Big cycle M double top, beware of big pullbackGood morning, bros. Last night we proposed a strategy of short selling in batches if gold rises first and touches the upper pressure level of 4365-4380, and achieved good profits. After today's opening, gold rebounded to this range several times, and it can be said that it has basically recovered the losses since last Friday. However, the intraday rebounds have failed to effectively break through this resistance range. If the bulls want to fully counterattack and move towards the 4400 mark, they need to break through the upper resistance. Judging from the long-term trend, the market has a tendency to form an M-shaped double top, so be cautious in chasing the rise in intraday trading and beware of possible large market corrections.
Judging from the short-term trend, the resistance near 4350 is still obvious. If the European session rebounds to this level again without breaking through, the bull market will be difficult to sustain in the short term. We can consider trying a light short position once, but be sure to set a stop loss. At the same time, if the short-term support of 4330-4320 below cannot be held, gold will fall further to test yesterday's rebound low of 4305-4295. Once 4305-4295 is breached, it may trigger a technical sell-off, pushing the gold price to accelerate its correction to 4240 or even the 4220 neckline.
Trade intraday at key levels, but be wary of market whipsaws.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Xauusdupdates
XAU/USD – Gold Technical Rebound Prepares for Next Waveb]🔍 Market Context
After reaching a peak at the ATH GOLD 4,391 USD region, gold has undergone a technical correction — reflecting temporary profit-taking following a strong upward trend.
The market structure still maintains a bullish bias as the support zones below (FVG + OB) remain intact and untested.
Currently, the price is hovering around 4,325 USD, indicating that selling pressure has weakened.
Buyers are likely to return at two strategic zones below — where institutional money (Smart Money) typically accumulates positions before the next upward wave.
💎 Technical Analysis
ATH GOLD: 4,391 USD
Liquidity Zone $$$: 4,465 – 4,424 USD → the upper liquidity zone, the main target for the next upward wave.
FVG Zone: 4,284 – 4,267 USD → an unfilled gap, likely to be retested.
Order Block Zone: 4,244 – 4,230 USD → deep discount zone confluence with Fibo 0.786, high probability of strong reaction.
Liquidity Clear $$$: 4,186 – 4,190 USD → the last defense zone of the main upward trend.
Overall structure remains bullish ; the current decline is merely a phase of adjustment to “accumulate liquidity” before continuing the upward momentum.
📈 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ BUY Setup #1 – FVG Zone 4,267 USD
Entry: 4,267 – 4,270
SL: 4,255
TP: 4,330 → 4,366 → 4,391
✅ Condition: Confirming bullish candle (rejection / engulfing bullish) at the FVG zone or a small BoS appears on M15.
➡️ Short-term “buy-the-dip” setup, leveraging the unfilled FVG zone — where technical buyers often initiate positions first.
2️⃣ BUY Setup #2 – Order Block Zone 4,244 USD
Entry: 4,244 – 4,230
SL: 4,210
TP: 4,284 → 4,366 → 4,391 → 4,424
✅ Condition: Strong confirming candle (engulfing bullish) or a retracement pattern breaking a small BoS back up.
➡️ Swing-buy setup at deep discount zone — confluence of OB + Fibo 0.786, high probability and optimal R:R.
⚠️ Risk Management
Avoid FOMO buying in the middle of the range (4,320–4,340).
Prioritize waiting for clear reactions at 4,267 and 4,244 before entering trades.
If the price closes an H1 candle below 4,210 → pause all buy orders, re-evaluate price action at 4,186.
Maintain moderate trading volume during the current rebound phase.
💬 Conclusion
Gold is in a phase of healthy technical correction within a major upward trend.
The two zones 4,267 USD (FVG Zone) and 4,244 USD (Order Block Zone) are key “accumulation” areas for large capital.
When bullish confirmation signals appear, these will be safe buy positions before gold heads back to the peak 4,391 – 4,465 USD .
👉 Reasonable Strategy:
Buy at 4,267 – 4,270 USD if reversal confirmation occurs.
Buy at 4,244 – 4,230 USD if a strong OB reaction signal appears.
🔥 “Smart money waits at precise levels — not at the top. The next gold wave will emerge between 4.267 and 4.244.”
