initial pullback and go long gold in that area, with the short-term target being 3730-3740.
9/25: Buy at Lows, Watch Resistance at 3758–3763Good morning everyone!
Yesterday, gold rebounded from support but failed to break resistance, then continued its decline to around 3720, completing the divergence correction on the 30M chart. This downside move was well captured.
Currently, price is in a rebound phase:
3752–3758 is the key resistance zone. A clean breakout and consolidation above would give the bulls stronger momentum.
3733–3726 is the key support area. If price retests without breaking lower and forms bullish candles (especially strong bullish candles without long upper wicks), the probability of another upward move increases.
If volume supports a breakout, watch the 3770–3780 resistance area, as it may trigger further upside.
📌 Trading Outlook:
Trend setups:
Long opportunities below 3710;
Short opportunities above 3780;
If price breaks above 3770 and retests near 3760 without losing 3752, this could present another long entry.
Range setups:
Consider swing trades within the 3766–3726 range.
⚠️ Reminder: If your account condition is not favorable, avoid unnecessary trades. Focus on higher-probability setups to steadily grow profits while controlling risk.
Gold Trade Set Up Sep 25 2025Last night we caught a buy from 15m demand securing 300 pips followed by a sell at 1m supply securing 100 pips then now another sell from 15m supply currently running 200 pips aiming for 350 pips at 15m demand
overall im bearish for now until it hits a 4h demand at 3658-3644 to continue its bullish move back to ATH
Gold: Opportunities for both longs and shorts.Gold still pulled back downward overnight, which is the time window we reminded everyone to pay attention to yesterday. On the daily timeframe, the price has started to approach MA5. After a relatively large short-term gain, it is facing correction pressure. Today, focus on the support from MA10; there is also a need for a pullback on the weekly timeframe. However, note that there will still be an upward move after the correction—fundamentals have not changed, and the main trend remains intact.
After the strong one-way trend shifted to consolidation, short positions can also be traded; there are opportunities for both short-term long and short positions, but it is necessary to seize the right levels. Pay attention to shorting on rebounds near the 3765/3770 resistance, and look to go long near the 3710 support and the daily MA10 level. Currently, price volatility is relatively high, so be sure to control risks properly.
Buy 3730 - 3740 TP 3750 - 3760 - 3770 SL 3725
Sell 3760 - 3770 TP 3770 - 3775 SL 3758
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
ANFIBO | XAUUSD - A psychological zone $3800 ? [09.25.2025]Hi guys! Anfibo's here!
Overall Picture Today:
OANDA:XAUUSD is currently maintaining stability within the H4 bullish channel, reflecting the sustainability of the prevailing uptrend. Although no major breakout has occurred in recent sessions, the technical structure indicates that buyers still hold the advantage. However, the market is showing signs of stalling at a key resistance zone, so short-term trading plans should focus on resistance and support levels to optimize profits.
> SUPPORT KEY LEVELS: 3748 - 3733 - 3703
> RESISTANCE KEY LEVELS: 3768 - 3777- 3788 - 3799
Here's my Trading Plan today:
>>> SELL SCALP:
ENTRY: 3770 - 3765
SL: 3780
TP: 3720 - 3705
>>> BUY ZONE:
ENTRY: 3700 - 3705
SL: 3695
TP: 3760 - 3800
Always set stop-loss and good money management for success!
GOODLUCK GUYS!!!
XAUUSD Analysis: Precarious Levels, Here's My Trade Plan📊 Looking at Gold (XAUUSD) on the 4-hour timeframe, price is sitting at a precarious level. Recently, we’ve seen a bearish break of structure, but some bullish momentum is beginning to show 📈.
🔎 That said, there’s still no confirmation of a bullish market structure break just yet. I’ll be watching two possible scenarios:
1️⃣ If price breaks the current high, then retests and fails, this could set up a potential long entry 🚀.
2️⃣ If price instead breaks the current low, then retests and fails, that would signal a possible short opportunity 📉.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage your risk carefully.
Gold: Correction Near 3700, Bulls Preparing for Another RunAfter printing a new ATH near 3800, Gold started a correction that pushed price as low as 3717.
