XMR/USDT - Rounded Bottom Signals: Breakout New Bullish Cycle?XMR has finally broken out of one of the strongest technical structures on the daily timeframe: a multi-month rounded bottom, a pattern that typically marks the transition from long distribution phases into new bullish cycles.
After establishing a stable base near $235, price has been rising gradually, forming a clean upward curvature that reflects a steady shift from selling pressure toward sustained accumulation. A rounded structure this smooth rarely appears unless buyers have been consistently absorbing supply for a long period.
Now, the market has touched and pierced the major historical resistance at $426, a level that has capped price for months. This breakout validates the pattern and suggests the market is shifting from consolidation into expansion.
The quick spike toward $471 shows aggressive buying interest but also marks this region as a liquidity cluster that will play a crucial role in determining continuation. As long as price holds above the $420–426 rim, buyers maintain full control and the bullish probability remains dominant.
Given the depth of the pattern at roughly $191, the measured breakout target sits around $615–$620, which is structurally reasonable if the breakout is confirmed and $426 flips into reliable support.
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Pattern Explanation (Clear and In-Depth)
Pattern name: Rounded Bottom / Cup (pure cup, no handle formation).
Formation duration: Multi-month, which increases reliability.
Characteristics: stable bottom, consistent upward curvature, repeated rejections at the same horizontal level → market completing a major accumulation phase.
Breakout confirmation: daily candle closing above the rim → shift in medium-term market structure.
Large rounded bottoms like this are often precursors to trend reversals and are known for initiating strong directional moves.
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Bullish Scenario (Primary Outlook)
1. Price forms a clean daily close above $426.
2. Ideal retest occurs at $420–430 with lower-wick support and rising volume.
3. If confirmed, continuation targets become:
$471 (local liquidity zone)
$520 (psychological resistance)
$618 (measured move) as the main structural target
4. As long as price holds above the ascending support and does not close below $420, the bullish structure remains intact.
Market narrative: buyers are controlling the tempo, and momentum is transitioning decisively upward.
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Bearish Scenario (If Breakout Fails)
1. Breakout becomes a false breakout if price closes back below $420.
2. This would expose deeper corrective zones:
$380–400 (ascending support)
$340
$300
Even a return to the base of the pattern in a worst-case scenario
3. Bearish confirmation signals include: low breakout volume, repeated upper-wick rejections, and daily closes below the rim.
Market narrative: buyers lose control, and the asset slips back into prolonged accumulation.
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Additional Insight
A rounded bottom of this scale is more than a pattern; it often reflects a major shift in market psychology. It typically marks the transition from weak, low-interest conditions to renewed investor engagement. When paired with a breakout at a long-standing resistance, this formation is one of the strongest signals for potential medium-to-long-term trend continuation.
For XMR, the structure shows that selling pressure that dominated earlier in the year has faded, and buyers are beginning to establish a clear advantage.
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