XAUUSD Pullback in Play Focus on 4330 SupportXAUUSD shows early signs of bearish correction after failing to hold above 4380. The pair is forming lower highs on intraday charts, signaling a potential swing move toward 4330 if momentum continues to favor sellers.
Key Levels:
Sell Entry: 4365
Take Profit: 4330
Stop Loss: 4380
Reasoning:
Technically, the structure has shifted to the downside, with bearish candles confirming pressure under 4380 resistance. A break below short-term support suggests the start of a corrective leg toward 4330.
Fundamentally, gold remains under pressure as U.S. dollar strength and firm Treasury yields weigh on investor sentiment. Traders await key U.S. inflation data, which could further influence gold’s short term direction.
Disclaimer:
This content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trade at your own risk and follow your individual plan.
Gold Holding Gains Ahead of Key US CPI DataGold extends its bullish momentum in early Asian trading, hovering near $4,370, supported by rate-cut expectations from the Fed and ongoing US government shutdown concerns, which continue to pressure the USD.
According to CME FedWatch, markets are now pricing in a 99% probability of another rate cut next week — a strong catalyst for gold bulls.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, reinforcing the medium-term uptrend.
However, all eyes are on the US September CPI report due later this week.
A hotter-than-expected reading could temporarily lift the USD and trigger short-term volatility in gold prices.
🔍 MMFlow Technical Outlook
Gold is currently consolidating around the $4,320–$4,370 range after reaching the ATH zone.
Price action shows a clear liquidity sweep at the highs, followed by a minor retracement — still within the bullish structure.
The main trendline remains intact, suggesting that any dip toward $4,305–$4,260 may attract new buyers.
⚙️ Trading Plan (MMFlow View)
BUY SCALP Setup
Entry: 4,302 – 4,300 (½ volume)
Stop Loss: 4,292
Take Profit: 4,310 → 4,315 → 4,320 → 4,330 → 4,340 → 4,350+
BUY ZONE (Swing)
Entry: 4,260 – 4,258
Stop Loss: 4,252
Take Profit: 4,265 → 4,270 → 4,280 → 4,290 → 4,300+
📈 Buy setups remain favored as long as price holds above 4,260.
Intraday sell reactions near 4,360–4,378 are short-term only — watch for liquidity grabs and bullish re-entry opportunities.
⚡️ Key MMFlow Zones
CP Down Zone / OBS Sell Zone: 4,360
ATH Liquidity Sell Zone: 4,448
Retest Trendline / OBS Buy Zone: 4,305
End FVG Uptrend / OBS Buy Zone: 4,260
Sentiment: 🟢 Bullish Bias
Bias Confirmation: CPI Data & Fed Rate Expectations
Strategy: Buy-the-Dip → Target Liquidity Above 4,370–4,380
🔥 Stay patient — let liquidity drive the next leg. MMFlow tracks smart money zones, not emotions.
Gold Analysis – Volatility Rules the GameYesterday marked another strong bullish session for Gold, as the price completely erased Friday’s losses, confirming that buyers are far from done. Regardless of how high the market has already climbed, momentum remains firmly on the bullish side.
Technically, Gold managed to reclaim and break above the 4285–4300 resistance zone, which triggered a sharp acceleration toward the recent all-time high around 4380.
At the time of writing, the market is undergoing a normal retracement, which is a healthy technical reaction after such an aggressive move. The 4300 area has now turned into key short-term support, and as long as bulls defend this level, the probability of a new ATH remains high.
From a trading perspective, however, volatility has reached extreme levels. This type of price action often favors large players with fundamental reasons rather than discretionary traders. For that reason, I prefer to stay on the sidelines today, waiting for volatility to stabilize before engaging again.
4365 Achieved Excellent profits Booked [1350 PIPS Gained]Thanks to traders who followed and stay Active with me on bullish rally
As highlighted in yesterday’s session update:
My Position:
The ongoing bull rally has played out perfectly, with both of my targets achieved ahead of schedule. I identified strong support around $4,220 & 4190 along condition H4 Candle for bullish rally. Iinitiated aggressive swing buys from that zone. When $4,190 was retested, I held off for a healthy pullback before re-entering.
At $4205& $4,225, I scaled in aggressively (four entries) aiming for $4,345, which was reached — locking in solid overnight gains.
