ZOOM
HYPOCRISY OF REGULATORS!!Hi Everyone! It has been a while since I have posted! I have been sitting in the side lines and watching how things were playing out. The call for sitting on the side lines, was due to deciding that the uncertainty caused by the corona virus weighed more than the Fed printing machine in my head. Yet still to this day I stand with my decision, and seeing, Warren Buffet, sitting in the side lines with $138 billion cash and equivalent on hand makes my decision more justifiable. Yet I see a lot of people who believe we are back on track, since the markets are all most back at all time highs. And I do hope that I have made the wrong decision that I have made the wrong decision. However, I do not believe we have bottomed and done with this crisis. I do not want to state the obvious and go into arguments between Fed actions and unemployment rate and so on. Yet I want to focus on what are companies doing.
The other day Wells Fargo decided to stop accepting loan applications from independent car dealers. This basically indicates that they believe that these loans will most likely default and they don't want any exposure to it. Another news is credit card companies are lowering card limits. This is another indication that companies believing that people wont be able to pay money they have borrowed, and do not forget these are the people who they have approved, the limits they had. Even though there are plenty news like these, the one that catches the eye is regards new stock issuance. In April U.S. companies sold around $20 billion. These number has spiked to $60 billion in May. They are taking advantage of the rebound and unloading their shares to retail investors who believe the worst is behind.
Lets come to the headline. Before stating anything just want to say that if I would have to I identify as anything, I see my self as Darwinist. Let natural selection do its job and do not intervene. That being said if regulators intervene when price drops more than 7% and puts in circuit breakers in place, to protect investors from panic selling; they should also put in circuit breakers when a stock increase more than 7% a day to prevent panic buying, A.K.A FOMO. You do not need to dive in to ZMs 10K and do a deep dive to understand something is off. Just look at its PE. Its PE ratio is 1300!!! It means that if you buy it today and it keeps making the same amount of money for ever. You will have to wait 1300 years for it to make that money. If it multiples its earning by 10, that still gives you 130 years. Yet I see people posting "BUY THE DEEP" after todays loss. The hype might continue, however it will be a hard thing to watch when it falls.
The only thing that I could say to you guys is...
As always this is not an financial advice , this is just a thought!
Stay safe,
$ZM - nice demand zone on the hourlyPrice screamed away from the $168 level which tells me there could be a lot of un-filled buy orders at that level (demand). Price has yet to approach this level again and when it does I will trigger a buy order. My take-profit will be at least 3 times my stop-loss (red line).
ZOOM, $ZM, SHORT? NOT YET!!!After a successful short term short trade, I am eyeing ZM for another potential short, but nowhere close to the current level.
Don't get me wrong, I believe that Zoom is highly over-valued. But it would not be smart to try to gauge it's movement, long or short, currently.
Prices are shooting up due to expectations on a positive earnings report that is due Tuesday close.
You may be tempted to short ahead of earnings, because I am too.
But that would be too risky, even if you short today and price immediately slip 20% after earnings. Hindsight doesn't alter the risk you have taken.
Risk is not defined something that is defined after the facts, rather, before.
So, what if stock sank 10, 20% after earnings?
- as a trader, you should not think, 'damn, I should've shorted', because you couldn't have known the outcome.
- you only knew the risks. You lacked something to trade off of, and thus if you had traded, you would've been gambling.
- If you bet all of your money on a coin flip, and had you won, you got lucky.
- You didn't, and weren't capable of, predicting the outcome. And thus regardless of the outcome, I would call anything stupid to bet their life saving on something like a coin flip.
Where does ZM go from here?
- I don't know
- I hope it goes to 246.7 - that's where I would closely watch for a short, because that's where I am most comfortable with the risk/reward.
- If it doesn't get there, I am perfectly happy, nothing lost.
- But I do not want to get involved in what is currently a bubble that has the potential to suffocate you or blow up in your face.
Follow for updates.
Careful trading!
zoom in on ZM
From what I think is reasonable, there is disclosed chart for your consideration.
Waiting for the Q2 EPS.
Can expect institutions to start taking profits now with small sell-offs.
4-6% jump for a few minutes after the earnings call and then a 13% decline, till the potential BUY levels.
Although, the US protests are not a direct threat to ZM, still keep your eyes on it.
14% unemployment is about to kick in.
Twlo bounce play
What is TWLO?
