XAUUSD – Gold Trapped in Uncertainty Before the FOMC Market Overview:
Gold remains range-bound as US–China trade optimism tempers safe-haven demand, while expectations for further Fed rate cuts continue to weigh on the USD and cushion downside pressure.
The market is hesitant ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting this week, as traders await clear policy guidance before taking larger directional bets.
In short — macro tone is mixed:
Trade headlines reduce fear.
Fed expectations support gold.
Yet the chart shows indecision — a compression phase before expansion.
Technical Outlook (H1)
On the chart, gold continues to oscillate inside a tightening triangle, holding above the 4,050–4,060 Support Trendline (OBS BUY ZONE).
The liquidity structure shows buy-side absorption near the lows, while sellers remain active around the 4,186–4,260 resistance zones.
If gold maintains stability above 4,050, buyers may attempt to push toward the 4,107 neckline, and possibly test 4,186, before meeting the next supply layer at 4,260.
Conversely, a failure to hold support could expose the 4,002 and 3,930 liquidity pools below.
Key Technical Zones:
Support Trendline / OBS BUY ZONE: 4,058 – 4,050
Neckline / Local Resistance: 4,107 – 4,110
Reaction Zone (Fibo / Supply): 4,186 – 4,260
Deeper Liquidity Zone: 4,002 – 3,930
MMFLOW View – Plan for the Session
At this stage, the market is in accumulation mode.
As long as price stays above 4,050, MMFLOW maintains a neutral-to-bullish bias, focusing on how price reacts near the neckline at 4,107.
The ideal scenario would be:
A short-term pullback to absorb liquidity near 4,050,
Followed by a push toward 4,186,
Then a possible correction before the FOMC outcome.
However, if sellers manage to reclaim 4,050, a drop into 4,002 or even 3,930 could mark the next deep liquidity grab — setting up the base for a larger rally later.
Summary:
Gold remains stuck between macro hesitation and structural compression.
Liquidity is building on both sides — and the breakout direction will likely align with post-FOMC volatility.
🟡 Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish above 4,050.
Watch how the market defends 4,058 and reacts at 4,107–4,186.
📊 What’s your take — will FOMC give gold a reason to break free, or keep it trapped another week?
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🟣 Chart: XAUUSD H1 – Smart Money Flow structure showing liquidity sweep, compression triangle, and Fibo confluence zones before the FOMC decision.