I’m pleased with the overall performance during this multi-month bullish phase and plan to keep accumulating on dips until the $4,490 level is reached from my main re-entry zones.
Additional Tip:
Once again, I caution traders — avoid counter-trend selling.
Many get trapped trying to short Gold in a strong uptrend. Stay aligned with the trend — it’s still firmly bullish.🚀
Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to youMonetary Policy Easing Expectations: From "Probabilistic Consensus" to "Imminent Implementation"
The strongest driver for going long on gold currently lies in the high certainty of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve. According to the latest CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in October has reached 99.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged stands at a mere 0.6%. Furthermore, the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut by December has soared to 98.6%.
This expectation is not a result of excessive market optimism but is backed by solid data: the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index has continued to decline, providing the "inflation under control" premise for monetary policy easing. Meanwhile, the slowing growth of the U.S. labor market and the weakening manufacturing PMI have reinforced the necessity of "preventive rate cuts."
Monetary policy easing directly acts on the core of gold pricing—real interest rates. The real yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has stabilized in a low range below 1.8%. Historical data shows that when real interest rates enter a downward trajectory, gold typically follows a pattern of "rising by 15%-20% for every 0.5 percentage point decline in real interest rates." The clarity of the current interest rate path provides the most crucial macroeconomic safety cushion for the long-gold strategy.
Today's Gold Trading Strategy
xauusd@buy4350~4355
pt:4375~4380
sl:4330
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
Gold has once again tested the $4,380 resistance zone, where repeated rejections highlight a strong supply barrier. Price is now consolidating toward the $4,293–$4,301 support zone, which coincides with a rising trendline. If buyers defend this level, the bullish structure remains valid with potential to revisit $4,377–$4,384. A deeper pullback below $4,285 would weaken the bullish outlook and expose $4,260–$4,270.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: 4,293–4,301 (support retest)
Stop Loss: 4,288
Take Profit: 4,377 / 4,384
R:R: ≈ 1 : 6.18
🌍 Macro Background
Gold’s rally has stalled near $4,380 as markets shift focus to US-China trade talks. While safe-haven demand remains strong, optimism around potential negotiations has allowed the US Dollar to recover modestly. Meanwhile, the prolonged US government shutdown and Trump’s threat of a 155% tariff on China from November 1 add fresh uncertainty, supporting the case for safe-haven flows. Additionally, markets are pricing in two more Fed rate cuts this year, keeping gold well-bid on dips. Investors will closely monitor US CPI data on Friday and earnings from major US companies for directional cues.
🗝️ Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 4,377 / 4,384 / 4,390
Support: 4,301 / 4,293 / 4,260
📌 Trade Summary
Gold remains in a buy-on-dips mode as long as $4,301 support holds. Short-term pullbacks offer potential entry opportunities toward $4,380 resistance, but repeated rejections at this zone highlight the importance of risk management.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
XAU/USD | The Art of Trendline Liquidity & OB ReactionGold continues to respect the structural rhythm of Smart Money flow. Price recently formed Equal Highs (EQH) before a potential retracement into OB + FVG confluence zone, where liquidity beneath trendline support remains untapped.
The idea anticipates a sweep of short-term liquidity before a possible bullish continuation — aligning with the current market structure shift.
⚙️ Concepts used: OB | FVG | EQH/EQL | Trendline Liquidity | Market Structure
🧠 This idea is shared purely for educational and analytical purposes — not a signal.
🔁 Feel free to share your perspective in the comments — every chart tells a story!
GOLD|When the market loses balance, dominance leaves a footprint🔍 Market Context
After establishing a short-term peak in the 4,385 – 4,372 USD range, gold has entered a phase of strong technical correction , with consecutive red candles breaking the short-term upward structure.
The sellers temporarily dominate, pushing the price through the H1 upward trendline. However, the support zone below (Liquidity Zone + Order Block Bullish) is beginning to show absorption force, indicating the possibility that buyers might return at discounted price levels.
💎 Technical Analysis
Previous Bullish BoS: confirms the main trend is still long-term bullish .
FVG Down Zone: 4,285 – 4,260 USD → an unfilled price balance area during the decline, potentially a place for price to retrace to “fill the gap” before choosing a direction.