The decline from the highs is corrective in nature, not impulsive, which keeps the broader bullish structure intact.
The key question now: has Gold finished its pullback, or will we see one more leg lower before the uptrend resumes?
Why I favor upside continuation:
• The 3700 zone stands out as a strong support area where buyers are expected to defend.
• Momentum indicators show loss of bearish pressure, consistent with a corrective move.
• The broader trend remains strongly bullish, with no structural break to the downside.
If 3700 holds, a reversal from here could easily re-expose the 3800 zone and potentially new highs beyond it.
Trading Plan:
My strategy is to buy dips into support, especially around 3700, aiming for a continuation higher. Risk management is crucial to such elevated prices, but the bullish bias dominates as long as 3700 remains defended.
Gold "Cools Down": A Sign of a Coming Downturn?Gold "Cools Down": A Sign of a Coming Downturn? 📉🤔
Hello, investors!
Gold saw a notable correction on September 24, closing at $3,762.73/oz after reaching a historic high of $3,790.82/oz just one day earlier. Gold futures also dropped 0.5% to $3,795.80/oz. Is this a sign of a deeper correction or just a short-term profit-taking before key news?
Fundamental Analysis: Market "Holds Its Breath" Before the PCE Inflation Report
Yesterday's drop in gold seems to have little to do with the released U.S. economic data, as the USD index only had a slight rebound and housing data wasn't strong enough to cause such a major move. Instead, the most likely reasons are:
Cautious Profit-Taking: Investors are taking profits after a rapid run-up, aiming to mitigate risk before the upcoming PCE inflation report on September 26.
Fed Expectations: Despite short-term volatility, the market holds firm on its expectation that the Fed will cut rates in October and December with a high probability (94% and 77%). A low-rate environment and geopolitical concerns remain the core drivers supporting gold's price in the long term.
Technical Analysis: "Sell" or "Wait to Buy"?
Gold had a significant correction from the $3,770 area, indicating that a large number of profit-taking sell orders were triggered. However, the downtrend has paused and is now looking for a new balance point.
Outlook: With the current cautious sentiment, there's a chance gold may see further selling pressure in the short term. However, any deeper drop would be an excellent opportunity to buy back at a better price, as the long-term bullish momentum is still intact.
Suggested Trading Strategy (Strict Risk Management):
Sell Zone: Zone $3766 - $3768, SL $3776
Buy Zone: Zone $3702 - $3700, SL $3692
The market is highly sensitive. Do you think this correction is a buying opportunity or a time to step back? Share your thoughts! 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #GoldAnalysis #TradingView #InterestRates #Inflation #PCE #USD
Fed Cut Hopes & Geopolitical Risks Fuel Gold Rally📊 Market View
Gold is holding its bullish tone, trading firmly above 3750 USD/oz and refreshing daily highs in the European session. Investor sentiment is being lifted by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue rate cuts into year-end, lowering borrowing costs and strengthening demand for non-yielding assets like gold. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks keep safe-haven flows alive, further reinforcing gold’s momentum.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4)
Price structure remains bullish above 3750, supported by trendline dynamics.
Buy liquidity zones identified at 3742–3740 (major demand) and 3757–3755 (scalp entry).
Key short-term resistance sits around 3778, with extended liquidity targets towards 3813–3815.
A rejection from the 3813–3815 sell zone could trigger pullbacks into demand areas.
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance: 3778 ➡️ 3813–3815
Support / Buy Zones: 3757–3755 ➡️ 3742–3740
📈 Scenarios & Trading Plan
✅ BUY ZONE (Main Setup): 3742–3740
SL: 3735
TP: 3748 ➡️ 3752 ➡️ 3756 ➡️ 3760 ➡️ 3770 ➡️ 3780 ➡️ …
✅ BUY SCALP (Aggressive Entry): 3757–3755
SL: 3750
TP: 3762 ➡️ 3766 ➡️ 3780 ➡️ …
✅ SELL ZONE (Liquidity Trap): 3813–3815
SL: 3820
TP: 3810 ➡️ 3805 ➡️ 3800 ➡️ 3795 ➡️ 3790 ➡️ 3780 ➡️ …
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
Watch for fake breakouts near 3813–3815 — liquidity sweeps are common before reversal.