Twilio Inc ., together with its subsidiaries, provides a cloud communications platform that enables developers to build, scale, and operate communications within software applications in the United States and internationally. Its customer engagement platform provides a set of application programming interfaces that handle the higher level communication logic needed for nearly every type of customer engagement, as well as enable developers to embed voice, messaging, and video capabilities into their applications.
Entry $180
Target 185
stoploss 177
Why Zoom doesn't benefit from a vaccine.Zoom has benefited greatly from stay-at-home ordinances. Considering that the SPX and major indexes have been very bullish today at news of a possibility of a vaccine, Zoom is not reacting with major movements one way or another. This news of a vaccine however is most likely nothing more than hype and excitement, so I'm tempted to switch my short to long if Zoom re-enters the trendline. Set your stop-losses tight, within 5-10 dollars of market price to be safe.
This popular video conferencing app that is likely to follow a similar trajectory as Skype. Currently Zoom is free and ad-free, but if the company gets desperate for revenue they may implement advertising. In TA the weekly graph breaks its trend line, this does not bode well with the upward trajectory the company has been experiencing.
The price per ZM is very expensive thanks to the virus making their application the favorite for teachers and business conferencing. I still think Zoom has potential to continue to be a major player in the conferencing application market so make sure to set stop losses if you go short. If the stock price rebounds into the weekly trend line it may be an indicator to switch to long.
I do not recommend playing this market if you don't want to take high risk. The price can move roughly 20-30 dollars from where it currently is.
Good luck and happy trading.
Tesla May Rip Toward $1000Yesterday, U.S. equities closed in the positive after posting losses early in the trading session. It was an impressive rally off the lows, with strong buying across the board. Notably, market leaders such as Tesla and Zoom were able to hold support during the decline, further cementing the bullish case for more gains in the coming weeks. This morning we look at Tesla (TSLA), Zoom (ZM) and the SPDR S&P 500 trust (SPY).
Elon for President
Elon was all over the news this week when news broke that he was reopening the Tesla Fremont factory despite restrictions. This act was viewed as heroic and as stupid by others. In my view, go Elon! Below is the daily chart of TSLA.
I am on the record of being bearish TSLA two weeks ago. I'll never hide a call here. I was wrong! What we see on the chart is obvious consolidation and higher lows being established. There is a lower high, but I chuck that out as FOMO buyers.
With volume in decline, along with price being supported by the 20 SMA and the appearance of an ascending triangle. The TSLA chart primed for continuation to the upside. The question now remains, how much upside?
Above, is a 4-hour chart of TSLA. Here, I place my proposed Elliott wave count. If you are not familiar, wave 4 consolidations tend to be triangular. TSLA is within a potential ascending triangle and could be setting up for one last push higher before a correction.
I think the TSLA chart will test and potentially break its all-time high. The 1000 psychological resistance could be a logical area where selling comes in strong. This morning I look to buy any dips. Bias: Bullish .
Zoom Remains a Leader
I have been watching ZM very closely over the past week and full disclosure, I have bought some stock as of yesterday. Sometimes simple is better. The chart below is ZM on the 4-hour.
Another ascending triangle . There are probably loads of other stocks with this same pattern but the reason why I like ZM and TSLA is because eyes are all on these companies. People want a piece of what is hot. If price ends up breaking out to the upside with only blue skies above... just use your imagination. Bias: Bullish .
Sorry Bears
The only explanation of what is happening in the stock market is irrational exuberance. Instead of fighting it, let's play it to our advantage. Below is the 4-hour chart of the SPY.
The buying off the low yesterday suggests that the interim low is in and the trend remains intact in favor of the bulls. More proof? The charts above. The market leaders have not retreated nearly as much as a bears would have wanted. It is simply too difficult to trade this market to the downside. Don't over think it. Bias: Bullish .
I'll be back later today with an analysis on the weekly candle close. Happy trading!
Zoom to end their call? Prospectus...A classic head and shoulders by the almighty Zoom. It's not unlikely that their run is coming to an end, but we could see a bit of upside before we suffer downside. I would expect a bit more reactionary price action before the main crash.
We have a textbook Head and Shoulders forming, with a consistent neckline in line with the hourly open. This has been a stock I've been following for a long time, and I've had the Head and Shoulders idea since the 24th April, or its second peak. It's very difficult to analyse stocks, as they tend to follow fundamnetals more - but I'm really confident on this one. It's not often that the H&S pattern fails, let alone reverses. We shall see how this plays out alongside the falling volume.