Liquidity Zone $$$: 4,222 – 4,218 USD → a short-term support area where new buying liquidity appears.
Order Block Bullish: 4,203 – 4,185 USD → a confluence area between OB and Fibo 0.786, where large capital might return.
Deep Bullish OB: 4,142 – 4,128 USD → the final defense zone for the main upward trend.
Order Block Bearish: 4,372 – 4,385 USD → a critical resistance area, likely to react if the price retraces.
The current structure shows gold is in a retracement – liquidity rebalancing phase, lacking sufficient signals to reverse the trend.
📈 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ Main Scenario – Buy reaction at Liquidity Zone 4,222 – 4,203 USD
Entry: 4,222 – 4,203
SL: 4,185
TP: 4,260 → 4,318 → 4,372
✅ Condition: Strong rejection candles (rejection / engulfing bullish) appear at the support zone or small reversal BoS.
➡️ This is a “buy the dip” setup following the main trend, leveraging the liquidity zone and confluence OB.
2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Sell reaction at FVG Down 4,285 – 4,260 USD
Entry: 4,260 – 4,285
SL: 4,300
TP: 4,222 → 4,203
✅ Condition: Strong bearish candles or rejection signals appear at the FVG zone.
➡️ This setup is for scalping traders or short-term shorts in the unfilled price balance area.
⚠️ Risk Management
Do not FOMO buy when the price has not confirmed the 4,222 zone.
If the price breaks below 4,185 → wait for a re-test to continue selling towards the 4,128 zone.
Maintain moderate volume, as the market is in a rebalancing phase – liquidity is still noisy.
💬 Conclusion
Gold is in a transitional phase after a strong decline .
The 4,222 – 4,203 USD zone will be key to determining whether the medium-term upward trend continues.
If this zone holds, gold is likely to retest the 4,318 – 4,372 USD range.
👉 Reasonable Strategy:
Buy reaction at 4,222 – 4,203 USD when confirmed.
Sell technically at FVG 4,260 – 4,285 USD if clear rejection appears.
🔥 “When the market loses balance, the strongest side will leave a trace – and this time the trace lies around the 4,220 USD zone.”
Gold Update – Key Level Respected, Here’s What’s NextGOLD (XAUUSD) Update – Reaction + Next Steps
Price played out exactly as expected from the previous idea. Gold tapped into the key demand zone, grabbed liquidity, and reacted strongly.
🟡 What Happened:
Price tested the
Liquidity lows was taken
Clear rejection with momentum showing (bullish) strength
📌 What I’m Watching Next:
If price holds above , I’ll be looking for continuation into the next psych level 4500..
If price fails to hold, a pullback retest towards is likely before another move
Waiting for a clean break + retest structure before taking a position
🎯 Trading Plan:
No rush entries – waiting for confirmation
Targeting the next PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL 4500 once structure is clear
Not financial advice – just how I’m reading gold right now.
Like or comment if you want updates when price taps entry levels ✅
ElDoradoFx PREMIUM – GOLD ANALYSIS (21/10/2025, ASIA SESSION)Gold saw a strong rebound during the US session, rallying from the previous session’s corrective low near 4318 and pushing back toward the key resistance area around 4380–4385. This confirms buyers are still active, but price is currently testing a rejection zone, indicating potential exhaustion near recent highs. The Asia session opens with consolidation after a strong bullish impulse, suggesting either a continuation move if momentum sustains or a healthy pullback opportunity.
⸻
📊 2️⃣ Technical Breakdown
📅 D1 (Daily)
• Structure remains strongly bullish, printing higher highs and higher lows.
• Candle closed bullish but with upper wick rejection near 4381 (previous weak high).
• RSI remains in overbought territory near 80, signalling risk of short-term corrective moves.
⏳ H1
• Price broke above the bearish intraday channel structure and retested 4320–4318 demand zone before impulsing upward.
• Current consolidation sits below 4380–4385 resistance, awaiting liquidity.
• 50 EMA and 200 EMA remain below price, preserving bullish structure, but momentum is slowing.
📉 15M–5M
• Micro consolidation forming below 4380, indicating indecision.
• MACD histogram showing fading buying strength; possible retracement early Asia before continuation.