Prioritize long entries on confirmed pullbacks, avoid chasing price in the middle range.
Keep position sizing modest as volatility could spike on Fed commentary or geopolitical updates.
✅ Summary
Gold remains in a strong bullish phase, fueled by Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions. Strategy: buy dips at 3757–3755 or 3742–3740, targeting 3770–3780, while watching for short-term rejection at 3813–3815 for potential sells.
📢 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for live intraday updates, liquidity-based trading setups, and high-probability strategies on XAUUSD.
25/9/68 : XAUUSD ( Europe / London Session )Using it from Europe Session until 7.00PM , I'll new analysis and update at 8.00PM
Resistance
3759-3764
3749-3754
3743
Support
3733
3722-3728
3712-3717
Gold Record Highs Under the Lens of ATAI VPA & VPRCGold Analysis Report
In recent days, as gold has reached new historical highs, two analytical tools have been used to assess the market conditions:
- ATAI Volume analysis with price action V 1.03
- ATAI Volume Pressure Analyzer (VPA)
It is important to emphasize that the gold market is heavily influenced by global economic and political events, and precise volume data is not publicly available. The only volume data considered here comes from OANDA. For this evaluation, a 70-day period has been chosen to study the broader behavioral and volume pattern of gold over the past two months.
Bull Trap Risk Detection (ATAI Volume analysis with price action V 1.03)
In this indicator, Bull Trap detection is based on the interaction of price behavior and order-flow volume. The logic is as follows:
1. Bull Sweep (False Breakout with Long Wick)
- If price exceeds the recent high (`high_level`) but closes back below it, and the upper wick of the candle makes up a sufficiently large fraction of the total range, then a Bull Sweep is detected.
- Formula:
upper_wick_ratio = (high - max(open, close)) / (high - low)
Condition: upper_wick_ratio >= trap_wick_threshold (e.g., 0.6)
2. Bull Break
- If the close is above the breakout level without a long wick, it is treated as a Bull Break.
3. Mismatch Condition
- If the candle is bullish (close > open) but delta ≤ 0 or seller ratio > 50%, then there is a mismatch between price action and order flow.
- Formula (simplified):
mismatchBull = (close > open) and (delta <= 0 or seller_ratio > 0.5)
4. Dominance Inversion
- If buyer volume ranks highest in the lookback window, but cumulative seller volume is greater than buyer volume while the candle is bullish, a dominance inversion occurs.
- Condition:
domInvBull = (rank_buy == 1) and (sum_sell > sum_buy) and (close > open)
5. Low Volume Breakout
- If a bullish breakout occurs with total volume less than the average total volume, then the breakout is flagged as low-volume.
- Condition:
lowVolBull = isBullBreak and (TF_tot < avg_tot)
The module assigns scores to these conditions:
- Sweep: +2
- Break: +1
- Mismatch: +2
- Dominance Inversion: +2
- Low-volume Break: +1
If total score ≥ trap_score_risk (default = 3), then a Bull Trap Risk is flagged. If, within `trap_confirm_bars`, price reverses and closes back below the breakout level, then Bull Trap Risk Confirmed is displayed.
Complementary View (ATAI Volume Pressure Analyzer – VPA)
The VPA indicator, with its left (C→B) and right (B→A) wings and offset capability, allows a parallel evaluation of flow balance. In the current gold chart, the right wing (B→A) reflects weakness on the buyers' side, reinforcing the Bull Trap risk detected by the previous indicator. This alignment strengthens the probability of a bearish scenario.
However, the extent of any downward path will depend on the pivotal price levels where the largest buy and sell volumes were registered over the past 70 days. These are represented by points B1 and S1, clustered around the 3409 USD level.
Notes
- On lower timeframes, accuracy in buy/sell volume calculation depends on the data window. Here, a 1-minute timeframe was selected, which provides ~74 days of buy/sell flow data.
- Gold remains highly sensitive to political and economic news globally.
- This analysis is based solely on mathematical calculations and volume/behavioral pattern recognition. It must not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.