Be careful with this idea, as it could reverse for a second time. Place a stop loss where you can afford to take losses - I have placed a potential point of entry on the chart, but personally I will enter here - as I can afford to do so due to my level of margin. Trade responsibly. NFA
Zoom Communications (ZM) - Wedge Play - Low RiskZoom Communications has retested and is respecting the upper band of the ascending wedge-line, we can confidently take a short position with low risk. NASDAQ:ZM has had its fair share of negative publicity regarding recent data-breaches and is widely viewed as overpriced in terms of price-to-earnings.
Short Term Target: 132
Bottom Wedge Target: 116
ZOOM Communication Technical Analysis - ZMShort Term seems that there is an opportunity to go long.
Option A - Target price of 93 USD -based on Fibonacci Speedlines.
Option B - Target price of 180 USD
Fundamental Information that could impact on ZOOM.
Analyst mean Price of 120 USD has already been achieved.
(MAX between 160 and 200USD). The share price is overvalued almost of 80%.
Short ZM at 194They're going to pump ZM and trap late fomoers.
Short on top of bear flag.
Use upper daily bollinger band breaches on 2 and 3 std dev to pinpoint exact entry. I have a good feeling the band breaches are going to perfectly line up with the bear flag resistance on the run up to earnings.
Litecoin Hinting at Bitcoin's Next Move?Happy Bitcoin halving! If you haven't heard, Bitcoin underwent its third network halving, which means that now for every block discovered, only 6.25 Bitcoin will be rewarded. It is a great day to be a crypto enthusiast. Alright, let's get right to it.
So, U.S. markets continued to show strength at the start of the session and fade towards the end. I feel as though this is becoming a trend. What propped the market up? Apple, Inc. (AAPL). Apple is attempting to blow through resistance and is only 4% away from matching its all-time high. Apple is now a must watch the rest of the week. Now let's look at some charts I got my eye on: Zoom Video Communications, Inc., Litecoin, and Bitcoin.
Zooming to the Moon!
Zoom (ZM) is really setting up a pretty ascending triangle pattern. On the daily chart below you can see how ZM is now testing resistance for a third time in less than a month. Normally a bullish pattern, the ascending triangle target would be 227.
However, despite the beautiful set up. A breakout may be premature. Chaikin money flow (CMF) on the daily is lagging within the negative. I would feel more comfortable buying a retest of the triangle or if ZM pulls back toward 150. Nevertheless, this is a no brainer and an extremely bullish chart. Bias: Bullish .
Litecoin Hinting on Bitcoin Relief Rally?
Sometimes I turn to the altcoins to get clues on the next Bitcoin direction. It isn't a bad thing to do once in a while. Bitcoin is a tough asset to trade and any additional clues you can gather from the crypto space is a plus. Below is the Litecoin (LTC) daily chart.
Here, I am looking at LTC's support. It is now being tested for a third time. Sure, support should be weakening. I do eventually suspect this support to break, whether it is tonight or a month from now. If LTC can consolidate at this level I am confident Litecoin and Bitcoin will rally from this point.
Of course, we need to check out what the King is doing. Below is the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (BTC). Currently, it is very unclear. I posted earlier that there was an inverse head and shoulder bottom on the 1-hour chart. I warned that lower time frame patterns such as those tend to fail more often than not. Guess what? If failed.
Now, we can argue that there is a bear flag developing. Though, it may take into the evening for volatility to wane and create a more clear picture. Keep in mind, BTC > LTC when it comes to analysis. So for now my bias remains... Bias: Bearish .
Again, Happy Halving!
I bought my first Bitcoin back in February 2016. I will never forget how exciting it was to send my first transaction to an exchange and to begin my journey trading.
It is truly is a remarkable achievement that Satoshi Nakamoto accomplished and I am thankful to have met so many people within this space. Now, remember, no matter how bearish I get on Bitcoin I will always be a bull in my heart for the long haul! To the moon!
ZOOM Video Communication - Short term - GO SHORTShort Term go short
Long Term go long but wait for the right signal - Bullish Market on 1h, 4h or daily chart
Fundamental Analysis:
Facebook Issued Meet video conferencing free to all users, challenging Zoom.
Zoom Does not have 300M Daily participants but 300M people attending the meetings meaning that if a user has 10 Zoom meetings a day, that would count as 10 participants.
Zoom is also competing with technology heavyweights including Microsoft's Teams, Cisco's Webex and Alphabet's Google Meet.
Yesterday, during its earnings call, Microsoft claimed that Teams has over 75 million daily active users. Google Meet, on the other hand, says it is is gaining 3 million DAUs every day and topped the 100 million-mark in terms of meeting participants.