• Short-term liquidity resting under 4345–4335, aligning with potential retracement area.
⸻
📐3️⃣ Fibonacci Analysis (Last confirmed swing)
🔹 Swing Low: 4318
🔹 Swing High: 4381
📍Golden Zone (61.8%–50%): 4345 – 4358
✅ This aligns with prior structure + EMA support → high confluence reload zone for bulls if retested.
⸻
🎯4️⃣ High-Probability Trade Scenarios
✅ Scenario A: Buy (Continuation – Preferred if pullback holds)
👉 Entry Zone: 4358–4345 (Golden Zone / EMA confluence)
🎯 TP1: 4381 TP2: 4395 TP3: 4410
🛑 SL: Below 4335
⚠️ Scenario B: Aggressive Breakout Buy
👉 Break Above: 4385 (clear candle close + retest)
🎯 TP1: 4395 TP2: 4410 TP3: 4425
🛑 SL: Below 4370
📉 Scenario C: Sell (Countertrend – Only if rejection confirmed)
👉 Break Below: 4335 (structure failure + retest)
🎯 TP1: 4318 TP2: 4305 TP3: 4285
🛑 SL: Above 4355
⸻
📰5️⃣ Fundamental Watch (Asia)
✅ No major Asian macro catalysts.
📉 DXY stabilizing near 106.00 after mild drop → neutral to slightly bullish for gold.
👀 US PMI data later may create pre-Asia caution.
⸻
📍6️⃣ Key Technical Levels
Type Levels
Major Resistance 4381 / 4395 / 4410
Intraday Resistance 4370 / 4385
Golden Zone 4358 – 4345
Major Support 4335 / 4318
Deeper Support 4305 / 4285
Trendline Support Still intact from 4318
⸻
📈7️⃣ Analyst Summary
Gold regained bullish momentum but is now stalling under a key rejection zone. Overbought conditions suggest a retracement is likely before continuation. The safest high-probability setup is a pullback into the Fibonacci Golden Zone for continuation buys. A confirmed break above 4385 opens clean bullish continuation; however, a failure and breakdown below 4335 signals bearish control.
⸻
✅8️⃣ Final Bias Summary
Condition Bias
Above 4358 ✅ Bullish (Continuation Zone)
Above 4385 🚀 Strong Bullish Breakout
Between 4358–4335 ⚖️ Neutral / Waiting for direction
Below 4335 🔻 Bearish corrective wave expected
⸻
🥇 ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 2.0 – PERFORMANCE 20/10/2025 🥇
📊 GOLD TRADE RESULTS:
🟢 BUY +20 pips
🟢 BUY +210 pips
⚪️ SELL LIMIT – Deleted (No Entry)
⚪️ BUY LIMIT – Not Triggered
🔻 SELL +110 pips
🟢 BUY +150 pips
🟢 BUY +90 pips
---
💰 TOTAL GOLD PIPS WON: ✅ +580 pips
📈 RESULT: 7 Signals → 5 Wins | 0 SL | 2 No-Entry
🎯 ACCURACY (on active trades): 100% Wins on executed signals
---
🔥 Clean momentum day with strong BUY-side follow-through and precise executions.
If you followed along — your account should be smiling 📈💎
👏 Congratulations if you profited! ✅✅✅🚀🚀🚀
Buy Near Secondary Support, Beware of Double Top FormationThe price has entered the historical high area above 60 based on short-term support, and the 2H pattern is still bullish, but we must pay attention to selling pressure.
Take the secondary support (yellow line in the figure) as the main reference and go long on pullback.
XAU/USD Bullish Reversal from Buy Zone – Targeting $4,392t: Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD)
Timeframe: 30-minute
Current Price: $4,253.975
Trend: Recently broke below an ascending channel but bounced from a support zone.
🔍 Key Features on the Chart:
Ascending Channel (Yellow lines)
Price was previously moving inside a well-defined ascending channel.
It broke below the channel, suggesting a possible trend shift or correction.
Buy Zone (Purple Box ~ $4,200 - $4,220)
A demand zone where buyers stepped in.
Price bounced strongly from this zone, indicating support is respected.
Projected Price Path (Blue Zigzag Arrow)
Indicates a possible bullish wave structure (higher highs and higher lows).