Daily Plan: What’s Next After the All-Time High Correction?📊 Market Context
Gold is struggling to recover from yesterday’s pullback after hitting a record high at 3791 USD/oz. In the Asian session on Thursday, price action remains cautious as traders await U.S. mid-tier data and further speeches from Fed officials for fresh momentum. While the long-term trend remains bullish, the current pause highlights how sensitive gold is to short-term liquidity sweeps and macro catalysts.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4)
ATH zone sits at 3791, with sellers reacting strongly from that level.
Price is currently trading below the downtrend reaction zone 3755–3757, showing near-term weakness.
Buy-side liquidity remains intact at 3712 and deeper at 3688–3686 (CP + OBS Buy Zone).
Sell-side liquidity zone identified at 3775–3777, likely to attract reactions if retested.
Larger liquidity magnet lies at 3824–3830, but only if bulls regain momentum above 3777.
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance / Sell Zones: 3775–3777 - 3791 - 3824–3830
Support / Buy Zones: 3712 - 3688–3686
📈 Scenarios & Trading Plan
✅ BUY ZONE (Main Setup): 3688–3686
SL: 3680
TP: 3696 - 3700 - 3705 - 3710 - 3720 - 3730 - …
✅ SELL ZONE (Liquidity Reaction): 3775–3777
SL: 3782
TP: 3770 - 3765 - 3760 - 3750 - 3740 - 3730 - …
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
Stay alert for false breakouts around 3775–3777, as price may sweep liquidity before reversing.
Avoid chasing entries mid-range; wait for price action confirmation in the buy/sell zones.
U.S. data and Fed commentary could trigger volatility spikes — adjust risk accordingly.
✅ Summary
Gold is consolidating after its record high at 3791, with traders waiting for new catalysts. The plan today: buy dips at 3688–3686, targeting a recovery towards 3720–3730, while looking for short-term sells at 3775–3777 if rejection occurs. A break above 3777 would re-open the path towards 3824–3830.
📢 Follow MMFLOW TRADING on TradingView for real-time liquidity setups and BIGWIN strategies as gold approaches its next critical levels.
Gold Price Forecast – Long Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
Gold price retraced from the 3777–3785 resistance zone and is currently consolidating during Asia Session. The chart indicates a solid support base around 3714–3723, while resistance is capped near 3777–3785. As long as price holds above support, the bullish bias remains intact, with potential to retest upper resistance.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry (Buy): 3723
Stop Loss: 3712
Take Profit: 3785
Risk/Reward (R:R): 1 : 5.62
🌍 Macro Background
Gold holds firm near $3,750 in early Asian trading, supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and elevated geopolitical risks. The Fed has already cut rates by 25bps in September, bringing the Federal Funds Rate to 4.00%–4.25%, with projections showing two more cuts this year and one in 2026. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, boosting demand.
Meanwhile, heightened geopolitical tensions — with NATO warning Russia over repeated airspace violations — continue to fuel safe-haven flows. However, Fed Chair Powell’s cautious comments about balancing labour market weakness with inflation risks may limit the upside momentum in the short term. Despite this, the medium-term structure still favours the bulls.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance (R): 3777 / 3785 / 3790
Support (S): 3723 / 3714
📝 Trade Summary
Gold remains supported by rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand. A buy setup near 3723 with stops below 3712 and target at 3785 offers a favourable risk/reward profile. Sustained momentum above 3785 could open the path towards the 3800 psychological level.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
World gold prices are experiencing profit-taking. After soaring to nearly $3,800 an ounce, world gold prices are facing profit-taking. Rising US new home sales have put pressure on the precious metal.
According to a report released on Wednesday by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, new home sales increased 20.5% last month to an annualized rate of 800,000 units, compared to an adjusted rate of 664,000 units in July.
New home sales increased 15.4% year-on-year and are now at their highest level since February 2022.
Despite the decline, world gold prices still receive positive forecasts from experts. Bart Melek - Managing Director, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at TD Securities predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000/ounce in the short term as central banks, especially China and many emerging markets, will buy millions of ounces more to increase their reserve ratios.
The main reason is that the US Federal Reserve (FED) continues to loosen monetary policy as it enters 2026. There is a high possibility of another interest rate cut this year, or even two, although the FED Chairman did not confirm it clearly in his speech on Tuesday," Melek said in an interview on Tuesday.
Gold’s Decade Shines Less Brightly for Stocks: The New Rational
Gold’s Decade Shines Less Brightly for Stocks: The New Rationale for the King Metal
For over a decade, the narrative surrounding gold was one of stark contrast to the equity markets. As stock indices, powered by tech innovation and ultra-low interest rates, embarked on a historic bull run, gold was often relegated to the sidelines—a relic for the fearful, an underperforming asset in a world chasing yield. The 2010s were, without question, the decade of the stock market. Gold’s shine, by comparison, seemed dull.
But a perceptible shift is underway. The latest rally in gold, which has seen it scale unprecedented nominal heights, is not the frantic, fear-driven surge of past crises. Instead, it appears to be driven by a more sober, strategic, and perhaps more durable force: the rational calculations of central banks and a fundamental rewiring of the global financial architecture. This new rationale suggests that gold’s resurgence may not spell immediate doom for stocks, as traditional wisdom would hold, but rather reflects a new, more complex macroeconomic reality where the two can coexist, albeit with gold casting a long, less brilliant shadow over the equity landscape.
The Ghost of Gold Rallies Past: A Tale of Fear and Froth
To understand the significance of the current rally, one must first revisit the drivers of previous gold booms. Historically, gold’s major upward moves were tightly correlated with periods of acute stress and negative real interest rates.
The post-2008 financial crisis surge, which took gold from around $800 an ounce in 2008 to over $1,900 in 2011, was a classic "fear trade." The world was confronting a systemic banking collapse, unprecedented monetary experimentation in the form of Quantitative Easing (QE), and rampant fears of runaway inflation and currency debasement. Gold was the safe haven, the hedge against a collapsing system. Similarly, the spike in mid-2020, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, was a panic-driven flight to safety as global economies screeched to a halt.
These rallies shared common characteristics: they were often sharp, volatile, and ultimately prone to significant retracements. When the immediate crisis abated—when inflation failed to materialize post-2008, or when fiscal and monetary stimulus ignited a V-shaped stock market recovery in 2020—the rationale for holding a non-yielding asset weakened. Money flowed back into risk assets like stocks. Gold’s role was binary: it was the asset for when things were falling apart. In a functioning, risk-on market, it had little place.
This created the perception of an inverse relationship. A strong gold price was a signal of market distress, and thus, bad for stocks. But this decade is different.
The New Architects: Central Banks and Strategic Repatriation
The most profound change in the gold market has been the transformation of its largest and most influential buyers: central banks. For years, the narrative was that developed Western central banks, holders of the world’s primary reserve currencies, were gradually diversifying away from gold. The modern financial system, built on the U.S. dollar, Treasury bonds, and other interest-bearing instruments, was deemed superior.
That assumption has been decisively overturned. Since around 2010, but accelerating dramatically in recent years, central banks—particularly those in emerging economies—have become net purchasers of gold on a massive and sustained scale. The World Gold Council reports that central banks have been adding to their reserves for over a decade, with annual purchases hitting multi-decade records.
This buying is not driven by panic. It is a calculated, long-term strategic move rooted in three key rationales:
1. De-dollarization and Geopolitical Hedging: The weaponization of the U.S. dollar through sanctions, particularly against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, served as a wake-up call for nations not squarely in the U.S. geopolitical orbit. Holding vast reserves in U.S. Treasury bonds suddenly carried a new risk: they could be frozen or seized. Gold, by contrast, is a sovereign asset. It can be held within a nation’s own vaults, is nobody’s liability, and is beyond the reach of any other country’s financial system. For China, Russia, India, Turkey, and many nations in the Global South, accumulating gold is a strategic imperative to reduce dependency on the dollar and insulate their economies from geopolitical friction.
2. Diversification Against Fiscal Profligacy: Even for allies of the U.S., the sheer scale of U.S. government debt is a growing concern. With debt-to-GDP ratios at record levels in many developed nations and little political will to address them, the long-term value of fiat currencies is being questioned. Central banks are increasingly viewing gold as a perennial hedge against the fiscal and monetary policies of their allies—a form of insurance against the potential devaluation of the very government bonds that form the backbone of their reserves.