Suggests a continuation of the uptrend after the correction.
Target Level: $4,392.539 (Blue Line)
A projected resistance or take-profit zone.
Price is expected to reach this level based on the bullish scenario.
🧠 Interpretation:
Bullish Bias: The chart suggests that the correction might be over after finding support in the "Buy Zone".
Entry Zone: Around $4,200–$4,220 appears to be a strong buy area.
Target: $4,392.539 (approx. +140 points from current level).
Risk Consideration: If price drops below the buy zone significantly, the bullish bias may be invalidated.
✅ Summary of Strategy:
Potential Buy: From current levels or on pullback toward the $4,220–$4,200 zone.
Stop-Loss: Below the buy zone (e.g., under $4,180 or based on your risk tolerance).
Target: Around $4,392.
If you'd like, I can help you:
Calculate potential risk/reward.
Convert this into a trading plan.
Monitor updates (with live data).
Gold has now broken through the resistance level at 4280As our mentioned before, Gold has now broken through the resistance level at 4280 and continues to rise,It may form a short-term bottom structure and further test the 4362 level. A break above the previous high of 4379 would open the door to further upside.
Buy 4280 - 4285
TP 4300 - 4310 - 4320
SL 4270
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
XAU/USD – Bearish Setup at Key Resistance (4,360–4,380 Zone)Current Price: 4,347.85
Market Structure:
Price is currently testing a strong resistance zone around 4,360 – 4,380.
Previous attempts to break this area resulted in sharp rejections to the downside.
The chart suggests a potential double-top formation developing near the resistance level.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Sell Setup)
Sell Zone: 4,360 – 4,380
Direction: 🔴 SELL
Target: 🎯 4,221.50
Stop Loss: 🔻 Above 4,390
📊 Technical Rationale:
The resistance zone has been tested multiple times, showing strong selling pressure.
A rejection from this level could trigger a short-term correction toward the 4,221 target.
Confirmation of the move will occur if price breaks below the recent local low near 4,300, validating the double-top structure.
⚠️ Invalidation:
A 1H candle close above 4,390 would invalidate the bearish setup and may open the way toward 4,420+.
✅ Summary:
Watch for a rejection pattern (such as a bearish engulfing or pin bar) in the 4,360–4,380 zone.
A confirmed rejection provides a short opportunity toward 4,221 with a favorable risk–reward ratio. CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! COMEX:GC1! CBOT_MINI:YM1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! NYMEX:CL1! COMEX:SI1! CME:BTC1! CBOT_MINI:MYM1!
The 4400 era is coming, and the 4500 era is just beginning.Judging from the current trend, the middle track of the hourly line and the 4H line are already around 4280. As time goes by, the lower low point is constantly rising. We can appropriately increase the expected retracement target and participate in long trading when it retraces to around 4390-4380. But at the same time, we also need to pay attention to the short-term support formed by 4330-4320. If it falls back to this level in the evening and shows a clear stop in the decline, we can also consider entering the market in advance and going long on gold in this range. The upper pressure continues to focus on 4365-4380. If gold rebounds first, you can also consider shorting gold appropriately.
OANDA:XAUUSD
XAU/USD – Key Resistance Zone Test Ahead of Breakout DecisionCME_MINI:NQ1! GPW:FW201! GPW:FCDR1! GPW:FDNP1! GPW:FW401! GPW:FPEO1! GPW:FCDR1! GPW:FALE1! GPW:FMBK1! Gold Spot (XAU/USD)
Timeframe: 15-minute chart
🔍 Technical Analysis Summary
1. Trend Context
The chart shows a recent downtrend after a strong bullish rally.
A descending channel is drawn with two “TRADE LINE” boundaries — upper and lower.
Price is currently trading near the upper boundary of this bearish channel.
2. Resistance Zone
The highlighted resistance area around $4,270–$4,280 aligns with:
The upper trade line of the channel.
A previous support-turned-resistance level.
This makes it a key decision zone for potential reversals or breakouts.
3. Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout (Blue Path)
If price breaks and closes above the resistance zone and upper channel:
A bullish move could target around $4,382 (the marked upper target).
Confirmation would come with a retest of the broken resistance that holds as new support.