3. A Return to a Multi-Polar Financial World: The post-Bretton Woods era has been dominated by the U.S. dollar. There are increasing signs that the world is shifting towards a multi-polar system, with the euro, Chinese yuan, and possibly other currencies playing larger roles. In such a transitional period, gold’s historical role as a neutral, trusted store of value becomes immensely attractive. It is the one asset that is not tied to the economic fortunes or policies of a single nation.
This central bank demand provides a powerful, structural floor under the gold price. It is consistent, price-insensitive buying (they are not chasing momentum but executing a strategy) that is largely divorced from the short-term sentiment swings of the stock market. This is the "more rational calculation" that makes the current rally fundamentally different and potentially longer-lasting.
The Interest Rate Conundrum: Gold’s Old Nemesis Loses Its Bite
For years, the primary argument against gold was simple: it offers no yield. In a world of rising interest rates, where investors can earn a attractive, risk-free return on cash or government bonds, the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes prohibitive. The theory held that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hiking cycle from 2022 onward would crush the gold price.
It didn’t. Gold not only weathered the storm but continued its ascent. This paradox reveals another layer of the new rationale.
While nominal rates rose, real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) have been more ambiguous. Periods of high inflation meant that even with higher rates, the real return on cash and bonds was often negative or minimal. In such an environment, gold, as a traditional inflation hedge, retains its appeal.
More importantly, the market’s focus has shifted from the level of rates to their trajectory. There is a growing belief that the era of structurally higher interest rates is unsustainable, given the colossal levels of global debt. Servicing this debt becomes exponentially more difficult as rates rise. Therefore, many market participants are betting that the current rate cycle represents a peak, and that central banks will be forced to cut rates sooner rather than later, regardless of the inflation fight. Gold performs well in a environment of falling rates, and this anticipation is being priced in now.
Furthermore, high rates have begun to expose fragilities in the system, from regional banking crises in the U.S. to debt distress in emerging markets. In this sense, high rates haven't killed gold’s appeal; they have reinforced its role as a hedge against the consequences of high rates—namely, financial instability.
A Less Bright Shine for Stocks: Coexistence in a New Reality
So, what does this new, rationally-driven gold bull market mean for stocks? The relationship is no longer a simple inverse correlation. It is more nuanced, suggesting a future of coexistence rather than direct competition, but one where gold’s strength signals underlying headwinds that will dim the stellar returns equities enjoyed in the previous decade.
1. The End of the "Free Money" Era: The 2010s were built on a foundation of zero interest rates and quantitative easing. This environment was nirvana for growth stocks, particularly in the tech sector, as future earnings were discounted at very low rates, justifying sky-high valuations. The new macroeconomic order—one of higher structural inflation, larger government debt, and geopolitical fragmentation—is inherently less favorable to such valuation models. Gold’s strength is a symptom of this new order. It doesn’t mean stocks will collapse, but it does suggest that the era of effortless, broad-based double-digit annual returns is likely over. Returns will be harder won, more selective, and more volatile.
2. A Hedge Within a Portfolio, Not a Replacement: Investors are now likely to view gold not as a binary alternative to stocks, but as a critical component of a diversified portfolio. In a world of heightened geopolitical risk and uncertain monetary policy, holding a portion in gold provides stability. This means fund flows are not a simple zero-sum game between the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Institutions and individuals may increase allocations to both, using gold to mitigate the specific risks that now loom over the equity landscape.
3. Sectoral Winners and Losers: A strong gold price is a direct positive for gold mining stocks, a sector that has been largely neglected for years. This could lead to a resurgence in this niche part of the market. Conversely, the factors driving gold—higher inflation and rates—are headwinds for long-duration assets like high-flying tech stocks. The outperformance may shift towards value-oriented sectors, commodities, and industries with strong pricing power and tangible assets. The stock market’s shine may dim overall, but it will create bright spots in new areas.
4. The Signal of Sustained Uncertainty: Ultimately, a gold market driven by central bank de-dollarization and fiscal concerns is a barometer of persistent, low-grade global uncertainty. This is not the acute panic of 2008, but a chronic condition of fragmentation and distrust. Such an environment is not conducive to the explosive, confidence-driven growth that stock markets thrive on. It favors caution, resilience, and tangible value over speculative growth. Gold’s steady ascent is the clearest signal of this psychological shift.
Conclusion: A Duller but More Enduring Glow
The gold rally of the 2020s is not a siren call of an imminent market crash. It is the quiet, determined accumulation of a strategic asset by the world’s most powerful financial institutions. It is a vote of no confidence in the unfettered dominance of the current financial order and a bet on a more fragmented, uncertain future.
For stock market investors, this does not necessarily portend a bear market. Instead, it heralds a more challenging environment where the tailwinds of globalization and cheap money have reversed. The dazzling shine of the stock market’s previous decade is likely to be replaced by a duller, more realistic glow. Returns will be more modest, risks more pronounced, and the need for prudent diversification more critical than ever.
In this new era, gold and stocks will learn to coexist. The king of metals is no longer just a refuge for the fearful; it has become a strategic holding for the rational. Its decade may not shine with the same speculative brilliance as the stock market’s last bull run, but its light may well prove to be more enduring, illuminating a path through a landscape of greater complexity and risk. The lesson for investors is clear: the old rules are changing, and in this new game, gold holds a very strong hand.
XAUUSD GOLD OUTLOOK CHART ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook
Gold has been trading within an ascending channel, but recent price action suggests weakening bullish momentum near the resistance level around $3,680 – $3,700.
🔎 Key Insights:
• Price rejected resistance and is showing signs of bearish momentum.
• A breakdown below the channel could open the way to the first support near $3,600.
• If selling pressure continues, the next downside target is $3,500.
📊 Trading Plan:
• Bearish Bias below $3,680.
• Watch for confirmation on the break of $3,600.
• Short-term traders may look for selling opportunities toward $3,500.
• A sustained move above resistance would invalidate the bearish setup.
⚠️ Risk management is key – always use stop losses and adjust position sizes according to your risk tolerance
Go long on pullbacks; avoid chasing highsToday, as long as it breaks through 3780, I will stop going long and continue to monitor the market 📊. If it climbs to around 3800, we can attempt short positions and set the SL properly ⚠️
I reminded everyone multiple times yesterday to exit long positions at 3790 to avoid pullbacks 📉, and our stance remains unchanged today: we still favor looking for long opportunities during pullbacks 🐂—under no circumstances should we chase long positions at high levels ⚠️
Buy 3750 - 3755
TP 3760 - 3770 -3780
Sell 3798 - 3800
TP 3780 - 3770 - 3760
SL 3802
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
If the price remains below 3780, continue short selling.The daily chart closed with a long upper shadow, indicating a clear technical need for a correction. The Asian session fell as expected in the morning, repeatedly testing 3750. Those who followed the short selling could basically get nearly 150pips profit. Although a bullish structure appears in the hourly chart, the trend pressure above 3780 is still there in the short term. If gold fails to effectively break the trend pressure, it will fall back in the short term. The first support below can be seen at 3750. Once it falls below, gold will test the support of 3735. Currently, gold has rebounded again. As long as it fails to effectively break through and stabilize above 3780, we can still consider shorting gold.
Gold: still go long on pullbacksGold hit a high near 3790 yesterday, then retraced in the early morning. When prices rise a lot, everyone fears the high, but that’s no reason to short. Even with the pullback, yesterday’s big gains aren’t wiped out，so this isn’t weakness, but still strength. A rally followed by a pullback just means upward momentum slowed, not a top.
So you can wait if you fear the high: don’t chase longs or go long, but never go against the trend to short at the top. In trends, remember: follow the trend, follow the trend, follow the trend.
Today, gold tested 3750 in the morning then rebounded. Short-term momentum is still strong—no sustained pullback, and the market isn’t weak. Don’t short blindly; the bias is still long. Hold 3730, and gold will rally again. Even if 3730 breaks and it pulls back to 3700, it’s still a long chance.
Buy 3750 - 3760
TP 3770 - 3780 - 3790
SL 3745
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