This move aligns with a trend reversal structure (break of market structure).
4. Scenario 2 – Bearish Rejection (Purple Path)
If price fails to break above the resistance and gets rejected:
Expect a pullback continuation within the descending channel.
The next downside target is around $4,185, as labeled on the chart.
This would maintain the short-term bearish momentum.
🧭 Summary Outlook
Scenario Condition Target Bias
Bullish breakout Break & close above $4,280 $4,382 Reversal potential
Bearish rejection Rejection from resistance zone $4,185 Continuation of downtrend
⚠️ Key Watchpoints
Watch for price action confirmation (strong candle close) near the resistance zone.
A false breakout is possible; confirmation via retest is crucial.
Volatility spikes around this level could indicate institutional interest.
Gold Weekly Review — Historic Volatility & Next Week’s Key LevelThis week, gold experienced a historic level of volatility, a truly remarkable movement that left many traders astonished.
During the session, prices tested the 4200–4180 support zone for the first time. The nearly $200 decline effectively released the heavy selling pressure that had been building up in recent days, while also creating new opportunities for bullish entries.
As expected, once prices entered the support region, they rebounded strongly, closing above 4250 with a recovery of nearly $70 (all of which I had clearly indicated in advance).
From the 30-minute chart, the candlestick structure still suggests further upside potential. However, given the weekend uncertainty, any unexpected bearish news could trigger a pullback when markets reopen on Monday.
If no major negative developments occur, bullish momentum may continue to drive gold higher. Resistance is likely to be concentrated around the 4280–4300 zone — once price enters this region, both short-term buyers and trapped long positions may start adjusting their holdings, which could increase the likelihood of a short-term correction.
On the 4-hour chart, this nearly $500 rally has just completed its first test of the MA30 support. The MA5 (near 4270) currently acts as the key resistance, followed by MA10 (around 4292).
If during consolidation, the price can hold above MA20 (around 4246), it will likely attract renewed buying interest, potentially driving prices back toward 4380 or even higher.
Conversely, if prices remain under pressure and fail to stay above the MA20, attention should shift to the MA30 support. A break below this level could open the way to a test of the MA60(near 4100).
Therefore, for next week’s trading, these levels will be our key focus points.
As I mentioned earlier this week, the medium-term long positions have been closed, and we will wait for new opportunities to emerge. If the market drops toward 4100 or even lower, I will consider re-entering long positions from those lower levels.
A friendly reminder — always align your trading strategy with your own risk tolerance and financial situation. Medium-term setups require patience and strong risk-bearing capacity. If your current condition doesn’t allow for that, please avoid blind following to prevent unnecessary losses.
Lastly, note that gold still has two unfilled gaps around 4019–4024 and 3887–3898. If the trend turns bearish, these gaps may present potential trading opportunities.
That’s all for today.
We’ll discuss specific intraday trading opportunities when the market opens.
If you have any questions or need guidance, feel free to leave me a message.
Short-term volatility, how to plan for the next market trendGold is currently continuing its upward momentum. In the short term, we will first focus on whether gold can break through 4266. The intraday market has rebounded to this point many times and encountered resistance and fell back. If it is difficult to break through in the short term, the gold price will continue to fluctuate widely. On the contrary, if it can effectively break through 4266, continue to pay attention to the upper resistance range of 4280-4300. When the first rebound touches this resistance range, consider shorting gold in batches with light positions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold Analysis: Break Above $4,293 Could Trigger a New HighHi guys!
Gold has been moving inside a clear ascending channel, respecting both its upper and lower boundaries. Recently, we saw a double top formation near the upper trendline , which triggered a corrective move down to the $4,190–$4,200 support zone, an area that has already shown strong buying interest.
After the rebound from this support, the price is now aiming toward the $4,293 resistance.
👉 If the price breaks and holds above $4,293 , it’s likely to continue the bullish momentum and head toward a new higher high inside the channel.
Overall, the structure remains bullish as long as the price stays above $4,190 , with the next key resistance at $4,293 being the level to watch for a potential continuation of the uptrend.
Gold’s bullish bias remains supported by the ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over global interest rate paths, and softening U.S. dollar. Investors are also increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset, especially amid concerns about economic slowdown and central bank gold purchases remaining strong.
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